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At least 19 records

A synthetic seismicity model for the Middle America Trench

A novel iterative technique, based on the concept of fault segmentation and computed using 2D static dislocation theory, for building models of seismicity and fault interaction which are physically acceptable and geometrically and kinematically correct, is presented. The technique is applied in two steps to seismicity observed at the Middle America Trench. The first constructs generic models which randomly draw segment strengths and lengths from a 2D probability distribution. The second constructs predictive models in which segment lengths and strengths are adjusted to mimic the actual geography and timing of large historical earthquakes. Both types of models reproduce the statistics of seismicity over five units of magnitude and duplicate other aspects including foreshock and aftershock sequences, migration of foci, and the capacity to produce both characteristic and noncharacteristic earthquakes. Over a period of about 150 yr the complex interaction of fault segments and the nonlinear failure conditions conspire to transform an apparently deterministic model into a chaotic one.

Ward, Steven N.↗

The Stop-and-Go Mechanism: Towards an Integrated Approach to Model Seismicity, Outgassing, Deformation, and Thermal Unrest at Active Volcanoes

Connecting the geophysical and geochemical signals recorded at and above the surface of volcanoes with source mechanisms is fundamental to understand transitions from quiescence to eruption, and to integrate the behavior of volcanoes with their regional seismotectonic and hydrological context. Some of these signals include shallow volcanic tremor, a long-lasting (minutes-to-years) ground vibration detected in volcanic areas during unrest; volcanic outgassing, which shows intriguing periodicities over multiple scales, as revealed by space-borne instruments and by ground-based, high-frequency (~1 Hz), sampling methods; inflation and deflation of volcanic edifices, commonly associated with subsurface volume changes; and large-scale (from a few to tens of km2), low-temperature, thermal anomalies, a newly-discovered signal that has been observed to emerge on volcanic flanks from months-to-years prior to gas- and magma-driven eruptions. Traditionally, these geophysical and geochemical signals have been modelled independently, which limits our interpretation of subsurface processes and thus our assessment of unrest. In this work, we show through lumped-parameter models, numerical simulations, and preliminary laboratory experiments that many of the signals recorded around volcanoes can be integrated into a common “stop-and-go” mechanism. In particular, we found that they can arise spontaneously when taking into account the feedbacks between the temporary accumulation of gas and/or magma in the crust (“stop”), and the diffusive transfer of gas and heat towards the surface (“go”). For example, we find that the “stop-and-go” mechanism can explain: (i) the emergence of monochromatic, broadband, and harmonic tremor; (ii) the periodic components commonly observed in volcanic outgassing time series; (iii) the link between large-scale thermal anomalies and shallow hydrothermal systems; (iv) the reported time lags between large-scale thermal anomalies and deformation; and (v) the breathing of potentially destructive volcanic calderas. The “stop-and-go” mechanism provides a consistent and realistic framework to link multiple geophysical and geochemical signals with the processes leading to volcanic unrest and eruption.

volcanoes↗

The viscoelastic stiffness model of seismicity

A viscoelastic stiffness model of seismicity is developed by introducing a viscoelastic element into the stiffness model for fault dynamics. The introduction of this element permits modeling of transient anelastic deformations in response to stress loading and relaxation and provides a mechanism for partial stress recovery following an earthquake. As a consequence, several phenomena not present in elastic stiffness theory emerge. These include postseismic creep, foreshocks, and aftershocks. Numerical simulations of fault motion also reveal episodes of stable sliding, tertiary creep preceeding earthquakes, and long-term aseismic creep.

Cohen, S. C.↗

Dynamical influences on the moment of inertia tensor from lateral viscosity variations inferred from seismic tomographic models

We have investigated the influences of lateral variations of viscosity on the moment of inertia tensor from viscous flows due to the density anomalies in the mantle inferred from seismic tomographic models. The scaling relations between the density and the seismic anomalies is taken as either a constant or a function increasing with depth in accord with the recent high-pressure experimental studies. The viscosity is taken as an exponential function of the 3D density anomaly. In models with an isoviscous background, the effects on the perturbed moment of inertia tensor from the lateral viscosity variations are smaller than those due to variations in the radial viscosity profiles. In mantle models with a background viscosity increasing with depth, the influences of the lateral viscosity variations are significant. The most striking feature in the latter case is that the two off-diagonal elements delta I(sub xz) and delta I(sub yz) in the inertia tensor exhibit greatest sensitivity to lateral variations of the viscosity. While the other elements of the inertia change by only about a few tens of percent in the range of lateral viscosity contrast considered (less than 300), delta I(sub xz) and delta I(sub yz) can vary up to 40 times even with a change in sign, depending on the radial viscosity stratification and the location of the strongest lateral variations. The increase in the velocity-density scaling relation with depth can reduce the influences of the lateral viscosity variations, but it does not change the overall sensitive nature of delta I(sub xz) and delta I(sub yz). This study demonstrates clearly that the lateral viscosity variations, especially in the upper mantle, must be considered in the determination of long-term polar wander, since the variations in the delta I(sub xz) and delta I(sub yz) terms are directly responsible for exciting rotational movements.

