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Results for “state prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Systems and Methods for Automated Vessel Navigation Using Sea State Prediction

Systems and methods for sea state prediction and autonomous navigation in accordance with embodiments of the invention are disclosed. One embodiment of the invention includes a method of predicting a future sea state including generating a sequence of at least two 3D images of a sea surface using at least two image sensors, detecting peaks and troughs in the 3D images using a processor, identifying at least one wavefront in each 3D image based upon the detected peaks and troughs using the processor, characterizing at least one propagating wave based upon the propagation of wavefronts detected in the sequence of 3D images using the processor, and predicting a future sea state using at least one propagating wave characterizing the propagation of wavefronts in the sequence of 3D images using the processor. Another embodiment includes a method of autonomous vessel navigation based upon a predicted sea state and target location.

Huntsberger, Terrance L.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Systems and Methods for Automated Vessel Navigation Using Sea State Prediction

Systems and methods for sea state prediction and autonomous navigation in accordance with embodiments of the invention are disclosed. One embodiment of the invention includes a method of predicting a future sea state including generating a sequence of at least two 3D images of a sea surface using at least two image sensors, detecting peaks and troughs in the 3D images using a processor, identifying at least one wavefront in each 3D image based upon the detected peaks and troughs using the processor, characterizing at least one propagating wave based upon the propagation of wavefronts detected in the sequence of 3D images using the processor, and predicting a future sea state using at least one propagating wave characterizing the propagation of wavefronts in the sequence of 3D images using the processor. Another embodiment includes a method of autonomous vessel navigation based upon a predicted sea state and target location.

Huntsberger, Terrance L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A graph neural network-state predictive information bottleneck (GNN-SPIB) approach for learning molecular thermodynamics and kinetics

Molecular dynamics simulations offer detailed insights into atomic motions but face timescale limitations. Enhanced sampling methods have addressed these challenges but even with machine learning, they often rely on pre-selected expert-based features. Here, in this work, we present a Graph Neural Network-State Predictive Information Bottleneck (GNN-SPIB) framework, which combines graph neural networks and the state predictive information bottleneck to automatically learn low-dimensional representations directly from atomic coordinates. Tested on three benchmark systems, our approach predicts essential structural, thermodynamic and kinetic information for slow processes, demonstrating robustness across diverse systems. The method shows promise for complex systems, enabling effective enhanced sampling without requiring pre-defined reaction coordinates or input features.

Zou, Ziyue↗
NASA NTRS2016

Dynamic Filtering Improves Attentional State Prediction with fNIRS

Brain activity can predict a person's level of engagement in an attentional task. However, estimates of brain activity are often confounded by measurement artifacts and systemic physiological noise. The optimal method for filtering this noise - thereby increasing such state prediction accuracy - remains unclear. To investigate this, we asked study participants to perform an attentional task while we monitored their brain activity with functional near infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS). We observed higher state prediction accuracy when noise in the fNIRS hemoglobin [Hb] signals was filtered with a non-stationary (adaptive) model as compared to static regression (84% +/- 6% versus 72% +/- 15%).

Harrivel, Angela R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulating Crystallization in a Colloidal System Using State Predictive Information Bottleneck Based Enhanced Sampling

Here, we investigate crystal nucleation in supersaturated colloid suspensions using enhanced molecular dynamics simulations augmented with machine learning techniques. The simulations reveal that crystallization in the model colloidal system studied here, with particles interacting through a repulsive screened Coulomb Yukawa potential, proceeds from vapor to dense liquid droplet to crystalline phases across multiple high barriers. Employing a one-dimensional reaction coordinate derived from the State Predictive Information Bottleneck framework, our simulations capture back-and-forth phase transitions across multiple barriers effectively in biased metadynamics simulations. We obtain relative free energy differences between different phases and also quantify the roles of different molecular level features in driving the phase changes.

Chemistry↗
NASA NTRS2007

Acoustic Prediction State of the Art Assessment

The acoustic assessment task for both the Subsonic Fixed Wing and the Supersonic projects under NASA s Fundamental Aeronautics Program was designed to assess the current state-of-the-art in noise prediction capability and to establish baselines for gauging future progress. The documentation of our current capabilities included quantifying the differences between predictions of noise from computer codes and measurements of noise from experimental tests. Quantifying the accuracy of both the computed and experimental results further enhanced the credibility of the assessment. This presentation gives sample results from codes representative of NASA s capabilities in aircraft noise prediction both for systems and components. These include semi-empirical, statistical, analytical, and numerical codes. System level results are shown for both aircraft and engines. Component level results are shown for a landing gear prototype, for fan broadband noise, for jet noise from a subsonic round nozzle, and for propulsion airframe aeroacoustic interactions. Additional results are shown for modeling of the acoustic behavior of duct acoustic lining and the attenuation of sound in lined ducts with flow.

