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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

Investigating Stable Oxygen and Carbon Isotopic Variability in Speleothem Records Over the Last Millennium Using Multiple Isotope-Enabled Climate Models

The incorporation of water isotopologues into the hydrology of general circulation models (GCMs) facilitates the comparison between modeled and measured proxy data in paleoclimate archives. However, the variability and drivers of measured and modeled water isotopologues, as well as the diversity of their representation in different models, are not well constrained. Improving our understanding of this variability in past and present climates will help to better constrain future climate change projections and decrease their range of uncertainty. Speleothems are a precisely datable terrestrial paleoclimate archives and provide well-preserved (semi-)continuous multivariate isotope time series in the lower latitudes and mid-latitudes and are therefore well suited to assess climate and isotope variability on decadal and longer timescales. However, the relationships of speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopes to climate variables are influenced by site-specific parameters, and their comparison to GCMs is not always straightforward. Here we compare speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopic signatures from the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis database version 2 (SISALv2) to the output of five different water-isotope-enabled GCMs (ECHAM5-wiso, GISS-E2-R, iCESM, iHadCM3, and isoGSM) over the last millennium (850–1850 CE). We systematically evaluate differences and commonalities between the standardized model simulation outputs. The goal is to distinguish climatic drivers of variability for modeled isotopes and compare them to those of measured isotopes. We find strong regional differences in the oxygen isotope signatures between models that can partly be attributed to differences in modeled surface temperature. At low latitudes, precipitation amount is the dominant driver for stable water isotope variability; however, at cave locations the agreement between modeled temperature variability is higher than for precipitation variability. While modeled isotopic signatures at cave locations exhibited extreme events coinciding with changes in volcanic and solar forcing, such fingerprints are not apparent in the speleothem isotopes. This may be attributed to the lower temporal resolution of speleothem records compared to the events that are to be detected. Using spectral analysis, we can show that all models underestimate decadal and longer variability compared to speleothems (albeit to varying extents). We found that no model excels in all analyzed comparisons, although some perform better than the others in either mean or variability. Therefore, we advise a multi-model approach whenever comparing proxy data to modeled data. Considering karst and cave internal processes, e.g., through isotope-enabled karst models, may alter the variability in speleothem isotopes and play an important role in determining the most appropriate model. By exploring new ways of analyzing the relationship between the oxygen and carbon isotopes, their variability, and co-variability across timescales, we provide methods that may serve as a baseline for future studies with different models using, e.g., different isotopes, different climate archives, or different time periods.

isotope-enabled simulations↗
NASA NTRS2021

A data–model approach to interpreting speleothem oxygen isotope records from monsoon regions

Reconstruction of past changes in monsoon climate from speleothem oxygen isotope (δ 18 O) records is complex because δ 18 O signals can be influenced by multiple factors including changes in precipitation, precipitation recycling over land, temperature at the moisture source, and changes in the moisture source region and transport pathway. Here, we analyse >150 speleothem records of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and AnaLysis (SISAL) database to produce composite regional trends in δ 18 O in monsoon regions; compositing minimises the influence of site-specific karst and cave processes that can influence individual site records. We compare speleothem δ 18 O observations with isotope-enabled climate model simulations to investigate the specific climatic factors causing these regional trends. We focus on differences in δ 18 O signals between the mid-Holocene, the peak of the Last Interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5e) and the Last Glacial Maximum as well as on δ 18 O evolution through the Holocene. Differences in speleothem δ 18 O between the mid-Holocene and the Last Interglacial in the East Asian and Indian monsoons are small, despite the larger summer insolation values during the Last Interglacial. Last Glacial Maximum δ 18 O values are significantly less negative than interglacial values. Comparison with simulated glacial–interglacial δ 18 O shows that changes are principally driven by global shifts in temperature and regional precipitation. Holocene speleothem δ 18 O records show distinct and coherent regional trends. Trends are similar to summer insolation in India, China and southwestern South America, but they are different in the Indonesian–Australian region. Redundancy analysis shows that 37 % of Holocene variability can be accounted for by latitude and longitude, supporting the differentiation of records into individual monsoon regions. Regression analysis of simulated precipitation δ 18 O and climate variables show significant relationships between global Holocene monsoon δ 18 O trends and changes in precipitation, atmospheric circulation and (to a lesser extent) source area temperature, whereas precipitation recycling is non-significant. However, there are differences in regional-scale mechanisms: there are clear relationships between changes in precipitation and δ 18 O for India, southwestern South America and the Indonesian–Australian regions but not for the East Asian monsoon. Changes in atmospheric circulation contribute to δ 18 O trends in the East Asian, Indian and Indonesian–Australian monsoons, and a weak source area temperature effect is observed over southern and central America and Asia. Precipitation recycling is influential in southwestern South America and southern Africa. Overall, our analyses show that it is possible to differentiate the impacts of specific climatic mechanisms influencing precipitation δ 18 O and use this analysis to interpret changes in speleothem δ 18 O.

