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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

Modulation of the Seasonal Cycle of the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent By Sea Ice Processes and Feedbacks With the Ocean and the Atmosphere

The seasonal cycle of the Antarctic sea ice extent is strongly asymmetric, with a relatively slow increase after the summer minimum followed by a more rapid decrease after the winter maximum. This cycle is intimately linked to the seasonal cycle of the insolation received at the top of the atmosphere, but sea ice processes as well as the exchanges with the atmosphere and ocean may also play a role. To quantify these contributions, a series of idealized sensitivity experiments have been performed with an eddy-permitting (∘) NEMO-LIM3 (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean–Louvain-la-Neuve sea ice model version 3) Southern Ocean configuration, including a representation of ice shelf cavities, in which the model was either driven by an atmospheric reanalysis or coupled to the COSMO-CLM2 regional atmospheric model. In those experiments, sea ice thermodynamics and dynamics as well as the exchanges with the ocean and atmosphere are strongly perturbed. This perturbation is achieved by modifying snow and ice thermal conductivities, the vertical mixing in the ocean top layers, the effect of freshwater uptake and release upon sea ice growth and melt, ice dynamics, and surface albedo. We find that the evolution of sea ice extent during the ice advance season is largely independent of the direct effect of the perturbation and appears thus mainly controlled by initial state in summer and subsequent insolation changes. In contrast, the melting rate varies strongly between the experiments during the retreat, in particular if the surface albedo or sea ice transport are modified, demonstrating a strong contribution of those elements to the evolution of ice coverage through spring and summer. As with the advance phase, the retreat is also influenced by conditions at the beginning of the melt season in September. Atmospheric feedbacks enhance the model winter ice extent response to any of the perturbed processes, and the enhancement is strongest when the albedo is modified. The response of sea ice volume and extent to changes in entrainment of subsurface warm waters to the ocean surface is also greatly amplified by the coupling with the atmosphere.

regional atmosphere ocean sea ice model↗
NASA NTRS2011

Variability and Trends in Sea Ice Extent and Ice Production in the Ross Sea

Salt release during sea ice formation in the Ross Sea coastal regions is regarded as a primary forcing for the regional generation of Antarctic Bottom Water. Passive microwave data from November 1978 through 2008 are used to examine the detailed seasonal and interannual characteristics of the sea ice cover of the Ross Sea and the adjacent Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas. For this period the sea ice extent in the Ross Sea shows the greatest increase of all the Antarctic seas. Variability in the ice cover in these regions is linked to changes in the Southern Annular Mode and secondarily to the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave. Over the Ross Sea shelf, analysis of sea ice drift data from 1992 to 2008 yields a positive rate of increase in the net ice export of about 30,000 sq km/yr. For a characteristic ice thickness of 0.6 m, this yields a volume transport of about 20 cu km/yr, which is almost identical, within error bars, to our estimate of the trend in ice production. The increase in brine rejection in the Ross Shelf Polynya associated with the estimated increase with the ice production, however, is not consistent with the reported Ross Sea salinity decrease. The locally generated sea ice enhancement of Ross Sea salinity may be offset by an increase of relatively low salinity of the water advected into the region from the Amundsen Sea, a consequence of increased precipitation and regional glacial ice melt.

Comiso, Josefino↗
NASA NTRS1987

On the relationship between atmospheric circulation and the fluctuations in the sea ice extents of the Bering and Okhotsk Seas

The influence of the hemispheric atmospheric circulation on the sea ice covers of the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk is examined using data obtained with the Nimbus 5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer for the four winters of the 1973-1976 period. The 3-day averaged sea ice extent data were used to establish periods for which there is an out-of-phase relationship between fluctuations of the two ice covers. A comparison of the sea-level atmospheric pressure field with the seasonal, interannual, and short-term sea ice fluctuations reveal an association between changes in the phase and the amplitude of the long waves in the atmosphere and advance and retreat of Arctic ice covers.

Cavalieri, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

A Model Assessment of Satellite Observed Trends in Polar Sea Ice Extents

For more than three decades now, satellite passive microwave observations have been used to monitor polar sea ice. Here we utilize sea ice extent trends determined from primarily satellite data for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for the period 1972(73)-2004 and compare them with results from simulations by eleven climate models. In the Northern Hemisphere, observations show a statistically significant decrease of sea ice extent and an acceleration of sea ice retreat during the past three decades. However, from the modeled natural variability of sea ice extents in control simulations, we conclude that the acceleration is not statistically significant and should not be extrapolated into the future. Observations and model simulations show that the time scale of climate variability in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere is much larger than in the Northern Hemisphere and that the Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent trends are not statistically significant.

