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Watching the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam from a distance: Implications for sustainable water management of the Nile water

Increased demands for sustainable water and energy resources in densely populated basins have led to the construction of dams, which impound waters in artificial reservoirs. In many cases, scarce field data led to the development of models that underestimated the seepage losses from reservoirs and ignored the role of extensive fault networks as preferred pathways for groundwater flow. We adopt an integrated approach (remote sensing, hydrologic modeling, and field observations) to assess the magnitude and nature of seepage from such systems using the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Africa's largest hydropower project, as a test site. The dam was constructed on the Blue Nile within steep, highly fractured, and weathered terrain in the western Ethiopian Highlands. The GERD Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Terrestrial Water Storage (GRACETWS), seasonal peak difference product, reveals significant mass accumulation (43 ± 5 BCM) in the reservoir and seepage in its surroundings with progressive south-southwest mass migration along mapped structures between 2019 and 2022. Seepage, but not a decrease in inflow or increase in outflow, could explain, at least in part, the observed drop in the reservoir's water level and volume following each of the three fillings. Using mass balance calculations and GRACETWS observations, we estimate significant seepage (19.8 ± 6 BCM) comparable to the reservoir's impounded waters (19.9 ± 1.2 BCM). Investigating and addressing the seepage from the GERD will ensure sustainable development and promote regional cooperation; overlooking the seepage would compromise hydrological modeling efforts on the Nile Basin and misinform ongoing negotiations on the Nile water management.

GRACE and GRACE-FO

IrrigationViz: A Geospatial Visualization Application to Facilitate Irrigation Modernization

Irrigation water delivery infrastructure, such as canals and pipelines, are essential to agriculture in the Western U.S., yet many of these systems are reaching the end of their useful lives. Reinvestment can achieve a wide variety of benefits, from water conservation to energy savings or renewable energy generation. Modernization requires significant planning, design, and implementation funding which can be a challenge for many irrigation districts. Here, this paper introduces IrrigationViz, a web-based mapping application designed to help irrigation districts visualize and generate high-level cost and benefit estimates for infrastructure modernization projects. These estimates can help water managers identify projects that benefit from additional engineering resources and ultimately obtain funding. IrrigationViz includes map interactions, graphs, and visualization components to facilitate planning and communication to stakeholders and funders. IrrigationViz combines user-provided information about a water-delivery system with public datasets and basic engineering formulas to generate estimates of the benefits of reinvestment. Estimates include the amount of water seepage in earthen canals, potential hydropower generation associated with replacing a canal with a pressurized pipe, and pipe size recommendations. We found that hydropower generation estimates compared favorably with real world projects, but seepage loss estimates showed high variability relative to on-the-ground measurements

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS

An experimental study on gas-liquid phase fluid migration in hydrate-bearing sediments during hydrate dissociation

Natural gas hydrate production tests face problems such as severe sand blockage, poor gas-liquid phase separation, and significant land subsidence. This is because of the insufficient understanding of the complex phase transition and gas-liquid multi-phase fluid migration during hydrate dissociation. In hydrate-bearing sediment systems, hydrate phase transition couples with gas-liquid fluid migration. The phase transition causes changes in pore structure, which in turn modifies porous infiltration parameters and fluid flow capacity. Meanwhile, alterations in phase interfaces affect key parameters like surface tension and wettability. Gas-liquid fluid migration influences heat and mass transfer, thus affecting phase equilibrium and dissociation rates. To bridge the gap in describing gas-liquid fluid migration during hydrate dissociation in experiments, this research innovatively integrated an unsteady-state gas displacement by water and a quantitative hydrate dissociation process, independently developed a multi-phase seepage experimental system suitable for hydrate dissociation and determined the relationship between seepage parameters and hydrate saturation under different porosity. The results are as follows: a) Core samples with higher initial porosity show a greater recovery rate of fluid flow capacity. b) The retarding effect of multi-phase fluid has a more significant impact on the migration of the wetting phase fluid (water) than that of the non-wetting phase fluid (methane). c) During hydrate dissociation, the evolution of absolute permeability shows an “S-shaped” pattern, and the evolution of relative permeability shows a “wiring-harness” pattern. In conclusion, the findings can provide a theoretical basis for preventing geological disasters and for geotechnical engineering design during hydrate production.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Improbability of Post-Closure Criticality in Array of Transuranic Waste Containers after Compaction by Salt Creep at Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

