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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Data for Hadjimichael et al. - Multi-actor, multi-impact scenario discovery

Naming convention for each file is S[scenario_id]_[realization_id].parquet All realizations are generated as per the accompanying paper: Hadjimichael, A., Reed, P.M., Quinn, J.D, Vernon, C.R., Thurber, T., Multi-actor, multi-impact scenario discovery of consequential narrative storylines for human-natural systems planning. Earth's Future (In Review) Each .parquet file contains the following columns: 'structure_id' : StateMod structure ID data corresponds to 'year': simulation year 'month': simulation month 'demand': water demand in acre-feet 'shortage': water shortage in acre-feet 'river_outflow': streamflow in diversion location in acre-feet 'control_location': other structure or reason for shortage

Hadjimichael, Antonia↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scenario Discovery Analysis of Drivers of Solar and Wind Energy Transitions Through 2050

Deep human-Earth system uncertainties and strong multi-sector dynamics make it difficult to anticipate which conditions are most likely to lead to higher or lower adoption of renewable energy, and models project a broad range of future solar and wind energy shares across future scenarios. To elucidate these dynamics, we explore a large data set of scenarios simulated from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) and use scenario discovery to identify the most significant factors affecting solar and wind adoption by mid-century. We generated a data set of over 4,000 scenarios from GCAM by varying 12 different socioeconomic factors at high and low levels, including assumptions about future energy demand, resource costs, and fossil fuel emissions paths, as well as specific technology assumptions including wind and solar backup requirements and storage costs. Using scenario discovery, we assess the most important factors globally and regionally in creating high fractions of solar and wind energy and explore interconnected effects on other systems including water and non-CO 2 emissions. Globally and regionally, we found that solar and wind-related technology costs were the primary drivers of high wind and solar energy adoption, though a few regions depend heavily on other parameters like carbon capture and storage costs, population and gross domestic product trajectories, and fossil fuel costs. We also identify four key paths to high solar and wind energy by mid-century and discuss their tradeoffs in terms of other outcomes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scenario Storyline Discovery for Planning in Multi‐Actor Human‐Natural Systems Confronting Change

Scenarios have emerged as valuable tools in managing complex human-natural systems, but the traditional approach of limiting focus on a small number of predetermined scenarios can inadvertently miss consequential dynamics, extremes, and diverse stakeholder impacts. Exploratory modeling approaches have been developed to address these issues by exploring a wide range of possible futures and identifying those that yield consequential vulnerabilities. However, vulnerabilities are typically identified based on aggregate robustness measures that do not take full advantage of the richness of the underlying dynamics in the large ensembles of model simulations and can make it hard to identify key dynamics and/or storylines that can guide planning or further analyses. This study introduces the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced “forensic”): a scenario discovery framework that addresses these challenges by organizing and investigating consequential scenarios using hierarchical classification of diverse outcomes across actors, sectors, and scales, while also aiding in the selection of scenario storylines, based on system dynamics that drive consequential outcomes. We present an application of this framework to the Upper Colorado River Basin, focusing on decadal droughts and their water scarcity implications for the basin's diverse users and its obligations to downstream states through Lake Powell. We show how FRNSIC can explore alternative sets of impact metrics and drought dynamics and use them to identify drought scenario storylines, that can be used to inform future adaptation planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scenario storyline discovery for complex multi-actor human-natural systems

This poster was presented at the AGU Fall Meeting 2024. Abstract:Scenario analysis is a useful tool for assessing the impacts of future conditions or alternative strategies. However, the common practice of focusing on a small number of predetermined scenarios can limit our understanding of key uncertainties, and fail to represent diverse stakeholder impacts. Exploratory modeling approaches have been developed to address these issues by simulating a wide range of possible futures and system perspectives. A challenge with these approaches is that they often involve large ensemble experiments which limit interpretability and usability. We recently introduced the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced ``forensic''), a scenario discovery framework that helps users identify scenario storylines that capture key system dynamics and as well as important outcomes. In this poster presentation, we present training materials to support the generalizable application of the framework to other multi-actor systems with complex dynamics. Specifically, we will present a step-by-step methodological typology of tools and methods that can be used to generate and classify plausible states of the world on key metrics and consequential dynamics. The typology will also discuss potential implications of these choices and their applicability to different systems.

