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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

BSM (Bioenergy Scenario Model) 2023 FKA: Biomass Scenario Model [SWR-09-09]

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Bioenergy Technologies Office and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed the BSM (Bioenergy Scenario model) to explore the development of a U.S. biofuels industry. The BSM is a system dynamics model built on the STELLA software platform. The model represents the dynamic interactions of the major sectors of the biofuels industry—feedstock production, feedstock logistics, biomass to biofuels conversion, and biofuels end use, including fuels inventory, dispensing, distribution, fuel use, and the vehicle fleet. The BSM represents contextual aspects of the developing biofuels industry, including investment in new biomass to biofuel conversion technologies, competition from petroleum fuels, vehicle demand for biofuels, and various government policies, using all of these to simulate the development of the industry. The purpose of the BSM is to generate and explore plausible scenarios for the evolution of a biofuels industry in the United States, and as a high-level system model it is not designed for precise, quantitative forecasting. Instead, it is best used to (1) analyze and evaluate alternate policies; (2) generate scenarios; (3) identify high-impact levers and bottlenecks to system evolution; and (4) seed focused discussion among policymakers, analysts, and stakeholders.

Bush, Brian↗
NASA NTRS2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 °C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 °C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.d-2090s.

Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Abstract. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 ∘C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Internal consistency and diversity scenario development: A comparative framework to evaluate energy model scenarios

Energy modeling frameworks and scenario analysis help us explore the potential impact of our actions and uncertainties in future energy systems. Despite their importance, there is no systematic procedure for evaluating the scenario development process. In a literature review, we identify two core elements of the scenario development process: internal consistency and diversity which are oftentimes missing from scenarios. Here, to address this gap, we create the Internal consistency and Diversity Scenario Development (IDSD) comparative framework which aims to assess the feasibility and diversity of scenarios for a given energy model. With this framework, we review commonly used energy models and demonstrate our framework on their scenarios. The IDSD comparative framework can serve several purposes absent from previous scenario development work by aiding energy modelers and report writers in crafting high-quality scenarios. First, the IDSD is a reflective tool which can improve the quality of the scenario development process, enabling a comparative assessment of energy models and scenarios. Second, the IDSD can provide guidance to modeling frameworks with existing scenarios and those still in development; this feedback will enable modelers to improve the development and the communication of the limitations of their scenarios. Third, this study has highlighted areas for improvement in the scenario development of some commonly used energy model frameworks. Finally, there is a complete lack of explanation regarding the stakeholder selection process. Addressing these identified items could increase opportunities for advanced energy technology uptake and improve our options for achieving a more resilient energy system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Validated Set of MIDAS V5 Task Network Model Scenarios to Evaluate Nextgen Closely Spaced Parallel Operations Concepts

The Closely Spaced Parallel Operations (CSPO) scenario is a complex, human performance model scenario that tested alternate operator roles and responsibilities to a series of off-nominal operations on approach and landing (see Gore, Hooey, Mahlstedt, Foyle, 2013). The model links together the procedures, equipment, crewstation, and external environment to produce predictions of operator performance in response to Next Generation system designs, like those expected in the National Airspaces NextGen concepts. The task analysis that is contained in the present report comes from the task analysis window in the MIDAS software. These tasks link definitions and states for equipment components, environmental features as well as operational contexts. The current task analysis culminated in 3300 tasks that included over 1000 Subject Matter Expert (SME)-vetted, re-usable procedural sets for three critical phases of flight; the Descent, Approach, and Land procedural sets (see Gore et al., 2011 for a description of the development of the tasks included in the model; Gore, Hooey, Mahlstedt, Foyle, 2013 for a description of the model, and its results; Hooey, Gore, Mahlstedt, Foyle, 2013 for a description of the guidelines that were generated from the models results; Gore, Hooey, Foyle, 2012 for a description of the models implementation and its settings). The rollout, after landing checks, taxi to gate and arrive at gate illustrated in Figure 1 were not used in the approach and divert scenarios exercised. The other networks in Figure 1 set up appropriate context settings for the flight deck.The current report presents the models task decomposition from the tophighest level and decomposes it to finer-grained levels. The first task that is completed by the model is to set all of the initial settings for the scenario runs included in the model (network 75 in Figure 1). This initialization process also resets the CAD graphic files contained with MIDAS, as well as the embedded operator models that comprise MIDAS. Following the initial settings, the model progresses to begin the first tasks required of the two flight deck operators, the Captain (CA) and the First Officer (FO). The task sets will initialize operator specific settings prior to loading all of the alerts, probes, and other events that occur in the scenario. As a note, the CA and FO were terms used in developing this model but the CA can also be thought of as the Pilot Flying (PF), while the FO can be considered the Pilot-Not-Flying (PNF)or Pilot Monitoring (PM). As such, the document refers to the operators as PFCA and PNFFO respectively.

