Cosmology from HSC Y1 weak lensing data with combined higher-order statistics and simulation-based inference
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Novaes, Camila P. (ORCID:0000000258453649)↗
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A Unified Statistical Rain-Attenuation Model for Communication Link Fade Predictions and Optimal Stochastic Fade Control Design Using a Location-Dependent Rain-Statistic Database
A static and dynamic rain-attenuation model is presented which describes the statistics of attenuation on an arbitrarily specified satellite link for any location for which there are long-term rainfall statistics. The model may be used in the design of the optimal stochastic control algorithms to mitigate the effects of attenuation and maintain link reliability. A rain-statistics data base is compiled, which makes it possible to apply the model to any location in the continental U.S. with a resolution of 0-5 degrees in latitude and longitude. The model predictions are compared with experimental observations, showing good agreement.
Manning, Robert M.↗
Some new results on the statistics of radio wave scintillation. I - Empirical evidence for Gaussian statistics
This paper presents an analysis of ionospheric scintillation data which shows that the underlying statistical structure of the signal can be accurately modeled by the additive complex Gaussian perturbation predicted by the Born approximation in conjunction with an application of the central limit theorem. By making use of this fact, it is possible to estimate the in-phase, phase quadrature, and cophased scattered power by curve fitting to measured intensity histograms. By using this procedure, it is found that typically more than 80% of the scattered power is in phase quadrature with the undeviated signal component. Thus, the signal is modeled by a Gaussian, but highly non-Rician process. From simultaneous UHF and VHF data, only a weak dependence of this statistical structure on changes in the Fresnel radius is deduced. The signal variance is found to have a nonquadratic wavelength dependence. It is hypothesized that this latter effect is a subtle manifestation of locally homogeneous irregularity structures, a mathematical model proposed by Kolmogorov (1941) in his early studies of incompressible fluid turbulence.
Rino, C. L.↗
Statistical prediction of dynamic distortion of inlet flow using minimum dynamic measurement. An application to the Melick statistical method and inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction without RMS measurements
The Melick method of inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction by statistical means is outlined. A hypothetic vortex model is used as the basis for the mathematical formulations. The main variables are identified by matching the theoretical total pressure rms ratio with the measured total pressure rms ratio. Data comparisons, using the HiMAT inlet test data set, indicate satisfactory prediction of the dynamic peak distortion for cases with boundary layer control device vortex generators. A method for the dynamic probe selection was developed. Validity of the probe selection criteria is demonstrated by comparing the reduced-probe predictions with the 40-probe predictions. It is indicated that the the number of dynamic probes can be reduced to as few as two and still retain good accuracy.
Schweikhard, W. G.↗
Comparison between reflectivity statistics at heights of 3 and 6 km and rain rate statistics at ground level
An experiment was conducted to study the relations between the empirical distribution functions of reflectivity at specified locations above the surface and the corresponding functions at the surface. A bistatic radar system was used to measure continuously the scattering cross section per unit volume at heights of 3 and 6 km. A frequency of 3.7 GHz was used in the tests. It was found that the distribution functions for reflectivity may significantly change with height at heights below the level of the melting layer.
Crane, R. K.↗
Signal statistics of the radar echoes: Angle-of-arrival statistics, part 2.2A
The Doppler spectra, measured with a vertical antenna beam, are characterized by essentially two different kinds of distributions, one has a very narrow and the other a broad spectral width. The former is accepted as due to reflection whereas the latter is due to scattering. It can happen that both kinds of spectra are observed simultaneously. Superimposed on a fairly broad Gaussian signal spectrum, very narrow signal spikes are evident. Because some spikes occur at different Doppler frequencies, the subreflections have to be assumed to move with different radial velocities. To experimentally verify this reasonable assumption, it is proposed to measure the angle of arrival of the different signal returns. One can here make use of the essential advantage that the spikes can be filtered in frequency (called Doppler sortening or sharpening). By means of the cross spectrum analysis with the interferometer technique (measuring phase differences between spaced antennas), their angle of arrival can be measured. This will allow determination of the distribution of the angles of arrival.
