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Results for “statistical bounds”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Monte Carlo simulations of time-of-flight PET with double-ended readout: calibration, coincidence resolving times and statistical lower bounds

Here, this paper demonstrates through Monte Carlo simulations that a practical positron emission tomograph with (1) deep scintillators for efficient detection, (2) double-ended readout for depth-of-interaction information, (3) fixed-level analog triggering, and (4) accurate calibration and timing data corrections can achieve a coincidence resolving time (CRT) that is not far above the statistical lower bound. One Monte Carlo algorithm simulates a calibration procedure that uses data from a positron point source. Annihilation events with an interaction near the entrance surface of one scintillator are selected, and data from the two photodetectors on the other scintillator provide depth-dependent timing corrections. Another Monte Carlo algorithm simulates normal operation using these corrections and determines the CRT. A third Monte Carlo algorithm determines the CRT statistical lower bound by generating a series of random interaction depths, and for each interaction a set of random photoelectron times for each of the two photodetectors. The most likely interaction times are determined by shifting the depth-dependent probability density function to maximize the joint likelihood for all the photoelectron times in each set. Example calculations are tabulated for different numbers of photoelectrons and photodetector time jitters for three 3 × 3 × 30 mm 3 scintillators: Lu 2 SiO 5 :Ce,Ca (LSO), LaBr 3 :Ce, and a hypothetical ultra-fast scintillator. To isolate the factors that depend on the scintillator length and the ability to estimate the DOI, CRT values are tabulated for perfect scintillator-photodetectors. For LSO with 4000 photoelectrons and single photoelectron time jitter of the photodetector J = 0.2 ns (FWHM), the CRT value using the statistically weighted average of corrected trigger times is 0.098 ns FWHM and the statistical lower bound is 0.091 ns FWHM. For LaBr 3 :Ce with 8000 photoelectrons and J = 0.2 ns FWHM, the CRT values are 0.070 and 0.063 ns FWHM, respectively. For the ultra-fast scintillator with 1 ns decay time, 4000 photoelectrons, and J = 0.2 ns FWHM, the CRT values are 0.021 and 0.017 ns FWHM, respectively. Lastly, the examples also show that calibration and correction for depth-dependent variations in pulse height and in annihilation and optical photon transit times are necessary to achieve these CRT values.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Uncertainty Quantification and Comparison of Weld Residual Stress Measurements and Predictions.

In pressurized water reactors, the prevention, detection, and repair of cracks within dissimilar metal welds is essential to ensure proper plant functionality and safety. Weld residual stresses, which are difficult to model and cannot be directly measured, contribute to the formation and growth of cracks due to primary water stress corrosion cracking. Additionally, the uncertainty in weld residual stress measurements and modeling predictions is not well understood, further complicating the prediction of crack evolution. The purpose of this document is to develop methodology to quantify the uncertainty associated with weld residual stress that can be applied to modeling predictions and experimental measurements. Ultimately, the results can be used to assess the current state of uncertainty and to build confidence in both modeling and experimental procedures. The methodology consists of statistically modeling the variation in the weld residual stress profiles using functional data analysis techniques. Uncertainty is quantified using statistical bounds (e.g. confidence and tolerance bounds) constructed with a semi-parametric bootstrap procedure. Such bounds describe the range in which quantities of interest, such as means, are expected to lie as evidenced by the data. The methodology is extended to provide direct comparisons between experimental measurements and modeling predictions by constructing statistical confidence bounds for the average difference between the two quantities. The statistical bounds on the average difference can be used to assess the level of agreement between measurements and predictions. The methodology is applied to experimental measurements of residual stress obtained using two strain relief measurement methods and predictions from seven finite element models developed by different organizations during a round robin study.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2017

High-Density Signal Interface Electromagnetic Radiation Prediction for Electromagnetic Compatibility Evaluation

Radiated power calculation approaches for practical scenarios of incomplete high- density interface characterization information and incomplete incident power information are presented. The suggested approaches build upon a method that characterizes power losses through the definition of power loss constant matrices. Potential radiated power estimates include using total power loss information, partial radiated power loss information, worst case analysis, and statistical bounding analysis. A method is also proposed to calculate radiated power when incident power information is not fully known for non-periodic signals at the interface. Incident data signals are modeled from a two-state Markov chain where bit state probabilities are derived. The total spectrum for windowed signals is postulated as the superposition of spectra from individual pulses in a data sequence. Statistical bounding methods are proposed as a basis for the radiated power calculation due to the statistical calculation complexity to find a radiated power probability density function.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Positivity from Cosmological Correlators

