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At least 19 records

The Dark Energy Bedrock All-sky Supernova Program: Cross Calibration, Simulations, and Cosmology Forecasts

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) have been essential for probing the nature of dark energy; however, most SN analyses rely on the same low-redshift sample, which may lead to shared systematics. In a companion paper, we introduce the Dark Energy Bedrock All-Sky Supernova (DEBASS) program, which has already collected more than 500 low-redshift SNe Ia on the Dark Energy Camera, and present an initial release of 77 SNe Ia within the Dark Energy Survey (DES) footprint observed between 2021 and 2024. Here, we examine the systematics, including photometric calibration and selection effects. We find agreement at the 10 mmag level among the tertiary standard stars of DEBASS, DES, and Pan-STARRS1. Our simulations reproduce the observed distributions of DEBASS SN light-curve properties, and we measure a bias-corrected Hubble residual scatter of 0.08 mag, which, while small, is found in 10% of our simulations. We compare the DEBASS SN distances to the Foundation sample and find consistency with a median residual offset of 0.016 ± 0.019 mag. Selection effects have negligible impacts on distances, but a different photometric calibration solution shifts the median residual −0.015 ± 0.019 mag, highlighting calibration sensitivity. Using conservative simulations, we forecast that replacing historical low-redshift samples with the full DEBASS sample will improve the statistical uncertainties on dark energy parameters w 0 and w a by 30% and 24%, respectively, enhance the dark energy Figure of Merit by up to 60%, and enable a measurement of fσ 8 at the 25% level.

Acevedo, Maria [Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United Sta

Multi-scale Simulation, Calibration, and Optimization of Calcium Carbonate Precipitation in Microbial Communities

Ensuring the efficient engineering of microbially induced calcium carbonate precipitation (MICP) is crucial for a variety of environmental and civil engineering applications, such as soil stabilization and carbon sequestration. Addressing this need, we present a comprehensive multi-scale workflow that begins with the isolation of calcium carbonate-producing microbes from soil samples, followed by metagenomic sequencing and metabolic reconstruction. We then characterize microbial growth phenotypes under diverse nutrient conditions, compare observed growth with metabolic model predictions, and apply the Consistent Reproduction of Phenotype (CROP) algorithm to refine these models. Furthermore, we analyze metabolite consumption and production, and develop a consumer-resource model that is calibrated using time-series measurements of growth rates, pH levels, and calcium carbonate precipitation. The primary benefit of our approach lies in its ability to predict and control MICP outcomes, facilitated by a Bayesian methodology that incorporates priors on initial conditions and parameters. This allows us to compute posteriors by integrating experimental data, and to solve a risk optimization problem under uncertainty to identify nutrient conditions that maximize calcium carbonate production. In contrast to non-Bayesian methods, which fail to quantify uncertainty accurately, our approach provides a more reliable pathway to optimizing nutrient conditions, enhancing the likelihood of achieving desired MICP outcomes. This positions our method as a superior alternative in the quest to improve MICP through engineered microbial consortia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Evaluation of the Energy, Hygrothermal, and Thermal Capacity Performance of Cross-Laminated Timber

Cross-laminated timber (CLT) construction is gaining momentum in the US because it offers multiple advantages over traditional construction methods. Benefits that have received the most attention focus on constructability, the environment, and protection (e.g., blast resistance), although CLT construction is likely to offer other benefits, as well. Still, these have not been studied at length because such evaluations are costly, requiring long-term assessments in an actual building and specialized technical knowledge. Among the possible benefits, CLT construction likely provides a higher-performing building envelope. Using CLT panels to enclose a building means fewer joints in the opaque envelope than what is required in traditional stick-framed construction. Fewer joints mean fewer locations where the air- and water-resistive barrier (WRB) could be compromised; thus, a CLT building enclosure may require less maintenance and have a longer lifespan than a traditionally built structure because of fewer air and water leaks. In addition, CLT’s thermal mass moderates indoor temperatures, allowing the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system to operate more efficiently during peak hours, reducing operational energy consumption throughout the lifetime of the CLT building (Salonvaara et al., 2022). Furthermore, more stable indoor temperatures can increase occupant comfort. The CLT’s thermal mass can also reduce energy costs by adjusting to utility time-of-use pricing without affecting occupant comfort. The ability of CLT buildings to bridge periods without HVAC operation prepares them for future grid interaction and provides a certain level of resilience against power outages. Researchers have attempted to quantify these benefits; however, their work is based on simplified simulations with numerous assumptions. To correctly understand the benefits, an actual building must be monitored. Therefore, information needs to be gathered on indoor and outdoor temperatures, HVAC energy consumption, thermostat setpoints, temperatures, and thermal transport in CLT components to comprehend how these parameters are affected by the CLT’s thermal mass. These data are needed to reduce the number of assumptions and calibrate simulation models to optimize HVAC controls to minimize overall energy consumption, reduce energy use and higher fees during peak demand, and maintain occupant comfort. Additionally, the calibrated simulation model allows the optimization exercise to be repeated in various US climates. Potential benefits can be tailored to buildings in various locations, and decisions can be made on where CLT construction could be most advantageous. Furthermore, monitoring and simulation results are needed to evaluate the durability of the CLT structures in different climates. This project’s researchers gathered information to help understand and quantify the benefits of CLT buildings concerning operational energy, moderated indoor temperatures, and comfort; the dynamic operation to provide grid services; and resilience in times of power outage. Through the corroboration of simulation models with real-world measurements, this study paves the way for extrapolating findings to other climatic zones and building typologies, thereby broadening the understanding of CLT’s multifaceted benefits and reinforcing its position as a material of choice in sustainable construction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Calibration and simulation of ionization signal and electronics noise in the ICARUS liquid argon time projection chamber

