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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling the Impacts of Microtopography and Shrub Distribution on Snow Depth in a Subarctic Watershed: Toward a Predictive Understanding of Snow Spatial Variability

Snow plays a critical role in carbon cycling, vegetation dynamics, and permafrost hydrology at high latitudes by influencing surface energy exchange. Predicting snow distribution patterns is essential for understanding the evolution of Arctic ecosystems, yet scaling process-level knowledge to landscape predictions remains challenging. Here, we analyze snow depth (2019 and 2022), terrain elevation, and vegetation height from a watershed on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, to examine how topography and shrubs shape snow redistribution across spatial scales. We find that snow depth is strongly coupled to terrain at scales below ∼60 m but becomes increasingly decoupled at larger scales. The topographic model of snow depth variation, which transforms terrain data to align with these scale-dependent snow patterns, is well correlated with local snow depth variations (linear fit R 2 > 0.5 for 85% of 100-m patches). A machine learning reconstruction of shrub canopy snow trapping reveals a simple exponential relationship between canopy structure and snow accumulation ( R 2 = 0.59), highlighting the combined influence of topography and vegetation on snow distribution. Together, these empirical relationships capture much of the observed snow variability in the watershed ( R 2 = 0.49, root mean square error (RMSE) = 30 cm), though systematic limitations persist in areas of strong scour and at coarser scales where wind-terrain interactions are more complex. These findings provide a framework for more efficient snow depth prediction and offer insights to improve snow-vegetation feedback representation in Earth System Models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Snow Distribution Patterns Revisited: A Physics-Based and Machine Learning Hybrid Approach to Snow Distribution Mapping in the Sub-Arctic

Snowpack distribution in Arctic and alpine landscapes often occurs in repeating, year-to-year patterns due to local topographic, weather, and vegetation characteristics. Previous studies have suggested that with years of observational data, these snow distribution patterns can be statistically integrated into a snow process modeling workflow. Recent advances in snow hydrology and machine learning (ML) have increased our ability to predict snowpack distribution using in-situ observations, remote sensing data sets, and simple landscape characteristics that can be easily obtained for most environments. Here, we propose a hybrid approach to couple a ML snow distribution pattern (MLSDP) map with a physics-based, snow process model. We trained a random forest ML algorithm on tens of thousands of snow survey observations from a subarctic study area on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, collected during peak snow water equivalent (SWE). We validated hybrid model outputs using in-situ snow depth and SWE observations, as well as a light detection and ranging data set and a distributed temperature profiling sensor data set. When the hybrid results were compared with the physics-based method, the hybrid method more accurately depicted the spatial patterns of the snowpack, areas of drifting snow, and years when no in-situ observations were used in the random forest ML training data set. The hybrid method also showed improvements in root mean squared error at 61% of locations where time-series estimations of snow depth were observed. These results can be applied to any physics-based model to improve the snow distribution patterning to reflect observed conditions in high latitude and high elevation cold region environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing the Understanding of Snow Accumulation, Melting, and Associated Thermal Insulation Using Spatially Dense Snow Depth and Temperature Time Series

Snow thermal insulation is a critical factor influencing ground thermal dynamics and associated biogeochemical processes. We analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of snow accumulation, melting, and thermal insulation dynamics using spatially dense, collocated snow depth and ground interface temperature time series over two consecutive years. We demonstrated that considering late‐winter snow depth alone was insufficient to fully capture the complexity in snow and insulation dynamics. The influence of vegetation and topography on snow depth distribution varied over the season, across sites and years. We found that deep snow with a long melting period had a substantial impact on thawing n‐factors. To better predict snow insulation effects, we proposed a new weighted snow depth metric that integrates mean daily snow depth and air temperature throughout the cold season. Our results provide insights for developing space‐time remote sensing products and evaluating the representation of snow and permafrost processes in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