task network model↗
NASA NTRS2018

Climate Shifts Within Major Agricultural Seasons for +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds: HAPPI Projections and AgMIP Modeling Scenarios

This study compares climate changes in major agricultural regions and current agricultural seasons associated with global warming of +1.5 or +2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions. It describes the generation of climate scenarios for agricultural modeling applications conducted as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments. Climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts project (HAPPI) are largely consistent with transient scenarios extracted from RCP4.5 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Focusing on food and agricultural systems and top-producing breadbaskets in particular, we distinguish maize, rice, wheat, and soy season changes from global annual mean climate changes. Many agricultural regions warm at a rate that is faster than the global mean surface temperature (including oceans) but slower than the mean land surface temperature, leading to regional warming that exceeds 0.5 °C between the +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds. Agricultural growing seasons warm at a pace slightly behind the annual temperature trends in most regions, while precipitation increases slightly ahead of the annual rate. Rice cultivation regions show reduced warming as they are concentrated where monsoon rainfall is projected to intensify, although projections are influenced by Asian aerosol loading in climate mitigation scenarios. Compared to CMIP5, HAPPI slightly underestimates the CO2 concentration that corresponds to the +1.5 °C World but overestimates the CO2 concentration for the +2.0 °C World, which means that HAPPI scenarios may also lead to an overestimate in the beneficial effects of CO2 on crops in the +2.0 °C World. HAPPI enables detailed analysis of the shifting distribution of extreme growing season temperatures and precipitation, highlighting widespread increases in extreme heat seasons and heightened skewness toward hot seasons in the tropics. Shifts in the probability of extreme drought seasons generally tracked median precipitation changes; however, some regions skewed toward drought conditions even where median precipitation changes were small. Together, these findings highlight unique seasonal and agricultural region changes in the +1.5 °C and +2.0 °C worlds for adaptation planning in these climate stabilization targets.

Alexander C. Ruane↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimated attribution of the RFS program on soybean biodiesel in the U.S. using the bioenergy scenario model

Biofuels are supported by various governmental policies in the U.S. and globally as an alternative transportation fuel for environmental, geopolitical, and economic reasons. Much debate surrounds the effectiveness of these policies as well as the overall net environmental effect of increased biofuels use. In the U.S., recent studies have shown that the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) Program, overall, may not have been the leading driver of the ethanol industry from 2005 to 2020, contrary to common perception. Similar scrutiny has not been applied to biodiesel. Here, this study uses the Bioenergy Scenario Model, a well-vetted system dynamics model, to retrospectively apportion historical biodiesel production between the RFS Program and other potentially influential drivers, such as the economics of biodiesel vs. diesel, the Biodiesel Tax Credit (BTC), California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard, and other factors. From 2002 to 2020 about 36% of biodiesel production can be attributed to the RFS Program, 35% to the BTC, and the rest to other factors. Thus, the overall effect of the RFS Program appears much larger on biodiesel than on corn ethanol. The finding that the same policy may have very disparate effects on different biofuels helps inform the design of future policies on biofuels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Renewable Energy and Green Hydrogen Policies on Uttar Pradesh's Power Sector Future: Additional Modeling Scenarios to Explore Hydrogen Flexibility [Slides]

