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Recent seismicity at Ceboruco Volcano (Mexico)

Magma and related hydrothermal fluid movement, and their interaction with solid rock, in active volcanic regions, generate a wide variety of seismic waves whose characterization can mitigate the risk of a potential eruption. Located in the western region of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Ceboruco Volcano, whose last eruptive period was 1870–1875, is considered to be one of the most hazardous volcanoes in Mexico. We have conducted a detailed study of the seismicity in the surroundings of Ceboruco's volcanic edifice to assess the current state of this volcano. A dense temporary seismic network with 25 seismic stations in an area of 16 km × 16 km was deployed between November 2016 and July 2017, as part of the P-24 project of the CeMIEGeo consortium; this effort has allowed the detection of 81 earthquakes concentrated beneath the crater with depths between 4 and 8 km. In this study, we observe that the recorded seismicity occurs in swarms, and we specifically identify four sequences that we characterize in detail via the first focal mechanisms available for this volcano. Our results suggest a change in the local seismicity distribution compared to earlier observations, which reported seismic activity near the volcano edifice associated with fluid migration along zones of weakness related to the extensional stresses of the Tepic-Zacoalco rift. The changes in seismic patterns and obtained focal mechanisms are consistent with observed fluid effects at many geothermal sites worldwide, but also could suggest resumption of activity at this currently dormant volcano.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

GRAIL Refinements to Lunar Seismic Structure

The present ]day internal structure of the Moon provides insight not only into its own formation and evolution, but also that of all rocky planetary bodies. The most direct way to probe a planet fs interior structure is through seismology. As part of the Apollo lunar missions, four seismometers were deployed on the nearside surface of the Moon between the years 1969 and 1972. These instruments operated continuously until 1977, forming the only substantial extraterrestrial seismic data set in existence. These data have been used to constrain various aspects of the seismic velocity and density structure of the Moon. Typical 1-D models recognize a 30-60 km thick crust overlying a nearly constant ]velocity mantle, and extend to a depth of approximately 1000 km, below which the lack of penetrating moonquake ray ]paths precludes the seismic determination of deeper structure. Previously, the lack of observed moonquakes from the far side of the Moon has been used to infer the presence of a highly attenuating (possibly molten) core. Indirect geophysical measurements such as moment of inertia, magnetic induction, lunar laser ranging, and elemental abundances of mare basalts also place varying constraints on core size and state. In combination with seismic studies, these indirect measurements have been used to arrive at a commonly accepted model of the Moon's deepest interior that includes a solid inner and fluid outer core, overlain by a partial melt boundary layer. We recently applied modern array seismology techniques to the Apollo data and revealed detailed core structure, including the first direct confirmation of the presence of a solid inner core. Our study focused on the identification of core ]reflected phases in deep moonquake seismograms. The resulting model of the Moon fs innermost structure was found to be consistent with the commonly accepted model. However, the modeled layer radii may vary by tens of kilometers, as is expected when accounting for uncertainties such as moonquake location, timing errors, and potential seismic heterogeneities. In addition, the modeled velocities may vary with a 1-to-1 trade ]off with the modeled reflector depth. The GRAIL (Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory) mission, launched in Sept. 2011, placed two nearly identical spacecraft in lunar orbit. The two satellites make extremely high-resolution measurements of the lunar gravity field, which can be used to constrain the interior structure of the Moon using a "crust to core" approach. GRAIL fs constraints on crustal thickness, mantle structure, core radius and stratification, and core state (solid vs. molten) will complement seismic investigations in several ways. Here we present a progress report on our efforts to advance our knowledge of the Moon fs internal structure using joint gravity and seismic analyses. We will focus on methodology, including 1) refinements to the seismic core constraint accomplished through array processing of Apollo seismic data, made by applying a set of travel time corrections based on GRAIL structure estimates local to each Apollo seismic station; 2) modeling deep lunar structure through synthetic seismograms, to test whether the seismic core model can reproduce the core reflections observed in the Apollo seismograms; and 3) a joint seismic and gravity inversion in which we attempt to fit a family of seismic structure models with the gravity constraints from GRAIL, resulting in maps of seismic velocities and densities that vary from a nominal model both laterally and with depth.

