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At least 19 records

Global sea-level changes during the past century

A novel technique, initially developed for climate studies, is used to reevaluate the estimate of relative sea-level change over the past century. The technique produces a composite regional average sea-level curve from the tide-gage data of individual stations. The effects of glacioisostasy and long-term tectonism are accounted for using late Holocene sea-level indicators. Along the east coast of North America, an apparent maximum sea-level rise is detected in both tide-gage and late Holocene sea-level indicators between Chesapeake Bay and New Jersey. Sea-level changes in western North America reveal greater spatial variations than for the east coast, which can be related to more active tectonism in California and British Columbia and to strong localized isostatic rebound in Alaska.

Gornitz, Vivien↗

Can Satellite Geodesy Disentangle Holocene Rebound and Present-Day Glacier Balance Signatures?

The secular drift of the precession of the ascending node of the LAGOES -1 satellite is apparently linked to the Earth s paleoclimate through the slow viscous response of the mantle to ice sheet/ocean mass transfer during the last great continental deglaciation . The secular node acceleration is particularly sensitive to the longest wavelengths of the paleo -surface loading that have been memorized by the mantle glacio -isostatic flow. Tide gauge records for the last 130 years show a post-glacial rebound-corrected sea-level rise of 2.4 n 0.9 mm yr-1.

glacio-isostatic flow tide gauge records post-glac↗

Subaerially exposed Holocene coral reef, Enriquillo Valley, Dominican Republic

An extremely well-preserved Holocene fringing coral reef occurs at an average elevation of 5 m below sea level around the margins of the central Enriquillo Valley, Dominican Republic. The reef records the latest marine incursion from the east into an 85-km-long, 12-km-wide tectonic depression and appears to represent a unique preservation. Excellent cross sections of the reef exposed in erosional gullies reveal a composition and zonation typical of modern Caribbean reefs that are found in offshore low-energy environments. Radiocarbon age determinations (2) indicate that reef growth coincided with sea-level rise following the last ice age (5,930 + or - 100 to 4,760 + or - 90 yr B.P.). Deltaic deposition and possible vertical movements on active fault scarps dammed the eastern mouth of the valley and created Lago Enriquillo, the level of which was then rapidly lowered by evaporation in an arid climate to produce a saline lake approximately 40 m below sea level. Stratigraphic studies of rocks along the valley edge and data from drill holes in the basin center indicate that there were earlier post-Miocene marine incursions similar to that described here.

Mann, P.↗

A Solar-luminosity Model and Climate

Although the mechanisms of climatic change are not completely understood, the potential causes include changes in the Sun's luminosity. Solar activity in the form of sunspots, flares, proton events, and radiation fluctuations has displayed periodic tendencies. Two types of proxy climatic data that can be related to periodic solar activity are varved geologic formations and freshwater diatom deposits. A model for solar luminosity was developed by using the geometric progression of harmonic cycles that is evident in solar and geophysical data. The model assumes that variation in global energy input is a result of many periods of individual solar-luminosity variations. The 0.1-percent variation of the solar constant measured during the last sunspot cycle provided the basis for determining the amplitude of each luminosity cycle. Model output is a summation of the amplitudes of each cycle of a geometric progression of harmonic sine waves that are referenced to the 11-year average solar cycle. When the last eight cycles in Emiliani's oxygen-18 variations from deep-sea cores were standardized to the average length of glaciations during the Pleistocene (88,000 years), correlation coefficients with the model output ranged from 0.48 to 0.76. In order to calibrate the model to real time, model output was graphically compared to indirect records of glacial advances and retreats during the last 24,000 years and with sea-level rises during the Holocene. Carbon-14 production during the last millenium and elevations of the Great Salt Lake for the last 140 years demonstrate significant correlations with modeled luminosity. Major solar flares during the last 90 years match well with the time-calibrated model.

Perry, Charles A.↗

The effects of global climate change on Southeast Asia: A survey of likely impacts and problems of adaptation

Study results indicate the likelihood of significant net damages from climate change, in particular damages from sea-level rise and higher temperatures that seem unlikely to be offset by favorable shifts in precipitation and carbon dioxide. Also indicated was the importance of better climate models, in particular models that can calculate climate change on a regional scale appropriate to policy-making. In spite of this potential for damage, there seems to be a low level of awareness and concern, probably caused by the higher priority given to economic growth and reinforced by the great uncertainty in the forecasts. The common property nature of global environment systems also leads to a feeling of helplessness on the part of country governments.

