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Can socio-economic indicators of vulnerability help predict spatial variations in the duration and severity of power outages due to tropical cyclones?
Abstract Tropical cyclones are the leading cause of major power outages in the U.S., and their effects can be devastating for communities. However, few studies have holistically examined the degree to which socio-economic variables can explain spatial variations in disruptions and reveal potential inequities thereof. Here, we apply machine learning techniques to analyze 20 tropical cyclones and predict county-level outage duration and percentage of customers losing power using a comprehensive set of weather, environmental, and socio-economic factors. Our models are able to accurately predict these outage response variables, but after controlling for the effects of weather conditions and environmental factors in the models, we find the effects of socio-economic variables to be largely immaterial. However, county-level data could be overlooking effects of socio-economic disparities taking place at more granular spatial scales, and we must remain aware of the fact that when faced with similar outage events, socio-economically vulnerable communities will still find it more difficult to cope with disruptions compared to less vulnerable ones.
The Q 10 of in situ microbial soil respiration varies with mean annual temperature, precipitation, pH, and plant cover: a meta-analysis and spatial prediction of Q 10
The temperature sensitivity of soil microbial respiration, commonly quantified using the Q 10 coefficient, is a key parameter in carbon cycle models. Uncovering how environmental factors affect in situ Q 10 values can therefore provide critical insight into potential shifts in global carbon stocks under climate change. We collected data from previously published field experiments that measured soil microbial respiration across a range of temperatures. We hypothesized that the Q 10 coefficient of in situ soil microbial respiration would vary based on environmental factors including mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), plant cover type, pH, soil C:N, and latitude. Linear regression revealed that Q 10 correlates negatively with MAT and MAP and positively with pH and absolute latitude. Additionally, average Q 10 varied significantly across different plant cover types; it was highest in mountain grasslands and lowest in tropical moist forests. Variation in microbial Q 10 across environmental factors may arise from underlying mechanisms such as enzyme kinetics, substrate availability and complexity, and microbial adaptation. To capture patterns in Q 10 more comprehensively, we developed a multiple linear regression model of Q 10 based on the most individually significant environmental drivers and applied it to public datasets to generate a global map of predicted Q 10 . Q 10 was higher in high-latitude and high-altitude regions, where large permafrost carbon stores are vulnerable to thawing and decomposition. We also compared fits between the Q 10 equation and a model produced from macromolecular rate theory (MMRT). We found that the MMRT model had the superior fit and may be better suited to model temperature sensitivity of complex biological reactions. Overall, our results emphasize that relationships between microbial Q 10 and environmental variables should be accounted for in climate models. Incorporating these variations in the Q 10 parameter, rather than using a fixed value, will help predict whether CO 2 emissions will be buffered or exacerbated by soil microbial respiration under climate change.
Knowledge-guided graph machine learning for spatially distributed prediction of daily discharge and nitrogen export dynamics
Spatially distributed prediction of streamflow and nitrogen export dynamics is essential for precision management of agricultural watersheds. While temporal deep learning models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) have shown strong performance at basin scales, their ability to generalize spatially is limited by insufficient representation of spatial dependencies and flow paths, particularly under data-scarce conditions. To address this gap, we propose HydroGraphNet, a knowledge-guided graph machine learning framework that integrates process-based knowledge and explicit spatial learning into temporal modeling. This framework incorporates directed graph topology to encode watershed connectivity and upstream inflows, with mass balance constraints to improve physical consistency. To enhance generalization in sparsely monitored regions, HydroGraphNet is pretrained on synthetic data generated by the SWAT+ (Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus) model. We evaluated HydroGraphNet in the Upper Sangamon River Basin (44 HUC-12 subwatersheds, 2001–2020) against two LSTM baselines: a lumped basin-level model and a distributed variant. When benchmarked on SWAT+ simulations in pretraining, HydroGraphNet improved test NSEs by 8.9% (discharge) and 13.7% (NO₃–N load) in temporal extrapolation, and by 27.1% and 34.7% in spatial extrapolation, relative to the Lumped LSTM baseline. After fine-tuning with USGS monitoring data, the model achieved mean test NSE (KGE) scores of 0.768 (0.861) for discharge and 0.626 (0.664) for NO₃–N load, substantially outperforming baselines. Attribution analysis further highlighted the importance of upstream inflow representation and graph-based spatial learning in capturing cross-subwatershed dependencies. The model also reproduced seasonal hydrological and biogeochemical patterns consistent with known processes, demonstrating its robustness and process fidelity for spatially distributed prediction. Altogether, HydroGraphNet advances the integration of physical knowledge and spatially explicit learning in hydrological modeling, offering a generalizable framework for distributed modeling to support spatially targeted water quality management in data-scarce watersheds.
