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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting seismic amplitudes with machine learning

The accurate estimation of seismic wave amplitude is vital to precisely determine the yield, magnitude, and event discrimination possible for a given network – a critical element in nuclear explosion monitoring. This task is complicated by several factors, including but not limited to radiation pattern, scattering effects, and crustal variations, which can lead to the attenuation or amplification of amplitude along a given raypath. In this report, we explore the novel application of machine learning to the task of seismic amplitude estimation by training a simple Artificial Neural Network (ANN) on an S-wave amplitude dataset from Lai et al. (2019). Attributes from this dataset used as input to the ANN included event-station distances, station locations (latitude, longitude), event locations (latitude, longitude), event depths, event magnitudes, radiation patterns, signal-to noise ratio (SNR) measurements (average-amplitude, peak-to-trough, maximum peak), and signal periods. We find that the trained ANN predicts S-wave amplitudes with a modest tendency toward underestimating the actual values, as indicated by a linear regression between predicted and actual data (slope: 0.892, intercept: -0.651). These results suggest that an ANN can perform this task, with potential for significant improvements through improved datasets, architectures, and parameter tuning.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting Seafloor Seismic Noise from Sea Surface Wave Heights and Vice Versa

Seismic hazard monitoring and global seismic tomography efforts are improved by recording seismic signals close to sources and at a variety of azimuths surrounding the source. While seismic networks have been deployed at many locations on land, seafloor stations are still sparse. Inclusion of ocean-based data would greatly improve the global coverage of seismic networks. However, the use of seafloor seismic data to complement land-based detection and characterization of events is complicated by the fact that ambient noise on the seafloor is in general much higher than noise levels on land. This noise is driven primarily by sea surface waves and tides. In this project, I define an empirical relationship between wave height and seafloor seismic displacement, and tie this relationship to the microseism noise theory of Longuet-Higgins and Ursell (1948). I find that while there appears to be a linear relationship between wave height and seismic displacement, wave height values can only be used with low confidence to predict seismic displacement and vice versa, and furthermore, factors other than wave height are significant in determining the level of seismic noise at a particular site.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning Approaches to Predicting Induced Seismicity and Imaging Geothermal Reservoir Properties

This project developed machine learning (ML) methods, lab data sets, and field data to advance geothermal exploration and geothermal energy production. The work had three focus areas. One involved the development of ML methods to use microearthquakes (MEQs) for imaging geothermal reservoir properties and improving subsurface characterization – most importantly the evolution of permeability within the evolving reservoir. This part of the work included development of ML approaches for automated MEQ location, focal mechanism determination and identification of earthquake precursors. The second area focused on using MEQ signals generated by geothermal exploration and production to predict the relationship between fluid injection and seismicity. Here, we extended to reservoir scale our success in using ML to predict laboratory earthquakes and fault zone stress state. The third focus area was on lab experiments. Here, we developed new ML models for lab earthquake prediction and identification of precursors to failure to improve earthquake forecasting and early warning in geothermal settings. Major outcomes of our work include ML models that learn from MEQ signals during geothermal exploration and production to predict induced seismicity. MEQs occur naturally in connection with drilling and energy production. We developed ML methods to use the seismic waves from these events to characterize the elastic, hydraulic and poromechanical properties of reservoirs. Our work illuminated fracture geometry and the evolution of fracture permeability by incorporating seismic coda wave analysis and ML methods to relate fluid injection and seismicity. We significantly expanded laboratory earthquake prediction to include methods that use both passive measurements of microearthquakes within the lab fault zones and also active source acoustic measurements of fault zone elastic properties. These methods can now predict fault zone stress state, time to failure and the magnitude of lab earthquakes. Our work showed that repetitive stick- slip failure events during frictional sliding (the lab equivalent of earthquakes) are preceded by a cascade of micro-failure events that radiate energy in a manner that foretells unstable failure – manifest as laboratory MEQs. We documented a mapping between fracture properties and statistical attributes of elastic radiation. We extended existing works to geothermal reservoir scale and developed ML methods to determine reservoir permeability, fracture properties, and their evolution during geothermal energy production. An attractive feature of ML algorithms is their ability to handle big datasets and reveal patterns and correlations that may remain invisible to conventional analyses. Our work connected data from field, laboratory and intermediate scales to study permeability, stress, strength, fracture stiffness and geometry. At the field scale we used data from the Newberry Volcano field site, UtahFORGE, EGS Collab, and also the Bedretto underground research lab in Switzerland. These data sets are bridging the gap between the lab scale, theory, and reservoir scale. Our work produced plain language summaries to improve public understanding of DOE research. We also developed openly distributed ML and seismicity datasets for use by all researchers and we published connections between induced seismicity in geothermal areas and reservoir properties including permeability, fracture properties, and stress state. Our models are designed for the large data sets of induced seismicity typically associated with geothermal sites. We produced labeled event catalogs and used them on geothermal data to assess how ML can facilitate geothermal production and exploration. All datasets are available on the GDR Productivity: The project produced 32 publications in peer reviewed journals (two are in review). It supported the work of 6 PhD students, 40 conference presentations, 6 keynote talks at national meetings, and mentoring and professional development for 4 postdoctoral fellows.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seismic Features Predict Ground Motions During Repeating Caldera Collapse Sequence

