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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

bifacial_radiance: a python package for modeling bifacial solar photovoltaic systems

bifacial_radiance is a national-laboratory-developed, community-supported, open-source toolkit that provides a set of functions and classes for simulating the performance of bifacial photovoltaic (PV) systems. (Bifacial PV modules collect light on the front as well as the rear side.) bifacial_radiance automates calculations of PV system layout and performance to use along with the popular ray-tracing software tool RADIANCE (Ward, 1994). Specific algorithms include design and layout of PV modules, reflective ground surfaces, shading obstructions, and irradiance calculations throughout the system, among others. bifacial_radiance is an important component of a growing ecosystem of open-source tools for solar energy (William F Holmgren et al., 2018).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2023

A GeoNEX-Based High-Spatiotemporal-Resolution Product of Land Surface Downward Shortwave Radiation and Photosynthetically Active Radiation

Surface downward shortwave radiation (DSR) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) play critical roles in the Earth’s surface processes. As the main inputs of various ecological, hydrological, carbon, and solar photovoltaic models, increasing requirements for high-spatiotemporal-resolution DSR and PAR es- timation with high accuracy have been observed in recent years. However, few existing products satisfy all of these requirements. This study employed a well-established physical-based lookup table (LUT) approach to the GeoNEX gridded top-of-atmosphere bidirectional reflectance factor data acquired by the Advanced Hi- mawari Imager (AHI) and Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) sensors. It produced a data product of DSR and PAR over both AHI and ABI coverage at an hourly temporal step with a 1 km spatial resolution. GeoNEX DSR data were validated over 63 stations, and GeoNEX PAR data were validated over 27 stations. The vali- dation showed that the new GeoNEX DSR and PAR products have accuracy higher than other existing prod- ucts, with root mean square error (RMSE) of hourly GeoNEX DSR achieving 74.3Wm−2 (18.0%), daily DSR estimation achieving 18.0 W m−2 (9.2 %), hourly GeoNEX PAR achieving 34.9 W m−2 (19.6 %), and daily PAR achieving 9.5 W m−2 (10.5 %). The study also demonstrated the application of the high-spatiotemporal- resolution GeoNEX DSR product in investigating the spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability of surface solar radiation. The data product can be freely accessed through the NASA Advanced Supercomputing Division GeoNEX data portal: https://data.nas.nasa.gov/geonex/geonexdata/GOES16/GEONEX-L2/DSR-PAR/ (last ac- cess: 12 March 2023) and https://data.nas.nasa.gov/geonex/geonexdata/HIMAWARI8/GEONEX-L2/DSR-PAR/ (last access: 12 March 2023) (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7023863; Wang and Li, 2022).

Surface downward shortwave radiation (DSR)↗
DOE OSTI2021

U.S. Solar Photovoltaic BESS System Cost Benchmark Q1 2020 Report

NREL has been modeling U.S. solar photovoltaic (PV) system costs since 2009. This year, our report benchmarks costs of U.S. PV for residential, commercial, and utility-scale systems, with and without storage, built in the first quarter of 2020 (Q1 2020). The methodology includes bottom-up accounting for all system and project-development costs incurred when installing residential, commercial, and utility-scale systems and it models the capital costs and levelized cost of energy for such systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks: Q1 2021

NREL has been modeling U.S. solar photovoltaic (PV) system costs since 2009. This year, our report benchmarks costs of U.S. PV for residential, commercial, and utility-scale systems, with and without storage, built in the first quarter of 2021 (Q1 2021). The methodology includes bottom-up accounting for all system and project-development costs incurred when installing residential, commercial, and utility-scale systems and it models the capital costs and levelized cost of energy for such systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Closing the Loops on Solar Photovoltaics Modules: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach for the Study of Circular Economy Strategies