Colorado River↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large Ensemble Exploration of Global Energy Transitions Under National Emissions Pledges

Global climate goals require a transition to a deeply decarbonized energy system. Meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement through countries' nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies represents a complex problem with consequences across multiple systems shrouded by deep uncertainty. Robust, large-ensemble methods and analyses mapping a wide range of possible future states of the world are needed to help policymakers design effective strategies to meet emissions reduction goals. This study contributes a scenario discovery analysis applied to a large ensemble of 5,760 model realizations generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. Eleven energy-related uncertainties are systematically varied, representing national mitigation pledges, institutional factors, and techno-economic parameters, among others. The resulting ensemble maps how uncertainties impact common energy system metrics used to characterize national and global pathways toward deep decarbonization. Results show globally consistent but regionally variable energy transitions as measured by multiple metrics, including electricity costs and stranded assets. Larger economies and developing regions experience more severe economic outcomes across a broad sampling of uncertainty. The scale of CO 2 removal globally determines how much the energy system can continue to emit, but the relative role of different CO 2 removal options in meeting decarbonization goals varies across regions. Previous studies characterizing uncertainty have typically focused on a few scenarios, and other large-ensemble work has not (to our knowledge) combined this framework with national emissions pledges or institutional factors. Our results underscore the value of large-ensemble scenario discovery for decision support as countries begin to design strategies to meet their goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Representing Socio‐Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models

Abstract Socio‐economic development pathways and their implications for the environment are highly uncertain, and energy transitions will involve complex interactions among sectors. Here, traditional Monte Carlo analysis is paired with scenario discovery techniques to provide a richer portrait of these complexities. Modeled uncertain input variables include costs of advanced energy technologies, energy efficiency trends, fossil fuel resource availability, elasticities of substitution for labor, capital, and energy across economic sectors, population growth, and labor and capital productivity. The sampled values are simulated through a multi‐sector, multi‐region, recursively dynamic model of the world economy to explore a range of possible future outcomes. We find that many patterns of energy and technology development are possible for various long‐term environmental pathways and that sectoral output for most sectors is little affected through 2050 by the long‐term temperature target, but with tight constraints on emissions, emission intensities must fall much more rapidly. Scenario discovery techniques are applied to the large uncertainty ensembles to explore if there are prevailing storylines behind outcomes of interest. An illustrative investigation focused on different levels of economic growth shows many combinations of pathways and no single storyline emerging for a given economic outcome. This method can be extended to other outcomes of interest, exploring the nature of scenarios with both tail and median outcomes. Sampling from a Monte Carlo generated ensemble provides a rich set of scenarios to investigate, and potentially aids in avoiding heuristic biases in less structured scenario approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean

Future water scarcity is a global concern with significant impacts on the energy, water, and land (EWL) sectors. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are significant producers of agricultural goods consumed around the world, so disruptions resulting from land and water scarcity in LAC are a source of global supply chain risk. Understanding where water scarcity in LAC could occur and what could drive that scarcity to emerge is critical for strategic resource management and planning, both regionally and globally. Assessing future water scarcity impacts in LAC is challenging given the multisector dynamic interactions among the EWL sectors and the multiple uncertainties acting across different spatial scales. We use scenario discovery to explore the drivers of future water scarcity, considering assumptions related to climate, socioeconomics, and the EWL sectors. Understanding what factors drive uncertainty across outcomes can help stakeholders in targeting long-term solutions and future data collection efforts. To illuminate these dynamics, we use a database consisting of a large ensemble of scenarios representing diverse worlds simulated using the Global Change Analysis Model. We quantify future water scarcity and its economic impacts across the scenarios using three metrics: (1) physical water scarcity, (2) water price, and (3) crop profit. We find that physical water scarcity and water price are driven primarily by reservoir storage capacity assumptions, highlighting the importance of strategic water infrastructure development in maintaining future water availability and accessibility. Crop profit is driven by a combination of water supply and demand assumptions, which emphasizes the complex nature of EWL multisector dynamics. While most of LAC is poised to have abundant land and water resources available for development, water basins in Mexico and along the Pacific coast of South America experience high levels of severity and uncertainty across the future scenarios for at least one of the metrics. We find that the drivers of extreme scarcity vary spatially and across the metrics, further highlighting the heterogeneity of the region and the importance of considering multiple metrics to assess water scarcity vulnerability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Implications of a stop sector signal at the LHC