Njoto, Sukrisno↗

Reconnaissance and deep-drill site selection on Taylor Dome, Antarctica

Taylor Dome is a small ice dome near the head of Taylor Valley, Southern Victoria Land. The location of the dome, just west of the Transantarctic Mountains, is expected to make the composition of the accumulating snow sensitive to changes in the extent of the Ross Ice Shelf. Thus, it is linked to the discharge of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet but protected against direct influences of glacial-interglacial sea-level rise. The record of past climatic and environmental changes in the ice provides a valuable complement to the radiocarbon-dated proxy record of climate derived from perched deltas, strandlines, and moraines that have been obtained in the nearby Dry Valleys. We carried out a reconnaissance of the Taylor Dome area over the past two field seasons to determine the most favorable location to obtain a deep core to bedrock. A stake network has been established with an 80-km line roughly along the crest of Taylor Dome, and 40-km lines parallel to it and offset by 10 km. These lines have been surveyed 1990/91, and the positions of 9 grid points have been determined with geoceivers. A higher density stake network was placed and surveyed around the most likely drill area in the second year. Ground-based radar soundings in both years provided details on bedrock topography and internal layering of the ice in the drill area. An airborne radar survey in January 1992, completed the radar coverage of the Taylor Dome field area.

Grootes, Pieter M.↗

Aerogeophysical evidence for active volcanism beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Although it is widely understood that the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) would cause a global sea-level rise of 6 m, there continues to be considerable debate about the response of this ice sheet to climate change. The stability of the WAIS, which is characterized by a bed grounded well below sea level, may depend on geologically controlled conditions at the base, which are independent of climate. Ice streams moving up to 750 m/yr disperse material from the interior through to the oceans. As these ice streams tend to buffer the reservoir of slow-moving inland ice from exposure to oceanic degradation, understanding the ice-streaming process is important for evaluating WAIS stability. There is strong evidence that ice streams slide on a lubricating layer of water-saturated till. Development of this basal layer requires both water and easily eroded sediments. Active lithospheric extension may elevate regional heat flux, increase basal melting, and trigger ice streaming. If a geologically defined boundary with a sharp contrast in geothermal flux exists beneath the WAIS, ice streams may only be capable of operating as a buffer over a restricted region. Should ocean waters penetrate beyond this boundary, the ice-stream buffer would disappear, possibly triggering a collapse of the inland ice reservoir. Aerogeophysical evidence for active volcanism and elevated heat flux beneath the WAIS near the critical region where ice streaming begins is presented.

Blankenship, Donald D.↗

Ice discharge from north and northeast Greenland using ERS data

Ice discharge from north and northeast Greenland glaciers was calculated at the grounding line using ERS radar interferometry data acquired during the tandem phase. The resulting estimates exceed the production of icebergs at the glacier fronts by a factor of 3.5. This large decrease in ice flux is attributed to extensive melting at the underside of the floating sections. When compared to the predicted grounding line ice discharge of an ice sheet in balance, the results show an excess of 28 cubic km/yr of ice lost to the ocean. The north and northeast sectors of the Greenland ice sheet are therefore thinning and contributing positively to sea-level rise.

Rignot, Eric↗

North and Northeast Greenland Ice Discharge from Satellite Radar Interferometry

Ice discharge from north and northeast Greenland calculated from satellite radar interferometry data of 14 outlet glaciers is 3.5 times that estimated from iceberg production. The satellite estimates, obtained at the grounding line of the outlet glaciers, differ from those obtained at the glacier front, because basal melting is extensive at the underside of the floating glacier sections. The results suggest that the north and northeast parts of the Greenland ice sheet may be thinning and contributing positively to sea-level rise.

Rignot, E. J.↗

Elevation Change of the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet from Satellite Radar Altimeter Data

