Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “state prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A graph neural network-state predictive information bottleneck (GNN-SPIB) approach for learning molecular thermodynamics and kinetics

Molecular dynamics simulations offer detailed insights into atomic motions but face timescale limitations. Enhanced sampling methods have addressed these challenges but even with machine learning, they often rely on pre-selected expert-based features. Here, in this work, we present a Graph Neural Network-State Predictive Information Bottleneck (GNN-SPIB) framework, which combines graph neural networks and the state predictive information bottleneck to automatically learn low-dimensional representations directly from atomic coordinates. Tested on three benchmark systems, our approach predicts essential structural, thermodynamic and kinetic information for slow processes, demonstrating robustness across diverse systems. The method shows promise for complex systems, enabling effective enhanced sampling without requiring pre-defined reaction coordinates or input features.

Zou, Ziyue↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulating Crystallization in a Colloidal System Using State Predictive Information Bottleneck Based Enhanced Sampling

Here, we investigate crystal nucleation in supersaturated colloid suspensions using enhanced molecular dynamics simulations augmented with machine learning techniques. The simulations reveal that crystallization in the model colloidal system studied here, with particles interacting through a repulsive screened Coulomb Yukawa potential, proceeds from vapor to dense liquid droplet to crystalline phases across multiple high barriers. Employing a one-dimensional reaction coordinate derived from the State Predictive Information Bottleneck framework, our simulations capture back-and-forth phase transitions across multiple barriers effectively in biased metadynamics simulations. We obtain relative free energy differences between different phases and also quantify the roles of different molecular level features in driving the phase changes.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Meta2DB: Curated Shotgun Metagenomic Feature Sets and Metadata for Health State Prediction

Meta2DB is a curated metagenomic and metadata database that provides structurally consistent microbiome taxonomy feature count tables for 13 897 samples across 84 studies, 23 disease states, and 34 geographical locations. All samples were uniformly processed using a streamlined metagenomic classification pipeline that employs a unique and comprehensive reference database indexed to contain all sequences across all kingdoms of life that were present in the NCBI Nucleotide (nt) database retrieved on 4 January 2023. This pipeline leverages high-performance computing (HPC) resources at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and was used to process 50TB of publicly available raw metagenomic sequence data. Extensive metadata curation was carried out through a combination of manual curation and automated parsing, producing a consistent inter-study metadata table specifically structured to facilitate training of ML models for prediction of human health.

Kok, C [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LL↗
DOE OSTI2024

Asymptotic-state prediction for fast flavor transformation in neutron star mergers

Neutrino flavor instabilities appear to be omnipresent in dense astrophysical environments, thus presenting a challenge to large-scale simulations of core-collapse supernovae and neutron star mergers (NSMs). Subgrid models offer a path forward, but require an accurate determination of the local outcome of such conversion phenomena. Focusing on “fast” instabilities, related to the existence of a crossing between neutrino and antineutrino angular distributions, we consider a range of analytical mixing schemes, including a new, fully three-dimensional one, and also introduce a new machine learning (ML) model. We compare the accuracy of these models with the results of several thousands of local dynamical calculations of neutrino evolution from the conditions extracted from classical NSM simulations. Our ML model shows good overall performance, but struggles to generalize to conditions from a NSM simulation not used for training. The multidimensional analytic model performs and generalizes even better, while other analytic models (which assume axisymmetric neutrino distributions) do not have reliably high performances, as they notably fail as expected to account for effects resulting from strong anisotropies. As a result, the ML and analytic subgrid models extensively tested here are both promising, with different computational requirements and sources of systematic errors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictive Complexity of Quantum Subsystems

We define predictive states and predictive complexity for quantum systems composed of distinct subsystems. This complexity is a generalization of entanglement entropy. It is inspired by the statistical or forecasting complexity of predictive state analysis of stochastic and complex systems theory but is intrinsically quantum. Predictive states of a subsystem are formed by equivalence classes of state vectors in the exterior Hilbert space that effectively predict the same future behavior of that subsystem for some time. As an illustrative example, we present calculations in the dynamics of an isotropic Heisenberg model spin chain and show that, in comparison to the entanglement entropy, the predictive complexity better signifies dynamically important events, such as magnon collisions. It can also serve as a local order parameter that can distinguish long and short range entanglement.