This slide deck is part of a broader program focused on supporting Indian states with long-term power system planning. More information about this program can be found at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's "Supporting India's States With Renewable Energy Integration" web page at https://www.nrel.gov/international/india-renewable-energy-integration.html. The power sector in Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state, is poised to transform over the next few decades due to a combination of national and state-level policies impacting both the supply and demand of electricity. The Government of Uttar Pradesh has policies and plans to develop in-state solar PV, pumped storage hydropower, and green hydrogen. Power system policymakers and utilities in Uttar Pradesh are faced with the challenges of planning a system that incorporates increasing amounts of renewable energy and storage resources, meets rising electricity demand due to economic development and green hydrogen production, and satisfies operational and reliability requirements. To support these various objectives, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), RMI, and the Uttar Pradesh New and Renewable Energy Development Agency (UPNEDA) evaluated the least-cost pathways for the state's power sector through 2050. NREL developed a capacity expansion model that identifies investment and operational decisions for every year (2024-2050) for all of India, with detailed representation for the state of Uttar Pradesh, which can provide a framework for recurring planning studies. The purpose of this slide deck is to supplement the main study (published in May 2024) with additional modeling scenarios to explore hydrogen flexibility.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH 4 ) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH 4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards an open model intercomparison platform for integrated assessment models scenarios

The majority of scenarios in the IPCC database are generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs) and come from model intercomparison projects. However, the way in which the current model intercomparison projects are organized is not open to all IAM teams worldwide. Here we propose a transparent and inclusive platform that is open to anyone with an IAM regarding protocols development, scenario submissions and results evaluation. We discuss the challenges of this approach, particularly human resources and financial support. Here, we identify diversity in the level of model capability and quality of model output as possibly critical issues. Despite such challenges, the IAM community and its scientific activities can improve and benefit from the proposed platform, ultimately contributing to better climate policymaking.

IAM↗
DOE OSTI2023

Expanded modelling scenarios to understand the role of offshore wind in decarbonizing the United States

An assessment of decarbonization pathways in energy models reveals fundamental limitations in representing factors that are relevant for practical decision-making. Although these modelling limitations are widely acknowledged, their impact on the deployment of individual power generation types is not well understood. As a result, the societal value from such generation types could be vastly misrepresented. Here we explore a wide spectrum of factors that impact offshore wind deployment in the United States using a detailed capacity expansion model. Many factors prescribe a large future role for offshore wind, yet this diverges from what models often show. We extend the typically narrow modelling context through high spatial resolution, several cost and transmission possibilities and various energy-sector policies. Further, we estimate offshore wind to constitute 1-8% (31-256 gigawatts) of total US generation by 2050. This wide range suggests an uncertain but potentially important regional role. Our expansive scenarios demonstrate how to address many limitations of decarbonization modelling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1999

Comparison of Integrated Analysis Methods for Two Model Scenarios

Integrated analysis methods have the potential to substantially decrease the time required for analysis modeling. Integration with computer aided design (CAD) software can also allow a model to be more accurate by facilitating import of exact design geometry. However, the integrated method utilized must sometimes be tailored to the specific modeling situation, in order to make the process most efficient. Two cases are presented here that illustrate different processes used for thermal analysis on two different models. These examples are used to illustrate how the requirements, available input, expected output, and tools available all affect the process selected by the analyst for the most efficient and effective analysis.

Amundsen, Ruth M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Time-dependent scenario modeling for the ST-E1 fusion power plant

ST-E1 is a low aspect ratio fusion power plant being designed by Tokamak Energy targeting 1.5 GW of fusion power. Characterization of the ST-E1 flat-top scenario is described elsewhere McNamara et al (2026 Nucl. Fusion 66 086008); here we focus on addressing the question of how to ramp-up the ST-E1 plasma from an initial state following breakdown and flux-surface formation to the target flat-top state. Being low-aspect ratio, the available solenoid flux of ST-E1 is limited. Therefore, particular consideration is placed on developing ramp-up scenarios that predominantly use inductive flux provided by external vertical field coils. Through time-dependent modeling with METIS, we show that this is possible when the ramp-up is performed at relatively high plasma density: although auxiliary current drive efficiency is reduced, this is significantly outweighed by (1) higher electron-ion collisional equilibration, (2) higher fusion power once ions become sufficiently hot, (3) higher poloidal beta for increased vertical-field flux, and (4) potentially favorable exhaust compatibilities. Ultimately, we show the target ST-E1 flat-top performance can be reached after a ramp-up period lasting 150 s using less than 40 Vs of solenoid flux (with vertical field providing ∼ 90 Vs of flux). The sensitivity to model assumptions are presented, with the general observation that deleterious effects can be mitigated through minor alterations of the auxiliary power temporal waveform and/or total auxiliary power level. The impact of a solenoid and the auxiliary power mix (electron cyclotron heating only versus electron and ion cyclotron heating) on the ST-E1 ramp-up success are also discussed in appendices. On this latter topic, we show that the effect of direct-ion heating during ramp-up is obscured by the uncertainty in the pedestal dynamics, identifying a clear line of future work required to make a definite decision on the ST-E1 auxiliary power mix.

