New diagnostic sea surface current fields to trace floating algae in the Yellow Sea
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Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
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Subseasonal Variability of U.S. Coastal Sea Level from MJO and ENSO Teleconnection Interference
Abstract Climate variability affects sea levels as certain climate modes can accelerate or decelerate the rising sea level trend, but subseasonal variability of coastal sea levels is underexplored. This study is the first to investigate how remote tropical forcing from the MJO and ENSO impact subseasonal U.S. coastal sea level variability. Here, composite analyses using tide gauge data from six coastal regions along the U.S. East and West Coasts reveal influences on sea level anomalies from both the MJO and ENSO. Tropical MJO deep convection forces a signal that results in U.S. coastal sea level anomalies that vary based on MJO phase. Further, ENSO is shown to modulate both the MJO sea level response and background state of the teleconnections. The sea level anomalies can be significantly enhanced or weakened by the MJO-associated anomaly along the East Coast due to constructive or destructive interference with the ENSO-associated anomaly, respectively. The West Coast anomaly is found to be dominated by ENSO. We examine physical mechanisms by which MJO and ENSO teleconnections impact coastal sea levels and find consistent relationships between low-level winds and sea level pressure that are spatially varying drivers of the variability. Two case studies reveal how MJO and ENSO teleconnection interference played a role in notable coastal flooding events. Much of the focus on sea level rise concerns the long-term trend associated with anthropogenic warming, but on shorter time scales, we find subseasonal climate variability has the potential to exacerbate the regional coastal flooding impacts. Significance Statement Coastal flooding due to sea level rise is increasingly threatening communities, but natural fluctuations of coastal sea levels can exacerbate the human-caused sea level rise trend. This study assesses the role of tropical influences on coastal subseasonal (2 weeks–3 months) sea level heights. Further, we explore the mechanisms responsible, particularly for constructive interference of signals contributing to coastal flooding events. Subseasonal signals amplify or suppress the lower-frequency signals, resulting in higher or lower sea level heights than those expected from known climate modes (e.g., ENSO). Low-level onshore winds and reduced sea level pressure connected to the tropical phenomena are shown to be indicators of increased U.S. coastal sea levels, and vice versa. Two case studies reveal how MJO and ENSO teleconnection interference played a role in notable coastal flooding events. Much of the focus on sea level rise concerns the long-term trend associated with anthropogenic warming, but on shorter time scales, we find subseasonal climate variability has the potential to exacerbate the regional coastal flooding impacts.
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
Atmospheric Variability Drives Anomalies in the Bering Sea Air–Sea Heat Exchange
Abstract High latitudes, including the Bering Sea, are experiencing unprecedented rates of change. Long-term Bering Sea warming trends have been identified, and marine heatwaves (MHWs), event-scale elevated sea surface temperature (SST) extremes, have also increased in frequency and longevity in recent years. Recent work has shown that variability in air–sea coupling plays a dominant role in driving Bering Sea upper-ocean thermal variability and that surface forcing has driven an increase in the occurrence of positive ocean temperature anomalies since 2010. In this work, we characterize the drivers of the anomalous surface air–sea heat fluxes in the Bering Sea over the period 2010–22 using ERA5 fields. We show that the surface turbulent heat flux dominates the net surface heat flux variability from September to April and is primarily a result of near-surface air temperature and specific humidity anomalies. The airmass anomalies that account for the majority of the turbulent heat flux variability are a function of wind direction, with southerly (northerly) wind advecting anomalously warm (cool), moist (dry) air over the Bering Sea, resulting in positive (negative) surface turbulent flux anomalies. During the remaining months of the year, anomalies in the surface radiative fluxes account for the majority of the net surface heat flux variability and are a result of anomalous cloud coverage, anomalous lower-tropospheric virtual temperature, and sea ice coverage variability. Our results indicate that atmospheric variability drives much of the Bering Sea upper-ocean temperature variability through the mediation of the surface heat fluxes during the analysis period. Significance Statement A long-term ocean warming trend and a recent increase in marine heatwaves in the Bering Sea have been identified. Previous work showed that anomalies in the exchange of heat between the ocean and the atmosphere were the primary driver of Bering Sea temperature variability, but the processes responsible for the heat exchange anomalies were unknown. In this work, we show that the atmosphere is the primary driver of anomalies in the Bering Sea air–sea heat exchange and therefore plays an important role in altering the thermal state of the Bering Sea. Our results highlight the importance of understanding more about how the ocean and the atmosphere interact at high latitudes and how this relationship will be affected by future climate change.
