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Results for “spacecraft uncertainty propagation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Realistic Covariance Generation for the GPM Spacecraft

A covariance realism process for NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) spacecraft is detailed. The GPM spacecraft is in a low earth orbit, and performs collision avoidance maneuvers few times a year. Currently GPM is below the International Space Station (ISS). So, in addition to cataloged debris objects, GPM must contend with smallsat/cubesat objects that are deployed from the ISS. Both operational scenarios require complete knowledge of the expected GPM prediction errors as a function of time. In this study, we present a method for generating realistic predicted covariance that uses linear propagation of the covariance with the addition of process noise. Further analyses are presented for the process noise ''tuning'' that generates an inflation factor based on the observed error statistics of the predictive satellite trajectories when compared to the definitive ones. Different tuning strategies are considered and compared via a Goodness-of-Fit testing for the Gaussian properties of the scaled covariance. SpaceNav's realistic covariance generation approach takes into account the contribution of predicted maneuver errors in the increased propagation uncertainty. Corresponding maneuver uncertainty is injected into the state uncertainty, and is used within the collision avoidance process to determine the collision risk for close approach events that follow a maneuver. This is a critical step in the maneuver planning process that provides the satellite operator with an accurate quantification of the collision probability for planned maneuvers. Using this information, an informed decision can be made to proceed with a maneuver if the collision risk is acceptable. This approach is validated by Monte-Carlo simulations and results are presented.

spacecraft uncertainty propagation↗
NASA NTRS1972

Derivation of mission fluences from flux models: Propagation of uncertainties

The calculation of fluences from the flux models for spacecraft designers, and the propagation of uncertainties in the flux models to larger uncertainties in the final answer are discussed. Ionization and displacement damage in silicon, fluence, and a fluence of an equivalent energy are considered. Data in graph form are presented on stopping power and range curves for electrons and protons in silicon, relative electron and proton damage in silicon, and electron fluences expressed as 3 MeV equivalent and proton fluences expressed as 20 MeV equivalent for flybys in Jupiter's magnetic equatorial plane. It is concluded that the problem includes the uncertainty in peak flux, which has an immediate linear effect; uncertainty in the spatial distribution of the flux which gives great divergency between the upper-limit model and the nominal model and in the case of protons, may preclude any mission planning in order to make the situation better; and the uncertainty in the energy spectrum both in shape and energy location of the peak, if any, and which has little importance for mission planning if the spectrum is fairly constant.

Barengoltz, J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Spacecraft Charging Sensitivity to Material Properties

Evaluating spacecraft charging behavior of a vehicle in the space environment requires knowledge of the material properties relevant to the charging process. Implementing surface and internal charging models requires a user to specify a number of material electrical properties including electrical resistivity parameters (dark and radiation induced), dielectric constant, secondary electron yields, photoemission yields, and breakdown strength in order to correctly evaluate the electric discharge threat posed by the increasing electric fields generated by the accumulating charge density. In addition, bulk material mass density and/or chemical composition must be known in order to analyze radiation shielding properties when evaluating internal charging. We will first describe the physics of spacecraft charging and show how uncertainties in material properties propagate through spacecraft charging algorithms to impact the results obtained from charging models. We then provide examples using spacecraft charging codes to demonstrate their sensitivity to material properties. The goal of this presentation is to emphasize the importance in having good information on relevant material properties in order to best characterize on orbit charging threats.

Minow, Joseph I.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Realistic Covariance Generation for the GPM Spacecraft

We present several different methods for generating realistic predictive covariance, including Monte-Carlo simulations and more direct linear methods which require the addition of process noise. The Monte-Carlo simulation starts with an epoch uncertainty sample basis and propagates each trial to a time of interest in the future. The variance-covariance of the state elements as well as other higher order sample statistics can be readily computed from the propagated sample. While this method preserves the nonlinear effects on the propagated uncertainty, it is computationally intensive as a statistically significant sample size must be considered in the propagation process. Moreover, if the epoch covariance is optimistic, this can result in an underestimation of the prediction error. Another method is to propagate a state sensitivity matrix simultaneously with the satellite state, which allows the epoch covariances to be propagated forward in a linear fashion. This method does not preserve the non-linearity of the satellite state uncertainty but is much less computationally intensive. The propagated state covariance is the scaled to represent the realistic level of GPM state uncertainty via a "e-tuning process." The tuning process generates an inflation factor based on the observed error statistics of the predictive satellite trajectories when compared to the definitive ones. Difference tuning strategies are considered and compared via Goodness-of-Fit method testing for the Gaussian properties of the scaled covariance.