Solar photovoltaics (PV) installed capacity have grown exponentially since the early 2000s (average annual growth rate of 50%). With 4,700 GW projected installed capacity by 2050, the volume of PV panels waste is also expected to become substantial. Though renewables are a sine qua non to the establishment of a truly circular economy (CE), the issue arising from their end-of-life management needs to be resolved. The management of PV end-of-life also represent a singular opportunity to create value, from recovered valuable, rare or critical materials (e.g. silver, tellurium, indium). Moreover, the PV case illustrates some of the current barriers to CE; for instance, the need for a common definition of waste (PV are defined as e-waste in the European Union but as general waste in the United States) and potential loss of innovations' advantages (PV average efficiency has continuously grown the past 10 years). In this study, an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach is proposed to simulate PV end-of-life management in the United States. The model explores how the decisions of the various actors involved in handling PV waste affect the quantities of PV that are reused, recycled, or land-filled. In the model, manufacturers, residential, and nonresidential PV owners, installers, and recyclers are represented by agents while governmental policies and regulations are treated as exogenous variables. PV-market data are used to define agents' characteristics (e.g., installed PV capacities or producing costs). Agents' decision rules draw on the literature related to industrial symbiosis (IS) and peoples' waste behaviors as they appear as the most widely used model to implement CE principles at a meso level. Specifically, the concepts of mutual trust between IS actors and knowledge about the IS philosophy are yielded to define the agents' decision process. The primary outputs of the ABM are the costs and volume of waste associated with each end-of-life pathway. Preliminaries results indicate recycling of residential PV is affected by the cost, perceived difficulty of recycling behaviors, and social norms. Moreover, the type of network connecting agents and the initial recycling rate strongly influence results. The model also highlights the crucial role of recycling behavior adoption: in case of early failure of PV, recycled volumes increase by about 40%. This represents an additional 5.7 billion USD from potential recovered silver. Finally, although results for the PV case are presented here, the developed ABM aims at being a general tool for the study of CE strategies and the CE transition. Furthermore, steps of this research include extending the model to encompass circular economy strategies (e.g., design for recycling or lifetime extension) and validating its general architecture from various case studies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1980

Urban solar photovoltaics potential: An inventory and modelling study applied to the San Fernando Valley region of Los Angeles

Procedures for analyzing the potential of solar photovoltaic collectors to meet energy requirements in a metropolitan region are described and a modeling effort is applied to the San Fernando Valley region of Los Angeles. The procedure involves a series of steps designed to produce maps and tabulations revealing the amount of rooftop area available for establishing solar collectors and the proportion of energy requirement that could be potentially supplied by solar photovoltaics within each of the 533 mainline feeder service areas in the study area. For the sixty five square mile study area, the results showed that, with half the available flat and south facing roofs used and assuming the availability of energy storage, 52.7 percent of the actual kWh energy requirements could have been met in 1978 using photovoltaic collectors. Hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly fluctuations in potential supply and actual loads and recommendations of avenues for further research are discussed. Some further potential applications of the modeling technique are suggested.

Angelici, G. L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic implications and cost of forecasting errors in solar PV power production using optimized deep learning models

Accurate solar Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is important for enhancing both the performance and economic feasibility of PV systems. This study evaluates several deep learning models, including Dense Neural Networks (DNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and a hybrid LSTMCNN model, for predicting PV power production one day in advance. Prior to optimization, the models exhibited relatively high errors, with the best model (DNN) achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 31.13 kW and a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 62.15 %. After employing Bayesian optimization, the LSTM-CNN model demonstrated the best performance, with the RMSE reduced to 9.79 kW and R 2 improved to 97.62 %, showcasing significant enhancement in predictive accuracy. Here, the economic evaluation considered three cases: rewards for underestimation (0.08 USD/kWh), no rewards, and penalties for both over-and underestimation (120 % of the utility tariff). In the rewards scenario, the LSTM-CNN model reduced the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) by 4 %, while in the penalty scenario, a backup diesel generator would have increased the LCOE by 49 %. Additionally, the LSTM-CNN model minimized financial losses, achieving the lowest penalties and maximizing net cash flow compared to other models, demonstrating its overall technical and economic superiority.

Deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benefits and costs of a utility-ownership business model for residential rooftop solar photovoltaics

The rapid growth of rooftop solar photovoltaic systems can pose a number of financial challenges for electric utility shareholders and their customers. One potential pathway to resolving these perceived challenges involves allowing utilities to own and operate rooftop solar systems. However, the financial benefits and costs of this business model are not well understood. Here we model the financial performance of a large-scale utility-owned residential rooftop solar programme. Furthermore, over a 20 yr period, the programme increases shareholder earnings by 2–5% relative to a no-solar scenario, compared to a 2% earnings loss when an equivalent amount of rooftop solar is instead owned by non-utility parties. Such a programme could therefore be attractive from the perspective of utility investors. The impacts on utility customers, however, are more mixed, with average bills of non-solar customers increasing by 1–3% compared to the no-solar scenario, similar to the 2% increase under traditional, non-utility-ownership structures.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Future-proofing photovoltaics module reliability through a unifying predictive modeling framework

Solar energy, especially photovoltaics (PV), plays a significant role in the global energy transition required for decarbonization. Technological advancements in increasing efficiencies coupled with cost reductions through economies of scale made PV a cost-competitive energy source set to exceed the milestone of 1 TW globally deployed capacity in 2022. However, ongoing downward price pressure coupled with increasing service life expectations creates tremendous challenges for reliability engineers in ensuring the safe and reliable operation of PV modules and systems over the anticipated service life. Today's reliability research efforts aim for module lifetimes of up to 50 years. Still, our current tools fall short in accurately assessing degradation mechanisms and failure modes over such extended periods. We argue that the well-established PV reliability learning cycle needs to be accelerated to keep up with the rapid technological advancements and high expectations that are put on PV and its role in the global energy transition. In this article, we explore the evolution of the PV reliability learning cycle and highlight the significance that predictive modeling capabilities will have on future PV module reliability. We propose creating a unifying modeling framework - which once established will enable the holistic assessment of PV module reliability, accelerate the PV reliability learning cycle, and bring us closer to quantitative service life predictions of PV modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Effect of Inverter Loading Ratio on Energy Estimate Bias: Preprint

Subhourly effects, particularly variability in solar irradiance, can lead to underestimation of inverter clipping losses and overestimation of energy in hourly photovoltaic system performance models, particularly for systems with high inverter loading ratios. Direct simulation of this error can be complicated by factors such as the representation of spatial and temporal variability in hourly weather data and transient system conditions. In this work we take an alternative approach using real system power measurements to show that energy predictions from typical industry models suffer from a bias that increases with inverter loading ratio. We also show that this loading ratio-dependent bias is strongly correlated with an empirical subhourly inverter clipping bias derived from real power plant data. Finally, we show that this bias is not necessarily specific to any one model or weather dataset by recreating similar biases with alternatives of each.

clipping↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectivity for String Monitoring in PV Power Plants (Final Technical Report)