Weber, Renee↗

Distinct meteoroid families identified on the lunar seismograms

The meteoroid impact-seismic activity data recorded by the Apollo lunar seismic network is examined. The study investigates the difference in temporal distribution between large and small impacts, clustering of impacts in a two-dimensional space of the time of the year and the time of the month, and the relationship of these observations with terrestrial observations. Several distinct families of meteoroids impacting the moon are identified. Most meteoroids producing small impact-seismic events, including ones associated with cometary showers, appear to approach from retrograde heliocentric orbits. In contrast, most meteoroids associated with large impact-seismic events appear to approach from prograde orbits; the observation is consistent with a hypothesis that many of them represent stony asteroidal material. It is suggested that the previously reported discrepancy between lunar and terrestrial meteoroid-flux estimates may be due to the differences in lunar and terrestrial detection efficiency among various families of meteoroids.

Oberst, Jurgen↗

Wastewater Disposal Has Not Significantly Altered the Regional Stress State in Southern Kansas

Wastewater disposal is primarily responsible for the increased seismicity rate since ~2013 in southern Kansas. Previous work that used shear-wave splitting (SWS) in southern Kansas interpreted an ~90° temporal rotation in the fast polarization direction and attributed it to increased pore pressures resulting from fluid injection. However, this interpreted rotation coincided with a change in the stations used to make the SWS measurements. We investigate the temporal variability of fast azimuths in southern Kansas by making SWS measurements on earthquake families with similar source–receiver paths recorded on a stable local seismic network. We select high-quality SWS measurements by investigating the stability of results across 65 different frequency bands between 0.5 and 15 Hz. We find that the fast polarization direction in southern Kansas is relatively constant with an average east-northeast (~N79°E) orientation between 2014 and 2017. Our fast polarization measurements are primarily a reflection of the maximum principal horizontal stress direction (SHmax). We observe a slight spatial change in SHmax to the northeast (~N55°E) near the Nemaha ridge in Oklahoma. However, we do not observe any significant temporal rotation of SHmax or variation in delay time (i.e., crack density) in southern Kansas, contrary to the earlier study. The previously interpreted ~90° rotation may either be a reflection of a very local stress change or a misinterpretation of SWS results potentially due to the use of inconsistent source–receiver paths. Our SWS measurements cover the period of peak wastewater disposal and seismicity rates and suggest an absence of significant temporal rotations in the local anisotropy and stress orientations associated with wastewater disposal.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Cardinal: Seismic and Geoacoustic Array Processing

Data collected via seismic and infrasound array deployments are leveraged in the geosciences to detect and characterize a myriad of natural and anthropogenic sources. These deployments consist of numerous sensors placed in a predetermined configuration to amplify signal strength and improve the efficacy of array processing techniques used to measure signal directionality and waveform coherence. High‐fidelity feature extraction is often predicated on interstation distance as well as the frequency content and wavelength of an incident signal. Numerous array processing softwares analyze data in sequential frequency bands to obtain a more detailed characterization of a signal. However, current algorithms are limited in their ability to determine optimal array configuration for each band. We introduce an open‐source Python code, called Cardinal, to process seismic and infrasound array data in discretized time–frequency space with the option of applying an adaptive array design to determine optimal subarray configuration for each frequency band. To reduce computational time, the array processing step can be run in parallel using multithreading. Furthermore, the software has the capability to aggregate array processing results from different time–frequency pixels to produce separate sets of detections, or families, with added utility via the application of an adaptive semblance threshold, which aids in isolating signals‐of‐interest from coherent background noise. Upon appropriate configuration, Cardinal exhibits the potential to combine distinct seismic and infrasound phases into separate families.

Adaptive Array↗

Geodetic Measurements of Slow-Slip Events Southeast of Parkfield, CA

Tremor and low-frequency earthquakes are presumed to be indicative of surrounding slow, aseismic slip that is often below geodetic detection thresholds. This study uses data from borehole seismometers and long-baseline laser strainmeters to observe both the seismic and geodetic signatures of episodic tremor and slip on the Parkfield region of the San Andreas Fault near Cholame, CA. We note the observed occurrence rates of both the tremors and co-located families of low-frequency earthquakes are not steady but instead exhibit quasiperiodic bursts of increased activity.We show that these periods of elevated seismic activity correlate with statistically significant stacked strain signals consisting of 44 slow-slip events. Modeled individual slow-slip events and their total summed moment, which are constrained by seismic signals and stacked strain, respectively, indicate that the individual moment magnitudes of these events range from $M_w$ 4.6–5.2.We find that the measured geodetic signal likely precedes the seismic signal by several hours, consistent with the aseismic slip preceding and driving the observed seismic tremor activity.We confirm that strike-slip faults, in addition to subduction zones, are capable of producing episodic tremor and slip.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Chrono-Validation of Near-Real-Time Landslide Susceptibility Models via Plugin Statistical Simulations

