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At least 19 records

An Application of a Modified Beta Factor Method for the Analysis of Software Common Cause Failures

This paper presents an approach for modeling software common cause failures (CCFs) within digital instrumentation and control (I&C) systems. CCFs consist of a concurrent failure between two or more components due to a shared failure cause and coupling mechanism. This work emphasizes the importance of identifying software-centric attributes related to the coupling mechanisms necessary for simultaneous failures of redundant software components. The groups of components that share coupling mechanisms are called common cause component groups (CCCGs). Most CCF models rely on operational data as the basis for establishing CCCG parameters and predicting CCFs. This work is motivated by two primary concerns: (1) a lack of operational and CCF data for estimating software CCF model parameters; and (2) the need to model single components as part of multiple CCCGs simultaneously. A hybrid approach was developed to account for these concerns by leveraging existing techniques: a modified beta factor model allows single components to be placed within multiple CCCGs, while a second technique provides software-specific model parameters for each CCCG. This hybrid approach provides a means to overcome the limitations of conventional methods while offering support for design decisions under the limited data scenario.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Application of Orthogonal Defect Classification for Software Reliability Analysis

The modernization of existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C) is a recent and highly trending topic. However, there lacks strong consensus on best-estimate reliability methodologies by both the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the industry. This has resulted in hesitation for further modernization projects until a more unified methodology is realized. In this work, we develop an approach called Orthogonal-defect Classification for Assessing Software Reliability (ORCAS) to quantify probabilities of various software failure modes in a DI&C system. The method utilizes accepted industry methodologies for software quality assurance that are also verified by experimental or mathematical formulations. In essence, the approach combines a semantic failure classification model with a reliability growth model to predict (and quantify) the potential failure modes of a DI&C software system. The semantic classification model is used to address the question: How do latent defects in software contribute to different software failure root causes? The use of reliability growth models is then used to address the question: Given the connection between latent defects and software failure root causes, how can we quantify the reliability of the software? A case study was conducted on a representative I&C platform (ChibiOS) running a smart sensor acquisition software developed by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU). The testing and evidence collection guidance in ORCAS was applied, and defects were uncovered in the software. Qualitative evidence, such as condition coverage, was used to gauge the completeness and trustworthiness of the assessment while quantitative evidence was used to determine the software failure probabilities. The reliability of the software was then estimated and compared to existing operational data of the sensor device. It is demonstrated that by using ORCAS, a semantic reasoning framework can be developed to justify if the software is reliable (or unreliable) while still leveraging the strength of the existing methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Application of Orthogonal Defect Classification for Software Reliability Analysis

The modernization of existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C) is a recent and highly trending topic. However, there lacks strong consensus on best-estimate reliability methodologies by both the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the industry. This has resulted in hesitation for further modernization projects until a more unified methodology is realized. In this work, we develop an approach called Orthogonal-defect Classification for Assessing Software Reliability (ORCAS) to quantify probabilities of various software failure modes in a DI&C system. The method utilizes accepted industry methodologies for software quality assurance that are also verified by experimental or mathematical formulations. In essence, the approach combines a semantic failure classification model with a reliability growth model to predict (and quantify) the potential failure modes of a DI&C software system. The semantic classification model is used to address the question: How do latent defects in software contribute to different software failure root causes? The use of reliability growth models is then used to address the question: Given the connection between latent defects and software failure root causes, how can we quantify the reliability of the software? A case study was conducted on a representative I&C platform (ChibiOS) running a smart sensor acquisition software developed by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU). The testing and evidence collection guidance in ORCAS was applied, and defects were uncovered in the software. Qualitative evidence, such as condition coverage, was used to gauge the completeness and trustworthiness of the assessment while quantitative evidence was used to determine the software failure probabilities. The reliability of the software was then estimated and compared to existing operational data of the sensor device. It is demonstrated that by using ORCAS, a semantic reasoning framework can be developed to justify software reliability (or unreliability) while still leveraging the strength of the existing methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Analyzing Hardware and Software Common Cause Failures in Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems using Dual Error Propagation Method

