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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Three-dimensional paganica fault morphology obtained from hypocenter clustering (L'Aquila 2009 seismic sequence, Central Italy)

In seismic modelling, fault planes are normally assumed to be flat due to the lack of data which can constrain fault morphology. However, incorporating 3D fault morphology is important for modelling several phenomena, for example calculating mainshock induced stress changes. Here we utilize a data-analytical method to unveil the 3D rupture morphology of faults using unsupervised clustering techniques applied to earthquake hypocenters in seismic sequences. We apply this method to the 2009 L'Aquila seismic sequence which involved a M W 6.1 mainshock on April 6th. We use a dataset of about 50,000 relocated events, mostly microearthquakes, reaching magnitude of completeness equal to 0.7. Clustering distinguishes the earthquakes as occurring in three main clusters along with other minor fault segments. We then represent the morphology of the main Paganica fault system (responsible for the largest mainshock) using splines. This method shows promise as a step toward robustly and quickly obtaining 3D rupture morphologies where earthquake sequences have been monitored. The 3D model is presented interactively online, and the processing is presented in an interactive Jupyter Notebook (https://bit.ly/2MnCFdj).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Toward Robust and Routine Determination of Mw for Small Earthquakes: Application to the 2020 Mw 5.7 Magna, Utah, Seismic Sequence

To better characterize seismic hazard, particularly, for induced seismicity, there is an increasing interest in methods to estimate moment magnitude (M w ) for small earthquakes. M w is generally preferred over other magnitude types, but, it is difficult to estimate M w for earthquakes with local magnitude (M L ) <3-3.5, using conventional moment tensor (MT) inversion. The 2020 M ww 5.7 Magna, Utah, seismic sequence provides an opportunity to illustrate and evaluate the value of spectral methods for this purpose. Starting with a high-quality seismic catalog of 2103 earthquakes (M L <5.6), we estimate M w using two independent spectral methods—one based on direct waves, yielding M w,direct , and the other based on coda waves, yielding M w,coda . For the direct-wave method, we present a non-parametric (NP) inversion scheme that solves for apparent geometrical spreading, G(R), and site effects (S), similar to other NP procedures that have been used to calibrate regional M L scales. The NP inversion is constrained using M ws derived from MTs for nine events in the Magna sequence. We recover statistically robust and physically reasonable G(R) and S and compute M w,direct for 635 Magna earthquakes down to M L 0.7. For the coda-wave method, we consider two separate calibration schemes involving previous MT solutions and compute M w,coda for 311 earthquakes down to M L 1.0. For 280 of the events that were processed with both methods—M w,direct and M w,coda —are strongly correlated (r = 0.98), with a mean difference of only 0.05. We compare M w,direct and M w,coda with M L and find reasonably good agreement for M L <3.6 with the theoretically predicted relationship of M w =(2/3)M L +C, in which C is a regional constant. Our results imply that seismic network operators can use spectral-based M w estimates to replace M L estimates for events with M L ≥1.0, and possibly smaller. The main requirement is the existence of a small number of MT solutions for calibration purposes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sequences of seismic and aseismic slip on bimaterial faults show dominant rupture asymmetry and potential for elevated seismic hazard

Here we perform numerical simulations of sequences of earthquake and aseismic slip on planar rate and state faults separating dissimilar material within the 2-D plane strain approximation. We resolve all stages of the earthquake cycle from aseismic slip to fast ruptures while incorporating full inertia effects during seismic event propagation. We show that bimaterial coupling results in favorable nucleation site and subsequent asymmetric rupture propagation. We demonstrate that increasing the material contrast enhances this asymmetry leading to higher slip rates and normal stress drops in the preferred rupture propagation direction. The normal stress drop, induced by the bimaterial effect, leads to strong dynamic weakening of the fault and may destabilize the creeping region on a heterogeneous rate and state fault, resulting in extended rupture propagation. Such rupture penetration into creeping patches may lead to more frequent opening of earthquake gates, causing increased seismic hazard. Furthermore, bimaterial coupling may lead to irregular seismicity pattern in terms of event length, peak slip rates, and hypocenter location, depending on the properties of the creeping patches bordering the seismogenically active part of the fault. Our results highlight robust characteristics of bimaterial interfaces that persist over long sequence of events and suggest the need for further exploration of the role of material contrast in earthquake physics and models of seismic hazard.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine-Learning-Based High-Resolution Earthquake Catalog Reveals How Complex Fault Structures Were Activated during the 2016–2017 Central Italy Sequence