Vinnikov, Konstantin Y.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Melt Onset from NSCAT Observations

Arctic sea ice extent and the timing of melt onset are important parameters in the study of polar processes and climate changes. NSCAT Ku-band active microwave observations of the Arctic sea ice cover are described in this article with emphasis on their potential use for estimating ice extent and detection of spring melt.

Arctic↗
NASA NTRS2021

Sea Ice Extents Continue to Set New Records: Arctic, Antarctic, and Global Results

The multi-channel satellite passive-microwave record of Earth’s sea ice coverage, extending back to the late 1970s, has long revealed declining sea ice coverage in the Arctic but through 2015 revealed an overall increase rather than decrease in Antarctic sea ice coverage. Following major decreases in Antarctic sea ice since 2015, the 42-year 1979-2020 satellite dataset now shows losses in sea ice coverage in both hemispheres, and this is convincingly demonstrated by the enumeration of monthly and yearly record high and record low sea ice extents experienced over the course of the 42 years. In fact, one of the most convincing statistics on the declining Arctic sea ice cover is the fact that since 1986 the Arctic has not experienced a single monthly record high sea ice extent in any month but has experienced 93 monthly record lows. In contrast, all 12 calendar months have their 42-year Antarctic monthly record high sea ice extents in the period 2007-2015, while 8 of the 12 calendar months have had Antarctic record lows since 2015. Globally, every calendar month has registered a new monthly record low within the past 5 years. These results are complemented (and somewhat tempered) by quantification of the range of monthly and yearly sea ice extent values over the 42 years. For instance, although the Arctic’s lowest September monthly average sea ice extent (in 2012) is 53% lower than its highest September monthly average sea ice extent (in 1980), the other months have far smaller percent differences between their lowest and highest Arctic values. For yearly average sea ice extents, the Arctic’s lowest value (in 2020) is 18% lower than its highest value (in 1982), the Antarctic’s lowest value (in 2017) is 16% lower than its highest value (in 2014), and the global lowest value (in 2019) is only 12% lower than its highest value (in 1982).

sea ice↗
NASA NTRS2015

Revisiting the Potential of Melt Pond Fraction as a Predictor for the Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Extent Minimum

The rapid change in Arctic sea ice in recent decades has led to a rising demand for seasonal sea ice prediction. A recent modeling study that employed a prognostic melt pond model in a stand-alone sea ice model found that September Arctic sea ice extent can be accurately predicted from the melt pond fraction in May. Here we show that satellite observations show no evidence of predictive skill in May. However, we find that a significantly strong relationship (high predictability) first emerges as the melt pond fraction is integrated from early May to late June, with a persistent strong relationship only occurring after late July. Our results highlight that late spring to mid summer melt pond information is required to improve the prediction skill of the seasonal sea ice minimum. Furthermore, satellite observations indicate a much higher percentage of melt pond formation in May than does the aforementioned model simulation, which points to the need to reconcile model simulations and observations, in order to better understand key mechanisms of melt pond formation and evolution and their influence on sea ice state.

sea ice↗
NASA NTRS2001

A 21-Year Record of Arctic Sea Ice Extents and Their Regional, Seasonal, and Monthly Variability and Trends

Satellite passive-microwave data have been used to calculate sea ice extents over the period 1979-1999 for the north polar sea ice cover as a whole and for each of nine regions. Over this 21-year time period, the trend in yearly average ice extents for the ice cover as a whole is -32,900 +/- 6,100 sq km/yr (-2.7 +/- 0.5 %/decade), indicating a reduction in sea ice coverage that has decelerated from the earlier reported value of -34,000 +/- 8,300 sq km/yr (-2.8 +/- 0.7 %/decade) for the period 1979-1996. Regionally, the reductions are greatest in the Arctic Ocean, the Kara and Barents Seas, and the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan, whereas seasonally, the reductions are greatest in summer, for which season the 1979-1999 trend in ice extents is -41,600 +/- 12,900 sq km/ yr (-4.9 +/- 1.5 %/decade). On a monthly basis, the reductions are greatest in July and September for the north polar ice cover as a whole, in September for the Arctic Ocean, in June and July for the Kara and Barents Seas, and in April for the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan. Only two of the nine regions show overall ice extent increases, those being the Bering Sea and the Gulf of St. Lawrence.For neither of these two regions is the increase statistically significant, whereas the 1079 - 1999 ice extent decreases are statistically significant at the 99% confidence level for the north polar region as a whole, the Arctic Ocean, the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan, and Hudson Bay.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Large-scale variations in observed Antarctic Sea ice extent and associated atmospheric circulation

The 1974 Antarctic large scale sea ice extent is studied from data from Nimbus 2 and 5 and temperature and sea level pressure fields from the Australian Meteorological Data Set. Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer data were three-day averaged and compared with 1000 mbar atmospheric pressure and sea level pressure data, also in three-day averages. Each three-day period was subjected to a Fourier analysis and included the mean latitude of the ice extent and the phases and percent variances in terms of the first six Fourier harmonics. Centers of low pressure were found to be generally east of regions which displayed rapid ice growth, and winds acted to extend the ice equatorward. An atmospheric response was also noted as caused by the changing ice cover.

