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At least 19 records

On the Dependence of Simulated Convection on Domain Size in CRMs

Abstract We present a heuristic model to explain the suppression of deep convection in convection‐resolving models (CRMs) with a small number of grid columns, such as those used in super‐parameterized or multi‐scale modeling framework (MMF) general circulation models (GCM) of the atmosphere. Domains with few grid columns require greater instability to sustain convection because they force a large convective fraction, driving strong compensating subsidence warming. Updraft dilution, which is stronger for reduced horizontal grid spacing, enhances this effect. Thus, suppression of deep convection in CRMs with few grid columns can be reduced by increasing grid spacing. Radiative‐convective equilibrium simulations using standalone CRM simulations with the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) and using GCM‐coupled CRM simulations with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)‐MMF confirm the heuristic model results.

CRM↗

Dynamic Subgrid Turbulence Modeling for Shallow Cumulus Convection Simulations beyond LES Resolutions

A scale-dependent dynamic Smagorinsky model is implemented in the Met Office/NERC Cloud (MONC) model using two averaging flavors, along Lagrangian pathlines and local moving averages. The dynamic approaches were compared against the conventional Smagorinsky–Lilly scheme in simulating the diurnal cycle of shallow cumulus convection. The simulations spanned from the LES to the near-gray-zone and gray-zone resolutions and revealed the adaptability of the dynamic model across the scales and different stability regimes. The dynamic model can produce a scale- and stability-dependent profile of the subfilter turbulence length scale across the chosen resolution range. At gray-zone resolutions the adaptive length scales can better represent the early precloud boundary layer leading to temperature and moisture profiles closer to the LES compared to the standard Smagorinsky. As a result, the initialization and general representation of the cloud field in the dynamic model is in good agreement with the LES. In contrast, the standard Smagorinsky produces a less well-mixed boundary layer, which fails to ventilate moisture from the boundary layer, resulting in the delayed spinup of the cloud layer. Moreover, strong downgradient diffusion controls the turbulent transport of scalars in the cloud layer. However, the dynamic approaches rely on the resolved field to account for nonlocal transports, leading to overenergetic structures when the boundary layer is fully developed and the Lagrangian model is used. Introducing the local averaging version of the model or adopting a new Lagrangian time scale provides stronger dissipation without significantly affecting model behavior.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dependencies of Simulated Convective Cell and System Growth Biases on Atmospheric Instability and Model Resolution

Abstract This study evaluates convective cell properties and their relationships with convective and stratiform rainfall within a season‐long convection‐permitting weather research and forecasting simulation over central Argentina using radar, satellite, and radiosonde measurements from the RELAMPAGO‐CACTI field campaign. The simulation slightly underestimates radar‐estimated rainfall over the ∼3.5‐month evaluation period but underestimates stratiform rainfall by 46% and overestimates convective rainfall by 43%. As convective available potential energy (CAPE) increases, the convective rainfall overestimation decreases, but the stratiform rainfall underestimation increases such that the contribution of convective to total rainfall remains constantly high biased by ∼26%. Overestimated convective rainfall arises from the simulation generating 2.6 times more precipitating convective cells (14,299) than observed by radar (5,662) despite similar observed and simulated cell growth processes, with relatively wide cells contributing mostly to excessive convective rainfall. Relatively shallow cells, typically reaching heights of 4–7 km, contribute most to the cell number bias. This cell number bias increases as CAPE decreases, potentially because cells and their updrafts become narrower and more under‐resolved as CAPE decreases. The gross overproduction of precipitating shallow cells leads to overly efficient precipitation and inadequate detrainment of ice aloft, thereby diminishing the formation of robust stratiform rainfall regions. Decreasing model horizontal grid spacing from 3 to 1 or 0.333 km for low (<300 J kg −1 ) and high CAPE (>1,000 J kg −1 ) cases results in minimal change to cell number, depth, and convective‐to‐stratiform partitioning biases. This suggests that improving prediction of these convective properties depends on factors beyond solely increasing model resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High-fidelity forced convection simulations of the University of Wisconsin–Madison air-cooled reactor cavity cooling system