The 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence occurred on an 80 km long normal-fault system. The sequence initiated with the Mw 6.0 Amatrice event on 24 August 2016, followed by the Mw 5.9 Visso event on 26 October and the Mw 6.5 Norcia event on 30 October. We analyze continuous data from a dense network of 139 seismic stations to build a high-precision catalog of ~900,000 earthquakes spanning a 1 yr period, based on arrival times derived using a deep-neural-network-based picker. Our catalog contains an order of magnitude more events than the catalog routinely produced by the local earthquake monitoring agency. Aftershock activity reveals the geometry of complex fault structures activated during the earthquake sequence and provides additional insights into the potential factors controlling the development of the largest events. Activated fault structures in the northern and southern regions appear complementary to faults activated during the 1997 Colfiorito and 2009 L’Aquila sequences, suggesting that earthquake triggering primarily occurs on critically stressed faults. Delineated major fault zones are relatively thick compared to estimated earthquake location uncertainties, and a large number of kilometer-long faults and diffuse seismicity were activated during the sequence. These properties might be related to fault age, roughness, and the complexity of inherited structures. The rich details resolvable in this catalog will facilitate continued investigation of this energetic and well-recorded earthquake sequence.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Small-Magnitude Seismic Swarms in Central Utah (US): Interactions of Regional Tectonics, Local Structures and Hydrothermal Systems

Swarms in Central Utah are situated in the complex transition between the Basin and Range (BR) province and the Colorado Plateau. Transecting transverse structures, volcanic deposits, and hydrothermal systems complicate the extensional BR horst and graben structures and provide a multitude of plausible triggering mechanisms. Revisiting the catalog of the University of Utah Seismograph Stations (1981–2022), we analyze spatio-temporal patterns and characteristic features of seismic sequences. Swarms with alternating seismicity rates, bursts, and longer swarms with persistent moment release exhibit a remarkable diversity in temporal evolution. Swarm durations do not scale with cumulative seismic moment: swarms lasting less than 1 day can have similar cumulative seismic moments as month-long swarms. Here, we observe stationary swarms re-occurring for years (e.g., Mineral Mountains), as well as singular swarms in low-seismicity areas (e.g., activating a local structure). The swarms show a pronounced heterogeneity in triggering and driving mechanisms, observed in the detailed analysis of exemplary sequences (detections, relocations, moment tensors, waveform-based clustering, and repeater analysis). The 2022 Sevier Valley sequence activated a BR-related normal fault, the first resolved fault plane in the valley since 1983. The 2011 Circleville sequence is interpreted as a swarm triggered by mainshock-aftershock activity characterized by increasing magnitudes, changing rupture mechanisms, and a concentration of highly similar events in the second part of the sequence. By jointly discussing exemplary sequences and catalog statistics, we draw a comprehensive picture of swarm activity and its relation to geothermal and tectonic activity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cyclic Injection Leads to Larger and More Frequent Induced Earthquakes under Volume-Controlled Conditions

As carbon storage technologies advance globally, methods to understand and mitigate induced earthquakes become increasingly important. Although the physical processes that relate increased subsurface pore pressure changes to induced earthquakes have long been known, reliable methods to forecast and control induced seismic sequences remain elusive. Suggested reservoir engineering scenarios for mitigating induced earthquakes typically involve modulation of the injection rate. Some operators have implemented periodic shutdowns (i.e., effective cycling of injection rates) to allow reservoir pressures to equilibrate (e.g., Paradox Valley) or shut-in wells after the occurrence of an event of concern (e.g., Basel, Switzerland). Other proposed scenarios include altering injection rates, actively managing pressures through coproduction of fluids, and preinjection brine extraction. Here, in this work, we use 3D physics-based earthquake simulations to understand the effects of different injection scenarios on induced earthquake rates, maximum event magnitudes, and postinjection seismicity. For comparability, the modeled injection considers the same cumulative volume over the project’s operational life but varies the schedule and rates of fluid injected. Simulation results show that cyclic injection leads to more frequent and larger events than constant injection. Furthermore, with intermittent injection scenario, a significant number of events are shown to occur during pauses in injection, and the seismicity rate remains elevated for longer into the postinjection phase compared to the constant injection scenario.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of the Earthquake Rupture on Ground-Motion Variability of the 24 August 2016 M w 6.2 Amatrice, Italy, Earthquake

