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DOE OSTI2023

Robust Power System Stability Assessment Against Adversarial Machine Learning-Based Cyberattacks via Online Purification

The increasing complexity associated with renewable generation brings more challenges to power system stability assessment (SA). Data-driven approaches based on machine learning (ML) techniques for stability assessment have received significant research interest and shown their promising performance. However, ML-based models are recognized to be vulnerable to adversarial disturbances, where a slight perturbation to power system measurements could lead to unacceptable errors. To address this issue, this paper develops a novel lightweight mitigation strategy, i.e., robust online stability assessment (ROSA), to enhance the ML-based assessment model against both white-box and the black-box adversarial disturbances (i.e., purification) in the online implementation. The ROSA involves a supervised learning-based module for the primary stability assessment and a self-supervised learning-based module. Further, the two modules are trained jointly with different objective (loss) functions and implemented in sequence. A suitable purification objective and various time-series data augmentation methods are designed for SA applications to tackle adversarial disturbances adaptively. Case studies are performed, and the comparative results have clearly illustrated the competitive, robust accuracy against various adversarial scenarios and verified the effectiveness of the proposed online purification strategy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deep Learning Based Frequency Stability Assessment in Power Grid with High Renewables

Frequency stability assessment is one critical aspect of power system security assessment. Traditional N-1 screening method is based on the simulations of a few typical daily and seasonal operation scenarios. However, the increasing integration of inverter-based renewables and the retirement of conventional synchronous generators result in decreasing system inertia and growing complexity of system operating conditions. Selecting a few typical operation scenarios cannot cover all operating conditions, and the time-domain simulation of all operation conditions requires tremendous time. This paper proposes a more efficient frequency stability assessment method based on deep learning. The affinity propagation clustering algorithm is used to divide the dataset into different clusters, so the selected dataset for training can cover the diversified operating conditions as much as possible. Also, feature normalization is applied to both the training dataset and testing dataset in order to remove any unnecessary bias. Especially, trained model based on full dataset normalization has bounded error in the prediction. The case study on the reduced 240-bus WECC system demonstrates that the proposed method can predict accurate frequency nadir with limited training dataset. The deep learning model using the revised feature normalization can predict more accurate frequency nadir than that using the traditional feature normalization and has very small maximum prediction error.

affinity propagation↗

DOE OSTI2023

AI-Based Faster-Than-Real-Time Stability Assessment of Large Power Systems with Applications on WECC System

Achieving clean energy goals will require significant advances in regard to addressing the computational needs for next-generation renewable-dominated power grids. One critical obstacle that lies in the way of transitioning today’s power grid to a renewable-dominated power grid is the lack of a faster-than-real-time stability assessment technology for operating a fast-changing power grid. This paper proposes an artificial intelligence (AI) -based method that predicts the system’s stability margin information (e.g., the frequency nadir in the frequency stability assessment and the critical clearing time (CCT) value in the transient stability assessment) directly from the system operating conditions without performing the conventional time-consuming time-domain simulations over detailed dynamic models. Since the AI method shifts the majority of the computational burden to offline training, the online evaluation is extremely fast. This paper has tested the AI-based stability assessment method using multiple dispatch cases that are converted and tuned from actual dispatch cases of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system model with more than 20,000 buses. The results show that the AI-based method could accurately predict the stability margin of such a large power system in less than 0.2 milliseconds using the offline-trained AI agent. Therefore, the proposed method has great potential to achieve faster-than-real-time stability assessment for practical large power systems while preserving sufficient accuracy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

ML-Based Power System Stability Assessment Considering Network Topology Changes: WECC 20,000+ Bus System Case Study

