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Results for “statistical fault detection”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Toward Statistical Real-Time Power Fault Detection

We propose statistical fault detection methodology based on high-frequency data streams that are becoming available in modern power grids. Our approach can be treated as an online (sequential) change point monitoring methodology. However, due to the mostly unexplored and very nonstandard structure of high-frequency power grid streaming data, substantial new statistical development is required to make this methodology practically applicable. The paper includes development of scalar detectors based on multichannel data streams, determination of data-driven alarm thresholds and investigation of the performance and robustness of the new tools. Due to a reasonably large database of faults, we can calculate frequencies of false and correct fault signals, and recommend implementations that optimize these empirical success rates.

bolted faults↗
DOE OSTI2024

Image-based novel fault detection with deep learning classifiers using hierarchical labels

One important characteristic of modern fault classification systems is the ability to flag the system when faced with previously unseen fault types. This work considers the unknown fault detection capabilities of deep neural network-based fault classifiers. Specifically, we propose a methodology on how, when available, labels regarding the fault taxonomy can be used to increase unknown fault detection performance without sacrificing model performance. To achieve this, we propose to utilize soft label techniques to improve the state-of-the-art deep novel fault detection techniques during the training process and novel hierarchically consistent detection statistics for online novel fault detection. Lastly, we demonstrated increased detection performance on novel fault detection in inspection images from the hot steel rolling process, with results well replicated across multiple scenarios and baseline detection methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Emulation and detection of physical faults and cyber-attacks on building energy systems through real-time hardware-in-the-loop experiments

The increasing use of remote or mobile access, integrated wearable technologies, data exchange, and cloud-based data analytics in modern smart buildings is steering the building industry towards open communication technologies. The increased connectivity and accessibility could lead to more cyber-attacks in smart buildings. On the other hand, physical faults (e.g., HVAC -heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning faults) may have similar adverse impacts as those from the cyber-attacks on building energy systems, such as occupant discomfort, energy wastage, and equipment downtime. However, current physical behavior-based anomaly detection methods fail to differentiate between cyber-attacks and physical faults in building energy systems. Moreover, the challenge in collecting real-world threat data with ground truth has led researchers to rely on numerical models with user-defined assumptions, which may not accurately reflect real-world conditions due to the lack of in-situ experimental datasets. To address these challenges and gaps, this paper presents a flexible hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed for generating cyber-attack and physical fault datasets and demonstrating threat detection algorithms in a real building automation system (BAS) environment. This testbed combines hardware (i.e., real BAS with local HVAC controllers and a physical network) with software (i.e., high-fidelity models to represent behaviors of building envelope and HVAC energy systems), enabling emulations of realistic threats. Five HIL experiments, including one baseline without any threats, two with physical faults, and two with cyber-attacks, were conducted to generate datasets containing detailed network traffic and system states. A joint classification framework, incorporating a network analyzer and a physical HVAC fault detector, was proposed to automatically detect cyber-physical abnormalities on BAS at both the network and the physical HVAC levels. The network analyzer comprises a conditional random fields (CRF) based command validator and a statistics-based detection strategy. The fault detector employs a weather and schedule-based pattern matching and feature-based principal component analysis (WPM-FPCA) method. Evaluation of the classification using four metrics from the multi-class confusion matrix revealed an average accuracy of 90.2%, recall of 89.7%, precision of 88.5% and F1-score of 89.2%. Finally, these results demonstrate that the proposed joint classification framework can effectively differentiate between specific types of cyber-attacks (e.g., device reinitialization attack, network Denial-of-Service attack) and physical faults (e.g., air handling unit operational fault, cooling coil valve stuck) in real time for improved building energy management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Long-Term Statistical Process Monitoring of an Ultrafiltration Water Treatment Process

As water treatment technology has improved, the amount of available process data has substantially increased, making real-time, data-driven fault detection a reality. One shortcoming of the fault detection literature is that methods are usually evaluated by comparing their performance on hand-picked, short-term case studies, which yields no insight into long-term performance. In this work, we first evaluate multiple statistical and machine learning approaches for detrending process data. Then, we evaluate the performance of a PCA-based fault detection approach, applied to the detrended data, to monitor influent water quality, filtrate quality, and membrane fouling of an ultrafiltration membrane system for indirect potable reuse. Based on two short case studies, the adaptive lasso detrending method is selected, and the performance of the multivariate approach is evaluated over more than a year. The method is tested for different sets of three critical tuning parameters, and we find that for long-term, autonomous monitoring to be successful, these parameters should be carefully evaluated. However, in comparison with industry standards of simpler, univariate monitoring or daily pressure decay tests, multivariate monitoring produces substantial benefits in long-term testing.