Hayden, Emily E. [a College of Earth, Ocean, and A↗
Sea Ice Rheology Experiment (SIREx): 1. Scaling and Statistical Properties of Sea-Ice Deformation Fields
As the sea-ice modeling community is shifting to advanced numerical frameworks, developing new sea-ice rheologies, and increasing model spatial resolution, ubiquitous deformation features in the Arctic sea ice are now being resolved by sea-ice models. Initiated at the Forum for Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis, the Sea Ice Rheology Experiment (SIREx) aims at evaluating state-of-the-art sea-ice models using existing and new metrics to understand how the simulated deformation fields are affected by different representations of sea-ice physics (rheology) and by model configuration. Part 1 of the SIREx analysis is concerned with evaluation of the statistical distribution and scaling properties of sea-ice deformation fields from 35 different simulations against those from the RADARSAT Geophysical Processor System (RGPS). For the first time, the viscous-plastic (and the elastic-viscous-plastic variant), elastic-anisotropic-plastic, and Maxwell-elasto-brittle rheologies are compared in a single study. We find that both plastic and brittle sea-ice rheologies have the potential to reproduce the observed RGPS deformation statistics, including multi-fractality. Model configuration (e.g., numerical convergence, atmospheric representation, spatial resolution) and physical parameterizations (e.g., ice strength parameters and ice thickness distribution) both have effects as important as the choice of sea-ice rheology on the deformation statistics. It is therefore not straightforward to attribute model performance to a specific rheological framework using current deformation metrics. In light of these results, we further evaluate the statistical properties of simulated Linear Kinematic Features in a SIREx Part 2 companion paper.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Air-sea interactions yielding rapid Beaufort Sea ice losses during the 2021 ONR THINICE Pilot Field Campaign
Seasonal sea ice coverage has declined in the Pacific Arctic region. Losses of the ice cover have modified the region’s surface heat and momentum fluxes providing weather systems more direct interaction with the upper ocean. For example, recent cyclones that have passed over these waters have initiated multiple air-sea interactions and have impacted mixed layer depth, wave properties, and sea ice mass budgets due to diabatic and/or advective processes. As a United States Office of Naval Research (ONR) Departmental Research initiative, one key component of the ONR THINICE program was to advance knowledge on Arctic cyclone coupling with the ocean surface, its ice cover, and understand how such coupling can lead to rapid ice loss. Leading up to the primary field campaign in August 2022, a pilot field campaign from 19 August to 13 September 2021 focused in Utqiagvik, Alaska and Longyearbyen, Svalbard was carried out. This period was marked by frequent Arctic cyclones, periods of strong low-level winds, and stints of extreme short-term Beaufort Sea ice area losses. Cyclones traversed these waters much more frequently than usual during this 26-day period, but did not exhibit extreme central pressures indicative of high intensity and impactful storms. Using ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis fields, CERES and AIRS surface flux retrievals, and in situ sensor data collected from ice-tethered profilers and ice mass balance buoys, we highlight air-sea-ice interactions in the Beaufort Sea during and between these cyclones leading up to extreme ice loss events. Our case study analysis is aimed at understanding how Arctic cyclones, including air-sea interactions prompted by their passage over the marginal ice zone, influence the end-of-summer ice conditions and ice loss events. This study provides an example where frequent, yet weak storms drive rather large marginal sea-scale losses albeit with heterogenous sea ice effects at local scales.
