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Can socio-economic indicators of vulnerability help predict spatial variations in the duration and severity of power outages due to tropical cyclones?
Abstract Tropical cyclones are the leading cause of major power outages in the U.S., and their effects can be devastating for communities. However, few studies have holistically examined the degree to which socio-economic variables can explain spatial variations in disruptions and reveal potential inequities thereof. Here, we apply machine learning techniques to analyze 20 tropical cyclones and predict county-level outage duration and percentage of customers losing power using a comprehensive set of weather, environmental, and socio-economic factors. Our models are able to accurately predict these outage response variables, but after controlling for the effects of weather conditions and environmental factors in the models, we find the effects of socio-economic variables to be largely immaterial. However, county-level data could be overlooking effects of socio-economic disparities taking place at more granular spatial scales, and we must remain aware of the fact that when faced with similar outage events, socio-economically vulnerable communities will still find it more difficult to cope with disruptions compared to less vulnerable ones.
Spatial Predictive Modeling and Remote Sensing of Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed
This project was focused on modeling the processes by which increasing demand for developed land uses, brought about by changes in the regional economy and the socio-demographics of the region, are translated into a changing spatial pattern of land use. Our study focused on a portion of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed where the spatial patterns of sprawl represent a set of conditions generally prevalent in much of the U.S. Working in the region permitted us access to (i) a time-series of multi-scale and multi-temporal (including historical) satellite imagery and (ii) an established network of collaborating partners and agencies willing to share resources and to utilize developed techniques and model results. In addition, a unique parcel-level tax assessment database and linked parcel boundary maps exists for two counties in the Maryland portion of this region that made it possible to establish a historical cross-section time-series database of parcel level development decisions. Scenario analyses of future land use dynamics provided critical quantitative insight into the impact of alternative land management and policy decisions. These also have been specifically aimed at addressing growth control policies aimed at curbing exurban (sprawl) development. Our initial technical approach included three components: (i) spatial econometric modeling of the development decision, (ii) remote sensing of suburban change and residential land use density, including comparisons of past change from Landsat analyses and more traditional sources, and (iii) linkages between the two through variable initialization and supplementation of parcel level data. To these we added a fourth component, (iv) cellular automata modeling of urbanization, which proved to be a valuable addition to the project. This project has generated both remote sensing and spatially explicit socio-economic data to estimate and calibrate the parameters for two different types of land use change models and has undertaken analyses of these models. One (the CA model) is driven largely by observations on past patterns of land use change, while the other (the EC model) is driven by mechanisms of the land use change decision at the parcel level. Our project may be the first serious attempt at developing both types of models for the same area, using as much common data as possible. We have identified the strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches and plan to continue to revise each model in the light of new data and new lessons learned through continued collaboration. Questions, approaches, findings, publication and presentation lists concerning the research are also presented.
The Q 10 of in situ microbial soil respiration varies with mean annual temperature, precipitation, pH, and plant cover: a meta-analysis and spatial prediction of Q 10
The temperature sensitivity of soil microbial respiration, commonly quantified using the Q 10 coefficient, is a key parameter in carbon cycle models. Uncovering how environmental factors affect in situ Q 10 values can therefore provide critical insight into potential shifts in global carbon stocks under climate change. We collected data from previously published field experiments that measured soil microbial respiration across a range of temperatures. We hypothesized that the Q 10 coefficient of in situ soil microbial respiration would vary based on environmental factors including mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), plant cover type, pH, soil C:N, and latitude. Linear regression revealed that Q 10 correlates negatively with MAT and MAP and positively with pH and absolute latitude. Additionally, average Q 10 varied significantly across different plant cover types; it was highest in mountain grasslands and lowest in tropical moist forests. Variation in microbial Q 10 across environmental factors may arise from underlying mechanisms such as enzyme kinetics, substrate availability and complexity, and microbial adaptation. To capture patterns in Q 10 more comprehensively, we developed a multiple linear regression model of Q 10 based on the most individually significant environmental drivers and applied it to public datasets to generate a global map of predicted Q 10 . Q 10 was higher in high-latitude and high-altitude regions, where large permafrost carbon stores are vulnerable to thawing and decomposition. We also compared fits between the Q 10 equation and a model produced from macromolecular rate theory (MMRT). We found that the MMRT model had the superior fit and may be better suited to model temperature sensitivity of complex biological reactions. Overall, our results emphasize that relationships between microbial Q 10 and environmental variables should be accounted for in climate models. Incorporating these variations in the Q 10 parameter, rather than using a fixed value, will help predict whether CO 2 emissions will be buffered or exacerbated by soil microbial respiration under climate change.