This final report describes the methods and results of applying Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectivity (SSTDR) for String Monitoring in PV Power Plants for DE-EE0008169. The project created a new system for both detecting and locating electrical faults in photovoltaic systems. In this work, we address photovoltaic electric faults that are both common and costly. Based on interviews with photovoltaic power plant owners, operators, and maintainers, three types of faults are common and of significant interest: disconnects, ground faults, and arc faults. Disconnects can originate from many sources. They are often due to everyday events, such as lawnmowing (accidentally running over a cable), animals eating through the cables, or degradation that occurs over time due to corrosion or general degradation. Ground faults occur when the cables (for example, due to frayed insolation) connect to the ground, relaying current into the ground. These faults are particularly problematic since the ground faults are often intermittent. That is, ground faults commonly appear during rain storms due to a change in soil conductivity and then disappear when the rain ends. This makes the ground fault difficult to find because while current systems can detect the overall change in voltage and current associated with a ground fault, technicians are necessary to locate the fault. As a result, ground faults may disappear before the technician arrives at the power plant. Hence, locating and fixing ground faults often require multiple trips. We also study arc faults, which can result when nearby conductors create an arc of electrical current through the air. While less common, arc faults can be extremely dangerous. The energetic electrical arc can cause fires and destroy equipment, costing significant damage. Overall all three types of faults cost owners and operators money, either from the destruction of equipment or from technician time. Furthermore, while devices exist for detecting ground faults (ground fault circuit interrupters) and arc faults (arc fault circuit interrupter), these systems only search patterns of electrical current that correspond to each fault. This information cannot be used to locate the fault. In addition, these protection systems experience nuisance trips due to nearby electromagnetic interference, such as from a lawn mower or other motors that produce significant amounts of electromagnetic radiation. Hence, the overall goal of this project is to create an SSTDR tool that provides photovoltaic power plants with more reliable fault detection in addition to the localization of faults. SSTDR works by transmitting electrical signals into the photovoltaic string. Those signals reflect from impedance discontinuities (i.e., disconnects, ground faults, and arc faults). These faults are then detected by measuring the presence of a reflection at the SSTDR and can be located by identifying the location of that reflection in time. In addition, unlike current protection systems, these systems do not experience nuisance trips since their low amplitude, high frequency, and coded signal can by analyzed without interference from the regular operational voltage on the photovoltaic string.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Triple Effect Economics: How Do Electric Vehicles, Solar Photovoltaics, and Work-from-Home Transform Household Electricity Cost?

Solutions for deep decarbonization need to be affordable as well as sustainable to garner widespread adoption. The past two decades have seen the introduction of new technologies and paradigms such as electric vehicles (EVs), solar photovoltaics (PVs), and increased work-from-home (WFH), which impact a household's overall energy consumption and cost in different ways. However, much attention has not been paid to explore the joint impact these technologies have on a household's electricity cost burden. Leveraging the 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS), this study presents an integrated model to unravel the extent to which the bundled adoption of EV-PV and stay-at-home decisions impact the total electricity cost of households. National level RECS data revealed that, compared to the baseline (i.e., households that did not own any of these technologies), households that own EVs, PVs, and engage in WFH observed a 13.5% decline in their electricity bills, despite a 25% increase in electricity consumption. The model results indicated that bundled adoption of EVs-PVs reduces electricity costs more significantly for a household, compared to the increased costs imposed by more household members staying at home. This holistic assessment presents an opportunity for decision makers to contextualize the changing energy costs and design effective strategies to foster a sustainable and cost saving mechanism. Policies such as bundled incentivization to motivate co-adoption, education about energy-management strategies, and add-on subsidies to adopt energy-efficient appliances, will not only accelerate decarbonization but increase household financial savings.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Triple Effect: Unraveling the Joint Impact of Electric Vehicles, Solar Panels, and Work-From-Home Patterns on Household Electricity Costs

Solutions for deep decarbonization need to be sustainable as well as affordable to garner widespread adoption. The past two decades have seen the introduction of new technologies and paradigms such as electric vehicles (EVs), solar photovoltaics (PVs), and increased work-from-home (WFH), which impact the overall energy consumption and cost of a household in different ways. However, much attention has not been paid to explore the joint impact these technologies have on a household's energy (electricity cost) burden. Leveraging Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS), this study presents an integrated model to unravel the extent to which the bundled adoption of EV-PV and stay-at-home decisions impact the total electricity cost of households. RECS data revealed that, compared to the baseline (i.e., households that did not own any of these technologies), households that own EVs, PVs, and engage in WFH observed a 13.5% decline in their electricity bills, despite a 25% increase in electricity consumption. The model results indicated that bundled adoption of EVs-PVs reduces electricity costs more significantly for a household, compared to the increased costs imposed by more household members staying at home. This holistic assessment presents an opportunity for decision makers to contextualize the changing energy costs and design effective strategies to foster a sustainable and affordable future. Policies such as bundled incentivization to motivate co-adoption, education about energy-management strategies, and add-on subsidies to adopt energy-efficient appliances, will not only accelerate decarbonization but increase household financial savings.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The electric vehicles-solar photovoltaics Nexus: Driving cross-sectoral adoption of sustainable technologies

