Behavioral responses to spring snow conditions contribute to long-term shift in migration phenology in American robins
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Ruth Y Oliver↗
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The effect of snow cover on the climate
Large-scale snow cover anomalies are thought to cause significant changes in the diabatic heating of the earth's surface in such a way as to produce substantial local cooling in the surface temperatures. This theory was tested using the GISS 3D GCM (General Circulation Model). The results of the GCM experiment showed that snow cover caused only a short term local decrease in the surface temperature. In the surface energy budget, reduction in absorbed shortwave radiation and the increased latent heat sink of melting snow contributed to lower temperatures. However, all the remaining heating terms contribute to increasing the net heating over a snow covered surface. The results emphasize the negative feedback which limits the impact of snow cover anomalies over longer time scales.
Cohen, Judah↗
Passive microwave applications to snowpack monitoring using satellite data
Nimbus-5 Electrically Scanned Microwave Radiometer data were analyzed for the fall of 1975 and winter and summer of 1976 over the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska to determine the applicability of those data to snowpack monitoring. It was found that when the snow depth remained constant at 12.7 cm, the brightness temperatures T sub B varied with air temperature. During April and May the production of ice lenses and layers within the snow, and possibly wet ground beneath the snow contribute to the T sub B variations also. Comparison of March T sub B values of three areas with the same (12.7 cm) snow depth showed that air temperature is the predominant factor controlling the T sub B differences among the three areas, but underlying surface conditions and individual snowpack characteristics are also significant factors.
Hall, D. K.↗
Contribution of Lake-Effect Snow to the Catskill Mountains Snowpack
Meltwater from snow that falls in the Catskill Mountains in southern New York contributes to reservoirs that supply drinking water to approximately nine million people in New York City. Using the NOAA National Ice Centers Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) 4km snow maps, we have identified at least 32 lake-effect (LE) storms emanating from Lake Erie andor Lake Ontario that deposited snow in the CatskillDelaware Watershed in the Catskill Mountains of southern New York State between 2004 and 2017. This represents a large underestimate of the contribution of LE snow to the Catskills snowpack because many of the LE snowstorms are not visible in the IMS snow maps when they travel over snow-covered terrain. Most of the LE snowstorms that we identified originate from Lake Ontario but quite a few originate from both Erie and Ontario, and a few from Lake Erie alone. Using satellite, meteorological and reanalysis data we identify conditions that contributed to LE snowfall in the Catskills. Clear skies following some of the storms permitted measurement of the extent of snow cover in the watershed using multiple satellite sensors. IMS maps tend to overestimate the extent of snow compared to MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat-derived snow-cover extent maps. Using this combination of satellite and meteorological data, we can begin to quantify the important contribution of LE snow to the Catskills Mountain snowpack. Changes that are predicted in LE snowfall from the Great Lakes could impact the distribution of rain vs snow in the Catskills which may affect future reservoir operations in the NYC Water Supply System.
Lake Ontario↗
Predicting Hydrological Drought: Relative Contributions of Soil Moisture and Snow Information to Seasonal Streamflow Prediction Skill
in this study we examine how knowledge of mid-winter snow accumulation and soil moisture conditions contribute to our ability to predict streamflow months in advance. A first "synthetic truth" analysis focuses on a series of numerical experiments with multiple sophisticated land surface models driven with a dataset of observations-based meteorological forcing spanning multiple decades and covering the continental United States. Snowpack information by itself obviously contributes to the skill attained in streamflow prediction, particularly in the mountainous west. The isolated contribution of soil moisture information, however, is found to be large and significant in many areas, particularly in the west but also in region surrounding the Great Lakes. The results are supported by a supplemental, observations-based analysis using (naturalized) March-July streamflow measurements covering much of the western U.S. Additional forecast experiments using start dates that span the year indicate a strong seasonality in the skill contributions; soil moisture information, for example, contributes to kill at much longer leads for forecasts issued in winter than for those issued in summer.
