SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “sequential change point detection”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

12 records

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

Toward Statistical Real-Time Power Fault Detection

We propose statistical fault detection methodology based on high-frequency data streams that are becoming available in modern power grids. Our approach can be treated as an online (sequential) change point monitoring methodology. However, due to the mostly unexplored and very nonstandard structure of high-frequency power grid streaming data, substantial new statistical development is required to make this methodology practically applicable. The paper includes development of scalar detectors based on multichannel data streams, determination of data-driven alarm thresholds and investigation of the performance and robustness of the new tools. Due to a reasonably large database of faults, we can calculate frequencies of false and correct fault signals, and recommend implementations that optimize these empirical success rates.

bolted faults↗

NASA NTRS1994

Sea ice lead dynamics from ERS-1 SAR

The use of ERS-1 SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) images to measure ice lead changes and ice deformation, and thus to determine their relationships and compare them to theory, is reported. ERS-1 SAR data collected at the Alaska (U.S.) SAR facility are processed into low resolution geocoded images which are used as input to the Geophysical Processor System (GPS). The GPS uses cross correlation and edge detection on sequential pairs of images to track a regular 5 km array of grid points. The result for each sequential image pair is a field of ice displacement that contains, on average, more than 200 vectors. The GPS also classifies all the pixels of the images into one of four ice types based on the normalized backscatter coefficients and a seasonal look-up table. This allows all pixels to be labeled as either multiyear ice or as the first year ice and open water that comprise leads.

Stern, Harry L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Detecting fractures and monitoring hydraulic fracturing processes at the first EGS Collab testbed using borehole DAS ambient noise

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) require cost-effective monitoring of fracture networks. We validate the capability of using borehole distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) ambient noise for fracture monitoring using core photos and core logs. The EGS Collab project has conducted 10 m scale field experiments of hydraulic fracture stimulation using 50–60 m deep experimental wells at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead, South Dakota. The first EGS Collab testbed is located at 1616.67 m (4850 ft) depth at SURF and consists of one injection well, one production well, and six monitoring wells. All wells are drilled subhorizontally from an access tunnel called a drift. The project uses a single continuous fiber-optic cable installed sequentially in the six monitoring wells to record DAS data for monitoring hydraulic fracturing during stimulation. We analyze 60 s time records of the borehole DAS ambient noise data and compute the noise root-mean-square (rms) amplitude on each channel (points along the fiber cable) to obtain DAS ambient noise rms amplitude depth profiles along the monitoring wellbore. Our noise rms amplitude profiles indicate amplitude peaks at distinct depths. We compare the DAS noise rms amplitude profiles with borehole core photos and core logs and find that the DAS noise rms amplitude peaks correspond to the locations of fractures or lithologic changes indicated in the core photos or core logs. We then compute the hourly DAS noise rms amplitude profiles in two monitoring wells during three stimulation cycles in 72 h and find that the DAS noise rms amplitude profiles vary with time, indicating the fracture opening/growth or closing during the hydraulic stimulation. Our results demonstrate that borehole DAS passive ambient noise can be used to detect fractures and monitor fracturing processes in EGS reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1995

Space Shuttle Main Engine Propellant Path Leak Detection Using Sequential Image Processing

Initial research in this study using theoretical radiation transport models established that the occurrence of a leak is accompanies by a sudden but sustained change in intensity in a given region of an image. In this phase, temporal processing of video images on a frame-by-frame basis was used to detect leaks within a given field of view. The leak detection algorithm developed in this study consists of a digital highpass filter cascaded with a moving average filter. The absolute value of the resulting discrete sequence is then taken and compared to a threshold value to produce the binary leak/no leak decision at each point in the image. Alternatively, averaging over the full frame of the output image produces a single time-varying mean value estimate that is indicative of the intensity and extent of a leak. Laboratory experiments were conducted in which artificially created leaks on a simulated SSME background were produced and recorded from a visible wavelength video camera. This data was processed frame-by-frame over the time interval of interest using an image processor implementation of the leak detection algorithm. In addition, a 20 second video sequence of an actual SSME failure was analyzed using this technique. The resulting output image sequences and plots of the full frame mean value versus time verify the effectiveness of the system.