Modern power grids are fast-changing and thus require real-time monitoring and online stability assessment. With the rapid development of machine learning (ML) techniques, using data-driven models to provide fast and accurate estimations of power system stability marginal information, such as frequency nadir for frequency stability and critical clearing time (CCT) for transient stability, have become possible. However, despite the numerous research on ML-based methods for frequency nadir and CCT prediction, there is limited work on the impact of different network topology changes. Furthermore, most previous studies only focused on small or synthetic systems, and there is a lack of research on actual large power system models. In this paper, the above issues are addressed by studying the actual U.S. Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system model with more than 20,000 buses. Massive simulations are conducted in PowerWorld Simulator to study the impact of various topology change scenarios on both frequency stability and transient stability. System operating information is extracted from the success dispatch cases of various network topologies to generate a comprehensive dataset for ML-based models. Two ML methods, random forest (RF) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network, are trained and tested for both frequency nadir prediction and CCT prediction. Test results have proven the models are capable of online stability assessment for large power networks such as the WECC system with sufficient accuracy.

critical clearing time↗

NASA NTRS2024

Aeroelastic Stability Assessment Methodology and Application to Slat Noise Treatments on the High-Lift Common Research Model

This work supports a larger effort at NASA to reduce airframe noise and, thus, environmental noise around airports. The leading-edge slat of conventional high-lift systems is a prominent source of airframe noise, and two technologies were previously identified as promising for noise reduction without significant aerodynamic or weight penalty: the slat cove filler (SCF) and the slat gap filler (SGF). NASA fabricated a 10%-scale semispan aircraft model for wind tunnel testing based upon the High-Lift Common Research Model (CRM-HL). NASA embarked on a test campaign with the 10% CRM-HL to determine the noise reduction effectiveness and other performance metrics of 3D SCF and SGF treatments in flow conditions representative of flight. The highly flexible SCF and SGF treatments posed a risk to the model and aeroelastic instability would compromise research integrity, so aeroelastic stability assessment was required. This work briefly describes the 10% CRM-HL, design of the SCF and SGF treatments to the model, and supporting fluid structure interaction (FSI) research. Relations for static and dynamic aeroelastic similitude are then developed for convenience of reference, and simplifications are introduced of particular utility to the cases considered in this study. The similitude relations are employed to assess the stability of the treatments under wind tunnel flow conditions based upon known behaviors from the supporting research. It is shown that the treatments are safe for test under the anticipated wind tunnel flow conditions with significant margins/factors of safety. It is furthermore demonstrated that the SCF is more susceptible to aeroelastic instability than the SGF, which has implications for flight feasibility.

Similitude↗

NASA NTRS2011

Signal Processing Methods for Liquid Rocket Engine Combustion Stability Assessments

The J2X Gas Generator engine design specifications include dynamic, spontaneous, and broadband combustion stability requirements. These requirements are verified empirically based high frequency chamber pressure measurements and analyses. Dynamic stability is determined with the dynamic pressure response due to an artificial perturbation of the combustion chamber pressure (bomb testing), and spontaneous and broadband stability are determined from the dynamic pressure responses during steady operation starting at specified power levels. J2X Workhorse Gas Generator testing included bomb tests with multiple hardware configurations and operating conditions, including a configuration used explicitly for engine verification test series. This work covers signal processing techniques developed at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to help assess engine design stability requirements. Dynamic stability assessments were performed following both the CPIA 655 guidelines and a MSFC in-house developed statistical-based approach. The statistical approach was developed to better verify when the dynamic pressure amplitudes corresponding to a particular frequency returned back to pre-bomb characteristics. This was accomplished by first determining the statistical characteristics of the pre-bomb dynamic levels. The pre-bomb statistical characterization provided 95% coverage bounds; these bounds were used as a quantitative measure to determine when the post-bomb signal returned to pre-bomb conditions. The time for post-bomb levels to acceptably return to pre-bomb levels was compared to the dominant frequency-dependent time recommended by CPIA 655. Results for multiple test configurations, including stable and unstable configurations, were reviewed. Spontaneous stability was assessed using two processes: 1) characterization of the ratio of the peak response amplitudes to the excited chamber acoustic mode amplitudes and 2) characterization of the variability of the peak response's frequency over the test duration. This characterization process assists in evaluating the discreteness of a signal as well as the stability of the chamber response. Broadband stability was assessed using a running root-mean-square evaluation. These techniques were also employed, in a comparative analysis, on available Fastrac data, and these results are presented here.