Among the various types of advanced nuclear technologies that exist, high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) stand out for their co-generation capabilities and exceptional passive safety systems. HTGRs rely on a reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) to remove decay heat from the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) during the course of long-term transients. Several studies have focused on experimental and numerical modeling of the RCCS; however, the literature reveals a notable gap when it comes to high-fidelity simulations such as direct numerical simulations (DNS) or large eddy simulation (LES) models of the RCCS. An LES model was developed for forced convection inside the RCCS so as to obtain a high-fidelity representation of the RCCS at a scale never before attempted. Furthermore, the LES model was compared against three different Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) models (Realizable k − ϵ, k − ω SST, and Reynolds stress model [RSM]). This comparison verified the robustness and accuracy of the turbulence modeling approach of the RANS models for the RCCS. Finally, based on the comparison between the LES and the RANS models, the k − ω SST RANS model of the experimental facility was developed and compared against the available experimental data.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Summertime Near-Surface Temperature Biases Over the Central United States in Convection-Permitting Simulations

Convection-Permitting Model (CPM) simulations of the Central United States climate for the summer of 2011 are studied to understand the causes of warm biases in 2-m air temperature (T 2m ) and related underestimates of precipitation including that from mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Based on 10 CPM simulations and 9 coarser-resolution model simulations, we quantify contributions from evaporative fraction (EF) and radiation to the T 2m bias with both types of models overestimating T 2m largely because they underestimate EF. The performance of CPMs in capturing MCS characteristics (frequency, rainfall, propagation) varies. The pre-summer precipitation bias has large correlation with mean summertime T 2m bias but the relationship between summertime MCS mean rainfall bias and T 2m bias is non-monotonic. Analysis of lifting condensation level deficit and convective available potential energy suggests that models with T 2m warm biases and low EF have too dry and stable boundary layers, inhibiting the formation of clouds, precipitation and MCSs. Among the CPMs with differing model formulations (e.g., transpiration, infiltration, cloud macrophysics and microphysics), evidence suggests that altering the land-surface model is more effective than altering the atmospheric model in reducing T 2m biases. In conclusion, these results demonstrate that land-atmosphere interactions play a very important role in determining the summertime climate of the Central United States.

2-m air temperature↗

Evaluating and Improving Scale–Awareness of a Convective Parameterization Closure Using Cloud–Resolving Model Simulations of Convection

This study aims to evaluate a revised closure of the Zhang-McFarlane (ZM) scheme for deep convection and to further improve its scale awareness. Output from two cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations of both midlatitude organized (MC3E) and tropical unorganized (TWP-ICE) convection are used for the evaluation. By averaging the CRM output over different subdomain sizes from 64 km to 4 km, convection-associated fields are obtained to represent the fields at different horizontal resolutions of global climate models (GCMs). The convection parameterization closure is then tested using these fields. Results show that the cloud base mass flux M b determined from the closure has a relatively good relationship with CRM-simulated convection at coarse resolutions for both MC3E and TWP-ICE, but their correlation degrades at higher resolutions, especially when approaching the gray zone scale under 10 km. The fluctuation of CAPE consumption rate per unit cloud base mass flux for different convective events is found to be an important factor affecting the correlation. When averaged over the base domain, the cloud base mass flux determined by the closure is found to increase with decreasing subdomain size, implying that the closure is not scale-aware. To improve its scale-awareness, a modified closure is designed to alleviate the overprediction of convection at high GCM resolutions. Furthermore, results show that the modified closure has the scale-aware ability to suppress the overprediction problem at high GCM resolutions for both MC3E and TWP-ICE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Environmental Influences on Deep Convective Upscale Growth Rate in Central Argentina From a Convection‐Permitting Simulation

