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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Automated construction of clear-sky dictionary from all-sky imager data

All-sky imagers (ASIs) have significant promise as scalable sensors for short-term solar irradiance forecasting. Many of the current computational techniques that use ASIs for this purpose rely on collections of clear-sky images indexed by time of day, solar angle, or both, called clear-sky dictionaries (CSDs). These CSDs act as baselines against which images can be compared to locate and classify clouds within the image frame. CSDs are often compiled by hand, where individuals visually inspect collections of images one at a time to find clear-sky images. This process is not scalable, and it is prone to error. This paper proposes an automated, nonparametric alternative that uses the principles of digital image processing to find clear-sky images within a set of images taken over several days. We use ground-truth measurements of the clearness index to assess the performance of our method, and we show that the images it selects accurately correspond to clear-sky images. We also compare our proposal, which is nonparametric, with a state-of-the-art parametric method. The numerical results indicate that the performance of the method proposed here is superior.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Novel Segmentation Algorithm for the ARM User Facility All-Sky Imagers Using Machine Learning Applications

Cloud cover plays a pivotal role in modulating the Earth's energy budget through the reflection of incoming solar radiation and the trapping of outgoing longwave radiation. Ground-based all-sky imagers offer an objective assessment of cloud cover that can be used to estimate solar irradiance, classify cloud types, track cloud movement, and serve as a benchmark 10 for the evaluation of satellite and reanalysis data products. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has utilized all-sky imagers for more than 25 years to monitor cloud cover and augment its comprehensive suite of atmospheric measurements. Following the retirement of its Total Sky Imager (TSI), ARM recently deployed the TSI’s successor, the All Sky Imager (ASI-16 camera systems). To provide a smooth transition and continuity to the vast amount of knowledge gathered by the TSI over the years, while addressing typical deployment issues, we developed a novel pixel segmentation algorithm, 15 the ASI Sky Cover (ASISKYCOVER). ASISKYCOVER builds on the different strengths and properties of the TSI processing algorithm while integrating machine learning techniques, ensuring data validity and accuracy across diverse atmospheric conditions. It enhances cloud cover characterization with new features such as artifact detection and uncertainty quantification. ASISKYCOVER also includes cloud cover estimates for near-zenith (narrow field-of-view) and reduces susceptibility to false detections. This study introduces ASISKYCOVER, details its algorithm framework, and demonstrates its capabilities using a 20 year-long dataset from the ARM Southern Great Plains site. Comparisons with co-located TSI data and other ARM measurements, such as zenith-pointing radars and lidars, are presented, underscoring the ASISKYCOVER’s potential to improve cloud cover analyses and data evaluation efforts, as well as to be integrated into higher-level data products that synergize instrument suites to generate new and insightful information

Silber, Israel↗
DOE OSTI2022

Convolutional neural networks for intra-hour solar forecasting based on sky image sequences

Accurate and timely solar forecasts play an increasingly critical role in power systems. Compared to longer forecasting timescales, very short-term solar forecasting has lagged behind in both research and practice. In this paper, we propose deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to provide operational intra-hour (10-minute-ahead to 60-minute-ahead) solar forecasts. We develop two CNN structures inspired by a widely-used CNN architecture. The CNNs are tailored to our solar forecasting regression tasks and rely solely on sky image sequences. Case studies based on six years of data (over 150,000 data points) demonstrate that the best CNN model has forecast skill scores of 20%-39% over the naive persistence of cloudiness benchmark, even at these very short timescales. The CNNs also have consistently superior performance when compared to shallow machine learning models with meteorological predictors, where the improvement averages around 7%. The sensitivity analyses show that the sky image length, resolution, and weather conditions have impacts on the deep learning model accuracy. In our intra-hour problem with specific setups, two sky images with a 10-minute 128 x 128 resolution yield the most accurate forecasts. Current limitations, future work, and deployment challenges and solutions are also discussed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Shallow cumuli cover and its uncertainties from ground-based lidar–radar data and sky images

