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DOE OSTI2020

Scenario Grouping and Decomposition Algorithms for Chance-Constrained Programs

A lower bound for a finite-scenario-based chance-constrained program is the quantile value corresponding to the sorted optimal objective values of scenario subproblems. This quantile bound can be improved by grouping subsets of scenarios at the expense of solving larger subproblems. The quality of the bound depends on how the scenarios are grouped. In this paper, we formulate a mixed-integer bilevel program that optimally groups scenarios to tighten the quantile bounds. For general chance-constrained programs, we propose a branch-and-cut algorithm to optimize the bilevel program, and for chance-constrained linear programs, a mixed-integer linear-programming reformulation is derived. Here, we also propose several heuristics for grouping similar or dissimilar scenarios. Our computational results demonstrate that optimal grouping bounds are much tighter than heuristic bounds, resulting in smaller root-node gaps and better performance of scenario decomposition for solving chance-constrained 0-1 programs. Also, the optimal grouping bounds can be greatly strengthened using larger group size.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1981

Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

Sherwin, P.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Test Vector Development for Verification and Validation of Heavy-Duty Autonomous Vehicle Operations

The current focus in the ongoing development of autonomous driving systems (ADS) for heavy duty vehicles is that of vehicle operational safety. To this end, developers and researchers alike are working towards a complete understanding of the operating environments and conditions that autonomous vehicles are subject to during their mission. This understanding is critical to the testing and validation phases of the development of autonomous vehicles and allows for the identification of both the nominal and edge case scenarios encountered by these systems. Previous work by the authors saw the development of a comprehensive scenario generation framework to identify an operating domain specification (ODS), or external and internal conditions an autonomous driving system can expect to encounter on its mission to form critical scenario groups for autonomous vehicle testing and validating using statistical patterns, clustering, and correlation. Continuing this prior work, this paper focuses on the generation of test cases based on the critical scenarios identified that can be used to prioritize either the most common nominal driving scenarios or the least common severe driving scenarios. These test cases can then be used validate, through simulation or real-world testing, the operating design domain (ODD) for a generalized driving mission and built upon to identify spatial and temporal impacts on the driving mission of an autonomous vehicle.

Siekmann, Adam↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multi-machine validation of plasma initiation modelling and prospects for future devices: Predicting plasma initiation using only hardware design and control room input data

This paper reports on the generic prediction capability of full electromagnetic plasma initiation modelling with DYON, which was carried out for the first time in fusion research by the joint modelling of the International Tokamak Physics Activity—Integrating Operation Scenario group. The following devices were included in the experiment database: VEST (spherical torus, copper coils, Stainless steel wall, R/a = 0.3 m/0.2 m, V v = 3.7 m 3 ), MAST-U (spherical torus, copper coils, C wall, R/a = 0.7 m/0.5 m, V v = 55 m 3 ), EAST (conventional tokamak, superconducting coils, metallic wall, R/a = 1.85 m/0.5 m, V v = 38 m 3 ), DIII-D (conventional tokamak, copper coils, C wall, R/a = 1.67 m/0.65 m, V v = 35 m 3 ), and KSTAR (conventional tokamak, superconducting coils, C wall, R/a = 1.8 m/0.5 m, V v = 55 m 3 ). Despite the different hardware features of the devices, the required operating spaces of the loop voltage induction and prefill gas pressure for inductive plasma initiation in each device were successfully reproduced by the predictive simulations with DYON using only the individual hardware design and the control room input data for each discharge. This successful validation across multiple machines demonstrates that the full electromagnetic DYON modelling can capture the essential physics of inductive plasma initiation. The simulation settings commonly employed for all modelling and the modifications necessary to account for the discrepancies between individual devices are reported. Predictions for ITER based on the multi-machine validation indicate that a wide range of prefill gas pressures exists for the Townsend breakdown and the plasma burn-through (0.01–1.5 mPa).

DYON↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

EMU CO2 Washout Comparative Assessments for the HAB/HAP-E in support of EVA 80

After water was reported in the EMU helmet during ISS US EVA-80, mitigation strategies were created to attempt to arrest the motion of any droplets that enter the helmet for future Extravehicular Activities (EVAs). This included adding absorbent materials into the interior of the helmet. But before a mitigation strategy can be implemented, it must first be proven to be safe. Towards this aim, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to assess the effect that the absorbent material has on the concentration of carbon dioxide in the EMU helmet. Within a small, closed volume such as a helmet, some amount of the carbon dioxide produced by the suit-wearer will be re-inhaled before being cleared from the oral-nasal region. The ability of the suit to remove carbon dioxide is referred to as CO2 washout. Pathological levels of inhaled CO2 (hypercapnia) are associated with dizziness, fatigue, and headaches. The CFD model was built in ANSYS Fluent and adapted to assess CO2 washout in a variety of scenarios grouped into three categories: purge cases, varying metabolic rates, and varying sorbent material configurations. The presence of the sorbent material did not prove detrimental to CO2 washout in the helmet.