Ballinger, Thomas [International Arctic Research C↗
Simple Hybrid Sea Ice Nudging Method for Improving Control Over Partitioning of Sea Ice Concentration and Thickness
Abstract To assess the effect of ocean‐atmosphere coupling in the climate response to forced sea ice loss, the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project protocol includes centennial coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model simulations with imposed sea ice loss. The protocol, which specifies sea ice concentration and thickness distribution targets, does not prescribe a method for achieving them. Although different methods for imposing sea ice loss (or growth) in models have been documented, testing of the method‐dependence of the resulting climate responses has been limited. Achieving the targeted sea ice state has proven to be challenging using the so‐called ghost‐flux nudging method, which induces ice melt from below, as this method does not constrain the partitioning between thickness and concentration. We propose, describe and test a simple method that combines the advantages of direct sea ice nudging and ghost‐flux nudging. The hybrid nudging method better captures the partitioning between thickness and concentration while conserving total water content. We document how this novel sea ice constraining method reaches specific targets, enhances surface turbulent heat flux responses to sea ice loss, and induces tropospheric warming for both polar regions.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
SEAS Communication Engine: An Extensible, Flexible Wrapper for Co-Simulation Agents
When modeling and analyzing the power grid and other large scale systems, researchers often express scenarios as optimization problems and feed them into advanced software solvers. In order to allow multiple solvers to communicate with each other and share data from different domains, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and associated Department of Energy (DOE) labs have developed a software framework called the Hierarchical Engine for Large-scale Infrastructure Co-Simulation (HELICS). HELICS allows cosimulation via a collection of client libraries for different languages that can be called from the appropriate optimization software. However, these client libraries do not provide a higher level of abstraction beyond reading and writing data off of the shared HELICS bus. In this paper, we describe a new software library called the SEAS Communication Engine that exposes a higher-level API for running cosimulation problems. The SEAS Engine provides a class-based abstraction on top of the Python HELICS client, in order to allow users to implement their domain-specific cosimulations without needing to interact with core HELICS primitives. This will make adoption of HELICS and cosimulation in general easier, by exposing a simpler API. In the second part of the paper, we validate our library on a collection of different simulation examples, including the canonical IEEE 13 Bus Feeder. Lastly, we demonstrate using the SEAS Engine to directly call domain-specific code written in the Julia programming language. Our hope is that this will serve as a template for easily calling software in different programming languages via the SEAS Engine, thereby avoiding code duplication and complexity.
co-simulation↗
Sea Ice Rheology Experiment (SIREx): 2. Evaluating Linear Kinematic Features in High-Resolution Sea Ice Simulations
Simulating sea ice drift and deformation in the Arctic Ocean is still a challenge because of the multiscale interaction of sea ice floes that compose the Arctic Sea ice cover. The Sea Ice Rheology Experiment (SIREx) is a model intercomparison project of the Forum of Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS). In SIREx, skill metrics are designed to evaluate different recently suggested approaches for modeling linear kinematic features (LKFs) to provide guidance for modeling small-scale deformation. These LKFs are narrow bands of localized deformation that can be observed in satellite images and also form in high resolution sea ice simulations. In this contribution, spatial and temporal properties of LKFs are assessed in 36 simulations of state-of-the-art sea ice models and compared to deformation features derived from the RADARSAT Geophysical Processor System. All simulations produce LKFs, but only very few models realistically simulate at least some statistics of LKF properties such as densities, lengths, or growth rates. All SIREx models overestimate the angle of fracture between conjugate pairs of LKFs and LKF lifetimes pointing to inaccurate model physics. The temporal and spatial resolution of a simulation and the spatial resolution of atmospheric boundary condition affect simulated LKFs as much as the model's sea ice rheology and numerics. Only in very high resolution simulations (≤2 km) the concentration and thickness anomalies along LKFs are large enough to affect air-ice-ocean interaction processes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Linear Response Function Reveals the Most Effective Remote Forcing in Causing September Arctic Sea Ice Melting in CESM