Knowledge-guided graph machine learning for spatially distributed prediction of daily discharge and nitrogen export dynamics
Spatially distributed prediction of streamflow and nitrogen export dynamics is essential for precision management of agricultural watersheds. While temporal deep learning models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) have shown strong performance at basin scales, their ability to generalize spatially is limited by insufficient representation of spatial dependencies and flow paths, particularly under data-scarce conditions. To address this gap, we propose HydroGraphNet, a knowledge-guided graph machine learning framework that integrates process-based knowledge and explicit spatial learning into temporal modeling. This framework incorporates directed graph topology to encode watershed connectivity and upstream inflows, with mass balance constraints to improve physical consistency. To enhance generalization in sparsely monitored regions, HydroGraphNet is pretrained on synthetic data generated by the SWAT+ (Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus) model. We evaluated HydroGraphNet in the Upper Sangamon River Basin (44 HUC-12 subwatersheds, 2001–2020) against two LSTM baselines: a lumped basin-level model and a distributed variant. When benchmarked on SWAT+ simulations in pretraining, HydroGraphNet improved test NSEs by 8.9% (discharge) and 13.7% (NO₃–N load) in temporal extrapolation, and by 27.1% and 34.7% in spatial extrapolation, relative to the Lumped LSTM baseline. After fine-tuning with USGS monitoring data, the model achieved mean test NSE (KGE) scores of 0.768 (0.861) for discharge and 0.626 (0.664) for NO₃–N load, substantially outperforming baselines. Attribution analysis further highlighted the importance of upstream inflow representation and graph-based spatial learning in capturing cross-subwatershed dependencies. The model also reproduced seasonal hydrological and biogeochemical patterns consistent with known processes, demonstrating its robustness and process fidelity for spatially distributed prediction. Altogether, HydroGraphNet advances the integration of physical knowledge and spatially explicit learning in hydrological modeling, offering a generalizable framework for distributed modeling to support spatially targeted water quality management in data-scarce watersheds.
Understanding and Predicting the Spatially Resolved Adsorption Properties of Nanoporous Materials
Using knowledge from statistical thermodynamics and crystallography, we develop an image–image translation model, called SorbIIT, that uses three-dimensional grids of adsorbate–adsorbent interaction energies as input to predict the spatially resolved loading surface of nanoporous materials over a broad range of temperatures and pressures. SorbIIT consists of a closed-form differential model for loading-surface prediction and a U-Net to generate spatial differential distributions from the energy grids. SorbIIT is trained using the energy grids and adsorbate distributions (obtained from high-throughput simulations) of 50 synthesized and 70 hypothetical zeolites and applied for predicting the adsorption of carbon dioxide, hydrogen sulfide, n-butane, 2-methylpropane, krypton, and xenon in other zeolites from 256 to 400 K. In conclusion, employing a quadratic isotherm model for the local differentiation, SorbIIT yields mean R 2 values of 0.998 for total adsorption and 0.6904 for local adsorption with a resolution of 0.2 Å, and a value of 0.721 for the structural similarity of the local loading distribution.
En Route Spacing System and Method
A method of and computer software for minimizing aircraft deviations needed to comply with an en route miles-in-trail spacing requirement imposed during air traffic control operations via establishing a spacing reference geometry, predicting spatial locations of a plurality of aircraft at a predicted time of intersection of a path of a first of said plurality of aircraft with the spacing reference geometry, and determining spacing of each of the plurality of aircraft based on the predicted spatial locations.
En route spacing system and method
A method of and computer software for minimizing aircraft deviations needed to comply with an en route miles-in-trail spacing requirement imposed during air traffic control operations via establishing a spacing reference geometry, predicting spatial locations of a plurality of aircraft at a predicted time of intersection of a path of a first of said plurality of aircraft with the spacing reference geometry, and determining spacing of each of the plurality of aircraft based on the predicted spatial locations.