Smith, L. Montgomery↗

NASA NTRS1973

All digital precision processing of ERTS images

The author has identified the following significant results. Experimentation was conducted to evaluate the performance of the Sequential Similarity Detection Algorithm (SSDA) to detect and locate ground central points (GCP) automatically using MSS data. Recent experiments with ERTS data having a temporal separation of from 17 to 72 days between the search area and the GCP have shown that the algorithm can find the GCP's and with an overall probability of 88%. Band 5 appears to give the best results. A modified reseau detection algorithm has been applied to 2 RBV scenes separated by a 12 day period. The algorithm correctly located all 486 reseaus. No false reseaus were located in a companion experiment. Changes in apparent reseau position, due to camera characteristics, were never greater than 3 picture elements in either axis. The positional error of a geometrically corrected image has been predicted by the use of an APL program. The maximum deviation of the GCP's from true UTM coordinate position was computed to be 190 meters. The RMS positional error of all GCP's was 106 meters. Further refinement of the algorithm is expected to reduce the errors.

Bernstein, R.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Role of MODIS Vegetation Phenology Products in the ForWarn System for Monitoring of Forest Disturbances in the Conterminous United States

This presentation discusses MODIS vegetation phenology products used in the ForWarn Early Warning System (EWS) tool for near real time regional forest disturbance detection and surveillance at regional to national scales. The ForWarn EWS is being developed by the USDA Forest Service NASA, ORNL, and USGS to aid federal and state forest health management activities. ForWarn employs multiple historical land surface phenology products that are derived from MODIS MOD13 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data. The latter is temporally processed into phenology products with the Time Series Product Tool (TSPT) and the Phenological Parameter Estimation Tool (PPET) software produced at NASA Stennis Space Center. TSPT is used to effectively noise reduce, fuse, and void interpolate MODIS NDVI data. PPET employs TSPT-processed NDVI time series data as an input, outputting multiple vegetation phenology products at a 232 meter resolution for 2000 to 2011, including NDVI magnitude and day of year products for seven key points along the growing season (peak of growing season and the minima, 20%, and 80% of the peak NDVI for both the left and right side of growing season), cumulative NDVI integral products for the most active part of the growing season and sequentially across the growing season at 8 day intervals, and maximum value NDVI products composited at 24 day intervals in which each product date has 8 days of overlap between the previous and following product dates. MODIS NDVI phenology products are also used to compute nationwide NRT forest change products refreshed every 8 days. These include percent change in forest NDVI products that compare the current NDVI from USGS eMODIS products to historical MODIS MOD13 NDVI. For each date, three forest change products are produced using three different maximum value NDVI baselines (from the previous year, three previous years, and all previous years). All change products are output with a rainbow color table in which forests with the most severe NDVI decreases are assigned hot colors (yellow to red) and forests with prominent NDVI increases are assigned cold colors (blue tones). All mentioned products have been integrated as data layers into ForWarn s geospatial data viewer known as the U.S. Forest Change Assessment Viewer (FCAV). The latter is used to view and assess the context of the mentioned forest change products with respect to ancillary data layers, such as land cover, elevation, hydrologic features, climatic data, storm data, aerial disturbance surveys, fire data, and land ownership. The FCAV also includes a temporal NDVI profiler for viewing phenological change in multi-year NDVI associated with known or suspected regionally apparent forest disturbances (e.g., from fire and insects). ForWarn forest change products have been used to detect, track, and assess several biotic and abiotic regional forest disturbance events across the country, including ephemeral and longer lasting damage from storms, drought, and insects. Such change products are most effective for viewing severe disturbances affecting multiple MODIS pixels. MODIS vegetation phenology products contribute vital current information on forest conditions to the ForWarn system and this role is expected to grow as these products are refined and derivative products are added.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Anticipating gelation and vitrification with medium amplitude parallel superposition (MAPS) rheology and artificial neural networks

