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At least 19 records

Time domain probabilistic seismic risk analysis using ground motion prediction equations of Fourier amplitude spectra

Modeling of Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) of seismic motions has gained much attention in engineering seismology. In the past few years, several ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and inter-frequency correlation structure of FAS have been established. Due to many preferable characteristics of FAS, probabilistic seismic hazard/risk analysis is rapidly changing from ergodic, spectrum acceleration Sa(T 0 )-based approach to non-ergodic, site-specific, FAS-based approach. This paper presents time domain intrusive framework for probabilistic seismic risk analysis using GMPE of FAS. Herein, methodology for time domain stochastic ground motion modeling based on GMPEs of FAS is presented in some detail. The simulated uncertain motions are modeled as a random process and represented by polynomial chaos Karhunen-Loève expansion. The random process excitations are further propagated into the uncertain structural system using Galerkin stochastic finite element method (SFEM). Probabilistic evolution of structural response is solved, and such solution is used to develop seismic risk for any damage state. The presented framework is illustrated through seismic risk analysis of a four-story building subjected to possible earthquakes from two strike slip faults. The influences of the epistemic uncertainties in source stress drop Δσ and site attenuation κ0 on seismic risk are investigated. The need for non-ergodic seismic risk analysis with source-specific and site specific characterizations is emphasized.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Galerkin finite element method for time-fractional stochastic diffusion equations

In this paper, Galerkin finite element method for solving the time-fractional stochastic diffusion equations with multiplicative noise is proposed and investigated. The pathwise regularity properties of solutions to the semidiscrete Galerkin approximations are demonstrated and the convergence of optimal rates are derived. And also we construct the fully discrete scheme which is based on the approximations of the Mittag–Leffler function and analyze the error estimates of convergence in L{sub 2}-norm space. Finally, numerical results are conducted to confirm our theoretical findings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A modular methodology for time-domain stochastic seismic wave propagation

Presented here is a modular methodology for time-domain stochastic seismic wave propagation analysis. Presented methodology is designed to analyse uncertain seismic motions as an input, propagating through uncertain material. Traditional approach for uncertain wave propagation relies on models that include deep bedrock, local soil site, and their random process and random field information. Such models can become quite large and computationally intractable. The modular approach proposed herein features two step approach that allows separate consideration of the deep bedrock and local site along with corresponding random field information. In this work, the first step considers an auxiliary stochastic motions problem in the bedrock. Stochastic local site response can then be simulated in a reduced domain within certain depth from the surface. Application of uncertain seismic motions at depth, for local uncertain site response is done using stochastic effective forces developed through the Domain Reduction Method. By using Hermite polynomial chaos expansion to represent the non-Gaussian random field of material parameters and non-stationary random process of seismic motion, the proposed modular methodology is formulated using intrusive stochastic Galerkin approach, as seen in the Stochastic Elastic–Plastic Finite Element Method (SEPFEM). Developed modular methodology is illustrated using a 1-D stochastic seismic wave propagation analysis with three cases, and simulation results are also verified with results from conventional approach.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Low-Rank Multigrid Method for the Stochastic Steady-State Diffusion Problem

We study a multigrid method for solving large linear systems of equations with tensor product structure here. Such systems are obtained from stochastic finite element discretization of stochastic partial differential equations such as the steady-state diffusion problem with random coefficients. When the variance in the problem is not too large, the solution can be well approximated by a low-rank object. In the proposed multigrid algorithm, the matrix iterates are truncated to low rank to reduce memory requirements and computational effort. The technique is proved convergent with an analytic error bound. Numerical experiments show its effectiveness in solving the Galerkin systems compared to the original multigrid solver, especially when the number of degrees of freedom associated with the spatial discretization is large.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Microstructure-Sensitive Uncertainty Quantification for Crystal Plasticity Finite Element Constitutive Models Using Stochastic Collocation Methods

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) plays a major role in verification and validation for computational engineering models and simulations, and establishes trust in the predictive capability of computational models. In the materials science and engineering context, where the process-structure-property-performance linkage is well known to be the only road mapping from manufacturing to engineering performance, numerous integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models have been developed across a wide spectrum of length-scales and time-scales to relieve the burden of resource-intensive experiments. Within the structure-property linkage, crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM) models have been widely used since they are one of a few ICME toolboxes that allows numerical predictions, providing the bridge from microstructure to materials properties and performances. Several constitutive models have been proposed in the last few decades to capture the mechanics and plasticity behavior of materials. While some UQ studies have been performed, the robustness and uncertainty of these constitutive models have not been rigorously established. In this work, we apply a stochastic collocation (SC) method, which is mathematically rigorous and has been widely used in the field of UQ, to quantify the uncertainty of three most commonly used constitutive models in CPFEM, namely phenomenological models (with and without twinning), and dislocation-density-based constitutive models, for three different types of crystal structures, namely face-centered cubic (fcc) copper (Cu), body-centered cubic (bcc) tungsten (W), and hexagonal close packing (hcp) magnesium (Mg). Our numerical results not only quantify the uncertainty of these constitutive models in stress-strain curve, but also analyze the global sensitivity of the underlying constitutive parameters with respect to the initial yield behavior, which may be helpful for robust constitutive model calibration works in the future.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Scalable hierarchical PDE sampler for generating spatially correlated random fields using nonmatching meshes: Scalable hierarchical PDE sampler using nonmatching meshes