Understanding and Predicting the Spatially Resolved Adsorption Properties of Nanoporous Materials
Using knowledge from statistical thermodynamics and crystallography, we develop an image–image translation model, called SorbIIT, that uses three-dimensional grids of adsorbate–adsorbent interaction energies as input to predict the spatially resolved loading surface of nanoporous materials over a broad range of temperatures and pressures. SorbIIT consists of a closed-form differential model for loading-surface prediction and a U-Net to generate spatial differential distributions from the energy grids. SorbIIT is trained using the energy grids and adsorbate distributions (obtained from high-throughput simulations) of 50 synthesized and 70 hypothetical zeolites and applied for predicting the adsorption of carbon dioxide, hydrogen sulfide, n-butane, 2-methylpropane, krypton, and xenon in other zeolites from 256 to 400 K. In conclusion, employing a quadratic isotherm model for the local differentiation, SorbIIT yields mean R 2 values of 0.998 for total adsorption and 0.6904 for local adsorption with a resolution of 0.2 Å, and a value of 0.721 for the structural similarity of the local loading distribution.
Too big, too small, or just right? A benchmark assessment of density functional theory for predicting the spatial extent of the electron density of small chemical systems
Multipole moments are the first-order responses of the energy to spatial derivatives of the electric field strength. The quality of density functional theory prediction of molecular multipole moments thus characterizes errors in modeling the electron density itself, as well as the performance in describing molecules interacting with external electric fields. However, only the lowest non-zero moment is translationally invariant, making the higher-order moments origin-dependent. Therefore, instead of using the 3 × 3 quadrupole moment matrix, we utilize the translationally invariant 3 × 3 matrix of second cumulants (or spatial variances) of the electron density as the quantity of interest (denoted by K). The principal components of K are the square of the spatial extent of the electron density along each axis. A benchmark dataset of the principal components of K for 100 small molecules at the coupled cluster singles and doubles with perturbative triples at the complete basis set limit is developed, resulting in 213 independent K components. The performance of 47 popular and recent density functionals is assessed against this Var213 dataset. Several functionals, especially double hybrids, and also SCAN and SCAN0 predict reliable second cumulants, although some modern, empirically parameterized functionals yield more disappointing performance. The H, Li, and Be atoms, in particular, are challenging for nearly all methods, indicating that future functional development could benefit from the inclusion of their density information in training or testing protocols.
A machine learning approach for particle accelerator errant beam prediction using spatial phase deviation
Particle accelerators are extremely complex systems that are expected to operate on high availability. Predicting impending failures only by utilizing data collected from diagnostic equipment already on board can help operators to avoid installing expensive sensors, unscheduled downtime and associated costs. For this purpose we explore the predictive power of Machine Learning algorithms to detect faulty beams prior to the failure. In this study, we propose a Machine Learning approach to model mapping from a pair of sensors located across the accelerator. While the model is trained to represent normal operation, we evaluate the predictive performance on known faulty beam pulses. We also investigate the model performance on unseen data through k-fold cross-validation. Then we recap the analysis with a neural architecture search and hyperparameter optimization study to fine tune our initial model. In conclusion, this paper will also introduce a sustainable framework that can standardize Machine Learning workflow applied to particle accelerators.
Spatially-Explicit Prediction of Capacity Density Advances Geographic Characterization of Wind Power Technical Potential
Mounting interest in ambitious clean energy goals is exposing critical gaps in our understanding of onshore wind power potential. Conventional approaches to evaluating wind power technical potential at the national scale rely on coarse geographic representations of land area requirements for wind power. These methods overlook sizable spatial variation in real-world capacity densities (i.e., nameplate power capacity per unit area) and assume that potential installation densities are uniform across space. Here, we propose a data-driven approach to overcome persistent challenges in characterizing localized deployment potentials over broad extents. We use machine learning to develop predictive relationships between observed capacity densities and geospatial variables. The model is validated against a comprehensive data set of United States (U.S.) wind facilities and subjected to interrogation techniques to reveal that key explanatory features behind geographic variation of capacity density are related to wind resource as well as urban accessibility and forest cover. We demonstrate application of the model by producing a high-resolution (2 km × 2 km) national map of capacity density for use in technical potential assessments for the United States. Our findings illustrate that this methodology offers meaningful improvements in the characterization of spatial aspects of technical potential, which are increasingly critical to draw reliable and actionable planning and research insights from renewable energy scenarios.