prediction error↗
NASA NTRS1994

Solar activity and coronal mass ejections on the western hemisphere of the Sun in mid-August 1989: Association with interplanetary observations at the ICE and IMP 8 spacecraft

During the 10-day period from August 12 to 21, 1989, a sequence of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) was observed above the west limb of the Sun by the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) coronagraph. Most of these CMEs apparently originated in the vicinity of one particularly active region during its passage from near central meridian to behind the west limb of the Sun. We present observations made at 1 AU during this period by the International Cometary Explorer (ICE) (formerly International Sun Earth Explorer-3 (ISEE 3)) and Interplanetary Monitoring Platform (IMP 8) spacecraft which were separated by approximately 75 deg in heliolongitude. Following CMEs on August 12 associated with solar events at approximately W40 deg, IMP 8 (in Earth orbit) detected a strong shock followed by signatures in magnetic field, solar wind plasma, and energetic ion data which suggest that CME-related material ('ejecta') forming the shock driver engulfed the spacecraft. This spacecraft only observed weak shocks, and no ejecta, from later CMEs originating further west of the spacecraft. In contrast ICE, off the west limb at approximately W75 deg, observed the shock from the W40 deg event but failed to encounter the shock driver, whereas clear ejecta signatures were observed following events further west, closer to the spacecraft heliolongitude. The disappearance of these signatures (which include bidirectional energetic ion flows, bidirectional solar wind heat fluxes, quiet, enhanced magnetic fields and anomalously cool plasma) at IMP 8 and their emergence at ICE as the solar source region moved westward supports the association of such signatures with ejecta related to CMEs. The dual-spacecraft observations are also consistent with the conclusion of Richardson and Cane (1993) that ejecta at 1 AU typically extend approximately 50 degs in longitude from the solar source. Some plausible associations between particular intervals of ejecta signatures at ICE and individual CMEs are made. However, these associations are complicated by the large number of CMEs present, by intermittent ICE data coverage, and by uncertainties in the ejecta propagation speeds to the spacecraft.

Richardson, I. G.↗
NASA NTRS1989

External control of the Saturn kilometric radiation by the solar wind - Comparison between Voyager 1 and 2 observations

The long-term modulation of Saturn's nonthermal radio emission in the kilometric wavelength range has been studied based upon data obtained by Voyagers 1 and 2. A comparison of the ballistic and hydrodynamic propagation of solar wind features from the spacecraft to Saturn allows the uncertainty inherent in the projection to be determined. The results confirm the previous suggestion that momentum, ram pressure, and kinetic energy flux are the primary solar wind parameters that drive the nonthermal radio emission. It is suggested that, under certain conditions and for limited periods of time, the magnetic properties and time derivatives of the solar wind have increased importance.

Rucker, H. O.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Comparison of two on-orbit attitude sensor alignment methods

Compared here are two methods of on-orbit alignment of vector attitude sensors. The first method uses the angular difference between simultaneous measurements from two or more sensors. These angles are compared to the angular differences between the respective reference positions of the sensed objects. The alignments of the sensors are adjusted to minimize the difference between the two sets of angles. In the second method, the sensor alignment is part of a state vector that includes the attitude. The alignments are adjusted along with the attitude to minimize all observation residuals. It is shown that the latter method can result in much less alignment uncertainty when gyroscopes are used for attitude propagation during the alignment estimation. The additional information for this increased accuracy comes from knowledge of relative attitude obtained from the spacecraft gyroscopes. The theoretical calculations of this difference in accuracy are presented. Also presented are numerical estimates of the alignment uncertainties of the fixed-head star trackers on the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer spacecraft using both methods.