We apply the linear response function method to investigate the most excitable mode of the September Arctic sea ice and its corresponding remote oceanic forcing in climate models. The method is useful in identifying the fundamental, dynamical and causal relationship between the remote forcing and sea ice response. We find that the most excitable mode of the September Arctic sea ice preferentially takes place over the Pacic side of the Arctic and its remote forcing corresponds to a dipole pattern of precipitation anomaly in the tropics with an increase of precipitation over the western and central tropical and subtropical Pacic ocean while a decrease over the Maritime Continent. The tropical precipitation anomaly likely drives a Rossby wave train propagating toward higher latitudes and leads to a ridge anomaly over the Pacic side of the Arctic, resulting in poleward atmospheric heat transport, enhanced downward longwave radiation and thus melting of the sea ice. In addition, a good agreement is found with the leading tropical Arctic teleconnection mode detected in a pre-industrial control simulation, which supports the usefulness and robustness of the linear response function method and the importance of tropical forcing in shaping the sea ice variability.
Wu, Yutian↗
The measurement of depth of water in oceans, seas, or lakes - GEBCO bathymetry gridded data for North Sea / Baltic Sea - Derived Data
This dataset contains global bathymetry, or water depth, measurements from the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO), converted into the format needed for WRF's Pre-processing System (WPS). The data are read in for the use of a depth-dependent water surface roughness scheme.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Impact of a New Sea Ice Thermodynamic Formulation in the CESM2 Sea Ice Component
Abstract The sea ice component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) contains new “mushy‐layer” physics that simulates prognostic salinity in the sea ice, with consequent modifications to sea ice thermodynamics and the treatment of melt ponds. The changes to the sea ice model and their influence on coupled model simulations are described here. Two simulations were performed to assess the changes in the vertical thermodynamics formulation with prognostic salinity compared to a constant salinity profile. Inclusion of the mushy layer thermodynamics of Turner et al. (2013, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20171 ) in a fully coupled Earth system model produces thicker and more extensive sea ice in the Arctic, with relatively unchanged sea ice in the Antarctic compared to simulations using a constant salinity profile. While this is consistent with the findings of uncoupled ice‐ocean model studies, the role of the frazil and congelation growth is more important in fully coupled simulations. Melt pond drainage is also an important contribution to simulated ice thickness differences as also found in the uncoupled simulations of Turner and Hunke (2015; https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010358 ). However, it is an interaction of the ponds and the snow fraction that impacts the surface albedo and hence the top melt. The changes in the thermodynamics and resulting ice state modify the ice‐ocean‐atmosphere fluxes with impacts on the atmosphere and ocean states, particularly temperature.
Bailey, David A.↗
Annual sea level variations in the Red Sea observed using GNSS
SUMMARY Annual sea level variations in the Red Sea have amplitudes of 15–20 cm as observed using various techniques such as tide gauges, satellite altimetry and recently Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data. In this study, we demonstrate that Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations can also be used to measure the effect of these sea level variations. The extra water mass presses on the seafloor, which causes horizontal and vertical deformations. Using time-series from 10 coastal GNSS stations, we observe annual horizontal and vertical loading displacements with amplitudes of 2–5 mm. When correcting for atmospheric, hydrological and surface water loading and a residual geocentre motion, significant annual signals of approximately 0.5 and 2 mm are still observed for the horizontal and vertical components, respectively. In the northern Red Sea, the observed annual signals and predicted annual sea level loading show good agreement. This confirms that the signal is mostly a result of the variations in water mass and thermal expansion. Furthermore, we conclude that the uncertainties in the hydrological model over Ethiopia and Eritrea influence the loading over the southern Red Sea, which was underestimated in previous studies using GRACE data.