Abstract Applying machine learning to continuous acoustic emissions, signals previously deemed noise, from laboratory faults and slowly slipping subduction‐zone faults, demonstrates hidden signatures are emitted that describe physical details, including fault displacement and friction. However, no evidence currently exists to demonstrate that similar hidden signals occur during seismogenic stick‐slip on earthquake faults—the damaging earthquakes of most societal interest. We show that continuous seismic emissions emitted during the 2018 multi‐month caldera collapse sequence at the Kı̄lauea volcano in Hawai'i contain hidden signatures characterizing the earthquake cycle. Multi‐spectral data features extracted from 30 s intervals of the continuous seismic emission are used to train a gradient boosted tree regression model to predict the GNSS‐derived contemporaneous surface displacement and time‐to‐failure of the upcoming collapse event. This striking result suggests that at least some faults emit such signals and provide a potential path to characterizing the instantaneous and future behavior of earthquake faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Projected Seismic Activity at the Tiger Stripe Fractures on Enceladus, Saturn, From an Analog Study of Tidally Modulated Icequakes Within the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica

Abstract Dissipation of tidal energy is expected to generate seismicity on icy‐ocean worlds; however, the distribution and timing of this seismic activity throughout an orbital cycle is not known. We used new observations from an icy‐ocean‐world analog environment on Earth to examine the relationship between tidally driven tensile stress and seismic activity within an ice shell. We investigated a pair of rifts within Antarctica's Ross Ice Shelf which are tidally stressed in a manner analogous to the orbital cycle of tidal stress experienced by Enceladus' Tiger Stripe Fractures. We found that seismic activity at the Antarctic rifts is sensitive to both the amplitude and the rate of tensile stress across the rifts. We combined these findings with calculated stress values along Enceladus' Tiger Stripe Fractures to predict seismic‐activity levels expected along the ice‐shell fractures. We predict a peak in seismicity along the four Tiger Stripe Fractures when Enceladus is 90°–120° past pericenter in its orbit around Saturn, at which point tensile stresses would reach ∼2/3 of their maximum value. We also used the magnitude distribution of icequakes along Antarctic rifts to investigate implications for the likely size of stick‐slip rupture patches along icy faults on Enceladus. Our findings predict that the Tiger Stripe Fractures should produce sustained, low‐magnitude seismic events that involve rupture along discrete portions of each fracture's total length. We predict that seismicity would fall to 50% of peak levels when stresses across the Tiger Stripe Fractures are dominantly compressional.

Olsen, Kira G.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Updates to the Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) Model: 1. Tomography

Abstract A function of global monitoring of nuclear explosions is the development of Earth models for predicting seismic travel times for more accurate calculation of event locations. Most monitoring agencies rely on fast, distance-dependent one-dimensional (1D) Earth models to calculate seismic event locations quickly and in near real-time. RSTT (Regional Seismic Travel Time) is a seismic velocity model and computer software package that captures the major effects of three-dimensional crust and upper mantle structure on regional seismic travel times, while still allowing for fast prediction speed (milliseconds). We describe updates to the RSTT model using a refined data set of regional phases (i.e., Pn, Pg, Sn, Lg) using the Bayesloc relative relocation algorithm. The tomographic inversion shown here acts to refine the previous RSTT public model ( rstt201404um ) and displays significant features related to areas of global tectonic complexity as well as further reduction in arrival residual values. Validation of the updated RSTT model demonstrates significant reduction in median epicenter mislocation (15.3 km) using all regional phases compared to the iasp91 1D model (22.1 km) as well as to the current station correction approach used at the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization International Data Centre (18.9 km).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of the PhaseNet Model Applied to the IMS Seismic Network