Nonsimultaneous coupled laser velocimeter measurement technique: Error prediction for spatially noncoincident measurements
A technique for obtaining orthogonal velocity components from nonorthogonal measurements using the NASA Ames Research Center Long-Range Laser Velocimeter (LRLV) is briefly discussed. A description is then presented of the error that occurs when these nonorthogonal measurements are spatially noncoincident because of positioning inaccuracies, and equations are developed for predicting this error. Sample data are presented and a prediction of the expected error for two typical applications is made. To cover other cases in general, a parametric study is conducted and the results are presented in a tabular format.
Too big, too small, or just right? A benchmark assessment of density functional theory for predicting the spatial extent of the electron density of small chemical systems
Multipole moments are the first-order responses of the energy to spatial derivatives of the electric field strength. The quality of density functional theory prediction of molecular multipole moments thus characterizes errors in modeling the electron density itself, as well as the performance in describing molecules interacting with external electric fields. However, only the lowest non-zero moment is translationally invariant, making the higher-order moments origin-dependent. Therefore, instead of using the 3 × 3 quadrupole moment matrix, we utilize the translationally invariant 3 × 3 matrix of second cumulants (or spatial variances) of the electron density as the quantity of interest (denoted by K). The principal components of K are the square of the spatial extent of the electron density along each axis. A benchmark dataset of the principal components of K for 100 small molecules at the coupled cluster singles and doubles with perturbative triples at the complete basis set limit is developed, resulting in 213 independent K components. The performance of 47 popular and recent density functionals is assessed against this Var213 dataset. Several functionals, especially double hybrids, and also SCAN and SCAN0 predict reliable second cumulants, although some modern, empirically parameterized functionals yield more disappointing performance. The H, Li, and Be atoms, in particular, are challenging for nearly all methods, indicating that future functional development could benefit from the inclusion of their density information in training or testing protocols.
A machine learning approach for particle accelerator errant beam prediction using spatial phase deviation
Particle accelerators are extremely complex systems that are expected to operate on high availability. Predicting impending failures only by utilizing data collected from diagnostic equipment already on board can help operators to avoid installing expensive sensors, unscheduled downtime and associated costs. For this purpose we explore the predictive power of Machine Learning algorithms to detect faulty beams prior to the failure. In this study, we propose a Machine Learning approach to model mapping from a pair of sensors located across the accelerator. While the model is trained to represent normal operation, we evaluate the predictive performance on known faulty beam pulses. We also investigate the model performance on unseen data through k-fold cross-validation. Then we recap the analysis with a neural architecture search and hyperparameter optimization study to fine tune our initial model. In conclusion, this paper will also introduce a sustainable framework that can standardize Machine Learning workflow applied to particle accelerators.
Synthetic Data Generation for 3D Mesh Prediction and Spatial Reasoning During Multi-Agent Robotic Missions
In-space assembly operations require accurate reasoning over the pose, location, and structural organization of both the autonomous agents and assembly materials. In a full six-degree-of-freedom space, an accurate understanding of the full three-dimensional structure of the object of interest greatly enriches information for pose estimation and collision planning. Current methods of predicting pose estimation require a priori understanding of the shape of the object. Additionally, visual information in the space environment is impacted by variations in contrast and illumination. Using synthetic data allows us to rapidly generate large datasets with in varying environments and lighting conditions.This work details the generation of synthetic data used to explore the use of a region-based convolutional neural networks to detect objects of interest and predict a voxel-based three-dimensional mesh in order to understand their full three-dimensional shape. This mesh provides useful spatial information during in-space assembly operations without requiring either the complexity of maintaining models over the progress of building an object or observations from multiple angles. The generated meshes are then compared to that of ground truth in order to measure its performance.
Synthetic Data Generation for 3D Mesh Prediction and Spatial Reasoning During Multi-Agent Robotic Missions
In-space assembly operations require accurate reasoning over the pose, location, and structural organization of both the autonomous agents and assembly materials. In a full six-degree-of-freedom space, an accurate understanding of the full three-dimensional structure of the object of interest greatly enriches information for pose estimation and collision planning. Current methods of predicting pose estimation require a priori understanding of the shape of the object. Additionally, visual information in the space environment is impacted by variations in contrast and illumination. Using synthetic data allows us to rapidly generate large datasets with in varying environments and lighting conditions. This work details the generation of synthetic data used to explore the use of a region-based convolutional neural networks to detect objects of interest and predict a voxel-based three-dimensional mesh in order to understand their full three-dimensional shape. This mesh provides useful spatial information during in-space assembly operations without requiring either the complexity of maintaining models over the progress of building an object or observations from multiple angles. The generated meshes are then compared to that of ground truth in order to measure its performance.