Here, the devastating 24 August 2016 M w 6.2 earthquake that struck Amatrice, Italy, marked the beginning of a prolonged seismic sequence dominated by three subsequent M w ≥6.0 events in the central Apennines region. The earthquake destroyed Amatrice’s historic center, claiming the lives of 299 individuals and causing widespread damage in the neighboring villages. The severity of the ground shaking, with a recorded maximum acceleration of 850 cm/s 2 on the east–west component at the Amatrice station, was far greater than the predicted acceleration based on the Italian ground-motion model (GMM). As pointed out by several investigations, the observed ground-motion amplitude and its spatial variability during the earthquake can be linked to specific rupture characteristics, including slip distribution and rupture directivity effects revealed by the observed data (Tinti et al., 2016; Pischiutta et al., 2021). In this study, we conducted physics-based 3D numerical simulations of ground motion for the Amatrice earthquake for frequencies up to 3 Hz. We employed a series of kinematic rupture models and a well-constrained local 3D velocity model incorporating surface topography. The kinematic rupture realizations were generated using multiscale hybrid and fully stochastic models, following the technique proposed by Graves and Pitarka (2016). We focused on assessing the sensitivity of near-fault ground-motion amplitudes to earthquake rupture characteristics, in particular, the spatial slip pattern. To evaluate the quality of our simulations, we employed goodness-of-fit measurements performed in comparisons of simulated and recorded ground motions. The simulated ground motions compare well with the recorded data and predictions from GMMs for Italy, ITA18 (Lanzano et al., 2019). However, we found that the simulated interevent ground-motion variability (randomness in the source process) of peak ground velocity, σ (PGV) is higher than the constant σ (PGV) predicted by conventional GMMs. Our simulations using several rupture scenarios demonstrate that the near-fault ground-motion amplification pattern is directly related to the slip distribution pattern.

3D Ground Motions Simulations↗
DOE OSTI2022

Source scaling comparison and validation in Central Italy: data intensive direct S waves versus the sparse data coda envelope methodology

SUMMARY Robustness of source parameter estimates is a fundamental issue in understanding the relationships between small and large events; however, it is difficult to assess how much of the variability of the source parameters can be attributed to the physical source characteristics or to the uncertainties of the methods and data used to estimate the values. In this study, we apply the coda method by Mayeda et al. using the coda calibration tool (CCT), a freely available Java-based code (https://github.com/LLNL/coda-calibration-tool) to obtain a regional calibration for Central Italy for estimating stable source parameters. We demonstrate the power of the coda technique in this region and show that it provides the same robustness in source parameter estimation as a data-driven methodology [generalized inversion technique (GIT)], but with much fewer calibration events and stations. The Central Italy region is ideal for both GIT and coda approaches as it is characterized by high-quality data, including recent well-recorded seismic sequences such as L'Aquila (2009) and Amatrice–Norcia–Visso (2016–2017). This allows us to apply data-driven methods such as GIT and coda-based methods that require few, but high-quality data. The data set for GIT analysis includes ∼5000 earthquakes and more than 600 stations, while for coda analysis we used a small subset of 39 events spanning 3.5 < Mw < 6.33 and 14 well-distributed broad-band stations. For the common calibration events, as well as an additional 247 events (∼1.7 < Mw < ∼5.0) not used in either calibration, we find excellent agreement between GIT-derived and CCT-derived source spectra. This confirms the ability of the coda approach to obtain stable source parameters even with few calibration events and stations. Even reducing the coda calibration data set by 75 per cent, we found no appreciable degradation in performance. This validation of the coda calibration approach over a broad range of event size demonstrates that this procedure, once extended to other regions, represents a powerful tool for future routine applications to homogeneously evaluate robust source parameters on a national scale. Furthermore, the coda calibration procedure can homogenize the Mw estimates for small and large events without the necessity of introducing any conversion scale between narrow-band measures such as local magnitude (ML) and Mw, which has been shown to introduce significant bias.

