Using high-frequency soil oxygen sensors to predict greenhouse gas emissions from wetlands
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Ashley R. Smyth↗
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Landfill intermediate cover soil microbiomes and their potential for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions revealed through metagenomics
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Peyton H. Lienhart↗
The regulation of methane oxidation in soil
The atmospheric concentration of methane, a greenhouse gas, has more than doubled during the past 200 years. Consequently, identifying the factors influencing the flux of methane into the atmosphere is becoming increasingly important. Methanotrophs, microaerophilic organisms widespread in aerobic soils and sediments, oxidize methane to derive energy and carbon for biomass. In so doing, they play an important role in mitigating the flux of methane into the atmosphere. Several physico-chemical factors influence rates of methane oxidation in soil, including soil diffusivity; water potential; and levels of oxygen, methane, ammonium, nitrate, nitrite, and copper. Most of these factors exert their influence through interactions with methane monooxygenase (MMO), the enzyme that catalyzes the reaction converting methane to methanol, the first step in methane oxidation. Although biological factors such as competition and predation undoubtedly play a role in regulating the methanotroph population in soils, and thereby limit the amount of methane consumed by methanotrophs, the significance of these factors is unknown. Obtaining a better understanding of the ecology of methanotrophs will help elucidate the mechanisms that regulate soil methane oxidation.
Review, Academic↗
Modeling the Distribution and Type of High-Latitude Natural Wetlands for Methane Studies
High latitude (>50N) natural wetlands emit a substantial amount of methane to the atmosphere, and are located in a region of amplified warming. Northern hemisphere high latitudes are characterized by cold climates, extensive permafrost, poor drainage, short growing seasons, and slow decay rates. Under these conditions, organic carbon accumulates in the soil, sequestering CO2 from the atmosphere. Methanogens produce methane from this carbon reservoir, converting stored carbon into a powerful greenhouse gas. Methane emission from wetland ecosystems depends on vegetation type, climate characteristics (e.g, precipitation amount and seasonality, temperature, snow cover, etc.), and geophysical variables (e.g., permafrost, soil type, and landscape slope). To understand how wetland methane dynamics in this critical region will respond to climate change, we have to first understand how wetlands themselves will change and therefore, what the primary controllers of wetland distribution and type are. Understanding these relationships permits data-anchored, physically-based modeling of wetland distribution and type in other climate scenarios, such as paleoclimates or future climates, a necessary first step toward modeling wetland methane emissions in these scenarios. We investigate techniques and datasets for predicting the distribution and type of high latitude (>50N) natural wetlands from a suite of geophysical and climate predictors. Hierarchical clustering is used to derive an empirical methane-centric wetland model. The model is applied in a multistep process first to predict the distribution of wetlands from relevant geophysical parameters, and then, given the predicted wetland distribution, to classify the wetlands into methane-relevant types using an expanded suite of climate and biogeophysical variables. As the optimum set of predictor variables is not known a priori, the model is applied iteratively, and each simulation is evaluated with respect to observed high-latitude wetlands.
Romanski, Joy↗
Chapter 7: Food systems
Food systems - including food production, distribution, consumption, and waste disposal - are critical to sustaining livelihoods and delivering nutrition worldwide. However, food systems contribute significantly to the climate crisis, accounting for over 30 percent of human-caused global greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide). Climate change, in turn, has a significant and growing impact on food systems. Climate change increases heat stress and can lead to deteriorating soil health, for example, slowing agricultural productivity and reducing the nutritional content of crops and livestock. The cascading impacts of climate extremes on agricultural production are likely to destabilize global food security, endangering the livelihoods of billions of people and threatening public health.