Asplund, Curtis T. (ORCID:0000000305575850)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating explainable transfer learning for battery lifetime prediction under state transitions

Battery lifetime prediction at early cycles is crucial for researchers and manufacturers to examine product quality and promote technology development. Machine learning has been widely utilized to construct data-driven solutions for high-accuracy predictions. However, the internal mechanisms of batteries are sensitive to many factors, such as charging/discharging protocols, manufacturing/storage conditions, and usage patterns. These factors will induce state transitions, thereby decreasing the prediction accuracy of data-driven approaches. Transfer learning is a promising technique that overcomes this difficulty and achieves accurate predictions by jointly utilizing information from various sources. Hence, we develop two transfer learning methods, Bayesian Model Fusion and Weighted Orthogonal Matching Pursuit, to strategically combine prior knowledge with limited information from the target dataset to achieve superior prediction performance. From our results, our transfer learning methods reduce root-mean-squared error by 41% through adapting to the target domain. Furthermore, the transfer learning strategies identify the variations of impactful features across different sets of batteries and therefore disentangle the battery degradation mechanisms and the root cause of state transitions from the perspective of data mining. These findings suggest that the transfer learning strategies proposed in our work are capable of acquiring knowledge across multiple data sources for solving specialized issues.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Vegetation Assimilation on Flash Drought Characteristics across the Continental United States

Predicting and managing the impacts of flash droughts is difficult owing to their rapid onset and intensification. Flash drought monitoring often relies on assessing changes in root-zone soil moisture. However, the lack of widespread soil moisture measurements means that flash drought assessments often use process-based model data like that from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Such reliance opens flash drought assessment to model biases, particularly from vegetation processes. Here, we examine the influence of vegetation on NLDAS-simulated flash drought characteristics by comparing two experiments covering 1981–2017: open loop (OL), which uses NLDAS surface meteorological forcing to drive a land surface model using prognostic vegetation, and data assimilation (DA), which instead assimilates near-real-time satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI) into the land surface model. The OL simulation consistently underestimates LAI across the United States, causing relatively high soil moisture values. Both experiments produce similar geographic patterns of flash droughts, but OL produces shorter duration events and regional trends in flash drought occurrence that are sometimes opposite to those in DA. Across the Midwest and Southern United States, flash droughts are 4 weeks (about 70%) longer on average in DA than OL. Moreover, across much of the Great Plains, flash drought occurrence has trended upward according to the DA experiment, opposite to the trend in OL. This sensitivity of flash drought to the representation of vegetation suggests that representing plants with greater fidelity could aid in monitoring flash droughts and improve the prediction of flash drought transitions to more persistent and damaging long-term droughts.

Drought↗
DOE OSTI2024

A novel conditional generative model for efficient ensemble forecasts of state variables in large-scale geological carbon storage

Integrating monitoring data to efficiently update reservoir pressure and CO 2 plume distribution forecasts presents a significant challenge in geological carbon storage (GCS) applications. Inverse modeling techniques are commonly used to fuse observational data and refine reservoir model parameters, thereby improving state variable forecasts. However, these techniques often rely on linear or Gaussian assumptions, which can limit their effectiveness in accurately predicting state variables. Moreover, simulating large-scale three-dimensional (3D) GCS problems is computationally expensive, making iterative runs in inverse problems prohibitive. To address these challenges, we propose a conditional generative model utilizing the score-based diffusion method for real-time 3D pressure and saturation field distribution predictions. Our approach involves solving the score function with a mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to generate labeled data. This data is subsequently employed to train a fully connected neural network, enabling it to learn the conditional sample generator within a supervised learning framework. This method enables the rapid generation of a large ensemble of predictions, facilitating comprehensive uncertainty quantification of state variables. Here we applied our method to forecast the dynamic 3D distributions of pressure and saturation fields over a 30-year injection period. The statistical assessment with low root mean square error (RMSE) values demonstrates that our method can accurately predict the spatiotemporal distributions of both pressure and saturation fields. Moreover, the developed conditional generative model shows high computational efficiency by generating 100 ensemble forecasts of 3D state variables in less than 10 min. The consistency between ensemble averages and ground truth values further illustrates the model’s capability to capture state variable dynamics during the CO 2 plume injection process. Notably, the ground truth values fall within the ensemble forecasts, indicating that our uncertainty quantification effectively captures variability and potential noise in the observations. Thus, the developed conditional generative model proves to be a more efficient, accurate, and practical tool for GCS applications, facilitating timely risk analysis and informed decision-making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-spin states in 60 Cu and implications for states in the mirror nucleus 60 Ga

