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Identifying geological structures through microseismic cluster and burst analyses complementing active seismic interpretation

At the Decatur carbon capture and storage site (IL, USA) CO 2 has been injected from 2011–2014 and from 2017 to present near the base of the Lower Mt. Simon Sandstone saline reservoir, resulting in microseismicity. Microseismicity is mainly located in the basement and distributed in distinct spatial clusters. The lack of significant impedance contrasts within the basement makes the interpretation of active-source seismic reflection data challenging, however, recent reprocessing allowed to resolve faults above and at the top of the basement. These faults generally do not coincide with the location of microseismic events and their continuation to the general depth of the seismic events cannot be assumed. This paper shows how the interpretation of the microseismicity can complement structural interpretations of active-source seismic reflection data. In particular, we analyze clusters and bursts (abrupt increases) of microseismicity, identify unresolved, smaller-scale weaknesses and extract statistical parameters. These parameters allow comparisons with the interpreted faults, and with fracture sets intercepted by boreholes. During injection at the Decatur site, the injection pressure was kept far below fracture pressure, nevertheless, seismic events were induced and spread far beyond the expected extent of the CO 2 plume. We argue that local stress transfers related to the CO 2 injection reactivated pre-existing fractures within the critically stressed basement. Finally, we conducted a slip tendency analysis for faults interpreted from active seismic, selected cluster, bursts and nodal planes from focal mechanisms to determine if the interpreted structures are optimally oriented with respect to the stress regime. Our results suggest that the orientation of fractures close to the injection well, generally shows slight deviations from the optimal orientation for slip. This might indicate either slight local deviations of the maximum horizontal stress azimuth from the average direction used in the analysis, or the lack of optimally oriented fractures at this location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Small-Magnitude Seismic Swarms in Central Utah (US): Interactions of Regional Tectonics, Local Structures and Hydrothermal Systems

Swarms in Central Utah are situated in the complex transition between the Basin and Range (BR) province and the Colorado Plateau. Transecting transverse structures, volcanic deposits, and hydrothermal systems complicate the extensional BR horst and graben structures and provide a multitude of plausible triggering mechanisms. Revisiting the catalog of the University of Utah Seismograph Stations (1981–2022), we analyze spatio-temporal patterns and characteristic features of seismic sequences. Swarms with alternating seismicity rates, bursts, and longer swarms with persistent moment release exhibit a remarkable diversity in temporal evolution. Swarm durations do not scale with cumulative seismic moment: swarms lasting less than 1 day can have similar cumulative seismic moments as month-long swarms. Here, we observe stationary swarms re-occurring for years (e.g., Mineral Mountains), as well as singular swarms in low-seismicity areas (e.g., activating a local structure). The swarms show a pronounced heterogeneity in triggering and driving mechanisms, observed in the detailed analysis of exemplary sequences (detections, relocations, moment tensors, waveform-based clustering, and repeater analysis). The 2022 Sevier Valley sequence activated a BR-related normal fault, the first resolved fault plane in the valley since 1983. The 2011 Circleville sequence is interpreted as a swarm triggered by mainshock-aftershock activity characterized by increasing magnitudes, changing rupture mechanisms, and a concentration of highly similar events in the second part of the sequence. By jointly discussing exemplary sequences and catalog statistics, we draw a comprehensive picture of swarm activity and its relation to geothermal and tectonic activity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Large Torque Variations in Two Soft Gamma Repeaters

We have monitored the pulse frequencies of the two soft gamma repeaters SGR 1806-20 and SGR 1900+14 through the beginning of year 2001 using primarily Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer Proportional Counter Array observations. In both sources, we observe large changes in the spin-down torque up to a factor of approximately 4, which persist for several months. Using long baseline phase-connected timing solutions as well as the overall frequency histories, we construct torque noise power spectra for each SGR. The power spectrum of each source is very red (power-law slope approximately -3.5). These power spectra are consistent in normalization with some accreting systems, yet much steeper in slope than any known accreting source. To the best of our knowledge, torque noise power spectra with a comparably steep frequency dependence have only been seen in young, glitching radio pulsars (e.g. Vela). The observed changes in spin-down rate do not correlate with burst activity, therefore, the physical mechanisms behind each phenomenon are also likely unrelated. Within the context of the magnetar model, seismic activity cannot account for both the bursts and the long-term torque changes unless the seismically active regions are decoupled from one another.