ammonia↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning–Based Condition Monitoring of a Circulating Water System of a Canadian Nuclear Plant

With the need to maintain long-term reliable energy using nuclear power plants, there is an underlying demand to ensure that the maintenance of plant components and systems is also done in an efficient and cost-effective manner. One way to achieve this is by moving from time-based maintenance to condition-based maintenance. The research presented in this paper focuses on applying statistical and machine-learning-based methods to capture anomalies within data for fault detection to further develop into condition monitoring. This paper focuses on system data for a circulating water system (CWS) of a pressurized heavy-water reactor for detecting anomalies. The different methodologies used for detecting and capturing anomalies in the CWS data are matrix profile, density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN), and support vector machines (SVMs). Matrix profile and DBSCAN are used to distinguish between normal data and anomalous data. This paper presents a hybrid method using DBSCAN and SVM when a portion of the data is used for DBSCAN to generate clusters. This portion of data is then used to train the SVM along with the clusters generated by DBSCAN as output. SVM is then tested on unseen data as a predictive tool, which can work in real time to categorize data points as either normal or anomalous. This paper presents results that show the high accuracies of DBSCAN and SVM in capturing anomalies within the data for a CWS for fault detection. Thus, the maintenance plan would be focused on component condition rather than a time-based schedule by switching to an automated system to identify and predict faults within a CWS.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Intermittent Criticality Multi‐Scale Processes Leading to Large Slip Events on Rough Laboratory Faults

Abstract We discuss data of three laboratory stick‐slip experiments on Westerly Granite samples performed at elevated confining pressure and constant displacement rate on rough fracture surfaces. The experiments produced complex slip patterns including fast and slow ruptures with large and small fault slips, as well as failure events on the fault surface producing acoustic emission bursts without externally‐detectable stress drop. Preparatory processes leading to large slips were tracked with an ensemble of ten seismo‐mechanical and statistical parameters characterizing local and global damage and stress evolution, localization and clustering processes, as well as event interactions. We decompose complex spatio‐temporal trends in the lab‐quake characteristics and identify persistent effects of evolving fault roughness and damage at different length scales, and local stress evolution approaching large events. The observed trends highlight labquake localization processes on different spatial and temporal scales. The preparatory process of large slip events includes smaller events marked by confined bursts of acoustic emission activity that collectively prepare the fault surface for a system‐wide failure by conditioning the large‐scale stress field. Our results are consistent overall with an evolving process of intermittent criticality leading to large failure events, and may contribute to improved forecasting of large natural earthquakes.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

River thorium concentrations can record bedrock fracture processes including some triggered by distant seismic events

Fractures are integral to the hydrology and geochemistry of watersheds, but our understanding of fracture dynamics is very limited because of the challenge of monitoring the subsurface. Here we provide evidence that long-term, high-frequency measurements of the river concentration of the ultra-trace element thorium (Th) can provide a signature of bedrock fracture processes spanning neighboring watersheds in Colorado. River Th concentrations show abrupt (subdaily) excursions and biexponential decay with approximately 1-day and 1-week time constants, concentration patterns that are distinct from all other solutes except beryllium and arsenic. The patterns are uncorrelated with daily precipitation records or seasonal trends in atmospheric deposition. Groundwater Th analyses are consistent with bedrock release and dilution upon mixing with river water. Most Th excursions have no seismic signatures that are detectable 50 km from the site, suggesting the Th concentrations can reveal aseismic fracture or fault events. We find, however, a weak statistical correlation between Th and seismic motion caused by distant earthquakes, possibly the first chemical signature of dynamic earthquake triggering, a phenomenon previously identified only through geophysical methods.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Network Anomaly Detection in Distributed Edge Computing Infrastructure

