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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

DISCOVR strain pipeline screening – Part II: Winter and summer season areal productivities and biomass compositional shifts in climate-simulation photobioreactor cultures

Assessing the seasonal biomass productivity and compositional shift dynamics under simulated outdoor culture conditions of the top 22 algae strains selected during Tier I flask screening is an important step in the further prioritization of strains with regard to outdoor pond cultivation. These top 22 strains were subjected to Tier II testing in the PNNL Laboratory Environmental Algae Pond Simulator (LEAPS) photobioreactors, simulating light and temperature conditions of 20 cm deep outdoor ponds during the Arizona winter and summer season. All strains were grown in two consecutive nutrient-replete batch culture experiments at their particular optimal medium salinity to quantify their respective seasonal linear-phase areal biomass productivities. To determine biomass compositional shifts in response to nutrient-depletion, the LEAPS cultures were allowed to enter a 9-day nutrient depletion phase at the end of the second batch run. The following strains were evaluated in winter-season climate-simulated cultures and are listed in the order from highest (7.9 g m -2 day -1 ) to lowest (2.3 g m -2 day -1 ) areal N-replete biomass productivity: Monoraphidium minutum 26B-AM, Tetraselmis striata LANL1001, Chlorella vulgaris LRB AZ-1201, Micractinium reisseri NREL14-F2, Monoraphidium sp. MONOR1, Chlorella vulgaris NREL4-C12, Scenedesmus obliquus UTEX393, Scenedesmus acutus LRB-AP-0401, Nannochloropsis oceanica CCAP849/10, and Stichococcus minutus CCALA727. The following strains were evaluated in summer-season climate-simulated cultures and are listed in the order from highest (31.8 g m -2 day -1 ) to lowest (14.2 g m -2 day -1 ) areal N-replete biomass productivity: Picochlorum renovo NREL39-A8, Scenedesmus obliquus UTEX393, Porphyridium cruentum CCMP675, Picochlorum celeri TG2-WT-CSM/EMRE, Chlorella sorokiniana DOE1116, Stichococcus minor CCMP819, Picochlorum oklahomensis CCMP2329, Chlorella sorokiniana DOE1412 (UTEXB3016), Scenedesmus rubescens NREL46B-D3, Picochlorum soloecismus DOE101, Tetraselmis striata LANL1001, Scenedesmus obliquus DOE 0152.z, and Agmenellum quadruplicatum UTEX2268. All LEAPS cultures experienced a significant reduction in areal biomass productivity in response to nutrient-depletion, from 7-16% in the winter season simulation and up to 1-60% in the summer season simulation. Finally, for 10 of the strains tested, the carbohydrate content more than doubled upon nutrient depletion, and for 9 strains, the lipid content increased by over 50% of the initial content.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Maps of growing season gross primary production and net ecosystem exchange for Council Road Mile Marker 71, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, [2017-2023]

This data archive is in support of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) publication "Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape", by Murphy et al. (2025a). Murphy et al. (2025a) evaluated whether incorporating observed Arctic vegetation heterogeneity into ELM, the land model of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), improved simulations of tundra carbon cycling. The associated model archive can be found at Murphy et al. (2025b). The study focused on the spatial patterns and net landscape-level growing season productivity and carbon uptake. As part of this evaluation, observationally derived maps of average growing season (June–August) net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary production (GPP) were developed for the same domain. These maps, which form the dataset described here, integrate eddy covariance flux tower, remote sensing, and vegetation community data to provide spatially explicit benchmarks for model evaluation. The maps provide spatially explicit estimates of average growing season NEE and GPP across 13 tundra vegetation communities within the study domain. By combining flux tower observations with Airborne Visible-Infrared Imaging Spectrometer-Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) hyperspectral imagery and drone-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), these maps capture the heterogeneity of carbon fluxes associated with different Arctic vegetation types. While they represent average seasonal conditions rather than interannual variability, the maps provide a unique dataset for evaluating model performance, comparing vegetation community contributions to landscape-scale carbon cycling, and supporting regional analyses of Arctic carbon dynamics. This data archive contains 5 m resolution maps of vegetation communities, vegetation community average growing season GPP, and vegetation community average growing season NEE (three *.tif files), a User’s Guide (*pdf file), and Table 1 of the User’s Guide displaying vegetation community coverage and average growing season NEE and GPP values (*.csv file).