NGEE Arctic Integrated Modeling (IM3): Improved snow-vegetation interaction

This data product represents the integration of new code capability for arctic tundra snow-vegetation-terrain interactions into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), through the E3SM Land Model (ELM) component. This code integration is the result of collaborative effort between the NGEE Arctic project and the E3SM project. The NGEE Arctic project developed a total of six Integrated Modeling (IM) modules informed by observations and experiments. New ELM capability represented by this data product (IM3) falls into three categories: 1) Downscaling from gridcell to topographic unit level when working through the existing coupler bypass code. 2) Four new parameters (taper, stocking, bendresist, and vegshape) have been added to ELM to allow for flexible definition of snow-vegetation interactions. 3) Vegshape and bendresist parameters are used to calculate the fraction of leaf area and/or stem area buried by snow for a given snow depth. This data record consists of a single document (pdf format) that describes the theoretical basis for the snow-vegetation-terrain interactions added to ELM, and describes the modifications made to the ELM code. The Methods section of this metadata record includes a link to the public E3SM code repository where the exact code modifications as integrated in E3SM can be accessed. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

Thornton, Peter E [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247595158)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Snow ALbedo eVOlution (SALVO) Campaign Snow Depth and Related Surface Properties from April - June, 2024 in Utqiagivk, AK

Detailed transects of snow depths and related measurements were made with a magnaprobe along fixed lines in Utqiagvik, AK. The operator measures snow depth by plunging a rod with a sliding basket into the snow and pressing a trigger. At this point, the data logger records the distance between the tip of the rod and the height of the basket, the measurement number, the time, and the geographic location of the measurement. To measure snow depth, the rod tip must be placed at the snow-ground or snow-sea ice interface. The interface can be hard or soft; in the latter case, it is possible to “over-probe”, producing a snow depth that is too high. At times, the probe was also used to measure the depths of other interfaces within the snowpack (for example, the depth to persistent ice lenses) or the water depths of ponds atop the tundra or sea ice. When these alternative depth measurements were made, the operator recorded the location, measurement number, and composition of the alternative depth measurement in a field notebook. The data logger on the probe stores several thousand points. Data is downloaded to a computer at the end of a day or several days. Probes: We used 2 magnaprobes identified as GEO1 and GEODEL with the following serial numbers: S/N 20240416 (GEO1) and S/N P48066 (GEODEL). Note : There are three data levels available with this dataset: b3, b4, and a6. New users of these data are strongly encouraged to use the level a6 or b4 data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparisons of Montane Snow Water Equivalent Projections: Calculating Total Snow Mass in Regions with Projection Agreement and Divergence in the Western United States

Montane snowpack is a vital source of water in the western United States. Here, we use a large-ensemble approach to evaluate the agreement across 124 snow water equivalent (SWE) projections with statistically downscaled forcing between end-of-century (2076–95) and early twenty-first century (2106–35) periods. Comparisons were performed on dates corresponding with the end of winter (15 April) and midspring snowmelt (15 May) in five western U.S. domains. Using 1) the percent change to end-of-century SWE across different ensembles of snow projections and 2) the shift between early twenty-first century and end-of-century SWE distributions for each snow projection, we identified relationships between projections that were consistent across each domain. In low to midelevations, end-of-century SWE decreases were 48% and larger on 15 April. These regions had projected changes to SWE that were both high confidence and in relative agreement across projections. Despite this, the majority of 15 April SWE volume existed in higher elevations where the magnitude and direction (positive or negative) of SWE changes were most uncertain. The results of this study show that large-ensemble approaches can be used to measure coherence between snow projections and identify 1) the highest confidence changes to future snow water resources and 2) the locations and periods where and when improvements to snow projections would most benefit estimates of future snow water resources.

Climate models↗
DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling the Impacts of Microtopography and Shrub Distribution on Snow Depth in a Subarctic Watershed: Toward a Predictive Understanding of Snow Spatial Variability: Supporting Data and Code

This repository contains R code and associated datasets for reproducing the analysis described in the manuscript titled “Disentangling the Impacts of Microtopography and Shrub Distribution on Snow Depth in a Subarctic Watershed: Toward a Predictive Understanding of Snow Spatial Variability” (DOI: 10.1029/2024JG008604). The provided scripts facilitate a comprehensive analysis of snow depth variability influenced by microtopography and vegetation distribution in a subarctic watershed. Included datasets are high-resolution spatial maps of snow depth, terrain elevation, vegetation height, and distance from shrubs taller than 1 meter, all formatted as text files (.txt). These data are fully describe in doi:10.15485/2316038. Users can adapt the provided R scripts to accommodate different data formats or larger spatial domains, noting that some output files may require modification due to their size.The code includes implementations for boosted regression tree analysis adapted from methods outlined in Elith et al. (2008). Users interested in understanding or modeling landscape-scale snow distribution patterns, particularly in Arctic or subarctic ecosystems, will find this package useful. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Brief communication: Monitoring snow depth using small, cheap, and easy-to-deploy snow–ground interface temperature sensors

