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At least 19 records

Variable Ion Compositions of Solar Energetic Particle Events in the Inner Heliosphere: A Field Line Braiding Model with Compound Injections

We propose a model for interpreting highly variable ion composition ratios in solar energetic particle (SEP) events recently observed by the Parker Solar Probe (PSP) at 0.3–0.45 au. We use numerical simulations to calculate SEP propagation in a turbulent interplanetary magnetic field with a Kolmogorov power spectrum from large scales down to the gyration scale of energetic particles. We show that when the source regions of different species are offset by a distance comparable to the size of the source regions, the observed energetic particle composition He/H can be strongly variable over more than two orders of magnitude, even if the source ratio is at the nominal value. Assuming a 3 He/ 4 He source ratio of 10% in impulsive 3 He-rich events and the same spatial offset of the source regions, the 3 He/ 4 He ratio at observation sites also vary considerably. The variability of the ion composition ratios depends on the radial distance, which can be tested by observations made at different radial locations. We discuss the implications of these results on the variability of ion composition of impulsive events and on further PSP and Solar Orbiter observations close to the Sun.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Long-Term Science Goals with In Situ Observations at the Sun-Earth Lagrange Point L4

The Korean heliospheric community, led by the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI), is currently assessing the viability of deploying a spacecraft at the Sun-Earth Lagrange Point L4 in collaboration with National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The aim of this mission is to utilize a combination of remote sensing and in situ instruments for comprehensive observations, complementing the capabilities of the L1 and L5 observatories. The paper outlines long-term scientific objectives, underscoring the significance of multi-point in-situ observations to better understand critical heliospheric phenomena. These include coronal mass ejections, magnetic flux ropes, heliospheric current sheets, kinetic waves and instabilities, suprathermal electrons and solar energetic particle events, as well as remote detection of solar radiation phenomena. Furthermore, the mission’s significance in advancing space weather prediction and space radiation exposure assessment models through the integration of L4 observations is discussed. This article is concluded with an emphasis on the potential of L4 observations to propel advancements in heliospheric science.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A New Phase for Space Weather

As we move into the declining phase of solar cycle 25, the sunspot number is going down but space weather impacts are not disappearing. Solar energetic particle events, large x-ray flares, and geomagnetic storms are still happening and the declining phase will bring a different balance of hazards. The need for space weather science, space weather applications, and an interface between research, application, and stakeholder communities has not passed. Observations and insights from solar cycle 25 will continue to help us prepare for solar cycle 26, so that we approach the next solar maximum with better predictions, better understanding of outcomes, and a stronger community enabling more confident mitigation and clearer outreach.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Effects of Coronal Magnetic Field Configuration on Particle Acceleration and Release during the Ground Level Enhancement Events in Solar Cycle 24

Ground level enhancements (GLEs) are extreme solar energetic particle (SEP) events that are of particular importance in space weather. In solar cycle 24, two GLEs were recorded on 2012 May 17 (GLE 71) and 2017 September 10 (GLE 72), respectively, using a range of advanced modern instruments. Here we conduct a comparative analysis of the two events by focusing on the effects of large-scale magnetic field configuration near active regions on particle acceleration and release. Although the active regions are both located near the western limb, temporal variations of SEP intensities and energy spectra measured in situ display different behaviors at early stages. By combining a potential field model, we find the coronal mass ejection (CME) in GLE 71 originated below the streamer belt, while in GLE 72 it originated near the edge of the streamer belt. We reconstruct the CME shock fronts with an ellipsoid model based on nearly simultaneous coronagraph images from multiple viewpoints and further derive the 3D shock geometry at the GLE onset. The highest-energy particles are primarily accelerated in the shock–streamer interaction regions, i.e., likely at the nose of the shock in GLE 71 and the eastern flank in GLE 72, due to quasi-perpendicular shock geometry and confinement of closed fields. Subsequently, they are released to the field lines connecting to near-Earth spacecraft when the shocks move through the streamer cusp region. This suggests that magnetic structures in the corona, especially shock–streamer interactions, may have played an important role in the acceleration and release of the highest-energy particles in the two events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The 2024 July 16 solar event: a challenge to the coronal mass ejection origin of long-duration gamma-ray flares