Spatially-Explicit Prediction of Capacity Density Advances Geographic Characterization of Wind Power Technical Potential
Mounting interest in ambitious clean energy goals is exposing critical gaps in our understanding of onshore wind power potential. Conventional approaches to evaluating wind power technical potential at the national scale rely on coarse geographic representations of land area requirements for wind power. These methods overlook sizable spatial variation in real-world capacity densities (i.e., nameplate power capacity per unit area) and assume that potential installation densities are uniform across space. Here, we propose a data-driven approach to overcome persistent challenges in characterizing localized deployment potentials over broad extents. We use machine learning to develop predictive relationships between observed capacity densities and geospatial variables. The model is validated against a comprehensive data set of United States (U.S.) wind facilities and subjected to interrogation techniques to reveal that key explanatory features behind geographic variation of capacity density are related to wind resource as well as urban accessibility and forest cover. We demonstrate application of the model by producing a high-resolution (2 km × 2 km) national map of capacity density for use in technical potential assessments for the United States. Our findings illustrate that this methodology offers meaningful improvements in the characterization of spatial aspects of technical potential, which are increasingly critical to draw reliable and actionable planning and research insights from renewable energy scenarios.
Elastic Changepoint Detection for Globally-indexed Functional Time Series Data with Climate Applications
Changepoint detection is a vital tool in the application of climate data analysis. Numerous types of climate observation data are most properly represented by functional time series, implying a need for accurate changepoint detection methods applicable to functional time series data. Such data taken at a global scale often contain both spatial heterogeneity and dependence as well as phase (time) misalignment. In this report, we present methods which can detect spatially-dependent changepoints while allowing different estimates of change time and change strength depending on location. Additionally, we provide extensions to this spatially-predicted model which controls for phase variability among observations. Our methods provide the ability to detect a single change, or control for epidemic changes (where a “return-to-normal” change is more likely to be detected than the initial change). We showcase results analyzing the June 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, where our methods demonstrate the ability to accurately detect both single and epidemic changepoints even in the presence of strong seasonal variability. We find that our spatially-predicted model improves the detection of relevant changepoints versus methods which do not take spatial information into account, and we find that controlling for phase variability helps to control the false discovery rate during the detection process.
Remote sensing inputs to landscape models which predict future spatial land use patterns for hydrologic models
A tropical forest area of Northern Thailand provided a test case of the application of the approach in more natural surroundings. Remote sensing imagery subjected to proper computer analysis has been shown to be a very useful means of collecting spatial data for the science of hydrology. Remote sensing products provide direct input to hydrologic models and practical data bases for planning large and small-scale hydrologic developments. Combining the available remote sensing imagery together with available map information in the landscape model provides a basis for substantial improvements in these applications.
On the Importance of Spatial Resolution for Flap Side Edge Noise Prediction
A spatial resolution study of flap tip flow and the effects on the farfield noise signature for an 18%-scale, semispan Gulfstream aircraft model are presented. The NASA FUN3D unstructured, compressible Navier-Stokes solver was used to perform the highly resolved, time-dependent, detached eddy simulations of the flow field associated with the flap for this high-fidelity aircraft model. Following our previous work on the same model, the latest computations were undertaken to determine the causes of deficiencies observed in our earlier predictions of the steady and unsteady surface pressures and off-surface flow field at the flap tip regions, in particular the outboard tip area, where the presence of a cavity at the side-edge produces very complex flow features and interactions. The present results show gradual improvement in steady loading at the outboard flap edge region with increasing spatial resolution, yielding more accurate fluctuating surface pressures, off-surface flow field, and farfield noise with improved high-frequency content when compared with wind tunnel measurements. The spatial resolution trends observed in the present study demonstrate that the deficiencies reported in our previous computations are mostly caused by inadequate spatial resolution and are not related to the turbulence model.