Based on the rationale presented, post-closure nuclear criticality is improbable when room closure compacts containers disposing transuranic (TRU) waste emplaced at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), an operating repository in bedded salt in southeastern New Mexico. As described in the original WIPP certification, a qualitative estimate of the probability of post-closure criticality in TRU waste produced from atomic energy defense activities has been low either because remote-handled TRU waste canisters are neutronically isolated by the bedded salt or because the low fissile mass in an array of contact-handled TRU waste drums cannot be compacted sufficiently by room closure from salt creep. These situations are still valid for the majority of TRU waste that is disposed at WIPP without any disposal constraints, as updated herein. This report also qualitatively evaluates the probability of criticality after disposal of TRU waste in pipe overpack containers (POC) where every POC in a shipment may have the maximum 200 fissile gram equivalent of 239Pu content. The probability of criticality for a disposal room filled with POCs is estimated during four representative phases of repository evolution: (1) a large salt block falls onto POCs in the first 20 years, (2) salt creep closes a disposal room in the first 1000 years without brine seepage and subsequent gas generation, which permits maximum compaction, (3) some brine seepage occurs into the closed room, which initiates consumption of the fiberboard (cellulose) impact absorber in the POC in the second 1000 years, and (4) full brine inundation of a room and consumption of all fiberboard thereafter. Salt-block fall in the first phase does not greatly disrupt three tiers of POCs. The compacted spacing of POCs in the later three repository conditions is calculated through high-fidelity, geomechanical modeling. Criticality evaluation of compacted 200-g 239 Pu spheres at the compacted spacing shows that neither 12-inch nor 6-inch POCs are critical after the first 1000 years, the second 1000 years, or thereafter as the sea of reflector material changes to represent the three repository conditions. Specifically, fiberboard and iron isolates 239 Pu while dry, and brine reduces the reactivity when a room is partially and fully inundated. Because POC behavior bounds behavior of other standard TRU waste containers, post-closure criticality caused by room closure compacting containers is omitted in the performance assessments for the 2019 and 2026 WIPP compliance re-certification applications to the US Environmental Protection Agency.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W

Characteristics of Fluid‐Solid Interaction Constitutive Models Within Poroelastodynamics at Higher Strain‐Rates and Large Deformations Implemented in 1D

The large deformation, mixed formulation, finite element (FE) modeling approach presented in Irwin et al. 2024 is extended herein to include improved constitutive models for representing dynamic solid-fluid interactions at higher strain rates (𝒪⁢(1⁢0 2 −1⁢0 3 )⁢s −1 ) and larger overpressure magnitudes (𝒪⁡(1⁢0 2 )⁢kPa) within a biphasic soft porous material using Theory of Porous Media (TPM) at finite strain. Specifically, these constitutive modeling improvements are the following: (i) a more physically robust constitutive model for pore fluid seepage velocity via inclusion of pore fluid viscous stress, and (ii) a modified deformation-dependent-permeability model and updated hyperelastic constitutive model better suited for handling larger volumetric compressions and extensions. The novelty of the present work is mainly the contribution (i): inclusion of pore fluid viscous stress at higher strain-rate and large deformations, which requires 𝐶 1 continuity in the weak formulation, accomplished by employing Hermite cubic interpolation functions within a mixed nonlinear poromechanical finite element formulation. In (ii), the model is updated to weakly enforce solid phase incompressibility, such that this assumption is not violated numerically, which provides improved numerical stability for achieving larger overpressure magnitudes on 𝒪⁡(1⁢0 2 ) kPa, which were not achievable with the previous Kozeny–Carman model in Irwin et al. 2024. Also in (ii), the volumetric part of the solid skeleton free energy function is modified to ensure proper bounds on the solid skeleton Jacobian of deformation 𝐽 s related to incompressibility of the solid phase. Uniaxial strain, unidirectional flow examples at higher strain rates (𝒪⁢(1⁢0 2 −1⁢0 3 )⁢s −1 ) and larger deformations (up to 0.2 (or 20%) nominal axial strain) demonstrate the improved physical representation—and numerical stability—of these constitutive model improvements.

