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NASA NTRS1991

Cumulative frequency distribution of past species extinctions

Analysis of Sepkoski's compendium of the time ranges of 30,000+ taxa yields a mean duration of 28.4 ma for genera of fossil invertebrates. This converts to an average extinction rate of 3.5 percent per million years or about one percent every 286,000 years. Using survivorship techniques, these estimates can be converted to the species level, yielding a Phanerozoic average of one percent species extinction every 40,000 years. Variation in extinction rates through time is far greater than the null expectation of a homogeneous birth-death model and this reflects the well-known episodicity of extinction ranging from a few large mass extinctions to so-called background extinction. The observed variation in rates can be used to construct a cumulative frequency distribution of extinction intensity, and this distribution, in the form of a kill curve for species, shows the expected waiting times between extinction events of a given intensity. The kill curve is an average description of the extinction events of a given intensity. The kill curve is an average description of the extinction record and does not imply any cause or causes of extinction. The kill curve shows, among other things, that only about five percent of total species extinctions in the Phanerozoic were involved in the five largest mass extinctions. The other 95 percent were distributed among large and small events not normally called mass extinctions. As an exploration of the possibly absurd proposition that most past extinctions were produced by the effects of large-body impact, the kill curve for species was mapped on the comparable distribution for comet and asteroid impacts. The result is a curve predicting the species kill for a given size of impacting object (expressed as crater size). The results are reasonable in that impacts producing craters less than 30 km (diameter) cause negligible extinction but those producing craters 100-150 km (diameter) cause extinction of species in the range of 45-60 percent.

Raup, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

A model of onshore-offshore change in faunal diversity

Onshore-offshore patterns of faunal change occurred at many taxonomic scales during the Paleozoic Era, ranging from replacement of the Cambrian evolutionary fauna by the Paleozoic fauna to the environmental expansion of many orders and classes. A simple mathematical model is constructed to investigate such change. The environmental gradient across the marine shelf-slope is treated as a linear array of discrete habitats, each of which holds a set number of species, as observed in the fossil record. During any interval of time, some portion of the species in each habitat becomes extinct by background processes, with rates of extinction varying among both clades and habitats, as also observed in the record. After extinction, species are replaced from within the habitat and from immediately adjacent habitats, with proportions dependent on surviving species. This model leads to the prediction that extinction-resistant clades will always diversify at the expense of extinction-prone clades. But if extinction intensity is highest in nearshore habitats, extinction-resistant clades will expand preferentially in the onshore direction, build up diversity there, and then diversify outward toward the offshore. Thus, onshore-offshore patterns of diversification may be the expectation for faunal change quite independently of whether or not clades originate onshore. When the model is parameterized for Paleozoic trilobites and brachiopods, numerical solutions exhibit both a pattern of faunal change and a time span for diversification similar to that seen in the fossil record. They also generate structure similar to that seen in global diversification, including logistic patterns of growth, declining origination but constant extinction within clades through time, and declining overall extinction across clades through time.

NASA Discipline Number 52-40↗
NASA NTRS1992

Large-body impact and extinction in the Phanerozoic

The kill curve for Phanerozoic marine species is used to investigate large-body impact as a cause of species extinction. Current estimates of Phanerozoic impact rates are combined with the kill curve to produce an impact-kill curve, which predicts extinction levels from crater diameter, on the working assumption that impacts are responsible for all "pulsed" extinctions. By definition, pulsed extinction includes the approximately 60% of Phanerozoic extinctions that occurred in short-lived events having extinction rates greater than 5%. The resulting impact-kill curve is credible, thus justifying more thorough testing of the impact-extinction hypothesis. Such testing is possible but requires an exhaustive analysis of radiometric dating of Phanerozoic impact events.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS1992