Morasca, Paola (ORCID:0000000265254867)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coda Envelope Ratio Tool

The Coda Envelope Ratio Tool (CERT) allows for calculating seismic envelopes from waveforms and measuring the amplitude ratios for multiple events against each other to invert for seismic source information. The methodology is based on Walter, W. R., Yoo, S.-H., Mayeda, K., and Gök, R. (2017), Earthquake stress via event ratio levels: Application to the 2011 and 2016 Oklahoma seismic sequences, Geophys. Res. Lett., 3147- 3155, 44, doi:10.1002/2016GL072348.

Barno, JustinG↗
NASA NTRS2020

Seasonal Variations of Seismic Activity on Mars?

We analyze the sequence of seismic events of different types as recorded by the SEIS instrument of the InSight mission. After several weeks without any detection, event counts started to increase at the end of May 2019. The majority of recorded events belongs to the class of 2.4 Hz events, which prominently excite a continuously observed natural resonance frequency. Comparison with expected event counts from a constant-rate Poisson process shows a repeated, step wise increase of the event rate with time. At the same time, event amplitudes, and hence magnitudes, are found to increase as well.

Knapmeyer, M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recent seismicity at Ceboruco Volcano (Mexico)

Magma and related hydrothermal fluid movement, and their interaction with solid rock, in active volcanic regions, generate a wide variety of seismic waves whose characterization can mitigate the risk of a potential eruption. Located in the western region of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Ceboruco Volcano, whose last eruptive period was 1870–1875, is considered to be one of the most hazardous volcanoes in Mexico. We have conducted a detailed study of the seismicity in the surroundings of Ceboruco's volcanic edifice to assess the current state of this volcano. A dense temporary seismic network with 25 seismic stations in an area of 16 km × 16 km was deployed between November 2016 and July 2017, as part of the P-24 project of the CeMIEGeo consortium; this effort has allowed the detection of 81 earthquakes concentrated beneath the crater with depths between 4 and 8 km. In this study, we observe that the recorded seismicity occurs in swarms, and we specifically identify four sequences that we characterize in detail via the first focal mechanisms available for this volcano. Our results suggest a change in the local seismicity distribution compared to earlier observations, which reported seismic activity near the volcano edifice associated with fluid migration along zones of weakness related to the extensional stresses of the Tepic-Zacoalco rift. The changes in seismic patterns and obtained focal mechanisms are consistent with observed fluid effects at many geothermal sites worldwide, but also could suggest resumption of activity at this currently dormant volcano.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1998

GPS Monitoring of Surface Change During and Following the Fortuitous Occurrence of the M(sub w) = 7.3 Landers Earthquake in our Network

Accomplishments: (1) Continues GPS monitoring of surface change during and following the fortuitous occurrence of the M(sub w) = 7.3 Landers earthquake in our network, in order to characterize earthquake dynamics and accelerated activity of related faults as far as 100's of kilometers along strike. (2) Integrates the geodetic constraints into consistent kinematic descriptions of the deformation field that can in turn be used to characterize the processes that drive geodynamics, including seismic cycle dynamics. In 1991, we installed and occupied a high precision GPS geodetic network to measure transform-related deformation that is partitioned from the Pacific - North America plate boundary northeastward through the Mojave Desert, via the Eastern California shear zone to the Walker Lane. The onset of the M(sub w) = 7.3 June 28, 1992, Landers, California, earthquake sequence within this network poses unique opportunities for continued monitoring of regional surface deformation related to the culmination of a major seismic cycle, characterization of the dynamic behavior of continental lithosphere during the seismic sequence, and post-seismic transient deformation. During the last year, we have reprocessed all three previous epochs for which JPL fiducial free point positioning products available and are queued for the remaining needed products, completed two field campaigns monitoring approx. 20 sites (October 1995 and September 1996), begun modeling by development of a finite element mesh based on network station locations, and developed manuscripts dealing with both the Landers-related transient deformation at the latitude of Lone Pine and the velocity field of the whole experiment. We are currently deploying a 1997 observation campaign (June 1997). We use GPS geodetic studies to characterize deformation in the Mojave Desert region and related structural domains to the north, and geophysical modeling of lithospheric behavior. The modeling is constrained by our existing and continued GPS measurements, which will provide much needed data on far-field strain accumulation across the region and on the deformational response of continental lithosphere during and following a large earthquake, forming the basis for kinematic and dynamic modeling of secular and seismic-cycle deformation. GPS geodesy affords both regional coverage and high precision that uniquely bear on these problems.