Long-term changes in the thickness of the polar ice sheets are important indicators of climate change. Understanding the contributions to the global water mass balance from the accumulation or ablation of grounded ice in Greenland and Antarctica is considered crucial for determining the source of the about 2 mm/yr sea-level rise in the last century. Though the Antarctic ice sheet is much larger than its northern counterpart, the Greenland ice sheet is more likely to undergo dramatic changes in response to a warming trend. This can be attributed to the warmer Greenland climate, as well as a potential for amplification of a global warming trend in the polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere. In collaboration with Drs. Curt Davis and Craig Kluever of the University of Missouri, we are using data from satellite radar altimeters to measure changes in the elevation of the Southern Greenland ice sheet from 1978 to the present. Difficulties with systematic altimeter measurement errors, particularly in intersatellite comparisons, beset earlier studies of the Greenland ice sheet thickness. We use altimeter data collected contemporaneously over the global ocean to establish a reference for correcting ice-sheet data. In addition, the waveform data from the ice-sheet radar returns are reprocessed to better determine the range from the satellite to the ice surface. At JPL, we are focusing our efforts principally on the reduction of orbit errors and range biases in the measurement systems on the various altimeter missions. Our approach emphasizes global characterization and reduction of the long-period orbit errors and range biases using altimeter data from NASA's Ocean Pathfinder program. Along-track sea-height residuals are sequentially filtered and backwards smoothed, and the radial orbit errors are modeled as sinusoids with a wavelength equal to one revolution of the satellite. The amplitudes of the sinusoids are treated as exponentially-correlated noise processes with a time-constant of six days. Measurement errors (e.g., altimeter range bias) are simultaneously recovered as constant parameters. The corrections derived from the global ocean analysis are then applied over the Greenland ice sheet. The orbit error and measurement bias corrections for different missions are developed in a single framework to enable robust linkage of ice-sheet measurements from 1978 to the present. In 1998, we completed our re-evaluation of the 1978 Seasat and 1985-1989 Geosat Exact Repeat Mission data. The estimates of ice thickness over Southern Greenland (south of 72N and above 2000 m) from 1978 to 1988 show large regional variations (+/-18 cm/yr), but yield an overall rate of +1.5 +/- 0.5 cm/yr (one standard error). Accounting for systematic errors, the estimate may not be significantly different from the null growth rate. The average elevation change from 1978 to 1988 is too small to assess whether the Greenland ice sheet is undergoing a long-term change.

Haines, Bruce J.↗

Understanding Sea Level Changes

Today more than 100 million people worldwide live on coastlines within one meter of mean sea level; any short-term or long-term sea level change relative to vertical ground motion is of great societal and economic concern. As palm-environment and historical data have clearly indicated the existence and prevalence of such changes in the past, new scientific information regarding to the nature and causes and a prediction capability are of utmost importance for the future. The 10-20 cm global sea-level rise recorded over the last century has been broadly attributed to two effects: (1) the steric effect (thermal expansion and salinity-density compensation of sea water) following global climate; (2) mass-budget changes due to a number of competing geophysical and hydrological processes in the Earth-atmosphere-hydrosphere-cryosphere system, including water exchange from polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers to the ocean, atmospheric water vapor and land hydrological variations, and anthropogenic effects such as water impoundment in artificial reservoirs and extraction of groundwater, all superimposed on the vertical motions of solid Earth due to tectonics, rebound of the mantle from past and present deglaciation, and other local ground motions. As remote-sensing tools, a number of space geodetic measurements of sea surface topography (e.g., TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason), ice mass (e.g., ICESat), time-variable gravity (e.g. GRACE), and ground motions (SLR, VLBI, GPS, InSAR, Laser altimetry, etc.) become directly relevant. Understanding sea level changes "anywhere, anytime" in a well-defined terrestrial reference frame in terms of climate change and interactions among ice masses, oceans, and the solid Earth, and being able to predict them, emerge as one of the scientific challenges in the Solid Earth Science Working Group (SESWG, 2003) conclusions.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗

Towards an improved understanding of the Antarctic coastal zone and its contribution to future global sea level

Understanding the coastal zone of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, where it interacts with the Southern Ocean and warmer air masses, is crucial for predicting Antarctica's influence on the global climate. This region has multiple tipping mechanisms that could trigger large, rapid, and potentially irreversible changes in the coming centuries. The Antarctic Ice Sheet remains the largest source of uncertainty in future sea-level projections. Insufficient knowledge of bed topography beneath the ice shelves and the coastal ice sheet is not yet well documented, but is a major source of this uncertainty. This review assesses current knowledge of the coastal zone and highlights methods to investigate it, including aerogeophysical surveys, ground- and ship-based measurements, satellite observations, and computer modeling. An ensemble analysis of published bed topography datasets identifies significant data gaps and their regional distribution, framed in the context of current ice-sheet behavior and potential instability. We propose scientific priorities and guidelines for future aerogeophysical surveys, advocating for a comprehensive, coordinated international effort to build a next-generation dataset of Antarctic bed properties. Such an initiative would significantly advance understanding of the role of coastal processes in ice-sheet dynamics, reducing uncertainties in sea-level rise projections and enhancing predictions of future ocean and climate changes.

