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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Demystifying Piecewise and Localized Scatter Correction Methods

Multiplicative scatter is a common source of noise in near-infrared spectroscopy and other related instrumental techniques. A wide variety of methods are commonly used for the correction of multiplicative scatter. However, the majority of such methods assume that the parameters that describe the scatter are constant throughout the measured spectrum, which is often not the case. This work investigates a family of methods that perform scatter correction using local regions of neighboring wavelengths in order to better account for wavelength-dependent scattering. The methods in question are piecewise standard normal variate, localized standard normal variate, piecewise multiplicative scatter correction, and localized multiplicative scatter correction. This work describes the theoretical and algorithmic foundations of the family of local region-based scatter correction methods and compares their application and optimization at a qualitative and quantitative level using several datasets.

NIR spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2023

An interlaboratory comparison of mid-infrared spectra acquisition: Instruments and procedures matter

Diffuse reflectance spectroscopy has been extensively employed to deliver timely and cost-effective predictions of a number of soil properties. However, although several soil spectral laboratories have been established worldwide, the distinct characteristics of instruments and operations still hamper further integration and interoperability across mid-infrared (MIR) soil spectral libraries. In this study, we conducted a large-scale ring trial experiment to understand the lab-to-lab variability of multiple MIR instruments. By developing a systematic evaluation of different mathematical treatments with modeling algorithms, including regular preprocessing and spectral standardization, we quantified and evaluated instruments' dissimilarity and how this impacts internal and shared model performance. We found that all instruments delivered good predictions when calibrated internally using the same instruments' characteristics and standard operating procedures by solely relying on regular spectral preprocessing that accounts for light scattering and multiplicative/additive effects, e.g., using standard normal variate (SNV). When performing model transfer from a large public library (the USDA NSSCKSSL MIR library) to secondary instruments, good performance was also achieved by regular preprocessing (e. g., SNV) if both instruments shared the same manufacturer. However, significant differences between the KSSL MIR library and contrasting ring trial instruments responses were evident and confirmed by a semi-unsupervised spectral clustering. For heavily contrasting setups, spectral standardization was necessary before transferring prediction models. Non-linear model types like Cubist and memory-based learning delivered more precise estimates because they seemed to be less sensitive to spectral variations than global partial least square regression. In summary, the results from this study can assist new laboratories in building spectroscopy capacity utilizing existing MIR spectral libraries and support the recent global efforts to make soil spectroscopy universally accessible with centralized or shared operating procedures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Non-destructive measurement and real-time monitoring of apple hardness during ultrasonic contact drying via portable NIR spectroscopy and machine learning

Portable near-infrared spectrometer in the spectral range of 900–1700 nm was evaluated for the first time to assess and monitor apple hardness in real-time during ultrasonic drying. Calibration models were developed using PLS and ANN, and their performances were evaluated by internal leave-one-out cross-validation and an external dataset. Several pre-treatments including standard normal variate (SNV), multiplicative scatter correction (MSC), Savitzky–Golay first and second derivatives were employed to examine the effects of spectral variations in hardness prediction. Seven important wavelengths were selected using weighted regression coefficients to develop a simple MLR model to facilitate the model interpretation and circumvent noise. The models using PLS, MLR, and ANN with selected wavelengths predicted the apple hardness with R 2 p of 0.91, 0.91, 0.95, and RMSEP of 14.78, 14.85, and 12.46 N, respectively. Finally, the results indicate that portable NIR spectrometers are quite promising for real-time monitoring of apple hardness during ultrasonic drying.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving Variational Autoencoders for New Physics Detection at the LHC With Normalizing Flows

We investigate how to improve new physics detection strategies exploiting variational autoencoders and normalizing flows for anomaly detection at the Large Hadron Collider. As a working example, we consider the DarkMachines challenge dataset. We show how different design choices (e.g., event representations, anomaly score definitions, network architectures) affect the result on specific benchmark new physics models. Once a baseline is established, we discuss how to improve the anomaly detection accuracy by exploiting normalizing flow layers in the latent space of the variational autoencoder.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Texture analysis of placental MRI: can it aid in the prenatal diagnosis of placenta accreta spectrum?