This paper develops a methodology for quantifying software common cause failures (CCFs) in digital instrumentation and control (I&C) systems of nuclear power plants. To support the transition of analog I&C systems to digital in nuclear power plants, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques are used. The hardware components of the I&C systems have reliability databases that can be used in the PRA studies. However, the failure data for redundant software components of the systems is sparse. Failure of components constitutes a CCF, wherein two or more components or systems fail due to a single shared cause and coupling mechanism. This paper proposes a quantification approach that can simultaneously model hardware and software components, incorporate the CCFs of software systems in the models, and bridge the gap between the failure quantification of models and the development of CCF parametric databases. We demonstrate the dual error propagation method (DEPM) by developing I&C systems failure models for a representative digital reactor trip system. The DEPM models are built to simulate the control and data flows within the systems and can accommodate failure states. By expanding DEPM to software CCFs, we generated alpha factor parameter estimates for each of the modeled error propagation mechanisms.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Design Methods, Tools, and Data for Ceramic Solar Receivers

This report presents the development of tools and methods for evaluating the reliability and performance of ceramic materials in high temperature solar receivers. As Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies aim for higher operating temperatures to enhance efficiency and meet industrial process heat requirements, current high temperature metallic materials face challenges in maintaining structural integrity. This report explores advanced ceramics as a promising alternative, given their superior high temperature strength and lower thermal expansion, compared to metals. To address the need for effective ceramic receiver design tools, this report integrates statistical failure models of ceramics into the existing srlife tool: an open-source software package designed to estimate the life of high temperature CSP components. These failure models account for the inherent variability and flaw distribution in ceramics, as well as the impact of subcritical crack growth under high temperature cyclic loads. The report also presents experimental data collected for a commercially available ceramic material, SiC, and details the process of estimating reliability model parameters from these data. A comparative design analysis is then performed between ceramic (SiC) and metallic (current nickel-based superalloys A740H and A282) receiver. This comparison demonstrates that SiC receivers can achieve service life exceeding 30 years under high incident heat flux conditions, compared to just a few years for metallic receivers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

An Advanced Meso-Scale Peridynamic Modeling Technology using High-Performance Computing for Cost-Effective Product Design and Testing of Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer Composites in Light-weight Vehicles

We study a peridynamic composite modeling technology based on the discontinuous Galerkin finite element method, implemented in the commercial LS-DYNA software, for modeling and prediction of failure in carbon fiber reinforced polymer composites. The proposed technology is developed for the material failure analysis at the meso-scale, which provides the prevailing fiber-matrix interaction mechanism, without adoption of the representative volume element method and thus avoiding complicated numerical calibration procedures. Three types of experimental tests—in-plane coupon test, out-of-plane coupon test, and a component crash test—are simulated in a high-performance computing environment to assess the performance of the proposed peridynamic composite modeling technology.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DECIDER

This software offers methods and functions for building failure detectors for deep image classification models with the aid of vision-language models and LLMs. It includes functionalities for training baseline image classifiers, debiasing classifiers using vision-language models and LLMs, evaluating failure between models along with baselines. Developed using PyTorch, this software is compatible with standard neural network architectures used for imaging data. Additionally, it provides capabilities to compute evaluation metrics for assessing the performance and quality of the detectors.

Narayanaswamy, Vivek Sivaraman↗

Prediction of Thermal Conditions of DED With FEA Metal Additive Simulation

This paper presents the integration of wire-arc additive manufacturing (WAAM) using Gas Metal Arc Welding (GMAW) into a machine tool to create a retrofit hybrid computer numeric control (CNC) machine tool. GMAW, along with other direct energy deposition systems, has the capacity to deposit material faster than the excess thermal energy can dissipate. This results in the need to allow the part to cool between consecutive layers, which is the most time-consuming part of the additive process. Finite element analysis (FEA) was used in conjunction with monitored build plate surface temperatures during deposition samples to improve adequate dwell time prediction and to develop a cooling system. A deposition was completed where no dwell time was used and the build plate along with the machine table temperatures were monitored. A second deposition was completed where only one bead was deposited and the traverse speed was increased. The GMAW welder was mounted on a 3-axis CNC machine where two square deposition samples were completed. A FEA model was designed and verified using the monitored samples. The model will be used to determine improved depositions speeds and whether forced cooling would allow for an increased deposition rate without structural failure. It was determined the FEA software can be used to accurately model and predict the thermal response of WAAM AM components.