Cloud cover estimates of single-layer shallow cumuli obtained from narrow field-of-view (FOV) lidar–radar and wide-FOV total sky imager (TSI) data are compared over an extended period (2000–2017 summers) at the established United States Atmospheric Radiation Measurement mid-continental Southern Great Plains site. We quantify the impacts of two factors on hourly and sub-hourly cloud cover estimates: (1) instrument-dependent cloud detection and data merging criteria and (2) FOV configuration. Enhanced observations at this site combine the advantages of the ceilometer, micropulse lidar (MPL) and cloud radar in merged data products. Data collected by these three instruments are used to calculate narrow-FOV cloud fraction (CF) as a temporal fraction of cloudy returns within a given period. Sky images provided by TSI are used to calculate the wide-FOV fractional sky cover (FSC) as a fraction of cloudy pixels within a given image. To assess the impact of the first factor on CF obtained from the merged data products, we consider two additional subperiods (2000–2010 and 2011–2017 summers) that mark significant instrumentation and algorithmic advances in the cloud detection and data merging. We demonstrate that CF obtained from ceilometer data alone and FSC obtained from sky images provide the most similar and consistent cloud cover estimates; hourly bias and root-mean-square difference (RMSD) are within 0.04 and 0.12, respectively. However, CF from merged MPL–ceilometer data provides the largest estimates of the multiyear mean cloud cover, about 0.12 (35 %) and 0.08 (24 %) greater than FSC for the first and second subperiods, respectively. CF from merged ceilometer–MPL–radar data has the strongest subperiod dependence with a bias of 0.08 (24 %) compared to FSC for the first subperiod and shows no bias for the second subperiod. The strong period dependence of CF obtained from the combined ceilometer–MPL–radar data is likely results from a change in what sensors are relied on to detect clouds below 3 km. After 2011, the MPL stopped being used for cloud top height detection below 3 km, leaving the radar as the only sensor used in cloud top height retrievals. To quantify the FOV impact, a narrow-FOV FSC is derived from the TSI images. We demonstrate that FOV configuration does not modify the bias but impacts the RMSD (0.1 hourly, 0.15 sub-hourly). In particular, the FOV impact is significant for sub-hourly observations, where 41 % of narrow- and wide-FOV FSC differ by more than 0.1. A new “quick-look” tool is introduced to visualize impacts of these two factors through integration of CF and FSC data with novel TSI-based images of the spatial variability in cloud cover. The influence of cloud field organization, such cloud streets parallel to the wind direction, on narrow- and wide-FOV cloud cover estimates can be visually assessed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resampling and data augmentation for short-term PV output prediction based on an imbalanced sky images dataset using convolutional neural networks

Integrating photovoltaics (PV) into electricity grids is challenged by potentially large fluctuations in power generation. In recent years, sky image-based PV output prediction using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) has emerged as a promising approach to forecasting fluctuations. A key challenge is imbalanced sky image datasets: because of the geography of solar PV system installations, sky image datasets are often rich in sunny condition data but deficient in cloudy condition data. This imbalance contrasts with the fact that model errors are dominated by cloudy condition performance. In this study, we attempt to remedy this by exploring the enrichment and augmentation of an imbalanced sky images dataset for two PV output prediction tasks: nowcasting (predicting concurrent PV output) and forecasting (predicting 15-minute-ahead future PV output). We empirically examine the efficacy of using different resampling and data augmentation approaches to create a rebalanced dataset for model development. A three-stage greedy search is used to determine the optimal resampling approach, data augmentation techniques and over-sampling rate. The results show that for the nowcast problem, resampling and data augmentation can effectively enhance the model performance, reducing overall root mean squared error (RMSE) by an average of 4%, or a 15 std. (standard deviation) of improvement compared to the variability of the baseline model. In contrast, the treatment RMSE for the forecast problem nearly always overlaps the baseline performance at the ± 2 std. level. The optimal resampling approach expands on the original dataset by over-sampling the minority cloudy data, with the best results from large over-sampling rate (e.g., 4 ~ 6 times over-sampling of cloudy images).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Short-term solar radiation forecast using total sky imager via transfer learning