speleothem oxygen isotope records↗
DOE OSTI2020

Paleo-Megadroughts and Abrupt Climate Changes in the Speleothem Records. Final report

This project is motivated by the speleothem isotope records in Asia, which show regional responses in the hydrologic cycle to different climate forcings. Speleothem isotopic records are typically interpreted in terms of local precipitation variations or monsoon intensity. Our study demonstrates that non-local processes also play an important role. We started this project to understand the regional difference in speleothem isotopic composition between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present-day. The record in Southwest China showed greater depletion during the LGM compared to those in East China. Our modeling and analysis showed that speleothems record, in addition, large scale changes in atmospheric circulation and moisture transport and their subsequent impact on precipitation. We developed an algorithm to partition total precipitation according to their formation dynamics, namely into frontal and non-frontal precipitation, and showed that the two have different trends and hence different causal mechanism. We then focused our subsequent attention on circulation impacts on precipitation changes. We applied a machine learning algorithm to detect rainbands in the ERA-Interim reanalysis product, and showed that the seasonal migrations of the rainbands are tied to the seasonal migrations of the jet stream, in particular the northerlies of the jet meanders. These northerlies, in turn, are partly topographic Rossby waves excited as the upstream westerlies impinge on the Tibetan Plateau. The seasonal variations of these upstream westerlies thus contribute to the seasonal movements of the rainbands and regional precipitation changes. Our analysis of the modern precipitation isotope record further confirms the importance of jet stream changes in the isotopic variations and shows that isotope-enriched years have reduced summer seasonality, with less pronounced northward migration of the jet.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Semiquantitative Estimates of Rainfall Variability During the 8.2 kyr Event in California Using Speleothem Calcium Isotope Ratios

A multiproxy record from a fast-growing stalagmite reveals variable hydroclimate on the California coast across the 8.2 kyr event and a precursor event likely caused by initial drainage of proglacial Lake Agassiz. Using speleothem δ 44 Ca, we develop the first semiquantitative estimates of paleorainfall variability for California through calibration with measurements of the modern climate and cave environment. We find that the magnitude of rainfall variability during the 8.2 kyr event approached the multiyear variability observable in the recent past (1950–2019) and the magnitude of variability during the precursor event likely exceeded this range. Additionally, we observe other instances of multidecadal variability comparable in magnitude to the precursor event during the record. Finally, our work suggests that speleothem calcium isotope ratios are a powerful semiquantitative means to reconstruct paleorainfall, although numerous factors must be assessed in each cave system before applying this approach.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Interpreting Precession-Driven δ O-18 Variability in the South Asian Monsoon Region

Speleothem records from the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) region display variability in the ratio of O-18 and O-16 (δ O-18) in calcium carbonate at orbital frequencies. The dominant mode of variability in many of these records reflects cycles of precession. There are several potential explanations for why SASM speleothem records show a strong precession signal, including changes in temperature, precipitation, and circulation. Here we use an Earth system model with water isotope tracers and water-tagging capability to deconstruct the precession signal found in SASM speleothem records. Our results show that cycles of precession-eccentricity produce changes in SASM intensity that correlate with local temperature, precipitation, and δ O-18. However, neither the amount effect nor temperature differences are responsible for the majority of the SASM δ O-18 variability. Instead, changes in the relative moisture contributions from different source regions drive much of the SASM δ O-18 signal, with more nearby moisture sources during Northern Hemisphere summer at aphelion and more distant moisture sources during Northern Hemisphere summer at perihelion. Further, we find that evaporation amplifies the δ O-18 signal of soil water relative to that of precipitation, providing a better match with the SASM speleothem records. This work helps explain a significant portion of the long-term variability found in SASM speleothem records.

