On selecting statistical data analysis techniques for space station applications
Statistical analysis of equipment selection for multipurpose scientific laboratory onboard space stations under economic and time constraints
Odell, P. L.↗
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Curve fitting and modeling with splines using statistical variable selection techniques
The successful application of statistical variable selection techniques to fit splines is demonstrated. Major emphasis is given to knot selection, but order determination is also discussed. Two FORTRAN backward elimination programs, using the B-spline basis, were developed. The program for knot elimination is compared in detail with two other spline-fitting methods and several statistical software packages. An example is also given for the two-variable case using a tensor product basis, with a theoretical discussion of the difficulties of their use.
Smith, P. L.↗
Fitting multidimensional splines using statistical variable selection techniques
This report demonstrates the successful application of statistical variable selection techniques to fit splines. Major emphasis is given to knot selection, but order determination is also discussed. Two FORTRAN backward elimination programs using the B-spline basis were developed, and the one for knot elimination is compared in detail with two other spline-fitting methods and several statistical software packages. An example is also given for the two-variable case using a tensor product basis, with a theoretical discussion of the difficulties of their use.
Smith, P. L.↗
Representative Day Selection Using Statistical Bootstrapping for Accelerating Annual Distribution Simulations
Capturing technical and economic impacts of solar photovoltaics (PV) and other distributed energy resources (DERs) on electric distribution systems can require high-time resolution (e.g. 1 minute), long-duration (e.g. 1 year) simulations. However, such simulations can be computationally prohibitive, particularly when including complex control schemes in quasi-steady-state time series (QSTS) simulation. Various approaches have been used in the literature to down select representative time segments (e.g. days), but typically these are best suited for lower time resolutions or consider only a single data stream (e.g. PV production) for selection. We present a statistical approach that combines stratified sampling and bootstrapping to select representative days while also providing a simple method to reassemble annual results. We describe the approach in the context of a recent study with a utility partner. This approach enables much faster QSTS analysis by simulating only a subset of days, while maintaining accurate annual estimates.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Deconvolving distribution of relaxation times, resistances and inductance from electrochemical impedance spectroscopy via statistical model selection: Exploiting structural-sparsity regularization and data-driven parameter tuning
The distribution of relaxation times (DRT) has drawn increasing attention for interpreting electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS). Deconvolution of DRT from EIS is a challenging ill-posed problem that requires regularization methods. In this work, we formulate DRT reconstruction task as a statistical model selection problem with structural-sparsity penalties. We utilize the Elastic net regularization that simultaneously benefits from Ridge and Lasso regularizations with optimal tuning parameter automatically determined by the information criteria. We benchmark our approach on four synthetic experiments (a ZARC element, ZARC mixtures, a RC circuit and a Fractal element) and two real EIS datasets of a Lithium ion battery and an organic-inorganic halide class of perovskites in oxygen environment at different gas pressures. We demonstrate the superiority of proposed model selection procedure, that is capable of eliminating pseudo peaks and representing asymmetries in DRT as well as precisely estimating resistances. Here, we highlight our approach is robust to reducing and subsampling EIS frequency range, making it a promising tool for timing-resolved, localized and large scale EIS data analysis. For the Lithium ion battery data analysis, we extend the classical DRT model to incorporate the inductive effect and illustrate DRT as a guidance for equivalent circuit modeling to refine impedance reconstruction at low risks of overfitting. Furthermore, the structural-sparsity regularization could be extended for multidimensional and Bayesian EIS data analysis.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Statistical Model Selection for TID Hardness Assurance
Radiation Hardness Assurance (RHA) methodologies against Total Ionizing Dose (TID) degradation impose rigorous statistical treatments for data from a part's Radiation Lot Acceptance Test (RLAT) and/or its historical performance. However, no similar methods exist for using "similarity" data - that is, data for similar parts fabricated in the same process as the part under qualification. This is despite the greater difficulty and potential risk in interpreting of similarity data. In this work, we develop methods to disentangle part-to-part, lot-to-lot and part-type-to-part-type variation. The methods we develop apply not just for qualification decisions, but also for quality control and detection of process changes and other "out-of-family" behavior. We begin by discussing the data used in ·the study and the challenges of developing a statistic providing a meaningful measure of degradation across multiple part types, each with its own performance specifications. We then develop analysis techniques and apply them to the different data sets.