We present a multi-spacecraft analysis of the 2024 July 16 long-duration gamma-ray flare (LDGRF) detected by the Large Area Telescope on the Fermi satellite. The measured > 100 MeV γ-ray emission persisted for over seven hours after the flare impulsive phase, and was characterized by photon energies exceeding 1 GeV and a remarkably hard parent-proton spectrum. In contrast, the phenomena related to the coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven shock linked to this eruption were modest, suggesting an inefficient proton acceleration unlikely to achieve energies well above the 300 MeV pion-production threshold to account for the observed γ-ray emission. Specifically, the CME was relatively slow (∼600 km/s) and the accompanying interplanetary type-II/III radio bursts were faint and short-lived, unlike those typically detected during large events. In particular, the type-II emission did not extend to kilohertz frequencies and disappeared ∼5.5 hours prior to the LDGRF end time. Furthermore, the associated solar energetic particle (SEP) event was very weak, short-duration, and limited to a few tens of MeV, even at magnetically well-connected spacecraft. These findings demonstrate that a very fast CME resulting in a high-energy SEP event is not a necessary condition for the occurrence of LDGRFs, challenging the idea that the high-energy γ-ray emission is produced by the back-precipitation of shock-accelerated ions into the solar surface. The alternative origin scenario based on local particle trapping and acceleration in large-scale coronal loops is instead favored by the observation of giant arch-like structures of hot plasma over the source region that persisted for the entire duration of this LDGRF.

Sun: UV radiation↗

Double-power-law Feature of Energetic Particles Accelerated at Coronal Shocks

Recent observations have shown that in many large solar energetic particle (SEP) events the event-integrated differential spectra resemble double power laws. We perform numerical modeling of particle acceleration at coronal shocks propagating through a streamer-like magnetic field by solving the Parker transport equation, including protons and heavier ions. We find that for all ion species the energy spectra integrated over the simulation domain can be described by a double power law, and the break energy depends on the ion charge-to-mass ratio as E B ~ (Q/A) α , with α varying from 0.16 to 1.2 by considering different turbulence spectral indices. We suggest that the double-power-law distribution may emerge as a result of the superposition of energetic particles from different source regions where the acceleration rates differ significantly due to particle diffusion. The diffusion and mixing of energetic particles could also provide an explanation for the increase of Fe/O at high energies as observed in some SEP events. Although further mixing processes may occur, our simulations indicate that either a power-law break or rollover can occur near the Sun and predict that the spectral forms vary significantly along the shock front, which may be examined by upcoming near-Sun SEP measurements from the Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Modeling Particle Acceleration and Release from Solar Eruptions

Determining the relative contribution of solar flares versus coronal mass ejections in large solar energetic particle (SEP) events is a long-standing problem. Flare-accelerated particles may travel through complex magnetic fields in the eruption region and escape into interplanetary space, thereby contributing to large SEP events. The process by which flare accelerated particles are released into the heliosphere is poorly understood and yet is critical to advancing our understanding of SEPs. In this work, we address the release problem by solving the focused transport equation in the context of a 2.5D ARMS magnetohydrodynamic simulation of a breakout coronal mass ejection (CME)/flare event. We find that particles accelerated by flare reconnection can be released into interplanetary space through interchange reconnection between closed and open field lines. These particles can contribute directly to SEP events and may become an important seed population for further acceleration by CME-driven shocks. Additionally, we find that the energetic particle fluxes in the inner heliosphere remain elevated for an extended period, allowing them to contribute to SEP acceleration by subsequent CMEs. This study represents the first direct particle modeling of how flare-accelerated particles can contribute to major SEP events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Review of the August 1972 and March 1989 (Allen) Space Weather Events: Can We Learn Anything New From Them?