This study uses a convection‐permitting model simulation to describe the environmental conditions under which convective upscale growth occurs in central Argentina, particularly examining environmental parameters when deep convection initially forms that could differentiate the rate of initial upscale growth. Simulated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are separated into slow and rapid growth by the rate of spatial growth from convection initiation until reaching the MCS scale. A low‐level jet (LLJ) is found more frequently near the deep convection that experiences rapid growth to an MCS, but its presence alone is not predictive of rapid growth. Using spatially‐averaged parameters, we find that rapid growth to MCSs also occurs in environments that are significantly more thermodynamically favorable with greater low‐level moisture and instability. Fewer significant differences are found in the kinematic environment with only the 0–2 km vertical wind shear magnitude being significantly larger for rapid growth MCSs compared to slow growth MCSs, potentially related to LLJs often peaking near this height. When focusing only on MCSs with the slowest and fastest growth rates, elevated‐layer shear is significantly smaller for very rapid growth MCSs, suggesting elevated‐layer shear may help discriminate between the upper and lower bounds of growth rate. Finally, when upscale growth occurs near the Sierras de Córdoba (SDC) with a LLJ present, rapid growth is also supported by favorable wind shear orientation. However, this does not hold for upscale growth occurring away from the SDC, highlighting the importance of interpreting shear direction relative to the orientation of features initiating deep convection.

Sasaki, Clayton R. S. [Univ. of Washington, Seattl↗

Criticality in the Shallow-to-Deep Transition of Simulated Tropical Marine Convection

Idealized simulations of tropical, marine convection depict shallow, nonprecipitating cumuli located beneath the 0°C level transitioning into cumulonimbi that reach up to 12 km and higher. The timing of the transition was only weakly related to environmental stability, and 13 of the 15 simulations run with 5 different lapse-rate profiles had rain develop at nearly the same time after model start. The key quantity that apparently controlled deep convective formation was vertical acceleration inside cloudy updrafts between cloud base and the 0°C level. Below a critical value of updraft vertical acceleration, little rainfall occurred. Just as the domain-mean updraft acceleration reached the critical value, the first convection quickly grew to past 12 km altitude. Then, as acceleration increased above the critical value, rain rate averaged in the model domain increased quickly over about a 3-h-long period. The specific value of the critical updraft acceleration depended on how updrafts were defined and in what layer the acceleration was averaged; however, regardless of how criticality was defined, a robust relationship between domain-mean updraft vertical acceleration and rain rate occurred. Positive acceleration of updrafts below the 0°C level was present below 2.75 km and was largest in the 500 m above cloud base. However, the maximum difference between updraft and environmental temperatures occurred between 2 and 3 km. The domain-mean Archimedean buoyancy of updrafts relative to some reference state was a poor predictor for domain-mean rain rate. In conclusion, the exact value of the critical updraft acceleration likely depends on numerous other factors that were not investigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mesoscale Convective Systems in DYAMOND Global Convection‐Permitting Simulations

Abstract This study examines the deep convection populations and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) simulated in the DYAMOND (DYnamics of the atmospheric general circulation modeled on non‐hydrostatic domains) winter project. A storm tracking algorithm is applied to six DYAMOND simulations and a global high‐resolution satellite cloud and precipitation data set for comparison. The simulated frequencies of tropical deep convection and organized convective systems vary widely among models and regions, although robust MCSs are generally underestimated. The diurnal cycles of MCS initiation and mature stages are well simulated, but the amplitudes are exaggerated over land. Most models capture the observed MCS lifetime, cloud shield area, rainfall volume and movement speed. However, cloud‐top height and convective rainfall intensity are consistently overestimated, and stratiform rainfall area and amount are consistently underestimated. Possible causes for the model differences compared to observations and implications for future model developments are discussed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Growth of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Observations and a Seasonal Convection-Permitting Simulation over Argentina

Abstract A 6.5-month, convection-permitting simulation is conducted over Argentina covering the Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations and Clouds, Aerosols, and Complex Terrain Interactions (RELAMPAGO-CACTI) field campaign and is compared with observations to evaluate mesoscale convective system (MCS) growth prediction. Observed and simulated MCSs are consistently identified, tracked, and separated into growth, mature, and decay stages using top-of-the-atmosphere infrared brightness temperature and surface rainfall. Simulated MCS number, lifetime, seasonal and diurnal cycles, and various cloud-shield characteristics including growth rate are similar to those observed. However, the simulation produces smaller rainfall areas, greater proportions of heavy rainfall, and faster system propagations. Rainfall area is significantly underestimated for long-lived MCSs but not for shorter-lived MCSs, and rain rates are always overestimated. These differences result from a combination of model and satellite retrieval biases, in which simulated MCS rain rates are shifted from light to heavy, while satellite-retrieved rainfall is too frequent relative to rain gauge estimates. However, the simulation reproduces satellite-retrieved MCS cloud-shield evolution well, supporting its usage to examine environmental controls on MCS growth. MCS initiation locations are associated with removal of convective inhibition more than maximized low-level moisture convergence or instability. Rapid growth is associated with a stronger upper-level jet (ULJ) and a deeper northwestern Argentinean low that causes a stronger northerly low-level jet (LLJ), increasing heat and moisture fluxes, low-level vertical wind shear, baroclinicity, and instability. Sustained growth corresponds to similar LLJ, baroclinicity, and instability conditions but is less sensitive to the ULJ, large-scale vertical motion, or low-level shear. Growth sustenance controls MCS maximum extent more than growth rate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Large-Eddy Simulations of Convection Initiation over Heterogeneous, Low Terrain

