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At least 19 records

Analyzing count data with measurement error

In this article, we analyze observed count data such as the number of defects in a steel product where the observed counts are the true counts measured with errors. We account for the measurement error by using a measurement error model based on a latent lognormal (LLN) distribution. We consider making inference about a single population (e.g., from samples of a production lot) and a regression model (e.g., from runs of a designed experiment), where the measurement system properties are known, that is, the parameters of the LLN distribution are known. Then, we consider simultaneous inference for the single population and regression model as well as the measurement system. We demonstrate the proposed methodology with both simulated and real observed counts.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Dark Matter Content of Milky Way Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxies: Draco, Sextans, and Ursa Minor

The Milky Way Survey of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) has so far observed three classical dwarf spheroidal galaxies (dSphs): Draco, Sextans, and Ursa Minor. Based on the observed line-of-sight velocities and metallicities of their member stars, we apply the axisymmetric Jeans Anisotropic Multi-Gaussian Expansion modeling (JAM) approach to recover their inner dark matter distributions. In particular, both the traditional single-population Jeans model and the multiple population chemodynamical model are adopted. With the chemodynamical model, we divide member stars of each dSph into metal-rich and metal-poor populations. The metal-rich populations are more centrally concentrated and dynamically colder, featuring lower velocity dispersion profiles than the metal-poor populations. We find a diversity of the inner density slopes γ of dark matter halos, with the best constraints by the single-population or chemodynamical models consistent with each other. The inner density slopes are $0.7{1}_{-0.35}^{+0.34}$, $0.2{6}_{-0.12}^{+0.22}$, and $0.3{3}_{-0.16}^{+0.20}$ for Draco, Sextans, and Ursa Minor, respectively. We also present the measured astrophysical J and D factors of the three dSphs. Our results indicate that the study of the dark matter content of dSphs through stellar kinematics is still subject to uncertainties behind both the methodology and the observed data, through comparisons with previous measurements and datasets.

Dark matter↗

Near-Relativistic Solar Electrons and Type III Radio Bursts

Recently it has been found that the inferred injection times of greater than 25 keV electrons are up to 30 minutes later than the start times of the associated type III radio bursts at the Sun. Thus it has been suggested that the electrons that produce type III bursts do not belong to the same population as those observed above 25 keV. This paper examines the characteristics and circumstances of 79 solar electron beam events measured on the ACE spacecraft. Particular attention is paid to the very low frequency emissions of the associated radio bursts and the ambient conditions at the arrival times of the electrons at the spacecraft. It is found that the inferred greater than 25 keV electron injection delays are correlated with the times required for the associated radio bursts to drift to the lowest frequencies. This suggests that the electrons responsible for the radio emission and those observed above 25 keV are part of a single population, and that the electrons both above and below 25 keV are delayed in the interplanetary medium. Further evidence for a single population is the general correspondence between electron and local radio intensities and temporal profiles. It is found that the delays increase with the ambient solar wind density consistent with the propagation times of the electrons being determined by the characteristics of the interplanetary medium. However it is known that particle arrival times at 1 AU are a linear function of inverse particle speed. Conventionally such a relationship is taken to indicate scatter-free propagation when inferred path lengths lie close to 1.2 AU, as they do for the electron events studied here. These conflicting interpretations require further investigation.

Cane, H. V.↗

Ion Velocity Characterization of the 12.5-kW Advanced Electric Propulsion System Engineering Hall Thruster

During development testing of the 12.5-kW Advanced Electric Propulsion System engineering unit Hall thruster, which is magnetically shielded, a laser-induced fluorescence test was performed. During this test, a third medium-energy ion population was found near the inner front pole cover in addition to two low-energy counter-streaming ion populations that were found in previous testing. This newly found ion population matched in characteristics with the single population found near the outer front pole cover. The measured characteristics of the medium-energy ions matched the behavior expected of them if they were energized by a plasma wave with magnetized electrons, such as a lower hybrid wave. Comparison of the data from this test to prior tests showed that this engineering thruster had very similar ion characteristics as the precursor laboratory thruster. The acceleration zone was found to move upstream with increasing background pressure, decreasing anode flowrate, and increasing magnetic field strength. For the low-energy ions, the energy of the ions arriving at the inner pole did not vary noticeably with background pressure but did increase with increasing magnetic field strength and decreasing anode flow rate. For the medium-energy ions, the energy of the ions increased with decreasing background pressure, decreasing anode flow rate, and increasing magnetic field strength. Testing at different cathode flow fraction showed that the energy of the low-energy ions from the cathode decreased with increasing cathode flow.