Koster, R.↗
Dust on Snow Radiative Forcing and Contribution to Melt in the Colorado River Basin
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Patrick Naple↗
The Contribution of Soil Moisture Information to Forecast Skill: Two Studies
This talk briefly describes two recent studies on the impact of soil moisture information on hydrological and meteorological prediction. While the studies utilize soil moisture derived from the integration of large-scale land surface models with observations-based meteorological data, the results directly illustrate the potential usefulness of satellite-derived soil moisture information (e.g., from SMOS and SMAP) for applications in prediction. The first study, the GEWEX- and ClIVAR-sponsored GLACE-2 project, quantifies the contribution of realistic soil moisture initialization to skill in subseasonal forecasts of precipitation and air temperature (out to two months). The multi-model study shows that soil moisture information does indeed contribute skill to the forecasts, particularly for air temperature, and particularly when the initial local soil moisture anomaly is large. Furthermore, the skill contributions tend to be larger where the soil moisture initialization is more accurate, as measured by the density of the observational network contributing to the initialization. The second study focuses on streamflow prediction. The relative contributions of snow and soil moisture initialization to skill in streamflow prediction at seasonal lead, in the absence of knowledge of meteorological anomalies during the forecast period, were quantified with several land surface models using uniquely designed numerical experiments and naturalized streamflow data covering mUltiple decades over the western United States. In several basins, accurate soil moisture initialization is found to contribute significant levels of predictive skill. Depending on the date of forecast issue, the contributions can be significant out to leads of six months. Both studies suggest that improvements in soil moisture initialization would lead to increases in predictive skill. The relevance of SMOS and SMAP satellite-based soil moisture information to prediction are discussed in the context of these studies.
Koster, Randal↗
HIMALA: Climate Impacts on Glaciers, Snow, and Hydrology in the Himalayan Region
Glaciers are the largest reservoir of freshwater on Earth, supporting one third of the world s population. The Himalaya possess one of the largest resources of snow and ice, which act as a freshwater reservoir for more than 1.3 billion people. This article describes a new project called HIMALA, which focuses on utilizing satellite-based products for better understanding of hydrological processes of the river basins of the region. With support from the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), together with its partners and member countries, has been working on the application of satellite-based rainfall estimates for flood prediction. The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) partners are working with ICIMOD to incorporate snowmelt and glacier melt into a widely used hydrological model. Thus, through improved modeling of the contribution of snow and ice meltwater to river flow in the region, the HIMALA project will improve the ability of ICIMOD and its partners to understand the impact of weather and climate on floods, droughts, and other water- and climate-induced natural hazards in the Himalayan region in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan.
Brown, Molly Elizabeth↗
EPIC Spectral Observations of Variability in Earth's Global Reflectance
NASA’s Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) onboard NOAA’s Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite observes the entire sunlit Earth every 65 to 110 min from the Sun–Earth Lagrangian L1 point. This paper presents initial EPIC shortwave spectral observations of the sunlit Earth reflectance and analyses of its diurnal and seasonal variations. The results show that the reflectance depends mostly on (1) the ratio between land and ocean areas exposed to the Sun and (2) cloud spatial and temporal distributions over the sunlit side of Earth. In particular, the paper shows that (a) diurnal variations of the Earth’s reflectance are determined mostly by periodic changes in the land–ocean fraction of its the sunlit side; (b) the daily reflectance displays clear seasonal variations that are significant even without including the contributions from snow and ice in the polar regions (which can enhance daily mean reflectances by up to 2 to 6% in winter and up to 1 to 4% in summer); (c) the seasonal variations of the sunlit Earth reflectance are mostly determined by the latitudinal distribution of oceanic clouds.
Spectral Reflectance↗
Sentinel-1 Snow Depth Assimilation to Improve River Discharge Estimates in the Western European Alps
Seasonal snow is an important water source and contributor to river discharge in mountainous regions. Therefore the amount of snow and its distribution are necessary inputs for hydrological modeling. Recent research has shown the potential of the Sentinel-1 radar satellite to map snow depth (SD) at sub-kilometer resolution in mountainous regions. In this study we assimilate these new SD retrievals into the Noah-Multiparameterization land surface model using an ensemble Kalman filter for the western European Alps. The land surface model was coupled to the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP), a global flow routing scheme that provides simulations of routed river discharge. The performance with different precipitation forcing inputs, namely MERRA-2 (with and without gauge based correction) and ERA5, was compared based on in situ precipitation and SD stations, with ERA5 leading to the best SD performance. The Sentinel-1 based data assimilation (DA) results show small but systematic improvements for SD estimates, with the mean absolute error reducing from 36.4 cm for the open loop (OL) to 35.6 cm for the DA across all stations and timesteps, improving 318 out of 516 in situ sites. The DA updates in SD also result in enhanced snow water equivalent and discharge simulations. The median temporal correlation between discharge simulations and measurements increases from 0.73 to 0.78 for the DA. This study demonstrates the utility of the Sentinel-1 SD retrievals to improve not only the representation of snow in mountain ranges, but also the snow melt contribution to river discharge, and hydrological modeling in general.