Elastic Changepoint Detection for Globally-indexed Functional Time Series Data with Climate Applications
Changepoint detection is a vital tool in the application of climate data analysis. Numerous types of climate observation data are most properly represented by functional time series, implying a need for accurate changepoint detection methods applicable to functional time series data. Such data taken at a global scale often contain both spatial heterogeneity and dependence as well as phase (time) misalignment. In this report, we present methods which can detect spatially-dependent changepoints while allowing different estimates of change time and change strength depending on location. Additionally, we provide extensions to this spatially-predicted model which controls for phase variability among observations. Our methods provide the ability to detect a single change, or control for epidemic changes (where a “return-to-normal” change is more likely to be detected than the initial change). We showcase results analyzing the June 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, where our methods demonstrate the ability to accurately detect both single and epidemic changepoints even in the presence of strong seasonal variability. We find that our spatially-predicted model improves the detection of relevant changepoints versus methods which do not take spatial information into account, and we find that controlling for phase variability helps to control the false discovery rate during the detection process.
Elevating SolTrace's Capabilities for the Next Generation of Concentrating Solar Analysis
SolTrace is an open-source Monte Carlo ray tracing software developed at NREL. SolTrace can characterize concentrating solar thermal (CST) collector optical performance and is CST technology agnostic. Shown in Fig. 1, SolTrace is a foundational tool in NREL's CST system and component modeling suite. SolTrace's generic surface elements can flexibly model novel collector and receiver designs to predict spatial and temporal flux distributions - critical to understand for CST component design, performance prediction, and system integration. Since its initial development, SolTrace has over 1,650 references on Google Scholar, over 9,800 downloads since 2017, and has served the CST research and development community as a benchmark of 3rd party verification. SolTrace provides users with many options for defining surface shape and boundaries. However, SolTrace provides limited documentation which can result in a steep learning curve for new users. Additionally, SolTrace lacks the computational performance required to evaluate optical performance of a CST system over the course of a year and/or iteratively over design parameters in a timely manner. To address this, we are working towards a new release of SolTrace that enables increased computational throughput by implementing ray tracing acceleration structures and enabling GPU parallelization. Additionally, we are working to improve SolTrace's usability, accessibility, and maintainability by (1) automating solar position time-dependent simulation processes, (2) creating general CST collector templates of grouped elements, (3) updating the user interface to better visualize model inputs and outputs, and (4) creating a user support network through forums, "how to" videos, and documentation.
Rising CO 2 and warming reduce global canopy demand for nitrogen
Nitrogen (N) limitation has been considered as a constraint on terrestrial carbon uptake in response to rising CO 2 and climate change. By extension, it has been suggested that declining carboxylation capacity (V cmax ) and leaf N content in enhanced-CO 2 experiments and satellite records signify increasing N limitation of primary production. We predicted Vcmax using the coordination hypothesis and estimated changes in leaf-level photosynthetic N for 1982–2016 assuming proportionality with leaf-level V cmax at 25°C. The whole-canopy photosynthetic N was derived using satellite-based leaf area index (LAI) data and an empirical extinction coefficient for V cmax , and converted to annual N demand using estimated leaf turnover times. The predicted spatial pattern of V cmax shares key features with an independent reconstruction from remotely sensed leaf chlorophyll content. Predicted leaf photosynthetic N declined by 0.27% yr -1 , while observed leaf (total) N declined by 0.2–0.25% yr -1 . Predicted global canopy N (and N demand) declined from 1996 onwards, despite increasing LAI. Leaf-level responses to rising CO 2 , and to a lesser extent temperature, may have reduced the canopy requirement for N by more than rising LAI has increased it. This finding provides an alternative explanation for declining leaf N that does not depend on increasing N limitation.