Electric propulsion↗

Bimodal abundances in the energetic particles of solar and interplanetary origin

This letter reports the first results from an examination of the daily-averaged abundances of the elements from H through Fe as well as electrons and isotopes of He in energetic particles observed in interplanetary space by the ISEE 3 spacecraft over an 8.5 yr period. The abundances of heavy elements such as Fe/O show, for the first time, clear evidence of the presence of two distinct populations of particles. Earlier observations could be interpreted as extreme variations within a single population. The population with enhanced Fe/O shows correlated enhancements in He-3/He-4, p/e, and He/H. This population is consistent with material that has been processed to high temperatures in the impulsively heated regions of solar flares. The second population, with more normal abundances, is probably accelerated from ambient material by coronal and interplanetary shocks.

Reames, Donald V.↗

New insights on the nebular emission, ionizing radiation, and low metallicity of Green Peas from advanced modelling

ABSTRACT Low-metallicity, compact starburst galaxies referred to as Green Peas (GPs) provide a unique window to study galactic evolution across cosmic epochs. In this work, we present new deep optical spectra for three GPs from OSIRIS at the 10-m Gran Telescopio Canarias, which are studied using a state-of-the-art methodology. A stellar population synthesis is conducted with 1098 spectral templates. The methodology succeeds at characterizing stellar populations from 0.5 Myr to 10 Gyr. The light distribution shows a large red excess from a single population with ${log}\left({age}\right) \gt 8.5\, \mathrm{yr}$ in the GP sample analysed. This points towards an incomplete characterization of the gas luminosity, whose continuum already accounts between 7.4 and $27.6{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ in the galaxy sample. The emission spectra are fitted with the largest Bayesian chemical model consisting of an electron temperature, an electron density, the logarithmic extinction coefficient and eleven ionic species under the direct method paradigm. Additionally, building on previous work, we propose a neural networks sampler to constrain the effective temperature and ionization parameter of each source from photoionization model grids. Finally, we combine both methodologies into a 16-dimensional model, which for the first time, simultaneously explores the direct method and photoionization parameter spaces. Both techniques consistently indicate a low-metallicity gas, $7.76\lt 12+{\rm log}\left(O/H \right)\lt 8.04$, ionized by strong radiation fields, in agreement with previous works.

Fernández, V. (ORCID:0000000305315450)↗

Possible deficiency of large Martian craters and relative cratering of the terrestrial planets

Mars appears to be deficient in large craters relative to Mercury and the Moon. This relative deficiency conflicts with the interpretation of a common population of impactors within the early inner solar system and suggest either of two possibilities. If the apparent deficiency of martian craters is real then the population of impactors at Mars differed significantly from that closer to the Sun. If the apparent deficiency is not real then the complete crater inventory of Mars should be similar to those of Mercury and the Moon, supporting the interpretation of a single population of impactors. These alternate possibilities can be tested by comparing revised inventories that include partly buried or eroded craters to an estimate of Mars' possible relative crater deficiency.

Schultz, Richard A.↗

Inferring demographic and selective histories from population genomic data using a 2-step approach in species with coding-sparse genomes: an application to human data

Abstract The demographic history of a population, and the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) of newly arising mutations in functional genomic regions, are fundamental factors dictating both genetic variation and evolutionary trajectories. Although both demographic and DFE inference has been performed extensively in humans, these approaches have generally either been limited to simple demographic models involving a single population, or, where a complex population history has been inferred, without accounting for the potentially confounding effects of selection at linked sites. Taking advantage of the coding-sparse nature of the genome, we propose a 2-step approach in which coalescent simulations are first used to infer a complex multi-population demographic model, utilizing large non-functional regions that are likely free from the effects of background selection. We then use forward-in-time simulations to perform DFE inference in functional regions, conditional on the complex demography inferred and utilizing expected background selection effects in the estimation procedure. Throughout, recombination and mutation rate maps were used to account for the underlying empirical rate heterogeneity across the human genome. Importantly, within this framework it is possible to utilize and fit multiple aspects of the data, and this inference scheme represents a generalized approach for such large-scale inference in species with coding-sparse genomes.