Purpose: To determine if texture analysis can differentiate placenta accreta spectrum (PAS) from normal placenta on MRI. Methods: We performed retrospective image analysis of 80 patients, comprised of 46 patients with PAS and 34 patients without PAS. Histopathology was used as the reference standard. Sagittal single shot fast spin echo T2-weighted MRI sequences acquired from a single institution were analyzed. Placental heterogeneity was quantified using in-house software on a Matlab platform, including the standard deviation of pixel intensity, coefficient of variation, gray-level co-occurrence matrices (GLCM), histogram-oriented gradients (HOG), and fractal analysis with box sizes from 2 to 512. Two-tailed unpaired Student’s t test was used with statistical significance of p < 0.05. Results: PAS was associated with higher values for standard deviation of pixel intensity and fractal analysis at every box size. Fractal analysis at box sizes 256 (p = 0.011) and 32 (p = 0.021), and standard deviation of pixel intensity (p = 0.023) were the most statistically significant. Fractal values at box size 256 for PAS was 0.13 versus 0.090 for patients without PAS, while standard deviation of pixel intensity was 3.7 for PAS versus 2.5 for patients without PAS. No statistically significant association between PAS and GLCM, coefficient of variation, and HOG was found. Conclusion: Statistically significant differences were found between normal and abnormal groups using standard deviation of pixel intensity and fractal analysis.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Assessment of the baseline scenario at q 95 ~ 3 for ITER

The International Tokamak Physics Activity topical group on integrated operational scenarios has compiled a database of stationary H-mode discharges at q 95 ~ 3 from AUG, C-Mod, DIII-D, JET and JT-60U, for both carbon wall and high-Z metal wall experiments with ~3300 entries. The analyses focus on discharges that are stationary for ≥5 thermal energy confinement times to evaluate the baseline scenario proposed for ITER at 15 MA for achieving its goals of Q = 10, fusion power of 500 MW at normalized pressure, β N = 1.8 and normalized confinement as predicted by the standard H-mode scaling, H 98y2 = 1. With the data restricted to stationary H-modes at q 95 ~ 3, the database shows significant variation of thermal energy confinement compared to the standard H-mode scaling (IPB98(y,2)) in dimensionless form. The data show similar scaling with normalized gyro-radius, but more favorable scaling towards lower collision frequency and more favorable scaling with plasma beta. Using all the engineering variables employed in IPB98(y,2), results in an overfit due to correlations among the data. Furthermore, there are significant residual trends in the confinement for plasma current, device size, loss power, and in particular for the plasma density. Significant differences between results obtained for devices with a carbon wall and high-Z metal wall are observed in the data, with data from carbon wall devices providing a larger operating space, encompassing ITER parameters or even exceeding them. H-modes in high-Z metal wall devices have, so-far, not accessed conditions at low collision frequencies, have lower normalized confinement (H 98y2 ~ 0.8–0.9) at low input power or beta, achieving H 98y2 ~ 1.0 only at input powers two times the L- to H-mode transition scaling predictions and at β N ~ 2.0. Hence, only the best H-modes with high-Z metal walls reach ITER baseline performance requirements.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeled production, oxidation, and transport processes of wetland methane emissions in temperate, boreal, and Arctic regions