Heinrich, Lauren↗

Dynamic PRA-Based Estimation of PWR Coping Time Using a Surrogate Model for Accident Tolerant Fuel

In this study, we propose an interpolation-based response surface surrogate methodology to manage a large number of scenarios in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment. It adopts the shape Dynamic Time Warping algorithm to cluster the interpolation neighborhood from time series sample data. The interpolation method was adapted from Taylor Kriging to allow a reduced-order model of the Taylor series. In order to demonstrate its applicability to complex issues in risk assessment for nuclear engineering, an example risk response surface to estimate emergency core cooling system (ECCS) criteria for triplex silicon carbide (SiC) accident-tolerant fuel was constructed. The response surface was exploited to estimate the cumulative failure probability of the fuel cladding structure due to the uncertainties in operator actions and safety systems. The functional failures were assessed based on a combination of individual layer failures computed by coupling Risk Analysis Virtual Environment software with a pressurized water reactor 1000-MW(electric) RELAP5 model and the in-house fuel performance assessment module. Results showed that SiC cladding failure probability spiked less than 1 min after a large-break loss-of- coolant accident whenever the current ECCS criteria for Zircaloy-4 (Zr-4) cladding was used. However, it still provides an increased safety margin of three orders of magnitude compared to Zr-4. This positive margin could be utilized to relax active ECCS requirements by allowing deviations of up to 450 s in its actuation time. The proposed surrogate methodology generated a response surface of SiC cladding failure probability reasonably well, with a significant savings of computation time. This methodology is expected to be useful in the analysis of system response with complex uncertainty sources.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Exploratory Investigation of Disengagements and Crashes in Autonomous Vehicles Under Mixed Traffic: An Endogenous Switching Regime Framework

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) have a large potential to improve traffic safety but also pose some critical challenges. While AVs may help reduce crashes caused by human error, they still may experience failures of technologies and sensing, as well as decision-making errors in a mixed traffic environment. A disengagement refers to an AV transitioning control from autonomous systems to the trained test driver. The safety critical nature of disengagements makes it imperative to analyze disengagements and crashes together. In this study, we analyze both crashes and disengagements from real-world AV driving in California to fill the knowledge gap regarding the relationship between disengagements and crashes in a mixed traffic environment. A nested logit model was calibrated using three different outcomes: (1) disengagement with a crash, (2) disengagement with no crash, and (3) no disengagement with a crash. Furthermore, endogenous switching regime models were also calibrated to draw distinctions between the relation of disengagements and crashes while accounting for endogeneity effects. The results show that factors related to AV systems (such as software failures) and other roadway participants increase the propensity of a disengagement without a crash. Furthermore, AVs were observed to disengage less often as the technology matured over time. Marginal effects revealed an 8% decrease. The results thus suggest that disengagements are a part of AVs' safe performance and disengagement alerts may need to be triggered in order to avoid certain failures with current technology.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Monitoring and Repair of Cement-Geomaterial Interfaces in Borehole and Repository Scenarios

The failure of subsurface seals (i.e., wellbores, shaft and drift seals in a deep geologic nuclear waste repository) has important implications for US Energy Security. The performance of these cementitious seals is controlled by a combination of chemical and mechanical forces, which are coupled processes that occur over multiple length scales. The goal of this work is to improve fundamental understanding of cement-geomaterial interfaces and develop tools and methodologies to characterize and predict performance of subsurface seals. This project utilized a combined experimental and modeling approach to better understand failure at cement-geomaterial interfaces. Cutting-edge experimental methods and characterization methods were used to understand evolution of the material properties during chemo-mechanical alteration of cement-geomaterial interfaces. Software tools were developed to model chemo-mechanical coupling and predict the complex interplay between reactive transport and solid mechanics. Novel, fit-for-purpose materials were developed and tested using fundamental understanding of failure processes at cement-geomaterial interfaces.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Advanced Monitoring and Control in the ANL METL Facility Using an Engineering Digital Twin