Ground-based sky cameras, which capture hemispherical images, have been extensively used for localized monitoring of clouds. This paper proposes a short-term forecasting approach based on transfer learning using Total Sky-Imager (TSI) images of the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site obtained from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) dataset. An accurate estimation of solar irradiance using TSI is key for short-term solar energy generation forecasting and optimal energy consumption planning. We make use of deep neural network architectures such as AlexNet and ResNet-101 to extract the underlying deep convolution features from TSI images and then train using an ensemble learning approach to model and forecast solar radiation. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach by showcasing the best and worst cases. Thus, the transfer learning approach significantly reduces the time and resources required for modeling solar radiation. We outperform with reference to another state-of-art technique for solar modeling using TSI images at different forecast lead times.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Systems and methods for single-axis tracking via sky imaging and machine leanring comprising a neural network to determine an angular position of a photovoltaic power system

A system and method is disclosed for solar tracking and controlling an angular position of a photovoltaic power system. The solar tracking system includes an imaging device for capturing images of the sky; a solar position data generating module; and a control system comprising a neural network. The neural network has multiple convolutional layers to generate a first output associated with the images, and a solar position data module. A first dense layer module receives the solar position data and generates a second output. A second dense layer module receives the first output and the second output and generates a concatenated data sequence. A processor is programmed to generate a multi-planar irradiance signal (MPIS) in response to the concatenated data sequence, and determine an angular position of the PV power system and adjust the angular position in response to an angle of maximum irradiance.

Stein, Joshua↗
DOE OSTI2022

Solar Irradiance Ramp Forecasting Based on All-Sky Imagers

Solar forecasting constitutes a critical tool for operating, producing and storing generated power from solar farms. In the framework of the International Energy Agency’s Photovoltaic Power Systems Program Task 16, the solar irradiance nowcast algorithms, based on five all-sky imagers (ASIs), are used to investigate the feasibility of ASIs to foresee ramp events. ASIs 1–2 and ASIs 3–5 can capture the true ramp events by 26.0–51.0% and 49.0–92.0% of the cases, respectively. ASIs 1–2 provided the lowest (<10.0%) falsely documented ramp events while ASIs 3–5 recorded false ramp events up to 85.0%. On the other hand, ASIs 3–5 revealed the lowest falsely documented no ramp events (8.0–51.0%). ASIs 1–2 are developed to provide spatial solar irradiance forecasts and have been delimited only to a small area for the purposes of this benchmark, which penalizes these approaches. These findings show that ASI-based nowcasts could be considered as a valuable tool for predicting solar irradiance ramp events for a variety of solar energy technologies. The combination of physical and deep learning-based methods is identified as a potential approach to further improve the ramp event forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Benchmarking of Solar Irradiance Nowcast Performance Derived from All-Sky Imagers

Fluctuations of the incoming solar irradiance impact the power generation from photovoltaic and concentrating solar thermal power plants. Accurate solar nowcasting becomes necessary to detect these sudden changes of generated power and to provide the desired information for optimal exploitation of solar systems. In the framework of the International Energy Agency's Photovoltaic Power Systems Program Task 16, a benchmarking exercise has been conducted relying on a bouquet of solar nowcasting methodologies by all-sky imagers (ASI). In this paper, four ASI systems nowcast the Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) with a time forecast ranging from 1 to 20 min during 28 days with variable cloud conditions spanning from September to November 2019 in southern Spain. All ASIs demonstrated their ability to accurately nowcast GHI, with RMSE ranging from 6.9% to 18.1%. Under cloudy conditions, all ASIs' nowcasts outperform the persistence models. Under clear skies, three ASIs are better than persistence. Discrepancies in the observed nowcasting performance become larger at increasing forecast horizons. The findings of this study highlight the feasibility of ASIs to reliably nowcast GHI at different sky conditions, time intervals and horizons. Such nowcasts can be used either to estimate solar power at distant times or detect sudden GHI fluctuations.