Dahl, Milo D.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Meta2DB: Curated Shotgun Metagenomic Feature Sets and Metadata for Health State Prediction

Meta2DB is a curated metagenomic and metadata database that provides structurally consistent microbiome taxonomy feature count tables for 13 897 samples across 84 studies, 23 disease states, and 34 geographical locations. All samples were uniformly processed using a streamlined metagenomic classification pipeline that employs a unique and comprehensive reference database indexed to contain all sequences across all kingdoms of life that were present in the NCBI Nucleotide (nt) database retrieved on 4 January 2023. This pipeline leverages high-performance computing (HPC) resources at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and was used to process 50TB of publicly available raw metagenomic sequence data. Extensive metadata curation was carried out through a combination of manual curation and automated parsing, producing a consistent inter-study metadata table specifically structured to facilitate training of ML models for prediction of human health.

Kok, C [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LL↗
DOE OSTI2024

Asymptotic-state prediction for fast flavor transformation in neutron star mergers

Neutrino flavor instabilities appear to be omnipresent in dense astrophysical environments, thus presenting a challenge to large-scale simulations of core-collapse supernovae and neutron star mergers (NSMs). Subgrid models offer a path forward, but require an accurate determination of the local outcome of such conversion phenomena. Focusing on “fast” instabilities, related to the existence of a crossing between neutrino and antineutrino angular distributions, we consider a range of analytical mixing schemes, including a new, fully three-dimensional one, and also introduce a new machine learning (ML) model. We compare the accuracy of these models with the results of several thousands of local dynamical calculations of neutrino evolution from the conditions extracted from classical NSM simulations. Our ML model shows good overall performance, but struggles to generalize to conditions from a NSM simulation not used for training. The multidimensional analytic model performs and generalizes even better, while other analytic models (which assume axisymmetric neutrino distributions) do not have reliably high performances, as they notably fail as expected to account for effects resulting from strong anisotropies. As a result, the ML and analytic subgrid models extensively tested here are both promising, with different computational requirements and sources of systematic errors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictive Complexity of Quantum Subsystems

We define predictive states and predictive complexity for quantum systems composed of distinct subsystems. This complexity is a generalization of entanglement entropy. It is inspired by the statistical or forecasting complexity of predictive state analysis of stochastic and complex systems theory but is intrinsically quantum. Predictive states of a subsystem are formed by equivalence classes of state vectors in the exterior Hilbert space that effectively predict the same future behavior of that subsystem for some time. As an illustrative example, we present calculations in the dynamics of an isotropic Heisenberg model spin chain and show that, in comparison to the entanglement entropy, the predictive complexity better signifies dynamically important events, such as magnon collisions. It can also serve as a local order parameter that can distinguish long and short range entanglement.

Asplund, Curtis T. (ORCID:0000000305575850)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating explainable transfer learning for battery lifetime prediction under state transitions

Battery lifetime prediction at early cycles is crucial for researchers and manufacturers to examine product quality and promote technology development. Machine learning has been widely utilized to construct data-driven solutions for high-accuracy predictions. However, the internal mechanisms of batteries are sensitive to many factors, such as charging/discharging protocols, manufacturing/storage conditions, and usage patterns. These factors will induce state transitions, thereby decreasing the prediction accuracy of data-driven approaches. Transfer learning is a promising technique that overcomes this difficulty and achieves accurate predictions by jointly utilizing information from various sources. Hence, we develop two transfer learning methods, Bayesian Model Fusion and Weighted Orthogonal Matching Pursuit, to strategically combine prior knowledge with limited information from the target dataset to achieve superior prediction performance. From our results, our transfer learning methods reduce root-mean-squared error by 41% through adapting to the target domain. Furthermore, the transfer learning strategies identify the variations of impactful features across different sets of batteries and therefore disentangle the battery degradation mechanisms and the root cause of state transitions from the perspective of data mining. These findings suggest that the transfer learning strategies proposed in our work are capable of acquiring knowledge across multiple data sources for solving specialized issues.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS2012