Abstract. Temporally continuous snow depth estimates are vital for understanding changing snow patterns and impacts on permafrost in the Arctic. We trained a random forest machine learning model to predict snow depth from variability in snow–ground interface temperature. The model performed well on Alaska's Seward Peninsula where it was trained and at Arctic evaluation sites (RMSE ≤ 0.15 m). It performed poorly at temperate sites with deeper snowpacks, partially due to training data limitations. Small temperature sensors are cheap and easy to deploy, so this technique enables spatially distributed and temporally continuous snowpack monitoring at high latitudes to an extent previously infeasible.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Continuous snow depth and temperature measurements from dense network of above-ground distributed temperature profiling systems from 2021-09-23 to 2024-08-23, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

The dataset contains temperature measurements from distributed temperature profiling (DTP) systems (Dafflon et al., 2022; Wielandt et al., 2022; Wang et al., 2024a; Fiolleau et al., 2024) deployed vertically above the ground surface at a large number of locations from 2021 to 2024. The research is designed to improve understanding of the local heterogeneity in snow depth and snow thermal insulation dynamics, as well as their interactions in a discontinuous permafrost region (Wang et al., 2025). The DTP systems were deployed at 96 locations in a watershed along the Nome-Teller road at mile marker 27 (T27) and at 54 locations on a hillslope along the Kougarok road at mile marker 64 (K64) in the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. The probe location information is stored in Probe_locations_T27.csv and Probe_locations_K64.csv. Temperature measurements were recorded at 15-minute intervals using high-precision digital sensors (accuracy: ±0.1°C, resolution: 0.0078°C). The temperature probes, either 1.4 m or 1.6 m long, contain sensors spaced every 5 cm or 10 cm along their length. The temperature data are stored in compressed files following the format: DTP_snow_air_temperature_(site)_(start)_(end).zip, where site is either T27 or K64, and start and end represent the time series period. Within each ZIP file, individual CSV files are named by probe ID and contain temperature records at different heights above the ground surface.This dataset also includes derived snow depth time series over three snow seasons, estimated from temperature measurements. Snow depth was estimated by identifying the consecutive sensor pair that exhibited the largest drop in high-frequency temperature fluctuations (detailed in the methods). These data are stored in: Snow_depths_flags_(site)_(start)_(end).csv, which includes snow depth time series and corresponding quality flags (defined in the methods) from different probes. Additionally, the dataset includes derived metrics and supporting measurements at selected locations over two snow seasons, contributing to the manuscript of Wang et al., 2025. These locations were chosen based on the availability of high-quality snow depth time series during both seasons. The additional data include: (1) Air temperature proxies measured from the top sensors on the pole when they were not buried by snow, stored in Air_temperature_proxies_(site)_(start)_(end).csv (2) Ground interface temperature, recorded at 3 cm above the ground, stored in Ground_interface_temperature_(site)_(start)_(end).csv (3) Site characteristics, including vegetation height, elevation, and the topographic position index (TPI) within a 50 m radius, stored in Selected_probe_locations_gps_vegheight_tpi_elevation_(site).csv. These metrics were derived from 1 m resolution summer LiDAR-based digital elevation models and digital surface models from Singhania et al., 2023, DOI:10.5440/1832016. Metadata files include data descriptions (_dd.csv) for tabular data. All included files are listed and described in xxxx_flmd.csv.This dataset is an updated version of a previous archive (Wang et al., 2024b, DOI: 10.15485/2475020), incorporating multiple seasons and improved snow depth estimation. Please note that due to large amount of information present in this dataset, many specificities associated with the acquisition of snow temperature, air temperature proxy and estimation of snow depth, and the future archiving of additional datasets on the soil temperature, thaw depth and soil characteristics at these locations, the author would welcome being contacted by people planning to use this dataset.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Snow Albedo Evolution (SALVO) Campaign at the North Slope of Alaska Field Campaign Report