Alothman, A. O.↗
Exceptionally stable preindustrial sea level inferred from the western Mediterranean Sea
An accurate record of preindustrial (pre-1900 CE) sea level is necessary to contextualize modern global mean sea level (GMSL) rise with respect to natural variability. Precisely dated phreatic overgrowths on speleothems (POS) provide detailed rates of Late Holocene sea-level rise in Mallorca. Statistical analysis indicates that sea level rose locally by 0.12 to 0.31 m (95% confidence) from 3.26 to 2.84 thousand years (ka) ago (2σ) and remained within 0.08 m (95% confidence) of preindustrial levels from 2.84 ka to 1900 CE. This sea-level history is consistent with glacial isostatic adjustment models adopting relatively weak upper mantle viscosities of ~10 20 Pa s. There is virtual certainty (>0.999 probability) that the average GMSL rise since 1900 CE has exceeded even the high average rate of sea-level rise between 3.26 and 2.84 ka inferred from the POS record. We conclude that modern GMSL rise is anomalous relative to any natural variability in ice volumes over the past 4000 years.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Sea ice evolution along the Northern Sea Route and implications for trans-Arctic shipping from 2021 through 2060
Arctic surface temperatures warmed at twice the global average in the second half of the 20 th century due to Arctic amplification (AA), a phenomenon predominantly caused by regional polar changes, like the melting of perennial sea ice and reduced sea ice extent (leading to more solar radiation being absorbed by the ocean surface as opposed to being reflected back to space by the ice surface). AA is projected to reach a factor of three even if the climate is stabilized by the mid 21 st century by reduced greenhouse gas emissions. In all emissions scenarios, AA is projected to lead to temperature changes at least 2.4 times larger than global mean surface temperature changes occurring between 2070 and 2100. The ice-albedo feedback, which occurs when the polar-marine surface absorbs more radiation as highly reflective sea ice melts, is reversible such that the premise of a runaway process is no longer accepted as a realistic possibility. No matter what actions are taken to reduce CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere from now on, two different methods of predicting an ice-free Arctic suggest that perennial sea ice will mostly disappear in September by the year 2050. If there is no reduction in anthropogenic CO 2 and methane emissions, that scenario could occur sooner than 2030. Defining Arctic navigability as safe and economic passage of Polar Class 7 cargo ships without need of an escorting icebreaker, no single trans Arctic ship route will be navigable year-round in the first half of the 21 st century, including in the strong emission scenarios. However, seasonal trans-Arctic navigability will increase this century. An estimate on the number of days per year that the Northern See Route (NSR) will be navigable in the future is beyond the scope of this report. Along Northern Sea Routes 5 and 6, which run close to the Russian coast and Yamal LNG plant, an ARC 7 ice class LNG tanker, the equivalent of a Polar Class 3 (PC3) vessel, will be at low risk in December through April at some point during the current decade. May will continue to entail some risk (more than April) along relatively short segments of these routes through the end of the next decade (2030-2039). Come June, snow rapidly melts away, and thereafter the underlying sea ice begins becomes thinner and less concentrated, greatly reducing risk. However, neither path is desirable for ARC 7 tankers due to shallow bathymetry in Sannikov Strait, and a more desirable path for these ships passes to the north of the New Siberian Islands (route 20, discussed further below). Conventional LNG tankers (i.e., non-ice-strengthened vessels according to the IMO classification), without icebreaker escorts, will continue to encounter dangerous or impassable conditions along many sections of the NSR through the end of this decade for many months of the year. Through 2039, these conventional tankers will be able to operate safely along NSR 6 from August through October. By 2040-2049, the span of safe operation increases to August through November, and by 2050-2059 it increases to July through November, assuming a northward deviation to avoid the Sannikov Strait.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Simulating Sea-Ice Deformation in Viscous-Plastic Sea-Ice Models With CD-Grids