Miller, M. Meghan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seismic Features Predict Ground Motions During Repeating Caldera Collapse Sequence

Abstract Applying machine learning to continuous acoustic emissions, signals previously deemed noise, from laboratory faults and slowly slipping subduction‐zone faults, demonstrates hidden signatures are emitted that describe physical details, including fault displacement and friction. However, no evidence currently exists to demonstrate that similar hidden signals occur during seismogenic stick‐slip on earthquake faults—the damaging earthquakes of most societal interest. We show that continuous seismic emissions emitted during the 2018 multi‐month caldera collapse sequence at the Kı̄lauea volcano in Hawai'i contain hidden signatures characterizing the earthquake cycle. Multi‐spectral data features extracted from 30 s intervals of the continuous seismic emission are used to train a gradient boosted tree regression model to predict the GNSS‐derived contemporaneous surface displacement and time‐to‐failure of the upcoming collapse event. This striking result suggests that at least some faults emit such signals and provide a potential path to characterizing the instantaneous and future behavior of earthquake faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Network analysis of earthquake ground motion spatial correlation: a case study with the San Jacinto seismic nodal array

SUMMARY The spatial correlation of earthquake ground motion intensity can be measured from strong motion data; however, the data used in past studies is sparsely sampled in space, and only the interstation distance was considered as a correlation variable. These limitations mean that we have only weak constraints on the true correlation structure of ground motion and that potentially important aspects of spatial correlation are unconstrained. In this study, we combine a large-N seismic array and graph analytics to explore this issue at a local scale using small local and regional earthquakes. Our result suggests site conditions, and how they interact with the incident seismic wavefield, strongly condition the spatial correlation of ground motion. Future progress in characterizing ground motion spatial variability will require dense wavefield measurements, either through nodal deployments, or perhaps distributed acoustic sensing measurements, of seismic wavefields. Aftershock sequences of major earthquakes would provide particularly data-rich targets of opportunity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nowcasting Earthquakes in Southern California With Machine Learning: Bursts, Swarms, and Aftershocks May Be Related to Levels of Regional Tectonic Stress

Abstract Seismic bursts in Southern California are sequences of small earthquakes strongly clustered in space and time and include seismic swarms and aftershock sequences. A readily observable property of these events, the radius of gyration ( R G ), allows us to connect the bursts to the temporal occurrence of the largest M ≥ 7 earthquakes in California since 1984. In the Southern California earthquake catalog, we identify hundreds of these potentially coherent space‐time structures in a region defined by a circle of radius 600 km around Los Angeles. We compute R G for each cluster then filter them to identify those bursts with large numbers of events closely clustered in space, which we call “compact” bursts. Our basic assumption is that these compact bursts reflect the dynamics associated with large earthquakes. Once we have filtered the burst catalog, we apply an exponential moving average to construct a time series for the Southern California region. We observe that the R G of these bursts systematically decreases prior to large earthquakes, in a process that we might term “radial localization.” The R G then rapidly increases during an aftershock sequence, and a new cycle of “radial localization” then begins. These time series display cycles of recharge and discharge reminiscent of seismic stress accumulation and release in the elastic rebound process. The complex burst dynamics we observe are evidently a property of the region as a whole, rather than being associated with individual faults. This new method allows us to improve earthquake nowcasting, which is a technique to evaluate the current state of hazard in a seismically active region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Multi-Hazard Risk and Safety Considerations for Aging Nuclear Facilities (Revision 1)