Murphy, Bailey [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000203995221)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Warm-season net CO 2 uptake outweighs cold-season emissions over Alaskan North Slope tundra under current and RCP8.5 climate

Abstract Arctic warming has increased vegetation growth and soil respiration during recent decades. The rate of Arctic warming will likely amplify over the 21st century. Previous studies have revealed that the most severe Arctic warming occurred during the cold season (September to May). The cold-season warming has posited significant CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere via respiration, possibly offsetting warm-season (June to August) net CO 2 uptake. However, prevailing Earth system land models poorly represent cold-season CO 2 emissions, making estimates of Arctic tundra annual CO 2 budgets highly uncertain. Here, we demonstrate that an improved version of the energy exascale Earth system model (E3SM) land model (ELMv1-ECA) captures the large amount of cold-season CO 2 emissions over Alaskan Arctic tundra as reported by two independent, observationally-constrained datasets. We found that the recent seven-decades warming trend of cold-season soil temperature is three times that of the warm-season. The climate sensitivity of warm-season net CO 2 uptake, however, is threefold higher than for the cold-season net CO 2 loss, mainly due to stronger plant resilience than microbial resilience to hydroclimatic extremes. Consequently, the modeled warm-season net CO 2 uptake has a larger positive trend (0.74 ± 0.14 gC m −2 yr −1 ) than that of cold-season CO 2 emissions (0.64 ± 0.11 gC m −2 yr −1 ) from 1950 to 2017, supported by enhanced plant nutrient uptake and increased light- and water-use efficiency. With continued warming and elevated CO 2 concentrations under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, the increasing rate of warm-season net CO 2 uptake is more than twice the rate of cold-season emissions (1.33 ± 0.32 gC m −2 yr −1 vs 0.50 ± 0.12 gC m −2 yr −1 ), making the modeled Alaskan Arctic tundra ecosystem a net CO 2 sink by 2100. However, other geomorphological and ecological disturbances (e.g. abrupt permafrost thaw, thermokarst development, landscape-scale hydrological changes, wildfire, and insects) that are not considered here might alter our conclusion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Interannual consistency of migration phenology is season- and breeding region-specific in North American Golden Eagles

Abstract Interannual consistency (an indicator of the strength of adjustments) in migration phenology of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in North America is most strongly associated with the breeding region, the season, and with late-season temperature on breeding and wintering grounds. Consistency was greatest in boreal spring migration and the breeding regions of eastern Canada. Using multi-year GPS tracks of 83 adults breeding in 3 spatially distant regions (Alaska, northeast Canada, and southeast Canada), we quantified the interannual consistency of migration phenology and wintering latitude within and among individuals tracked across multiple years and the repeatability (r) by breeding regions and seasons. By comparing regions and seasons, we found that consistency was highest (r > 0.85) for boreal spring migration in eastern Canada while Alaska had the lowest value (r < 0.15). Because seasonal consistency of migration phenology was only detected in eastern Canada, we conclude that seasonal features are not a primary constraint. While regional differences in consistency were not related to differences in migratory distances, they could be the result of genetic or habitat differences. We also found that temperatures warmer than the decadal average at the region of departure delayed the start of boreal spring migration by ~10 days and advanced boreal autumn migration by ~20 days. These results suggest that warmer temperatures would reduce residence time on breeding grounds, contrary to expectations and trends found in other studies. Wide variations in migratory strategies across a species distribution can add to the list of challenges for conservation but may give migrants the capacity to acclimate to environmental changes.