paleoclimate↗
DOE OSTI2022

Past fires and post-fire impacts reconstructed from a southwest Australian stalagmite

Speleothem records of past environmental change provide an important opportunity to explore fire frequency and intensity in the past, and the antecedent climatic conditions leading to fire events. Here, fire sensitive geochemical signals in a stalagmite from Yonderup Cave, a shallow cave in Western Australia, are compared to well-documented wildfire events that occurred in recent decades. The results are extended to identify wildfires during the growth interval of the speleothem (1760 CE–2005 CE). Principal component analysis of the stalagmite time-series revealed distinct peaks in a combination of phosphorus and metal (aluminium, zinc, copper and lead) concentrations in response to known fire events, which are interpreted to have come from ash. Varying responses in the geochemical signal in the pre- and post-European colonisation period are likely linked to changes in land management, fire frequency and fire intensities. Of note is what we infer to be a particularly intense fire event concluded to have occurred in 1897 ± 5 CE, which climate sensitive proxies (δ18O and bedrock-derived elements) indicate was preceded by a multi-decadal dry period that began in the late 1860s. The intensity of the deduced fire event is supported by a peak in P that is 6.3 times higher than elsewhere in the speleothem, accompanied by a peak in Zn. It was also inferred that changes to the surface-cave hydrology occurred as a result of this event, indicated by increased input of colloidal organic material onto the stalagmite that was interpreted to be caused by shallow karst bedrock fracturing from the heat-induced deformation that is observed after intense fires. These findings show the potential for speleothems to provide dated records of fire intensity and recurrence intervals. Further development could lead to a better understanding of the climate-fire relationship and the effects of land-management practices on wildfire frequency and intensity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A mechanistic understanding of oxygen isotopic changes in the Western United States at the Last Glacial Maximum

At the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), records suggest drier conditions in the northwest United States and wetter conditions in the southwest United States relative to present-day as well as widespread changes in the isotopic composition of water. However, the mechanisms responsible for these changes remain ambiguous. Here, we explore differences in western United States hydroclimate between the LGM and preindustrial with a water isotope tracer enabled Earth System Model. We then use proxy forward models to compare simulated and recorded δ 18 O in speleothems. We find that the pattern of hydroclimate response in the western United States at the LGM relates to a combination of 1) increased frequency and southward shifted wintertime extratropical cyclones in the North Pacific, 2) greater rainout of moisture as it moves over the continent, and 3) reduced evaporation in the cooler LGM climate. The simulated lower δ 18 O of precipitation at the LGM relates predominantly to an increase in cool season moisture removal efficiency, with a secondary contribution from relatively more cool season precipitation. Both surface temperatures and North American ice sheets contribute to these hydroclimate changes at the LGM. Comparisons between δ 18 O from proxy forward models and speleothem records in the western United States show general agreement at the LGM, with increasing depletion moving towards the continental interior. Finally, this study highlights the similarities and differences between hydrologic and δ 18 O changes at the LGM and emphasizes the utility of model-proxy comparison for interpretation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1997

Seventh Annual V. M. Goldschmidt Conference

Topics considered include: Subduction of the Aseismic Cocos Ridge Displaced Magma Sources Beneath the Cordillera de Talamanca, Costa Rica; Topography of Transition Zone Discontinuities: A Measure of 'Olivine' Content and Evidence for Deep Cratonic Roots; Uranium Enrichment in Lithospheric Mantle: Case Studies from French Massif Central; Rare-Earth-Element Anomalies in the Decollement Zone of the nankai Accretionary Prism, Japan: Evidence of Fluid Flow?; Rare Earth Elements in Japanese Mudrocks: The Influence of Provenance; The Evolution of Seawater Strontium Isotopes in the Last Hundred Million Years: Reinterpretation and Consequences for Erosion and Climate Models; From Pat to Tats: The Lead Isotope Legacy in the Studies of the Continental Crust-Upper Mantle System; Geochronology of the Jack Hills Detrital Zircons by Precise Uranium-Lead Isotope-Dilution Analysis of Crystal Fragments; Iridium in the Oceans; The Helium-Heat-Lead Paradox; Control of Distribution Patterns of Heavy Metals in Ganga Plain Around Kanpur Region, India, by Fluvial Geomorphic Domains; Geochemical and Isotopic Features of Ferrar Magmatic Provience (Victoria Land, Antarctica); Rare Earth Elements in Marine Fine-Grained Sediments from the Northwestern Portuguese Shelf (Atlantic); Aspects of Arc Fluxes; General Kinetic Model for Dolomite Precipitation Rate with Application to the Secular History of Seawater Composition; High-Precision Uranium-series Chronology from Speleothems; Trace-Element Modeling of Aqueous Fluid-Peridotite Interaction in the Mantle Wedge of Subduction Zones; Rainfall Variations in Southeastern Australia over the Last 500,000 Years from Speleothem Deposition; The Role of Water in High-Pressure Fluids; The Kinetic Conditions of Metamorphic Minearogenesis: Evidence from Minerals and Assemblages.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2022