all-sky imagers↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integration of Total-Sky Imager Data with a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model for Intra-Hour Forecasting of Solar Radiation

Short-term solar forecasting models based solely on global horizontal irradiance (GHI) measurements are often unable to discriminate the forecasting of the factors affecting GHI from those that can be precisely computed by atmospheric models. Our previous study introduced a Physics-based Smart Persistence model for Intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) that decomposed the forecasting of GHI into the computation of extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle and the forecasting of cloud albedo and cloud fraction. The extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle were accurately computed by the Solar Position Algorithm (SPA) developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). A cloud retrieval technique was used to estimate cloud albedo and cloud fraction from surface-based observations of GHI. With the assumption of persistent cloud structures, the cloud albedo and cloud fraction were predicted for future time steps using a two-stream approximation and a 5-minute exponential weighted moving average, respectively. The model evaluation indicated the estimation and forecast of cloud fraction mostly contributed to the uncertainty of the PSPI though it overcame the persistence and smart persistence models in all forecast time horizons between 5 and 60 minutes. This study aims to enhance the PSPI by ingesting surface-based observations of cloud fraction from a total sky imager (TSI). The estimation and forecast of cloud albedo is correspondingly improved by utilizing the cloud fraction observations and thus leads to more accurate GHI forecast. Various time-series analysis methods are also investigated on the forecasting of cloud fraction and cloud albedo for further improving the GHI forecast. These improvements are valuable for many applications, such as forecasting energy use for buildings, grid operations, and ultimately bringing down the cost of solar energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Occlusion-Perturbed Deep Learning for Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Sky Images

Solar forecasting is shifting to the probabilistic paradigm due to the inherent uncertainty within the solar resource. Input uncertainty quantification is one of the widely used and best-performing ways to model solar uncertainty. However, compared to other sources of inputs, such as numerical weather prediction models, pure sky image-based probabilistic solar forecasting lags behind. In this research, an occlusion-perturbed convolutional neural network, named the PSolarNet, is developed. The PSolarNet provides very short-term deterministic forecasts, forecast scenarios, and probabilistic forecasts of the global horizontal irradiance from sky image sequences. Case studies based on 6 years of open-source data show that the developed PSolarNet is able to generate accurate 10-minute ahead deterministic forecasts with a 5.62% normalized root mean square error, realistic and diverse forecast scenarios with a 0.966 average correlation with the actual time series, and reliable and sharp probabilistic forecasts with a 2.77% normalized continuous ranked probability score.

Bayesian model averaging↗
DOE OSTI2022

Occlusion-Perturbed Deep Learning for Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Sky Images: Preprint

Solar forecasting is shifting to the probabilistic paradigm due to the inherent uncertainty within the solar resource. Input uncertainty quantification is one of the widely used and best-performing ways to model solar uncertainty. However, compared to other sources of inputs, such as numerical weather prediction models, pure sky image-based probabilistic solar forecasting lags behind. In this research, an occlusion-perturbed convolutional neural network, named the PSolarNet, is developed. The PSolarNet provides very short-term deterministic forecasts, forecast scenarios, and probabilistic forecasts of the global horizontal irradiance from sky image sequences. Case studies based on 6 years of open-source data show that the developed PSolarNet is able to generate accurate 10-minute ahead deterministic forecasts with a 5.62% normalized root mean square error, realistic and diverse forecast scenarios with a 0.966 average correlation with the actual time series, and reliable and sharp probabilistic forecasts with a 2.77% normalized continuous ranked probability score.