Zoology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for Impact of Vertical and Seasonal Variation in Leaf Traits on Simulating Soybean Canopy Photosynthesis via 1D and 3D Modeling

Accurate modeling of photosynthesis is crucial for predicting crop productivity and quantifying the carbon cycle in agroecosystems. Leaf traits are essential inputs for modeling canopy photosynthesis. Yet, many existing models still use fixed plant functional type (PTF)-based values to parameterize leaf traits under a big-leaf or two-big-leaf assumption, neglecting their vertical profiles and seasonal changes. This simplification may introduce significant uncertainties in estimating gross primary productivity (GPP). In this study, we simulated soybean GPP and tested the effects of vertical and seasonal variation in three key leaf photosynthetic traits: the maximum carboxylation rate at 25 °C (Vcmax25), leaf chlorophyll content (LCC), and leaf mass per area (LMA) in the 1D-SCOPE and 3D-Helios models. Weekly field measurements were conducted during the growing season of 2024 to support the simulation. We designed ten leaf trait parameterization schemes by incorporating different combinations of vertical profiles and seasonal changes, while assuming homogeneous canopy architecture in both models. Our results revealed that Vcmax25 vertical and seasonal variation had the strongest influence on simulated GPP in both 1D and 3D models, while LCC and LMA effects were minimal. Particularly, the scheme with an empirically parameterized Vcmax25 profile achieved comparable performance to the scheme with the measured Vcmax25 profile. Both 1D-SCOPE and 3D-Helios accurately modeled GPP (SCOPE: R2 = 0.87, Bias = 0.55 µmol m⁻² s⁻¹; Helios: R2 = 0.9, Bias = 0.22 µmol m⁻² s⁻¹) under the most complex scheme, and their responses to vertical and seasonal variation in leaf traits were consistent, demonstrating the robustness of our findings. Based on our findings, we propose a scalable framework for parameterizing leaf traits to improve GPP simulations. This study contributes to improving the representation of leaf trait dynamics in canopy-level photosynthesis models, potentially enhancing our ability to predict crop productivity and understand agroecosystem carbon dynamics.

Photosynthesis↗
NASA NTRS2024

Celebrating 10 Years of the Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project and Looking to the Future

The conference clearly demonstrated the increasing interest and growth of the scientific community working on the development and application of sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction since the start of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)/World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project in 2013. The conference, which was held at the University of Reading (United Kingdom), was organized into three main themes as briefly summarized below, with eleven invited talks, 74 oral contributed talks, and 101 posters. The conference also included a two-hour breakout session, wherein eight groups discussed the current state and prospect for S2S prediction, and an early career researcher event. A summary of these discussions and recommendations is presented below. The conference web page (https://research.reading.ac.uk/s2s-summit2023/) is archived at the University of Reading. Introductory comments by representatives of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) WWRP and WCRP emphasized the importance of the weather–climate linkage, targeted by S2S forecasts (from 2 weeks to a season ahead), addressing the challenges of creating “end-to-end” forecasts that encompass the entire climate-services chain from the prediction science and forecast, to the development and issuing of forecast products tailored to informing user-decisions. They also emphasized the efficacy of multi-model ensemble efforts and databases to foster collaborations internationally and between operational centres and academia. Although the WWRP/WCRP S2S project comes to an end in 2023, S2S prediction will remain an important focus for WWRP and WCRP. In WWRP, a new project called SAGE (Sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions for Agriculture and Environment) will start in 2024. Another important legacy of the S2S project will be the maintenance of the S2S database (Vitart et al. 2017) and the establishment of a WMO Lead Center for sub-seasonal prediction multi-model ensemble (LC-SSPMME) which will provide real-time multi-model S2S climate information. In two keynote presentations, Prof. Brian Hoskins (University of Reading) and Dr. Gilbert Brunet (Australian Bureau of Meteorology) discussed the potential of S2S predictability and the ongoing journey for understanding and improving these predictions. This conference was a sequel to the International Conference on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (Robertson et al., 2014) which took place in College Park (Maryland, USA) in February 2014 to celebrate the start of the WWRP/WCRP S2S project, and to WCRP and WWRP conferences in Boulder, USA, in 2018 (Merryfield et al., 2020). A significant development compared to the previous S2S conferences was the large number of presentations on research to operation (R2O) and S2S applications and on the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) methods for S2S prediction. Some of these methods provide empirical S2S forecasts which are competitive with state-of-the-art dynamical models. Other presentations demonstrated that AI/ML can provide alternative calibration of dynamical model outputs to traditional methods. Several talks and posters highlighted the increasing use of AI/ML, including deep learning, in S2S forecast post-processing and using AI to identify higher flow-dependent skill. Finally, some presentations demonstrated the value of AI/ML methods for a better understanding of S2S sources of predictability and attribution of extreme events.