The springtime surface-albedo transition in the Alaskan Arctic, along with the forces that determine its duration and nature, was the focus of the Snow ALbedo eVOlution (SALVO) campaign. The SALVO team investigated the reasons and durations of the stages of spring melt, during which albedo values decrease from 0.8 to 0.1, signifying the year’s largest and most significant radiative energy change. SALVO II (2022, 2024) built on findings from the successful SALVO I (2019) melt season campaign and previous research on the melt transition period conducted by Grenfell and Perovich (2004). SALVO used the ARM NSA observatory, thus aligning with a core principle of the ARM Decadal Vision to “provide comprehensive and impactful field measurements to support scientific advancement of atmospheric process understanding.” SALVO fieldwork was conducted in the spring near the ARM NSA Central Facility in Utqiagvik, Alaska (Figure 1). Comprehensive data sets were collected in 2019, 2022, and 2024, which included spectral and broadband albedos, snow and meltwater depths, snow stratigraphy, snow grain size data, and aerial imagery. In April of each project year, before the snow began to melt, we established survey lines at three or four locations: inland tundra at NSA E12, coastal tundra at the NSA C1 site, Elson Lagoon, and offshore on the Chukchi Sea sea ice (2022 only). We set up a 200-meter-long line, marked every five meters, to enable repeated measurements of surface albedo and snow depth at each location. During most site visits, the SALVO II team dug at least one snow pit to assess the characteristics of the vertical snow layers, including the types and sizes of snow grains, snow density, and the distribution of liquid water. We evaluated the characteristics of flowing or pooled water at the bottom of the snowpack. Watching snow melt in the Arctic has been compared by some to being as exciting as watching paint dry, but it is far more exciting and dynamic than that. Initially, changes happen slowly while the snow cover remains above 80%, but then reductions in the albedo of the landscape, from about 0.8 to 0.4, combined with rising spring temperatures, begin to accelerate the melt. It happens so quickly that no matter how hard the field team works, they cannot keep up with documenting the changes. At first, liquid water is scarce—only a few wet layers of snow in the snowpack. But then, water becomes ubiquitous, transporting melt energy and creating an extremely heterogeneous albedo and melt landscape. At the end of each field season, the SALVO team is exhausted, relieved to see the snow gone, and joyful to play in the melt ponds on the sea ice under the midnight sun. Overall, the 2024 SALVO field campaign was a highlight, reflecting numerous lessons learned from 2019 and 2022. Daily measurements were taken more than 10 times at each site, resulting in a comprehensive time series of snow conditions and albedo. The team deployed using snowmachines and then on foot when snowmachine travel was no longer permitted on the melting tundra. Instrument mounts and packaging were optimized for quick deployment, regardless of the mode of transportation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shrubs Strongly Influence Snow Properties in Two Subarctic Watersheds

Understanding changes in snow distribution in permafrost ecosystems is fundamental to predicting their response to future climate change. The expansion of tall shrubs into tundra ecosystems can trap snow and insulate permafrost ecosystems during the winter, but the overall insulation effect is dependent upon many ecosystem properties. To study shrub–snow–ground interactions, small temperature sensors were deployed at two research sites on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska, USA, during the 2019–2020 winter. Snow temperatures were used to extrapolate multiple metrics, including freezing n-factors, the snow insulation effect, snow cover duration, and the length of the snowmelt period. Statistical and spatial analysis showed that shrub patches were a dominant control on all snow metrics. Within shrub patches, average ground temperatures were 2.1°C warmer, snow persisted 50 days longer, snow insulation was double, and a longer, later spring snowmelt period occurred compared to nonshrubby areas. Site-level differences contributed relatively little to variation in snow metrics, indicating that shrub presence is an overarching driver of snow–ground interactions at the locations examined. Shrub expansion, which is anticipated under climate change, will strongly impact future permafrost distribution and Arctic energy, water, and carbon cycles through snow–shrub–ground feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Snow-eater heat waves of the western United States

Abrupt snowmelt, triggered by rain-on-snow events or "snow-eater heat waves," can cause flooding, initiate or accelerate snow drought, and affect water availability. However, the characteristics (e.g., area, duration, and frequency), impacts, and trends of snow-eater heat waves have received little attention. To address this gap, we developed a method to identify snow-eater heat waves and estimate their melt potential using 20th Century Reanalysis version 3 air temperature data, the TempestExtremes algorithm, and an operational snowmelt model (SNOW-17) across 1850-2015. Melt season snow-eater heat waves typically last 3 to 5 days, with three to five events, doubling snowmelt rates. Seven of 11 spring superfloods are shown to coincide with snow-eater heat waves. Since the 1850s, snow-eater heat waves have increased in area and frequency, decreased in duration, and shifted earlier in the melt season. Incorporating snow-eater heat-wave impacts into SNOW-17 enhances extreme melt estimates, improving water management support tools.