Constraining Clouds and Convective Parameterizations in A Climate Model Using Paleoclimate Data

Cloud and convective parameterizations strongly influence uncertainties in equilibrium climate sensitivity. We provide a proof-of-concept study to constrain these parameterizations in a perturbed parameter ensemble of the atmosphere-only version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2.1 simulations by evaluating model biases in the present-day runs using multiple satellite climatologies and by comparing simulated δ 18 O of precipitation (δ 18 O p ), known to be sensitive to parameterization schemes, with a global database of speleothem δ 18 O records covering the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), mid-Holocene (MH) and pre-industrial (PI) periods. Relative to modern interannual variability, paleoclimate simulations show greater sensitivity to parameter changes, allowing for an evaluation of model uncertainties over a broader range of climate forcing and the identification of parts of the world that are parameter sensitive. Certain simulations reproduced absolute δ 18 O p values across all time periods, along with LGM and MH δ 18 O p anomalies relative to the PI, better than the default parameterization. No single set of parameterizations worked well in all climate states, likely due to the non-stationarity of cloud feedbacks under varying boundary conditions. Future work that involves varying multiple parameter sets simultaneously with coupled ocean feedbacks will likely provide improved constraints on cloud and convective parameterizations.

cloud and convective parameterization↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Influence of the Mid-Holocene Green Sahara on South American Climate

Paleoclimatic data from pollen, speleothem and sedimentary records indicate a weakening of the South American Monsoon in the mid-Holocene (MH: 6,000 years BP), which occurred coevally with the intensification of the West African Monsoon. The reduction in precipitation over South America is also simulated by various models which account for changes in orbital forcings and greenhouse gas concentrations between the present day and the mid-Holocene. However, most model studies do not account for vegetation changes, which precludes realistic simulations, especially due to the presence and far-afield impacts of the Green Sahara. In this study, we evaluate precipitation over South America during the mid-Holocene from four models, namely – EC-Earth 3.1, iCESM 1.2, CCSM4-Toronto and GISS Model E2.1-G. Two scenarios are considered for each model – an MHPMIP scenario simulated with the mid-Holocene orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations with vegetation prescribed to pre-industrial conditions, as well as an MHGS (Green Sahara) scenario which additionally considers factors such as enhanced vegetation, reduced dust, presence of lakes, and land and soil feedbacks. Incorporating the Green Sahara leads to an amplification of the drying signal over South America and brings it more in line with the proxy reconstructions. We also present a semi-quantitative assessment of the proxy-model agreement. Our work indicates that it is important to consider changes over northern Africa while studying South American climate of the mid-Holocene.

GISS-E2-1 model↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sulphur variations in annually layered stalagmites using benchtop micro-XRF