Isis Brangers↗
Snowcover influence on backscattering from terrain
The effects of snowcover on the microwave backscattering from terrain in the 8-35 GHz region are examined through the analysis of experimental data and by application of a semiempirical model. The model accounts for surface backscattering contributions by the snow-air and snow-soil interfaces, and for volume backscattering contributions by the snow layer. Through comparisons of backscattering data for different terrain surfaces measured both with and without snowcover, the masking effects of snow are evaluated as a function of snow water equivalent and liquid water content. The results indicate that with dry snowcover it is not possible to discriminate between different types of ground surface (concrete, asphalt, grass, and bare ground) if the snow water equivalent is greater than about 20 cm (or a depth greater than 60 cm for a snow density of 0.3 g/cu cm). For the same density, however, if the snow is wet, a depth of 10 cm is sufficient to mask the underlying surface.
Ulaby, F. T.↗
Modeling the influence of hypsometry, vegetation, and storm energy on snowmelt contributions to basins during rain‐on‐snow floods
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Nicholas E. Wayand↗
LS3MIP (v1.0) Contribution to CMIP6: The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project Aims, Setup and Expected Outcome.
The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP) is designed to provide a comprehensive assessment of land surface, snow, and soil moisture feedbacks on climate variability and climate change, and to diagnose systematic biases in the land modules of current Earth System Models (ESMs). The solid and liquid water stored at the land surface has a large influence on the regional climate, its variability and predictability, including effects on the energy, water and carbon cycles. Notably, snow and soil moisture affect surface radiation and flux partitioning properties, moisture storage and land surface memory. They both strongly affect atmospheric conditions, in particular surface air temperature and precipitation, but also large-scale circulation patterns. However, models show divergent responses and representations of these feedbacks as well as systematic biases in the underlying processes. LS3MIP will provide the means to quantify the associated uncertainties and better constrain climate change projections, which is of particular interest for highly vulnerable regions (densely populated areas, agricultural regions, the Arctic, semi-arid and other sensitive terrestrial ecosystems).The experiments are subdivided in two components, the first addressing systematic land biases in offline mode (LMIP, building upon the 3rd phase of Global Soil Wetness Project; GSWP3) and the second addressing land feedbacks attributed to soil moisture and snow in an integrated framework (LFMIP, building upon the GLACE-CMIP blueprint).
atmospheric temperature↗
Surface and Atmospheric Contributions to Passive Microwave Brightness Temperatures for Falling Snow Events
Physically based passive microwave precipitation retrieval algorithms require a set of relationships between satellite -observed brightness temperatures (TBs) and the physical state of the underlying atmosphere and surface. These relationships are nonlinear, such that inversions are ill ]posed especially over variable land surfaces. In order to elucidate these relationships, this work presents a theoretical analysis using TB weighting functions to quantify the percentage influence of the TB resulting from absorption, emission, and/or reflection from the surface, as well as from frozen hydrometeors in clouds, from atmospheric water vapor, and from other contributors. The percentage analysis was also compared to Jacobians. The results are presented for frequencies from 10 to 874 GHz, for individual snow profiles, and for averages over three cloud-resolving model simulations of falling snow. The bulk structure (e.g., ice water path and cloud depth) of the underlying cloud scene was found to affect the resultant TB and percentages, producing different values for blizzard, lake effect, and synoptic snow events. The slant path at a 53 viewing angle increases the hydrometeor contributions relative to nadir viewing channels. Jacobians provide the magnitude and direction of change in the TB values due to a change in the underlying scene; however, the percentage analysis provides detailed information on how that change affected contributions to the TB from the surface, hydrometeors, and water vapor. The TB percentage information presented in this paper provides information about the relative contributions to the TB and supplies key pieces of information required to develop and improve precipitation retrievals over land surfaces.