Soni, Vivak (ORCID:0000000294969562)↗

A Long-Term Space Astrophysics Research Program: The Evolution of the Quasar Continuum

Four papers have been written. One reports on the major study funded by this grant: a pan-chromatic study of the quasar continuum at redshift 3. Two others make use of the quasar continuum shapes to find the minimum total accretion luminosity of the Universe, and hence the efficiency and spin of supermassive black holes; the second shows that the reemission of absorbed quasar radiation alleviates a major problem with galaxy formation and the FIR background. The last paper recognizes the role quasars may play in the initial formation of dust in the early Universe. The major study of a sample of z=3 and its comparison with a sample of z=0.l quasars across the whole X-ray to radio spectrum was completed and accepted for publication in ApJ Supplements. This study comprises the thesis work of Olga Kuhn. The two samples are matched in evolved luminosity, and so should be sampling the same black hole population at different z, and in different accretion states. Despite this no strong differences were found between the samples, except in the 'small bump' region of the optical/UV. This region is dominated by FeII emission, and may indicate abundance evolution in quasars. The lack of overall spectral changes argues strongly against a single population of quasars fading over cosmic time, and for a multiple generation, or multiple outburst model for quasars. A study of the total luminosity absorbed from quasars and re-emitted in the infrared produced two results (reported in two papers): The minimum intrinsic luminosity/Gpc(3) from AGN compared with the measured mass density in supermassive black holes [Gpc(-3)] requires a conversion efficiency of accreted mass into luminosity of greater than 15%. Non-rotating black holes cannot exceed 5% efficiency, while rapidly rotating black holes can reach 47%. Hence our result requires that most supermassive black holes must be rapidly rotating. The second result comes from considering the contribution that the re-radiated quasar radiation makes to the far infrared background (FIRB). The effective temperature of the re radiation is tightly constrained, but the detailed shape (e.g. line emission, range of temperature) is only of second order importance. At least 15perhaps 20-25% of the FIR background must come from AGN. This contribution significantly relieves problems in galaxy evolution that come from trying to use only starlight to make the FIRB. The third paper addresses the origin of the dust obscuration that is so widespread in AGN. The standard assumption is that the dust comes from the normal star-formation processes in galaxies and is drawn close to the nucleus along with the gas that powers the accretion. In complete contrast, using a wind outflow model for the broad emission line (BEL) region (Elvis 2000) as a basis, we show that BEL clouds will expand, cool and form dust as they flow outward, in strict analogy to the stellar winds of red supergiants.

Elvis, M.↗

Quantifying the effects of mixing state on aerosol optical properties

Abstract. Calculations of the aerosol direct effect on climate rely on simulated aerosol fields. The model representation of aerosol mixing state potentially introduces large uncertainties into these calculations, since the simulated aerosol optical properties are sensitive to mixing state. In this study, we systematically quantified the impact of aerosol mixing state on aerosol optical properties using an ensemble of 1800 aerosol populations from particle-resolved simulations as a basis for Mie calculations for optical properties. Assuming the aerosol to be internally mixed within prescribed size bins caused overestimations of aerosol absorptivity and underestimations of aerosol scattering. Together, these led to errors in the populations' single scattering albedo of up to −22.3 % with a median of −0.9 %. The mixing state metric χ proved useful in relating errors in the volume absorption coefficient, the volume scattering coefficient and the single scattering albedo to the degree of internally mixing of the aerosol, with larger errors being associated with more external mixtures. At the same time, a range of errors existed for any given value of χ. We attributed this range to the extent to which the internal mixture assumption distorted the particles' black carbon content and the refractive index of the particle coatings. Both can vary for populations with the same value of χ. These results are further evidence of the important yet complicated role of mixing state in calculating aerosol optical properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stability of multi-population traffic flows

Traffic waves, known also as stop-and-go waves or phantom jams, appear naturally as traffic instabilities, also in confined environments as a ring-road. A multi-population traffic is studied on a ring-road, comprised of drivers with stable and unstable behavior. There exists a critical penetration rate of stable vehicles above which the system is stable, and under which the system is unstable. In the latter case, stop-and-go waves appear, provided enough cars are on the road. The critical penetration rate is explicitly computable, and, in reasonable situations, a small minority of aggressive drivers is enough to destabilize an otherwise very stable flow. This is a source of instability that a single population model would not be able to explain. Also, the multi-population system can be stable below the critical penetration rate if the number of cars is sufficiently small. Instability emerges as the number of cars increases, even if the traffic density remains the same (i.e., number of cars and road size increase similarly). This shows that small experiments could lead to deducing imprecise stability conditions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multiple emission components in the Cygnus cocoon detected from Fermi -LAT observations