Cavalieri, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Extent on Polar Cloud Fraction and Vertical Structure and Implications for Regional Climate

Recent satellite lidar measurements of cloud properties spanning a period of 5 years are used to examine a possible connection between Arctic sea ice amount and polar cloud fraction and vertical distribution. We find an anticorrelation between sea ice extent and cloud fraction with maximum cloudiness occurring over areas with little or no sea ice. We also find that over ice!free regions, there is greater low cloud frequency and average optical depth. Most of the optical depth increase is due to the presence of geometrically thicker clouds over water. In addition, our analysis indicates that over the last 5 years, October and March average polar cloud fraction has increased by about 7% and 10%, respectively, as year average sea ice extent has decreased by 5% 7%. The observed cloud changes are likely due to a number of effects including, but not limited to, the observed decrease in sea ice extent and thickness. Increasing cloud amount and changes in vertical distribution and optical properties have the potential to affect the radiative balance of the Arctic region by decreasing both the upwelling terrestrial longwave radiation and the downward shortwave solar radiation. Because longwave radiation dominates in the long polar winter, the overall effect of increasing low cloud cover is likely a warming of the Arctic and thus a positive climate feedback, possibly accelerating the melting of Arctic sea ice.

Palm, Stephen P.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Extent on Polar Cloud Fraction and Vertical Structure and Implications for Regional Climate

Recent satellite lidar measurements of cloud properties spanning a period of five years are used to examine a possible connection between Arctic sea ice amount and polar cloud fraction and vertical distribution. We find an anti-correlation between sea ice extent and cloud fraction with maximum cloudiness occurring over areas with little or no sea ice. We also find that over ice free regions, there is greater low cloud frequency and average optical depth. Most of the optical depth increase is due to the presence of geometrically thicker clouds over water. In addition, our analysis indicates that over the last 5 years, October and March average polar cloud fraction has increased by about 7 and 10 percent, respectively, as year average sea ice extent has decreased by 5 to 7 percent. The observed cloud changes are likely due to a number of effects including, but not limited to, the observed decrease in sea ice extent and thickness. Increasing cloud amount and changes in vertical distribution and optical properties have the potential to affect the radiative balance of the Arctic region by decreasing both the upwelling terrestrial longwave radiation and the downward shortwave solar radiation. Since longwave radiation dominates in the long polar winter, the overall effect of increasing low cloud cover is likely a warming of the Arctic and thus a positive climate feedback, possibly accelerating the melting of Arctic sea ice.

Palm, Stephen P.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Anomalous Variability in Antarctic Sea Ice Extents During the 1960s With the Use of Nimbus Data

The Nimbus I, II, and III satellites provide a new opportunity for climate studies in the 1960s. The rescue of the visible and infrared imager data resulted in the utilization of the early Nimbus data to determine sea ice extent. A qualitative analysis of the early NASA Nimbus missions has revealed Antarctic sea ice extents that are signicant larger and smaller than the historic 1979-2012 passive microwave record. The September 1964 ice mean area is 19.7x10 km +/- 0.3x10 km. This is more the 250,000 km greater than the 19.44x10 km seen in the new 2012 historic maximum. However, in August 1966 the maximum sea ice extent fell to 15.9x10 km +/- 0.3x10 km. This is more than 1.5x10 km below the passive microwave record of 17.5x10 km set in September of 1986. This variation between 1964 and 1966 represents a change of maximum sea ice of over 3x10 km in just two years. These inter-annual variations while large, are small when compared to the Antarctic seasonal cycle.

Sea Ice↗
NASA NTRS2013

Anomalous Variability in Antarctic Sea Ice Extents During the 1960s With the Use of Nimbus Data

The Nimbus I, II, and III satellites provide a new opportunity for climate studies in the 1960s. The rescue of the visible and infrared imager data resulted in the utilization of the early Nimbus data to determine sea ice extent. A qualitative analysis of the early NASA Nimbus missions has revealed Antarctic sea ice extents that are significant larger and smaller than the historic 1979-2012 passive microwave record. The September 1964 ice mean area is 19.7x10(exp 6) sq. km +/- 0.3x10(exp 6) sq. km. This is more the 250,000 sq. km greater than the 19.44x10(exp 6) sq. km seen in the new 2012 historic maximum. However, in August 1966 the maximum sea ice extent fell to 15.9x10(exp 6) sq. km +/- 0.3x10(exp 6) sq. km. This is more than 1.5x10(exp 6) sq. km below the passive microwave record of 17.5x10(exp 6) sq. km set in September of 1986. This variation between 1964 and 1966 represents a change of maximum sea ice of over 3x10(exp 6) sq. km in just two years. These inter-annual variations while large, are small when compared to the Antarctic seasonal cycle.