Abstract Effective field theories in flat space and in anti-de Sitter space are constrained by causality and unitarity, often in the form of positivity bounds. Similar bounds have been harder to demonstrate in cosmological backgrounds, where the roles of unitarity and causality are more obscure. Fortunately, the expansion of the universe ensures that late-time cosmological correlators are effectively classical and the role of unitarity is played by classical statistical inequalities. For multi-field inflation, the resulting positivity constraints have long been known in terms of the Suyama-Yamaguchi inequality. In this paper, we demonstrate that similar statistical bounds imply nontrivial constraints for massive fields in the early universe. We show that any real anomalous dimensions for principal series fields in de Sitter space must be positive. We also derive a limit on the amplitude of particular oscillatory signals from inflation, including those arising in cosmological collider physics. Finally, we demonstrate that these constraints manifest themselves directly in the two-point statistics of matter and galaxies that will be measured in upcoming surveys.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved Statistics for F-theory Standard Models

Much of the analysis of F-theory-based Standard Models boils down to computing cohomologies of line bundles on matter curves. By varying parameters one can degenerate such matter curves to singular ones, typically with many nodes, where the computation is combinatorial and straightforward. The question remains to relate the (a priori possibly smaller) value on the original curve to the singular one. In this work, we introduce some elementary techniques (pruning trees and removing interior edges) for simplifying the resulting nodal curves to a small collection of terminal ones that can be handled directly. When applied to the QSMs, these techniques yield optimal results in the sense that obtaining more precise answers would require currently unavailable information about the QSM geometries. This provides us with an opportunity to enhance the statistical bounds established in earlier research regarding the absence of vector-like exotics on the quark-doublet curve.

Bies, Martin↗
DOE OSTI2020

LANL studies of ESD spark energy discharge through September 2019

Two concentric-sphere apparatuses were used to measure the energies deposited by electric sparks through air to calibrated loads. Both sets of spheres had clean, uninsulated metal surfaces. The 127-mm diameter pair of spheres had a gap of 10 mm and a capacitance of 52 pF. The maximum energy stored on these spheres was 12 mJ and the maximum energy delivered to the 50-mΩ load was 11 µJ, with or without inductance. This load energy amounted to 0.09% of the available input energy; the remainder of the input energy was expended in forming the spark. The second set of spheres was 330 mm in diameter with a gap of 14 mm and a capacitance of 240 pF. The maximum energy stored on these spheres was 71 mJ and the maximum energy delivered to the 50-mΩ load was 150 µJ without added inductance. This load energy was 0.27% of the input energy; again, the remainder of the input energy was expended in forming the spark. The inclusion of 250 nH and 500 nH inductances in the discharge path of the smaller spheres caused the current discharges to resonate, but had little effect on the maximum energies deposited in the loads. At the time of writing, inductances had not yet been added to the larger spheres. The magnitudes of the observed spark discharges were stochastic, so more than 1200 tests were required to develop the statistical bounds of the spark behavior, i.e., to estimate the worst case (highest likely) energy depositions in the loads. The action integrals of the current discharges $∫ i^2dt$ were found to be approximately independent of the load resistances for loads of less than ~1 Ω. Hence the energy deposition scaled with resistance as 207 µJ/Ω and 2.93 mJ/Ω for the two apparatuses.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Multistage Stochastic Transmission Expansion Algorithm for Wide-Area Planning under Uncertainty

The overall objective for this project was to develop and demonstrate a set of methods for solving the transmission investment problem for a large network considering many possible scenarios of future conditions and multiple decision points when investments can be made. Project sub-objectives achieved this goal through a succession of extending the methods to apply to problems with increasing complexity or additional features, including the number of decision points, whether generation and transmission are co-optimized, and whether AC or DC power flow is used. A transmission model was developed for the Western Electric Coordinating Council (WECC) region, the high-voltage transmission system that serves the western third of the continental U.S. Using a dataset provided by WECC and by researchers from John Hopkins University, we have validated and demonstrated the model and used it to compare the new method for solving multi-stage stochastic transmission planning to several state-of-the-art techniques. The project has resulted in several key outcomes and achievements: The covariance-based method for choosing a small set of hours to represent short-term variability has superior performance in terms of accuracy to existing methods, including K-means clustering and Importance Sampling; The combined partitioning method for long-term uncertainty with the nested clustering approach for choosing representative hours for each long-term group has superior accuracy for equivalent computational effort compared with existing methods; Using the partitioning/clustering method combined with Sample Average Approximation provides both statistical bounds on the quality of the solution and at the same time, a complete investment plan for all contingencies in the full uncertainty set; no existing methods can provide both at the same time; The method is demonstrated to work well for choosing both transmission and generation investments; A variant on the method allows for both scenario selection and simultaneous correction for the error from the DC power flow approximation to provide a tractable method for AC power flow-based transmission planning under uncertainty; The method applied to the WECC case study demonstrates the additional value to the system operator and the consumer of identifying flexible investment options in the near-term decisions. In particular, the case study exhibits significant option value in postponing some transmission additions that appear useful but in some long-term system states create new congestion problems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2015