This work describes a domain embedding technique between two nonmatching meshes used for generating realizations of spatially correlated random fields with applications to large-scale sampling-based uncertainty quantification. The goal is to apply the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for the quantification of output uncertainties of PDEs with random input coefficients on general and unstructured computational domains. We propose a highly scalable, hierarchical sampling method to generate realizations of a Gaussian random field on a given unstructured mesh by solving a reaction–diffusion PDE with a stochastic right-hand side. The stochastic PDE is discretized using the mixed finite element method on an embedded domain with a structured mesh, and then, the solution is projected onto the unstructured mesh. This work describes implementation details on how to efficiently transfer data from the structured and unstructured meshes at coarse levels, assuming that this can be done efficiently on the finest level. We investigate the efficiency and parallel scalability of the technique for the scalable generation of Gaussian random fields in three dimensions. An application of the MLMC method is presented for quantifying uncertainties of subsurface flow problems. Here, we demonstrate the scalability of the sampling method with nonmatching mesh embedding, coupled with a parallel forward model problem solver, for large-scale 3D MLMC simulations with up to 1.9·109 unknowns.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Eddy Current Probe Parameters Identification Using a Genetic Algorithm and Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation

This study tries to identify the coil parameters using numerical methods. The eddy current testing (ECT) is used for evaluation of a crack with the aid of numerical simulations by utilizing the identification of these parameters. In this study, a comparison of the performance of the GA and SPSA algorithms to identify the parameter values of the coil sensors are presented. So, the optimization probe geometry is introduced in the simulation with Three-dimensional finite element simulations (FLUX finite element code) were conducted to obtain eddy current signals resulting from a crack in a plate made of aluminium. The simulation results are compared with experimental measurements for the defect present in a plate.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An FEM-MLMC algorithm for a moving shutter diffraction in time stochastic model

We consider a moving shutter and non-deterministic generalization of the diffraction in time model introduced by Moshinsky several decades ago to study a class of quantum transients. We first develop a moving-mesh finite element method (FEM) to simulate the determisitic version of the model. We then apply the FEM and multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) algorithm to the stochastic moving-domain model for simulation of approximate statistical moments of the density profile of the stochastic transients.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Low-Rank Solver for the Navier--Stokes Equations with Uncertain Viscosity

In this work, we study an iterative low-rank approximation method for the solution of the steady-state stochastic Navier--Stokes equations with uncertain viscosity. The method is based on linearization schemes using Picard and Newton iterations and stochastic finite element discretizations of the linearized problems. For computing the low-rank approximate solution, we adapt the nonlinear iterations to an inexact and low-rank variant, where the solution of the linear system at each nonlinear step is approximated by a quantity of low rank. This is achieved by using a tensor variant of the GMRES method as a solver for the linear systems. We explore the inexact low-rank nonlinear iteration with a set of benchmark problems, using a model of flow over an obstacle, under various configurations characterizing the statistical features of the uncertain viscosity, and we demonstrate its effectiveness by extensive numerical experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Stochastic multiscale flux basis for Stokes-Darcy flows

Three algorithms are developed for uncertainty quantification in modeling coupled Stokes and Darcy flows. The porous media may consist of multiple regions with different properties. The permeability is modeled as a non-stationary stochastic variable, with its log represented as a sum of local Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansions. The problem is approximated by stochastic collocation on either tensor-product or sparse grids, coupled with a multiscale mortar mixed finite element method for the spatial discretization. A non-overlapping domain decomposition algorithm reduces the global problem to a coarse scale mortar interface problem, which is solved by an iterative solver, for each stochastic realization. In the traditional domain decomposition implementation, each subdomain solves a local Dirichlet or Neumann problem in every interface iteration. To reduce this cost, two additional algorithms based on deterministic or stochastic multiscale flux basis are introduced. The basis consists of the local flux (or velocity trace) responses from each mortar degree of freedom. It is computed for each subdomain independently before the interface iteration begins. The use of the multiscale flux basis avoids the need for subdomain solves on each iteration. The deterministic basis is computed at each stochastic collocation and used only at this realization. The stochastic basis is formed by further looping over all local realizations of a subdomain's KL region before the stochastic collocation begins. It is used over multiple realizations. Numerical tests are presented to illustrate the performance of the three algorithms, with the stochastic multiscale flux basis showing significant savings in computational cost compared to the other two algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Preconditioned Low-Rank Projection Method with a Rank-Reduction Scheme for Stochastic Partial Differential Equations