Rottger, J.↗
Anyonic Membranes and Pontryagin Statistics
Anyons, unique to two spatial dimensions, underlie extraordinary phenomena such as the fractional quantum Hall effect, but their generalization to higher dimensions has remained elusive. The topology of Eilenberg-MacLane spaces constrains the loop statistics to be only bosonic or fermionic in any dimension. In this work, we introduce the novel anyonic statistics for membrane excitations in four dimensions. Analogous to the $\mathbb{Z}_N$-particle exhibiting $\mathbb{Z}_{N\times \gcd(2,N)}$ anyonic statistics in two dimensions, we show that the $\mathbb{Z}_N$-membrane possesses $\mathbb{Z}_{N\times \gcd(3,N)}$ anyonic statistics in four dimensions. Given unitary volume operators that create membrane excitations on the boundary, we propose an explicit 56-step unitary sequence that detects the membrane statistics. We further analyze the boundary theory of $(5{+}1)$D 1-form $\mathbb{Z}_N$ symmetry-protected topological phases and demonstrate that their domain walls realize all possible anyonic membrane statistics. We then show that the $\mathbb{Z}_3$ subgroup persists in all higher dimensions. In addition to the standard fermionic $\mathbb{Z}_2$ membrane statistics arising from Stiefel-Whitney classes, membranes also exhibit $\mathbb{Z}_3$ statistics associated with Pontryagin classes. We explicitly verify that the 56-step process detects the nontrivial $\mathbb{Z}_3$ statistics in 5, 6, and 7 spatial dimensions. Furthermore, in 7 and higher dimensions, the statistics of membrane excitations stabilize to $\mathbb{Z}_{2} \times \mathbb{Z}_{3}$, with the $\mathbb{Z}_3$ sector consistently captured by this process.
Abstract algebra↗
Statistical properties of filtered pseudorandom digital sequences formed from the sum of maximum-length sequences
The statistics of filtered pseudorandom digital sequences called hybrid-sum sequences, formed from the modulo-two sum of several maximum-length sequences, are analyzed. The results indicate that a relation exists between the statistics of the filtered sequence and the characteristic polynomials of the component maximum length sequences. An analysis procedure is developed for identifying a large group of sequences with good statistical properties for applications requiring the generation of analog pseudorandom noise. By use of the analysis approach, the filtering process is approximated by the convolution of the sequence with a sum of unit step functions. A parameter reflecting the overall statistical properties of filtered pseudorandom sequences is derived. This parameter is called the statistical quality factor. A computer algorithm to calculate the statistical quality factor for the filtered sequences is presented, and the results for two examples of sequence combinations are included. The analysis reveals that the statistics of the signals generated with the hybrid-sum generator are potentially superior to the statistics of signals generated with maximum-length generators. Furthermore, fewer calculations are required to evaluate the statistics of a large group of hybrid-sum generators than are required to evaluate the statistics of the same size group of approximately equivalent maximum-length sequences.
Wallace, G. R.↗
The Statistical Consulting Center for Astronomy (SCCA)
The process by which raw astronomical data acquisition is transformed into scientifically meaningful results and interpretation typically involves many statistical steps. Traditional astronomy limits itself to a narrow range of old and familiar statistical methods: means and standard deviations; least-squares methods like chi(sup 2) minimization; and simple nonparametric procedures such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. These tools are often inadequate for the complex problems and datasets under investigations, and recent years have witnessed an increased usage of maximum-likelihood, survival analysis, multivariate analysis, wavelet and advanced time-series methods. The Statistical Consulting Center for Astronomy (SCCA) assisted astronomers with the use of sophisticated tools, and to match these tools with specific problems. The SCCA operated with two professors of statistics and a professor of astronomy working together. Questions were received by e-mail, and were discussed in detail with the questioner. Summaries of those questions and answers leading to new approaches were posted on the Web (www.state.psu.edu/ mga/SCCA). In addition to serving individual astronomers, the SCCA established a Web site for general use that provides hypertext links to selected on-line public-domain statistical software and services. The StatCodes site (www.astro.psu.edu/statcodes) provides over 200 links in the areas of: Bayesian statistics; censored and truncated data; correlation and regression, density estimation and smoothing, general statistics packages and information; image analysis; interactive Web tools; multivariate analysis; multivariate clustering and classification; nonparametric analysis; software written by astronomers; spatial statistics; statistical distributions; time series analysis; and visualization tools. StatCodes has received a remarkable high and constant hit rate of 250 hits/week (over 10,000/year) since its inception in mid-1997. It is of interest to scientists both within and outside of astronomy. The most popular sections are multivariate techniques, image analysis, and time series analysis. Hundreds of copies of the ASURV, SLOPES and CENS-TAU codes developed by SCCA scientists were also downloaded from the StatCodes site. In addition to formal SCCA duties, SCCA scientists continued a variety of related activities in astrostatistics, including refereeing of statistically oriented papers submitted to the Astrophysical Journal, talks in meetings including Feigelson's talk to science journalists entitled "The reemergence of astrostatistics" at the American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting, and published papers of astrostatistical content.