Rhoades, Alan M↗
DOE OSTI2024

Presenting a Model to Predict Changing Snow Albedo for Improving Photovoltaic Performance Simulation

As photovoltaic (PV) deployment increases worldwide, PV systems are being installed more frequently in locations that experience snow cover. The higher albedo of snow, relative to the ground, increases the performance of PV systems in northern and high-altitude locations by reflecting more light onto the PV modules. Accurate modeling of the snow’s albedo can improve estimates of PV system production. Typical modeling of snow albedo uses a simple two-value model that sets the albedo high when snow is present, and low when snow is not present. However, snow albedo changes over time as snow settles and melts and a binary model does not account for transitional changes, which can be significant. Here, we present and validate a model for estimating snow albedo as it changes over time. The model is simple enough to only require daily snow depth and hourly average temperature data, but can be improved through the addition of site-specific factors, when available. We validate this model to quantify its ability to more accurately predict snow albedo and compare the model’s performance against satellite imagery-based methods for obtaining historical albedo data. In addition, we perform modeling using the System Advisor Model (SAM) to show the impact of changes in albedo on energy modeling for PV systems. Overall, our albedo model has a significantly improved ability to predict the solar insolation on PV modules in real time, especially on bifacial PV modules where reflected irradiance plays a larger role in energy production.

Pike, Christopher (ORCID:0000000155888033)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mountain Basin Controls on the Snow-to-Streamflow Signal: An AIC-Weighted Multiple Linear Regression Framework

A regression-based analysis quantifies how basin characteristics modulate the snow-to-streamflow signal. First, we use the ERA5-Land reanalysis gridded product (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis 5 -Land component) for 4,655 hydrologic unit code - 10 (HUC10) mountain basins across the western United States (US) for water years 1987–2024. Linear regressions are performed for peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and annual streamflow for each mountain basin. Models use ordinary least squares in Python’s statsmodels package. After which, an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)–weighted ensemble multiple linear regression (MLR) framework with 47 watershed traits is used to predict the linear regression coefficient of determination (r-squared) defining the ability of peak SWE to predict annual streamflow across all mountain basin. Predictor sets are constrained to avoid multicollinearity by excluding models with variance inflation factors (VIF) greater than 5. Mountain basin traits included in the MLR include seasonal climate, topography, vegetation type and structure, and bedrock geology. Accepted models are considered if their AIC is within 2.0 of the model with the minimum AIC, or best model. To compare predictor influence across acceptable models, we computed standardized regression coefficients. To evaluate structural redundancy among models, we constructed binary inclusion vectors for each acceptable model, denoting whether a predictor was present (1) or absent (0). Core predictor variables are defined as occurring in at least 67% of the acceptable models. For this regional analysis, only one model was found acceptable, with higher snow-to-streamflow translation (higher r-squared) occurring in colder mountain basins with higher relative winter precipitation, more snow accumulation and a lower fraction of annual precipitation that falls in the spring and summer. The second component of the data package uses previously published, high-resolution output from an integrated hydrological model of the East River watershed using the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater and Surface water Flow model (GSFLOW, doi:10.15485/1998576). East River MLR expands upon the approach described above to explore the response of five streamflow metrics—annual streamflow, runoff efficiency, 7-day minimum flow, low-flow duration, and non-perennial stream fraction to snow system indicators including peak SWE, snow-covered area, snow disappearance date, and the fraction of basin area characterized by low-to-no snow, as well as seasonal precipitation and temperature, and annual hydrologic variables representing soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), the partitioning of incoming precipitation to evapotranspiration (ET/P), groundwater storage, and groundwater inflow to streams. MLR was done on all water years (P0: 1987-2024) and for each period as determined in the split analysis using pooled regression techniques (P1: 1987-2011 and P2: 2012-2024) to evaluate shifting predictor variable emphasis on streamflow generation. Results indicate that since 2012, peak SWE has lost statistical strength in its prediction of annual streamflow and runoff efficiency, and the indirect influence of spring temperature has emerged as critically important. Low-flow metrics remain largely influenced by soil moisture, vegetation water use and groundwater inflows with summer precipitation becoming a direct influence on minimum summer flow. Together, these data and Python-based analysis tools provide a framework for identifying the key watershed characteristics that control how streamflow responds to snow from year to year. The package also helps quantify uncertainty in statistical models and assess how snow–streamflow relationships vary across regions and over time. This dataset contains comma-separated values files (.csv), text files (.txt), python code files (.py), figure files (.png), and shapefiles (.cpg, .dbf, .prj, .sbn, .sbx, .shp, .xml). Further details on file contents and MLR execution can be found in the readme file and the FLMD files. Work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ground surface temperature derived Snow Cover Properties, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2019-2023