Predictive Sea State Estimation for Automated Ride Control and Handling - PSSEARCH

PSSEARCH provides predictive sea state estimation, coupled with closed-loop feedback control for automated ride control. It enables a manned or unmanned watercraft to determine the 3D map and sea state conditions in its vicinity in real time. Adaptive path-planning/ replanning software and a control surface management system will then use this information to choose the best settings and heading relative to the seas for the watercraft. PSSEARCH looks ahead and anticipates potential impact of waves on the boat and is used in a tight control loop to adjust trim tabs, course, and throttle settings. The software uses sensory inputs including IMU (Inertial Measurement Unit), stereo, radar, etc. to determine the sea state and wave conditions (wave height, frequency, wave direction) in the vicinity of a rapidly moving boat. This information can then be used to plot a safe path through the oncoming waves. The main issues in determining a safe path for sea surface navigation are: (1) deriving a 3D map of the surrounding environment, (2) extracting hazards and sea state surface state from the imaging sensors/map, and (3) planning a path and control surface settings that avoid the hazards, accomplish the mission navigation goals, and mitigate crew injuries from excessive heave, pitch, and roll accelerations while taking into account the dynamics of the sea surface state. The first part is solved using a wide baseline stereo system, where 3D structure is determined from two calibrated pairs of visual imagers. Once the 3D map is derived, anything above the sea surface is classified as a potential hazard and a surface analysis gives a static snapshot of the waves. Dynamics of the wave features are obtained from a frequency analysis of motion vectors derived from the orientation of the waves during a sequence of inputs. Fusion of the dynamic wave patterns with the 3D maps and the IMU outputs is used for efficient safe path planning.

Huntsberger, Terrance L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Satellite Based Precipitation Estimation in Orographic Regions within the Southwestern United States

Predicting precipitation-induced landslides requires accurate estimation of orographic precipitation. Many research studies have been done to estimate orographic precipitation using measurement/estimation methods that include rain gauges, ground-based radar, satellite-based estimates, and modeling. Each method has strengths and weaknesses, but none have been able to fully resolve orographic precipitation. The Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (IMERG) early run product provides precipitation estimates at a 0.1° spatial resolution, at half-hour time scales, with only a 4-hour latency. This product is currently used for the global landslide hazard assessment, but there are known issues in mountainous terrain that the IMERG algorithm has not been able to fully resolve; and the sparse gauge density in these regions makes it even more difficult. In this study, precipitation events were identified using high temporal resolution (5-15 minute) precipitation observations from rain gauges in mountainous terrain in the southwestern United States. The brightness temperature from several infrared (IR) bands from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) 16 satellite were used to estimate precipitation with a k-nearest neighbor machine learning model. Compared to IMERG, the IR estimates from GOES-16 performed better at predicting gauge-identified precipitation events. Additionally, the IR-only based estimates were able to estimate precipitation when IMERG failed to detect precipitation, false negative events. While additional analysis is needed, results indicate the need for better integration of IR observations for more accurate precipitation estimation in mountainous regions.

Jessica Sutton↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Vegetation Assimilation on Flash Drought Characteristics across the Continental United States

Predicting and managing the impacts of flash droughts is difficult owing to their rapid onset and intensification. Flash drought monitoring often relies on assessing changes in root-zone soil moisture. However, the lack of widespread soil moisture measurements means that flash drought assessments often use process-based model data like that from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Such reliance opens flash drought assessment to model biases, particularly from vegetation processes. Here, we examine the influence of vegetation on NLDAS-simulated flash drought characteristics by comparing two experiments covering 1981–2017: open loop (OL), which uses NLDAS surface meteorological forcing to drive a land surface model using prognostic vegetation, and data assimilation (DA), which instead assimilates near-real-time satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI) into the land surface model. The OL simulation consistently underestimates LAI across the United States, causing relatively high soil moisture values. Both experiments produce similar geographic patterns of flash droughts, but OL produces shorter duration events and regional trends in flash drought occurrence that are sometimes opposite to those in DA. Across the Midwest and Southern United States, flash droughts are 4 weeks (about 70%) longer on average in DA than OL. Moreover, across much of the Great Plains, flash drought occurrence has trended upward according to the DA experiment, opposite to the trend in OL. This sensitivity of flash drought to the representation of vegetation suggests that representing plants with greater fidelity could aid in monitoring flash droughts and improve the prediction of flash drought transitions to more persistent and damaging long-term droughts.

Drought↗