Abstract Wetlands are the largest natural source of methane (CH 4 ) to the atmosphere. The eddy covariance method provides robust measurements of net ecosystem exchange of CH 4 , but interpreting its spatiotemporal variations is challenging due to the co‐occurrence of CH 4 production, oxidation, and transport dynamics. Here, we estimate these three processes using a data‐model fusion approach across 25 wetlands in temperate, boreal, and Arctic regions. Our data‐constrained model—iPEACE—reasonably reproduced CH 4 emissions at 19 of the 25 sites with normalized root mean square error of 0.59, correlation coefficient of 0.82, and normalized standard deviation of 0.87. Among the three processes, CH 4 production appeared to be the most important process, followed by oxidation in explaining inter‐site variations in CH 4 emissions. Based on a sensitivity analysis, CH 4 emissions were generally more sensitive to decreased water table than to increased gross primary productivity or soil temperature. For periods with leaf area index (LAI) of ≥20% of its annual peak, plant‐mediated transport appeared to be the major pathway for CH 4 transport. Contributions from ebullition and diffusion were relatively high during low LAI (<20%) periods. The lag time between CH 4 production and CH 4 emissions tended to be short in fen sites (3 ± 2 days) and long in bog sites (13 ± 10 days). Based on a principal component analysis, we found that parameters for CH 4 production, plant‐mediated transport, and diffusion through water explained 77% of the variance in the parameters across the 19 sites, highlighting the importance of these parameters for predicting wetland CH 4 emissions across biomes. These processes and associated parameters for CH 4 emissions among and within the wetlands provide useful insights for interpreting observed net CH 4 fluxes, estimating sensitivities to biophysical variables, and modeling global CH 4 fluxes.

Ueyama, Masahito↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pyrolysis_Molecular_Beam_Mass_Spectra_for_Standard_Biomass_Samples_and_Natural_Variants_of_Switchgrass_Grown_Under_Different_Conditions

This data consists of total ion chromatogram (TIC) normalized Pyrolysis-Molecular Beam Mass Spectrometry (py-MBMS) spectra collected to predict lignin content and lignin monomeric ratios for “Variation in Biomass Yield and Cell Wall Composition in Switchgrass Natural Variants Under Two Nitrogen Regimes” (https://doi.org/10.1007/s12155-025-10838-8).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Techno-economic analysis of the use of atomic layer deposited transition metal oxides in silicon heterojunction solar cells

The industry for producing silicon solar cells and modules has grown remarkably over the past decades, with more than a 100-fold reduction in price over the past 45?years. The main solar cell fabrication technology has shifted over that time and is currently dominated by the passivated emitter and rear cell (PERC). Other technologies are expected to increase in market share, including tunnel-oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) and heterojunction technology (HJT). In this paper, we examine the cost potential for using atomic layer deposition (ALD) to form transition metal oxide (TMO) layers (MoO x , TiO x and aluminium-doped zinc oxide [AZO]) to use as lower cost alternatives of the p-doped, n-doped and indium tin oxide (ITO) layers, respectively, the layers normally used in HJT solar cells. Using a bottom-up cost and uncertainty model with equipment cost data and process experience in the lab, we find that the production cost of these variations will likely be lower per wafer than standard HJT, with the main cost drivers being the cost of the ALD precursors at high-volume production. We then considered what efficiency is required for these sequences to be cost effective in $/W and discuss whether these targets are technically feasible. This work motivates further work in developing these ALD TMO processes to increase their efficiency towards their theoretical limits to take advantage of the processing cost advantage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Broadband (0–5 Hz) Fully Deterministic 3D Ground‐Motion Simulations of a Magnitude 7.0 Hayward Fault Earthquake: Comparison with Empirical Ground‐Motion Models and 3D Path and Site Effects from Source Normalized Intensities

We report on high‐performance computing (HPC) fully deterministic simulation of ground motions for a moment magnitude (⁠Mw⁠) 7.0 scenario earthquake on the Hayward fault resolved to 5 Hz using the SW4 finite‐difference code. We computed motions obeying physics‐based 3D wave propagation at a regional scale with an Mw 7.0 kinematic rupture model generated following Graves and Pitarka (2016). Both plane‐layered (1D) and 3D Earth models were considered, with 3D subsurface material properties and topography interpolated from a model of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The resulting ground‐motion intensities cover a broader frequency range than typically considered in regional‐scale simulations, including higher frequencies relevant for engineering analysis of structures. Median intensities for sites across the domain are within the reported between‐event uncertainties (⁠τ⁠) of ground‐motion models (GMMs) across spectral periods 0.2–10 s (frequencies 0.1–5 Hz). The within‐event standard deviation ϕ of ground‐motion intensity measurement residuals range 0.2–0.5 natural log units with values consistently larger for the 3D model. Source‐normalized ratios of intensities (3D/1D) reveal patterns of path and site effects that are correlated with known geologic structure. These results demonstrate that earthquake simulations with fully deterministic wave propagation in 3D Earth models on HPC platforms produce broadband ground motions with median and within‐event aleatory variability consistent with empirical models. Systematic intensity variations for the 3D model caused by path and site effects suggest that these epistemic effects can be estimated and removed to reduce variation in site‐specific hazard estimates. This study motivates future work to evaluate the validity of the USGS 3D model and investigate the development of path and site corrections by running more scenarios.