As networks continue to grow in complexity and scale, detecting anomalies has become increasingly challenging, particularly in diverse and geographically dispersed environments. Traditional approaches often struggle with managing the computational burden associated with analyzing large-scale network traffic to identify anomalies. This paper introduces a distributed edge computing framework that integrates federated learning with Apache Spark and Kubernetes to address these challenges. We hypothesize that our approach, which enables collaborative model training across distributed nodes, significantly enhances the detection accuracy of network anomalies across different network types. We show that by leveraging distributed computing and containerization technologies, our framework not only improves scalability and fault tolerance but also achieves superior detection performance compared to state-of-the-art methods. Extensive experiments on the UNSW-NB15 and ROAD datasets validate the effectiveness of our approach, demonstrating statistically significant improvements in detection accuracy and training efficiency over baseline models, as confirmed by MannWhitney U and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests (p<0.05).

Marfo, William [University of Texas at El Paso,Dep↗
DOE OSTI2026

Temporal Convolutional Network Using Empirical Mode Decomposition to Detect Faults in Grid Connected Systems

Grid-connected power electronic systems require timely and reliable fault detection to prevent equipment damage and reduce downtime. This paper presents a forecasting-based anomaly detection pipeline that decomposes voltage and current measurements into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) using empirical mode decomposition (EMD), then trains a causal temporal convolutional network (TCN) on normal-operation IMF data to predict short-horizon future dynamics. Deviations between forecasts and observations are summarized as reliability-weighted residual scores and thresholded per sensor using robust statistics with temporal persistence constraints to suppress false positives. To reduce runtime, EMD is performed on downsampled signals for detection, while raw-rate EMD is applied only within a short region of interest for high-frequency interpretability near detected events. Results on a simulated grid-connected converter system demonstrate that IMF-domain forecasting improves anomaly separability relative to raw-signal forecasting and provides interpretable evidence of faults across decomposition channels.

Sutton, Elizabeth [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000078885935)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Federated Learning for Efficient Condition Monitoring and Anomaly Detection in Industrial Cyber-Physical Systems

Detecting and localizing anomalies in cyber-physical systems (CPS) has become increasingly challenging as systems grow in complexity, particularly due to varying sensor reliability and node failures in distributed environments. While federated learning (FL) offers a foundation for distributed model training, existing approaches lack mechanisms to handle these CPS-specific challenges. This paper presents an enhanced FL framework that introduces three key innovations: adaptive model aggregation based on sensor reliability, dynamic node selection for resource optimization, and Weibull-based checkpointing for fault tolerance. Our framework enables reliable condition monitoring while addressing the computational and reliability challenges of industrial CPS deployments. Experiments on NASA Bearing and Hydraulic System Datasets demonstrate superior performance over state-of-the-art FL methods, achieving 99.5% AUC-ROC in anomaly detection and maintaining accuracy under node failures. Statistical validation using Mann-Whitney (U) test confirms significant improvements (p < 0.05) in both detection accuracy and computational efficiency across diverse operational scenarios.1

Marfo, William [University of Texas at El Paso,Dep↗
DOE OSTI2025

Testing convolutional neural network based deep learning systems: a statistical metamorphic approach

Machine learning technology spans many areas and today plays a significant role in addressing a wide range of problems in critical domains,i.e., healthcare, autonomous driving, finance, manufacturing, cybersecurity,etc. Metamorphic testing (MT) is considered a simple but very powerful approach in testing such computationally complex systems for which either an oracle is not available or is available but difficult to apply. Conventional metamorphic testing techniques have certain limitations in verifying deep learning-based models (i.e., convolutional neural networks (CNNs)) that have a stochastic nature (because of randomly initializing the network weights) in their training. In this article, we attempt to address this problem by using a statistical metamorphic testing (SMT) technique that does not require software testers to worry about fixing the random seeds (to get deterministic results) to verify the metamorphic relations (MRs). We propose seven MRs combined with different statistical methods to statistically verify whether the program under test adheres to the relation(s) specified in the MR(s). We further use mutation testing techniques to show the usefulness of the proposed approach in the healthcare space and test two CNN-based deep learning models (used for pneumonia detection among patients). The empirical results show that our proposed approach uncovers 85.71% of the implementation faults in the classifiers under test (CUT). Furthermore, we also propose an MRs minimization algorithm for the CUT, thus saving computational costs and organizational testing resources.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Client Selection in Federated Learning: A Network Anomaly Detection Use Case