Food systems↗
Climate Change Amplification of Natural Drought Variability: The Historic Mid-Twentieth Century North American Drought in a Warmer World
In the mid-twentieth century (1948-1957), North America experienced a severe drought forced by cold tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). If these SSTs recurred, it would likely cause another drought, but in a world substantially warmer than the one in which the original event took place. We use a 20-member ensemble of the GISS climate model to investigate the drought impacts of a repetition of the mid-twentieth century SST anomalies in a significantly warmer world. Using observed SSTs and mid-twentieth century forcings (Hist-DRGHT), the ensemble reproduces the observed precipitation deficits during the cold season (October–March) across the Southwest, Southern Plains, and Mexico and during the warm season (April–September) in the Southern Plains and the Southeast. Under analogous SST forcing and enhanced warming (Fut-DRGHT, ≈3 K above pre-industrial), cold season precipitation deficits are ameliorated in the Southwest and Southern Plains and intensified in the Southeast, while during the warm season precipitation deficits are enhanced across North America. This occurs primarily from greenhouse gas forced trends in mean precipitation, rather than changes in SST teleconnections. Cold season runoff deficits in Fut-DRGHT are significantly amplified over the Southeast, but otherwise similar to Hist-DRGHT over the Southwest and Southern Plains. In the warm season, however, runoff and soil moisture deficits during Fut-DRGHT are significantly amplified across the southern US, a consequence of enhanced precipitation deficits and increased evaporative losses due to warming. Our study highlights how internal variability and greenhouse gas forced trends in hydroclimate are likely to interact over North America, including how changes in both precipitation and evaporative demand will affect future drought.
Benjamin I Cook↗
Precipitation Measurements from Space: Why Do We Need Them?
Water is fundamental to the life on Earth and its phase transition between the gaseous, liquid, and solid states dominates the behavior of the weather/climate/ecological system. Precipitation, which converts atmospheric water vapor into rain and snow, is central to the global water cycle. It regulates the global energy balance through interactions with clouds and water vapor (the primary greenhouse gas), and also shapes global winds and dynamic transport through latent heat release. Surface precipitation affects soil moisture, ocean salinity, and land hydrology, thus linking fast atmospheric processes to the slower components of the climate system. Precipitation is also the primary source of freshwater in the world, which is facing an emerging freshwater crisis in many regions. Accurate and timely knowledge of global precipitation is essential for understanding the behavior of the global water cycle, improving freshwater management, and advancing predictive capabilities of high-impact weather events such as hurricanes, floods, droughts, and landslides. With limited rainfall networks on land and the impracticality of making extensive rainfall measurements over oceans, a comprehensive description of the space and time variability of global precipitation can only be achieved from the vantage point of space. This presentation will examine current capabilities in space-borne rainfall measurements, highlight scientific and practical benefits derived from these observations to date, and provide an overview of the multi-national Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission scheduled to be launched in the early next decade.
Hou, Arthur Y.↗
Precipitation Measurements from Space: The Global Precipitation Measurement Mission
Water is fundamental to the life on Earth and its phase transition between the gaseous, liquid, and solid states dominates the behavior of the weather/climate/ecological system. Precipitation, which converts atmospheric water vapor into rain and snow, is central to the global water cycle. It regulates the global energy balance through interactions with clouds and water vapor (the primary greenhouse gas), and also shapes global winds and dynamic transport through latent heat release. Surface precipitation affects soil moisture, ocean salinity, and land hydrology, thus linking fast atmospheric processes to the slower components of the climate system. Precipitation is also the primary source of freshwater in the world, which is facing an emerging freshwater crisis in many regions. Accurate and timely knowledge of global precipitation is essential for understanding the behavior of the global water cycle, improving freshwater management, and advancing predictive capabilities of high-impact weather events such as hurricanes, floods, droughts, and landslides. With limited rainfall networks on land and the impracticality of making extensive rainfall measurements over oceans, a comprehensive description of the space and time variability of global precipitation can only be achieved from the vantage point of space. This presentation will examine current capabilities in space-borne rainfall measurements, highlight scientific and practical benefits derived from these observations to date, and provide an overview of the multi-national Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission scheduled to bc launched in the early next decade.