Rodgers, Arthur J.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Statistical analyses of reservoir and fracturing parameters for a multifractured shale oil reservoir in Mississippi

The use of multifractured horizontal wells has improved the efficiency of hydrocarbon extraction from shale gas and oil plays. It is highly desirable to estimate the characteristics of the reservoir and well fracturing through production data analysis. Production rate transient data from 16 wells in the Mississippi sections were analyzed to estimate local reservoir permeability and hydraulic fracture parameters. Key factors affecting well productivity have been identified for optimizing future well completion. Based on the theory of distance of investigation during transient linear flow, the reservoir matrix permeability of TMS was estimated to be between 53 nd and 210 nd, averaging at 116 nd. The matrix permeability follows the lognormal distribution and is considered homogeneous according to the coefficient of variation. The fracture half-length was estimated using the matrix permeability data from the rate transient analysis. The fracture half-length was found to have a mean value of 234 ft with a standard deviation of 66 ft in a normal distribution. The fracture conductivity was back-calculated by matching pseudosteady production rate data to Guo et al's (SPE Reserve Eval Eng.12, 2009, 879) productivity model for boundary-dominated flow. The fracture conductivity was estimated to range from 0.4 md-ft to 3.2 md-ft, averaging at 1.4 md-ft. Based on Guo et al's (SPE Reserve Eval Eng.12, 2009, 879) well productivity model applied to TMS condition, well productivity can be improved significantly by increasing fracture length and conductivity. Future TMS wells should be completed with conductivity values of greater than 10 md-ft.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Clutter Distributions for Tomographic Image Standardization in Ground-Penetrating Radar

Multistatic ground-penetrating radar (GPR) signals can be imaged tomographically to produce 3-D distributions of image intensities. In the absence of objects of interest, these intensities can be considered to be estimates of clutter. These clutter intensities spatially vary over several orders of magnitude and vary across different arrays, which makes a direct comparison of these raw intensities difficult. However, by gathering statistics on these intensities and their spatial variation, a variety of metrics can be determined. In this study, the clutter distribution is found to fit better to a two-parameter Weibull distribution than Gaussian or log-normal distributions. Based on the spatial variation of the two Weibull parameters, scale and shape, more information may be gleaned from these data. How well the GPR array is illuminating various parts of the ground, in depth and cross track, may be determined from the spatial variation of the Weibull scale parameter, which may in turn be used to estimate an effective attenuation coefficient in the soil. The transition in depth from clutter- to noise-limited conditions (which is one possible definition of GPR penetration depth) can be estimated from the spatial variation of the Weibull shape parameter. Lastly, the underlying clutter distributions also provide an opportunity to standardize image intensities to determine when a statistically significant deviation from background (clutter) has occurred, which is convenient for buried threat detection algorithm development that needs to be robust across multiple different arrays.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Performance of Photovoltaic Systems Recorded by Open Solar Performance and Reliability Clearinghouse (oSPARC)