High-spin states in 60 Cu are investigated on the basis of reaction-channel-selected 𝛾-ray spectroscopy. Data stem from three experiments that used the same fusion-evaporation reaction at similar beam energies. The Gammasphere 𝛾-ray spectrometer was combined with the Microball CsI(Tl) detector array and sets of liquid-scintillator neutron detectors which allowed us to identify and tag on evaporated light charged particles and neutrons, respectively. A level scheme is proposed which comprises more than 300 𝛾-ray transitions connecting more than 100 excited states. Predictions from cranked Nilsson-Strutinsky calculations describe the observed high-spin collective structures in 60 Cu. Predictions of shell-model calculations are probed with a suite of low- to medium-spin states of both parities. Taking into account isospin-symmetry-breaking terms in these calculations, a case study of the yrast line of the weakly bound mirror nucleus 60 Ga is presented.

Rudolph, Dirk [Lund University (Sweden)] (ORCID:00↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating Particle Phase State Dependencies during a Historic Pacific Northwest Wildfire Event

The function and lifetime of an atmospheric particle are greatly dependent upon its phase state. Studying particle phase states from specific ambient source types is often challenging due to uncontrolled environmental conditions and multiple source contributions. However, a historic Pacific Northwest wildfire event occurred in September 2020, providing a rare opportunity to study a pseudo-single particle type ambient sample (i.e., wildfire) over time. Sampling was performed in Richland, Washington, capturing aged particles from shifting wildfire sources. In addition to source variability, temporal variation in wildfire particle phase state was observed from single particle analyses. Despite this, single particle elemental compositions were homogenous over time (=87% carbonaceous) with no significant temporal variation in organic functional group abundances within individual particles either (e.g., 4% relative standard deviation in alkene contributions). While particle composition is indeed known to affect phase state, water uptake appeared to be the most significant contributor to phase state variability amongst single particles here, as particle aspect ratios (related to phase state) linearly correlated with ambient relative humidity during sampling (R2 = 0.65). Therefore, while limited to a case study, meteorological considerations are found to convey greater comparative importance than particle composition for aged particle phase state predictions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of $t\overline{t}$ production in association with additional b -jets in the eμ final state in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents measurements of top-antitop quark pair ($t\overline{t}$) production in association with additional b-jets. The analysis utilises 140 fb -1 of proton–proton collision data collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. Fiducial cross-sections are extracted in a final state featuring one electron and one muon, with at least three or four b-jets. Results are presented at the particle level for both integrated cross-sections and normalised differential cross-sections, as functions of global event properties, jet kinematics, and b-jet pair properties. Observable quantities characterising b-jets originating from the top quark decay and additional b-jets are also measured at the particle level, after correcting for detector effects. The measured integrated fiducial cross sections are consistent with $t\overline{t}$$b\overline{b}$ predictions from various next-to-leading-order matrix element calculations matched to a parton shower within the uncertainties of the predictions. State of-the-art theoretical predictions are compared with the differential measurements; none of them simultaneously describes all observables. Differences between any two predictions are smaller than the measurement uncertainties for most observables.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of a Discrepancy Checker for the Digital Twin in a Supervisory Control System for a Thermal Energy Delivery System