The ICARUS liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) neutrino detector has been taking physics data since 2022 as part of the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program. This paper details the equalization of the response to charge in the ICARUS time projection chamber (TPC), as well as data-driven tuning of the simulation of ionization charge signals and electronics noise. The equalization procedure removes non-uniformities in the ICARUS TPC response to charge in space and time. This work leverages the copious number of cosmic ray muons available to ICARUS at the surface. The ionization signal shape simulation applies a novel procedure that tunes the simulation to match what is measured in data. The end result of the equalization procedure and simulation tuning allows for a comparison of charge measurements in ICARUS between Monte Carlo simulation and data, showing good performance with minimal residual bias between the two.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND

Weak lensing combined with the kinetic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich effect: a study of baryonic feedback

ABSTRACT Extracting precise cosmology from weak lensing surveys requires modelling the non-linear matter power spectrum, which is suppressed at small scales due to baryonic feedback processes. However, hydrodynamical galaxy formation simulations make widely varying predictions for the amplitude and extent of this effect. We use measurements of Dark Energy Survey Year 3 weak lensing (WL) and Atacama Cosmology Telescope DR5 kinematic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (kSZ) to jointly constrain cosmological and astrophysical baryonic feedback parameters using a flexible analytical model, ‘baryonification’. First, using WL only, we compare the $S_8$ constraints using baryonification to a simulation-calibrated halo model, a simulation-based emulator model, and the approach of discarding WL measurements on small angular scales. We find that model flexibility can shift the value of $S_8$ and degrade the uncertainty. The kSZ provides additional constraints on the astrophysical parameters, with the joint WL + kSZ analysis constraining $S_8=0.823^{+0.019}_{-0.020}$. We measure the suppression of the non-linear matter power spectrum using WL + kSZ and constrain a mean feedback scenario that is more extreme than the predictions from most hydrodynamical simulations. We constrain the baryon fractions and the gas mass fractions and find them to be generally lower than inferred from X-ray observations and simulation predictions. We conclude that the WL + kSZ measurements provide a new and complementary benchmark for building a coherent picture of the impact of gas around galaxies across observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Reactive Transport Modeling of Hydrogen Production from Serpentinization of Olivine

Hydrogen production from serpentinization of ultramafic rocks represents a promising natural pathway for generating carbon-free energy, yet its kinetics and controlling factors remain incompletely understood. A key challenge in advancing serpentinization research lies in the heterogeneity of porosity and permeability in rocks, which leads to nonuniform fluid velocity fields, as well as uncertainties in estimating reactive surface area and identifying appropriate mineral reaction equilibria. Additional complexities arise from the role of dissolved SiO 2 , Fe 2+ /Fe 3+ partitioning, and the limited effect of pH variations within the strongly alkaline regime on hydrogen yields. These challenges hinder straightforward extrapolation from laboratory tests to practical applications of hydrogen production from natural rocks. Here, in this work, we address these questions using a simulation-based reactive transport modeling framework calibrated against controlled laboratory experiments reported elsewhere. The model couples geochemical kinetics, multiphase flow, and mineralogical feedbacks, enabling systematic evaluation of how surface area, dissolved silica concentration, Fe redox state, temperature, and pressure govern serpentinization and H2 generation. We find that surface area exerts the strongest control on reaction rates and hydrogen yields, while Fe 2+ /Fe 3+ ratios act as secondary modulators. Elevated dissolved silica concentrations suppress hydrogen production but accelerate serpentine precipitation, whereas increasing pH beyond 12 within the strongly alkaline regime produces only marginal gains. Finally, we demonstrate that integrating targeted experiments with calibrated simulations offers a powerful and efficient approach for predicting hydrogen yields and assessing parameter trade-offs in industrial-scale applications. This integration can substantially reduce the experimental burden while improving predictive capability, thereby enhancing both the mechanistic understanding and the practical feasibility of hydrogen production from serpentinization.