Variation of sulphur in annually laminated stalagmites can be used to infer the impact of past volcanic activities, anthropogenic pollution, and climate change due to increased bushfire activity. The synchrotron radiation micro-X-Ray fluorescence (SR-XRF) microprobe is a powerful tool to analyse and image sulphur recorded in stalagmites with micrometre resolution. However, access to SR-XRF beamlines can be limited, so researchers must select the most promising stalagmites for imaging. Benchtop micro-XRF is an effective tool for trace elemental analysis of speleothem samples and is a candidate for routine laboratory measurement of sulphur along stalagmite laminae and screening for SR-XRF. Here, this study describes a protocol using matrix-matched standards to measure annual variations of sulphur at trace to percent level along the laminae of two Western Australian stalagmites, one of which already having been analysed using SR-XRF. Parameters that affected quantitation include X-ray tube voltage and current, spot size of the X-ray beam and stalagmite surface roughness and porosity. The use of a 20 μm X-ray spot size provides sub-annual spatial resolution that can be completed in an overnight scan. The features in a 1000 point micro-XRF analysis of sulphur along a 20 mm transect show good consistency with SR-XRF microprobe data. Micro-XRF mapping was also performed to produce chemical images on the stalagmite and compared with Raman and X-ray diffraction (XRD) to confirm that the stalagmite is exclusively calcite, with no aragonite, and that the source of sulphur in the samples was gypsum and anhydrite. Regions of very high sulphur in the micro-XRF maps were found to be artefacts due to diffraction of the incident beam but these could be efficiently removed by using a multiple point statistics approach to produce a clean image suitable for analysis of the laminae. This work shows the potential of micro-XRF for routine analysis of sulphur in stalagmites, and to streamline sample characterisation before SR-XRF imaging.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

A >200 ka U-Th Based Chronology From Lacustrine Evaporites, Searles Lake, CA

Well-dated lacustrine records are essential to establish the timing and drivers of regional hydroclimate change. Searles Basin, California, records the depositional history of a fluctuating saline-alkaline lake in the terminal basin of the Owens River system draining the eastern Sierra Nevada. Here, we establish a U-Th chronology for the ~76-m-long SLAPP-SLRS17 core collected in 2017 based on dating of evaporite minerals. Ninety-eight dated samples comprising nine different minerals were evaluated based on stratigraphic, mineralogic, textural, chemical, and reproducibility criteria. After the application of these criteria, a total of 37 dated samples remained as constraints for the age model. A lack of dateable minerals between 145 and 110 ka left the age model unconstrained over the penultimate glacial termination (Termination II). We thus established a tie point between plant wax δD values in the core and a nearby speleothem δ 18 O record at the beginning of the Last Interglacial. We construct a Bayesian age model allowing stratigraphy to inform sedimentation rate inflections. We find that the >210 ka SLAPP-SRLS17 record contains five major units that correspond with prior work. The new dating is broadly consistent with previous efforts but provides more precise age estimates and enables a detailed evaluation of evaporite depositional history. We also offer a substantial revision of the age of the Bottom Mud-Mixed Layer contact, shifting it from ~130 ka to 178 ± 3 ka. The new U-Th chronology documents the timing of mud and salt layers and lays the foundation for climate reconstructions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Precipitation in Northeast Mexico Primarily Controlled by the Relative Warming of Atlantic SSTs

Abstract Reconstructing hydroclimate over the Common Era is essential for understanding the dominant mechanisms of precipitation change and improving climate model projections, which currently suggest Northeast Mexico will become drier in the future. Tree‐ring reconstructions have suggested regional rainfall is primarily controlled by Pacific sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs). However, tree ring records tend to reflect winter‐spring rainfall, and thus may not accurately record total annual precipitation. Using the first multiproxy speleothem record spanning the last millennium, combined with results from an atmospheric general circulation model, we demonstrate mean annual rainfall in Northeast Mexico is highly sensitive to Atlantic SST variability. Our findings suggest future precipitation in Northeast Mexico is more dependent upon the warming of Tropical Atlantic SSTs relative to the Tropical Pacific.

Wright, Kevin T.↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Zonal Patterns in Late Quaternary Tropical South American Precipitation

Speleothem oxygen isotope records (δ 18 O) of tropical South American rainfall in the late Quaternary show a zonal “South American Precipitation Dipole” (SAPD). The dipole is characterized by opposing east-west precipitation anomalies compared to the present—wetter in the east and drier in the west at the mid-Holocene (~7 ka), and drier in the east and wetter in the west at the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka). However, the SAPD remains enigmatic because it is expressed differently in western versus eastern δ18O records and isotope-enabled climate model simulations usually misrepresent the magnitude and/or spatial pattern of δ 18 O change. Here, we address the SAPD enigma in two parts. First, we re-interpret the δ 18 O data to account for upwind rainout effects that are known to be pervasive in tropical South America, but are not always considered in Quaternary paleoclimate studies. Our revised interpretation reconciles the δ 18 O data with cave infiltration and other proxy records, and indicates that the centroid of tropical South American rainfall has migrated zonally over time. Second, using an energy balance model of tropical atmospheric circulation, we hypothesize that zonal migration of the precipitation centroid can be explained by regional energy budget shifts, such as changing Saharan albedo associated with the African Humid Period, that have not been modeled in previous SAPD studies. This hypothesis of a migrating precipitation centroid presents a new framework for interpreting δ18O records from tropical South America and may help explain the zonal rainfall anomalies that predate the late Quaternary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enriched East Asian oxygen isotope of precipitation indicates reduced summer seasonality in regional climate and westerlies