Zhang, Shuxia↗

Lunar composition - A geophysical and petrological synthesis

Lunar compositional constraints are derived on the basis of geophysical data (in particular, the lunar seismic model as revised by Nakamura) and petrological arguments. Only in the case of extreme assumptions can critical aspects of bulk lunar composition be demonstrated to be equivalent to the present-day terrestrial mantle; specifically, the moon has an Mg number that is too low and an alumina abundance that is too high. Over a broad range of crustal densities the presence of a metallic core at least 150 km in radius is necessary to reconcile the upper mantle lunar seismic model with mass and moment of inertia constraints. A significant seismic discontinuity at 500 km depth may mark the lowest extent of early lunar differentiation, possibly representing a transition between highly fractionated upper mantle and less fractionated, perhaps even primordial, middle/lower mantle.

Mueller, Steve↗

Seismic structure of the moon - A summary of current status

A seismic model of the moon, refined from previous models with the aid of new data and analyses for seismic events recorded by four Apollo lunar seismic stations and a gravimeter, is outlined. The current model has five zones. The crust is 55-60 km thick. The surface is covered by regolith of varying thicknesses and low seismic velocity. The seismic Q's are extremely high. The upper mantle, 250 km thick, is characterized by seismic velocities close to those of the earth's upper mantle, and shear wave Q of about 4000. Tidally controlled deep moonquakes are concentrated near the boundary of the middle mantle, 600-700 km thick. A lower mantle extending to an undetermined depth is characterized by high attenuation of shear waves. The existence of a low-velocity core is only tentatively proposed.

Nakamura, Y.↗

Estimation of the Seismic Moment Release Rate of Mars from InSight Seismic Data

Seismicity models for Mars usually estimate the long-term average annual seismic moment rate, and also the average annual event rate. This holds for estimations based on geological evidence (Golombek et al., 1992, Golombek, 2002, Taylor et al., 2013) as well as for models based on thermal evolution and cooling of the Martian interior (Phillips, 1991, Knapmeyer et al., 2006, Plesa et al., 2018). All studies are compatible with the conclusion based on the non-observation of any unambiguous event by Viking (Anderson et al., 1977, Goins & Lazarewicz, 1979) that Martian seismicity lies somewhere between that of the Moon and that of the Earth. We developed tools to derive reasonable estimations of the annual seismic moment rate from a number of events as small as one, provided that the observed events are beyond the global completeness threshold for observable events. Numerical tests as well as evaluation of terrestrial data shows the feasibility of the approach.

Knapmeyer, Martin↗

Q and structure.

Different values of seismic Q may be obtained from measurements of different portions of a seismic record, indicating a separation of the effects on energy propagation of scattering and real loss parameters. In cases in which these parameters can be separated, they can then be used in seismic modeling. As an example, a model is presented in which scattering occurs to a depth of about 10 km below the volcanic ridge in the Tonga-Fiji region. The case of the lunar maria is discussed in terms of the relation of measured seismic Q, scattering parameters, and direct ray propagation parameters. The results indicate that a fairly simple jointed bedrock model is compatible with observed lunar seismic data.

Warren, N.↗

Further Constraints and Uncertainties on the Deep Seismic Structure of the Moon

The Apollo Passive Seismic Experiment (APSE) consisted of four 3-component seismometers deployed between 1969 and 1972, that continuously recorded lunar ground motion until late 1977. The APSE data provide a unique opportunity for investigating the interior of a planet other than Earth, generating the most direct constraints on the elastic structure, and hence the thermal and compositional evolution of the Moon. Owing to the lack of far side moonquakes, past seismic models of the lunar interior were unable to constrain the lowermost 500 km of the interior. Recently, array methodologies aimed at detecting deep lunar seismic reflections found evidence for a lunar core, providing an elastic model of the deepest lunar interior consistent with geodetic parameters. Here we study the uncertainties in these models associated with the double array stacking of deep moonquakes for imaging deep reflectors in the Moon. We investigate the dependency of the array stacking results on a suite of parameters, including amplitude normalization assumptions, polarization filters, assumed velocity structure, and seismic phases that interfere with our desired target phases. These efforts are facilitated by the generation of synthetic seismograms at high frequencies (approx. 1Hz), allowing us to directly study the trade-offs between different parameters. We also investigate expected amplitudes of deep reflections relative to direct P and S arrivals, including predictions from arbitrarily oriented focal mechanisms in our synthetics. Results from separate versus combined station stacking help to establish the robustness of stacks. Synthetics for every path geometry of data were processed identically to that done with data. Different experiments were aimed at examining various processing assumptions, such as adding random noise to synthetics and mixing 3 components to some degree. The principal stacked energy peaks put forth in recent work persist, but their amplitude (which maps into reflector impedance contrast) and timing (which maps into reflector depth) depend on factors that are not well constrained -- most notably, the velocity structure of the overlying lunar interior. Thus, while evidence for the lunar core remains strong, the depths of imaged reflectors have associated uncertainties that will require new seismic data and observations to constrain. These results strongly advocate further investigations on the Moon to better resolve the interior (e.g., Selene missions), for the Moon apparently has a rich history of construction and evolution that is inextricably tied to that of Earth.