Akritas, Michael↗
A road map to cosmological parameter analysis with third-order shear statistics: III. Efficient estimation of third-order shear correlation functions and an application to the KiDS-1000 data
Context. Third-order lensing statistics contain a wealth of cosmological information that is not captured by second-order statistics. However, the computational effort it takes to estimate such statistics in forthcoming stage IV surveys is prohibitively expensive. Aims. We derive and validate an efficient estimation procedure for the three-point correlation function (3PCF) of polar fields such as weak lensing shear. We then use our approach to measure the shear 3PCF and the third-order aperture mass statistics on the KiDS-1000 survey. Methods We constructed an efficient estimator for third-order shear statistics that builds on the multipole decomposition of the 3PCF. We then validated our estimator on mock ellipticity catalogs obtained from N -body simulations. Finally, we applied our estimator to the KiDS-1000 data and presented a measurement of the third-order aperture statistics in a tomographic setup. Results. Our estimator provides a speedup of a factor of ∼100–1000 compared to the state-of-the-art estimation procedures. It is also able to provide accurate measurements for squeezed and folded triangle configurations without additional computational effort. We report a significant detection of tomographic third-order aperture mass statistics in the KiDS-1000 data (S/N = 6.69). Conclusions. Our estimator will make it computationally feasible to measure third-order shear statistics in forthcoming stage IV surveys. Furthermore, it can be used to construct empirical covariance matrices for such statistics.
Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
Statistical methods and neural network approaches for classification of data from multiple sources
Statistical methods for classification of data from multiple data sources are investigated and compared to neural network models. A problem with using conventional multivariate statistical approaches for classification of data of multiple types is in general that a multivariate distribution cannot be assumed for the classes in the data sources. Another common problem with statistical classification methods is that the data sources are not equally reliable. This means that the data sources need to be weighted according to their reliability but most statistical classification methods do not have a mechanism for this. This research focuses on statistical methods which can overcome these problems: a method of statistical multisource analysis and consensus theory. Reliability measures for weighting the data sources in these methods are suggested and investigated. Secondly, this research focuses on neural network models. The neural networks are distribution free since no prior knowledge of the statistical distribution of the data is needed. This is an obvious advantage over most statistical classification methods. The neural networks also automatically take care of the problem involving how much weight each data source should have. On the other hand, their training process is iterative and can take a very long time. Methods to speed up the training procedure are introduced and investigated. Experimental results of classification using both neural network models and statistical methods are given, and the approaches are compared based on these results.
Benediktsson, Jon Atli↗
Compilation and Analysis of 20 and 30 GHz Rain Fade Events at the ACTS NASA Ground Station: Statistics and Model Assessment
The purpose of the propagation studies within the ACTS Project Office is to acquire 20 and 30 GHz rain fade statistics using the ACTS beacon links received at the NGS (NASA Ground Station) in Cleveland. Other than the raw, statistically unprocessed rain fade events that occur in real time, relevant rain fade statistics derived from such events are the cumulative rain fade statistics as well as fade duration statistics (beyond given fade thresholds) over monthly and yearly time intervals. Concurrent with the data logging exercise, monthly maximum rainfall levels recorded at the US Weather Service at Hopkins Airport are appended to the database to facilitate comparison of observed fade statistics with those predicted by the ACTS Rain Attenuation Model. Also, the raw fade data will be in a format, complete with documentation, for use by other investigators who require realistic fade event evolution in time for simulation purposes or further analysis for comparisons with other rain fade prediction models, etc. The raw time series data from the 20 and 30 GHz beacon signals is purged of non relevant data intervals where no rain fading has occurred. All other data intervals which contain rain fade events are archived with the accompanying time stamps. The definition of just what constitutes a rain fade event will be discussed later. The archived data serves two purposes. First, all rain fade event data is recombined into a contiguous data series every month and every year; this will represent an uninterrupted record of the actual (i.e., not statistically processed) temporal evolution of rain fade at 20 and 30 GHz at the location of the NGS. The second purpose of the data in such a format is to enable a statistical analysis of prevailing propagation parameters such as cumulative distributions of attenuation on a monthly and yearly basis as well as fade duration probabilities below given fade thresholds, also on a monthly and yearly basis. In addition, various subsidiary statistics such as attenuation rate probabilities are derived. The purged raw rain fade data as well as the results of the analyzed data will be made available for use by parties in the private sector upon their request. The process which will be followed in this dissemination is outlined in this paper.
