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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

University of Miami G-band Vapor Radiometer Calibration (UMGVR_CAL) Field Campaign Report

Cold-air outbreak (CAO) clouds in the Arctic are commonly mixed-phase (MP); however, the partitioning of the amount of ice and water in CAO clouds and precipitation is not always well observed. Understanding how cloud phases partition as a function of cloud life cycle is important for predicting snowfall rates, convective life cycle, and intensity at weather timescales. The partitioning into liquid versus ice also has radiative impacts that are consequential for climate. These concerns motivated the incorporation of an airborne G-band vapor radiometer (GVR) into an National Science Foundation-supported aircraft campaign named the Cold Air outbreak Experiment in the Sub-Arctic Region (CAESAR). The GVR is an upward-pointing passive microwave radiometer using four frequencies centered around the 183.31 GHz water vapor absorption line, displaced by +- 1, 3, 7, and 14 GHz. For context, The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility operates a surface-based GVR at its North Slope of Alaska (NSA) site. The same GVR has been used previously for a field campaign in the southeast Pacific, where an offset was noticed between brightness temperatures (Tbs) measured under clear skies compared to those calculated from a radiative transfer model. To account for any calibration offsets to the Tbs, a request was made to DOE to allow the GVR to operate at ARM’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory and enable comparisons between its measurements and those available at SGP. This request was granted, titled ‘UMGVR_CAL’, short for ‘UMGVR_Calibration’. From October 30 to November 10, 2023, the GVR was deployed to the ARM SGP site to take advantage of their regular, nearby radiosonde launches under clear-sky conditions. The latter were determined using the SGP total sky imagery data. The GVR brightness temperatures in these clear-sky conditions were compared to those calculated by a radiative transfer code (PAMTRA) based on the SGP radiosondes. During the campaign, four suitable clear-sky episodes could be used for the GVR calibration. While few in number, these proved to be enough to satisfy our goal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

University of Miami G-band Vapor Radiometer Calibration at SGP during November 2023

From October 13, 2023 until November 16, 2023, the GVR was deployed to the DOE ARM SGP site, to take advantage of their regular near-by radiosonde launches under clear-sky conditions. The latter were determined using the SGP total sky imagery data. The GVR brightness temperatures in these clear-sky conditions were compared to those calculated by a radiative transfer code (PAMTRA) based on the SGP radiosondes. During the campaign, 4 suitable clear-sky episodes occurred that could be used for the GVR calibration. While few in number, these proved to be enough to satisfy our goal.

airborne G-band Vapor Radiometer↗
DOE OSTI2016

Identification of periods of clear sky irradiance in time series of GHI measurements

In this study, we present a simple algorithm for identifying periods of time with broadband global horizontal irradiance (GHI) similar to that occurring during clear sky conditions from a time series of GHI measurements. Other available methods to identify these periods do so by identifying periods with clear sky conditions using additional measurements, such as direct or diffuse irradiance. Our algorithm compares characteristics of the time series of measured GHI with the output of a clear sky model without requiring additional measurements. We validate our algorithm using data from several locations by comparing our results with those obtained from a clear sky detection algorithm, and with satellite and ground-based sky imagery.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Infrared Sky Imager (IRSI) Instrument Handbook

The Infrared Sky Imager (IRSI) deployed at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility is a Solmirus Corp. All Sky Infrared Visible Analyzer. The IRSI is an automatic, continuously operating, digital imaging and software system designed to capture hemispheric sky images and provide time series retrievals of fractional sky cover during both the day and night. The instrument provides diurnal, radiometrically calibrated sky imagery in the mid-infrared atmospheric window and imagery in the visible wavelengths for cloud retrievals during daylight hours. The software automatically identifies cloudy and clear regions at user-defined intervals and calculates fractional sky cover, providing a real-time display of sky conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

PSF Estimation in Crowded Astronomical Imagery as a Convolutional Dictionary Learning Problem