Biodiversity: molecular biological domains, symbiosis and kingdom origins

The number of extant species of organisms is estimated to be from fewer than 3 to more than 30 x 10(6) (May, 1992). Molecular biology, comparative genetics and ultrastructural analyses provide new insights into evolutionary relationships between these species, including increasingly precise ideas of how species and higher taxa have evolved from common ancestors. Accumulation of random mutations and large macromolecular sequence change in all organisms since the Proterozoic Eon has been importantly supplemented by acquisition of inherited genomes ('symbiogenesis'). Karyotypic alterations (polyploidization and karyotypic fissioning) have been added to these other mechanisms of species origin in plants and animals during the Phanerozoic Eon. The new evolution concepts (coupled with current rapid rates of species extinction and ignorance of the extent of biodiversity) prompted this analysis of the field of systematic biology and its role in the reorganization of extant species into higher taxa. Two superkingdoms (= Domains: Prokaryotae and Eukaryotae) and five kingdoms (Monera = Procaryotae or Bacteria; Protoctista: algae, amoebae, ciliates, foraminifera, oomycetes, slime molds, etc.; Mychota: 'true' fungi; Plantae: one phylum (division) of bryophytes and nine phyla of tracheophytes; and Animalia) are recognized. Two subkingdoms comprise the monera: the great diverse lineages are Archaebacteria and Eubacteria. The criteria for classification using molecular, ultrastructural and genetic data for this scheme are mentioned. For the first time since the nineteenth century, logical, technical definitions for each group are given with their time of appearance as inferred from the fossil record in the primary scientific literature. This classification scheme, which most closely reflects the evolutionary history, molecular biology, genetics and ultrastructure of extant life, requires changes in social organization of biologists, many of whom as botanists and zoologists, still behave as if there were only two important kingdoms (plants and animals).

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS1988

Impact as a general cause of extinction: A feasibility test

Large body impact has been implicated as the possible cause of several extinction events. This is entirely plausible if one accepts two propositions: (1) that impacts of large comets and asteroids produce environmental effects severe enough to cause significant species extinctions and (2) that the estimates of comet and asteroid flux for the Phanerozoic are approximately correct. A resonable next step is to investigate the possibility that impact could be a significant factor in the broader Phanerozoic extinction record, not limited merely to a few events of mass extinction. Monte Carlo simulation experiments based on existing flux estimates and reasonable predictions of the relationship between bolide diameter and extinction are discussed. The simulation results raise the serious possibility that large body impact may be a more pervasive factor in extinction than has been assumed heretofore. At the very least, the experiments show that the comet and asteroid flux estimates combined with a reasonable kill curve produces a reasonable extinction record, complete with occasional mass extinctions and the irregular, lower intensity extinctions commonly called background extinction.

Raup, David M.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Cometary showers and unseen solar companions

The possibility that an invisible solar companion passing through the Oort cloud every 28 Myr precipitates a sufficiently high rate of cometary collisions with the earth to account for periodic mass species extinctions recorded in the fossil record is discussed. A Monte Carlo simulation shows that any hypothesized 'death star' with a 28 Myr orbit would experience an average 10 percent change in period per orbit. Production of an 18-fold increase in cometary impacts would be associated with a 0.055 probability that a 10 km nucleus would hit the earth in a shower once every 510 Myr, longer than the proposed extinction periodicity. However, if the death star orbit has a 0.6 eccentricity and the Oort cloud is sufficiently densely populated, a 2 billion comet shower may be possible. A survey of large terrestrial impact craters indicates that 6-12 craters with diameters over 10 km originated in periodic showers. The extinctions in any case occur at 26 Myr periods and cannot be correlated with the 33 Myr period of recrossing the galactic plane, or with any other known phenomena.

Weissman, P. R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Major wildfires at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary

The current status of the reconstruction of major biomass fire events at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary is discussed. Attention is given to the sources of charcoal and soot, the identification of biomass and fossil carbon, and such ignition-related problems as delated fires, high atmospheric O2 content, ignition mechanisms, and the greenhouse-effect consequences of fire on the scale envisioned. Consequences of these factors for species extinction patterns are noted.

Anders, Edward↗
NASA NTRS2009

Oxygen Compatibility of Brass-Filled PTFE Compared to Commonly Used Fluorinated Polymers for Oxygen Systems

Safe and reliable seal materials for high-pressure oxygen systems sometimes appear to be extinct species when sought out by oxygen systems designers. Materials that seal well are easy to find, but these materials are typically incompatible with oxygen, especially in cryogenic liquid form. This incompatibility can result in seals that leak, or much worse, seals that easily ignite and burn during use. Materials that are compatible with oxygen are easy to find, such as the long list of compatible metals, but these metallic materials are limiting as seal materials. A material that seals well and is oxygen compatible has been the big game in the designer's safari. Scientists at the Materials Combustion Research Facility (MCRF), part of NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), are constantly searching for better materials and processes to improve the safety of oxygen systems. One focus of this effort is improving the characteristics of polymers used in the presence of an oxygen enriched environment. Very few systems can be built which contain no polymeric materials; therefore, materials which have good impact resistance, low heat of combustion, high auto-ignition temperature and that maintain good mechanical properties are essential. The scientists and engineers at the Materials Combustion Research Facility, in cooperation with seal suppliers, are currently testing a new formulation of polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) with Brass filler. This Brass-filled PTFE is showing great promise as a seal and seat material for high pressure oxygen systems. Early research has demonstrated very encouraging results, which could rank this material as one of the best fluorinated polymers ever tested. This paper will compare the data obtained for Brass-filled PTFE with other fluorinated polymers, such as TFE-Teflon (PTFE) , Kel-F 81, Viton A, Viton A-500, Fluorel , and Algoflon . A similar metal filled fluorinated polymer, Salox-M , was tested in comparison to Brass-filled PTFE to demonstrate the importance of the metal chosen and relative percentage of filler. General conclusions on the oxygen compatibility of this formulation are drawn, with an emphasis on comparing and contrasting the materials performance to the performance of the current state-of-the-art oxygen compatible polymers.