Ladbury, R.↗
Radiative natural supersymmetry emergent from the string landscape
In string theory with flux compactifications, anthropic selection for structure formation from a discretuum of vacuum energy values provides at present our only understanding of the tiny yet positive value of the cosmological constant. We apply similar reasoning to a toy model of the multiverse restricted to vacua with the MSSM as the low energy effective theory. Here, one expects a statistical selection favoring large soft SUSY breaking terms leading to a derived value of the weak scale in each pocket universe (with appropriate electroweak symmetry breaking) which differs from the weak scale as measured in our universe. In contrast, the SUSY preserving μ parameter is selected uniformly on a log scale as is consistent with the distribution of SM fermion masses: this favors smaller values of μ. An anthropic selection of the weak scale to within a factor of a few of our measured value — in order to produce complex nuclei as we know them (atomic principle) — provides statistical predictions for Higgs and sparticle masses in accord with LHC measurements. The statistical selection then more often leads to (radiatively-driven) natural SUSY models over the Standard Model or finely-tuned SUSY models such as mSUGRA/CMSSM, split, mini-split, spread, high scale or PeV SUSY. The predicted Higgs and superparticle spectra might be testable at HL-LHC or ILC via higgsino pair production but is certainly testable at higher energy hadron colliders with $ \sqrt{s}$ ~ 30–100 TeV.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
The evolution of contact prediction: Evidence that contact selection in statistical contact prediction is changing
Over the last few years, the field of protein structure prediction has been transformed by increasingly-accurate contact prediction software. These methods are based on the detection of coevolutionary relationships between residues from multiple sequence alignments. However, despite speculation, there is little evidence of a link between contact prediction and the physico-chemical interactions which drive amino-acid coevolution. Furthermore, existing protocols predict only a fraction of all protein contacts and it is not clear why some contacts are favoured over others. Using a dataset of 863 protein domains, we assessed the physico-chemical interactions of contacts predicted by CCMpred, MetaPSICOV, and DNCON2, as examples of direct coupling analysis, meta-prediction, and deep learning. We considered correctly-predicted contacts and compared their properties against the protein contacts that were not predicted. Predicted contacts tend to form more bonds than non-predicted contacts, which suggests these contacts may be more important than contacts that were not predicted. Comparing the contacts predicted by each method, we found that metaPSICOV and DNCON2 favour accuracy whereas CCMPred detects contacts with more bonds. This suggests that the push for higher accuracy may lead to a loss of physico-chemically important contacts. These results underscore the connection between protein physico-chemistry and the coevolutionary couplings that can be derived from multiple sequence alignments. This relationship is likely to be relevant to protein structure prediction and functional analysis of protein structure and may be key to understanding their utility for different problems in structural biology. We use publicly-available databases. Our code is available for download at http://opig.stats.ox.ac.uk/.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Selection Signatures Underlying Dramatic Male Inflorescence Transformation During Modern Hybrid Maize Breeding
Inflorescence capacity plays a crucial role in reproductive fitness in plants, and in production of hybrid crops. Maize is a monoecious species bearing separate male and female flowers (tassel and ear, respectively). The switch from open-pollinated populations of maize to hybrid-based breeding schemes in the early 20th century was accompanied by a dramatic reduction in tassel size, and the trend has continued with modern breeding over the recent decades. The goal of this study was to identify selection signatures in genes that may underlie this dramatic transformation. Using a population of 942 diverse inbred maize accessions and a nested association mapping population comprising three 200-line biparental populations, we measured 15 tassel morphological characteristics by manual and image-based methods. Genome-wide association studies identified 242 single nucleotide polymorphisms significantly associated with measured traits. We compared 41 unselected lines from the Iowa Stiff Stalk Synthetic (BSSS) population to 21 highly selected lines developed by modern commercial breeding programs, and found that tassel size and weight were reduced significantly. We assayed genetic differences between the two groups using three selection statistics: cross population extended haplotype homozogysity, cross-population composite likelihood ratio, and fixation index. All three statistics show evidence of selection at genomic regions associated with tassel morphology relative to genome-wide null distributions. These results support the tremendous effect, both phenotypic and genotypic, that selection has had on maize male inflorescence morphology.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Statistical-mechanical selection of the shapes of disk galaxies
A new method is proposed for selecting steady state shapes of disk galaxies as 'most probable states' of a large number of stars, given only the total energy and total angular momentum. A partial differential equation is derived for the mean gravitational potential; it is closely related to the 'sinh-Poisson' equation for the mean-field description of a line vortex system or electrostatic guiding-center plasma. A 'water bag' approximation to the distribution function for bound stars renders the equation analytically tractable, but accurate solution of it may require numerical integration, in view of its general nonlinearity.
Montgomery, David↗
Selection of the Argentine indicator region
Determined from available Argentine crop statistics, selection of the Indicator Region was based on the highest wheat, corn, and soybean producing provinces, which were: Buenos Aires, Cordoba, Entre Rios, and Santa Fe. Each province in Argentina was examined for the availability of LANDSAT data; area, yield and production statistics; crop calendars; and other ancillary data. The Argentine Indicator Region is described.