08 HYDROGEN

Tensorized Interior Radiative Heat Transfer for a Scalable and Calibrated Building Energy Simulator

Building energy simulation is a critical tool for developing and testing advanced control strategies, such as Reinforcement Learning (RL), to provide demand flexibility and affordable energy costs. The recently introduced Smart Buildings Control Suite (sbsim) provides a lightweight, scalable, and data-calibrated simulation environment based on a 2D finite-difference model. However, the initial model primarily focused on conductive and convective heat transfer, neglecting the significant impact of long-wave radiative heat exchange between interior surfaces. This paper presents a significant extension to the sbsim framework by incorporating a physically-grounded model for interior radiative heat transfer. Our primary contribution is the development and integration of a fully tensorized radiative heat transfer module, which preserves the computational efficiency and scalability of the original simulator. This was achieved by developing a pipeline for view factor calculation, including an algorithm to identify directly seeing surfaces within complex floor plans, and formulating the net radiation equations for efficient execution on modern hardware accelerators. We validate the numerical accuracy of our tensorized implementation by comparing its results against a traditional iterative approach, demonstrating identical outcomes. This enhancement increases the physical fidelity of sbsim, enabling more accurate training of RL agents for building energy optimization.

Ham, Sang woo

Assessing Dynamic Behaviors in Converter- Dominated Power Systems via RMS and EMT Simulations: A Study of Hawaii’s NELHA Microgrid

The transition from conventional power systems to converter-based microgrids has significantly advanced sustainability, clean energy integration, and operational reliability. However, this paradigm shift introduces operational challenges due to the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources and the non-linear characteristics of power electronic loads, inducing voltage fluctuations and harmonic distortions that complicate voltage and frequency regulation. Accurate dynamic modeling is hypothesized to be critical for capturing such effects, enabling reliable simulation and control strategy development. This study introduces an innovative dynamic modeling framework for a real-world converter-based microgrid, utilizing both root mean square (RMS) and electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation methods. The microgrid was modeled in DIgSILENT PowerFactory, with simulations calibrated against high-resolution field measurements from SEL-735 power quality meters. Results show that RMS simulations effectively characterize steady-state dynamics, while EMT simulations are essential for capturing high-frequency transients and non-linear effects from photovoltaic inverters and variable frequency drives (VFDs). This complementary approach provides a comprehensive understanding of microgrid behavior, providing critical insights for improving simulation accuracy, advancing protection schemes, and improving resilience in future low-inertia power networks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Combined tracer analysis for DESI 2024 BAO

This paper demonstrates how the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1 (DR1) and future baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) analyses can optimally combine overlapping tracers (galaxies of distinct types) in the same redshift range. We make a unified catalog of Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs) and Emission Line Galaxies (ELGs) in the redshift range 0.8 < z < 1.1 and investigate the impact on the BAO constraints. DESI DR1 contains ∼ 30% of the final DESI LRG sample and less than 25% of the final ELG sample, and the combination of LRGs and ELGs increases the number density and reduces the shot noise. We developed a pipeline to merge the overlapping tracers using galaxy bias as an approximately optimal weight and tested the pipeline on a suite of Abacus simulations, calibrated on the final version of the DESI Early Data Release. When applying our pipeline to the DESI DR1 catalog, we find an improvement in the BAO constraints of 11% for α iso and ∼ 7.0% for α AP consistent with our findings in mock catalogs. Our analysis was integrated into the DESI DR1 BAO analysis to produce theLRG+ELG result in the 0.8 < z < 1.1 redshift bin, which provided the most precise BAO measurement from DESI DR1 with a 0.86% constraint on the BAO distance scale and a 9.1σ detection of the isotropic BAO feature.

baryon acoustic oscillations

Automated Calibration of Parallel and Distributed Computing Simulators: A Case Study