In this paper, we present a new algorithm for estimating the Point Spread Function (PSF) in wide-field astronomical images with extreme source crowding. Robust and accurate PSF estimation in crowded astronomical images dramatically improves the fidelity of astrometric and photometric measurements extracted from wide-field sky monitoring imagery. Our radically new approach utilizes convolutional sparse representations to model the continuous functions involved in the image formation. This approach avoids the need to detect and precisely localize individual point sources that is shared by existing methods. In experiments involving simulated astronomical imagery, it significantly outperforms the recent alternative method with which it is compared.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advances in solar forecasting: Computer vision with deep learning

Renewable energy forecasting is crucial for integrating variable energy sources into the grid. It allows power systems to address the intermittency of the energy supply at different spatiotemporal scales. To anticipate the future impact of cloud displacements on the energy generated by solar facilities, conventional modeling methods rely on numerical weather prediction or physical models, which have difficulties in assimilating cloud information and learning systematic biases. Augmenting computer vision with machine learning overcomes some of these limitations by fusing real-time cloud cover observations with surface measurements acquired from multiple sources. This Review summarizes recent progress in solar forecasting from multisensor Earth observations with a focus on deep learning, which provides the necessary theoretical framework to develop architectures capable of extracting relevant information from data generated by ground-level sky cameras, satellites, weather stations, and sensor networks. Overall, machine learning has the potential to significantly improve the accuracy and robustness of solar energy meteorology; however, more research is necessary to realize this potential and address its limitations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

A hybrid approach to estimate the complex motions of clouds in sky images

Tracking the motion of clouds is essential to forecasting the weather and to predicting the short-term solar energy generation. Existing techniques mainly fall into two categories: variational optical flow, and block matching. In this article, we summarize recent advances in estimating cloud motion using ground-based sky imagers and quantitatively evaluate state-of-the-art approaches. Then we propose a hybrid tracking framework to incorporate the strength of both block matching and optical flow models. To validate the accuracy of the proposed approach, we introduce a series of synthetic images to simulate the cloud movement and deformation, and thereafter comprehensively compare our hybrid approach with several representative tracking algorithms over both simulated and real images collected from various sites/imagers. The results show that our hybrid approach outperforms state-of-the-art models by reducing at least 30% motion estimation errors compared with the ground-truth motions in most of simulated image sequences. Furthermore, our hybrid model demonstrates its superior efficiency in several real cloud image datasets by lowering at least 15% Mean Absolute Error (MAE) between predicted images and ground-truth images.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

A comprehensive dataset for the accelerated development and benchmarking of solar forecasting methods

We describe and release a comprehensive solar irradiance, imaging, and forecasting dataset. Our goal with this release is to provide standardized solar and meteorological datasets to the research community for the accelerated development and benchmarking of forecasting methods. The data consist of three years (2014–2016) of quality-controlled, 1-min resolution global horizontal irradiance and direct normal irradiance ground measurements in California. In addition, we provide overlapping data from commonly used exogenous variables, including sky images, satellite imagery, and Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts. We also include sample codes of baseline models for benchmarking of more elaborated models.

Remote sensing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Overview of the distributed image processing infrastructure to produce the Legacy Survey of Space and Time

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory is preparing to execute the most ambitious astronomical survey ever attempted, the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). Currently the final phase of construction is under way in the Chilean Andes, with the Observatory’s ten-year science mission scheduled to begin in 2025. Rubin’s 8.4-meter telescope will nightly scan the southern hemisphere collecting imagery in the wavelength range 320–1050 nm covering the entire observable sky every 4 nights using a 3.2 gigapixel camera, the largest imaging device ever built for astronomy. Automated detection and classification of celestial objects will be performed by sophisticated algorithms on high-resolution images to progressively produce an astronomical catalog eventually composed of 20 billion galaxies and 17 billion stars and their associated physical properties. In this article we present an overview of the system currently being constructed to perform data distribution as well as the annual campaigns which reprocess the entire image dataset collected since the beginning of the survey. These processing campaigns will utilize computing and storage resources provided by three Rubin data facilities (one in the US and two in Europe). Each year a Data Release will be produced and disseminated to science collaborations for use in studies comprising four main science pillars: probing dark matter and dark energy, taking inventory of solar system objects, exploring the transient optical sky and mapping the Milky Way. Also presented is the method by which we leverage some of the common tools and best practices used for management of large-scale distributed data processing projects in the high energy physics and astronomy communities. We also demonstrate how these tools and practices are utilized within the Rubin project in order to overcome the specific challenges faced by the Observatory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A tale of a tail: a tidally disrupting ultra-diffuse galaxy in the M81 group