Contact patterns in wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) from GPS tracking reveal spatial and temporal dynamics of social behaviour
Wild pig ( Sus scrofa Linnaeus, 1758) social behaviour affects disease transmission and landscape-level population management. Recent research has incorporated analysis of social structure to better understand the risk of disease transmission in wild pigs, although the relationship between overall social structure of wild pigs remains unclear. Here, we seek to improve understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of wild pig social structure and contact rates to better inform management strategies. Using GPS tracking data, we measured home range overlap, and estimated contact rates of wild pigs at four study sites in the southern USA to identify pairwise social associations (i.e., contacts) based on synchronous movement. Contact rate was strongly associated with home range overlap, but exhibited substantial variation, especially at moderate levels of home range overlap. We found that female–female dyads had higher contact rates and longer duration phases of social association compared to female–male and male–male dyads. We found male–male dyads tended to experience social associations farther from their home range centers than female–female or female–male dyads. Social associations between wild pig dyads are highly dynamic in their spatial and temporal structure. Further, dyads with strong social associations still experience substantial time apart. Our findings highlight the challenges of predicting spatial and social associations in wild pig social pairs due to their dynamic social structure over space and time.
Estimating basis functions in massive fields under the spatial mixed effects model
Abstract Spatial prediction is commonly achieved under the assumption of a Gaussian random field by obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of parameters, and then using the kriging equations to arrive at predicted values. For massive datasets, fixed rank kriging using the expectation–maximization algorithm for estimation has been proposed as an alternative to the usual but computationally prohibitive kriging method. The method reduces computation cost of estimation by redefining the spatial process as a linear combination of basis functions and spatial random effects. A disadvantage of this method is that it imposes constraints on the relationship between the observed locations and the knots. We develop an alternative method that utilizes the spatial mixed effects model, but allows for additional flexibility by estimating the range of the spatial dependence between the observations and the knots via an alternating expectation conditional maximization algorithm. Experiments show that our methodology improves estimation without sacrificing prediction accuracy while also minimizing the additional computational burden of extra parameter estimation. The methodology is applied to a temperature dataset archived by the United States National Climate Data Center, with improved results over previous methodology.
Reduced ecosystem resilience quantifies fine-scale heterogeneity in tropical forest mortality responses to drought
Sensitivity of forest mortality to drought in carbon-dense tropical forests remains fraught with uncertainty, while extreme droughts are predicted to be more frequent and intense. Here, in this study, the potential of temporal autocorrelation of high-frequency variability in Landsat Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), an indicator of ecosystem resilience, to predict spatial and temporal variations of forest biomass mortality is evaluated against in situ census observations for 64 site-year combinations in Costa Rican tropical dry forests during the 2015 ENSO drought. Temporal autocorrelation, within the optimal moving window of 24 months, demonstrated robust predictive power for in situ mortality (leave-one- out cross-validation R 2 = 0.54), which allows for estimates of annual biomass mortality patterns at 30 m resolution. Subsequent spatial analysis showed substantial fine-scale heterogeneity of forest mortality patterns, largely driven by drought intensity and ecosystem properties related to plant water use such as forest deciduousness and topography. Highly deciduous forest patches demonstrated much lower mortality sensitivity to drought stress than less deciduous forest patches after elevation was controlled. Our results highlight the potential of high-resolution remote sensing to “fingerprint” forest mortality and the significant role of ecosystem heterogeneity in forest biomass resistance to drought.