Abstract Updated summaries of the August 1972 and March 1989 space weather events have been constructed. The features of these two events are compared to the Carrington 1859 event and a few other major space weather events. It is concluded that solar active regions release energy in a variety of forms (X‐rays, EUV photons, visible light, coronal mass ejection (CME) plasmas and fields) and they in turn can produce other energetic effects (solar energetic particles (SEPs), magnetic storms) in a variety of ways. It is clear that there is no strong one‐to‐one relationship between these various energy sinks. The energy is often distributed differently from one space weather event to the next. Concerning SEPs accelerated at interplanetary CME (ICME) shocks, it is concluded that the Fermi mechanism associated with quasi‐parallel shocks is relatively weak and that the gradient drift mechanism (electric fields) at quasi‐perpendicular shocks will produce harder spectra and higher fluxes. If the 4 August 1972 intrinsic magnetic cloud condition (southward interplanetary magnetic field instead of northward) and the interplanetary Sun to 1 au conditions were different, a 4 August 1972 magnetic storm and magnetospheric dawn‐to‐dusk electric fields substantially larger than the Carrington event would have occurred. Under these special interplanetary conditions, a Miyake et al. (2012), https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11123 ‐like extreme SEP event may have been formed. The long duration complex 1989 storm was probably greater than the Carrington storm in the sense that the total ring current particle energy was larger.

Tsurutani, Bruce T.↗

Global Prompt Proton Sensor Network: Monitoring Solar Energetic Protons Based on GPS Satellite Constellation

Energetic particle instruments on board Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites form a powerful global prompt proton sensor network (GPPSn) that provides an unprecedented opportunity to monitor and characterize solar energetic protons targeting the Earth. The medium-Earth orbits of the GPS constellation have the unique advantage of allowing solar energetic protons to be simultaneously measured from multiple points in both open- and closed-field line regions. Examining two example intervals of solar proton events, we showcase in this study how GPS proton data are prepared, calibrated, and utilized to reveal important features of solar protons, including their source, acceleration/scattering by interplanetary shocks, the relative position of Earth when impinged by these shocks, the shape of solar particle fronts, the access of solar protons inside the dynamic geomagnetic field, and temporally varying proton distributions in both energy and space. By comparing to Van Allen Probes data, GPS proton observations are further demonstrated not only to be useful for qualitatively monitoring the dynamics of solar protons but also for quantitative scientific research including determining cutoff L-shells. Finally, our results establish that this GPPSn can join forces with other existing solar proton monitors and contribute to observing, warning, understanding, and ultimately forecasting the incoming solar energetic proton events.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Predicting cutoff L-shells of solar protons using the GPPSn particle dataset

Solar energetic protons (SEPs) arriving at the Earth trigger severe radiation storms in the near-Earth space, directly impacting space missions operating at various altitudes. Therefore, monitoring SEP events and predicting the penetration depths of solar protons are critical for aerospace sectors. Building on previous efforts, here we demonstrate the feasibility of using proton measurements from the Global Prompt Proton Sensor network (GPPSn), enabled by Los Alamos National Laboratory developed combined X-ray dosimeters aboard GPS satellites, to characterize and predict the penetration of solar protons into the geomagnetic field. The inclined medium-Earth-orbits (MEOs) of the global GPS constellation offer a unique advantage of allowing simultaneous measurements of penetrating solar protons inside both open- and closed-field line regions. Therefore, the L-profiles of ∼10s–100 MeV solar protons and their associated cutoff L-shells can be determined from the GPPSn dataset, using predefined threshold proton flux values rather than traditional flux ratios. After examining a list of SEP event intervals across solar cycles 23, 24 and 25—including the 2024 Mother’s Day superstorm, we showcase how the latest GPPSn proton dataset (release v1.10), reprocessed and calibrated, can not only be used to monitor solar proton distributions inside the dynamic geomagnetic field for individual events, but also to derive a new empirical model linking cutoff L-shells with several key space weather parameters. This newly developed SEPCL-MEO model demonstrates high predictive performance; for example, predictions for > 30 MeV solar protons yield a correlation coefficient of 0.85 and performance efficiency of 0.67 when validated against GPPSn observations. Results from this pilot study underscores the scientific and operational value of the GPPSn dataset, and this dataset—when paired with machine-learning techniques—can play a critical role in observing and predicting the effects of future incoming SEP events, including extreme ones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Energetic Nonthermal Electrons within the Above-the-looptop Regions in Solar Flares: Acceleration, Feedback, and Quasiperiodic Pulsations