ABSTRACT We present the discovery of a giant tidal tail of stars associated with F8D1, the closest known example of an ultra-diffuse galaxy (UDG). F8D1 sits in a region of the sky heavily contaminated by Galactic cirrus and has been poorly studied since its discovery two decades ago. The tidal feature was revealed in a deep map of resolved red giant branch stars constructed using data from our Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam survey of the M81 Group. It has an average surface brightness of μg ∼ 32 mag arcsec−2 and can be traced for over a degree on the sky (60 kpc at the distance of F8D1) with our current imagery. We revisit the main body properties of F8D1 using deep multiband imagery acquired with MegaCam on CFHT and measure effective radii of 1.7–1.9 kpc, central surface brightnesses of 24.7–25.7 mag, and a stellar mass of ∼7 × 107M⊙. Assuming a symmetric feature on the other side of the galaxy, we calculate that 30–36 per cent of F8D1’s present-day luminosity is contained in the tail. We argue that the most likely origin of F8D1’s disruption is a recent close passage to M81, which would have stripped its gas and quenched its star formation. As the only UDG that has so far been studied to such faint surface brightness depths, the unveiling of F8D1’s tidal disruption is important. It leaves open the possibility that many other UDGs could be the result of similar processes, with the most telling signatures of this lurking below current detection limits.

Žemaitis, Rokas (ORCID:0000000285660491)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Image Collection Simulation Using High-Resolution Atmospheric Modeling

A new method is described for simulating the passive remote sensing image collection of ground targets that includes effects from atmospheric physics and dynamics at fine spatial and temporal scales. The innovation in this research is the process of combining a high-resolution weather model with image collection simulation to attempt to account for heterogeneous and high-resolution atmospheric effects on image products. The atmosphere was modeled on a 3D voxel grid by a Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) driven by forcing data constrained by local ground-based and air-based observations. The spatial scale of the atmospheric model (10–100 m) came closer than conventional weather forecast scales (10–100 km) to approaching the scale of typical commercial multispectral imagery (2 m). This approach was demonstrated through a ground truth experiment conducted at the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site. In this experiment, calibrated targets (colored spectral tarps) were placed on the ground, and the scene was imaged with WorldView-3 multispectral imagery at a resolution enabling the tarps to be visible in at least 9–12 image pixels. The image collection was simulated with Digital Imaging and Remote Sensing Image Generation (DIRSIG) software, using the 3D atmosphere from the LES model to generate a high-resolution cloud mask. The high-resolution atmospheric model-predicted cloud coverage was usually within 23% of the measured cloud cover. The simulated image products were comparable to the WorldView-3 satellite imagery in terms of the variations of cloud distributions and spectral properties of the ground targets in clear-sky regions, suggesting the potential utility of the proposed modeling framework in improving simulation capabilities, as well as testing and improving the operation of image collection processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Development of a MODIS-Derived Surface Albedo Data Set: An Improved Model Input for Processing the NSRDB