Many parallel and distributed computing research results are obtained in simulation, using simulators that mimic real-world executions on some target system. Each such simulator is configured by picking values for parameters that define the behavior of the underlying simulation models it implements. The main concern for a simulator is accuracy: simulated behaviors should be as close as possible to those observed in the real-world target system. This requires that values for each of the simulator's parameters be carefully picked, or “calibrated,” based on ground-truth real-world executions. Examining the current state of the art shows that simulator calibration, at least in the field of parallel and distributed computing, is often undocumented (and thus perhaps often not performed) and, when documented, is described as a labor-intensive, manual process. In this work we evaluate the benefit of automating simulation calibration using simple algorithms. Specifically, we use a real-world case study from the field of High Energy Physics and compare automated calibration to calibration performed by a domain scientist. Our main finding is that automated calibration is on par with or significantly outperforms the calibration performed by the domain scientist. Furthermore, automated calibration makes it straightforward to operate desirable tradeoffs between simulation accuracy and simulation speed.

Mc donald, Jesse

Calibration verification for stochastic agent-based disease spread models

Accurate disease spread modeling is crucial for identifying the severity of outbreaks and planning effective mitigation efforts. To be reliable when applied to new outbreaks, model calibration techniques must be robust. However, current methods frequently forgo calibration verification (a stand-alone process evaluating the calibration procedure) and instead use overall model validation (a process comparing calibrated model results to data) to check calibration processes, which may conceal errors in calibration. In this work, we develop a stochastic agent-based disease spread model to act as a testing environment as we test two calibration methods using simulation-based calibration, which is a synthetic data calibration verification method. The first calibration method is a Bayesian inference approach using an empirically-constructed likelihood and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, while the second method is a likelihood-free approach using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Simulation-based calibration suggests that there are challenges with the empirical likelihood calculation used in the first calibration method in this context. These issues are alleviated in the ABC approach. Despite these challenges, we note that the first calibration method performs well in a synthetic data model validation test similar to those common in disease spread modeling literature. We conclude that stand-alone calibration verification using synthetic data may benefit epidemiological researchers in identifying model calibration challenges that may be difficult to identify with other commonly used model validation techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES

Constraints on f ( R ) gravity from thermal-Sunyaev-Zel’dovich-effect-selected SPT galaxy clusters and weak lensing mass calibration from DES and HST

We present constraints on the f ( R ) gravity model using a sample of 1005 galaxy clusters in the redshift range 0.25–1.78 that have been selected through the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect from South Pole Telescope data and subjected to optical and near-infrared confirmation with the multicomponent matched filter algorithm. We employ weak gravitational lensing mass calibration from the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 data for 688 clusters at z < 0.95 and from the Hubble Space Telescope for 39 clusters with 0.6 < z < 1.7 . Our cluster sample is a powerful probe of f ( R ) gravity, because this model predicts a scale-dependent enhancement in the growth of structure, which impacts the halo mass function (HMF) at cluster mass scales. To account for these modified gravity effects on the HMF, our analysis employs a semianalytical approach calibrated with numerical simulations. Combining calibrated cluster counts with primary cosmic microwave background temperature and polarization anisotropy measurements from the Planck 2018 release, we derive robust constraints on the f ( R ) parameter f R 0 . Our results, log 10 | f R 0 | < − 5.32 at the 95% credible level, are the tightest current constraints on f ( R ) gravity from cosmological scales. This upper limit rules out f ( R ) -like deviations from general relativity that result in more than a ∼ 20 % enhancement of the cluster population on mass scales M 200 c > 3 × 10 14 M ⊙ . Published by the American Physical Society 2025

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

DayCent MUVP model calibrated for the simulation of bioenergy crops grown on set-aside land in the US

DayCent MUVP version (Methanogenesis, UV litter degradation and Photosynthesis). DAYCENT is the daily time-step version of the CENTURY biogeochemical model (Parton et al., 1994). DAYCENT simulates fluxes of C and N among the atmosphere, vegetation, and soil (Del Grosso et al., 2001a; Parton et al., 1998). Key submodels include soil water content and temperature by layer, plant production and allocation of net primary production (NPP), decomposition of litter and soil organic matter, mineralization of nutrients, N gas emissions from nitrification and denitrification, and CH4 oxidation in non-saturated soils.

biogeochemical model

Determining Levels of Detail for Simulators of Parallel and Distributed Computing Systems via Automated Calibration

There are two sources of inaccuracy when simulating parallel and distributed computing systems: (i) a simulator implemented at an insufficient level of detail; and (ii) incorrectly calibrated simulation parameter values. Increasing the simulator’s level of detail can improve accuracy, but at the cost of higher space, time, and/or software complexity. Furthermore, evaluating the intrinsic accuracy of a simulator requires that its parameters be well-calibrated. Making decisions regarding the level of detail is thus challenging. We propose a methodology for instantiating the simulation calibration process and a framework for automating this process, which makes it possible to pick appropriate levels of detail for any simulator. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach via two case studies for two different domains.