S. J. Woolnough↗
DOE OSTI2021

Carbon content of soil fractions varies with season, rainfall, and soil fertility across a lowland tropical moist forest gradient

Tropical forests contain some of the largest soil carbon (C) stocks on Earth, making them broadly relevant to terrestrial-climate feedbacks, yet our understanding of how their soil organic C (SOC) fractions vary over space and time is limited. We studied effects of season, fertility, and mean annual precipitation (MAP) on the C contents of soil fractions across 14 lowland forests in Panama. We measured free-debris, occluded-debris, and mineral-associated SOC fractions, as well as soluble C associated with each fraction. We hypothesized that mineral-associated SOC would be greatest in infertile, strongly weathered soils with large reactive mineral contents. We also hypothesized that the debris SOC fractions would accumulate during the dry season, reflecting seasonal increases in litterfall. To address this, we compared soil fractions in wet and dry seasons from fertile and infertile soils across a range of 1809 – 2864 mm MAP. The C content (mg C / g soil) of all soil fractions varied with fertility and MAP: specifically, free-debris SOC was greatest in wet, high-fertility soils, and occluded-debris SOC was greater in high-fertility than low-fertility soils. The mineral-associated SOC fraction, which contained the majority of bulk soil C, showed increasing C content with greater MAP in infertile sites, presumably driving similar spatial patterns in the bulk soil. Only the free-debris SOC fraction showed strong seasonal variation, increasing in mass during the dry season. Nitrogen behaved similarly to C. In summary, soil C contents increased with MAP in infertile sites but not fertile sites, driven by the mineral-associated SOC fraction. The dry season had greater free-debris SOC, but this seasonal trend was not apparent in bulk soil C, likely because of the small size of the free-debris SOC fraction. Furthermore, changes in the quantity and seasonality of precipitation, which are projected for tropical forests, might shift spatial and temporal patterns of soil C storage, which would in turn influence forest-climate feedbacks for this C-rich biome.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Wave energy in season: a comparative approach to feasibility of seasonal deployments for remote coastal communities

Remote coastal communities, which could be early adopters of wave energy projects, have concerns over costs, conflicts, and potential risks of development. Designers and developers are challenged to address these community concerns as they continue to develop wave energy technologies. One potential means of reducing costs, conflicts, and risks, especially for demonstration and pilot-scale projects, could be planning a deployment that operates for only a portion of the year—a seasonal deployment. Here, in this paper, we examine the impacts of a seasonal deployment in terms of cost, electricity production, operations and maintenance, environmental impacts, and community benefits. We take a holistic, comparative approach to feasibility that can be replicated for other comparative studies. We estimate electricity production using a point absorber WEC modeled near Sitka, AK, USA and optimized for the given sea conditions. We determine that, for remote community sized projects, seasonal deployments could result in small cost savings (less than 10 %), but larger decreases in annual energy production (around 30 % for our case study area). Seasonal deployments could be preferable in places with seasonal energy needs, if failures and device access become a major hindrance to wave energy technology development, or as a cautionary approach to introducing new technology to the oceans. We also determine that a highly seasonal wave resource is not necessarily a requirement for seasonal deployments to be considered. Seasonal deployments are an alternative to year-round deployments that can be considered in places where marine spatial conflict is a seasonal concern.

WEC optimizations↗
DOE OSTI2020

The impacts of horizontal resolution on the seasonally-dependent biases of the northeastern Pacific ITCZ in coupled climate models.

Double-ITCZ has puzzled climate model community for more than two decades. Here, we found that over the eastern Pacific, precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) biases in the NCAR CESM1 are seasonally-dependent, with positive (negative) precipitation/SST biases during boreal summer/fall (winter/spring), although the easterly wind bias persists around the year. This seasonally-dependent bias of precipitation/SST is found to be caused by the failure of the model to reproduce the climatological seasonal wind reversal of North American monsoon. During winter/spring, the climatological easterly wind dominates, so the stronger wind speed in the model enhances the evaporation and lowers the SST. It is opposite when the climatological wind turns to westerly during summer/fall. The easterly wind bias also occurs in the atmospheric model when the observation SST is prescribed, suggesting it is of atmospheric origin. Further, the easterly wind bias is mainly evident in the lower troposphere and quite independent of time, implying the effect of complex and narrow-ranged Central American topography, which is not depicted well in the coarse model resolution. When the model resolution is doubled, both SST and precipitation are improved with the reduced easterly wind bias. During boreal spring, when ITCZ bias is most significant, the northern and southern ITCZ can be improved by 29% and 18.8% respectively in the higher resolution. Finally, we suggest that these seasonally-dependent biases over the eastern Pacific are quite universal among 37 CMIP5 coupled models, and the ongoing CMIP6 project will provide a valuable opportunity to examine whether the bias can be reduced by increasing model resolution.