A significant source of bias in the transposition of global horizontal irradiance to plane-of-array (POA) irradiance arises from inaccurate estimations of surface albedo. The current physics-based model used to produce the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) relies on model estimations of surface albedo from a reanalysis climatalogy produced at relatively coarse spatial resolution compared to that of the NSRDB. As an input to spectral decomposition and transposition models, more accurate surface albedo data from remotely sensed imagery at finer spatial resolutions would improve accuracy in the final product. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed an improved white-sky (bi-hemispherical reflectance) broadband (0.3-5.0 ..mu..m) surface albedo data set for processing the NSRDB from two existing data sets: a gap-filled albedo product and a daily snow cover product. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites have provided high-quality measurements of surface albedo at 30 arc-second spatial resolution and 8-day temporal resolution since 2001. The high spatial and temporal resolutions and the temporal coverage of the MODIS sensor will allow for improved modeling of POA irradiance in the NSRDB. However, cloud and snow cover interfere with MODIS observations of ground surface albedo, and thus they require post-processing. The MODIS production team applied a gap-filling methodology to interpolate observations obscured by clouds or ephemeral snow. This approach filled pixels with ephemeral snow cover because the 8-day temporal resolution is too coarse to accurately capture the variability of snow cover and its impact on albedo estimates. However, for this project, accurate representation of daily snow cover change is important in producing the NSRDB. Therefore, NREL also used the Integrated Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System data set, which provides daily snow cover observations of the Northern Hemisphere for the temporal extent of the NSRDB (1998-2015). We provide a review of validation studies conducted on these two products and describe the methodology developed by NREL to remap the data products to the NSRDB grid and integrate them into a seamless daily data set.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Prospective Out-of-ecliptic White-light Imaging of Interplanetary Corotating Interaction Regions at Solar Maximum

Interplanetary corotating interaction regions (CIRs) can be remotely imaged in white light (WL), as demonstrated by the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) on board the Coriolis spacecraft and Heliospheric Imagers (HIs) on board the twin Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory ( STEREO ) spacecraft. The interplanetary WL intensity, due to Thomson scattering of incident sunlight by free electrons, is jointly determined by the 3D distribution of electron number density and line-of-sight (LOS) weighting factors of the Thomson-scattering geometry. The 2D radiance patterns of CIRs in WL sky maps look very different from different 3D viewpoints. Because of the in-ecliptic locations of both the STEREO and Coriolis spacecraft, the longitudinal dimension of interplanetary CIRs has, up to now, always been integrated in WL imagery. To synthesize the WL radiance patterns of CIRs from an out-of-ecliptic (OOE) vantage point, we perform forward magnetohydrodynamic modeling of the 3D inner heliosphere during Carrington Rotation CR1967 at solar maximum. The mixing effects associated with viewing 3D CIRs are significantly minimized from an OOE viewpoint. Our forward modeling results demonstrate that OOE WL imaging from a latitude greater than 60° can (1) enable the garden-hose spiral morphology of CIRs to be readily resolved, (2) enable multiple coexisting CIRs to be differentiated, and (3) enable the continuous tracing of any interplanetary CIR back toward its coronal source. In particular, an OOE view in WL can reveal where nascent CIRs are formed in the extended corona and how these CIRs develop in interplanetary space. Therefore, a panoramic view from a suite of wide-field WL imagers in a solar polar orbit would be invaluable in unambiguously resolving the large-scale longitudinal structure of CIRs in the 3D inner heliosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

SUPERMASSIVE BLACK HOLES AND THEIR HOST SPHEROIDS. I. DISASSEMBLING GALAXIES

Several recent studies have performed galaxy decompositions to investigate correlations between the black hole mass and various properties of the host spheroid, but they have not converged on the same conclusions. This is because their models for the same galaxy were often significantly different and not consistent with each other in terms of fitted components. Using 3.6 μm Spitzer imagery, which is a superb tracer of the stellar mass (superior to the K band), we have performed state-of-the-art multicomponent decompositions for 66 galaxies with directly measured black hole masses. Our sample is the largest to date and, unlike previous studies, contains a large number (17) of spiral galaxies with low black hole masses. We paid careful attention to the image mosaicking, sky subtraction, and masking of contaminating sources. After a scrupulous inspection of the galaxy photometry (through isophotal analysis and unsharp masking) and—for the first time—2D kinematics, we were able to account for spheroids; large-scale, intermediate-scale, and nuclear disks; bars; rings; spiral arms; halos; extended or unresolved nuclear sources; and partially depleted cores. For each individual galaxy, we compared our best-fit model with previous studies, explained the discrepancies, and identified the optimal decomposition. Moreover, we have independently performed one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) decompositions and concluded that, at least when modeling large, nearby galaxies, 1D techniques have more advantages than 2D techniques. Finally, we developed a prescription to estimate the uncertainties on the 1D best-fit parameters for the 66 spheroids that takes into account systematic errors, unlike popular 2D codes that only consider statistical errors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