Producing a complete and accurate set of signal detections is essential for automatically building and characterizing seismic events of interest for nuclear explosion monitoring. Signal detection algorithms have been an area of research for decades, but still produce large quantities of false detections and misidentify real signals that must be detected to produce a complete global catalog of events of interest. Deep learning methods have shown promising capabilities in effectively characterizing seismic signals for complex tasks such as identifying phase arrival times. We use the PhaseNet model, a UNet-based Neural Network, trained on local distance data from northern California to predict seismic arrivals on data from the International Monitoring System (IMS) global network. We use an analyst-curated bulletin generated from this data set to compare the performance of PhaseNet to that of the Short-Term Average/Long-Term Average (STA/LTA) algorithm. We find that PhaseNet has the potential of outperforming traditional processing methods and recommend the training of a new model with the IMS data to achieve optimal performance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating deep neural networks with full-waveform inversion: Reparameterization, regularization, and uncertainty quantification

Full-waveform inversion (FWI) is an accurate imaging approach for modeling the velocity structure by minimizing the misfit between recorded and predicted seismic waveforms. However, the strong nonlinearity of FWI resulting from fitting oscillatory waveforms can trap the optimization in local minima. We have adopted a neural-network-based full-waveform inversion (NNFWI) method that integrates deep neural networks with FWI by representing the velocity model with a generative neural network. Neural networks can naturally introduce spatial correlations as regularization to the generated velocity model, which suppresses noise in the gradients and mitigates local minima. Furthermore, the velocity model generated by neural networks is input to the same partial differential equation (PDE) solvers used in conventional FWI. The gradients of the neural networks and PDEs are calculated using automatic differentiation, which back propagates gradients through the acoustic PDEs and neural network layers to update the weights of the generative neural network. Experiments on 1D velocity models, the Marmousi model, and the 2004 BP model determine that NNFWI can mitigate local minima, especially for imaging high-contrast features such as salt bodies, and it significantly improves the inversion in the presence of noise. Adding dropout layers to the neural network model also allows analyzing the uncertainty of the inversion results through Monte Carlo dropout. NNFWI opens a new pathway to combine deep learning and FWI for exploiting the characteristics of deep neural networks and the high accuracy of PDE solvers. Because NNFWI does not require extra training data and optimization loops, it provides an attractive and straightforward alternative to conventional FWI.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Time domain probabilistic seismic risk analysis using ground motion prediction equations of Fourier amplitude spectra

Modeling of Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) of seismic motions has gained much attention in engineering seismology. In the past few years, several ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and inter-frequency correlation structure of FAS have been established. Due to many preferable characteristics of FAS, probabilistic seismic hazard/risk analysis is rapidly changing from ergodic, spectrum acceleration Sa(T 0 )-based approach to non-ergodic, site-specific, FAS-based approach. This paper presents time domain intrusive framework for probabilistic seismic risk analysis using GMPE of FAS. Herein, methodology for time domain stochastic ground motion modeling based on GMPEs of FAS is presented in some detail. The simulated uncertain motions are modeled as a random process and represented by polynomial chaos Karhunen-Loève expansion. The random process excitations are further propagated into the uncertain structural system using Galerkin stochastic finite element method (SFEM). Probabilistic evolution of structural response is solved, and such solution is used to develop seismic risk for any damage state. The presented framework is illustrated through seismic risk analysis of a four-story building subjected to possible earthquakes from two strike slip faults. The influences of the epistemic uncertainties in source stress drop Δσ and site attenuation κ0 on seismic risk are investigated. The need for non-ergodic seismic risk analysis with source-specific and site specific characterizations is emphasized.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-Resolution Near-Surface Imaging at the Basin Scale Using Dark Fiber and Distributed Acoustic Sensing: Toward Site Effect Estimation in Urban Environments