Solar flares are among the most dramatic events in the solar system, releasing substantial magnetic energy and accelerating a large number of electrons to high energies. Notably, in certain events, the above-the-looptop region may contain a significant population of nonthermal electrons, both in number and energy. For the first time, we adopt a novel numerical method that combines magnetohydrodynamics with energetic particles incorporating feedback from nonthermal electrons to investigate electron acceleration and transport in solar flares. We find that a large fraction of energetic electrons are accelerated via the current sheet and termination shock regions. Most energetic electrons are concentrated in the above-the-looptop region, carrying a sizable amount of the released energy. We observe that greater feedback of nonthermal electrons leads to steeper energy spectra. The energy density of the nonthermal electrons oscillates due to the periodic impact of magnetic islands into the above-the-looptop region, which may help explain the observed quasiperiodic pulsations. Our simulations provide new insights into the origin of nonthermal electrons and associated emissions in the above-the-looptop region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Predicting Solar Energetic Particles Using SDO/HMI Vector Magnetic Data Products and a Bidirectional LSTM Network

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) are an essential source of space radiation, and are hazardous for humans in space, spacecraft, and technology in general. In this paper, we propose a deep-learning method, specifically a bidirectional long short-term memory (biLSTM) network, to predict if an active region (AR) would produce an SEP event given that (i) the AR will produce an M- or X-class flare and a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the flare, or (ii) the AR will produce an M- or X-class flare regardless of whether or not the flare is associated with a CME. The data samples used in this study are collected from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite's X-ray flare catalogs provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information. We select M- and X-class flares with identified ARs in the catalogs for the period between 2010 and 2021, and find the associations of flares, CMEs, and SEPs in the Space Weather Database of Notifications, Knowledge, Information during the same period. Each data sample contains physical parameters collected from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory. Experimental results based on different performance metrics demonstrate that the proposed biLSTM network is better than related machine-learning algorithms for the two SEP prediction tasks studied here. We also discuss extensions of our approach for probabilistic forecasting and calibration with empirical evaluation

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Data-driven, Physics-based Transport Model of Solar Energetic Particles Accelerated by Coronal Mass Ejection Shocks Propagating through the Solar Coronal and Heliospheric Magnetic Fields

Abstract In an effort to develop computational tools for predicting radiation hazards from solar energetic particles (SEPs), we have created a data-driven physics-based particle transport model to calculate the injection, acceleration, and propagation of SEPs from coronal mass ejection (CME) shocks traversing through the solar corona and interplanetary magnetic fields. The model runs on an input of corona and heliospheric plasma and magnetic field configuration from a magnetohydrodynamic model driven by solar photospheric magnetic field measurements superposed with observed CME shocks determined from coronagraph images. SEP source particles are injected at the shock using the result of diffusive shock acceleration formulation from a characteristic obliquity-dependent injection from a heated solar wind thermal tail population. With several advanced computation techniques involving stochastic simulation and integration, the model obtains the particle intensity at any location in interplanetary space through the rigorous solution to the time-dependent 5D focus transport equation in the phase space that includes perpendicular diffusion. We apply the model to the 2011 November 3 CME event. The calculation results reproduce multispacecraft SEP observations at Earth and STEREO-B reasonably well without normalization of particle flux. The observations at STEREO-A can be reproduced by rescaling particle energy or modified energy dependence of particle diffusion coefficients. This circumsolar SEP event seen by spacecraft at Earth, STEREO-A, and STEREO-B at widely separated longitudes can be explained by diffusive shock acceleration by a single CME shock with a moderate speed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Space weather observations, modeling, and alerts in support of human exploration of Mars

Space weather observations and modeling at Mars have begun but they must be significantly increased to support the future of Human Exploration on the Red Planet. A comprehensive space weather understanding of a planet without a global magnetosphere and a thin atmosphere is very different from our situation at Earth so there is substantial fundamental research remaining. It is expected that the development of suitable models will lead to a comprehensive operational Mars space weather alert (MSWA) system that would provide rapid dissemination of information to Earth controllers, astronauts in transit, and those in the exploration zone (EZ) on the surface by producing alerts that are delivered rapidly and are actionable. To illustrate the importance of such a system, we use a magnetohydrodynamic code to model an extreme Carrington-type coronal mass ejection (CME) event at Mars. The results show a significant induced surface field of nearly 3,000 nT on the dayside that could radically affect unprotected electrical systems that would dramatically impact human survival on Mars. Other associated problems include coronal mass ejection (CME) shock-driven acceleration of solar energetic particles producing large doses of ionizing radiation at the Martian surface. In summary, along with working more closely with international partners, the next Heliophysics Decadal Survey must include a new initiative to meet expected demands for space weather forecasting in support of humans living and working on the surface of Mars. It will require significant effort to coordinate NASA and the international community contributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Do Impulsive Solar-Energetic-Electron (SEE) Events Drive High-Voltage Charging Events on the Nightside of the Moon?