SCOPE: Spectral cloud optical property estimation using real-time GOES-R longwave imagery

The output of ground-based, solar power generation systems is strongly dependent on cloud cover, which is the main contributor to solar power variability and uncertainty. Cloud optical properties are typically over-simplified in forecasting applications due to the lack of realtime, accurate estimates. In this work, we introduce a method, the Spectral Cloud Optical Property Estimation (SCOPE), for estimating cloud optical properties directly from high-resolution (5-min, 2 km) imagery from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-R, which is the newest generation of the GOES system. The SCOPE method couples a two-stream, spectrally resolved radiative model with the longwave GOES-R sensor output to simultaneously estimate the cloud optical depth, cloud top height, and cloud thickness during both day and night at 5-min intervals. The accuracy of SCOPE is evaluated using one year (2018) of downwelling longwave (DLW) radiation measurements from the Surface Radiation Budget Network, which consists of seven sites spread across climatically diverse regions of the contiguous United States. During daytime clear-sky periods, SCOPE predicts DLW within instrument uncertainty (10 W m -2 ) for four of the seven locations, with the remaining locations yielding errors of the order of 11.2, 17.7, and 20.2 W m -2 . For daytime cloudy-sky, daytime all-sky (clear or cloudy), and nighttime all-sky periods, SCOPE achieves root mean square error values of 23.0–34.5 W m -2 for all seven locations. These results, together with the low-latency of the method (1 s per sample), show that SCOPE provides a viable solution to real-time, accurate estimation of cloud optical properties for both day and night.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2016