Song, Fengfei↗
DOE OSTI2023

Carbon Outgassing in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current Is Supported by Ekman Transport From the Sea Ice Zone in an Observation‐Based Seasonal Mixed‐Layer Budget

Despite its importance for the global cycling of carbon, there are still large gaps in our understanding of the processes driving annual and seasonal carbon fluxes in the high-latitude Southern Ocean. This is due in part to a historical paucity of observations in this remote, turbulent, and seasonally ice-covered region. Here, we use autonomous biogeochemical float data spanning 6 full seasonal cycles and with circumpolar coverage of the Southern Ocean, complemented by atmospheric reanalysis, to construct a monthly climatology of the mixed layer budget of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). We investigate the processes that determine the annual mean and seasonal cycle of DIC fluxes in two different zones of the Southern Ocean—the Sea Ice Zone (SIZ) and Antarctic Southern Zone (ASZ). We find that, annually, mixing with carbon-rich waters at the base of the mixed layer supplies DIC which is, in the ASZ, either used for net biological production or outgassed to the atmosphere. In contrast, in the SIZ, where carbon outgassing and the biological pump are weaker, the surplus of DIC is instead advected northward to the ASZ. In other words, carbon outgassing in the southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), which has been attributed to remineralized carbon from deep water upwelled in the ACC, is also due to the wind-driven transport of DIC from the SIZ. These results stem from the first observation-based carbon budget of the circumpolar Southern Ocean and thus provide a useful benchmark to evaluate climate models, which have significant biases in this region.

Sauvé, Jade↗
NASA NTRS2021

Developing a Hydrological Monitoring and Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting System for South and Southeast Asian River Basins

South and Southeast Asia is subject to significant hydrometeorological extremes, including drought. Under rising temperatures, growing populations, and an apparent weakening of the South Asian monsoon in recent decades, concerns regarding drought and its potential impacts on water and food security are on the rise. Reliable sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) hydrological forecasts could, in principle, help governments and international organizations to better assess risk and act in the face of an oncoming drought. Here, we leverage recent improvements in S2S meteorological forecasts and the growing power of Earth Observations to provide more accurate monitoring of hydrological states for forecast initialization. Information from both sources is merged in a South and Southeast Asia sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting system (SAHFS-S2S), developed collaboratively with the NASA SERVIR program and end-users across the region. This system applies the Noah-MultiParameterization (NoahMP) Land Surface Model (LSM) in the NASA Land Information System (LIS), driven by downscaled meteorological fields from the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) and Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation products (CHIRP and CHIRPS) to optimize initial conditions. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model - sub-seasonal to seasonal (GEOS-S2S) forecasts, downscaled using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Analog Regression Downscaling (GARD) tool and quantile mapping, are then applied to drive 5-km resolution hydrological forecasts to a 9-month forecast time horizon. Results show that the skillful predictions of root zone soil moisture can be made one to two months in advance for forecasts initialized in rainy seasons and up to 8 months when initialized in dry seasons. The memory of accurate initial conditions can positively contribute to forecast skills throughout the entire 9-month prediction period in areas with limited precipitation. This SAHFS-S2S has been operationalized at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) to support drought monitoring and warning needs in the region.