Moses Navarro↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

EMU CO2 Washout Comparative Assessments for the HAB/HAP-E in Support of EVA 80

After water was reported in the Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) helmet during ISS US EVA 80, mitigation strategies were created to attempt to arrest the motion of any droplets that enter the helmet for future Extravehicular Activities (EVAs). This included adding absorbent materials into the interior of the helmet. But before a mitigation strategy can be implemented, it must first be proven to be safe. Towards this aim, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to assess the effect that the absorbent material has on the concentration of carbon dioxide in the EMU helmet. Within a small, closed volume such as a helmet, some amount of the carbon dioxide produced by the suit-wearer will be re-inhaled before being cleared from the oral-nasal region. The ability of the suit to remove carbon dioxide is referred to as CO2 washout. Pathological levels of inhaled CO2 (hypercapnia) are associated with dizziness, fatigue, and headaches. The CFD model was built in ANSYS Fluent and adapted to assess CO2 washout in a variety of scenarios grouped into three categories: ventilation cases, varying metabolic rates, and varying sorbent material configurations. The presence of the sorbent material did not prove detrimental to CO2 washout in the helmet.

Moses Navarro↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

EMU CO2 Washout Comparative Assessments for the HAB/HAP-E in Support of EVA 80

Moses Navarro↗

NASA NTRS2008

Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum visibility across the project. One key aspect is that the tool was built for a scenario process that accounts for stakeholder input, review, comment, and concurrence. By creating well-designed opportunities for stakeholder input and concurrence and by making the scenario content easily accessible to all project personnel, we maximize the opportunities for stakeholders to both understand and agree on the concepts for how their mission is to be carried out.

Boyles, Carole A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Computational Aerodynamics of Shuttle Orbiter Damage Scenarios in Support of the Columbia Accident Investigation

In support of the Columbia Accident Investigation, inviscid computations of the aerodynamic characteristics for various Shuttle Orbiter damage scenarios were performed using the FELISA unstructured CFD solver. Computed delta aerodynamics were compared with the reconstructed delta aerodynamics in order to postulate a progression of damage through the flight trajectory. By performing computations at hypervelocity flight and CF4 tunnel conditions, a bridge was provided between wind tunnel testing in Langley's 20-Inch CF4 facility and the flight environment experienced by Columbia during re-entry. The rapid modeling capability of the unstructured methodology allowed the computational effort to keep pace with the wind tunnel and, at times, guide the wind tunnel efforts. These computations provided a detailed view of the flowfield characteristics and the contribution of orbiter components (such as the vertical tail and wing) to aerodynamic forces and moments that were unavailable from wind tunnel testing. The damage scenarios are grouped into three categories. Initially, single and multiple missing full RCC panels were analyzed to determine the effect of damage location and magnitude on the aerodynamics. Next is a series of cases with progressive damage, increasing in severity, in the region of RCC panel 9. The final group is a set of wing leading edge and windward surface deformations that model possible structural deformation of the wing skin due to internal heating of the wing structure. By matching the aerodynamics from selected damage scenarios to the reconstructed flight aerodynamics, a progression of damage that is consistent with the flight data, debris forensics, and wind tunnel data is postulated.

Bibb, Karen L.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Valuing Ecosystems in Equitable Energy Transition Planning

In this report we explore three areas of research and practice needed to scale clean energy sustainably: 1) advancing the predictive science to quantify positive and negative outcomes of energy development for the wellbeing of communities, environments, and disadvantaged groups; 2) scenario design using this science to shape renewable energy solutions for nation-wide decarbonization while delivering tangible, local benefits; and 3) participatory science-policy processes to understand what people want for the places where they live and work and how incorporating renewable energy can help or hinder their goals. Together these three components – quantifying social-ecological values, scenario design, and participatory processes – form the basis for a framework for valuing ecosystems to inform a more equitable energy transition.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2011

An Integrated Musculoskeletal Countermeasure Battery for Long-Duration Lunar Missions

During extended periods of skeletal unloading, losses in strength and density of the proximal femur will occur. In long-duration spaceflight, resistive exercise is used to replace the normal loads exerted on the spine and hip. At the present time, there is no conclusive evidence that hip bone loss has been prevented in this scenario. Our group has recently developed and clinically evaluated a multifunctional exercise system, the Combined Countermeasure Device (CCD). The CCD comprises a low-footprint Stuart Platform for lower-body resistance exercise and balance training, and a cardiovascular exercise bicycle. A consideration for resistance exercise was targeting of the hip abductor and adductor muscles, which attach directly at the hip and which should subject it to the largest loads. In our training study, we found that CCD exercise increased hip adductor and abductor strength, and modeling results suggest that this exercise exerts forces on the hip of approx. 4-6 body weights at 1g, compared to forces of approx.2.5 body weight y squatting exercise. In our current study, we hypothesize that abductor and adductor exercise will increase the density and strength of the proximal femur.