Federated Learning (FL) has become a ubiquitous approach for training machine learning models on decentralized data, addressing the myriad privacy concerns inherent in traditional centralized methods. However, the efficiency of FL depends on effective client selection and robust privacy preservation mechanisms. Inadequate client selection may lead to suboptimal model performance, while insufficient privacy measures risk exposing sensitive data. This paper proposes a client selection framework for FL that integrates differential privacy and fault tolerance. Our adaptive approach dynamically adjusts the number of selected clients based on model performance and system constraints, ensuring privacy through calibrated noise addition. We evaluate our method on a network anomaly detection use case using the UNSW-NB15 and ROAD datasets. Results show up to a 7% increase in accuracy and a 25% reduction in training time compared to FedL2P. Moreover, we highlight the trade-offs between privacy budgets and model performance, with higher privacy budgets reducing noise and improving accuracy. Our fault tolerance mechanism, while causing a slight performance drop, enhances robustness to client failures. Statistical validation using Mann-Whitney U tests confirms the significance of these improvements (p < 0.05).

Marfo, William [University of Texas at El Paso,Dep↗
DOE OSTI2025

Visual Analytics of Crosstalk in Quantum Hardware

Crosstalk remains a major obstacle to building scalable and fault-tolerant quantum computers. Conventional diagnostic techniques-often based on numerical simulation or statistical modeling-struggle to scale with hardware complexity and offer limited interpretability. In this work, we present a visual analytics framework for diagnosing qubit crosstalk using lightweight, circuit-based models integrated with an interactive user interface. Our approach quantifies correlations between active and idle qubits under parameterized single- and twoqubit operations, enabling detection of both spatial and gateinduced crosstalk. The system incorporates qubit topology and gate performance data to support sector-based exploration and correlation mapping. This tool assists users in identifying correlated error sources, informing qubit placement strategies, and guiding noise-aware circuit design.

Chae, Junghoon [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000206016746)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reliable statistics-based detection and investigation of anomalies in a SMART valve system

Reliable anomaly detection and diagnosis are critical for the safe operation of complex engineered systems. This study presents a unified framework that integrates statistical, model-based, and data-driven techniques for anomaly detection and investigation, demonstrated on SMART valve systems in hybrid energy applications. Four detection methods—mean deviation, seasonal extreme studentized deviate, ARIMA forecasting, and matrix profiling—were implemented and compared. Matrix profiling was particularly effective in revealing subtle deviations and hidden relationships among variables. Anomaly investigation was performed by analyzing variable-level and grouped signal profiles, with system topology incorporated to distinguish primary faults from propagated effects. Grouping signals by type enhanced interpretability, enabling accurate localization of anomalies across multi-dimensional datasets. Experimental results confirmed the framework's capability to consistently detect and isolate anomalies while providing actionable insights into system interdependencies. The proposed methodology offers a robust, interpretable, and scalable solution for condition monitoring, with potential applications in safety-critical domains such as nuclear energy, aerospace, and process industries.

ARIMA models↗
DOE OSTI2023

Small-Magnitude Seismic Swarms in Central Utah (US): Interactions of Regional Tectonics, Local Structures and Hydrothermal Systems

Swarms in Central Utah are situated in the complex transition between the Basin and Range (BR) province and the Colorado Plateau. Transecting transverse structures, volcanic deposits, and hydrothermal systems complicate the extensional BR horst and graben structures and provide a multitude of plausible triggering mechanisms. Revisiting the catalog of the University of Utah Seismograph Stations (1981–2022), we analyze spatio-temporal patterns and characteristic features of seismic sequences. Swarms with alternating seismicity rates, bursts, and longer swarms with persistent moment release exhibit a remarkable diversity in temporal evolution. Swarm durations do not scale with cumulative seismic moment: swarms lasting less than 1 day can have similar cumulative seismic moments as month-long swarms. Here, we observe stationary swarms re-occurring for years (e.g., Mineral Mountains), as well as singular swarms in low-seismicity areas (e.g., activating a local structure). The swarms show a pronounced heterogeneity in triggering and driving mechanisms, observed in the detailed analysis of exemplary sequences (detections, relocations, moment tensors, waveform-based clustering, and repeater analysis). The 2022 Sevier Valley sequence activated a BR-related normal fault, the first resolved fault plane in the valley since 1983. The 2011 Circleville sequence is interpreted as a swarm triggered by mainshock-aftershock activity characterized by increasing magnitudes, changing rupture mechanisms, and a concentration of highly similar events in the second part of the sequence. By jointly discussing exemplary sequences and catalog statistics, we draw a comprehensive picture of swarm activity and its relation to geothermal and tectonic activity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reinforcement Learning for Anomaly Detection in Nuclear Power Plant Operation and Maintenance