Star-forming regions may play an important role in the life cycle of Galactic cosmic rays (CRs), notably as home to specific acceleration mechanisms and transport conditions. Gamma-ray observations of Cygnus X have revealed the presence of an excess of hard-spectrum gamma-ray emission, possibly related to a cocoon of freshly accelerated particles. We seek an improved description of the gamma-ray emission from the cocoon using ~13 yr of observations with the Fermi-Large Area Telescope (LAT) and use it to further constrain the processes and objects responsible for the young CR population. We developed an emission model for a large region of interest, including a description of interstellar emission from the background population of CRs and recent models for other gamma-ray sources in the field. Thus, we performed an improved spectro-morphological characterisation of the residual emission including the cocoon. The best-fit model for the cocoon includes two main emission components: an extended component FCES G78.74+1.56, described by a 2D Gaussian of extension r 68 = 4.4° ± 0.1° -0.1° +0.1° and a smooth broken power law spectrum with spectral indices 1.67 ± 0.05 -0.01 +0.02 and 2.12 ± 0.02 -0.01 +0.00 below and above 3.0 ± 0.6 -0.2 +0.0 GeV, respectively; and a central component FCES G80.00+0.50, traced by the distribution of ionised gas within the borders of the photo-dissociation regions and with a power law spectrum of index 2.19 ± 0.03 -0.01 +0.00 that is significantly different from the spectrum of FCES G78.74+1.56. An additional extended emission component FCES G78.83+3.57, located on the edge of the central cavities in Cygnus X and with a spectrum compatible with that of FCES G80.00+0.50, is likely related to the cocoon. For the two brightest components FCES G80.00+0.50 and FCES G78.74+1.56, spectra and radial-azimuthal profiles of the emission can be accounted for in a diffusion-loss framework involving one single population of non-thermal particles with a flat injection spectrum. Particles span the full extent of FCES G78.74+1.56 as a result of diffusion from a central source, and give rise to source FCES G80.00+0.50 by interacting with ionised gas in the innermost region. For this simple diffusion-loss model, viable setups can be very different in terms of energetics, transport conditions, and timescales involved, and both hadronic and leptonic scenarios are possible. The solutions range from long-lasting particle acceleration, possibly in prominent star clusters such as Cyg OB2 and NGC 6910, to a more recent and short-lived release of particles within the last 10–100 kyr, likely from a supernova remnant. The observables extracted from our analysis can be used to perform detailed comparisons with advanced models of particle acceleration and transport in star-forming regions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Gas phase protonated nicotine is a mixture of pyridine- and pyrrolidine-protonated conformers: implications for its native structure in the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor

The infrared (IR) spectra of gas phase protonated nicotine has been measured in the never-before probed N–H “fingerprint region” (3200–3500 cm -1 ). The protonated molecules generated by an electrospray source are thermalized in the first ion trap with water vapor and He gas at a pre-determined temperature prior to being probed by IR spectroscopy in the second ion trap at 4 K. The IR spectra exhibit two N–H stretching bands which are assigned to the pyridine and pyrrolidine protomers with the aid of high-level electronic structure calculations. This finding is in sharp contrast to previous spectroscopic studies that suggested a single population of the pyridine protomer. The relative populations of the two protomers vary by changing the temperature of the thermalizing trap from 180-300 K. The relative conformer populations at 240 K and 300 K are well reproduced by the theoretical calculations, unequivocally determining that gas phase nicotine is a 3 : 2 mixture of both pyridine and pyrrolidine protomers at room temperature. The thermalizing anhydrous vapor does not result in any population change. It rather demonstrates the catalytic role of water in achieving equilibrium between the two protomers. The combination of IR spectroscopy and electronic structure calculations establish the small energy difference between the pyridine and pyrrolidine protomers in nicotine. Finally, one of the gas phase nicotine pyrrolidine protomers has the closest conformational resemblance among all low-lying energy isomers with the X-ray structure of nicotine in the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor (nAChR).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A strong blend in the morning: studying the circumgalactic medium before cosmic noon with strong, blended Ly α forest systems