This article analyzes data from 2,200 photovoltaic systems collected through the Open Solar Performance and Reliability Clearinghouse (oSPARC, 2018) to draw conclusions about the measured performance of the systems, how it compares to expectations, and how wide the variation is. The systems range in size from 2 kW to 1,200 kW, with an average size of 229 kW, and were activated in oSPARC between March 13, 2007 and Dec. 16, 2016. Data regarding co-incident insolation and ambient temperature are provided through the oSPARC platform for the population of systems and summarized here. Results indicate that - after correcting for measured insolation, derating for temperature, and correcting for balance-of-system efficiency and degradation as a result of system age - the performance ratio of these 2,200 systems averages 91.7%. Adjusting for known parameters such as age and efficiency, the ratio would ideally be 100%. Thus, the 'underperformance' of this system sample is measured at 9.3% and suggests that as much as 9.3% could be recovered if the systems were caused to perform as expected through optimal operation and maintenance. Efforts to correlate the performance ratio with environmental conditions resulted in very low coefficients of regression, but the method already normalizes for actual site insolation and temperature, which are responsible for much of the site-specific variation. An exemption is air-quality nonattainment areas, where the measured performance of plants averages 86.9% and is consistently lower than the average of 95.9% in areas that are in compliance with air quality standards, likely because of particulate matter such as diesel soot exacerbating the soiling rate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimation of intensity, footprint, and capacity of surface urban heat islands using a direction-enhanced adaptive synchronous extraction (DEASE) method

Here, the surface urban heat island (SUHI) effect, assessed through remotely sensed land surface temperature (LST), remains a focal point in urban climate research. Conventional indicators like SUHI intensity (SUHII) and footprint (SUHIF) capture peak values and spatial extent but fail to account for the cumulative thermal load—a critical dimension reflecting the total heat exposure imposed by spatially continuous warming, which directly limits a holistic assessment of ecological and societal impacts of the SUHI effect. Therefore, this study introduces an indicator termed SUHI capacity (SUHIC), designed to quantify the aggregated SUHI effect by integrating the magnitude of the warming signal across all affected areas, thereby enabling a more comprehensive evaluation of urban thermal environments. Furthermore, a direction-enhanced adaptive synchronous extraction (DEASE) method is proposed for the quantification of SUHIC. This method can dynamically identify the optimal background reference area based on the urban-rural LST gradients in various directions within the city, without relying on predefined mathematical models as previously. The results from 102 European cities first confirm that the directional variations in urban-rural LST gradients, and the DEASE method can effectively capture these distinctions for the simultaneous estimation of SUHII, SUHIF, and SUHIC. Secondly, the spatial patterns of absolute SUHIC values show strong associations with those of SUHIF (R2>0.86), while its relative values (normalized by the area of urban) align more closely with SUHII (R2 > 0.64). More importantly, SUHIC can serve as a crucial reference for assessing the urban thermal signal when SUHII and SUHIF diverge. The proposed method and framework contribute to standardizing the quantification of the SUHI effect.

Indicator↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global centroid moment tensor solutions in a heterogeneous earth: the CMT3D catalogue

SUMMARY For over 40 yr, the global centroid-moment tensor (GCMT) project has determined location and source parameters for globally recorded earthquakes larger than magnitude 5.0. The GCMT database remains a trusted staple for the geophysical community. Its point-source moment-tensor solutions are the result of inversions that model long-period observed seismic waveforms via normal-mode summation for a 1-D reference earth model, augmented by path corrections to capture 3-D variations in surface wave phase speeds, and to account for crustal structure. While this methodology remains essentially unchanged for the ongoing GCMT catalogue, source inversions based on waveform modelling in low-resolution 3-D earth models have revealed small but persistent biases in the standard modelling approach. Keeping pace with the increased capacity and demands of global tomography requires a revised catalogue of centroid-moment tensors (CMT), automatically and reproducibly computed using Green's functions from a state-of-the-art 3-D earth model. In this paper, we modify the current procedure for the full-waveform inversion of seismic traces for the six moment-tensor parameters, centroid latitude, longitude, depth and centroid time of global earthquakes. We take the GCMT solutions as a point of departure but update them to account for the effects of a heterogeneous earth, using the global 3-D wave speed model GLAD-M25. We generate synthetic seismograms from Green's functions computed by the spectral-element method in the 3-D model, select observed seismic data and remove their instrument response, process synthetic and observed data, select segments of observed and synthetic data based on similarity, and invert for new model parameters of the earthquake’s centroid location, time and moment tensor. The events in our new, preliminary database containing 9382 global event solutions, called CMT3D for ‘3-D centroid-moment tensors’, are on average 4 km shallower, about 1 s earlier, about 5 per cent larger in scalar moment, and more double-couple in nature than in the GCMT catalogue. We discuss in detail the geographical and statistical distributions of the updated solutions, and place them in the context of earlier work. We plan to disseminate our CMT3D solutions via the online ShakeMovie platform.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The role of the spatial heterogeneity and correlation length of surface wettability on two-phase flow in a CO 2 -water-rock system