The idea behind any validation scheme in landslide susceptibility studies is to test whether a model calibrated on a certain data can predict an unknown dataset of the same nature (landslide presences/absences and covariates). Almost the entirety of landslide susceptibility studies are validated by subsetting a single dataset into a training and test sets. This dataset usually corresponds either to event-specific or to historical inventories. Very rarely, a multi-temporal inventory is available and, in the few cases where this condition is met, the validation practices involve training a model on a specific landslide inventory, deriving a single predictive equation and validating it on a subsequent landslide inventory. This commonly leads landslide predictive studies, even those with a strong statistical rigor, to neglect the uncertainty estimation in their modeling scheme. In statistics, validation can also be performed via statistical simulations. This means that after fitting a given model, one can generate any number of predictive functions and test their predictive skills on any type and number of unknown datasets. In this work, we take a similar direction and we apply it to model and validate three separate co-seismic inventories, including an uncertainty estimation phase. We mapped these inventories within the same area in Indonesia, for three earthquakes occurred in 2012, 2017 and 2018. Specifically, we build three event-specific Bayesian Generalize Additive Models of the binomial family. From each model we then simulate 1000 predictive realizations over the remaining two inventories, by using a plug-in scheme where all the morphometric covariates are kept fixed and only the ground motion is replaced according to the prediction target. By doing so, we introduce a new analytical tool for near-real-time landslide predictive purposes, which is able to produce a probabilistic model which stands in between the definitions of susceptibility and hazard. In fact, our model is able to accurately estimate “where” and “when” - although not “how frequently” - landslide have occurred by featuring the multitemporal information of the trigger. In our findings, the simulations are quite similar to the fitted models; and the nine combinations we analyse produce excellent performance. This result confirms the assumption that “the past is the key to the future”, as we show that the relative contribution of each variable and their interactions in each probabilistic model remains practically the same across temporal replicates. This information is not trivial because it supports the routines implemented in global near-real-time applications.

Temporal validation↗

Geological activity shapes the microbiome in deep-subsurface aquifers by advection

Subsurface environments host diverse microorganisms in fluid-filled fractures; however, little is known about how geological and hydrological processes shape the subterranean biosphere. Here, we sampled three flowing boreholes weekly for 10 mo in a 1478-m-deep fractured rock aquifer to study the role of fracture activity (defined as seismically or aseismically induced fracture aperture change) and advection on fluid-associated microbial community composition. We found that despite a largely stable deep-subsurface fluid microbiome, drastic community-level shifts occurred after events signifying physical changes in the permeable fracture network. The community-level shifts include the emergence of microbial families from undetected to over 50% relative abundance, as well as the replacement of the community in one borehole by the earlier community from a different borehole. Null-model analysis indicates that the observed spatial and temporal community turnover was primarily driven by stochastic processes (as opposed to deterministic processes). We, therefore, conclude that the observed community-level shifts resulted from the physical transport of distinct microbial communities from other fracture(s) that outpaced environmental selection. Given that geological activity is a major cause of fracture activity and that geological activity is ubiquitous across space and time on Earth, our findings suggest that advection induced by geological activity is a general mechanism shaping the microbial biogeography and diversity in deep-subsurface habitats across the globe.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Transient polar motions and the nature of the asthenosphere for short time scales

A uniformly valid mathematical formalism is developed to study the secular motions of the rotational axis of a layered viscoelastic earth due to seismic excitation. The changes required for implementing the formulation within the framework of the faulting problem. The rationale of adopting the chosen nrheological model, which contains a low-viscosity zone beneath the lithosphere and is based on linear Maxell constitutive relationship, is discussed. The impact of this low-viscosity channel on thhe two families of relaxation time, governing both isostatic readjustment and rotational processes, is considered. It is found that the polar motions depend sensitively on the viscosity structure of the asthenosphere and not at all on the underlying mantle. A gloal low-velocity zone with short-term asthenospheric viscosities less than about 5 x 10 to the 18th Pa-s and widths greater than 50 km is ruled out.

Boschi, E.↗

Seismic analysis of the solar interior. I - Can opacity changes improve the theoretical frequencies?

The paper describes the application of seismic inverse theory to the deduction of properties of the solar interior using presently available measured frequencies of the solar oscillations. Only the solar opacity is included in this application. This study has used the spectral expansion method of Lanczos and Jackson to derive changes to the opacity which improve agreement between the theoretical and observed frequencies of oscillation. It is found that a family of opacity changes exists which yields models that improve the frequency agreement by amounts that are indistinguishable among the family members.

Korzennik, Sylvain G.↗