BISON Simulated and Experimental Fission Product Release Comparisons from Reradiated AGR-3/4 Compacts During High Temperature Heating Tests
The fuel performance modeling code BISON was used to predict the release of fission products iodine-131 (131I), xenon-133 (133Xe), and krypton-85 (85Kr) from four re-irradiated AGR-3/4 fuel compacts containing tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particles during high-temperature isothermal heating tests. The AGR-3/4 fuel compacts were irradiated in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) as part of the third and fourth series of planned experiments to support the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Program. They were subsequently stored and re-irradiated in the Neutron Radiography (NRAD) reactor for approximately five days and then stored for another five to eight days before being subjected to isothermal heating tests in the Fuel Accident Condition Simulation (FACS furnace) for 200 to 300 hours at temperatures between 1000°C and 1600°C to evaluate fission product release at elevated temperatures. New nuclide-specific fission product source term models for the three nuclides of interest were developed using the reactor multiphysics code Griffin and implemented into BISON to support this work. The new source term models were incorporated into coupled compact- and particle-scale BISON simulations, which predict spatially- and temporally-resolved radionuclide generation, radioactive decay, transport, and release throughout the entire irradiation history, including the initial ATR irradiation, NRAD re-irradiations, FACS heating tests, and intermediate periods spent in storage. The experimentally measured fission product release from the heating tests were compared to modeling release predictions calculated by BISON to evaluate how well the code compares to experimental results. Overall, the experimental measured and BISON predicted comparative release results varied but generally agreed to within 5 particle equivalents. Comparative release results identified general observations to take into consideration to help refine future models and reduce uncertainties associated with both the measurement results and predictive results. This includes developing new uranium oxycarbide (UCO) specific kernel diffusivities for the three isotopes examined to more accurately reflect the material properties of the fuel form. Deriving new diffusivities will aid in producing a more informed BISON model
Generative Physics-Informed Neural Network Solving Multi-Scale and Multi-Phase Plasma Chemical Flow Field
Low-temperature plasmas (LTPs) are non-equilibrium systems with near-room-temperature gas and highly energetic electrons. This makes them ideal for delicate applications in biomedicine and semiconductor manufacturing, enabling processes like wound healing, sterilization, etching, and plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition without thermal damage. However, LTPs involve complex chemistries, with hundreds of species and thousands of reactions, complicating their diagnosis, prediction, and control. Conventional diagnostics, such as Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), laser-induced fluorescence (LIF), and optical emission spectroscopy (OES), offer limited species detection, while mass spectrometry (MS) struggles with low-sensitivity species. Additionally, LTP simulations face multi-scale challenges, as macroscopic fluid dynamics and microscopic particle collisions operate on vastly different timescales. To address these issues, we developed an artificial intelligence (AI) based diagnostic system: a generative physics-informed neural network (PINN-Gen) that can predict spatially resolved species concentrations and temperatures in LTPs by integrating experimental data from planar LIF with microscopic plasma chemical kinetics and macroscopic fluid mechanics, including plasma-liquid interactions at the interface between two phases. PINN-Gen solves no equations but checks the errors of physical laws by substituting the output from neural network, and the comparison with the experimental results. Thus, it naturally avoids the multi-scale difficulty of numerical simulations and predicts the results of conventionally unsolvable multi-scale and multi-phase problems. The real-time prediction will be robust due to the physical information used in the training of such a neural network, and only very limited input of condition required due to its generative feature.
Simulations of aerosol pH in China using WRF-Chem (v4.0): sensitivities of aerosol pH and its temporal variations during haze episodes
Aerosol pH is a fundamental property of aerosols in terms of atmospheric chemistry and its impact on air quality, climate, and health. Precise estimation of aerosol pH in chemical transport models (CTMs) is critical for aerosol modeling and thus influences policy development that partially relies on results from model simulations. We report the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) simulated PM 2.5 pH over China during a period with heavy haze episodes in Beijing, and explore the sensitivity of the modeled aerosol pH to factors including emissions of nonvolatile cations (NVCs) and NH 3 , aerosol phase state assumption, and heterogeneous production of sulfate. We find that default WRF-Chem could predict spatial patterns of PM 2.5 pH over China similar to other CTMs, but with generally lower pH values, largely due to the underestimation of alkaline species (NVCs and NH 3 ) and the difference in thermodynamic treatments between different models. Increasing NH 3 emissions in the model would improve the modeled pH in comparison with offline thermodynamic model calculations of pH constrained by observations. In addition, we find that the aerosol phase state assumption and heterogeneous sulfate production are important in aerosol pH predictions for regions with low relative humidity (RH) and high anthropogenic SO 2 emissions, respectively. These factors should be better constrained in model simulations of aerosol pH in the future. Analysis of the modeled temporal trend of PM 2.5 pH in Beijing over a haze episode reveals a clear decrease in pH from 5.2 ± 0.9 in a clean period to 3.6 ± 0.5 in a heavily polluted period. The increased acidity under more polluted conditions is largely due to the formation and accumulation of secondary species including sulfuric acid and nitric acid, even though being modified by alkaline species (NVCs, NH 3 ). Our result suggests that NO 2 oxidation is unlikely to be important for heterogeneous sulfate production during the Beijing haze as the effective pH for NO 2 oxidation of S(IV) is at a higher pH of ~6.