Yifan Zhou↗
NASA NTRS1999

Statistical Aspects of Major (Intense) Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin During the Past 49 Hurricane Seasons (1950-1998): Implications for the Current Season

Statistical aspects of major (intense) hurricanes, those of category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale (e.g., having a maximum sustained wind speed of greater than or equal to 50 M s (exp -1)), in the Atlantic basin during the interval of 1950-1998 are investigated in relation to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle and to the postulated "more" versus "less" activity modes for intense hurricane activity. Based on Poisson statistics, when the hurricane season is simply classified as "non-El Nino-related" (NENR), the probability of having three or more intense hurricanes is approx. 53%, while it is only approx. 14% when it is classified as "El Nino-related" (ENR). Including the activity levels ("more" versus "less"), the probability of having three or more intense hurricanes is computed to be approx. 71% for the "more-NENR" season, 30% for the "less-NENR" season, 17% for the "more-ENR" season, and 12% for the "less-ENR" season. Because the 1999 hurricane season is believed to be a "more-NENR" season, the number of intense hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin should be above average in number, probably about 4 plus or minus 1 or higher.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Balancing Water Sustainability and Productivity Objectives in Microalgae Cultivation: Siting Open Ponds by Considering Seasonal Water-Stress Impact Using AWARE-US

Microalgae have great potential as an energy crop. Scaling-up algal biofuel production in the United States (US) should be done with careful attention to water stress. This study evaluates the regional and seasonal water-stress impact of potential algae-pond deployments in the US. Three site-selection strategies focusing on biomass yield, water-use efficiency (WUE), and water-stress impact, respectively, are applied and compared to meet a US algae biomass production target of 30 million metric tons/yr ash-free dry weight, which converts to 20.8 billion L renewable diesel, via hydrothermal liquefaction. Ranking algae ponds based on biomass yield leads to freshwater consumption of 2.66 km3/yr, resulting in the highest water-stress impact (39.1 US equivalent km3). Under the WUE scenario, water consumption is reduced by 81%, but biomass yield is reduced by 12%. In contrast, adding a water-stress constraint to the biomass-yield ranking reduces water consumption by 50% and water-stress impact by 97%, with a small yield reduction (1.7%). Results show that pond location has a significant effect on water stress and that water stress is not proportional to water consumption or yield. Furthermore, capturing seasonal water patterns is critical for planning because sites in water-abundant regions can have short-term but significant water-stress impacts.

algae, Biofuel, water scarcity footprint, hydrothe↗
NASA NTRS1999

Statistical Aspects of Intense Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin during the Past 49 Hurricane Seasons (1950-1998): Implications for the Current Season

Statistical aspects of intense hurricanes (those of category 3 or higher) in the Atlantic basin during the interval of 1950-1998 are investigated in relation to the ENSO cycle and to the postulated 'more versus less' activity modes for intense hurricane activity. Because the 1999 hurricane season likely will be classified as a 'non-El Nino-related' (NENR) season and that the more active mode appears to be in vogue, an above average seasonal rate of greater than or equal to 2 intense hurricanes is to be expected (probably, about 4 +/- 1, or higher). Based on Poisson statistics, when the hurricane season is classified as NENR the probability of greater than or equal to 2 events is about 77%, whereas when the season is classified as NENR and the more active mode is operative it is about 87%. The probability of greater than or equal to 4 events is about 31 % and 48 %, respectively, for these two activity classes.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Seasonal Variations of Arctic Low-Level Clouds and its Linkage to Sea Ice Seasonal Variations

Using CALIPSO-CloudSat-Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES)-Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) (C3M) dataset, this study documents the seasonal variation of sea ice, cloud, and related atmospheric properties in the Arctic region (70°N–82°N) during the period 2007-2010. The surface type stratification used reveals the surface type influence on the Arctic cloud liquid water path (LWP)seasonality. Four surface types are defined: i) Permanent Ocean, ii) Land, iii) Permanent Ice, and iv) Transient Sea Ice. The Transient Ice regions are further divided into sub-regions according to the onset dates of melt/freeze season. Results show that the sea ice cover has no significant direct influence on the seasonal variation of the water vapor in the lower troposphere and the low-level cloud LWP. Rather, the role played by sea ice appear indirect by modifying the surface temperature response to increased solar insolation and influencing lower tropospheric stability (LTS). The results suggest that the combined increase in atmospheric water vapor due to warming air temperatures and the weakening of the inversion strength that governs the seasonal structure of cloud LWP. Over Transient Ice regions, the results suggest that the May peak in LWP coincides with a decrease in LTS and that is insensitive to melt and freeze onset. Variations in melt and freeze onset set are found to influence probably distribution of cloud LWP where regions of earlier melt and later freeze onset how a higher likelihood of larger values.