Abstract Anticipating qualitative changes in the rheological response of complex fluids (e.g., a gelation or vitrification transition) is an important capability for processing operations that utilize such materials in real-world environments. One class of complex fluids that exhibits distinct rheological states are soft glassy materials such as colloidal gels and clay dispersions, which can be well characterized by the soft glassy rheology (SGR) model. We first solve the model equations for the time-dependent, weakly nonlinear response of the SGR model. With this analytical solution, we show that the weak nonlinearities measured via medium amplitude parallel superposition (MAPS) rheology can be used to anticipate the rheological aging transitions in the linear response of soft glassy materials. This is a rheological version of a technique called structural health monitoring used widely in civil and aerospace engineering. We design and train artificial neural networks (ANNs) that are capable of quickly inferring the parameters of the SGR model from the results of sequential MAPS experiments. The combination of these data-rich experiments and machine learning tools to provide a surrogate for computationally expensive viscoelastic constitutive equations allows for rapid experimental characterization of the rheological state of soft glassy materials. We apply this technique to an aging dispersion of Laponite ® clay particles approaching the gel point and demonstrate that a trained ANN can provide real-time detection of transitions in the nonlinear response well in advance of incipient changes in the linear viscoelastic response of the system.

Lennon, Kyle R. (ORCID:0000000212515461)↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Testing a Run-Time Assurance Framework Coupled with Integrated Risk Mitigation Capabilities for Autonomous Urban UAS Flights

The In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) Concept of Operations (ConOps) envisions new capabilities to monitor, assess, and mitigate flight safety risks. Systems will be tailored to mission type, vehicle/equipage type, operational environment, and safety risk tolerance. Within an IASMS framework, several capabilities may be implemented spanning three operational phases (pre-flight, in-flight, and post-flight/off-line); and consisting of lower level functions and information services which may reside onboard the aircraft, on third-party server(s), and/or on ground/operator station(s). Each capability will be designed to produce and disseminate safety-relevant information; perform detection, diagnosis, and prediction of unsafe situations; and/or execute mitigation actions when hazardous events warrant such changes. This paper focuses on recent testing of airborne capabilities that demonstrate inflight aspects of the overarching concept for autonomous unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) operations in urban environments. A flight test architecture is described that applies run-time assurance principles (e.g., executes independent of the unassured autopilot), real-time risk assessment, and a technique to execute contingencies if necessary either automatically or via pilot intervention. Several tests using small UAS were conducted to verify the assured in-flight risk mitigation capability. The paper draws significantly from a larger NASA technical report and recent prior conference papers, providing additional details. Data is analyzed for two representative flights to illustrate the performance for various sequential and simultaneous hazards used during testing. During each automated flight, several hazards are encountered at various points along the flight path. At each point, the hazard is mitigated by the system, with the vehicle then continuing to subsequent points. The paper concludes with lessons-learned regarding relevant aspects of the overarching IASMS concept and how it may be updated and further advanced in the future.