ABSTRACT We study of the properties of a new class of circumgalactic medium absorbers identified in the Ly α forest: ‘Strong, Blended Lyman-α’ (or SBLA) absorption systems. We study SBLAs at 2.4 < z < 3.1 in SDSS-IV/eBOSS spectra by their strong extended Ly α absorption complexes covering 138 $\, \, {\rm km}\, {\rm s}^{-1}$ with an integrated $\log (N_{\rm H\, {\small I}}/\mathrm{cm}^{-2}) =16.04$$\substack{+0.05 \\ -0.06}$ and Doppler parameter b = 18.1$\substack{+0.7 \\ -0.4}$$\, \, {\rm km}\, {\rm s}^{-1}$. Clustering with the Ly α forest provides a large-scale structure bias of b = 2.34 ± 0.06 and halo mass estimate of $M_h \approx 10^{12}\, h^{-1}\, {\rm M_{\odot }}$ for our SBLA sample. We measure the ensemble mean column densities of 22 metal features in the SBLA composite spectrum and find that no single-population multiphase model for them is viable. We therefore explore the underlying SBLA population by forward modelling the SBLA absorption distribution. Based on covariance measurements and favoured populations we find that ≈25 per cent of our SBLAs have stronger metals. Using silicon only we find that our strong metal SBLAs trace gas with a log (nH/cm−3) > −2.40 for T = 103.5 K and show gas clumping on <210 parsec scales. We fit multiphase models to this strong subpopulation and find a low ionization phase with nH = 1 cm−3, T = 103.5 K, and [X/H] = 0.8, an intermediate ionization phase with log (nH/cm−3) = −3.05, T = 103.5 K and [X/H] = −0.8, and a poorly constrained higher ionization phase. We find that the low ionization phase favours cold, dense super-solar metallicity gas with a clumping scale of just 0.009 parsecs.

Morrison, Sean (ORCID:0000000267702627)↗

Preliminary model constraints on the spatial and luminosity distributions of GRBs observed by BATSE

The GRB angular/intensity distributions observed by BATSE greatly constrain models of the spatial and luminosity source distributions. Single populations of Galactic Disk and Galactic Halo sources appear to be untenable, and only a limited subset of models made up of sources in a symmetric Galactic Corona satisfy the observations. Comments are made on other classes of models.

Hakkila, Jon↗

Comptonization of diffuse ambient radiation by a relativistic jet: The source of gamma rays from blazars?

Recent Energy Gamma Ray Experiment Telescope (EGRET) observations of blazars have revealed strong, variable gamma-ray fluxes with no signatures of gamma-ray absorption by pair production. This radiation probably originates from the inner parts of relativistic jets which are aimed nearly toward us. On sub-parsec scales, the jet will be pervaded by radiation from the broad-line region, as well as by photons from the central continuum source (some of which will be scattered by thermal plasma). In a frame moving with the relativistic outflow, the energy of this ambient radiation would be enhanced. This radiation would be Comptonized by both cold and relativistic electrons in the jet, yielding (in the observer's frame) a collimated beam of X-rays and gamma rays. On the assumption that this process dominates self-Comptonization of synchrotron radiation, we develop a self-consistent model for variable gamma-ray emission, involving a single population of relativistic electrons accelerated by a disturbance in the jet. The spectral break between the X-ray and gamma-ray band, observed in 3C 279 and deduced for other blazars, results from inefficient radiative cooling of lower energy electrons. The existence of such a break strongly favors a model involving Comptonization of an external radiation field over a synchrotron self-Compton model. We derive constraints on such model parameters as the location and speed of the source, its dimensions and internal physical parameters, the maximum photon energies produced in the source, and the density and distribution of ambient radiation. Finally, we discuss how observations might discriminate between our model and alternative ones invoking Comptonization of ambient radiation.

Sikora, Marek↗

Constraints on galactic distributions of gamma-ray burst sources from BATSE observations

The paradigm that gamma-ray bursts originate from Galactic sources is studied in detail using the angular and intensity distributions observed by the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) on NASA's Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO). Monte Carlo models of gamma-ray burst spatial distributions and luminosity functions are used to simulate bursts, which are then folded through mathematical models of BATSE selection effects. The observed and computed angular intensity distributions are analyzed using modifications of standard statistical homogeneity and isotropy studies. Analysis of the BATSE angular and intensity distributions greatly constrains the origins and luminosities of burst sources. In particular, it appears that no single population of sources confined to a Galactic disk, halo, or localized spiral arm satisfactorily explains BATSE observations and that effects of the burst luminosity function are secondary when considering such models. One family of models that still satisfies BATSE observations comprises sources located in an extended spherical Galactic corona. Coronal models are limited to small ranges of burst luminosity and core radius, and the allowed parameter space for such models shrinks with each new burst BATSE observes. Multiple-population models of bursts are found to work only if (1) the primary population accounts for the general isotropy and inhomogeneity seen in the BATSE observations and (2) secondary populations either have characteristics similar to the primary population or contain numbers that are small relative to the primary population.

Hakkila, Jon↗