Lang, T. F.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Discerning the thermodynamic feasibility of the spontaneous coexistence of multiple functional vegetation groups

Can the Second Law of Thermodynamics explain why ecosystems naturally organize into a complex structure composed of multiple vegetation species and functional groups? Ecosystem structure, which refers to the number and type of plant functional groups, is the result of self-organization, or the spontaneous emergence of order from random fluctuations. By considering ecosystems as open thermodynamic systems, we model and study these fluctuations of throughput signatures on short timescales to determine the drivers and characteristics of ecosystem structure. This diagnostic approach allows us to use fluxes of energy and entropy to calculate an ecosystem’s estimated work and understand the thermodynamic behavior of the system. We use a multi-layer canopy-root-soil model to calculate the energy and entropy fluxes of different scenarios for field sites across various climates. At each site, scenarios comprised of native individual plant functional groups and a coexisting multi-group composition scenario including all functional groups observed at the site are compared. Ecosystem-scale calculations demonstrate that entropy fluxes and work efficiency—the work performed for the amount of radiation entering the ecosystem—are greatest in the multi-group scenario when its leaf area is significantly larger than each of its individual functional groups. Thus, we conclude that ecosystems self-organize towards the vegetation structure with the greatest outgoing entropy flux and work efficiency, resulting in the coexistence of multiple functional groups and performing the maximum amount of work within the constraints of locally available energy, water, and nutrients.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2020

Chandra and XMM-Newton Observations of A2256: Cold Fronts, Merger Shocks, and Constraint on the IC Emission

We present the results of deep Chandra and XMM-Newton observations of a complex merging galaxy cluster Abell 2256 (A2256) that hosts a spectacular radio relic (RR). The temperature and metallicity maps show clear evidence of a merger between the western subcluster (SC) and the primary cluster (PC). We detect five X-ray surface brightness edges. Three of them near the cluster center are cold fronts (CFs): CF1 is associated with the infalling SC; CF2 is located in the east of the PC; and CF3 is to the west of the PC core. The other two edges at cluster outskirts are shock fronts(SFs): SF1 near the RR in the NW has Mach numbers derived from the temperature and the density jumps, respectively, of MT=1.62±0.12 and Mρ=1.23±0.06; SF2 in the SE has MT=1.54±0.05 and Mρ=1.16±0.13. In the region of the RR, there is no evidence for the correlation between X-ray and radio substructures, from which we estimate an upper limit for the inverse-Compton emission, and therefore set a lower limit on the magnetic field (∼450 kpc from PC center) of B>1.0μG for a single power-law electron spectrum or B>0.4μG for a broken power-law electron spectrum. We propose a merger scenario including a PC, an SC, and a group. Our merger scenario accounts for the X-ray edges, diffuse radio features, and galaxy kinematics, as well as projection effects.

Chong Ge↗

NASA NTRS2020

Chandra and XMM-Newton Observations of A2256: Cold Fronts, Merger Shocks, and Constraint on the IC Emission

We present the results of deep Chandra and XMM-Newton observations of a complex merging galaxy cluster Abell 2256 (A2256) that hosts a spectacular radio relic (RR).The temperature and metallicity maps show clear evidence of a merger between the western subcluster (SC) and the primary cluster (PC). We detect five X-ray surface brightness edges. Three of them near the cluster center are cold fronts (CFs): CF1is associated with the infalling SC; CF2 is located in the east of the PC; and CF3 is to the west of the PC core. The other two edges at cluster outskirts are shock fronts(SFs): SF1 near the RR in the NW has Mach numbers derived from the temperature and the density jumps, respectively, of MT=1.62±0.12andMρ=1.23±0.06; SF2 in the SE has MT=1.54±0.05andMρ=1.16±0.13. In the region of the RR, there is no evidence for the correlation between X-ray and radio substructures, from which we estimate an upper limit for the inverse-Compton emission, and therefore set a lower limit on the magnetic field (∼450 kpc from PC center) of B>1.0μG for a single power-law electron spectrum or B>0.4μG for a broken power-law electron spectrum. We propose a merger scenario including a PC, an SC, and a group. Our merger scenario accounts for the X-ray edges, diffuse radio features, and galaxy kinematics, as well as projection effects.