Near-surface seismic structure, particularly the shear wave velocity (V s ), can strongly affect local site response, and should be accurately estimated for ground motion prediction during seismic hazard assessment. The Imperial Valley (California), occupying the southern end of the Salton Trough, is a seismically active basin with thick surficial lacustrine sedimentary deposits. In this study, we utilize ambient noise records and local earthquake events for high-resolution near-surface characterization and site effect estimation with an unlit fiber-optic telecommunication infrastructure (dark fiber) in Imperial Valley by using the distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) technique. We apply ambient noise interferometry to retrieve coherent surface waves from DAS records, and evaluate performances of three different surface wave methods on DAS ambient noise dispersion imaging. We develop a quality control workflow to improve the dispersion measurement of noisy portions of the DAS data set by using a data selection strategy. Using the joint inversion of both the fundamental mode and higher overtones of Rayleigh waves, a high resolution two-dimensional (2D) V s structure down to 70 m depth is obtained. We successfully achieve an improved V s 30 (the time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m) model with higher spatial-resolution and reliability compared to the existing community model for the area. We also explore the potential for utilizing DAS earthquake events for site amplification estimation. The preliminary results reveal a clear anti-correlation between the approximated site response and the V s 30 profile. In conclusion, our results indicate the potential utility of DAS deployed on dark fiber for near-surface characterization in appropriate contexts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neural operators for stochastic modeling of nonlinear structural system response to natural hazards

Traditionally, neural networks have been employed to learn the mapping between finite-dimensional Euclidean spaces. However, recent research has opened up new horizons, focusing on the utilization of deep neural networks to learn operators capable of mapping infinite-dimensional function spaces. Here, in this work, we employ two state-of-the-art neural operators, the deep operator network (DeepONet) and the Fourier neural operator (FNO) for the prediction of the nonlinear time history response of structural systems exposed to natural hazards, such as earthquakes and windstorms. Specifically, we propose two architectures, a self-adaptive FNO and a fast Fourier transform-based DeepONet (DeepFNOnet), where we employ a FNO beyond the DeepONet to learn the discrepancy between the ground truth and the solution predicted by the DeepONet. To demonstrate the efficiency and applicability of the architectures, two problems are considered. In the first, we use the proposed model to predict the seismic nonlinear dynamic response of a six-story shear building subject to stochastic ground motions. In the second problem, we employ the operators to predict the wind-induced nonlinear dynamic response of a high-rise building while explicitly accounting for the stochastic nature of the wind excitation. In both cases, the trained metamodels achieve high accuracy while being orders of magnitude faster than their corresponding high-fidelity models.

DeepONet↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coordinate-Based Seismic Interpolation in Irregular Land Survey: A Deep Internal Learning Approach

Physical and budget constraints often result in irregular sampling, which complicates accurate subsurface imaging. Preprocessing approaches, such as missing trace or shot interpolation, are typically employed to enhance seismic data in such cases. Recently, deep learning has been used to address the trace interpolation problem at the expense of large amounts of training data to adequately represent typical seismic events. Nonetheless, most research in this area has focused on trace reconstruction, with little attention having been devoted to shot interpolation. Furthermore, existing methods assume regularly spaced receivers/sources failing in approximating seismic data from real (irregular) surveys. This work presents a novel shot gather interpolation approach which uses a continuous coordinate-based representation of the acquired seismic wavefield parameterized by a neural network. The proposed unsupervised approach, which we call coordinate-based seismic interpolation (CoBSI), enables the prediction of specific seismic characteristics in irregular land surveys without using external data during neural network training. Importantly, experimental results on real and synthetic 3-D data validate the ability of the proposed method to estimate continuous smooth seismic events in the time-space and frequency-wavenumber domains, improving sparsity or low-rank-based interpolation methods.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling-Based Assessment of Deep Seismic Potential Induced by Geologic Carbon Storage

Induced seismicity is an inherent risk associated with geologic carbon storage (GCS) in deep rock formations that could contain undetected faults prone to failure. Modeling-based risk assessment has been implemented to quantify the potential of injection-induced seismicity, but typically simplified multiscale geologic features or neglected multiphysics coupled mechanisms because of the uncertainty in field data and computational cost of field-scale simulations, which may limit the reliable prediction of seismic hazard caused by industrial-scale CO 2 storage. The degree of lateral continuity of the stratigraphic interbedding below the reservoir and depth-dependent fault permeability can enhance or inhibit pore-pressure diffusion and corresponding poroelastic stressing along a basement fault. In conclusion, this study presents a rigorous modeling scheme with optimal geological and operational parameters needed to be considered in seismic monitoring and mitigation strategies for safe GCS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