Abstract Large-eddy simulations are conducted to investigate and physically interpret the impacts of heterogeneous, low terrain on deep-convection initiation (CI). The simulations are based on a case of shallow-to-deep convective transition over the Amazon River basin, and use idealized terrains with varying levels of ruggedness. The terrain is designed by specifying its power-spectral shape in wavenumber space, inverting to physical space assuming random phases for all wave modes, and scaling the terrain to have a peak height of 200 m. For the case in question, these modest terrain fields expedite CI by up to 2–3 h, largely due to the impacts of the terrain on the size of, and subcloud support for, incipient cumuli. Terrain-induced circulations enhance subcloud kinetic energy on the mesoscale, which is realized as wider and longer-lived subcloud circulations. When the updraft branches of these circulations breach the level of free convection, they initiate wider and more persistent cumuli that subsequently undergo less entrainment-induced cloud dilution and detrainment-induced mass loss. As a result, the clouds become more vigorous and penetrate deeper into the troposphere. Larger-scale terrains are more effective than smaller-scale terrains in promoting CI because they induce larger enhancements in both the width and the persistence of subcloud updrafts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multidimensional low-Mach number time-implicit hydrodynamic simulations of convective helium shell burning in a massive star

A realistic parametrization of convection and convective boundary mixing in conventional stellar evolution codes is still the subject of ongoing research. Furthermore, to improve the current situation, multidimensional hydrodynamic simulations are used to study convection in stellar interiors. Such simulations are numerically challenging, especially for flows at low Mach numbers which are typical for convection during early evolutionary stages. We explore the benefits of using a low-Mach hydrodynamic flux solver and demonstrate its usability for simulations in the astrophysical context. Simulations of convection for a realistic stellar profile are analyzed regarding the properties of convective boundary mixing. The time-implicit Seven-League Hydro (SLH) code was used to perform multidimensional simulations of convective helium shell burning based on a 25 M ⊙ star model. The results obtained with the low-Mach AUSM + -up solver were compared to results when using its non low-Mach variant AUSM B + -up. We applied well-balancing of the gravitational source term to maintain the initial hydrostatic background stratification. The computational grids have resolutions ranging from 180 × 90 2 to 810 × 540 2 cells and the nuclear energy release was boosted by factors of 3 × 10 3 , 1 × 10 4 , and 3 × 10 4 to study the dependence of the results on these parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluation of precipitation across the contiguous United States, Alaska, and Puerto Rico in multi-decadal convection-permitting simulations

Abstract This study is an early effort to generate a multi-decadal convection-permitting regional climate dataset that covers nearly the entire North American continent. We assessed a 20 year dynamically downscaled regional climate simulation at a 4 km spatial resolution with explicit convection across the contiguous United States (CONUS), Alaska, and Puerto Rico. Specifically, we evaluated the model’s performance in representing mean, 95th percentile, and extreme precipitation across regions. Our findings indicate that when compared with ERA5 reanalysis, the forcing data, convection-permitting simulation improves representations of seasonal, 95th percentile, and extreme precipitation over a large portion of the CONUS, Alaska, and Puerto Rico, particularly in areas where precipitation is heaviest. The simulation adds value over its forcing data (ERA5) in up to 53% of all grid cells in the CONUS, 68.8% in Alaska, and 84.0% in Puerto Rico. It is important to note that, however, despite improvements, model errors in Puerto Rico remain large. Similar improvements are observed in extreme indices, including consecutive dry days, maximum 5 days precipitation, and extreme precipitation. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of mean hourly precipitation suggests that representations of convective processes—including onset, dissipation, suppression, downstream propagation, and local circulation—improved overall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influences of the South American Low-Level Jet on the Convective Environment in Central Argentina Using a Convection-Permitting Simulation