42 ENGINEERING

Modeling gas, hydrates, and slope stability on the U.S. Atlantic margin during Pleistocene glacial cycles

Changes in temperature and sea level can cause dissociation of methane hydrates in shallow marine sediments, leading to seafloor destabilization. Along the U.S. Atlantic margin, there exists a well-documented history of slope failure and numerous recorded occurrences of gas seeps. Several studies have linked slope failure in the region to gas seepage and hydrate dissociation driven by glacial-interglacial transitions, but this linkage has not been quantitatively demonstrated. Along the shelf edge, in an area where shallow methane gas seeps have been identified, we modeled methane gas and hydrate formation using a one-dimensional fluid flow model. Methane gas formation was modeled over the last 120,000 years to simulate a glacial-interglacial cycle. Here, we ran this model at 16,044 individual locations in the region between 29° N – 45° N and 82° W – 66° W at a resolution of 1 x 1 arcminutes, focusing specifically on water depths between 200 and 1000 m that bracket the seafloor outcrop of the base of the hydrate stability zone. Using historic temperature and pressure records from the last 120,000 years, sediment properties in the area, and factor of safety calculations, we found that hydrate dissociation alone is unlikely to cause sediment failure in the region, implying that an additional driving force would be necessary for failure to occur.

Hydrate dissociation

Proof-of-concept chemometric approach for environmental forensic sourcing of crude oil samples using SPME-GC-MS

Environmental exposure to crude oil through seepage and spillage poses risks to the immediate environment and the broader ecosystem as areas along the oil distribution path are affected by the influx of crude petroleum as well as the environmental, economic, and civil unrest that accompanies it. There is a large financial burden associated with the lost resources, including the cost of rehabilitation, and the affected sources of revenue for communities affected by oil spills. As such, it is crucial to determine the responsible parties. This work outlines an environmental forensics approach to determining the source of an un-weathered crude oil sample. The researchers employed solid phase microextraction coupled with gas chromatography mass spectrometry (SPME-GC-MS) to capture and analyze the gaseous components emitted by crude oil samples sourced from five locations. Samples were analyzed using Spearman's rank correlation and 3D covariance analysis. Both chemometric approaches yielded optimal performance results with no misclassifications, true positive rate (TPR) = 100 % and false positive rate (FPR) = 0 %. The similarity metrics calculated by each test noted clear delineations between the values of same-source and differently sourced samples. The Spearman's rank correlation test and 3D covariance calculations both demonstrated the ability to correctly identify sample source origin in this dataset. Finally, the authors outline an approach to the future application of these tests and suggest their joint use in future crude oil sourcing endeavors.

3D covariance mapping

Predicting multiphase flow and tracer transport for an underground chemical explosive test

Detecting radionuclide gas seepage from clandestine underground nuclear tests is central to nonproliferation explosion monitoring research. Yet, early-time (<6 day) gas transport driven by the explosive pressure wave remains poorly constrained due to scarcity of field data. We simulate multi-phase gas transport in the vadose zone using pre-shot data from a recent chemical explosion in P-Tunnel at the Nevada National Security Site, USA. Despite using a simplified 2D-radial model, predictions of tracer arrival matched observations within one order-of-magnitude. Our results show how transient blast forcing rapidly mobilizes gases from the cavity into surrounding rock – critical for optimizing sensor placement and test planning. This unique integration of field data and modeling represents a significant improvement in our ability to predict gas migration from underground explosions. More broadly, it offers insights into the coupled dynamics of pressure waves and contaminant transport in the vadose zone, with implications for monitoring and hazard assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Temporal and spatial characterization of a thermogenic, fault-controlled gas hydrate system, Woolsey Mound, Gulf of Mexico

Woolsey Mound, located at Mississippi Canyon Lease Block 118 (MC118), is the site of the Gulf of Mexico hydrate research consortium’s seafloor observatory, where gas hydrates outcrop at the seafloor. The presence of gas hydrates in the mound is confirmed directly by coring and indirectly by 3D seismic reflection data. Craters, pockmarks, chemosynthetic communities, and authigenic carbonates populate the seafloor at Woolsey Mound. Each crater is characterized by a network of shallow crestal faults that connect the hydrate mound to the underlying allochthonous salt body. We characterize the temporal and spatial evolution of gas hydrates at Woolsey Mound under natural perturbations using four collocated 3D seismic reflection data sets that span over 14 years. Data acquisition differences embedded in the data sets arising from variation in geometry, sample rate, and phase are minimized using the “cross-equalization” method. Our results indicate that hydrate formation and dissociation vary temporally and spatially in close connection to the shallow crestal faults. Evidence of gas hydrate dissociation is observed over a period of three years (2000–2003), where major dissociation occurred along the southern portion of the crestal fault in the southeast crater. The dissociation is less prominent in the southwest crater. Evidence of methane venting is observed between 2000 and 2010, which is mostly concentrated in the southeast crater. The residual amplitude anomalies observed between 2000 and 2014 in the mound are mostly positive, implying that the methane venting had increased significantly. The positive anomalies are correlated with the methane seepage recorded in 2011. Our results indicate the evolution of a fault-controlled gas hydrate system in the northern Gulf of Mexico, which would aid in assessing its impact on the seafloor.