When the Earth’s moon is in the supersonic solar wind, the darkside of the Moon and the lunar plasma wake can be very dangerous charging environments. In the absence of photoelectron emission (dark) and in the absence of cool plasma (wake), the emission or collection of charge to reduce electrical potentials is difficult. Unique extreme charging events may occur during impulsive solar-energetic-electron (SEE) events when the lunar wake is dominated by relativistic electrons, with the potential to charge and differentially charge objects on and above the lunar surface to very-high negative electrical potentials. In this report the geometry of the magnetic connections from the Sun to the lunar nightside are explored; these magnetic connections are the pathways for SEEs from the Sun. Rudimentary charging calculations for objects in the relativistic-electron environment of the lunar wake are performed. To enable these charging calculations, secondary-electron yields for impacts by relativistic electrons are derived. Needed lunar electrical-grounding precautions for SEE events are discussed. Calls are made 1) for future dynamic simulations of the plasma wake in the presence of time-varying SEE-event relativistic electrons and time-varying solar-wind magnetic-field orientations and 2) for future charging calculations in the relativistic-electron wake environment and on the darkside lunar surface.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Solar Energetic Particle Acceleration at a Spherical Shock with the Shock Normal Angle $θ$ $B_n$ Evolving in Space and Time

We present a 2D kinematic model to study the acceleration of solar energetic particles (SEPs) at a shock driven by a coronal mass ejection. The shock is assumed to be spherical about an origin that is offset from the center of the Sun. This leads to a spatial and temporal evolution of the angle between the magnetic field and the shock-normal direction (θ Bn ) as it propagates through the Parker spiral magnetic field from the lower corona to 1 au. We find that the high-energy SEP intensity varies significantly along the shock front due to the evolution of θ Bn . Generally, the west flank of the shock preferentially accelerates particles to high energies compared to the east flank and shock nose. This can be understood in terms of the rate of acceleration, which is higher at the west flank. Double power-law energy spectra are reproduced in our model as a consequence of the local acceleration and transport effects. These results will help us to better understand the evolution of SEP acceleration and provide new insights into large SEP events observed by multiple spacecraft, especially those close to the Sun, such as Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Impact of the 8–10 March 2012 Geomagnetic Storm on Inner Zone Protons as Measured by Van Allen Probes

The Relativistic Electron Proton Telescope (REPT) instrument on the Van Allen Probes observed a double-peaked inner zone proton population throughout the 7 year lifetime of the mission. M. Hudson et al. (2023) showed that a strong SEP event accompanied by a CME-shock in early March 2012 provided the Solar Energetic Proton (SEP) source for the higher L trapped proton population, which then diffused radially inward to be observed by REPT at L = 2. The study followed trajectories of SEP protons launched isotropically from a sphere at 7 Re for 2.5 hr in fields calculated by the LFM-RCM global MHD model, which includes electric fields needed to model the transport and trapping of the protons by the shock, and then a radial diffusion simulation was run for 2 years using the result from the test-particle simulation as the initial condition. The simulation result was compared with REPT measurement in November 2013 and showed reasonable agreement. However, the simulation overestimated the Phase Space Density by a factor of four due to lack of field line curvature scattering during the storm in the model. In this study, a test-particle simulation is performed for 2 days following the injection and trapping of protons in March 2012 using TS05 fields to simulate the field line curvature scattering of the trapped SEP due to the buildup of the ring current during the geomagnetic storm. The resulting sample distribution was then weighted using the flux at the end of the two-hour MHD-test particle simulation. A radial diffusion simulation is then run using the initial profile that included the loss effect, with improved comparison with REPT measurements after 2 years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