This study characterized and modeled heterogeneous surface wettability in sandstone and investigated the role of spatial heterogeneity and correlation length of surface wettability on relative permeability in a supercritical CO 2 (scCO 2 )-brine-rock system. Understanding the role of wettability heterogeneity on relative permeability is essential to geological CO 2 sequestration, oil and gas recovery, and contaminated groundwater remediation. Although numerous studies have attempted to understand the influences of surface wettability, capillary number (Ca), and viscosity ratio, the role of the spatial variation and correlation length of surface wettability on two-phase flow in three-dimensional (3D) porous media has not been unraveled due to the challenges in the measurement and representation of realistic rock surface wettability. In this work, we conducted in-situ measurements of surface contact angle (CA) in a Bentheimer sandstone after CO 2 flooding using micro-computed tomography (micro-CT), and found that the pore-scale CA distribution on rock surfaces followed a log-normal distribution associated with a spatial correlation length. Based on the statistical information from CT scanning, a Gaussian random field was used to model CA distributions that had desired standard deviations and spatial correlation lengths, which were then adjusted within a certain range of values for sensitivity analyses to study their combined effects on the two-phase flow in the porous medium using the lattice Boltzmann (LB) method. The LB two-phase flow simulation was accelerated using hybrid, multicore parallel computing to overcome the challenges in simulating multiphase flow in a large 3D domain having 800 × 800 × 600 nodes. The simulation results showed that the surface wettability heterogeneity (i.e., standard deviation of CA) had a lesser effect on the relative permeability of the wetting fluid (water) but a more significant impact on the relative permeability of the non-wetting fluid (scCO 2 ). The Corey model was used to fit the LB-simulated relative permeability curves of water and scCO 2 and showed that the variations in the relative permeability curves for both water and scCO 2 increased as the standard deviation and spatial correlation length of CA increased. This study illustrated that the assumption of homogeneous surface wettability may cause errors in multiphase flow simulations. Furthermore, the impacts of both the standard deviation and spatial correlation length of CAs should be accounted for. This is the first study that explored the spatial correlation lengths associated with CA distributions on sandstone surfaces and comprehensively investigated the roles of both spatial variation and correlation length of CA on two-phase flow properties in 3D porous media. The optimized LB multiphase flow model was proved a powerful tool to study the interplays and combined effects of these statistical parameters, which had critical applications in numerous natural and engineering processes that involved multiphase flow in porous media.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

A XANES and EPMA study of Fe3+ in chlorite: Importance of oxychlorite and implications for cation site distribution and thermobarometry