Monte Carlo calculations of PET coincidence timing: single and double-ended readout

We present Monte Carlo computational methods for estimating the coincidence resolving time (CRT) of scintillator detector pairs in positron emission tomography (PET) and present results for Lu 2 SiO 5 : Ce (LSO), LaBr 3 : Ce, and a hypothetical ultra-fast scintillator with a 1 ns decay time. The calculations were applied to both single-ended and double-ended photodetector readout with constant-fraction triggering. They explicitly include (1) the intrinsic scintillator properties (luminosity, rise time, decay time, and index of refraction), (2) the exponentially distributed depths of interaction, (3) the optical photon transport efficiency, delay, and time dispersion, (4) the photodetector properties (fill factor, quantum efficiency, transit time jitter, and single electron response), and (5) the determination of the constant fraction trigger level that minimizes the CRT. The calculations for single-ended readout include the delayed photons from the opposite reflective surface. The calculations for double-ended readout include (1) the simple average of the two photodetector trigger times, (2) more accurate estimators of the annihilation photon entrance time using the pulse height ratio to estimate the depth of interaction and correct for annihilation photon, optical photon, and trigger delays, and (3) the statistical lower bound for interactions at the center of the crystal. For time-of-flight (TOF) PET we combine stopping power and TOF information in a figure of merit equal to the sensitivity gain relative to whole-body non-TOF PET using LSO. For LSO crystals 3 mm × 3 mm × 30 mm, a decay time of 37 ns, a total photoelectron count of 4000, and a photodetector with 0.2 ns full-width at half-maximum (fwhm) timing jitter, single-ended readout has a CRT of 0.16 ns fwhm and double-ended readout has a CRT of 0.111 ns fwhm. For LaBr 3 : Ce crystals 3 mm × 3 mm × 30 mm, a rise time of 0.2 ns, a decay time of 18 ns, and a total of 7600 photoelectrons the CRT numbers are 0.14 ns and 0.072 ns fwhm, respectively. For a hypothetical ultra-fast scintillator 3 mm × 3 mm × 30 mm, a decay time of 1 ns, and a total of 4000 photoelectrons, the CRT numbers are 0.070 and 0.020 ns fwhm, respectively. Over a range of examples, values for double-ended readout are about 10% larger than the statistical lower bound.

Monte Carlo↗
DOE OSTI2013

A FAST FLARE AND DIRECT REDSHIFT CONSTRAINT IN FAR-ULTRAVIOLET SPECTRA OF THE BLAZAR S5 0716+714

The BL Lacertae object S5 0716+714 is one of the most studied blazars on the sky due to its active variability and brightness in many bands, including very-high-energy gamma rays. We present here two serendipitous results from recent far-ultraviolet spectroscopic observations by the Cosmic Origins Spectrograph onboard the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). First, during the course of our 7.3 hr HST observations, the blazar increased in flux rapidly by {approx}40% (-0.45 mag hr{sup -1}) followed by a slower decline (+0.36 mag hr{sup -1}) to previous FUV flux levels. We model this flare using asymmetric flare templates and constrain the physical size and energetics of the emitting region. Furthermore, the spectral index of the object softens considerably during the course of the flare from {alpha}{sub {nu}} Almost-Equal-To -1.0 to {alpha}{sub {nu}} Almost-Equal-To -1.4. Second, we constrain the source redshift directly using the {approx}30 intervening absorption systems. A system at z = 0.2315 is detected in Ly{alpha}, Ly{beta}, O VI, and N V and defines the lower bound on the source redshift. No absorbers are seen in the remaining spectral coverage (0.2315 < z {sub Ly{alpha}} {approx}< 0.47) and we set a statistical upper bound of z < 0.322 (95% confidence) on the blazar. This is the first direct redshift limit for this object and is consistent with literature estimates of z = 0.31 {+-} 0.08 based on the detection of a host galaxy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Composite anyons on a torus