Woods, Peter M.↗

Unsupervised Clustering of Microseismic Events and Focal Mechanism Analysis at the CO 2 Injection Site in Decatur, Illinois

Characterization of induced microseismicity at a carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage site is critical for preserving reservoir integrity and mitigating seismic hazards. We apply a multilevel machine learning (ML) approach that combines the nonnegative matrix factorization and hidden Markov model to extract spectral representations of microseismic events and cluster them to identify seismic patterns at the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project. Unlike traditional waveform correlation methods, this approach leverages spectral characteristics of first arrivals to improve event classification and detect previously undetected planes of weakness. By integrating ML-based clustering with focal mechanism analysis, we resolve small-scale fault structures that are below the detection limits of conventional seismic imaging. Our findings reveal temporal bursts of microseismicity associated with brittle failure, providing insights into the spatio-temporal evolution of fault reactivation during CO 2 injection. This approach enhances seismic monitoring capabilities at CO 2 injection sites by improving fault characterization beyond the resolution of standard geophysical surveys.

Willis, Rachel Marie [Sandia National Laboratories↗

Large Torque Variations in Two Soft Gamma Repeaters

We have monitored the pulse frequencies of the two soft gamma repeaters SGR 1806-20 and SGR 1900+14 through the beginning of year 2001 using primarily Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer Proportional Counter Array observations. In both sources, we observe large changes in the spin-down torque up to a factor of approximately 4, which persist for several months. Using long-baseline phase-connected timing solutions as well as the overall frequency histories, we construct torque noise power spectra for each SGR (Soft Gamma Repeater). The power spectrum of each source is very red (power-law slope is approximately -3.5). The torque noise power levels are consistent with some accreting systems on timescales of approximately 1 yr, yet the full power spectrum is much steeper in frequency than any known accreting source. To the best of our knowledge, torque noise power spectra with a comparably steep frequency dependence have been seen only in young, glitching radio pulsars (e.g., Vela). The observed changes in spin-down rate do not correlate with burst activity; therefore, the physical mechanisms behind each phenomenon are also likely unrelated. Within the context of the magnetar model, seismic activity can not account for both the bursts and the long-term torque changes unless the seismically active regions are decoupled from one another.

Woods, Peter M.↗

Material transfers detection with seismic observations

We are exploring the use of data from a seismic network around a research nuclear reactor and isotope production facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to study activity patterns related to the transfer of nuclear material. A sensor network with eight seismometers was installed around the High Flux Isotope Reactor and the Radiochemical Engineering Development Center and started operating in October 2019. These data are used to detect and characterize operational events around facility. We are using those data to extract signals related to the movement of vehicles involved in the transport of nuclear materials (e.g., transportation of reactor fuel, targets, and product isotopes). Large vehicles produce mechanical energy that can be observed as seismic signals, either as the result of sound emanating from the vehicle engine or by the generation of surface waves as a response of the ground to the load of the vehicles. In particular, the station located near the entrance gate of the facility displays a clear seismic signature as vehicles cross a metal platform on the ground. This signal is characterized by sharp energy bursts that correspond to the number of axles on the vehicle. We developed and are testing an algorithm to identify sequences of energy bursts to count and characterize vehicles of different sizes. We are also exploring the use of seismic polarization analysis to measure the degree of polarization of the observed signals. These two techniques for detection and characterization of vehicles used for nuclear material transfers will be validated with seismic data from a targeted collection using different vehicles and routes similar to the ones used in real-life scenarios at the High Flux Isotope Reactor.