Hou, Arthur Y.↗
Mapping Changes in Desert Pavement Surfaces of the Lower Colorado Desert of Southern California Using Landsat Time Series Analysis
Potential disturbance of desert soils from renewable energy development in southern California is receiving increasing attention due to potential impacts on air quality and greenhouse gas emissions. This study was designed to quantify and map, for the first time, changes in desert pavement surface area using 20 years of Landsat satellite image data across the Lower Colorado Desert. Landsat-derived maps of geomorphic surface classes from 1990 to 2014 for the Lower Colorado Desert area showed that a relatively stable area of around 1920 sq km was covered by well-developed desert pavements prior to 2014. Based on 2014 Landsat imagery, coverage of well-developed pavements within solar energy development boundaries of the Lower Colorado Desert area totaled to 421 sq km, the majority of which (>82%) were located in eastern Riverside County. If disturbed as a result of construction activities, these desert pavements could become a source of dust from exposure of the underlying fine particle layer.
Solar energy development↗
Model Performance in Simulating the Mid-Holocene Green Sahara
The Green Sahara Period, spanning about 11,500 to 5,000 years ago, offers an opportunity to test the ability of climate models to simulate large-scale changes in northern African climate through the strengthening of the West African Monsoon. In this study, we evaluate the performance of four models in simulating the mid-Holocene (6,000 BP), namely – EC-Earth, iCESM, CCSM4-Toronto, and the GISS ModelE2.1-G. Two scenarios are considered for each model – a standard PMIP scenario simulated with the mid-Holocene orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations with vegetation prescribed to pre-industrial conditions, as well as a Green-Sahara scenario which additionally considers factors such as enhanced vegetation, reduced dust, presence of lakes, and land and soil feedbacks. All mid-Holocene scenarios capture an increase in monsoonal precipitation in northern Africa. However, a comparison of the two mid-Holocene scenarios reveals significantly higher precipitation in northern Africa for all the Green-Sahara scenarios relative to the PMIP scenarios – an observation consistent across all models. Accompanied by a strengthened Saharan Heat Low, these changes in the West African Monsoon are also linked to polar amplification, a stronger Indian Summer Monsoon and alterations to the Walker circulation. Model results are in agreement with pollen-based SAT records, multi-proxy SST records and African lake level records. This comparison indicates that a realistic simulation of the mid-Holocene Green Sahara requires consideration of multiple factors in addition to orbital and greenhouse gas forcings.
Green Sahara Period↗
3-D Atmospheric Modeling of the Global Budget of N2O and its Isotopologues for 1980-2019: The Impact of Anthropogenic Emissions
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) and a major ozone-depleting substance (ODS). Its main sources include anthropogenic activities (mostly agriculture) and natural emissions from ocean and soils. However, emission estimates for individual sources are highly variable due to uncertainties in N2O lifetime estimates and partitioning among sources. We derive annual global N2O emissions for 1990-2019 using NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (GML) surface N2O observations and the N2O lifetime calculated in the NASA GEOS-5 chemistry climate model (CCM). The inferred global mean N2O emissions has gradually increased from ~15.8 TgN/yr in the early 1990s to ~17.8 TgN/yr in the 2010s. This implies that anthropogenic N2O emissions have grown rapidly from ~6.7 TgN/yr in the 1990s to about ~8.7 TgN/yr in the 2010s, a ~30% increase. With specially designed N2O isotopic tracers in 3-D GEOSCCM, we estimate that, on global average, stratospheric enrichment contributes about +7.7‰/yr, +7.6‰/yr, +8.0‰/yr to tropospheric N(sup α)-δ(sup 15), N(sup β)-δ(sup 15), and O-δ(sup 18) budget, respectively. To balance the global mean isotopic signature for pre-industrial terrestrial sources of N(sup α)-δ(sup 15) ~ 6.7‰, N(sup β)-δ(sup 15) ~ -12.6‰, O-δ(sup 18) ~ 35.4‰, our 3-D isotopic budget simulation using the GEOSCCM suggests global mean anthropogenic isotopic signatures in the recent decades are N(sup α)-δ(sup 15) ~ -18‰, N(sup β)-δ(sup 15) ~ -20‰, O-δ(sup 18) ~ 19‰. These anthropogenic isotopic estimates are significantly lighter than results from one-box atmospheric model-based estimates with the largest difference seen for N(sup β)-δ(sup 15). More surface isotopic measurements are needed to better quantify the N2O isotopic signatures.