Naturalness arguments suggest that the stop sector is within reach of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). We investigate how the observation of a third generation squark signal could predict masses and discovery modes of other supersymmetric particles, or potentially test the Higgs boson mass relation and the validity of the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) at the high luminosity LHC. We illustrate these ideas in three distinct scenarios: discovery of a light stop, a sbottom signal in multileptons, and a signal of the second (heavier) stop in boosted dibosons.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

COZMIC. III. Cosmological Zoom-in Simulations of Self-interacting Dark Matter with Suppressed Initial Conditions

We present eight cosmological dark matter (DM)-only zoom-in simulations of a Milky Way–like system that include suppression of the linear matter power spectrum P(k), and/or velocity-dependent DM self-interactions, as the third installment of the COZMIC suite. We consider a model featuring a massive dark photon that mediates DM self-interactions and decays into massless dark fermions. The dark photon and dark fermions suppress linear matter perturbations, resulting in dark acoustic oscillations in P(k), which ultimately affect dwarf galaxy scales. The model also features a velocity-dependent elastic self-interaction between DM particles (SIDM), with a cross section that can alleviate small-scale structure anomalies. For the first time, our simulations test the impact of P(k) suppression on gravothermal evolution in an SIDM scenario that leads to core collapse in (sub)halos with present-day virial masses below ≈10 9 M ⊙ . In simulations with P(k) suppression and self-interactions, the lack of low-mass (sub)halos and the delayed growth of structure reduce the fraction of core-collapsed systems relative to SIDM simulations without P(k) suppression. In particular, P(k) suppression that saturates current warm DM constraints almost entirely erases core collapse in isolated halos. Models with less extreme P(k) suppression produce core collapse in ≈20% of subhalos and ≈5% of isolated halos above 10 8 M ⊙ , and also increase the abundance of extremely low-concentration isolated low-mass halos relative to SIDM. These results reveal a complex interplay between early and late-Universe DM physics, revealing new discovery scenarios in the context of upcoming small-scale structure measurements.

dark matter↗
DOE OSTI2025

Designing robust energy policy packages under deep uncertainty: A multi-metric decision support framework

The complexity of transitioning to sustainable energy systems requires policy frameworks capable of balancing multiple objectives while addressing deep uncertainty. However, existing approaches often lack systematic methods to identify combinations of policy levers that remain effective across a wide range of uncertain futures. This paper presents a novel decision support framework that guides the selection of robust policy packages based on their performance across multiple objectives under uncertainty. Our method leverages a large ensemble of scenarios and applies scenario discovery techniques to identify influential policy levers. Here, we introduce new indicators to assess the robustness of policies by evaluating their ability to mitigate adverse outcomes across metrics. These indicators support an iterative process to build a robust policy package. Finally, we map the technological and energy pathways associated with the robust policy package by leveraging an energy system optimization model. We illustrate the application of this framework to the Spanish energy system, providing insights into how specific combinations of policy levers shape decarbonization pathways under uncertainty.