The potential benefits of using an engineering digital twin to achieve greater autonomy for monitoring and control functions in advanced reactors was investigated for the Mechanisms Engineering Test Loop (METL) liquid sodium facility at Argonne National Laboratory. The METL sodium purification system served as a representative system as it requires significant human in-the-loop interaction to accomplish its design function. The objective was to demonstrate how real-time operation could be automated while preserving oversight of the operator for ensuring that the system design functions are met. A digital twin model of the purification system was developed for both the cold trap purification loop and plugging meter diagnostic loop using information from the METL piping and instrumentation diagram (P&ID). Automated monitoring and diagnosis of component degradation in the METL facility was demonstrated in tests using the PRO-AID health monitoring software with the digital twin model incorporated in the library of components. Component failures were introduced and were successfully diagnosed in real time. These tests serve to demonstrate an advanced monitoring capability able to differentiate sensor degradation from component degradation, to generate a rank ordering of probabilities of different failure mechanisms that serves to circumvent the false alarm problem with current anomaly detection methods, and how facility monitoring can be transformed from anomaly detection to identification of a specific fault. Automated control of the purification system was demonstrated through simulations that exercised a model predictive controller designed using the digital twin model. Results of these simulations compared favorably with experimental data showing very good reference tracking response with negligible overshoot. In conclusion, these pilot tests and simulations successfully demonstrated the use of a digital twin for improved automation of monitoring and control. It was shown how the digital twin enables switching between control modes from cold trap operation where impurities are removed to plugging meter operation where impurity concentrations are measured.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Surrogate Models for Estimating Failure in Brittle and Quasi-Brittle Materials

In brittle fracture applications, failure paths, regions where the failure occurs and damage statistics, are some of the key quantities of interest (QoI). High-fidelity models for brittle failure that accurately predict these QoI exist but are highly computationally intensive, making them infeasible to incorporate in upscaling and uncertainty quantification frameworks. The goal of this paper is to provide a fast heuristic to reasonably estimate quantities such as failure path and damage in the process of brittle failure. Towards this goal, we first present a method to predict failure paths under tensile loading conditions and low-strain rates. The method uses a k-nearest neighbors algorithm built on fracture process zone theory, and identifies the set of all possible pre-existing cracks that are likely to join early to form a large crack. The method then identifies zone of failure and failure paths using weighted graphs algorithms. We compare these failure paths to those computed with a high-fidelity fracture mechanics model called the Hybrid Optimization Software Simulation Suite (HOSS). A probabilistic evolution model for average damage in a system is also developed that is trained using 150 HOSS simulations and tested on 40 simulations. A non-parametric approach based on confidence intervals is used to determine the damage evolution over time along the dominant failure path. For upscaling, damage is the key QoI needed as an input by the continuum models. This needs to be informed accurately by the surrogate models for calculating effective moduli at continuum-scale. We show that for the proposed average damage evolution model, the prediction accuracy on the test data is more than 90%. In terms of the computational time, the proposed models are ≈ O ( 10 6 ) times faster compared to high-fidelity fracture simulations by HOSS. These aspects make the proposed surrogate model attractive for upscaling damage from micro-scale models to continuum models. We would like to emphasize that the surrogate models are not a replacement of physical understanding of fracture propagation. The proposed method in this paper is limited to tensile loading conditions at low-strain rates. This loading condition corresponds to a dominant fracture perpendicular to tensile direction. The proposed method is not applicable for in-plane shear, out-of-plane shear, and higher strain rate loading conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Peridigm Meshfree Peridynamics Code