Defined as a virtual representation of a physical object, process, or service, and used to support real-world decision-making, a digital twin (DT) can be utilized to combine classical and novel frameworks in sensors, state predictions, and multi-input/multi-output systems, and to enable optimal autonomous operations. However, a DT’s usefulness largely depends on its ability to adequately mirror the state of its physical counterpart, and this adequacy should be reflected by the level of uncertainty in the underlying simulation models when estimating and predicting quantities of interest (QOIs). Moreover, simulation models in a DT may involve multiple fidelities of representations—ranging from physics-based models to data-driven ones—but classical uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods struggle to handle numerous uncertainty sources, nor are they designed for real-time applications. This work presents a UQ-based discrepancy checking and diagnosis tool for a DT-based supervisory control system applied to a thermal energy delivery system (TEDS) at Idaho National Laboratory. The discrepancy checker was developed using metadata from an automated DT development process, and these metadata included different combinations of physical model forms and model parameters, training data and hyperparameters for surrogate models, and design parameters for supervisory control systems. Next, correlations between the uncertainty results and the metadata were established and then applied to the DT operations. The discrepancy checker evaluates the discrepancies between model predictions from virtual and sensor measurements and backtraces them to the corresponding major sources of uncertainty. The discrepancy checker showed reasonable performance in detecting discrepancies and diagnosing sources of uncertainty in testing scenarios.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Coexistence of Spin States in [Fe(tpy-Ph) 2 ] 2+ Complexes on Au(111) Using DFT Calculations

In this work, we systematically study the electronic structure and stability of spin states of the [Fe-(tpy-ph) 2 ] 2+ molecule in both the gas phase and on a Au(111) substrate using density functional theory + U (DFT+ U ) calculations. We find that the stability of the Fe 2+ ion’s spin states predicted by the computations is significantly influenced by the Hubbard U parameter. In the gas phase, the low-spin (LS, S = 0) state is found to be energetically favorable for U (Fe) ≤ 3 eV, whereas the high-spin (HS, S = 2) state is stabilized for U (Fe) > 3 eV. Interaction with the Au(111) substrate is found to elevate the critical U for the spin-state transition to 3.5 eV. Additionally, we perform L-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) calculations for both HS and LS states. The calculated XAS suggests that the HS state more closely aligns with the experimental observations, indicating the potential coexistence of the HS state as the initial state during the X-ray excitation process. These findings enrich our understanding of spin-state dynamics in [Fe(tpy-Ph) 2 ] 2+ .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Anomalous Photoelectron Angular Distributions in the Photoelectron Spectra of Gd 3 O 3 – : Study of Gd 3 O 2 – and Gd 3 O 3 – Using Photoelectron Spectroscopy and Density Functional Theory Calculations

Anion photoelectron (PE) spectra of lanthanide oxide clusters obtained previously have exhibited anomalous photoelectron angular distributions which were attributed to strong PE–valence electron (PEVE) interactions. Here, to further explore this effect, we have obtained the PE spectra of Gd 3 O 2 – and Gd 3 O 3 – , two clusters that have similarly complex electronic structures but contrasting symmetries. The spectra exhibit manifolds of detachment transitions at similar binding energies in a 0.5 eV window of energy. The electron affinity of Gd 3 O 2 is measured to be 1.29 ± 0.05 eV, and that of Gd 3 O 3 is 1.31 ± 0.05 eV. As seen in previous studies on lanthanide oxide cluster anions in lower than conventional oxidation states, transitions in spectra obtained lower photon energies are more congested than those obtained with higher photon energy, a signature of strong PEVE interactions. While the detachment transitions have predominantly parallel photoelectron angular distributions (PAD), the PAD varies across the manifold of transitions in the PE spectrum of Gd 3 O 3 – in a way that suggests four different subgroups of transitions. Results of calculations on Gd 3 O 2 – suggest kite or V-shape structures with antiferromagnetic coupling between one of the 4f 7 subshells with the two others. Calculations on Gd 3 O 3 – more definitively point to ring structures with a nearly isoenergetic ferromagnetically coupled high spin (24-tet) state and a dectet state in which one of the 4f 7 subshells is antiferromagnetically coupled with the other two. Taking these results as qualitative, we propose that strong mixing between the unperturbed states predicted computationally leads to overlapping transitions with different PADs.

anions↗