Yueyue Yu↗
NASA NTRS2018

GEOS S2S-2_1 File Specification: GMAO Seasonal and Sub-Seasonal Forecast Output

The NASA GMAO seasonal (9 months) and subseasonal (45 days) forecasts are produced with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model and Data Assimilation System Version S2S-2_1. The new system replaces version S2S-1.0 described in Borovikov et al (2017), and includes upgrades to many components of the system. The atmospheric model includes an upgrade from a pre-MERRA-2 version running on a latitude-longitude grid at approx. 1 degree resolution to a current version running on a cubed sphere grid at approximately 1/2 degree resolution. The important developments are related to the dynamical core (Putman et al., 2011), the moist physics (''two-moment microphysics'' of Barahona et al., 2014) and the cryosphere (Cullather et al., 2014). As in the previous GMAO S2S system, the land model is that of Koster et al (2000). GMAO S2S-2_1 now includes the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART, Colarco et al., 2010) single moment interactive aerosol model that includes predictive aerosols including dust, sea salt and several species of carbon and sulfate. The previous version of GMAO S2S specified aerosol amounts from climatology, which were used to inform the atmospheric radiation only. The ocean model includes an upgrade from MOM4 to MOM5 (Griffies 2012), and continues to be run on the tripolar grid at approximately 1/2 degree resolution in the tropics with 40 vertical levels. As in S2S-1.0, the sea ice model is from the Los Alamos Sea Ice model (CICE4, Hunke and Lipscomb 2010). The Ocean Data Assimilation System (ODAS) has been upgraded from the one described in Borovikov et al., 2017 to one that uses a modified version of the Penny, 2014 Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF), and now assimilates along-track altimetry. The ODAS also does a nudging to MERRA-2 SST and sea ice boundary conditions. The atmospheric data assimilation fields used to constrain the atmosphere in the ODAS have been upgraded from MERRA to a MERRA-2 like system. The system is initialized using a MERRA-2-like atmospheric reanalysis (Gelaro et al. 2017) and the GMAO S2S-2_1 ocean analysis. Additional ensemble members for forecasts are produced with initial states at 5-day intervals, with additional members based on perturbations of the atmospheric and ocean states. Both subseasonal and seasonal forecasts are submitted to the National MultiModel Ensemble (NMME) project, and are part of the US/Canada multimodel seasonal forecasts (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/). A large suite of retrospective forecasts (''hindcasts'') have been completed, and contribute to the calculation of the model's baseline climatology and drift, anomalies from which are the basis of the seasonal forecasts.

Seasonal Forecast↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atmospheric River Detection Under Changing Seasonality and Mean-State Climate: ARTMIP Tier 2 Paleoclimate Experiments

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are filamentary structures within the atmosphere that account for a substantial portion of poleward moisture transport and play an important role in Earth's hydroclimate. However, there is no one quantitative definition for what constitutes an atmospheric river, leading to uncertainty in quantifying how these systems respond to global change. This study seeks to better understand how different AR detection tools (ARDTs) respond to changes in climate states utilizing single-forcing climate model experiments under the aegis of the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP). We compare a simulation with an early Holocene orbital configuration and another with CO2 levels of the Last Glacial Maximum to a preindustrial control simulation to test how the ARDTs respond to changes in seasonality and mean climate state, respectively. We find good agreement among the algorithms in the AR response to the changing orbital configuration, with a poleward shift in AR frequency that tracks seasonal poleward shifts in atmospheric water vapor and zonal winds. In the low CO2 simulation, the algorithms generally agree on the sign of AR changes, but there is substantial spread in their magnitude, indicating that mean-state changes lead to larger uncertainty. This disagreement likely arises primarily from differences between algorithms in their thresholds for water vapor and its transport used for identifying ARs. These findings warrant caution in ARDT selection for paleoclimate and climate change studies in which there is a change to the mean climate state, as ARDT selection contributes substantial uncertainty in such cases.

Atmospheric river, paleoclimate↗