Abstract Peridigm is a meshfree peridynamics code written in C++ for use on large-scale parallel computers. It was originally developed at Sandia National Laboratories and is currently managed as an open-source, community driven software project. Its primary features include bond-based, state-based, and non-ordinary state-based constitutive models, bond failure laws, contact, and support for explicit and implicit time integration. To date, Peridigm has been used primarily by methods developers focused on solid mechanics and material failure. Peridigm utilizes foundational software components from Sandia’s Trilinos project and was designed for extensibility. This paper provides an overview of the solution methods implemented in Peridigm , a discussion of its software infrastructure, and demonstrates the use of Peridigm for the solution of several example problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

PyPVRPM: Photovoltaic Reliability and Performance Model in Python

The ability to perform accurate techno-economic analysis of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems is essential for bankability and investment purposes. Most energy yield models assume an almost flawless operation (i.e., no failures); however, realistically, components fail and get repaired stochastically. This package, PyPVRPM, is a Python translation and improvement of the Language Kit (LK) based PhotoVoltaic Reliability Performance Model (PVRPM), which was first developed at Sandia National Laboratories in Goldsim software (Granata et al., 2011) (Miller et al., 2012). PyPVRPM allows the user to define a PV system at a specific location and incorporate failure, repair, and detection rates and distributions to calculate energy yield and other financial metrics such as the levelized cost of energy and net present value (Klise, Lavrova, et al., 2017). Our package is a simulation tool that uses NREL’s Python interface for System Advisor Model (SAM) (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2020b) (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2020a) to evaluate the performance of a PV plant throughout its lifetime by considering component reliability metrics. Besides the numerous benefits from migrating to Python (e.g., speed, libraries, batch analyses), it also expands on the failure and repair processes from the LK version by including the ability to vary monitoring strategies. These failures, repairs, and monitoring processes are based on user-defined distributions and values, enabling a more accurate and realistic representation of cost and availability throughout a PV system’s lifetime.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

RDPM: An Extensible Tool for Resilience Design Patterns Modelling

Resilience to faults, errors, and failures in extreme-scale high-performance computing (HPC) systems is a critical challenge. Resilience design patterns offer a new, structured hardware and software design approach for improving resilience. While prior work focused on developing performance, reliability, and availability models for resilience design patterns, this paper extends it by providing a Resilience Design Patterns Modeling (RDPM) tool which allows (1) exploring performance, reliability, and availability of each resilience design pattern, (2) offering customization of parameters to optimize performance, reliability, and availability, and (3) allowing investigation of trade-off models for combining multiple patterns for practical resilience solutions.

Kumar, Mohit↗

Comparative Assessment of Experimental Testing of Instrument with an Embedded Digital Device Using Model-Based and Conventional Methods