Linear kinematic features (LKFs) are found everywhere in the Arctic sea-ice cover. They are strongly localized deformations often associated with the formation of leads and pressure ridges. In viscous-plastic (VP) sea-ice models, the simulation of LKFs depends on several factors such as the grid resolution, the numerical solver convergence, and the placement of the variables on the mesh. In this study, we compare two recently proposed discretization with a CD-grid placement with respect to their ability to reproduce LKFs. The first (CD1) is based on a nonconforming finite element discretization, whereas the second (CD2) uses a conforming subgrid discretization. To analyze their resolution properties, we evaluate runs from different models (e.g., FESOM, MPAS) on a benchmark problem using quadrilateral, hexagonal and triangular meshes. Our findings show that the CD1 setup simulates more deformation structure than the CD2 setup. This highlights the importance of the type of spatial discretization for the simulation of LKFs. Due to the higher number of degrees of freedom, both CD-grids resolve more LKFs than traditional A, B, and C-grids at fixed mesh level. This is an advantage of the CD-grid approach, as high spatial mesh resolution is needed in VP sea-ice models to simulate LKFs.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Wave energy resources assessment for the multi-modal sea state of Hawaii
This paper describes development and validation of a 32-year wave hindcast for Hawaii as part of the wave energy resources assessment for the Exclusive Economic Zones of the US and affiliated territories. The nested model system comprises structured WAVEWATCH III models for the entire globe and the Central North Pacific as well as an unstructured SWAN model around the Hawaiian Islands with wind forcing from the Global Forecast System Reanalysis and its regional downscaling. The development effort follows the standards introduced by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC). The hindcast dataset was firstly validated with buoy measurements in terms of the six IEC wave energy resources parameters including the omnidirectional wave power ????, significant wave height ????????0, energy period ????????, spectral width ????0, direction of maximum directionally resolved wave power ?????????? ????????, and directionality coefficient ????. The comparison shows good overall agreement but with greater uncertainties for the spectral parameters ????0, ???????????????????? , and ???? formulated for narrow band spectra. The multimodal sea state in Hawaii always includes a mix of short-period wind seas, long-period swells from the North and South Pacific as well as waves with moderate periods from multiple sources. We partition the hindcast spectra based on the respective period ranges and directions and validate the partitioned spectral energy and parameters with measured values for implementation in wave energy resources assessment. The partitioned wave parameters from the hindcast allow separate seasonal descriptions of wind seas, north and south swells, and moderate-period waves for in-depth understanding of the wave climate and resources in Hawaii.
Li, Ning↗
A Positive Low Cloud–Sea Surface Temperature Feedback in the East Asian Marginal Seas during El Niño Mature Winters and Their Following Spring
During the winter and subsequent spring of an El Niño year, the East Asian marginal sea (EAMS) exhibits positive sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and fewer low clouds, while the western North Pacific experiences negative SSTAs. In this study, we suggest that the positive SSTAs in EAMS are maintained by a positive low cloud–SST feedback. In neutral winters and springs, the EAMS is covered by low clouds, which have a cooling effect on surface temperatures. During an El Niño year, a western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone is established, and along its northwestern flank, there are favorable conditions for convergence of moisture and weaker surface latent heat flux over the EAMS. Once a positive SSTA has been established, a further reduction of turbulent mixing results in less low cloud and enhanced solar heating of the ocean mixed layer; this reinforces and maintains both the positive SSTA and the lack of low cloud via a positive feedback mechanism. Further, the concurrent increase of low cloud–SST feedback and anticyclone circulation strengths is evident in the coupled-model simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments, performed with the atmospheric components of Community Earth System Model (CESM2), reveal that a positive SSTA helps to maintain the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone. Four pacemaker-coupled experiments by CESM2, with sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific restored to the observational anomalies plus the model climatology and altered low cloud feedback over EAMS, suggest that the low cloud–SST feedback results in more than the maintenance of a positive SSTA over the EAMS: the positive feedback is also a previously overlooked mechanism for the maintenance of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