Krack, Kenneth↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Navigation for the ACS3 Solar Sail Mission

NASA’s Advanced Composite Solar Sail System (ACS3) mission consists of a spacecraft that plans to be launched in early 2024. The spacecraft carries an 80 m2 solar sail that can produce effective thrust to alter the initial 1000 km sun-synchronous orbit. The main objective of the mission is to demonstrate the capabilities of the solar sail to effectively change various orbital parameters such as the semi-major axis and the inclination. Various composite materials were used to produce the sail, together with lightweight booms that will deploy from a 12U CubeSat bus. The astrodynamics team at NASA Ames Research Center has built a Flight Dynamics System (FDS) to provide mission navigation and to produce regular ephemeris once in orbit. The FDS can compute the trajectories that the spacecraft will perform once the sail is deployed. To achieve that, GPS data is obtained from the spacecraft telemetry and then is used with a Kalman filter and a smoother to obtain an orbit determination solution. The outcome of this process reduces the position and velocity uncertainty in a daily cadence. After that, the state vector output is used to feed a propagation model that includes the updated attitude and orbit of the spacecraft at that given moment. The trajectory model considers the updated attitude plan of the spacecraft as well as the environment conditions such as the solar weather to compute the associated drag and solar radiation pressure. This paper explains in detail the implementation of the FDS, as well as the solar sail solar radiation pressure trajectory model. We also present the results of several potential trajectory models under various assumptions of orbit parameters, attitude, environment, and material properties. In addition, we introduce a trajectory model for potential interplanetary use of an equivalent solar sail in the future. The outcome of this process will be critical to achieving the objective of determining effective altitude change produced by the solar sail.

Andres Dono Perez↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Navigation for the ACS3 Solar Sail Mission

NASA’s Advanced Composite Solar Sail System (ACS3) mission consists of a spacecraft that plans to be launched no earlier than April 2024. The spacecraft carries an 81 m2 solar sail that can produce effective ΔV to alter the initial 1000 km sun-synchronous orbit. The main objective of the mission is to demonstrate the capabilities of the solar sail to effectively change the semi-major axis of its initial orbit. Various composite materials were used to produce the sail, together with lightweight booms that will deploy from a 12U CubeSat bus. The ACS3 navigation team at NASA Ames Research Center has built a Flight Dynamics System (FDS) to provide mission navigation and to produce regular ephemeris once in orbit. The FDS can compute the orbit transfers that the spacecraft will perform once the sail is deployed. To achieve that, GPS data is obtained from the spacecraft telemetry and then is used with a Kalman filter and a smoother to obtain an orbit determination solution. The outcome of this process reduces the position and velocity uncertainty in a daily cadence. After that, the state vector output is used to feed a propagation model that includes the updated attitude and orbit of the spacecraft at that given moment. The trajectory model considers the updated attitude plan of the spacecraft as well as the environment conditions such as the solar weather to compute the associated drag and solar radiation pressure. This paper explains in detail the implementation of the FDS, as well as the solar sail solar radiation pressure trajectory model. We also present the results of several potential trajectory models under various assumptions of orbit parameters, attitude, environment, and material properties. In addition, we introduce a trajectory model for potential interplanetary use of an equivalent solar sail in the future. The outcome of this process will be critical to achieving the objective of determining effective semi-major axis change produced by the solar sail.

Andres Dono↗
NASA NTRS2014

Dissertation Defense: Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This paper describes an approach to quantify the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft without the use of test data. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional validation by test only mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions.Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computational Fluid Dynamics can be used to verify these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. This research includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available and open source solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT, STARCCM+, and OPENFOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid Dynamics model using the methodology found in Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations. This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System spacecraft system.Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, three-dimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

Fluid Dynamics↗
NASA NTRS2014

Dissertation Defense Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This paper describes an approach to quantify the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft without the use of test data. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional "validation by test only" mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions. Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computational Fluid Dynamics can be used to verify these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. This research includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available and open source solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT, STARCCM+, and OPENFOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid Dynamics model using the methodology found in "Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations". This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System /spacecraft system. Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, three-dimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

CFD↗
NASA NTRS2013

Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This proposal describes an approach to validate the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft. The research described here is absolutely cutting edge. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional"validation by test only'' mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions. Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computationaf Fluid Dynamics can be used to veritY these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. The proposed research project includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT and OPEN FOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid . . . Dynamics model using the methodology found in "Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations". This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System /spacecraft system. Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. To date, the author is the only person to look at the uncertainty in the entire computational domain. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, threedimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

Groves, Curtis E.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Charge-exchange plasma environment for an ion drive spacecraft

A model was reviewed which describes the propagation of the mercury charge-exchange plasma and extended to describe the flow of the molybdenum component of the charge-exchange plasma. The uncertainties in the models for various conditions are discussed. Such topics as current drain to the solar array, charge-exchange plasma material deposition, and the effects of space plasma on the charge-exchange plasma propagation are addressed.