Kenichi Matsuoka↗

Towards an Improved Understanding of the Antarctic Coastal Zone and Its Contribution to Future Global Sea Level

Understanding the coastal zone of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), where it interacts with the Southern Ocean and warmer air masses, is crucial for predicting Antarctica's influence on the global climate and sea level. This region has multiple tipping mechanisms that could trigger large, rapid, and potentially irreversible changes in the AIS, the Southern Ocean and their global connections in the coming centuries. The AIS remains the largest source of uncertainty in future sea-level projections. Bed topography beneath the ice shelves and the coastal ice sheet is not yet well documented, and is a major source of this uncertainty. This review assesses current knowledge of the coastal zone and highlights methods to investigate it, including aerogeophysical surveys, ground- and ship-based measurements, satellite observations, and computer modeling. An ensemble analysis of published bed topography data sets identifies significant data gaps and their regional distribution, framed in the context of current ice-sheet behavior and potential instability. We propose scientific priorities and guidelines for future aerogeophysical surveys, advocating for a comprehensive, coordinated international effort to build a next-generation data set of Antarctic bed properties. Such an initiative would significantly advance understanding of the role of coastal processes in ice-sheet dynamics, reducing uncertainties in sea-level rise projections and improving predictions of future ocean and climate changes.

Kenichi Matsuoka↗

Subsidence and eustasy at the continental margin of eastern North America

Biostratigraphic data from the COST B-2 well off New York and four deep commercial wells off Nova Scotia have been used to remove the effect of sediment loading at the Atlantic-type continental margin off the East Coast of North America. The resulting subsidence contains terms due to both 'tectonic' and 'eustatic' effects. By assuming the tectonic subsidence is thermal in origin these effects can be separated. The 'eustatic' effects have been isolated by least squares fitting an exponential curve to the subsidence data. The resulting sea-level curve shows a maximum rise in sea level during the Late Cretaceous era which probably does not exceed 150 m. The tectonic subsidence has been interpreted in terms of a simple thermal model for the cooling lithosphere. Based on this model the thermal thickness of the lithosphere and the total amount of crustal thinning are estimated. These estimates which are consistent with surface ship gravity and GEOS-3 altimeter measurements are used to define the structural elements which control the tectonic evolution of the margin.

Watts, A. B.↗

Altitude Performance of Allison V-1710-93 Engine and Two-Stage Supercharger

Bench tests have been made of an Allison V-1710-93 engine at simulated altitudes of 17,000 and 29,000 feet to determine the performance of the engine, the characteristics of the induction system, and the modifications required in the induction system for the center dot development of 1840 brake horsepower at 17,030 feet and 1200 horsepower at 29,000 feet. With the engine speed maintained at a constant value of 3000 rpm, the tip speed of the auxiliary-stage supercharger was varied from the minimum to the maximum speed. Measurements were made to determine engine power, fuel and air consumptions, and pressure and temperature changes introduced by each component of the induction system. Although the over-all pressure ratios of the superchargers agreed with those determined from previous sea-level bench tests of these units, the over-all temperature rise was -generally much lower than had been anticipated. In order to obtain the desired brake horsepower, some form of charge-air cooling is essential; the carburetor should either be enlarged or removed; and the minimum gear ratios of the engine-stage and the minimum gear ratios of the engine-stage and the auxiliary-stage superchargers should be 8.1:1 and 8.08:1, respectively.

Edward Glodeck↗

Eustatic sea level fluctuations induced by polar wander

It is shown here that polar wander of a viscoelastic, stratified earth can induce global sea level fluctuations comparable to the short-term component in eustatic sea-level curves. The sign of these fluctuations, which are very sensitive to the rheological stratification, depends on the geographical location of the observation point; rises and falls in sea level can thus be coeval in different parts of the world. This finding is a distinct contrast to the main assumption underlying the reconstruction of eustatic curves, namely that global sea-level events produce the same depositional sequence everywhere. It is proposed that polar wander should be added to the list of geophysical mechanisms that can control the third-order cycles in sea level.

Sabadini, Roberto↗

Spectroscopic analysis of global tide gauge sea level data

Yearly and monthly global tide-gage sea-level data are fitted to numerically generated tidal data in order to search for the 18.6-yr lunar nodal tide and 14-month pole tide. Both of these tides are clearly evident, with amplitudes and phases that are consistent with a global equilibrium response. The ocean's response to atmospheric pressure is studied with the least-squares fit technique. Consideration is given to the global rise in sea level, the effects of postglacial rebound, and the possible causes of the enhanced pole tides in the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, and the Gulf of Bothnia. The results support O'Connor's (1986) suggestion that the enhanced pole tide in these regions is due to meteorological forcing rather than a basin-scale resonance. Also, the global average of the tide-gage data show an increase in sea level over tha last 80 yr of between 1.1 and 1.9 mm/yr.

Trupin, A.↗