Manning, Robert M.↗
Using the Bootstrap Method for a Statistical Significance Test of Differences between Summary Histograms
A new method is proposed to compare statistical differences between summary histograms, which are the histograms summed over a large ensemble of individual histograms. It consists of choosing a distance statistic for measuring the difference between summary histograms and using a bootstrap procedure to calculate the statistical significance level. Bootstrapping is an approach to statistical inference that makes few assumptions about the underlying probability distribution that describes the data. Three distance statistics are compared in this study. They are the Euclidean distance, the Jeffries-Matusita distance and the Kuiper distance. The data used in testing the bootstrap method are satellite measurements of cloud systems called cloud objects. Each cloud object is defined as a contiguous region/patch composed of individual footprints or fields of view. A histogram of measured values over footprints is generated for each parameter of each cloud object and then summary histograms are accumulated over all individual histograms in a given cloud-object size category. The results of statistical hypothesis tests using all three distances as test statistics are generally similar, indicating the validity of the proposed method. The Euclidean distance is determined to be most suitable after comparing the statistical tests of several parameters with distinct probability distributions among three cloud-object size categories. Impacts on the statistical significance levels resulting from differences in the total lengths of satellite footprint data between two size categories are also discussed.
Xu, Kuan-Man↗
Further developments in cloud statistics for computer simulations
This study is a part of NASA's continued program to provide global statistics of cloud parameters for computer simulation. The primary emphasis was on the development of the data bank of the global statistical distributions of cloud types and cloud layers and their applications in the simulation of the vertical distributions of in-cloud parameters such as liquid water content. These statistics were compiled from actual surface observations as recorded in Standard WBAN forms. Data for a total of 19 stations were obtained and reduced. These stations were selected to be representative of the 19 primary cloud climatological regions defined in previous studies of cloud statistics. Using the data compiled in this study, a limited study was conducted of the hemogeneity of cloud regions, the latitudinal dependence of cloud-type distributions, the dependence of these statistics on sample size, and other factors in the statistics which are of significance to the problem of simulation. The application of the statistics in cloud simulation was investigated. In particular, the inclusion of the new statistics in an expanded multi-step Monte Carlo simulation scheme is suggested and briefly outlined.
Chang, D. T.↗
On the Determination of Poisson Statistics for Haystack Radar Observations of Orbital Debris
A convenient and powerful method is used to determine if radar detections of orbital debris are observed according to Poisson statistics. This is done by analyzing the time interval between detection events. For Poisson statistics, the probability distribution of the time interval between events is shown to be an exponential distribution. This distribution is a special case of the Erlang distribution that is used in estimating traffic loads on telecommunication networks. Poisson statistics form the basis of many orbital debris models but the statistical basis of these models has not been clearly demonstrated empirically until now. Interestingly, during the fiscal year 2003 observations with the Haystack radar in a fixed staring mode, there are no statistically significant deviations observed from that expected with Poisson statistics, either independent or dependent of altitude or inclination. One would potentially expect some significant clustering of events in time as a result of satellite breakups, but the presence of Poisson statistics indicates that such debris disperse rapidly with respect to Haystack's very narrow radar beam. An exception to Poisson statistics is observed in the months following the intentional breakup of the Fengyun satellite in January 2007.