Herald, Stephen D.↗
NASA NTRS2016

An Invited Preface for the Following Book: Astrobiologia, Uma Ciencia Emergente

Since the dawn of civilization, we have beheld at the beauty and wonder of the natural world around us and wondered how it came to be. We have pondered the past, and have been intrigued about the future. For this we are unique. Our ancestors looked to the vastness of space and thought surely there are others out there. We are now at a new time in human history where we can address these age-old questions with a scientific approach and study rigorously the three big questions of astrobiology: Where do we come from? Where are we going? and Are we alone? These fundamental questions of astrobiology correspond to those of humanity, and arguably, what makes us human. And so we cannot help but be drawn to the field. Unlike other scientific disciplines, Astrobiology draws on the latest advances in a multitude of fields, from evolutionary and molecular biology, to prebiotic and interstellar chemistry, from astrophysics to astronomy, with a healthy dose of earth and planetary science. Astrobiology is in reality a "metadiscipline" drawing on useful science wherever it is to be found. From a practical point of view, this endeavor requires the interaction of scientists who might not normally meet each other, much less work on a common research project. And, unlike most other scientific disciplines, Astrobiology has implications for how we see ourselves, and how we interact with the earth and beyond. "Where do we come from" touches on the "why" questions that have intrigued not just scientists but philosophers and theologians. "Where are we going" adds to these an economic and political involvement that is currently being played out with discussions of climate change. "And are we alone" will someday force us to face the fact that we as living creatures are not unique, or perhaps that we are utterly alone in the universe, the result of a chemical history that was so improbable as to result in a sample size of one. Either result will force ethical considerations of either "the other" and their relationship to us, or our solitude and thus responsibility as the only life form in our cosmos. So what is Astrobiology? Let's start with the "Where do we come from?" A biologist will approach this looking at the evolution of life on earth, using such traditional tools as comparative anatomy and paleontology and newer tools such as molecular techniques. But this doesn't address why this happened the way it did without a comprehensive understanding of the environment. What was the temperature at such and such a time? Was the earth in a snowball phase or being bombarded by meteorites -- or even just a single large, well-placed one such as struck off the Yucatan peninsula 65 million years ago. This event could not have been predicted by population genetics alone, yet it had the most profound influence on our evolution as without it, we could still be in a world dominated by dinosaurs with the mammals cowering under cover. But it is not enough to go back to LUCA, the Last Universal Common Ancestor of all extant life. One must go back to the dawn of life. How did life arise? What was the environmental backdrop that allowed it to happen? How did we happen to end up with a habitable planet? Indeed, what is the origin and evolution of our solar system, galaxy, biogenic elements all the way back to the Big Bang. The "Where are we going?" tends to be ignored in many astrobiology programs, but in fact this is of the most immediate importance to us. Whereas the past was dominated by physical and chemical processes, and organismal interactions, the future has a new major player: us. While we probably don't have the power (yet) to stop our galaxy passing through another, or even reset the sun or stop the movement of the moon away from the earth, all of these things will influence the future of life on earth. We are already proving that we have the power to visit other bodies in our solar system, either with humans or our robotic surrogates. We are changing our atmospheric composition and thus our climate. We have the power to render species extinct, including our own. But we also have the power to use these tools for the common good, to extend our lifetimes and reclaim our rivers and forests. Which will it be? And then there is the question where science fiction becomes a reality: "Are we alone?" While many people are anxious to find signs of intelligent life out there, such a creature may not share either our curiosity or values. But what if there was a beneficent alien civilization that could communicate with us, perhaps forging a mutual understanding? More likely in the forseeable future is finding a small life, less evolved, life form. Note I did not use the word "simple" as there is nothing "simple" about life, ever. Which brings us back to the question: what is life? So where does Brazil come in? For nearly a decade there has been interest in a Brazilian astrobiology program, from a small side meeting held by the Brazilian Exobiology Program (BEP) of the Brazilian National Research Council, held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on August 12, 2009, in association with the IAU Assembly to subsequent workshops held in several locations and membership of the Brazilian program in the NASA Astrobiology Institute (NAI). Each time I go to Brazil, I am impressed by the enthusiasm of the community, both scientific and student, the latter an excellent omen for the future of astrobiology in Brazil. Facilities are being built to supplement the natural laboratories that Brazil is blessed to have. In my own lab I have been privileged to have a wonderful Brazilian postdoctoral fellow, Dr. Ivan Paulino-Lima, resulting in a daily reminder of the program. I am honored to have been part of the development of astrobiology in Brazil, and hope that this relationship will continue to flourish. Clearly to advance astrobiology needs new knowledge, a reorganization of that which is known, and space missions. To help the reader join on this quest, what follows is a buffet of topics that will allow the reader to nibble on the richness that is Astrobiology. And, like a fabulous meal, it should make you want more. Welcome to Astrobiology.