Snow-ground interface temperatures have been collected at the Teller mile marker 27 and Kougarok mile marker 64 field sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska from 2019 through 2023 (with data missing from Fall 2020 through Summer 2021 due to COVID). Temperatures were measured using iButton Link DS1921G-F5# Thermochron miniature temperature sensors and Tinytag TGP-4017 internal sensors deployed across the Kougarok 64 and Teller 27 field sites. These sensors are a cost-efficient way to collect snow-ground interface temperatures at a high spatial resolution, and when paired with air temperature data these measurements can provide insight into fine-scale variability in snowpack characteristics across the study sites. From this data, snow process metrics were calculated at each sensor location based on the methods outlined in Staub and Delaloye, 2017. Metrics are calculated daily for each sensor as well as over the entire season. These metrics include ground surface temperature (°C), the number of days under snow cover (number of days), the insulation effect of snow (unitless), the length of the transitional snow periods (number of days), as well as intermediaries such as temperature variability. Calculating these snow processes relies on the assumption that when snow covers a temperature sensor, it is buffered from diurnal fluctuations in air temperature by the insulating snow layer. More information on the calculated metrics can be found in the User Guide of this dataset, as well as in Staub and Delaloye’s 2017 publication Using Near-Surface Ground Temperature Data to Derive Snow Insulation and Melt Indices for Mountain Permafrost Applications. This dataset includes one daily and one seasonal *.csv file of metrics for every year of data, a daily and a seasonal *.csv data dictionary, and one User Guide document (*.pdf) describing data collection and processing.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-resolution mountain topography can inform global snow vulnerability estimates

Snow is changing globally. Computationally intensive snow reanalysis products and downscaled climate model projections allow for the estimation of historical and projected changes in snow over ∼4–10 km resolutions, but these resolutions are coarse relative to the scales needed for water supply and flood planning. Fine-scale digital elevation models (DEMs) are widely available but are underutilized to make first-order assessments of snow vulnerability. Here, we leverage DEMs at a 7.5 arc s (∼250 m) resolution, combining these with historical freezing level height estimates from ERA-5 to derive estimates of changes in the snow-receiving area (SRA) and its variability across global mountain ranges. Results show estimated SRA declines in 29% (1.9 million km2) of the global mountain area from 1982–2020; 66% of the mountainous areas had no change over the historical period. At +1.5 °C of warming relative to the pre-industrial control, global mountain SRA would decline by 9.5% (1.0 million km2) relative to recent conditions. This loss would be approximately doubled with +2 °C of warming. In a +4 °C warming scenario, an additional 34% (3.6 million km2) of SRA would be lost beyond the +2 °C case. Across individual mountain ranges, SRA losses can occur nonlinearly with warming, with some locations that have historically had relatively minor SRA losses at risk of substantially larger losses in warmer climates. Analysis using coarser-resolution DEMs can underestimate or overestimate SRA and its rate of loss, with the largest impacts in relatively warm, low-elevation mountain ranges. Results of this work provide estimates of projected loss in SRA at policy-relevant warming levels; inform the resolutions needed for process-based snow modeling; identify snow vulnerability hotspots; and provide a new integrated approach to snow vulnerability assessment that is achievable at global scales and highlights potential nonlinearities from recent trends to a variety of future warming scenarios.

climate, mountains↗