Kaufman, H. R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Solar and Heliospheric Data Requirements: Going Further Than L1

Current operational space weather forecasting relies on solar wind observations made by the ACE spacecraft located at the L1 point providing 30-40 minutes warning time. Some use is also made of SOHO and STEREO solar imaging that potentially can give multiple days of warning time. However, our understanding of the propagation and evolution of solar wind transients is still limited resulting in a typical timing uncertainty of approximately 10 hours. In order to improve this critical understanding, a number of NASA missions are being planned. Specifically the Solar Probe Plus and Solar Orbiter missions will investigate the inner Heliospheric evolution of coronal mass ejections and the acceleration and propagation of solar energetic particles. In addition, a number of multi-spacecraft concepts have been studied that have the potential to significantly improve the accuracy of long-term space weather forecasts.

Szabo, A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Locating the LCROSS Impact Craters

The Lunar CRater Observations and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) mission impacted a spent Centaur rocket stage into a permanently shadowed region near the lunar south pole. The Sheperding Spacecraft (SSC) separated approx. 9 hours before impact and performed a small braking maneuver in order to observe the Centaur impact plume, looking for evidence of water and other volatiles, before impacting itself. This paper describes the registration of imagery of the LCROSS impact region from the mid- and near-infrared cameras onboard the SSC, as well as from the Goldstone radar. We compare the Centaur impact features, positively identified in the first two, and with a consistent feature in the third, which are interpreted as a 20 m diameter crater surrounded by a 160 m diameter ejecta region. The images are registered to Lunar Reconnaisance Orbiter (LRO) topographical data which allows determination of the impact location. This location is compared with the impact location derived from ground-based tracking and propagation of the spacecraft's trajectory and with locations derived from two hybrid imagery/trajectory methods. The four methods give a weighted average Centaur impact location of −84.6796 deg, −48.7093 deg, with a 1σ uncertainty of 115 m along latitude, and 44 m along longitude, just 146 m from the target impact site. Meanwhile, the trajectory-derived SSC impact location is −84.719 deg, −49.61 deg, with a 1 alpha uncertainty of 3 m along the Earth vector and 75 m orthogonal to that, 766 m from the target location and 2.803 km south-west of the Centaur impact. We also detail the Centaur impact angle and SSC instrument pointing errors. Six high-level LCROSS mission requirements are shown to be met by wide margins. We hope that these results facilitate further analyses of the LCROSS experiment data and follow-up observations of the impact region

LCROSS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Charged-Particle Calibration Of Spacecraft-Ranging Signals

Report discusses determination of effective densities of electrically charged particles along paths of microwave signals transmitted to and from spacecraft and use of those densities to calibrate measured signal-propagation times, used to compute distances between ground stations and spacecraft. Oriented toward selection of method of calibration optimal with respect to three criteria: minimization of range error and of root-mean-square uncertainty in range error; minimization of amount, complexity, and/or cost of equipment; and capability of calibrating changes in group velocities of signals on ranging channel.

Nguyen, Tien M.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Charge-exchange plasma environment for an ion drive spacecraft

The charge exchange plasma environment around a spacecraft that uses mercury ion thrusters for propulsion is described. The interactions between the plasma environment and the spacecraft are determined and a model which describes the propagation of the mercury charge exchange plasma is discussed. The model is extended to describe the flow of the molybdenum component of the charge exchange plasma. The uncertainties in the models for various conditions are discussed and current drain to the solar array, charge exchange plasma material deposition, and the effects of space plasma on the charge exchange plasma propagation are addressed.

Kaufman, H. R.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Autonomous attitude determination from star data for a dual-spin planetary spacecraft

A batch mode process which identifies three reference stars within a rotor-mounted star scanner's field-of-view based on the criteria of intensity and geometry was established. The sequential mode which continuously tracks the reference stars provides star transit times and estimates of rotor's spin rate. A least-square estimator was formulated which sequentially determines the spacecraft attitude from sucessive star crossings by minimizing the error in the star and scanner slit normal orthogonality. This spacecraft attitude also provides intermittent updates for the gyro propagated inertial attitude of the despun science platform. Simulation results are presented, showing successful star identification and attitude convergence in the presence of nutation and star transit time uncertainty.

Wong, E. C.↗