An adiabatic approach put forward by Greiter and Wilczek interpolates between the integer quantum Hall effects of electrons and composite fermions by varying the statistical flux bound to electrons continuously from zero to an even integer number of flux quanta, such that the intermediate states represent anyons in an external magnetic field with the same “effective” integer filling factor. We consider such anyons on a torus, and construct representative wave functions for their ground as well as excited states. These wave functions involve higher Landau levels in general, but can be explicitly projected into the lowest Landau level for many parameters. We calculate the variational energy gap between the first excited state and ground state and find that it remains open as the statistical phase is varied. Lastly, we obtain from these wave functions, both analytically and numerically, various topological quantities, such as ground-state degeneracy, the Chern number, and the Hall viscosity.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Excited-state uncertainties in lattice-QCD calculations of multi-hadron systems

Excited-state effects lead to hard-to-quantify systematic uncertainties in lattice quantum chromodynamics (LQCD) spectroscopy calculations when computationally accessible imaginary times are smaller than inverse excitation gaps, as often arises for multi-hadron systems with signal-to-noise problems. Lanczos residual bounds address this by providing two-sided constraints on energies that do not require assumptions beyond Hermiticity, but often give very conservative systematic uncertainty estimates. Here, a more-constraining set of gap bounds is introduced for hadron spectroscopy. These bounds provide tighter constraints whose validity requires an explicit assumption about an energy gap. Exactly solvable lattice field theory correlators are used to test the utility of residual and gap bounds at finite and infinite statistics. Two-sided bounds and other analysis methods are then applied to a high-statistics LQCD calculation of nucleon-nucleon scattering at $m_π\sim 800$ MeV. Generalized eigenvalue problem (GEVP) and Lanczos energy estimators are compatible when applied to the same correlator data, but analyses including different interpolating operators show statistically significant inconsistencies. However, two-sided bounds from all operators are consistent. Under the assumption that the number of energy levels below $NΔ$ and $ΔΔ$ thresholds is the same as for non-interacting nucleons, gap bounds are sufficient to constrain nucleon-nucleon scattering amplitudes at phenomenologically relevant precision. Lanczos methods further reveal that energy-eigenstate estimates from previously studied asymmetric correlators have not converged over accessible imaginary times. Nevertheless, data-driven examples demonstrate why assumptions are required to draw conclusions about the natures of two-nucleon ground states at these masses.

Detmold, William [MIT, Cambridge, CTP]↗
DOE OSTI2013

Generating moment matching scenarios using optimization techniques

An optimization based method is proposed to generate moment matching scenarios for numerical integration and its use in stochastic programming. The main advantage of the method is its flexibility: it can generate scenarios matching any prescribed set of moments of the underlying distribution rather than matching all moments up to a certain order, and the distribution can be defined over an arbitrary set. This allows for a reduction in the number of scenarios and allows the scenarios to be better tailored to the problem at hand. The method is based on a semi-infinite linear programming formulation of the problem that is shown to be solvable with polynomial iteration complexity. A practical column generation method is implemented. The column generation subproblems are polynomial optimization problems; however, they need not be solved to optimality. It is found that the columns in the column generation approach can be efficiently generated by random sampling. The number of scenarios generated matches a lower bound of Tchakaloff's. The rate of convergence of the approximation error is established for continuous integrands, and an improved bound is given for smooth integrands. Extensive numerical experiments are presented in which variants of the proposed method are compared to Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo methods on both numerical integration problems and stochastic optimization problems. The benefits of being able to match any prescribed set of moments, rather than all moments up to a certain order, is also demonstrated using optimization problems with 100-dimensional random vectors. Here, empirical results show that the proposed approach outperforms Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo based approaches on the tested problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

MADHAT: Model-Agnostic Dark Halo Analysis Tool

We present the Model-Agnostic Dark Halo Analysis Tool (MADHAT), a numerical tool which implements a Fermi-LAT data-driven, model-independent analysis of gamma-ray emission from dwarf satellite galaxies and dwarf galaxy candidates due to dark matter annihilation, dark matter decay, or other nonstandard or unknown astrophysics. This tool efficiently provides statistical upper bounds on the number of observed photons in excess of the number expected, based on empirical determinations of foregrounds and backgrounds, using a stacked analysis of any selected set of dwarf targets. It also calculates the resulting bounds on the properties of dark matter under any assumptions the user makes regarding dark sector particle physics or astrophysics. As an application, we determine new bounds on Sommerfeld-enhanced dark matter annihilation in a set of eight dwarfs. MADHAT v1.0 includes 58 dwarfs and dwarf candidate targets, and we discuss future planned developments. MADHAT is available and will be maintained at https://github.com/MADHATdm.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cross-scale covariance for material property prediction