Nitrous oxide↗
Methanogenesis, Mesospheric Clouds, and Global Habitability
Hyperthermophilic methanogens can exist in a deep hot biosphere up to 110 C, or 10 km deep. Methane (CH4) itself is thermodynamically stable to depths of 300 km. Geologic (microbial plus abiogenic thermal) methane is transported upward, attested to by its association with helium, to form petroleum pools. Near or at the surface, geologic CH4 mixes with other natural and with anthropogenic CH4 yielding annual emissions into the atmosphere of 500 Tg, of which 200 Tg are natural and 300 Tg are man-made. The atmospheric lifetime of CH4, a greenhouse gas 20 times more effective than CO2 in raising global temperatures, is approximately 10 years. It is removed from the atmosphere mainly by reactions with hydroxyl radical (OH) to form CO2, but also by dry soil and by conversion to H2O in the stratosphere and middle atmosphere. A sudden rise in atmospheric temperatures by 9-12 C some 55 million years ago has been explained by the release in a few thousand years of three trillion tons of CH4 out of 15 trillion tons that had formed beneath the sea floor. What prevented this CH4-induced greenhouse effect from running away? An analog to the CH4-burp of 55 million years ago is the CH4-doubling over the past century which resulted in a increase in upper level H2O from 4.3 ppmv to 6 ppmv. This 30% increase in H2O vapor yielded a tenfold increase in brightness of polar mesospheric clouds because of a strong dependence of the ice particle nucleation rate on the water saturation ratios. Models show that at a given temperature the optical depth of mesospheric clouds scales as [H2O]beta with beta varying between 4 and 8. Radiative transfer tools applied to mesospheric particles suggest that an optical depth of approximately one, or 1000 times the current mesospheric cloud optical depth, would result in tropospheric cooling of about 10 K. Assuming beta=6, a thousandfold increase in optical thickness would require a three-fold increase of H2O, or a 20-fold increase of CH4. At the current rate of anthropogenic emissions this is expected to occur within the next 1000 years. This timescale is also commensurate with what has been assumed for the CH4- burp 55 million years ago.
Pueschel, Rudolf F.↗
Influence of the Mid-Holocene Green Sahara on South American Climate
Paleoclimatic data from pollen, speleothem and sedimentary records indicate a weakening of the South American Monsoon in the mid-Holocene (MH: 6,000 years BP), which occurred coevally with the intensification of the West African Monsoon. The reduction in precipitation over South America is also simulated by various models which account for changes in orbital forcings and greenhouse gas concentrations between the present day and the mid-Holocene. However, most model studies do not account for vegetation changes, which precludes realistic simulations, especially due to the presence and far-afield impacts of the Green Sahara. In this study, we evaluate precipitation over South America during the mid-Holocene from four models, namely – EC-Earth 3.1, iCESM 1.2, CCSM4-Toronto and GISS Model E2.1-G. Two scenarios are considered for each model – an MHPMIP scenario simulated with the mid-Holocene orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations with vegetation prescribed to pre-industrial conditions, as well as an MHGS (Green Sahara) scenario which additionally considers factors such as enhanced vegetation, reduced dust, presence of lakes, and land and soil feedbacks. Incorporating the Green Sahara leads to an amplification of the drying signal over South America and brings it more in line with the proxy reconstructions. We also present a semi-quantitative assessment of the proxy-model agreement. Our work indicates that it is important to consider changes over northern Africa while studying South American climate of the mid-Holocene.