Marcillo, Omar↗

Learning the Low Frequency Earthquake Activity on the Central San Andreas Fault

Abstract Low frequency earthquakes (LFEs) originating below the central San Andreas Fault are associated with slow‐slip beneath the seismogenic zone within the more ductile portion of the crust. Monitoring efforts over 15 years detected >1 million LFEs. We train a gradient boosted tree model using statistical features describing the seismic waveforms to estimate the hourly LFE event count. The burst‐like LFE behavior is reproduced, while lower amplitudes are predicted during the most active periods. The hourly event counts are up to 18% greater than the catalog. The ability to continuously monitor LFE activity provides insight to when geodetic measurements of slow slip are possible, without the need for developing a computational‐intensive template‐matching catalog. Similar waveform statistical features are found between detecting LFEs and tremors, which provides additional evidence tremors are composed of LFEs. The approach extracts information contained in continuous seismic waveforms that might benefit detecting precursory signals.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Neutron starquakes and the nature of gamma-ray bursts

The possibility that gamma-ray bursts originate from quakes deep in the solid crust of a neutron star is investigated. Seismic waves are radiated if shear stress is relieved by brittle fracture. However they cannot propagate directly to the surface but are temporarily trapped below a reflecting layer. The shaking of the stellar surface couples the seismic waves to Alfven waves which propagate out into the magnetosphere. The crust-magnetosphere transmission coefficient strongly increases with wave frequency and magnetic field strength. Alfven wave luminosities sufficient to power galactic gamma-ray bursts are possible if magnetic fields greater than 100 billion G cover at least part of the stellar surface. As the Alfven waves propagate out into the low density magnetosphere, they become increasingly charge starved, thereby accelerating particles to relativistic energies.

Madau, P.↗

Creation of Speed-of-Sound Inject Data for Technical Nuclear Forensics

Technical Nuclear Forensics (TNF) exercises simulate a detonation of a nuclear device within the United States, usually in a city. Speed-of-sound (SOS) phenomenology are the atmospheric overpressure and ground shock mechanical motions that are observed at over-pressure (air-blast and infrasound) and seismic sensors, respectively (Figure 1). Amplitudes of SOS data are related to the explosive yield (Kinney and Graham, 1985; Koper et al., 2002; Bonner et al., 2013ab; Ford et al., 2014, 2021; Templeton et al., 2018; Schnurr et al., 2020). Within the country, the United States Prompt Diagnostics System (USPDS) includes a network of geophysical sensors to capture such SOS signals. During the TNF exercise, the event data will be analyzed by the players who know nothing about the technical details of the source (e.g. location, yield, explosive). Specifically, they will use the Integrated Yield Determination Tool (IYDT) to estimate the yield and height-of-burst or depth-of-burial (HOB/DOB). The IYDT allows the user to measure features on the overpressure and seismic channels, evaluate the consistency of features and jointly estimate yield and HOB/DOB. For these exercises, SOS data are simulated for the location, emplacement and yield of the device and signals are propagated to the observing stations. This document describes the steps undertaken in the simulation, validation, preparation and verification of SOS signals for TNF exercises.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Neutron starquake models for gamma-ray bursts

The component parts of gamma-ray burst models based on neutron starquakes are assessed. The requirements for, and the properties of, neutron starquakes are reviewed. The coupling of seismic waves to Alfven waves is evaluated and the behavior of Alfven waves in the magnetosphere is investigated. An attempt is made to identify the principal sources of free energy in the interiors of old neutron stars.