population activity↗

DOE OSTI2026

CHESS 2025: Waveform LiDAR data from NEON AOP surveys

This dataset provides Level 1 (L1) full-waveform light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data collected for the 2025 Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS). These data were acquired to enable characterization of vegetation structure and other three-dimensional features of the land surface, and to evaluate structural changes that may have occurred between a prior LiDAR acquisition in 2018 and the 2025 overflight. Waveform LiDAR data can provide more detailed information about objects on the ground than discrete point clouds typically do, and they are often used for granular target segmentation and characterization of subcanopy vegetation. The data were acquired over three study domains in the Upper Gunnison river basin: the upper East River watershed (CRBU); Almont Triangle and Taylor Canyon (ALMO); and Upper Taylor River watershed (UPTA) between 2025-06-13 and 2025-07-15. LiDAR data were acquired using the Optech Galaxy Prime Airborne LiDAR Terrain Mapper onboard the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) Airborne Observation Platform (AOP). These are the primary waveform LiDAR data delivered by NEON and are provided per flightline in compressed Pulsewaves format, an open-source binary file standard. A Pulsewaves object comprises a two files: a pulse (.pls) file, which stores the geographic origin, outgoing vector, and metadata for every laser pulse emitted by the scanner, and a wave file (.wvs), which stores the sequential amplitude samples of the outgoing pulse and the returning signals. The files are published here in their compressed forms (.plz, .wvz). All waveform data were processed following the theoretical workflow described in the NEON L0-to-L1 Waveform LiDAR Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document (Krause and Goulden 2022a); however, the Pulsewaves output format differs from a legacy format described in that document. Waveform amplitude samples are recorded at 1 nanosecond intervals. All coordinates are provided in meters. Horizontal coordinates are referenced in Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) zone 13N and the World Geodetic System (WGS) 1984 ensemble datum. Elevations are referenced to Geoid12A. Waveform data for the UPTA survey area were collected without incident and the published records are complete. However, both the ALMO and CRBU collections experienced issues that resulted in incomplete data for those areas. On collection day 2018-06-16 a hardware failure caused the waveform digitizer to lose data from the eastern edge of the ALMO site (Figure 22). The waveform data for flightlines 2–20 could not be extracted from the digitizer, and the data proved unrecoverable. As a result, a portion of the site does not have coverage with waveform data. Although no hardware failure was observed during collection over the CRBU area, final waveform files generated by vendor software contained only ~25% of the expected number of return pulses. After discovery, NEON initiated troubleshooting with the vendor. The root cause of the data ablation had not been identified at the time of publication. Additional data will be published in an update to this package if further recovery proves successful. CHESS Project Description: The Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) comprised a multi-week airborne remote sensing and field observation campaign in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, conducted in June and July of 2025. Airborne remote sensing was conducted by the National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP), concurrent with a field campaign run by the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory Watershed Function Science Focus Area (SFA), and NASA-JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) program. Between June 10 and July 18, 2025, the NEON AOP flight team collected high-resolution aerial imaging spectroscopy and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data over three domains: the Upper East River (CRBU), Almont Triangle (ALMO), and the Upper Taylor Basin (UPTA). In coordination with the flights, a field campaign acquired ground-truth observations, including observations of vegetation composition, foliar traits, forest demography, and subsurface properties in 18 core sampling areas within the domains. Additional surface water observations were taken at over 380 point locations. All CHESS campaign datasets can be found within the CHESS ESS-DIVE data portal: https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/chess. Funding Acknowledgement: Field and remote-sensing data acquisition was performed under a grant from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC24K1005). This work was also supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗

NASA NTRS2012

Current-State Constrained Filter Bank for Wald Testing of Spacecraft Conjunctions

We propose a filter bank consisting of an ordinary current-state extended Kalman filter, and two similar but constrained filters: one is constrained by a null hypothesis that the miss distance between two conjuncting spacecraft is inside their combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one is constrained by an alternative complementary hypothesis. The unconstrained filter is the basis of an initial screening for close approaches of interest. Once the initial screening detects a possibly risky conjunction, the unconstrained filter also governs measurement editing for all three filters, and predicts the time of closest approach. The constrained filters operate only when conjunctions of interest occur. The computed likelihoods of the innovations of the two constrained filters form a ratio for a Wald sequential probability ratio test. The Wald test guides risk mitigation maneuver decisions based on explicit false alarm and missed detection criteria. Since only current-state Kalman filtering is required to compute the innovations for the likelihood ratio, the present approach does not require the mapping of probability density forward to the time of closest approach. Instead, the hard-body constraint manifold is mapped to the filter update time by applying a sigma-point transformation to a projection function. Although many projectors are available, we choose one based on Lambert-style differential correction of the current-state velocity. We have tested our method using a scenario based on the Magnetospheric Multi-Scale mission, scheduled for launch in late 2014. This mission involves formation flight in highly elliptical orbits of four spinning spacecraft equipped with antennas extending 120 meters tip-to-tip. Eccentricities range from 0.82 to 0.91, and close approaches generally occur in the vicinity of perigee, where rapid changes in geometry may occur. Testing the method using two 12,000-case Monte Carlo simulations, we found the method achieved a missed detection rate of 0.1%, and a false alarm rate of 2%.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quality-Controlled Meteorological Data from the Flood Control District of Maricopa County (FCDMC) Network, Phoenix, Arizona (1987-2024)