GISS-E2-1 model↗
Modeling Modern Methane Emissions from Natural Wetlands: Model Description and Results - 1
Methane is an important greenhouse gas which contributes about 22 percent to the present greenhouse effect. Natural wetlands currently constitute the biggest methane source and were the major source in preindustrial times. Wetland emissions depend highly on the climate, i.e., on soil temperature and water table. To investigate the response of methane emissions from natural wetlands to climate variations, a process-based model that derives methane emissions from natural wetlands as a function of soil temperature, water table, and net primary productivity is used. For its application on the global scale, global data sets for all model parameters are generated. In addition, a simple hydrologic model is developed in order to simulate the position of the water table in wetlands. The hydrologic model is tested against data from different wetland sites, and the sensitivity of the hydrologic model to changes in precipitation is examined. The global methane hydrology model constitutes a tool to study temporal and spatial variations in methane emissions from natural wetlands. The model is applied using high-frequency atmospheric forcing fields from European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) re-analyses of the period from 1982 to 1993. We calculate global annual methane emissions from wetlands to be 260 teragrams per year. Twenty-five percent of these methane emissions originate from wetlands north of 30 degrees North Latitude. Only 60 percent of the produced methane is emitted, while the rest is re-oxidized. A comparison of zonal integrals of simulated global wetland emissions and results obtained by an inverse modeling approach shows good agreement. In a test with data from two wetlands the seasonality of simulated and observed methane emissions agrees well.
Biogeochemical processes↗
Future carbon emissions from global mangrove forest loss
Mangroves have among the highest carbon densities of any tropical forest. These ‘blue carbon’ ecosystems can store large amounts of carbon for long periods, and their protection reduces greenhouse gas emissions and supports climate change mitigation. Incorporating mangroves into Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and their valuation on carbon markets requires predicting how the management of different land-uses can prevent future greenhouse gas emissions and increase CO2 sequestration. We integrated comprehensive global datasets for carbon stocks, mangrove distribution, deforestation rates, and land-use change drivers into a predictive model of mangrove carbon emissions. We project emissions and foregone soil carbon sequestration potential under ‘business as usual’ rates of mangrove loss. Emissions from mangrove loss could reach 2391 Tg CO2 eq by the end of the century, or 3392 Tg CO2 eq when considering foregone soil carbon sequestration. The highest emissions were predicted in southeast and south Asia (West Coral Triangle, Sunda Shelf, and the Bay of Bengal) due to conversion to aquaculture or agriculture, followed by the Caribbean (Tropical Northwest Atlantic) due to clearing and erosion, and the Andaman coast (West Myanmar) and north Brazil due to erosion. Together, these six regions accounted for 90% of the total potential CO2 eq future emissions. Mangrove loss has been slowing, and global emissions could be more than halved if reduced loss rates remain in the future. Notably, the location of global emission hotspots was consistent with every dataset used to calculate deforestation rates or with alternative assumptions about carbon storage and emissions. Our results indicate the regions in need of policy actions to address emissions arising from mangrove loss and the drivers that could be managed to prevent them.
Maria F. Adame↗
Biomass Burning and the Production of Greenhouse Gases
Biomass burning is a source of greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. In addition, biomass burning is a source of chemically active gases, including carbon monoxide, nonmethane hydrocarbons, and nitric oxide. These gases, along with methane, lead to the chemical production of tropospheric ozone (another greenhouse gas) as well as control the concentration of the hydroxyl radical, which regulates the lifetime of almost every atmospheric gas. Following biomass burning, biogenic emissions of nitrous oxide, nitric oxide, and methane are significantly enhanced. It is hypothesized that enhanced postburn biogenic emissions of these gases are related to fire-induced changes in soil chemistry and/or microbial ecology. Biomass burning, once believed to be a tropical phenomenon, has been demonstrated by satellite imagery to also be a regular feature of the world's boreal forests. One example of biomass burning is the extensive 1987 fire that destroyed more than 12 million acres of boreal forest in the People's Republic of China and across its border in the Soviet Union. Recent estimates indicate that almost all biomass burning is human-initiated and that it is increasing with time. With the formation of greenhouse and chemically active gases as direct combustion products and a longer-term enhancement of biogenic emissions of gases, biomass burning may be a significant driver for global change.