Stokely, Christopher L.↗
A Statistical Filtering Approach for Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Gravity Data
We describe and analyze a statistical filtering approach for GRACE data that uses a parametrized model for the temporal evolution of the GRACE coefficients. After least-squares adjustment, a statistical test is performed to assess the significance of the estimated parameters. If the test is passed, the parameters are used by the filter in the reconstruction of the field; otherwise they are rejected. The test is performed, and the filter is formed, separately for annual components of the model and the trend. This new approach is distinct from Gaussian smoothing since it uses the data themselves to test for specific components of the time-varying gravity field. The statistical filter appears inherently to remove most of the "stripes" present in the GRACE fields, although destriping the fields prior to filtering seems to help the trend recovery. We demonstrate that the statistical filter produces reasonable maps for the annual components and trend. We furthermore assess the statistical filter for the annual components using ground-based GPS data in South America by assuming that the annual component of the gravity signal is associated only with groundwater storage. The un-destriped, statistically filtered field has a X2 value relative to the GPS data consistent with the best result from smoothing. In the space domain, the statistical filters are qualitatively similar to Gaussian smoothing. Unlike Gaussian smoothing, however, the statistical filter has significant sidelobes, including large negative sidelobes on the north-south axis, potentially revealing information on the errors, and the correlations among the errors, for the GRACE coefficients.
Davis. J. L.↗
Impact of baryonic feedback on HSC-Y1 weak lensing non-Gaussian statistics
Baryonic feedback is a major systematic in weak lensing cosmology. Its most studied effect is the suppression of the lensing power spectrum, a second-order statistic, on small scales. Motivated by the growing interest in statistics beyond the second order, we investigate the effect of baryons on lensing non-Gaussian statistics and the resulting biases in the matter clustering amplitude S 8 = σ 8 Ω m / 0.3 . We focus on the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam Year 1 (HSC-Y1) data which, with its high source number density, closely resembles those expected from the upcoming Euclid and Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time. We study four non-Gaussian statistics of convergence maps—peak counts, minimum counts, the probability distribution function, and the scattering transform coefficients—in addition to the usual power spectrum. We first estimate the biases in S 8 using mock observations built from the IllustrisTNG and BAHAMAS hydrodynamical simulations and theoretical models built from dark-matter-only simulations. We find up to 1 σ bias in S 8 when the smallest scales (2 arcmin) and the highest feedback level are considered. We then analyze the HSC-Y1 data and compare the S 8 obtained for each statistic with different smoothing scales or scale cuts. As we expect that baryons mostly affect the small scales, comparing the results obtained from including and excluding small scales can indicate the level of impact from baryons. With HSC data, we find only minor ( ≤ 0.5 σ ) differences in S 8 for all statistics, even when considering very small scales (2 arcmin). Our results suggest that the effect of baryons is insignificant at the level of HSC-Y1 down to 2 arcmin for all statistics examined here, or it is canceled by other scale-dependent systematics.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Two transitions in complex eigenvalue statistics: Hermiticity and integrability breaking
Open quantum systems have complex energy eigenvalues which are expected to follow non-Hermitian random matrix statistics, when chaotic, or two-dimensional (2d) Poisson statistics, when integrable. We investigate the spectral properties of a many-body quantum spin chain, i.e., the Hermitian Heisenberg model with imaginary disorder. Its rich complex eigenvalue statistics is found to separately break both Hermiticity and integrability at different scales of the disorder strength. With no disorder, the system is integrable and Hermitian, with spectral statistics corresponding to the 1d Poisson point process. At very small disorder, we find a transition from 1d Poisson statistics to an effective D -dimensional Poisson point process, showing Hermiticity breaking. At intermediate disorder, we find integrability breaking, as inferred from the statistics matching that of non-Hermitian complex symmetric random matrices in class AI † . For large disorder, as the spins align, we recover the expected integrability (now in the non-Hermitian setup), indicated by 2d Poisson statistics. These conclusions are based on fitting the spin-chain data of numerically generated nearest- and next-to-nearest-neighbor spacing distributions to an effective 2d Coulomb gas description at inverse temperature β . We confirm that such an effective description of random matrices also applies in classes AI † and AII † up to next-to-nearest-neighbor spacings. Published by the American Physical Society 2025
Akemann, Gernot (ORCID:0000000217104258)↗