Are we alone?↗
NASA NTRS1994

The role of extinction in evolution

The extinction of species is not normally considered an important element of neodarwinian theory, in contrast to the opposite phenomenon, speciation. This is surprising in view of the special importance Darwin attached to extinction, and because the number of species extinctions in the history of life is almost the same as the number of originations; present-day biodiversity is the result of a trivial surplus of originations, cumulated over millions of years. For an evolutionary biologist to ignore extinction is probably as foolhardy as for a demographer to ignore mortality. The past decade has seen a resurgence of interest in extinction, yet research on the topic is still at a reconnaissance level, and our present understanding of its role in evolution is weak. Despite uncertainties, extinction probably contains three important elements. (i) For geographically widespread species, extinction is likely only if the killing stress is one so rare as to be beyond the experience of the species, and thus outside the reach of natural selection. (ii) The largest mass extinctions produce major restructuring of the biosphere wherein some successful groups are eliminated, allowing previously minor groups to expand and diversify. (iii) Except for a few cases, there is little evidence that extinction is selective in the positive sense argued by Darwin. It has generally been impossible to predict, before the fact, which species will be victims of an extinction event.

Review, Tutorial↗
NASA NTRS1981

The interaction of the cretaceous-tertiary extinction bolide with the atmosphere, ocean, and solid earth

A number of investigations, including those reported by Orth et al. (1981), have provided physical evidence for the impact of an extraterrestrial object on earth 65 million years ago. This time corresponds to the end of the cretaceous period. This impact could, therefore, be responsible for the observed extinction of biological species at the end of the Mesozoic era. Among the species becoming extinct are found also flying and walking dinosaurs, which include all land animals that had masses greater than 25 kg. The present investigation is concerned with a study of the possibilities for the collision of earth with 10 km-size object, and the consequences produced by such a collision. It is found that the penetration of the atmosphere by the bolide creates a temporary hole in the atmosphere. The resulting flow fields can inject melt droplets and finely commuted solid particles into the atmosphere. Short-term effects of heating, followed by dust induced worldwide cooling, may provide several mechanisms for the observed extinction of the species.

Okeefe, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1994

An evaluation of criteria that may be used to identify species surviving a mass extinction

One of the most difficult obstacles to establishing a causal connection between mass extinctions and large body impacts is the existence of what appear to be many more KT survivor species than previously suspected. Though interpretations of 'Cretaceous' faunal elements in lowermost Danian sediments differ, this enigmatic fauna has not been recovered from every biozone-complete boundary section, including the El Kef stratotype. In terms of their potential for providing constraints on scenarios seeking to account for the KT extinction event, the significance of such observations cannot be overstated. Owing to the consistency with which these observations have been made over the last several years, the possibility of widespread trans-KT biotic survivorship can no longer be dismissed. Rather, the survivorship hypothesis must be tested alongside its alternative (the reworking hypothesis) to determine which explains the available data in the most complete yet parsimonious manner. Moreover, valid tests for survivorship cannot be based on negative evidence or on the assumption that only a small cohort of species could have survived the KT boundary event. Several authors have recently proposed various criteria that might be used to test alternative interpretations for this aspect lowermost Danian biotic record.

Macleod, N.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Periodicity in extinction and the problem of catastrophism in the history of life

The hypothesis that extinction events have recurred periodically over the last quarter billion years is greatly strengthened by new data on the stratigraphic ranges of marine animal genera. In the interval from the Permian to Recent, these data encompass some 13,000 generic extinctions, providing a more sensitive indicator of species-level extinctions than previously used familial data. Extinction time series computed from the generic data display nine strong peaks that are nearly uniformly spaced at 26 Ma intervals over the last 270 Ma. Most of these peaks correspond to extinction events recognized in more detailed, if limited, biostratigraphic studies. These new data weaken or negate most arguments against periodicity, which have involved criticisms of the taxonomic data base, sampling intervals, chronometric time scales, and statistical methods used in previous analyses. The criticisms are reviewed in some detail and various new calculations and simulations, including one assessing the effects of paraphyletic taxa, are presented. Although the new data strengthen the case for periodicity, they offer little new insight into the deriving mechanism behind the pattern. However, they do suggest that many of the periodic events may not have been catastrophic, occurring instead over several stratigraphic stages or substages.