Lin, Pei-Ying Patty↗

A scale-invariant cellular-automata model for distributed seismicity

In the standard cellular-automata model for a fault an element of stress is randomly added to a grid of boxes until a box has four elements, these are then redistributed to the adjacent boxes on the grid. The redistribution can result in one or more of these boxes having four or more elements in which case further redistributions are required. On the average added elements are lost from the edges of the grid. The model is modified so that the boxes have a scale-invariant distribution of sizes. The objective is to model a scale-invariant distribution of fault sizes. When a redistribution from a box occurs it is equivalent to a characteristic earthquake on the fault. A redistribution from a small box (a foreshock) can trigger an instability in a large box (the main shock). A redistribution from a large box always triggers many instabilities in the smaller boxes (aftershocks). The frequency-size statistics for both main shocks and aftershocks satisfy the Gutenberg-Richter relation with b = 0.835 for main shocks and b = 0.635 for aftershocks. Model foreshocks occur 28 percent of the time.

Barriere, Benoit↗

Large Torque Variations in Two Soft Gamma Repeaters

We have monitored the pulse frequencies of the two soft gamma repeaters SGR 1806-20 and SGR 1900+14 through the beginning of year 2001 using primarily Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer Proportional Counter Array observations. In both sources, we observe large changes in the spin-down torque up to a factor of approximately 4, which persist for several months. Using long baseline phase-connected timing solutions as well as the overall frequency histories, we construct torque noise power spectra for each SGR. The power spectrum of each source is very red (power-law slope approximately -3.5). These power spectra are consistent in normalization with some accreting systems, yet much steeper in slope than any known accreting source. To the best of our knowledge, torque noise power spectra with a comparably steep frequency dependence have only been seen in young, glitching radio pulsars (e.g. Vela). The observed changes in spin-down rate do not correlate with burst activity, therefore, the physical mechanisms behind each phenomenon are also likely unrelated. Within the context of the magnetar model, seismic activity cannot account for both the bursts and the long-term torque changes unless the seismically active regions are decoupled from one another.

Woods, Peter M.↗

Large Torque Variations in Two Soft Gamma Repeaters

We have monitored the pulse frequencies of the two soft gamma repeaters SGR 1806-20 and SGR 1900+14 through the beginning of year 2001 using primarily Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer Proportional Counter Array observations. In both sources, we observe large changes in the spin-down torque up to a factor of approximately 4, which persist for several months. Using long-baseline phase-connected timing solutions as well as the overall frequency histories, we construct torque noise power spectra for each SGR (Soft Gamma Repeater). The power spectrum of each source is very red (power-law slope is approximately -3.5). The torque noise power levels are consistent with some accreting systems on timescales of approximately 1 yr, yet the full power spectrum is much steeper in frequency than any known accreting source. To the best of our knowledge, torque noise power spectra with a comparably steep frequency dependence have been seen only in young, glitching radio pulsars (e.g., Vela). The observed changes in spin-down rate do not correlate with burst activity; therefore, the physical mechanisms behind each phenomenon are also likely unrelated. Within the context of the magnetar model, seismic activity can not account for both the bursts and the long-term torque changes unless the seismically active regions are decoupled from one another.

Woods, Peter M.↗

Deep Learning Models for Planetary Seismicity Detection

Research in planetary seismology is fundamentally constrained by a lack of data. Seismo-logical science products of future missions can typically only be informed by theoretical signal/noise characteristics of the environment or likely Earth-analogues. Although objectives can be re-assessed after some initial data-collection upon lander arrival, transfer of high-resolution data back to Earth is costly on lander power usage. Over the last several years, development of GPU computing techniques and open-source high-level APIs have led to rapid advances in deep learning within the fields of computer vision, natural language processing, and collaborative filtering. These techniques are actively being adapted in seismology for a variety of tasks, including: earthquake detection, seismic phase discrimination, and ground-motion prediction. Until the recent detection of mars quakes during the Mars InSight mission, the only other measurements of seismicity recorded outside of Earth was on the Moon during the Apollo missions between 1969 to 1977. These unique data sets have been periodically revisited using new seismological methods, including ambient noise interferometry and Hidden Markov Models. Our objective is to develop a deep learning seismic detector and use it to catalog moonquakes from the Apollo 17 Lunar Seismic Profiling Experiment (LSPE) and compare the results with those obtained by other methods. Additionally, we will assess the accuracy tradeoff between using a training set of lunar data and one composed of Earth seismicity. In this document, we present preliminary results using a prototype classifier trained on a small set of earthquakes that was able to obtain detections for LSPE moonquakes with a greater accuracy than a recent study using Hidden Markov Models.

Civilini, F.↗