Blaes, O.↗

Anatomy of Continuous Mars SEIS and Pressure Data from Unsupervised Learning

The seismic noise recorded by the Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy, and Heat Transport (InSight) seismometer (Seismic Experiment for Interior Structure [SEIS]) has a strong daily quasi-periodicity and numerous transient microevents, associated mostly with an active Martian environment with wind bursts, pressure drops, in addition to thermally induced lander and instrument cracks. That noise is far from the Earth’s microseismic noise. Quantifying the importance of nonstochasticity and identifying these microevents is mandatory for improving continuous data quality and noise analysis techniques, including autocorrelation. Cataloging these events has so far been made with specific algorithms and operator’s visual inspection. We investigate here the continuous data with an unsupervised deep-learning approach built on a deep scattering network. This leads to the successful detection and clustering of these microevents as well as better determination of daily cycles associated with changes in the intensity and color of the background noise. We first provide a description of our approach, and then present the learned clusters followed by a study of their origin and associated physical phenomena. We show that the clustering is robust over several Martian days, showing distinct types of glitches that repeat at a rate of several tens per sol with stable time differences. We show that the clustering and detection efficiency for pressure drops and glitches is comparable to or better than manual or targeted detection techniques proposed to date, noticeably with an unsupervised approach. Finally, here we discuss the origin of other clusters found, especially glitch sequences with stable time offsets that might generate artifacts in autocorrelation analyses. We conclude with presenting the potential of unsupervised learning for long-term space mission operations, in particular, for geophysical and environmental observatories.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Designing Yield Grids for Airborne Nuclear Explosions to Maintain Decrements in Rayleigh Waveform Amplitudes

This document details a method for selecting grid points that sample the yields of airborne, low yield nuclear explosions that constrains the relative size of seismic waveforms sourced by explosions that are parameterized by this grid. In detail, we impose this constraint so that the vertical component of ground displacement that is sourced by explosions with a fixed height of burst (HoB) at grid point k change by a fixed factor of a when compared to the waveform amplitudes sourced by explosions at grid point k + 1, as observed at a fixed standoff distance. This gridding thereby preserves amplitude ratios along the grid so that they are agnostic to k. We assert that this method is useful in tests that apply algorithms against synthetic or augmented datasets for which the performance of the algorithm must be measured against source size, and waveform amplitudes must change uniformly (e.g., Berg et al, 2025).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Intruder Detector

The shadowy prowler is attempting a break-in, unaware that his presence has already been detected and reported by the device in the lower left corner of the photo. It is part of a three-element ntruder Detecti on System developed by NASA's Ames Research Center from technology acquired in the Apollo lunar exploration program. Apollo astronauts left behind on the moon small portable seismic (shock) detectors to record subsurface vibrations and transmit to Earth data on the moon's density and thickness. A similar seismic detector is the key component of the lntruder Detection System. Encased in a stainless steel tube, the detector is implanted in the ground outside the facility being protected-home, bank, industrial or other facilities. The vibration-sensing detector picks up the footstep of anyone within a preset range. The detector is connected by cable to the transmitter, which relays the warning to a portable radio receiver. The radio alerts plant guards or home occupants by emitting an audible tone burst for each footstep.

Source record↗

En echelon faults reactivated by wastewater disposal near Musreau Lake, Alberta

We use machine-learning and cross-correlation techniques to enhance earthquake detectability by two magnitude units for the earthquake sequence near Musreau Lake, Alberta, which is induced by wastewater disposal. This deep catalogue reveals a series of en echelon ~N–S oriented strike-slip faults that are favourably oriented for reactivation. These faults require only ~0.6 MPa overpressure for triggering to occur. Earthquake activity occurs in bursts, or episodes; episodes restricted to the largest fault tend to have earthquakes starting near the southern end (distant from injectors) and progressing northwards (towards the injectors). While most events are concentrated along these ~N–S oriented faults, we also delineate smaller faults. Together, these findings suggest pore pressure as the triggering mechanism, where a time-dependent increase in pore pressure likely caused these faults to progressively reawaken. Analysis of the ‘next record-breaking event’, a statistical model that forecasts the sequencing of earthquake magnitudes, suggests that the next largest event would be M L ~4.3. The seismically illuminated length of the largest fault indicates potential magnitudes as large as M w 5.3.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Missile impact craters (White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico) and applications to lunar research: Contributions to astrogeology