Skofronick-Jackson, Gail↗
Contributions of irrigation modeling, soil moisture and snow data assimilation to high-resolution water budget estimates over the Po basin: progress towards digital replicas
High-resolution water budget estimates benefit from modeling of human water management and satellite data assimilation (DA) in river basins with a large human footprint. Utilizing the Noah-MP land surface model with dynamic vegetation growth and river routing, in combination with an irrigation module, Sentinel-1 backscatter and snow depth retrievals, we produce a set of 0.7-km2 water budget estimates of the Po river basin (Italy) for 2015–2023. The results demonstrate that irrigation modeling improves the seasonal soil moisture variation and summer streamflow at all gauges in the valley after withdrawal of irrigation water from the streamflow in postprocessing (12% error reduction relative to observed low summer streamflow), even if the basin-wide irrigation amount is underestimated. Sentinel-1 backscatter DA for soil moisture updating strongly interacts with irrigation modeling: when both are activated, the soil moisture updates are limited, and the simulated irrigation amounts are reduced. Backscatter DA systematically reduces soil moisture in the spring, which improves downstream spring streamflow. Assimilating Sentinel-1 snow depth retrievals over the surrounding Alps and Apennines further improves spring streamflow in a complementary way (2% error reduction relative to observed high spring streamflow). Despite the seasonal improvements, irrigation modeling and Sentinel-1 backscatter DA cannot significantly improve short-term or interannual variations in soil moisture, irrigation modeling causes a systematically prolonged high vegetation productivity, and snow depth DA only impacts the deep snowpacks. This study helps advancing the design of digital water budget replicas for river basins.
Gabrielle J M De Lannoy↗
Seasonal variation of cloud radiative forcing derived from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment
The impact of clouds on the earth's radiation balance is assessed in terms of longwave, shortwave, and net cloud forcing by using monthly averaged clear-sky and cloudy-sky flux data derived from the NASA Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). Emphasis is placed on regional measurements, regional cloud forcing, zonal cloud forcing, and snow and ice contributions. It is shown that the global mean cooling varied from 14 to 21 W/sq m between April 1985 and January 1986; hemispherically, the longwave and shortwave cloud forcing nearly cancel each other in the winter hemisphere, while in the summer the negative shortwave cloud forcing is significantly lower than the longwave cloud forcing, producing a strong cooling. The ERBE data reveal that globally, hemispherically, and zonally, clouds have a significant effect on the radiative heating gradients.
Harrison, E. F.↗
Contribution of Soil Moisture Information to Streamflow Prediction in the Snowmelt Season: A Continental-Scale Analysis
In areas dominated by winter snowcover, the prediction of streamflow during the snowmelt season may benefit from three pieces of information: (i) the accurate prediction of weather variability (precipitation, etc.) leading up to and during the snowmelt season, (ii) estimates of the amount of snow present during the winter season, and (iii) estimates of the amount of soil moisture underlying the snowpack during the winter season. The importance of accurate meteorological predictions and wintertime snow estimates is obvious. The contribution of soil moisture to streamflow prediction is more subtle yet potentially very important. If the soil is dry below the snowpack, a significant fraction of the snowmelt may be lost to streamflow and potential reservoir storage, since it may infiltrate the soil instead for later evaporation. Such evaporative losses are presumably smaller if the soil below the snowpack is wet. In this paper, we use a state-of-the-art land surface model to quantify the contribution of wintertime snow and soil moisture information -- both together and separately -- to skill in forecasting springtime streamflow. We find that soil moisture information indeed contributes significantly to streamflow prediction skill.
Reichle, Rolf↗
Additional Contributions to the Development of the New Snow-Physics Scheme for SSiB
The Simplified Simple Biosphere Model (SSiB) had a well-documented problem with snowmelt timing and infiltration. A new snow-physics scheme was developed for use in SSIB. In this, the snow layer is separated from the soil, with its own energy budget and temperature. Solar energy reaching the top of the snowpack is divided into three parts: one, reflected by the snow; two, absorbed by the snow; and three, transmitted to the ground following a simple extinction relation. Heat is exchanged between the ground and snow by conduction and by radiation through an arbitrary air-gap between them. In the GSWP exercise using the GEWEX ISLSCP Initiative I forcing data (hereafter "offline"), it was found that the new snow scheme ameliorated a significant fraction of snowmelt time-delay as compared to observations from satellite. It also produced warmer ground temperatures under the snowpack, which allowed realistic meltwater infiltration, resulting in better simulated spring soil moisture recharge and peak runoff amount as compared to observations. An ensemble of six June-July-August (JJA) simulations for 1987 and 1988 were performed with the NASA Goddard GEOS II GCM coupled with the new snow-physics SSIB using new initial soil moisture (ISM) from the offline simulations. The GCM produced more realistic precipitation in northern regions that had large snowmelt and wetter ISM in response to better snow-physics, as compared to simulations with ISM without the new snow scheme. The new SSiB-GCM also increased the interannual precipitation signal in the Indian monsoon region, resulting from changes in ISM in the Himalayas and central Asia.
Mocko, David M.↗