The use of digital equipment has not been widespread in U.S. nuclear facilities. A major contributing factor to this situation arises from regulatory concerns about common cause failures (CCFs) stemming from the use of identical software in redundant systems, questions as to how to quantify the reliability of software-based products, validity of tools that are used for software verification and validation (V&V), and the effectiveness of software QA procedures. Compounding the concerns are sporadic incidents of digital equipment malfunctions in nuclear power plants, including lockups resulting from software memory leaks, feedwater control malfunctions due to excessive traffic on Ethernet networks, software logic errors, and other problems leading to plant trips. Additionally, the limited amount of demonstrated research and a lack of industry consensus on quantitative software reliability methodologies has hindered the widespread adoption of digital I&C in the nuclear industry. In a recent Regulatory Issue Summary (RIS), the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) identified concerns about the impact of greater use of instrumentation and control (I&C) equipment with an embedded digital device (EDD) [1]. Specifically, the NRC staff states that increased use of such devices “may increase a facility’s vulnerability to a CCF” (i.e., common-cause failure). The prevailing NRC guidance regarding software CCF (SCCF) identifies two design attributes that are acceptable for eliminating CCF concerns: (1) diversity or (2) testability (specifically, 100% testability). Either solution can result in high costs and remaining licensing uncertainty (i.e., how much diversity is enough? how to ensure test coverage of every possible sequence of device states?). Consequently, many utilities and reactor designers have limited or avoided more extensive use of digital technology to minimize licensing, scheduling, and financial risk. Without development of cost effective qualification methods to satisfy regulatory requirements and address the potential for CCF vulnerability associated with EDDs, the nuclear power industry may not be able to realize the benefits of digital technology achieved by other industries. In order to address these challenges, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring this research to assess the prospect of CCF in digital I&C equipment. The purpose of the current research is to develop an effective approach employing science-based methods to resolve concerns about CCF vulnerability that serve to inhibit deployment of advanced instrumentation (e.g., sensors, actuators, microcontrollers) with EDDs in nuclear power applications. The research objectives address the challenge of establishing high levels of safety and reliability assurance needed for the qualification of EDDs (e.g., microprocessors, programmable logic devices) that are subject to software design faults, complex failure modes, and CCF vulnerability. Specific objectives are: (1) assess the regulatory context for treatment of CCF vulnerability a graded approach to their qualification, (3) develop and extend model-based testing methods to enable effective demonstration of whether devices are subject to CCF, which may arise from vulnerabilities introduced at any stage of the design lifecycle, (4) establish a cost-effective testing framework that incorporates automation and test scenario prioritization, and (5) demonstrate the qualification approach through selection and testing of candidate digital device(s). This report documents an assessment of the results from experimental testing of a representative instrument with an embedded digital device. The experiment serves as a proof-of-concept demonstration of a model-based testing (MBT) framework. The objective of MBT is to ensure that an EDD undergoes suitably comprehensive testing to establish that it is not subject to SCCF. The approach by which MBT accomplishes this objective is through development and application of an effective test suite that provides the appropriate coverage to detect the full range of postulated faults that may arise at the requirements, design, and code (implementation) level of the EDD software. The findings of the experiment involve the application of the MBT framework by Ohio State University (OSU) through testing of the selected demonstration instrument (i.e., the prototype smart pressure sensor developed by Virginia Commonwealth University, VCU). In addition, the experiment findings also involve application of a more conventional black-box testing approach that serves as a baseline against which the MBT methodology can be compared. The primary outcome documented in this report is the comparative analysis of the capabilities demonstrated for each method. The results of the analysis demonstrate clear benefits that arise from the MBT methodology. The comparison indicates greater effectiveness from the more comprehensive evidence available through MBT and enhanced efficiency achieved through automation within the MBT framework. The structure of the report addresses the approach and application of each test method as well as the comparative analysis of the experimental results. Chapter 2 gives a summary overview of the demonstration approach. Chapter 3 covers the baseline testing and Chapter 4 documents the model-based testing. Chapter 5 describes the findings of the comparative analysis and presents the conclusions that can be drawn about the effectiveness and efficiency of the MBT methodology.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Probabilistic Assessment of Structural Integrity

A probability-based approach, combining deterministic and probabilistic methods, was developed for analyzing building and component failures, which are especially crucial for complex structures like nuclear power plants. This method links finite element and probabilistic software to assess structural integrity under static and dynamic loads. This study uses NEPTUNE software, which is validated, for a deterministic transient analysis and ProFES software for probabilistic models. In a case study, deterministic analyses with varied random variables were transferred to ProFES for probabilistic analyses of piping failure and wall damage. A Monte Carlo Simulation, First-Order Reliability Method, and combined methods were employed for probabilistic analyses under severe transient loading, focusing on a postulated accident at the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant. The study considered uncertainties in material properties, component geometry, and loads. The results showed the Monte Carlo Simulation method to be conservative for high failure probabilities but less so for low probabilities. The Response Surface/Monte Carlo Simulation method explored the impact load–failure probability relationship. Given the uncertainties in material properties and loads in complex structures, a deterministic analysis alone is insufficient. Probabilistic analysis is imperative for extreme loading events and credible structural safety evaluations.

Mathematics↗