Residential and transportation energy consumption account for more than one-half of the overall energy consumption in the United States. Adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) can play a key role in decarbonizing the transportation sector, while the adoption of renewable energy sources (e.g., solar photovoltaics [PVs]) could bring similar benefits to the residential energy sector and in turn support transport electrification. Although the market shares for both EVs and PVs continue to grow, both of these emerging technologies are deployed rather disjointly, without considering the existence of potential similarities among users who own (or aspire to own) these technologies. This might be due to lack of understanding of the behavioral interdependence in consumer preferences toward these technologies. To fill this gap in knowledge, this study utilizes data from the 2018 WholeTraveler Transportation Behavior Study to develop an integrated model system that explores interactive EV and PV adoption behaviors. A structural equation model is employed that incorporates direct effects as well as error correlations among the adoption behaviors for EVs and PVs. Model results indicate that the adoption behavior for both these technologies is indeed interconnected and significantly influenced by attitudes, values, and personality traits. Findings from this research suggest that incentives (e.g., subsidies) that drive bundled adoption of EV-PV systems could accelerate the adoption of both of these sustainable technologies. In conclusion, this study highlights the need to consider transport and building energy-efficient technology adoption behavior in a single integrated structure.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Timescale Integrated Dynamic and Scheduling Model (MIDAS-Solar)

Solar photovoltaic (PV) installations have experienced unprecedented growth in the United States. PV will become not only an energy producer but also a necessary provider of ancillary services at multiple timescales. Conventional methods to simulate power system operations - such as long-term production simulation (which typically considers schedules from hours to minutes by using an optimization framework) and short-term transient studies (which simulate dynamics from seconds to sub-seconds using state variables and differential equations) are not sufficient for studying the multiple-timescale variation of solar generation and its impact on system reliability. Long-term system economics and short-term system dynamics are highly coupled, particularly when the penetration level of renewable generation is extremely high, because the uncertainty and variability of solar generation will impact both power systems steady-state and dynamic performance. This project helps meet and exceed the Solar Energy Technologies Office goal of systems integration by directly addressing this stability and reliability challenge for electric grid planning and operation. This will be accomplished by developing temporally comprehensive, closed-loop simulation models that seamlessly simulate power systems operations from economic scheduling (day-ahead to hours) to dynamic response analysis (seconds to sub-seconds). Both a multi-timescale grid model and an integrated PV model will be developed in this project to accurately study the impacts of PV variability and uncertainty on system reliability at multiple timescales. Using quasi-dynamic simulation methods and data-driven security assessment (DSA) criteria will allow the dynamic characteristics of PV to be fed forward into longer-timescale scheduling models for a complete understanding of the effect of short-term PV dynamics on bulk systems operations (e.g., reserve scheduling and deployment). Upon completion of the proposed model, this project will help operators accurately assess system reliability by deploying energy and reserve scheduling under critical contingency conditions and studying interactions among all types of essential reliability services provided by modern PV power plants.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Integrated Transmission-Distribution Co-Simulation for a Distribution System with High Renewable Penetration

Traditionally, transmission and distribution system dynamic simulations are performed independently. However, dynamic co-simulation of transmission-distribution systems can be beneficial in analyzing distribution systems with high penetration of distributed renewable resources. The authors describe a framework for conducting transmission-distribution dynamic co-simulation (TDDS). A model of a real network including detailed models of solar photovoltaic units in the distribution system is constructed. The initial operating point of the network is validated against field measurements. The TDDS tool is used to simulate a single line-to-ground fault on the distribution system, highlighting the need for conducting transmission-distribution co-simulations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