McDonald, Jessie [University of Hawaii at Manoa, H

Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC) for Improved Computational Simulation Credibility

Accurate material characterization and model calibration are pivotal for simulations used for high-consequence engineering decisions. Current characterization and calibration methods (1) use simplified test specimen geometries and global data, (2) cannot guarantee that sufficient characterization data is collected for a specific model of interest, (3) provide only mean parameter values with no uncertainty quantification, and (4) are sequential, inflexible, and time-consuming. This work developed a new paradigm—coined Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC)—which drives forward the state-of-the-art in model calibration by bringing together recent advancements into one improved workflow. The ICC paradigm (1) employs tools to efficiently use full-field data to calibrate high-fidelity material models, (2) aligns the data needed with the data collected by adopting an optimal experimental design protocol, (3) provides uncertainty metrics on the calibrated model parameters, and (4) incorporates these advances into a quasi real-time feedback loop. The ICC framework was validated synthetically with both low-fidelity and high-fidelity simulations paired with several different elastoplastic material models, and was also demonstrated experimentally with an aluminum 6061 cruciform exemplar specimen. Results showed that the ICC framework—in which Bayesian optimal experimental design actively guided the experiment— resulted in calibrations with similar or better accuracy than predetermined experiments based on subject matter expertise. Moreover, the ICC framework produced a complete model calibration— with quantified uncertainties on model parameters—in 1 week, a 5 - 10× increase in efficiency over traditional approaches. Thus, the ICC paradigm improves both the calibration process and quality, by (1) improving efficiency, which increases agility of solid mechanics modeling and enables utilization of computational simulation (CompSim) at earlier stages of the design cycle and (2) providing quantified, and in some cases reduced, parameter uncertainties, which increases confidence in model predictions and supports credible decision making.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

DECAL MDN Resolution Calibration

The simulated pixelated calorimeter uses 0.1 mm × 0.1 mm silicon pixels (0.0001 cm²) silicon pixels as active layers — far finer than current concepts like HGCAL (~0.5 cm²) — improving energy resolution through much finer segmentation. While the standard resolution formalism fits three numbers to a handful of discrete test-beam energies, this work is a first try at a more data-efficient alternative: learning the full response shape continuously in energy with a mixture density network. This continuous, differentiable surrogate is a natural building block for fast simulation of extremely complex calorimeters.

Wang, Peter [U. Chicago (main)]

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Constraining hydrodynamic models of inertial confinement fusion implosions using capsule surrogate experiments

We conduct capsule surrogate experiments at the National Ignition Facility to calibrate radiation hydrodynamic simulations to infer hydrodynamic conditions that are not observable in indirect drive ignition implosions. We tune the simulations by applying laser power and cross beam energy transfer (CBET) saturation multipliers to match the observables from capsule surrogate experiments. Shock timing, velocity, and symmetry are measured in liquid D 2 filled Keyhole capsule surrogate experiments and implosion trajectory, stagnation time, and shape time history are measured in in-flight 2D backlit x-ray radiography experiments (“2DConA”) of D 2 gas filled capsule implosions. Calibrated simulations suggest that the N210808 ignition implosion (fusion target gain = 0.7) had a shell mass remaining at stagnation of less than the nominal %5 (3.8%) and resulted in less confinement. For N221204, the shell was made 5.75 μm thicker to trade implosion velocity for increased confinement and resulted in a target gain = 1.5 with a shell mass remaining of 5.7%. Furthermore, a single adjusted model can reproduce all shock timing data as changes are made to shell thickness (79–85 μm) and laser wavelength separation (1.8–4.0 Å). However, for the 2DConA implosions, a 5% variation in the peak power laser multipliers and a 30% variation in late-time CBET between experiments are needed to match the observed stagnation times, in-flight $P_2$ shape, and hot-spot $P_2$ shape. While progress is being made to improve the models in simulations using focused experiments, capsule surrogate experiments will continue to be needed to optimize future ignition designs.

Lasers