Chlorite is a ubiquitous product of metamorphism, alteration of magmatic rocks and hydrothermal processes owing to its large stability field and wide compositional range. Its composition is governed by several substitutions and has been used as a geothermometer, on the basis of empirical, semi-empirical, and thermodynamic models. As in some other phyllosilicates of petrological interest, the oxidation state of iron in chlorite may differ from the usually assumed divalent state. Yet, the crystal chemistry of trivalent iron in chlorite remains poorly known, and the thermodynamic properties of ferric chlorite are missing from databases used for petrological modeling. As part of an attempt to fill this gap, we present conclusions from in situ, micrometer-scale measurements of the oxidation state of iron in various chlorite-bearing samples. X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy (XANES) was combined with electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) on the same crystals. Results show iron oxidation states varying from ferrous to ferric; iron is in octahedral coordination in all ferromagnesian chlorites but to ~ 25% tetrahedral in the lithian chlorite cookeite (1.0 wt% Fe 2 O 3(total) ). Absolute amounts of ferric iron cover an unprecedented range (0 to ~ 30 wt% Fe 2 O 3 ). For highly magnesian, ferric chlorite, Fe concentrations are low and can be accounted for by Al = Fe 3+ substitution. In Fe-rich samples, Fe 3+ may exceed 2 atoms per formula unit (pfu, 18 oxygen basis). When structural formulas are normalized to 28 charges corresponding to the standard O 10 (OH) 8 anionic basis, these measurements define the exchange vector of a di-trioctahedral-type substitution: 3 VI (Mg, Fe 2+ ) = VI $\square$ + 2 VI Fe 3+ , as described in earlier studies. However, structural formulas calculated on the basis of the oxygen contents actually measured by EPMA show that this trend is an artifact, due to the neglect of variations in the number of protons in the structure. Our measurements indicate increasing hydrogen deficiency with increasing Fe 3+ content, up to ~ to 2 H + pfu in the Fe 3+ -rich chlorite samples, corresponding to a net exchange vector of the type R 2+ + H + = Fe 3+ . These results do not support substitutions toward di-trioctahedral ferric end-members, and highlight the need for considering substitution toward an "oxychlorite" (i.e., H-deficient) ferric component, close to tri-trioctahedral, with an O 12 (OH) 6 anionic basis, even in green, pristine-looking chlorite. The effects of iron oxidation and H deficiency on chlorite geothermometers were explored. They are deterring if H deficiency is ignored but, given the sensitivity of most thermometers to octahedral vacancy, the assumption Fe total = Fe 2+ is still safer than using high measured Fe 3+ contents and the standard 28 charge basis, which artificially increases vacancies. In such ferric chlorites, EPMA measurement of oxygen allows a fair estimate of H content if Fe 3+ /Fe 2+ is known; it should be more systematically implemented. For the same reasons, literature data reporting Fe 3+ -rich chlorite with vacancy content along the possibly artificial di-trioctahedral-type substitution should be verified. With the help of constraints from thermodynamic models, charge balance, crystal symmetry, and proton loss, a new cation site distribution is proposed for di-tri- to tri-trioctahedral chlorites in the Fe 2+ -Fe 3+ -Mg-Al-Si-O-H system, allowing a more realistic thermodynamic handling of their solid solutions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Disruption event characterization and forecasting in tokamaks

Disruption prediction and avoidance is a critical need for next-step tokamaks, such as ITER. Disruption Event Characterization and Forecasting (DECAF) research fully automates analysis of tokamak data to determine chains of events that lead to disruptions and to forecast their evolution allowing sufficient time for mitigation or complete avoidance of the disruption. Disruption event chains related to local rotating or global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modes and vertical instability are examined with warnings issued for many off-normal physics events, including density limits, plasma dynamics, confinement transitions, and profile variations. Along with Greenwald density limit evaluation, a local radiative island power balance theory is evaluated and compared to the observation of island growth. Automated decomposition and analysis of rotating tearing modes produce physical event chains leading to disruptions. A total MHD state warning model comprised of 15 separate criteria produces a disruption forecast about 180 ms before a standard locked mode detector warning. Single DECAF event analyses have begun on KSTAR, MAST, and NSTX/-U databases with thousands of shot seconds of device operation using from 0.5 to 1 × 10 6 tested sample times per device. An initial multi-device database comparison illustrates a highly important result that plasma disruptivity does not need to increase as βN increases. Global MHD instabilities, such as resistive wall modes (RWMs), can give the briefest time period of warning before disruption compared to other physics events. In an NSTX database with unstable RWMs, the mode onset, loss of boundary and current control, and disruption event warnings are found in all cases and vertical displacement events are found in 91% of cases. An initial time-dependent reduced physics model of kinetic RWM stabilization created to forecast the disruption chain predicts instability 84% of the time for experimentally unstable cases with a relatively low false positive rate. Instances of the disruption event chain analysis illustrate dynamics including H–L back transitions for rotating MHD and global RWM triggering events. Furthermore, disruption warnings are issued with sufficient time before the disruption (on transport timescales) to potentially allow active profile control for disruption avoidance, active mode control, or mitigation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