NASA Discipline Number 52-40↗
NASA NTRS1991

A Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinction? Were most of Earth's species killed off?

For the past decade, the scientific and popular press have carried frequent articles about a catastrophic mass extinction that supposedly destroyed the majority of the earth's species, including the dinosaurs, approximately 65 million years ago. Since 1980, more than 2000 papers and books have dealt with some aspect of a mass extinction at the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K/T) boundary. One authoritative estimate of the severity of the extinctions is that 60-80% of all the living species became extinct at this boundary (Raup 1988). There appears to be a general acceptance of the fact that such a great catastrophe did occur. Most of the argument among scientists now is devoted to the determination of the cause. In this article, I argue that the species changes at the K/T boundary were neither sudden nor catastrophic. They were most likely caused by a regression of sea level that led to a decrease in primary production.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗
NASA NTRS1989

Modeling of hydrogen-air diffusion flame

An analytical and computational study of opposed jet diffusion flame for the purpose of understanding the effects of contaminants in the reactants and thermal diffusion of light species on extinction and reignition of diffusion flames is in progress. The methodologies that have been attempted so far are described. Results using a simple, one-step reaction for the hydrogen-air counterflow diffusion flame are presented. These results show the correct trends in the profiles of chemical species and temperature. The extinction limit can be clearly seen in the plot of temperature vs. Damkohler number.

Isaac, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The biology of mass extinction: a palaeontological view

Extinctions are not biologically random: certain taxa or functional/ecological groups are more extinction-prone than others. Analysis of molluscan survivorship patterns for the end-Cretaceous mass extinctions suggests that some traits that tend to confer extinction resistance during times of normal ('background') levels of extinction are ineffectual during mass extinction. For genera, high species-richness and possession of widespread individual species imparted extinction-resistance during background times but not during the mass extinction, when overall distribution of the genus was an important factor. Reanalysis of Hoffman's (1986) data (Neues Jb. Geol. Palaont. Abh. 172, 219) on European bivalves, and preliminary analysis of a new northern European data set, reveals a similar change in survivorship rules, as do data scattered among other taxa and extinction events. Thus taxa and adaptations can be lost not because they were poorly adapted by the standards of the background processes that constitute the bulk of geological time, but because they lacked--or were not linked to--the organismic, species-level or clade-level traits favoured under mass-extinction conditions. Mass extinctions can break the hegemony of species-rich, well-adapted clades and thereby permit radiation of taxa that had previously been minor faunal elements; no net increase in the adaptation of the biota need ensue. Although some large-scale evolutionary trends transcend mass extinctions, post extinction evolutionary pathways are often channelled in directions not predictable from evolutionary patters during background times.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2000

Periodic Comet Showers, Mass Extinctions, and the Galaxy

Geologic data on mass extinctions of life and evidence of large impacts on the Earth are thus far consistent with a quasi-periodic modulation of the flux of Oort cloud comets. Impacts of large comets and asteroids are capable of causing mass extinction of species, and the records of large impact craters and mass show a correlation. Impacts and extinctions display periods in the range of approximately 31 +/- 5 m.y., depending on dating methods, published time scales, length of record, and number of events analyzed. Statistical studies show that observed differences in the formal periodicity of extinctions and craters are to be expected, taking into consideration problems in dating and the likelihood that both records would be mixtures of periodic and random events. These results could be explained by quasi-periodic showers of Oort Cloud comets with a similar cycle. The best candidate for a pacemaker for comet showers is the Sun's vertical oscillation through the plane of the Galaxy, with a half-period over the last 250 million years in the same range. We originally suggested that the probability of encounters with molecular clouds that could perturb the Oort comet cloud and cause comet showers is modulated by the Sun's vertical motion through the galactic disk. Tidal forces produced by the overall gravitational field of the Galaxy can also cause perturbations of cometary orbits. Since these forces vary with the changing position of the solar system in the Galaxy, they provide a mechanism for the periodic variation in the flux of Oort cloud comets into the inner solar system. The cycle time and degree of modulation depend critically on the mass distribution in the galactic disk. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Rampino, M. R.↗