Craters in natural materials at White Sands Missile Range, N. Mex., were produced by the impact of high-velocity to hypervelocity missiles traveling along oblique trajectories with kinetic energies between 2.1 and 81 × 1014 ergs. The oblique impacts produce craters 2 to 10 m across with morphologies and ejecta that are bilaterally symmetrical with respect to the plane of the missile trajectory. Rims are high and the amount of ejecta large in down-trajectory and lateral directions, whereas rims are low to nonexistent and ejecta thin to absent up-trajectory. Symmetry development and modifications of the symmetry are a function of target material, local topography, and angle of impact. Seven mappable units can be recognized in and around the craters. Three of these are ejecta: thick ejecta near the crater, thin to discontinuous ejecta at greater distances, and scattered ejecta at the greatest distances to the limit of throwout. These ejecta units may be absent on the up-trajectory side; if present, they are rarely as thick or continuous as on other sides of the crater. Three units are target materials: undeformed target material exposed in local patches through thin to discontinuous ejecta and everywhere between the fragments of scattered ejecta, tilted and broken target material exposed in upper crater walls, and shattered and fractured target material exposed on the up-trajectory crater wall. The seventh unit is slope material composed of talus and fallback within the crater. Development, character, and exposure of these units varies chiefly with the target material. Ejecta from the craters is chiefly broken but relatively undeformed target material that may range in size from very fine grained debris to large blocks. Where the target is porous, significant amounts of the ejecta are composed of sheared and compressed fragments, some coated with dark layers of mixed projectile pieces, powder, and fused metal mixed with crushed target material. For layered targets, the original stratigraphic sequence is crudely preserved and in inverted order in thick ejecta. Secondary impact craters are produced by the impact of ejected fragments when the surrounding surface materials are sufficiently weak. A wide variety of secondary impact crater relations may result. Secondary craters nearest the primary crater have blocks in them that are larger than or the same size as the crater they produced. Farther from the primary crater, the fragments are generally smaller than the secondary crater and are ejected from it. Excavation of four craters revealed a mixed breccia beneath the crater floor composed of missile pieces, sheared and compressed target material, and crushed debris. Banded, disaggregated target material and nonmixed breccia surrounded the mixed breccia, and these breccias were surrounded by a zone of conjugate fractures. Beneath the ejecta on the lateral and down-trajectory crater flanks, the target materials were tilted upward and broken. Up-trajectory, open fractures and downward displacement occurred in two of the craters. No displacement was observed for the other two. Beneath the down-trajectory rims of craters with distinct layering, overturned synclines were observed. Missile breakup and behavior during cratering are a function of target and missile properties. Missile breakup depends on missile velocity and is most extensive at high velocities, where the missile is fragmented, powdered, and partly fused. Burial of missile or its fragmented, powdered, and fused remains is greatest for porous targets and least for dense cohesive targets. For very porous targets, camouflet structures containing the fragmented missile may form. Least squares fit to the data on craters in dry to moist targets indicate V(a) = 10^(-11.433)E(p)^(1.205) where V(a) is the volume of the apparent crater and E(p) is the kinetic energy of the missile. This equation is consistent with expectations of the equations relating apparent depth and radius to kinetic energy. Extrapolation of displaced masses and kinetic energies for laboratory impacts with sand and rock converge near 10^(15) to 10^(16) ergs, where the extrapolations are near the data on missile impact craters, corrected for impact angle. Displaced masses of craters produced by missile impacts and by chemical explosives with small scaled depths of burial are about the same when the kinetic energies of the missiles (corrected for angle of impact) are equal to the TNT equivalent energy of the explosive. The problem of equivalent scaled depth of burst for an impact crater is complicated and not entirely resolved, however. Both missile impact craters and chemical explosive craters in water-saturated targets are larger than their counterparts in dry to moist materials. Data collected during the study of missile impact craters have helped resolve a number of problems in lunar research: (1) the soillike nature of lunar surface materials was predicted, (2) sizes of craters produced by artificial impacts were correctly predicted, (3) certain features imaged by Surveyor were found to be analogous to features associated with missile impact craters, {4) missile impacts were used in support of the Apollo passive seismic experiment, (5) craters seen in Apollo orbital photographs were found to be similar to some missile impact craters, (6) missile impact craters supplied data on sample collection and crater phenomenology used in training astronauts, and (7) some returned lunar samples are similar to coated, sheared, and compressed fragments ejected from missile impact craters.