In nuclear power plants (NPPs), timely identification of sensor and human errors is critical to ensure safe and efficient plant operations. Anomaly detection models can be employed for this task. However, traditional anomaly detection approaches may have high dependency on labeled datasets and struggle with adaptability in complex, dynamic environments. Reinforcement learning (RL) has demonstrated significant potential in fault diagnosis and anomaly detection; however, its application to anomaly detection in NPPs remains a relatively underexplored research direction. Hence, to address this gap, in this study, we present a novel physics-informed reinforcement learning model, PIRL-AD: Physics-Informed Reinforcement Learning for Anomaly Detection, that integrates domain knowledge from calorimetric equations into the RL framework for enhanced sensor and human error anomaly detection. We evaluate the performance of PIRL-AD against a non-physics informed RL benchmark and a support vector machine (SVM) on data collected from a forced flow loop testbed. Experimental results suggest that PIRL-AD outperforms other baselines on a range of anomalous datasets that include both sensor and human-induced anomalies across key performance metrics, statistically outperforming the RL and SVM benchmarks with respect to geometric mean (respectively, 92.96% vs. 91.06% vs. 83.01%) and F1-score (respectively, 89.23% vs. 86.98% vs. 77.01%). Furthermore, the findings suggest the potential of physics-integrated reinforcement learning models for enhanced anomaly detection performance in NPPs.

Reinforcement learning↗
DOE OSTI2023

En echelon faults reactivated by wastewater disposal near Musreau Lake, Alberta

We use machine-learning and cross-correlation techniques to enhance earthquake detectability by two magnitude units for the earthquake sequence near Musreau Lake, Alberta, which is induced by wastewater disposal. This deep catalogue reveals a series of en echelon ~N–S oriented strike-slip faults that are favourably oriented for reactivation. These faults require only ~0.6 MPa overpressure for triggering to occur. Earthquake activity occurs in bursts, or episodes; episodes restricted to the largest fault tend to have earthquakes starting near the southern end (distant from injectors) and progressing northwards (towards the injectors). While most events are concentrated along these ~N–S oriented faults, we also delineate smaller faults. Together, these findings suggest pore pressure as the triggering mechanism, where a time-dependent increase in pore pressure likely caused these faults to progressively reawaken. Analysis of the ‘next record-breaking event’, a statistical model that forecasts the sequencing of earthquake magnitudes, suggests that the next largest event would be M L ~4.3. The seismically illuminated length of the largest fault indicates potential magnitudes as large as M w 5.3.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Unsupervised anomaly detection in MeV ultrafast electron diffraction

MeV ultrafast electron diffraction (MUED) is a pump-probe technique used to study the dynamic structural evolution of materials. An ultrashort laser pulse triggers structural changes, which are then probed by an ultrashort relativistic electron beam. To overcome low signal-to-noise ratios, diffraction patterns are averaged over thousands of shots. However, shot-to-shot instabilities in the electron beam can distort individual patterns, introducing uncertainty. Improving MUED accuracy requires detecting and removing these anomalous patterns from large datasets. In this work, we developed a fully unsupervised methodology for the detection of anomalous diffraction patterns. Using a convolutional autoencoder, we calculate the reconstruction mean squared error of the diffraction patterns. Based on the statistical analysis of this error, we provide the user an estimation of the probability that the pattern is normal, which also allows a posterior visual inspection of the images that are difficult to classify. This method has been trained with only 100 diffraction patterns and tested on 1521 patterns, resulting in a false positive rate between 0.2% and 0.4%, with a training time of 10 s per image and a test time of about 1 s per image. Here, the proposed methodology can also be applied to other diffraction techniques in which large datasets are collected that include faulty images due to instrumental instabilities.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