Levine, Joel S.↗
Challenges and opportunities for enhancing food security and greenhouse gas mitigation in smallholder farming in sub-Saharan Africa. A review
Smallholder farmers struggle to achieve food security in many countries of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It is urgently required to find appropriate practices for enhancing crop production while avoiding large increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in SSA. This review aims to identify common smallholder farming practices for enhancing crop production, to assess how these affect GHG emissions and to identify strategies that not only enhance crop production but also mitigate GHG emissions in SSA. To increase crop production and ensure food security, smallholder farmers usually expand agricultural land, develop water harvesting and irrigation techniques and increase cropping intensity and fertilizer use. These practices may result in changing carbon stocks and GHG emissions, potentially creating trade-offs between food security and GHG mitigation. Agricultural land expansion at the expense of forests is the most dominant source of GHG emissions in SSA. While water harvesting and irrigation can increase soil organic carbon, they can trigger GHG emissions. Increasing cropping intensity can enhance the decomposition of soil organic matter, thus releasing carbon dioxide. Increasing nitrogen fertilizer use can enhance soil organic carbon, but also leads to increasing nitrous oxide emissions. An integrated land, water and nutrient management strategy is necessary to enhance crop production and mitigate GHG emissions. Among the most relevant strategies found, agroforestry practices in degraded and marginal lands could replace expanding agricultural croplands. In addition, water management, via adequate rainwater harvesting and irrigation techniques, together with appropriate nutrient management should be considered. Therefore, a land-water-nutrient nexus (LWNN) approach will enable an integrated and sustainable solution to increasing crop production and mitigating GHG emissions. Various technical, economic and policy barriers hinder implementing the LWNN approach on the ground, but these may be overcome through developing appropriate technologies, disseminating them through farmer to farmer approaches and developing specific policies to address smallholder land tenure issues and motivate long-term investment.
Sub-Sahara Africa↗
Detecting Methane From Leaking Pipelines and as Greenhouse Gas in the Atmosphere
Laser remote sensing measurements of trace gases from orbit can provide unprecedented information about important planetary science and answer critical questions about planetary atmospheres. Methane (CH4) is the second most important anthropogenically produced greenhouse gas. Though its atmospheric abundance is much less than that of CO2 (1.78 ppm vs. 380 ppm), it has much larger greenhouse heating potential. CH4 also contributes to pollution in the lower atmosphere through chemical reactions, leading to ozone production. Atmospheric CH4 concentrations have been increasing as a result of increased fossil fuel production, rice farming, livestock, and landfills. Natural sources of CH4 include wetlands, wild fires, and termites, and perhaps other unknown sources. Important sinks for CH4 include non-saturated soils and oxidation by hydroxyl radicals in the atmosphere. Remotely measuring CH4 and other biogenic molecules (such as ethane and formaldehyde) on Mars also has important implications on the existence of life on Mars. Measuring CH4 at very low (ppb) concentrations from orbit will dramatically improve the sensitivity and spatial resolution in the search for CH4 vents and sub-surface life on other planets. A capability has been developed using lasers and spectroscopic detection techniques for the remote measurements of trace gases in open paths. Detection of CH4, CO2, H2O, and CO in absorption cells and in open paths, both in the mid- IR and near-IR region, has been demonstrated using an Optical Parametric Amplifier laser transmitter developed at GSFC. With this transmitter, it would be possible to develop a remote sensing methane instrument. CH4 detection also has very important commercial applications. Pipeline leak detection from an aircraft or a helicopter can significantly reduce cost, response time, and pinpoint the location. The main advantage is the ability to rapidly detect CH4 leaks remotely. This is extremely important for the petrochemical industry. This capability can be used in manned or unmanned airborne platforms for the detection of leaks in pipelines and other areas of interest where a CH4 leak is suspected.
Riris, Haris↗