This project will demonstrate a multi-hazard time-dependent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach for nuclear facilities considering aging-related deterioration of structures. A generic pressurized water reactor (PWR) reactor subjected to seismic mainshock-aftershock sequences considering the aging of the containment structure will be used as a case study to demonstrate the multi-hazard PRA approach. Using advanced modeling and simulation, seismic mainshock-aftershock fragility functions will be simulated for the containment structure considering aging effects. A multi-hazard PRA model for a generic PWR reactor will be built to quantify the multi-hazard core damage frequency (CDF) and large early release frequency (LERF) with explicit time-dependent modeling of event sequences. To date, the cascading impacts of multi-hazards are not adequately accounted for in the PRA models for nuclear facilities. In addition, for both initial and periodic evaluation of facilities to withstand natural phenomena hazards (NPH), deterioration of the SSCs due to aging and other effects is not adequately considered. By advancing multi-hazard considerations accounting for aging effects, this project will contribute to improved understanding of the safety of aging nuclear facilities. Project outcomes such as the multi-hazard CDF and LERF will also allow facility owners to optimize upgrade and retrofit protocols. This project is divided into two components: (1) advanced modeling and simulations; and (2) multi-hazard PRA. For the first component, Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Multi-hazard Analysis for STOchastic time-DOmaiN phenomena (MASTODON) and BlackBear codes will be used to simulate the seismic response and damage of a containment structure under cascading mainshock-aftershock sequences with aging effects. Uncertainties related to the seismic inputs, material parameters, and environmental factors such as temperature and humidity will be identified and propagated to the fragility functions. These fragility functions, which consider aging effects, will be time dependent. The second component will take the fragility information from the first component to build a multi-hazard time-dependent PRA model starting from a generic PWR model to evaluate the multi-hazard CDF and LERF and characterize the associated consequences. For this component, OpenPRA Web Application and SAPHIRE code will be used. Events such as the Fukushima Daiichi accident have highlighted the importance of considering the cascading impacts of multi-hazards for PRA. Moreover, many of the reactors in the current nuclear fleet in the United States (US) are already operating well beyond their initially planned design life, and applications for further extensions to operating licenses are being considered. Therefore, considering multi-hazard effects and aging deterioration in the NPH risk assessment process will contribute to the safety of both existing and future nuclear facilities. Outcomes of this project will thus directly benefit the standards DOE-STD-1020-16 and DOE-HDBK-1224-18.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the Aftershock Duration of Induced Earthquakes

As the carbon sequestration community prepares to scale up the number and size of commercial operations, the need for tools and methods to assess and mitigate risks associated with these operations becomes increasingly important. One outstanding question is whether aftershocks of induced events decay quickly after injection operations cease or if aftershock activity persists for hundreds of years before returning to background levels more akin to tectonic events (Stein and Liu, 2009). Appropriate estimates of the aftershock duration impact several operational management decisions including mitigation strategies and post-injection monitoring for seismic activity. It is hypothesized that induced earthquake rates may diminish more quickly after injection is stopped, owing to higher stressing rates from injected fluids. Alternatively, it is plausible that only the first event in the sequence is induced by increased fluid overpressures, whereas subsequent events (e.g., aftershocks) respond to the stored tectonic stresses and static and dynamic stress changes due to the mainshock (Keranen et al., 2013). Further, if the aftershock duration can be linked to stressing rates due to injection, then it follows that operational strategies to reduce seismic hazard by reducing injection rates or volumes may be successful. However, if aftershocks of induced events are relieving stored tectonic stresses, then altering injection volumes may not alleviate ongoing seismic activity. Furthermore, knowledge of an aftershock duration could aid in the determination of an appropriate post-injection monitoring period for ongoing seismicity, which is a factor in overall operational costs. In this study, we model induced seismicity sequences in Oklahoma with a coupled Coulomb rate–state earthquake rate model (Dieterich, 1994; Kroll et al., 2017) to estimate aftershocks durations. Results for the current study indicate that elevated rates of aftershock activity following induced mainshocks return to background seismicity rates in less than five years, contrary to the tens to hundreds of years observed for tectonic aftershocks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