current ramp-up↗
DOE OSTI2025

elci-scenario-modeler

A GitHub repository hosting the Python package, grid_mixer, designated for creating the link between the electricity baseline and scenarios for impact analysis.

Electric Generation and Transmission↗
DOE OSTI2024

Synchrotron self-Compton in a radiative-adiabatic fireball scenario: modelling the multiwavelength observations in some Fermi /LAT bursts

Energetic GeV photons expected from the closest and the most energetic Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) provide a unique opportunity to study the very-high-energy emission as well as the possible correlations with lower energy bands in realistic GRB afterglow models. In the standard GRB afterglow model, the relativistic homogeneous shock is usually considered to be fully adiabatic, however, it could be partially radiative. Based on the external forward-shock scenario in both stellar wind and constant-density medium, we present a radiative-adiabatic analytical model of the synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) and synchrotron processes considering an electron energy distribution with a power-law index of $1\lt p\lt 2$ and $2\le p$. We show that the SSC scenario plays a relevant role in the radiative parameter $\epsilon$, leading to a prolonged evolution during the slow cooling regime. In a particular case, we derive the Fermi/LAT light curves together with the photons with energies $\ge 100$ MeV in a sample of nine bursts from the second Fermi/LAT GRB catalogue that exhibited temporal and spectral indices with $\gtrsim 1.5$ and $\approx 2$, respectively. These events can hardly be described with closure relations of the standard synchrotron afterglow model, and also exhibit energetic photons above the synchrotron limit. We have modelled the multiwavelength observations of our sample to constrain the microphysical parameters, the circumburst density, the bulk Lorentz factor, and the mechanism responsible for explaining the energetic GeV photons.

acceleration of particles↗
DOE OSTI2021

Self-consistent core-pedestal ITER scenario modeling

The purpose of these integrated ITER simulations is to identify dependencies that can impact the performance of ITER. The dependence of fusion power production, temperature and density pedestals, and core profiles on varying magnetic-q, edge density fueling strength, neoclassical transport, magnetic field strength, and alpha heating, are examined. It is noted that ion modes usually dominate the interior, while electron modes dominate the barrier. The electron mode without flow shear is substantially stronger. The q increase tends to cause more kinetic ballooning modes at the edge and the q decrease means that the peeling is getting worse, but the ballooning is getting better. The large edge q tends to provide hollow density while small edge q gives normal density profile. This is consistent with the observation that the density of particles is inversely proportional to the density of the plasma current. The rise in the source of the edge particle increases the density of the edge and the reaction rate close to the edge increases temperature fluxes, resulting in weak pedestal barriers. When neoclassical transport is turned off or the strength of B-field is increased, the pronounced edge barriers are identified. In addition, a distinct effect on the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modes is observed due to the increased B-field. The interesting aspect is that the barrier collapses about q = 2 as the stability of MHD has decreased to replace the barrier with a continuous slope but with roughly the same fusion power. This would actually be good for a reactor. The slope of the H-mode pedestal is found to be reduced due to the alpha heating. It is expected that the problem of edge-localized modes causing damage to the first wall will be eased. The effects of circular, elongated, and general geometry on plasma profiles are also compared and contrasted. The circular geometry has a hollow density profile and no edge or internal thermal transport barrier (ETB or ITB). However, both ETBs and ITBs can be found in the elongated geometry. In general geometry, there is a weaker ETB, comparable ITBs, but a higher edge particle transport barrier than in elongated geometry. Higher density near the edge, on the other hand, causes more wall erosion, so elongated geometry might be the best option.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