Speleothem oxygen isotope records over East Asia reveal apparently large and rapid paleoclimate changes over the last several hundred thousand years. However, what the isotopic variation actually represent in terms of the regional climate and circulation is debated. We present an answer that emerges from an analysis of the interannual variation in amount-weighted annual δ 18 O of precipitation over East Asia as simulated by an isotope-enabled model constrained by large-scale atmospheric reanalysis fields. 18 O-enriched years have reduced summer seasonality both in terms of precipitation isotopes and in the large-scale circulation. Changes occur between June and October, where the δ 18 O of precipitation (δ 18 O p ) transitions from the isotopically heavier winter to the lighter summer regime. For 18 O-enriched years, this transition is less pronounced. Variations in precipitation amount alone are insufficient to explain the amount-weighted annual δ 18 O p between 18 O-enriched and 18 O-depleted years. Reduced summer seasonality is also expressed in the low-level monsoonal southerlies and upper-level westerlies; for the latter, the northward migration across the Tibetan Plateau in the summer is less pronounced. Our result thus implicates the westerlies across the plateau as the proximate cause of East Asian paleomonsoon changes, manifested as a modulation of its summer peak.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Water isotopes, climate variability, and the hydrological cycle: recent advances and new frontiers

Abstract The hydrologic cycle is a fundamental component of the climate system with critical societal and ecological relevance. Yet gaps persist in our understanding of water fluxes and their response to increased greenhouse gas forcing. The stable isotope ratios of oxygen and hydrogen in water provide a unique opportunity to evaluate hydrological processes and investigate their role in the variability of the climate system and its sensitivity to change. Water isotopes also form the basis of many paleoclimate proxies in a variety of archives, including ice cores, lake and marine sediments, corals, and speleothems. These records hold most of the available information about past hydrologic variability prior to instrumental observations. Water isotopes thus provide a ‘common currency’ that links paleoclimate archives to modern observations, allowing us to evaluate hydrologic processes and their effects on climate variability on a wide range of time and length scales. Building on previous literature summarizing advancements in water isotopic measurements and modeling and describe water isotopic applications for understanding hydrological processes, this topical review reflects on new insights about climate variability from isotopic studies. We highlight new work and opportunities to enhance our understanding and predictive skill and offer a set of recommendations to advance observational and model-based tools for climate research. Finally, we highlight opportunities to better constrain climate sensitivity and identify anthropogenically-driven hydrologic changes within the inherently noisy background of natural climate variability.

Dee, Sylvia (ORCID:000000022140785X)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Exceptionally stable preindustrial sea level inferred from the western Mediterranean Sea

An accurate record of preindustrial (pre-1900 CE) sea level is necessary to contextualize modern global mean sea level (GMSL) rise with respect to natural variability. Precisely dated phreatic overgrowths on speleothems (POS) provide detailed rates of Late Holocene sea-level rise in Mallorca. Statistical analysis indicates that sea level rose locally by 0.12 to 0.31 m (95% confidence) from 3.26 to 2.84 thousand years (ka) ago (2σ) and remained within 0.08 m (95% confidence) of preindustrial levels from 2.84 ka to 1900 CE. This sea-level history is consistent with glacial isostatic adjustment models adopting relatively weak upper mantle viscosities of ~10 20 Pa s. There is virtual certainty (>0.999 probability) that the average GMSL rise since 1900 CE has exceeded even the high average rate of sea-level rise between 3.26 and 2.84 ka inferred from the POS record. We conclude that modern GMSL rise is anomalous relative to any natural variability in ice volumes over the past 4000 years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