Antarctic↗
NASA NTRS1997

Annual Sea Level Variability Induced by Changes in Sea Ice Extent and Accumulation on Ice Sheets: An Assessment Based on Remotely Sensed Data

Changes of mean annual net accumulation at the surface on the grounded ice sheets of East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and Greenland in response to variations in sea ice extent are estimated using grid-point values 100 km apart. The data bases are assembled principally by bilinear interpolation of remotely sensed brightness temperature (Nimbus-5 ESMR, Nimbus-7 SMMR), surface temperature (Nimbus-7 THIR), and surface elevation (ERS-1 radar altimeter). These data, complemented by field data where remotely sensed data are not available, are used in multivariate analyses in which mean annual accumulation (derived from firn emissivity) is the dependent variable; the independent variables are latitude, surface elevation, mean annual surface temperature, and mean annual distance to open ocean (as a source of energy and moisture). The last is the shortest distance measured between a grid point and the mean annual position of the 10% sea ice concentration boundary, and is used as an index of changes in sea ice extent as well as of mean concentration. Stepwise correlation analyses indicate that variations in sea ice extent of +/-50 km would lead to changes in accumulation inversely of +/-4% on East Antarctica, +/- 10% on West Antarctica, and +4% on Greenland. These results are compared with those obtained in a previous study using visually interpolated values from contoured compilations of field data; they substantiate the findings for the Antarctic ice sheets (+/-4% on East Antarctica, +/-9% in West Antarctica), and suggest a reduction by one half of the probable change of accumulation on Greenland (from +/-8%). The results also suggest a reduction of the combined contribution to sea level variability to +/- 0.19 mm/a (from +/- 0.22 mm/a).

Zwally, H. J.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Predictability of the Minimum Sea Ice Extent from Winter Fram Strait Ice Area Export: Model vs Observations

Observations show predictive skill of the minimum sea ice extent (Min SIE) from late winter anomalous off-shore ice drift along the Eurasian coastline – leading to local ice thickness anomalies at the onset of the melt season – a signal then amplified by the ice-albedo feedback. We assess whether the observed seasonal predictability of September sea ice extent (Sept SIE) from Fram Strait Ice Area Export (FSIAE, a proxy for Eurasian coastal divergence) is present in Global Climate Model (GCM) large ensembles, namely the CESM2-LE, GISS-E2.1-G, FLOR-LE, CNRM-CM6-1, and CanESM5. All models show distinct periods where winter FSIAE anomalies are negatively correlated with the May sea ice thickness (May SIT) anomalies along the Eurasian coastline, and the following Sept Arctic SIE, as in observations. Counter-intuitively, several models show occasional periods where winter FSIAE anomalies are positively correlated with the following Sept SIE anomalies when the mean ice thickness is large or late in the simulation when the sea ice is thin, and/or when internal variability increases. More importantly, periods with weak correlation between FSIAE and the Sept SIE dominate, suggesting that summer melt processes dominate over late winter preconditioning and May SIT anomalies. In general, we find that the coupling between the FSIAE and ice thickness anomalies along the Eurasian coastline is an ubiquitous feature of GCMs and that the relationship with the following Sept SIE is dependent on the mean Arctic sea ice thickness.

off-shore ice drift↗
NASA NTRS2016

Bellingshausen Sea Ice Extent Recorded in an Antarctic Peninsula Ice Core

Annual net accumulation (A(sub n)) from the Bruce Plateau (BP) ice core retrieved from the Antarctic Peninsula exhibits a notable relationship with sea ice extent (SIE) in the Bellingshausen Sea. Over the satellite era, both BP A(sub n) and Bellingshausen SIE are influenced by large-scale climatic factors such as the Amundsen Sea Low, Southern Annular Mode, and Southern Oscillation. In addition to the direct response of BP A(sub n) to Bellingshausen SIE (e.g., more open water as a moisture source), these large-scale climate phenomena also link the BP and the Bellingshausen Sea indirectly such that they exhibit similar responses (e.g., northerly wind anomalies advect warm, moist air to the Antarctic Peninsula and neighboring Bellingshausen Sea, which reduces SIE and increases A(sub n)). Comparison with a time series of fast ice at South Orkney Islands reveals a relationship between BP A(sub n) and sea ice in the northern Weddell Sea that is relatively consistent over the twentieth century, except when it is modulated by atmospheric wave patterns described by the Trans-Polar Index. The trend of increasing accumulation on the Bruce Plateau since approximately 1970 agrees with other climate records and reconstructions in the region and suggests that the current rate of sea ice loss in the Bellingshausen Sea is unrivaled in the twentieth century.

sea ice↗