Geochemistry & Geophysics

Surface Water Quality Data from Beaver-Impacted Streams; Trail Creek and East River, Colorado 2025

This data package contains surface water chemistry measurements collected in 2025 to evaluate how beaver damming and low-tech process-based stream restoration influence water quality and metal mobility in mountainous headwater systems of the Upper Colorado River Basin. Sampling was conducted at Trail Creek (Taylor Park watershed, Colorado), a tributary undergoing restoration through installation of low-tech process-based structures (i.e., beaver dam analogs), and at off-channel beaver ponds within the East River floodplain (East River watershed, Colorado). Samples were collected along longitudinal transects spanning upstream control reaches, beaver-influenced ponded reaches, and downstream segments. Additional samples were collected from near-surface pore waters within a beaver dam seepage face. The dataset includes concentrations of major and trace elements measured by inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and inductively coupled plasma–optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES), major anions measured by ion chromatography (IC), and dissolved organic carbon (DOC; reported as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC). Samples were size-fractionated at 0.45 micrometers (µm), 0.22 µm, and 0.02 µm to distinguish particulate (>0.45 µm), colloidal (0.22–0.02 µm), and dissolved (<0.02 µm) fractions. The data package consists of comma-separated value (.csv) files containing tabulated chemical concentration data, sample metadata (site identifiers, geographic coordinates, sampling dates, fraction type), and quality control flags. All files are provided in open, non-proprietary formats that can be accessed using standard data analysis software such as Microsoft Excel, R, Python, MATLAB, or other programs capable of reading .csv files. Units, detection limits, and analytical methods are documented in accompanying metadata files. The dataset is designed to support analyses of (1) how beaver impoundment and restoration structures alter elemental partitioning and transport, (2) the role of iron and organic carbon in mediating trace metal mobility, and (3) reach-scale changes in water quality across restoration gradients. This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. Part of this work was performed at SLAC Accelerator Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-76SF00515.

Anions

Improbability of Post-Closure Criticality in Compacted Criticality Control Overpacks after Room Closure at Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

As part of its periodic re-certification of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), an operating repository in bedded salt for the disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste from atomic energy defense activities, the United States Environmental Protection Agency expects a re-evaluation of features, events, and processes, such as post-closure nuclear criticality. Although salt creep beneficially encapsulates the TRU waste in the closed WIPP repository, the spacing between an array of waste packages is disrupted as the salt creep closes disposal rooms and containers lose structural integrity. For most TRU waste, the possibility of post-closure criticality is exceedingly small either because the salt neutronically isolates TRU waste canisters or because closure of a disposal room from salt creep does not sufficiently compact the low mass of fissile material. The criticality evaluation was updated, however, because of the introduction of criticality control overpack (CCO) containers, which may dispose up to 380 fissile gram equivalent plutonium-239 in each container. The criticality potential is evaluated through high-fidelity geomechanical modeling of a disposal room filled with CCO containers during two representative conditions: (1) large salt block fall, and (2) gradual disposal room closure from salt creep. Geomechanical models of roof fall demonstrate three tiers of CCO containers are not greatly disrupted. Geomechanical models of gradual room closure from salt creep (without brine seepage and subsequent gas generation to permit maximum room closure) were used to predict irregular arrays of closely packed CCOs after 1000 years, when room closure has asymptotically approached maximum compaction. Models of spheres or cylinders with 380 fissile gram equivalent of plutonium (as oxide) at the predicted irregular compacted spacing demonstrate that an array of CCO containers is not critical when surrounded by salt and magnesium oxide, provided the mass of hydrogenous material shipped in CCO containers (usually plastics) is controlled or boron carbide (a neutron poison) is mixed with the fissile contents.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W