Ramirez, C. J.↗
Molecular dynamics study of carbon dioxide and nitrogen selectivity through poly[bis((methoxyethoxy)ethoxy)phosphazene] (MEEP) membrane
Here, a molecular dynamics simulation model was developed to comprehensively understand carbon dioxide over nitrogen (CO 2 /N 2 ) selectivity through polyphosphazene-based membrane comprising of poly[bis((methoxyethoxy)ethoxy)phosphazene] (MEEP) selective layer at the molecular level. The effects of temperature, pressure, and initial feed gas composition on the CO 2 transport on a polymer membrane were studied. The computed free energy and density profile of the permeating gas mixture exhibited that CO 2 molecules express higher interactions with the membrane than N 2 molecules, resulting in higher CO 2 /N 2 selectivity. Statistical analysis of gas molecules (CO 2 , water (H 2 O), and N 2 ) transportation suggested that hydro- and CO 2 -philic functional groups in the membrane significantly impact CO 2 permeability and CO 2 /N 2 selectivity. This study suggested that Lewis acid–base and hydrogen bonding combinations contribute to CO 2 permeation and CO 2 /N 2 selectivity. An equal CO 2 /N 2 selectivity was observed with and without water vapor in the feed gas suggesting that water does not hinder CO 2 transport through the membrane.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Investigation of statistical techniques to select optimal test levels for spacecraft vibration tests Final report, 1 Nov. 1969 - 31 Oct. 1970
Statistical techniques for selecting optimal test levels for vibration tests of spacecraft hardware
Maurer, J. R.↗
Reactive Dye Adsorption from Aqueous Solution on HPEI-Modified Fe{sub 3}O{sub 4} Nanoparticle as a Superadsorbent: Characterization, Modeling, and Optimization
In this work, the optimum condition for the adsorption of Reactive Blue 19 dye onto Fe{sub 3}O{sub 4} functionalized with hyperbranched polyethylenimine (Fe@HPEI) was determined using response surface methodology. The properties of synthesized magnetic Fe@HPEI nanoparticles were ascertained using FTIR, SEM, TEM, VSM and zeta potential measurement. The experimental adsorption data indicating the positive effect of adsorbent dose and contact time, and the negative effect of pH, initial dye concentration and ionic strength on dye adsorption. At optimal condition; pH 3.4, contact time 25 min, adsorbent dose 0.4 g/L and initial dye concentration 113 mg/L, Fe@HPEI nanoparticles removed dye up to 99.27%. The maximum experimental dye adsorption was near to the predicted value of 100%, which confirmed the reliability of the selected statistical model. The dye adsorption data were fitted well to Langmuir isotherm and pseudo-second-order kinetic, and the maximum adsorption capacity was 500 mg/g. Totally, Fe@HPEI as an effective superadsorbent can be repeatedly utilized for the adsorption of dye from the aqueous environment.
77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
Constraining RV variation using highly reddened Type Ia supernovae from the Pantheon+ sample
ABSTRACT Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are powerful tools for measuring the expansion history of the Universe, but the impact of dust around SNe Ia remains unknown and is a critical systematic uncertainty. One way to improve our empirical description of dust is to analyse highly reddened SNe Ia [E(B − V) > 0.4, roughly equivalent to the fitted SALT2 light-curve parameter c > 0.3]. With the recently released Pantheon+ sample, there are 57 SNe Ia that were removed because of their high colour alone (with colours up to c = 1.61), which can provide enormous leverage on understanding line-of-sight RV. Previous studies have claimed that RV decreases with redder colour, though it is unclear if this is due to limited statistics, selection effects, or an alternative explanation. To test this claim, we fit two separate colour–luminosity relationships, one for the main cosmological sample (c < 0.3) and one for highly reddened (c > 0.3) SNe Ia. We find the change in the colour–luminosity coefficient to be consistent with zero. Additionally, we compare the data to simulations with different colour models, and find that the data prefers a model with a flat dependence of RV on colour over a declining dependence. Finally, our results strongly support that line-of-sight RV to SNe Ia is not a single value, but forms a distribution.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Development of natural environment criteria documents for aerospace vehicle and ground support development.
Design criteria documents for aerospace equipment for functioning under various environmental conditions, discussing environment selection, statistical data use and methods
Daniels, G. E.↗
Elemental composition of suspended particulates as functions of space and time in Cleveland, Ohio
An approach to the analysis of a very large elemental concentration data set. The particular data considered was generated by instrumental neutron activation and emission spectroscopy analyses of over 750 24-hour ambient air particulate samples collected at 16 sites in Cleveland, Ohio, during the 15 months from August 1971 thru October 1972. Examples are presented that show the use of multiple approaches to interpreting the data, including pairwise correlation statistics, selective data plotting and cluster analysis.
Neustadter, H. E.↗
Thermal- and plasma-induced molecular redistribution on the icy satellites
The molecular transport of condensed gas species across the surfaces of the icy satellites of Jupiter and Saturn is examined with the view of describing, in part, certain gross visual features associated with these bodies. Molecular redistribution induced by thermal sublimation and magnetospheric plasma-ion impact on satellites with negligible atmospheres is calculated by assuming that the molecules follow ballistic trajectories and by statistically selecting initial molecular velocities and points of origin. Erosion/deposition profiles so calculated are compared for a variety of satellite sizes and environments in order to understand the relative importance of sublimation and cold corotating plasma-ion- and fast plasma-ion-induced transport. The erosion/deposition profiles are used to discuss the appearance of a polar frost on Ganymede. A balance of magnetospheric-ion implantation and ion-induced molecular redistribution is used to discuss the observation of embedded SO2 and the darkening of the trailing side on Europa. Ion-induced molecular transport may also limit the deposition of SO2 frost in the polar regions of Io and may be a source of heavy particles in the Jovian and Saturnian magnetospheres.
Sieveka, E. M.↗