Bayesian model averaging↗
DOE OSTI2021

First Simultaneous Observation of STEVE and SAR Arc Combining Data From Citizen Scientists, 630.0 nm All‐Sky Images, and Satellites

Abstract On September 28, 2017 citizen scientist observations at Alberta, Canada (51°N, 113° W) detected aurora and a thin east‐west purplish arc, known as strong thermal emission velocity enhancement (STEVE) that lasted less than 20 min. All‐sky imagers at subauroral latitudes measured stable auroral red (SAR) arcs during the entire night. The imager at Bridger, MT (45.3°N, 108.9°W) also measured a STEVE. The overlapping geometry allowed to determine that the height of STEVE was 225–275 km. STEVE is brighter in the 630.0 nm images in the West and almost merges with the SAR arc in the East. A DMSP satellite pass in the southern hemisphere was at the conjugate location of the Bridger imager during the STEVE observation. When mapped into the northern hemisphere intense subauroral ion drift and subauroral polarization streams were detected associated with the two optical signatures measured in 630.0 nm.

Martinis, C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Solar Transposition Modeling via Deep Neural Networks With Sky Images

This article presents a notable advance toward the development of a new method of increasing the single-axis tracking photovoltaic (PV) system power output by improving the determination and near-term prediction of the optimum module tilt angle. The tilt angle of the plane receiving the greatest total irradiance changes with Sun position and atmospheric conditions including cloud formation and movement, aerosols, and particulate loading, as well as varying albedo within a module's field of view. In this article, we present a multi-input convolutional neural network that can create a profile of plane-of-array irradiance versus surface tilt angle over a full 180° arc from horizon to horizon. As input, the neural network uses the calculated solar position and clear-sky irradiance values, along with sky images. The target irradiance values are provided by the multiplanar irradiance sensor (MPIS). In order to account for varying irradiance conditions, the MPIS signal is normalized by the theoretical clear-sky global horizontal irradiance. Using this information, the neural network outputs an N -dimensional vector, where N is the number of points to approximate the MPIS curve via Fourier resampling. The output vector of the model is smoothed with a Gaussian kernel to account for error in the downsamping and subsequent upsampling steps, as well as to smooth the unconstrained output of the model. Furthermore, these profiles may be used to perform near-term prediction of angular irradiance, which can then inform the movement of a PV tracker.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Solar and Load Forecasting Incorporating HD Sky Imaging (Phase III)

Due to rapidly changing sky conditions, the available solar irradiance for energy generation is subject to wide swings in amplitude. As the market penetration of solar energy continues to increase rapidly, these variations in solar power generation are beginning to have an impact on grid stability and increased wear on power switches. Solar power forecasting plays a critical role in operations for Independent System Operators (ISOs) and utilities. Accurate forecasts help maintain grid reliability, optimize generation from renewables, and reduce operating costs. Of particular interest to the ISOs and utilities are sudden changes in solar irradiance, termed “ramp events,” due to the movement of clouds. One significant impact of ramp events on the grid is additional ancillary service requirements necessary to manage such variability. Ramp events can also cause voltage fluctuations in the distribution grids and trigger actions of automated line equipment (e.g., tap changers), leading to additional maintenance costs. In high penetration solar regions, forecasts must be made for both transmission-connected and distribution-connected resources – either behind the meter or in front of it. Particularly for distributed solar energy resources, forecasting can be a challenge due to the lack of visibility of the energy resource. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has been working towards nowcasting Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) using low-cost technologies for several years now. The Solar NowCasting technology being developed by BNL is a 0 – 30 min solar “nowcasting” technology applicable to a scale covering both large generating facilities and residential, distributed solar installations that relies on a network of ground-based high-definition (HD) cameras and surface pyranometers. GHI forecasts are being produced for both regions using 8 ground-based HD cameras and at least 2 surface pyranometers. When stitched together, the camera images can be used to forecast the impact of clouds on available solar irradiance over a domain of ~50 km 2 . Phase I of the project was the engineering scale up conceptual design stage. Phase II was the initial field test and demonstration, in which the technology was scaled up by a factor of 20 times and successfully demonstrated in eastern Long Island. In Phase III, an additional forecasting network was added in upstate NY and both networks are currently being operated until at least a full year of data is gathered by the Albany network to allow for the collection of sufficient data to evaluate performance against the persistence and smart persistence models using the Solar Arbiter.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