Chong Ge↗

NASA NTRS2016

Accuracy of RT Code SORD for Realistic Atmospheric Profiles

We discuss accuracy of our recently developed RT code SORD using 2 benchmark scenarios published by the IPRT group in 2015. These scenarios define atmospheres with a complicate dependence of scattering and absorption properties over height (profile). Equal step, dh=1km, is assumed in the profiles. We developed subroutines that split such atmospheres into layers of the same optical thickness, d tau. We provide full text of the subroutines with comments in Appendix. The d tau is a step for vertical integration in the method of successive orders. Modification of the input profiles from "equal step over h" to "equal step over tau" changes input for RT simulations. This may cause errors at or above the acceptable level of the measurement uncertainty. We show errors of the RT code SORD for both intensity and polarization. In addition to that, using our discrete ordinates RT code IPOL, we discuss one more IPRT scenario, in which changes in height profile indeed cause unacceptable errors. Clear understanding of source and magnitude of these errors is important, e.g. for the AERONET retrieval algorithm. SORD is available from ftp://maiac.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/skorkin/SORD_IP_16B/ or by email request from the first author.

polarization↗

NASA NTRS1986

Communications platform payload definition study

Large geostationary communications platforms were investigated in a number of studies since 1974 as a possible means to more effectively utilize the geostationary arc and electromagnetic spectrum and to reduce overall satellite communications system costs. The commercial feasibility of various communications platform payload concepts circa 1998 was addressed. Promising payload concepts were defined, recurring costs were estimated, and critical technologies needed to enable eventual commercialization were identified. Ten communications service aggregation scenarios describing potential groupings of service were developed for a range of conditions. Payload concepts were defined for four of these scenarios: (1) Land Mobile Satellite Service (LMSS) meets 100% of Contiguous United States (CONUS) plus Canada demand with a single platform; (2) Fixed Satellite Service (FSS) (trunking + Customer Premises Service (CPS)), meet 20% of CONUS demand;(3) FSS (trunking + CPS + video distribution), 10 to 13% of CONUS demand; and (4) FSS (20% of demand) + Inter Satellite Links (ISL) + Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS)/Tracking and Data Acquisition System (TDAS) Data Distribution.

Clopp, H. W.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Communications platform payload definition study, executive summary

Large geostationary communications platforms have been investigated in a number of studies since 1974 as a possible means to more effectively utilize the geostationary orbital arc and electromagnetic spectrum and to reduce overall satellite communications system costs. This NASA Lewis sponsored study addresses the commercial feasibility of various communications platform payload concepts circa 1998. It defines promising payload concepts, estimates recurring costs and identifies critical technologies needed to permit eventual commercialization. Ten communications service aggregation scenarios describing potential groupings of services were developed for a range of conditions. Payload concepts were defined for four of these scenarios: (1) Land Mobile Satellite Service (LMSS), meet 100% of CONUS plus Canada demand with a single platform; (2) Fixed Satellite Service (FSS) (Trunking + Customer Premises Service (CPS), meet 20% of CONUS demands; (3) FSS (Trunking + video distribution), 10 to 13% of CONUS demand; and (4) FSS (20% of demand) + Inter Satellite Links (ISL) + TDRSS/TDAS Data Distribution.

Clopp, H. W.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrated operation scenarios: Chapter 6 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

Here we report the progress of the development and optimization of operational scenarios for ITER and beyond, focusing upon baseline, hybrid, and steady-state scenarios since 2007. This includes advancements made by the integrated operation scenarios (IOS) topical group of the international tokamak physical activity as well as contributions from the broader tokamak community. The key area of research involves developing IOSs that encompass tokamak physics, operation, and technology by utilizing integrated modeling and control strategies. This requires leveraging available actuators to simultaneously control plasma position and shape, MHD activities that could lead to disruptions, transport, plasma-wall interaction and power exhaust, fuel cycle, fusion burn, and tritium breeding. The control extends from the plasma initiation phase, through the current ramp-up, flattop, start and end of the fusion burn, and current ramp-down, to the plasma termination phase. A review of the currently developed scenarios and modeling is provided in terms of (i) optimizing plasma initiation in ITER, (ii) preparing for the low activation phase to fully commission all tokamak systems and establish and validate physics and scenario conditions in preparation for deuterim-tritium (DT) operation, (iii) developing and preparing baseline and hybrid scenarios to demonstrate the feasibility of achieving these regimes within device constraints, (iv) exploring steady-state scenarios to meet ITER’s steady-state goals, (v) evaluating and preparing actuators for ITER, (vi) developing integrated control solutions using shared actuators. The most notable achievements include; (i) the development of ITER demonstration discharges by matching various dimensionless parameters, (ii) the development of scenarios in an ITER-like tungsten environment and DT operation, and (iii) the development of scenarios in superconducting tokamaks, enabling long-pulse operations with similar coil constraints to ITER. Along with these significant achievements, outstanding issues and recommendations for further research and development are provided. Importantly, this study goes beyond simply updating the ITER Physics Basis; it carries profound implications for the broader field of burning plasma research, offering valuable insights and guidance for the next generation of fusion experiments and devices.

ITER↗