Kenny, R. Jeremy↗

DOE OSTI2026

Avoidance of disruptions on KSTAR due to vertical displacement events via novel real-time stability assessment

Disruption avoidance via the DECAF approach has been achieved on KSTAR using a novel real-time vertical stability assessment and a multiactuator feedback control strategy. The development of disruption avoidance strategies with reactor-relevant reliability is an urgent activity, enabling future fusion power plants. The stability metric employed is based on a new formulation of a vertical force gradient balance metric evaluated across the poloidal cross section of the plasma, with parameters tuned using historical data. Evaluation of this metric on a validation set of 400 recent KSTAR shots indicates >82% of Vertical displacement events can be avoided via feedback control. Essential to its calculation is the two-dimensional toroidal current density distribution in the plasma. Measurement of this profile faster than fully-converged equilibrium reconstructions can deliver is found to improve forecaster performance and is achieved with a surrogate model that takes as input magnetic diagnostic measurements and outputs the current profile on a basis comprising the top principal components of historical current profiles (from past equilibrium reconstructions). This method solves the non-uniqueness problem typically faced when reconstructing current profiles directly from diagnostics, while improving computational time and accuracy. On average, profiles produced by this model reach coefficients of determination of >0.99 with respect to those from equilibrium reconstructions. The avoidance actuators employed include poloidal field coils and an electron cyclotron current drive system. The multiactuator approach, as shown in this first demonstration, allows disruption avoidance while minimizing impact to operational performance. This ability, along with its flexibility and speed, makes this new approach an attractive option for avoiding these types of disruptions in reactors.

Tobin, Matthew [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (Unit↗

NASA NTRS1995

Advanced controls for stability assessment of solar dynamics space power generation

In support of the power requirements for the Space Station Alpha (SSA), a joint program by the U.S. and Russia for a permanently manned space station to be launched into orbit by 1998, a robust control scheme is needed to assure the stability of the rotating machines that will be integrated into the power subsystem. A framework design and systems studies for modeling and analysis is presented. It employs classical d-q axes machine model with voltage/frequency dependent loads. To guarantee that design requirements and necessary trade studies are done, a functional analysis tool CORE is used for the study. This provides us with different control options for stability assessment. Initial studies and recommendations using advanced simulation tools are also presented. The benefits of the stability/control scheme for evaluating future designs and power management are discussed.

Momoh, James A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Initial Stability Assessment of S-NPP VIIRS Reflective Solar Band Calibration Using Invariant Desert and Deep Convective Cloud Targets

The latest CERES FM-5 instrument launched onboard the S-NPP spacecraft will use the VIIRS visible radiances from the NASA Land Product Evaluation and Analysis Tool Elements (PEATE) product for retrieving the cloud properties associated with its TOA flux measurement. In order for CERES to provide climate quality TOA flux datasets, the retrieved cloud properties must be consistent throughout the record, which is dependent on the calibration stability of the VIIRS imager. This paper assesses the NASA calibration stability of the VIIRS reflective solar bands using the Libya-4 desert and deep convective clouds (DCC). The invariant targets are first evaluated for temporal natural variability. It is found for visible (VIS) bands that DCC targets have half of the variability of Libya-4. For the shortwave infrared (SWIR) bands, the desert has less variability. The brief VIIRS record and target variability inhibits high confidence in identifying any trends that are less than 0.6yr for most VIS bands, and 2.5yr for SWIR bands. None of the observed invariant target reflective solar band trends exceeded these trend thresholds. Initial assessment results show that the VIIRS data have been consistently calibrated and that the VIIRS instrument stability is similar to or better than the MODIS instrument.