This dataset contains 15- or 30-minute interval meteorological data from the Flood Control District of Maricopa County (FCDMC), Arizona, USA, covering eight key variables across multiple sensor stations between 1987 and 2024. Each variable is stored as a separate CSV file, containing time-series data that have undergone rigorous quality control (QC) procedures and, where appropriate, short-gap interpolation for consistency. The quality control (QC) pipeline consisted of four sequential tests: (1) a range test to ensure all values fall within physically realistic limits, (2) a step test to identify abrupt and implausible changes between consecutive records, (3) a proximity test that validates flagged values from step test using data from nearby stations and exceedance probability thresholds, and (4) a persistence test to detect and remove periods of unrealistically constant readings. These thresholds were calibrated to Arizona’s environmental conditions and sensor specifications. After QC, short gaps (≤2 hours) were linearly interpolated to ensure consistent temporal resolution, except for wind variables. Due to a major upgrade in FCDMC’s data transmission system, only ALERT-2 protocol data (2016–2024) for wind variables are included; earlier ALERT-1 data were excluded because of irregular sampling and high missing rates. This dataset supports regional climate and infrastructure resilience studies by providing standardized, high-resolution meteorological data for the greater Phoenix metropolitan area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2004

Airplane Ice Detector Based on a Microwave Transmission Line

An electronic instrument that could detect the potentially dangerous buildup of ice on an airplane wing is undergoing development. The instrument is based on a microwave transmission line configured as a capacitance probe: at selected spots, the transmission-line conductors are partly exposed to allow any ice and/or liquid water present at those spots to act as predominantly capacitive electrical loads on the transmission line. These loads change the input impedance of the transmission line, as measured at a suitable excitation frequency. Thus, it should be possible to infer the presence of ice and/or liquid water from measurements of the input impedance and/or electrical parameters related to the input impedance. The sensory transmission line is of the microstrip type and thus thin enough to be placed on an airplane wing without unduly disturbing airflow in flight. The sensory spots are small areas from which the upper layer of the microstrip has been removed to allow any liquid water or ice on the surface to reach the transmission line. The sensory spots are spaced at nominal open-circuit points, which are at intervals of a half wavelength (in the transmission line, not in air) at the excitation frequency. The excitation frequency used in the experiments has been 1 GHz, for which a half wavelength in the transmission line is .4 in. (.10 cm). The figure depicts a laboratory prototype of the instrument. The impedance-related quantities chosen for use in this version of the instrument are the magnitude and phase of the scattering parameter S11 as manifested in the in-phase (I ) and quadrature (Q) outputs of the phase detector. By careful layout of the transmission line (including the half-wavelength sensor spacing), one can ensure that the amplitude and phase of the input to the phase detector keep shifting in the same direction as ice forms on one or more of the sensor areas. Although only one transmission-line sensor strip is used in the laboratory version, in a practical application, it could be desirable to install multiple strips on different areas to detect localized icing. In that case, a multiplexer should be used to connect the various strips to the phase detector for sequential measurements. Experiments have been performed with freezing and thawing of water and of water/glycol mixtures. The experiments have shown that, whether or not glycol is present, it is possible to distinguish between liquid water and ice via the I and Q outputs; in particular, the equipment can be adjusted so that when water freezes, I decreases and Q increases. With respect to the operation of this instrument, the main effect of glycol is to increase the freezing or thawing time.

Ngo, Phong↗