Decision-support method↗
DOE OSTI2018

Exploring How Changing Monsoonal Dynamics and Human Pressures Challenge Multireservoir Management for Flood Protection, Hydropower Production, and Agricultural Water Supply

Abstract Multireservoir systems require robust and adaptive control policies capable of managing hydroclimatic variability and human demands across a range of time scales. This is especially true for river basins with high intraannual and interannual variability, such as monsoonal systems that need to buffer against seasonal droughts while also managing extreme floods. Moreover, the timing, intensity, duration, and frequency of these hydrologic extremes may evolve with deeply uncertain changes in socioeconomic and climatic pressures. This study contributes an innovative method for exploring how possible changes in the timing and magnitude of the monsoonal cycle impact the robustness of reservoir operating policies designed assuming stationary hydrologic and socioeconomic conditions. We illustrate this analysis on the Red River basin in Vietnam, where reservoirs and dams serve as important sources of hydropower production, multisectoral water supply, and flood protection for the capital city of Hanoi. Applying our scenario discovery approach, we find that reservoir operations designed assuming stationarity provide robust hydropower performance in the Red River but that increased mean streamflow, amplification of the within‐year monsoonal cycle, and increased interannual variability all threaten their ability to manage flood risk. Additionally, increased agricultural water demands can only be tolerated if they are accompanied by greater mean flow, exacerbating food‐flood trade‐offs in the basin. These findings highlight the importance of exploring the impacts of a wide range of deeply uncertain socioeconomic and hydrologic factors when evaluating system robustness in monsoonal river basins, considering in particular both lower‐order moments of annual streamflow and intraannual monsoonal behavior.

Quinn, J. D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Analysis in Multi‐Sector Systems: Considerations for Risk Analysis, Projection, and Planning for Complex Systems

Abstract Simulation models of multi‐sector systems are increasingly used to understand societal resilience to climate and economic shocks and change. However, multi‐sector systems are also subject to numerous uncertainties that prevent the direct application of simulation models for prediction and planning, particularly when extrapolating past behavior to a nonstationary future. Recent studies have developed a combination of methods to characterize, attribute, and quantify these uncertainties for both single‐ and multi‐sector systems. Here, we review challenges and complications to the idealized goal of fully quantifying all uncertainties in a multi‐sector model and their interactions with policy design as they emerge at different stages of analysis: (a) inference and model calibration; (b) projecting future outcomes; and (c) scenario discovery and identification of risk regimes. We also identify potential methods and research opportunities to help navigate the tradeoffs inherent in uncertainty analyses for complex systems. During this discussion, we provide a classification of uncertainty types and discuss model coupling frameworks to support interdisciplinary collaboration on multi‐sector dynamics (MSD) research. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for best practices to ensure that MSD research can be properly contextualized with respect to the underlying uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Progress in Simulated Water Well Performance on Mars

Recent studies of human Mars missions considered the impacts of an abundant supply of in-situ, accessible water on these mission scenarios. Discovery of exposed water ice scarps in Martian mid-latitudes has bolstered the evidence for massive amounts of almost pure water in buried deposits in regions considered candidates for these future human missions. This paper describes progress towards adapting a long-standing terrestrial technique for accessing and extracting water from these mid-latitude sources of ice. This approach relies on mechanical drills to access the ice through overlying debris. Once the ice layer has been reached, a technique known as a Rodriguez Well, or Rodwell, is used to melt the ice, store the resulting water in a subsurface cavity until needed, and then pump the water to the surface for use. Previous work by the authors utilized a computer simulation to predict the performance of a Martian Rodwell. This simulation was originally developed to predict performance in terrestrial Polar Regions. Whereas the basic approach is appropriate for a similar well on Mars, several parameters had been empirically derived and required experiments simulating the Martian environment to determine the values appropriate for a Martian Rodwell simulation. These experiments have now been completed and preliminary values have been determined for the empirical parameters. Test results are consistent with a dimensionless Sh(Ra) correlation developed by Bower and Saylor (2009) and based on lab tests of water evaporating from a pool into a large air chamber. They are also consistent with correlations derived by Ingersoll (1970) and by Hecht (2002), based on natural-convection heat transfer. Each of these earlier correlations found Sh~Ra1/3, with the 1/3rd power characteristic of large Ra where the boundary layer over the pool surface is turbulent. A somewhat surprising result was that this power-law was found to extend into a range of Ra where laminar flow would be expected. Another surprising result was found in that instead of following established correlations for natural-convection heat transfer over flat plates, the dimensionless heat-transfer rates (Nu) were much larger and approximately independent of Ra. This suggests that mass transfer from the pool enhances convective heat transfer, possibly by enhanced mixing in the boundary layer. Although this possibility has been suggested in the literature, if it is proven to be true under these conditions it could play an important role in the use of a Rodwell on Mars, where evaporative mass transfer is enhanced relative to terrestrial wells.