This study documents the spatial and temporal distribution of the South American low-level jet (SALLJ) and quantifies its impact on the convective environment using a 6.5-month convection-permitting simulation during the Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations and Clouds, Aerosols, and Complex Terrain Interactions (RELAMPAGO-CACTI) campaigns. Overall, the simulation reproduces the observed SALLJ characteristics in central Argentina near the Sierras de Córdoba (SDC), a focal point for terrain-focused upscale growth. SALLJs most frequently occur in the summer with maxima to the northwest and east of the SDC and minima over the higher terrain. The shallower SALLJs (<1750 m) have a strong overnight skew, while the elevated jets are more equally spread throughout the day. SALLJ periods often have higher amounts of low-level moisture and instability compared to non-SALLJ periods, with these impacts increasing over time when the SALLJ is present and decreasing afterward. The SALLJ may enhance low-level wind shear magnitudes (particularly when accounting for the jet height); however, enhancement is somewhat limited due to the presence of speed shear in most situations. SALLJ periods are associated with low-level directional shear favorable for organized convection and an orientation of cloud-layer wind shear parallel to the terrain, which could favor upscale growth. A case study is shown in which the SALLJ influenced both the magnitude and direction of wind shear concurrent with convective upscale growth near the SDC. This study highlights the complex relationship between the SALLJ and its impacts during periods of widespread convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

RCEMIP‐ACI: Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions in a Multimodel Ensemble of Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium Simulations

Aerosol‐cloud interactions are a persistent source of uncertainty in climate research. This study presents findings from a model intercomparison project examining the impact of aerosols on clouds and climate in convection‐permitting radiative‐convective equilibrium (RCE) simulations. Specifically, 11 different modeling teams conducted RCE simulations under varying aerosol concentrations, domain configurations, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We analyze the response of domain‐mean cloud and radiative properties to imposed aerosol concentrations across different SSTs. Additionally, we explore the potential impact of aerosols on convective aggregation and large‐scale circulation in large‐domain simulations. The results reveal that the cloud and radiative responses to aerosols vary substantially across models. However, a common trend across models, SSTs, and domain configurations is that increased aerosol loading tends to suppress warm rain formation, enhance cloud water content in the mid‐troposphere, and consequently increase mid‐tropospheric humidity and upper‐tropospheric temperature, thereby impacting static stability. The warming of the upper troposphere can be attributed to reduced lateral entrainment effects due to the higher environmental humidity in the mid‐troposphere. However, models do not agree on aerosol impacts on convective updraft velocity based on the preliminary examination of high‐percentiles of vertical velocity at a single mid‐troposheric layer (500 hPa). In large‐domain simulations, where convection tends to self‐organize, aerosol loading does not consistently influence self‐organization but tends to reduce the intensity of large‐scale circulation forming between convective clusters and dry regions. This reduction in circulation intensity can be explained by the increase in static stability due to the upper tropospheric warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The microphysics of the warm-rain and ice crystal processes of precipitation in simulated continental convective storms

Precipitation in clouds can form by either warm-rain or ice crystal processes, referred to as warm and cold formation pathways, respectively. Here, we investigate the warm and cold pathway contributions to surface precipitation in simulated continental convective storms. We analyze three contrasting convective storms that are cold-based, slightly warm-based and very warm-based. We apply tracer-tagging techniques in our aerosol-cloud model to determine simulated microphysical pathways that lead to precipitation. We find cold components of graupel and rain mass were higher than warm components in cold- and slightly warm-based clouds. By contrast, in very warm-based clouds nearly 80% of surface precipitation was formed via warm-rain processes. Lowering of cloud base altitude to levels about 10–20 K warmer switched surface precipitation to being mostly warm, due to enhanced moisture content in the planetary boundary layer and larger cloud droplets aloft intensifying raindrop freezing. Our simulations indicate that warm and cold processes co-exist in any storm and the balance between them is determined by cloud base temperature and solute aerosol conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