A Public-Private-Acadmic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is pleased to have led a partnership to advance the state-of-the-science of solar power forecasting by designing, developing, building, deploying, testing, and assessing the SunCast™ Solar Power Forecasting System. The project has included cutting edge research, testing in several geographically- and climatologically-diverse high penetration solar utilities and Independent System Operators (ISOs), and wide dissemination of the research results to raise the bar on solar power forecasting technology. The partners include three other national laboratories, six universities, and industry partners. This public-private-academic team has worked in concert to perform use-inspired research to advance solar power forecasting through cutting-edge research to advance both the necessary forecasting technologies and the metrics for evaluating them. The project has culminated in a year-long, full-scale demonstration of provide irradiance and power forecasts to utilities and ISOs to use in their operations. The project focused on providing elements of a value chain, beginning with the weather that causes a deviation from clear sky irradiance and progresses through monitoring and observations, modeling, forecasting, dissemination and communication of the forecasts, interpretation of the forecast, and through decision-making, which produces outcomes that have an economic value. The system has been evaluated using metrics developed specifically for this project, which has provided rich information on model and system performance. Research was accomplished on the very short range (0-6 hours) Nowcasting system as well as on the longer term (6-72 hour) forecasting system. The shortest range forecasts are based on observations in the field. The shortest range system, built by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and based on Total Sky Imagers (TSIs) is TSICast, which operates on the shortest time scale with a latency of only a few minutes and forecasts that currently go out to about 15 min. This project has facilitated research in improving the hardware and software so that the new high definition cameras deployed at multiple nearby locations allow discernment of the clouds at varying levels and advection according to the winds observed at those levels. Improvements over “smart persistence” are about 29% for even these very short forecasts. StatCast is based on pyranometer data measured at the site as well as concurrent meteorological observations and forecasts. StatCast is based on regime-dependent artificial intelligence forecasting techniques and has been shown to improve on “smart persistence” forecasts by 15-50%. A second category of short-range forecasting systems employ satellite imagery and use that information to discern clouds and their motion, allowing them to project the clouds, and the resulting blockage of irradiance, in time. CIRACast (the system produced by the Cooperative Institute for Atmospheric Research [CIRA] at Colorado State University) was already one of the more advanced cloud motion systems, which is the reason that team was brought to this project. During the project timeframe, the CIRA team was able to advance cloud shadowing, parallax removal, and implementation of better advecting winds at different altitudes. CIRACast shows generally a 25-40% improvement over Smart Persistence between sunrise and approximately 1600 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) . A second satellite-based system, MADCast (Multi-sensor Advective Diffusive foreCast system), assimilates data from multiple satellite imagers and profilers to assimilate a fully three-dimensional picture of the cloud into the dynamic core of WRF. During 2015, MADCast (provided at least 70% improvement over Smart Persistence, with most of that skill being derived during partly cloudy conditions. That allows advection of the clouds via the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model dynamics directly. After WRF-Solar™ showed initial success, it was also deployed in nowcasting mode with coarser runs out to 6 hours made hourly. It provided improvements on the order of 50-60% over Smart Persistence for forecasts up to 1600 UTC. The advantages of WRF-Solar-Nowcasting and MADCast were then blended to develop the new MAD-WRF model that incorporates the most important features of each of those models, both assimilating satellite cloud fields and using WRF-So far physics to develop and dissipate clouds. MAE improvements for MAD-WRF for forecasts from 3-6 hours are improved over WRF-Solar-Now by 20%. While all the Nowcasting system components by themselves provide improvement over Smart Persistence, the largest benefit is derived when they are smartly blended together by the Nowcasting Integrator to produce an integrated forecast. The development of WRF-Solar™ under this project has provided the first numerical weather prediction (NWP) model specifically designed to meet the needs of irradiance forecasting. The first augmentation improved the solar tracking algorithm to account for deviations associated with the eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit and the obliquity of the Earth. Second, WRF-Solar™ added the direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse (DIF) components from the radiation parameterization to the model output. Third, efficient parameterizations were implemented to either interpolate the irradiance in between calls to the expensive radiative transfer parameterization, or to use a fast radiative transfer code that avoids computing three-dimensional heating rates but provides the surface irradiance. Fourth, a new parameterization was developed to improve the representation of absorption and scattering of radiation by aerosols (aerosol direct effect). A fifth advance is that the aerosols now interact with the cloud microphysics, altering the cloud evolution and radiative properties, an effect that has been traditionally only implemented in atmospheric computationally costly chemistry models. A sixth development accounts for the feedbacks that sub-grid scale clouds produce in shortwave irradiance as implemented in a shallow cumulus parameterization Finally, WRF-Solar™ also allows assimilation of infrared irradiances from satellites to determine the three dimensional cloud field, allowing for an improved initialization of the cloud field that increases the performance of short-range forecasts. We find that WRF-Solar™ can improve clear sky irradiance prediction by 15-80% over a standard version of WRF, depending on location and cloud conditions. In a formal comparison to the NAM baseline, WRF-Solar™ showed improvements in the Day-Ahead forecast of 22-42%. The SunCast™ system requires substantial software engineering to blend all of the new model components as well as existing publically available NWP model runs. To do this we use an expert system for the Nowcasting blender and the Dynamic Integrated foreCast (DICast®) system for the NWP models. These two systems are then blended, we use an empirical power conversion method to convert the irradiance predictions to power, then apply an analog ensemble (AnEn) approach to further tune the forecast as well as to estimate its uncertainty. The AnEn module decreased RMSE (root mean squared error) by 17% over the blended SunCast™ power forecasts and provided skill in the probabilistic forecast with a Brier Skill Score of 0.55. In addition, we have also developed a Gridded Atmospheric Forecast System (GRAFS) in parallel, leveraging cost share funds. An economic evaluation based on Production Cost Modeling in the Public Service Company of Colorado showed that the observed 50% improvement in forecast accuracy will save their customers $819,200 with the projected MW deployment for 2024. Using econometrics, NCAR has scaled this savings to a national level and shown that an annual expected savings for this 50% forecast error reduction ranges from $11M in 2015 to $43M expected in 2040 with increased solar deployment. This amounts to a $455M discounted savings over the 26 year period of analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