Human Mars Mission↗
DOE OSTI2018

Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework’s abstraction of “challenges to mitigation” and “challenges to adaptation” to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support “bottom-up” scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Framework for Multisector Scenarios of Outcomes for Well-Being and Resilience

Shared community scenarios of societal and environmental system changes have underpinned a broad range of research and assessment studies over the past several decades. These scenarios have largely aimed to address specific questions within broad issue areas like climate change or biodiversity and generally provided information on the drivers of change. The consequences of those drivers, such as impacts on society and policy responses, have tended to be left to the research community to investigate, using scenarios of drivers as inputs to their studies, producing projections of a disparate set of relevant output metrics. While this approach has had many benefits, it has fallen short of producing a robust, comparable literature describing outcomes across studies in common metrics. We argue that new scenarios are needed that extend current approaches to be organized around common outcome metrics for the well-being and resilience of society and ecosystems. We propose an approach that would focus on agreed upon outcomes for well-being and resilience as well as critical drivers of change, cut across issues and scales in multiple sectors, and draw on new systematic methods of scenario generation and discovery to highlight scenarios that are most critical in understanding societal risks and responding to them. Research derived from this outcome-based scenario development approach would facilitate improved assessment of risks of and responses to a range of stressors and the multi-sector interactions they generate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Summarizing experimental sensitivities of collider experiments to dark matter models and comparison to other experiments

Comparisons of the coverage of current and proposed dark matter searches can help us to understand the context in which a discovery of particle dark matter would be made. In some scenarios, a discovery could be reinforced by information from multiple, complementary types of experiments; in others, only one experiment would see a signal, giving only a partial, more ambiguous picture; in still others, no experiment would be sensitive and new approaches would be needed. In this whitepaper, we present an update to a similar study performed for the European Strategy Briefing Book performed within the dark matter at the Energy Frontier (EF10) Snowmass Topical Group We take as a starting point a set of projections for future collider facilities and a method of graphical comparisons routinely performed for LHC DM searches using simplified models recommended by the LHC Dark Matter Working Group and also used for the BSM and dark matter chapters of the European Strategy Briefing Book. These comparisons can also serve as launching point for cross-frontier discussions about dark matter complementarity.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Containers on Switches: A Cluster School Experience

Network switches, such as those from Arista and Mellanox, often have underutilized computational resources in the form of built-in processors and memory. By leveraging these untapped resources, we can optimize functionality and efficiency of computational cluster networks. Our research focuses on deploying containers directly onto these switches to execute various auxiliary tasks ranging from metric logging to system-wide management via post-boot configuration. By doing so, we can significantly enchance the capabilities of the cluster without the need for additional dedicated hardware. Our research involved five distinct scenarios where switch utilization could have a profound impact on HPC Clusters: run cloud-init services via link-local connection; configuring a Telegraf container to export metrics; deploying a caching proxy; creating a reconfigurable IPv6 DHCP/DNS provider for VLAN; and implementing a client detection with Magellan discovery. These scenarios were containerized with podman and docker, and tested both physically on the switch virtually on a QEMU VM both running SONiC OS. Testing and findings indicate that network switches can indeed be used for these scenarios. They offer a wide range of possibilities beyond these applications. They run as expected as containers on the switches, and although there were some minor issues, work-arounds were implemented. Overall, this is a positive result that can be further explored with more scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