A simulation can stand its ground against an experiment only if its prediction uncertainty is known. The unknown accuracy of interatomic potentials (IPs) is a major source of prediction uncertainty, severely limiting the use of large-scale classical atomistic simulations in a wide range of scientific and engineering applications. Here we explore covariance between predictions of metal plasticity, from 178 large-scale (~10 8 atoms) molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, and a variety of indicator properties computed at small-scales (≤10 2 atoms). All simulations use the same 178 IPs. In a manner similar to statistical studies in public health, we analyze correlations of strength with indicators, identify the best predictor properties, and build a cross-scale “strength-on-predictors” regression model. This model is then used to estimate regression error over the statistical pool of IPs. Small-scale predictors found to be highly covariant with strength are computed using expensive quantum-accurate calculations and used to predict flow strength, within the statistical error bounds established in our study.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Sequential geophysical and flow inversion to characterize fracture networks in subsurface systems

Subsurface applications, including geothermal, geological carbon sequestration, and oil and gas, typically involve maximizing either the extraction of energy or the storage of fluids. Fractures form the main pathways for flow in these systems, and locating these fractures is critical for predicting flow. However, fracture characterization is a highly uncertain process, and data from multiple sources, such as flow and geophysical are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We present a nonintrusive, sequential inversion framework for integrating data from geophysical and flow sources to constrain fracture networks in the subsurface. In this framework, we first estimate bounds on the statistics for the fracture orientations using microseismic data. These bounds are estimated through a combination of a focal mechanism (physics-based approach) and clustering analysis (statistical approach) of seismic data. Then, the fracture lengths are constrained using flow data. In conclusion, the efficacy of this inversion is demonstrated through a representative example.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Validating Nuclear Data Uncertainties Obtained from a Statistical Analysis of Experimental Data with the “Physical Uncertainty Bounds” Method

Concerns within the nuclear data community led to substantial increases of Neutron Data Standards (NDS) uncertainties from its previous to the current version. For example, those associated with the NDS reference cross section 239 Pu(n,f) increased from 0.6–1.6% to 1.3–1.7% from 0.1–20 MeV. These cross sections, among others, were adopted, e.g., by ENDF/B-VII.1 (previous NDS) and ENDF/B-VIII.0 (current NDS). There has been a strong desire to be able to validate these increases based on objective criteria given their impact on our understanding of various application uncertainties. Here, the “Physical Uncertainty Bounds” method (PUBs) by Vaughan et al. is applied to validate evaluated uncertainties obtained by a statistical analysis of experimental data. We investigate with PUBs whether ENDF/B-VII.1 or ENDF/B-VIII.0 239 Pu(n,f) cross-section uncertainties are more realistic given the information content used for the actual evaluation. It is shown that the associated conservative (1.5–1.8%) and minimal realistic (1.1–1.3%) uncertainty bounds obtained by PUBs enclose ENDF/B-VIII.0 uncertainties and indicate that ENDF/B-VII.1 uncertainties are underestimated.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

3D optical diagnostics for explosively driven deformation and fragmentation

High-speed, optical imaging diagnostics are presented for three-dimensional (3D) quantification of explosively driven metal fragmentation. At early times after detonation, Digital Image Correlation (DIC) provides non-contact measures of 3D case velocities, strains, and strain rates, while a proposed stereo imaging configuration quantifies in-flight fragment masses and velocities at later times. Experiments are performed using commercially obtained RP-80 detonators from Teledyne RISI, which are shown to create a reproducible fragment field at the benchtop scale. DIC measurements are compared with 3D simulations, which have been ‘leveled’ to match the spatial resolution of DIC. Overall, results demonstrate improved ability to identify predicted quantities-of-interest that fall outside of measurement uncertainty and shot-to-shot variability. Similarly, video measures of fragment trajectories and masses allow rapid experimental repetition and provide correlated fragment size-velocity measurements. Measured and simulated fragment mass distributions are shown to agree within confidence bounds, while some statistically meaningful differences are observed between the measured and predicted conditionally averaged fragment velocities. Together these techniques demonstrate new opportunities to improve future model validation.

42 ENGINEERING↗