VIIRS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Controls Algorithms, Models, and Stability Assessments of the RCS and TVC systems on Mars Ascent Vehicle

This paper presents a control systems overview of the Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) control design and stability analysis with two separate control methods: Thrust Vector Control (TVC) based control using main engine thrust and Reaction Control System (RCS) via thrusters. A pole-placement TVC controller is proposed to address quickly peaking thrust produced by the MAV solid propulsion engine. The controllerutilizes real-time parameter estimation to calculate control gains using an online pole-placement method. The pole-placement technique allows the controller to maintain constant stability margins throughout the flight under changing parameters and rapidly peaking thrust. A mathematical stability proof via Lyapunov inequality and Nichols method is demonstrated to support the stability of the method. In addition to the TVC control, a phase-plane based RCS control logic is applied to the vehicle for roll control during ascent and all axes during coast phases of flight. The logic implemented is an on-off type logic that applies pre-determined thrusters firings in reference to boundary parameters of pointing and rate error chosen to balance desired pointing with stability. A describing function methodology is applied to the non-linear phase plane loop response to determine linear stability across all flight phases. The controller additionally applies command alteration logic to output signals to account for RCS hardware limitations. The following paper will provide the methodology for controller implementation of the TVC and RCS, and provide a summary of results of the MAV performance applying the aforementioned control design.

Han Woong Bae↗

NASA NTRS2021

Terra and Aqua MODIS Thermal Emissive Bands Calibration and RVS Stability Assessments Using an In Situ Ocean Target

MODIS, whose openly-public data have been used for over two decades to monitor and address global issues, has 16 Thermal Emissive Bands (TEBs) with central wavelengths that range from 3.7 μm to 14.4 μm, and are calibrated on-orbit using observations from its on-board blackbody. In order to maintain MODIS’ rich, well-calibrated archive of multispectral imagery and data, Earth targets are regularly used to track its long-term stability, as well as the consistency between the two sensors onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. Moreover, these scenes can be used to compare MODIS Earth view data over the complete scan-angle range and evaluate the on-orbit performance of the TEBs response-versus-scan-angle (RVS) over mission lifetime. This manuscript focuses on evaluating the MODIS TEBs Collection (C6.1) radiometric calibration stability for both instruments using an in situ ocean target as reference (hereafter referred to as in situ sea surface temperature (SST)). Furthermore, it will assess the calibration consistency between the MODIS sensors. Lastly, it will analyze the on-orbit RVS stability for Terra and Aqua MODIS. Only cloud-free, nighttime MODIS TEB retrievals were used for the study. A normalization methodology is applied to standardize the MODIS data to the in situ SST. Additionally, spectral corrections were derived between some of the Terra and Aqua MODIS TEBs by using a combination of the MODIS Atmospheric Profile product and MODerate resolution atmospheric TRANsmission (MODTRAN) simulations. Results indicate that most MODIS TEBs exhibit mission-long trends of ±0.50 K – with Terra band 30 presenting the largest downward drift due to residual electronic cross-talk effects. Moreover, the calibration consistency analysis over a warm ocean target demonstrated that the average Terra-to-Aqua MODIS bias for most bands is well within ±0.50 K (bands 27 and 30 show the largest - electronic crosstalk-related - biases). Lastly, the MODIS TEBs RVS trends display changes of ±0.50 K (except for bands 25 and 27 at the end-of-scan angles) for both instruments. Overall, the MODIS TEBs remain well-calibrated and their RVSs aptly-characterized.

MODIS↗

NASA NTRS2003

NASA IKONOS Multispectral Radiometric Calibration and 3-Year Temporal Stability Assessment

Radiometric calibration of commercial imaging satellite products is required to ensure that science and application communities can place confidence in the imagery they use and can fully understand its properties. Inaccurate radiometric calibrations can lead to erroneous decisions and invalid conclusions and can limit intercomparisons with other system. In addition, the user community has little or no insight into the design and operation of commercial sensors or into the methods involved in generating commercial products. To address this calibration need, the NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) Earth Science Applications (ESA) Directorate established a commercial satellite imaging radiometric calibration team consisting of three independent groups: NASA, SSC,ESA, the University of Arizona Remote Sensing Group, and South Dacota State University. Each group determined the absolute radiometric calibration coefficients of the Space Imaging IKONOS 4-band, 4 m multispectral product covering the visible through near-infrared spectral region. For a three year period beginning in 2000, each team employed some variant of a reflectance-based vicarious calibration approach, requiring ground-based measurements coincident with IKONOS image acquisitions and radiative transfer calculations. Several study sites throughout the United States were employed that covered nearly the entire dynamic range of the IKONOS sensor. IKONOS at-sensor radiance values were compared to those estimated by each independent group to determine the IKONOS sensor's radiometric accuracy and stability. Over 10 individual vicariously determined at-sensor radiance estimates were used each year. When combined, these estimates provided a high-precision radiometric gain calibration coefficient. No significant calibration offset was observed. The results of this evaluation provide the scientific community with an independent assessment of the IKONOS sensor's absolute calibration and temporal stability over the 3-year period. While the techniques and method described in this paper reflect those developed at the NASA SSC, the results of the entire team are included.