H. J. Moore↗

Small Stirling Technology Exploration Power for Future Space Science Missions

High efficiency dynamic Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) could be mission enabling for low power space applications such as small probes, landers rovers, and communication repeaters. These applications would contain science instruments and be distributed across planetary surfaces or near objects of interest where solar flux is insufficient for using solar cells. Small RPS could be used to provide power for sensing radiation, temperature, pressure, seismic activity, and other measurements of interest to planetary scientists. Small RPS would use fractional versions of the General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) or Light Weight Radioisotope Heater Units (LWRHU), to heat power conversion technologies. Dynamic power systems are capable of three to four times higher conversion efficiency compared to static power conversion technologies, and would provide an equal amount of power using less fuel or more power using an equal amount of fuel. Providing spacecraft with more power could decrease duty cycling of basic functions and, therefore, increase the quality and abundance of science data. NASA GRC is developing a low power dynamic RPS that would convert heat from multiple LWRHU to one watt of usable direct current electric power for spacecraft instrumentation and communication. The power system could be used to charge batteries or capacitors for higher power burst usage. The initial design, called Small Stirling Technology Exploration Power (smallSTEP), is around 3 kg, 11 cm diameter X 32 cm long, and converts 8 watts of heat to one watt of electricity using a Stirling convertor. This low power conversion system represents a new class of RPS with power levels two orders of magnitude lower than prototypes currently being developed for space applications under NASA contracts. Development of the 1-watt RPS includes maturation of convertor and controller designs, performance evaluation of an evacuated metal foil insulation, and development of system interfaces. Initial demonstration of the subsystems has been completed in a laboratory environment and a higher fidelity system is being pursued for demonstration in relevant environments for use on small spacecraft needed to carry out future space science missions.

Wilson, Scott D.↗

Small Stirling Technology Exploration Power for Future Space Science Missions

High efficiency dynamic Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) could be mission enabling for low power space applications such as small probes, landers rovers, and communication repeaters. These applications would contain science instruments and be distributed across planetary surfaces or near objects of interest where solar flux is insufficient for using solar cells. Small RPS could be used to provide power for sensing radiation, temperature, pressure, seismic activity, and other measurements of interest to planetary scientists. Small RPS would use fractional versions of the General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) or Light Weight Radioisotope Heater Units (LWRHU), to heat power conversion technologies. Dynamic power systems are capable of three to four times higher conversion efficiency compared to static power conversion technologies, and would provide an equal amount of power using less fuel or more power using an equal amount of fuel. Providing spacecraft with more power could decrease duty cycling of basic functions and, therefore, increase the quality and abundance of science data. NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is developing a low power dynamic RPS that would convert heat from multiple LWRHU to one watt of usable direct current electric power for spacecraft instrumentation and communication. The power system could be used to charge batteries or capacitors for higher power burst usage. The initial design, called Small Stirling Technology Exploration Power (smallSTEP), is around 3 kg, 11 cm diameter X 32 cm long, and converts 8 watts of heat to one watt of electricity using a Stirling convertor. This low power conversion system represents a new class of RPS with power levels two orders of magnitude lower than prototypes currently being developed for space applications under NASA contracts. Development of the 1-watt RPS includes maturation of convertor and controller designs, performance evaluation of an evacuated metal foil insulation, and development of system interfaces. Initial demonstration of the subsystems has been completed in a laboratory environment and a higher fidelity system is being pursued for demonstration in relevant environments for use on small spacecraft needed to carry out future space science missions.

Wilson, Scott↗