Pagnutti, Mary↗

NASA NTRS2014

Stability Assessment and Tuning of an Adaptively Augmented Classical Controller for Launch Vehicle Flight Control

Recently, a robust and practical adaptive control scheme for launch vehicles [ [1] has been introduced. It augments a classical controller with a real-time loop-gain adaptation, and it is therefore called Adaptive Augmentation Control (AAC). The loop-gain will be increased from the nominal design when the tracking error between the (filtered) output and the (filtered) command trajectory is large; whereas it will be decreased when excitation of flex or sloshing modes are detected. There is a need to determine the range and rate of the loop-gain adaptation in order to retain (exponential) stability, which is critical in vehicle operation, and to develop some theoretically based heuristic tuning methods for the adaptive law gain parameters. The classical launch vehicle flight controller design technics are based on gain-scheduling, whereby the launch vehicle dynamics model is linearized at selected operating points along the nominal tracking command trajectory, and Linear Time-Invariant (LTI) controller design techniques are employed to ensure asymptotic stability of the tracking error dynamics, typically by meeting some prescribed Gain Margin (GM) and Phase Margin (PM) specifications. The controller gains at the design points are then scheduled, tuned and sometimes interpolated to achieve good performance and stability robustness under external disturbances (e.g. winds) and structural perturbations (e.g. vehicle modeling errors). While the GM does give a bound for loop-gain variation without losing stability, it is for constant dispersions of the loop-gain because the GM is based on frequency-domain analysis, which is applicable only for LTI systems. The real-time adaptive loop-gain variation of the AAC effectively renders the closed-loop system a time-varying system, for which it is well-known that the LTI system stability criterion is neither necessary nor sufficient when applying to a Linear Time-Varying (LTV) system in a frozen-time fashion. Therefore, a generalized stability metric for time-varying loop=gain perturbations is needed for the AAC.

VanZwieten, Tannen↗

NASA NTRS2014

Combustion Stability Assessments of the Black Brant Solid Rocket Motor

The Black Brant variation of the Standard Brant developed in the 1960's has been a workhorse motor of the NASA Sounding Rocket Project Office (SRPO) since the 1970's. In March 2012, the Black Brant Mk1 used on mission 36.277 experienced combustion instability during a flight at White Sands Missile Range, the third event in the last four years, the first occurring in November, 2009, the second in April 2010. After the 2010 event the program has been increasing the motor's throat diameter post-delivery with the goal of lowering the chamber pressure and increasing the margin against combustion instability. During the most recent combustion instability event, the vibrations exceeded the qualification levels for the Flight Termination System. The present study utilizes data generated from T-burner testing of multiple Black Brant propellants at the Naval Air Warfare Center at China Lake, to improve the combustion stability predictions for the Black Brant Mk1 and to generate new predictions for the Mk2. Three unique one dimensional (1-D) stability models were generated, representing distinct Black Brant flights, two of which experienced instabilities. The individual models allowed for comparison of stability characteristics between various nozzle configurations. A long standing "rule of thumb" states that increased stability margin is gained by increasing the throat diameter. In contradiction to this experience based rule, the analysis shows that little or no margin is gained from a larger throat diameter. The present analysis demonstrates competing effects resulting from an increased throat diameter accompanying a large response function. As is expected, more acoustic energy was expelled through the nozzle, but conversely more acoustic energy was generated due to larger gas velocities near the propellant surfaces.

Fischbach, Sean↗

DOE OSTI2023