Herein, we consider the numerical solution of large systems of linear equations obtained from the stochastic Galerkin formulation of stochastic partial differential equations. We propose an iterative algorithm that exploits the Kronecker product structure of the linear systems. The proposed algorithm efficiently approximates the solutions in low-rank tensor format. Using standard Krylov subspace methods for the data in tensor format is computationally prohibitive due to the rapid growth of tensor ranks during the iterations. To keep tensor ranks low over the entire iteration process, we devise a rank-reduction scheme that can be combined with the iterative algorithm. The proposed rank-reduction scheme identifies an important subspace in the stochastic domain and compresses tensors of high rank on-the-fly during the iterations. The proposed reduction scheme is a coarse-grid method in that the important subspace can be identified inexpensively in a coarse spatial grid setting. The efficiency of the present method is displayed by numerical experiments on benchmark problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Few-nucleon matrix elements in pionless effective field theory in a finite volume

Here, pionless effective field theory in a finite volume (FVEFT $\notπ$ ) is investigated as a framework for the analysis of multinucleon spectra and matrix elements calculated in lattice QCD (LQCD). By combining FVEFT π with the stochastic variational method, the spectra of nuclei with atomic number A ∈ {2, 3} are matched to existing finite-volume LQCD calculations at heavier-than-physical quark masses corresponding to a pion mass m $\notπ$ = 806 MeV , thereby enabling infinite-volume binding energies to be determined using infinite-volume variational calculations. Based on the variational wave functions that are constructed in this approach, the finite-volume matrix elements of various local operators are computed in FVEFT $\notπ$ and matched to LQCD calculations of the corresponding QCD operators in the same volume, thereby determining the relevant one- and two-body effective field theory counterterms and enabling an extrapolation of the LQCD matrix elements to infinite volume. As examples, the scalar, tensor, and axial matrix elements are considered, in addition to the magnetic moments and the isovector longitudinal momentum fraction.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Multi-element flow-driven spectral chaos (ME-FSC) method for uncertainty quantification of dynamical systems

The flow-driven spectral chaos (FSC) is a recently developed method for tracking and quantifying uncertainties in the long-time response of stochastic dynamical systems using the spectral approach. The method uses a novel concept called enriched stochastic flow maps as a means to construct an evolving finite-dimensional random function space that is both accurate and computationally efficient in time. In this paper, we present a multi-element version of the FSC method (the ME-FSC method for short) to tackle (mainly) those dynamical systems that are inherently discontinuous over the probability space. In ME-FSC, the random domain is partitioned into several elements, and then the problem is solved separately on each random element using the FSC method. Subsequently, results are aggregated to compute the probability moments of interest using the law of total probability. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the ME-FSC method in dealing with discontinuities and long-time integration of stochastic dynamical systems, four representative numerical examples are presented in this paper, including the Van-der-Pol oscillator problem and the Kraichnan-Orszag three-mode problem. Results show that the ME-FSC method is capable of solving problems that have strong nonlinear dependencies over the probability space, both reliably and at low computational cost.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Accelerating FEM-Based Corrosion Predictions Using Machine Learning

Atmospheric corrosion of metallic parts is a widespread materials degradation phenomena that is challenging to predict given its dependence on many factors (e.g. environmental, physiochemical, and part geometry). For materials with long expected service lives, accurately predicting the degree to which corrosion will degrade part performance is especially difficult due to the stochastic nature of corrosion damage spread across years or decades of service. The Finite Element Method (FEM) is a computational technique capable of providing accurate estimates of corrosion rate by numerically solving complex differential Eqs. characterizing this phenomena. Nevertheless, given the iterative nature of FEM and the computational expense required to solve these complex equations, FEM is ill-equipped for an efficient exploration of the design space to identify factors that accelerate or deter corrosion, despite its accuracy. In this work, a machine learning based surrogate model capable of providing accurate predictions of corrosion with significant computational savings is introduced. Specifically, this work leverages AdaBoosted Decision trees to provide an accurate estimate of corrosion current per width given different values of temperature, water layer thickness, molarity of the solution, and the length of the cathode for a galvanic couple of aluminum and stainless steel.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Multilevel, Hierarchical Sampling Technique for Spatially Correlated Random Fields

In this paper, we propose an alternative method to generate samples of a spatially correlated random field with applications to large-scale problems for forward propagation of uncertainty. A classical approach for generating these samples is the Karhunen--Loève (KL) decomposition. However, the KL expansion requires solving a dense eigenvalue problem and is therefore computationally infeasible for large-scale problems. Sampling methods based on stochastic partial differential equations provide a highly scalable way to sample Gaussian fields, but the resulting parametrization is mesh dependent. We propose a multilevel decomposition of the stochastic field to allow for scalable, hierarchical sampling based on solving a mixed finite element formulation of a stochastic reaction-diffusion equation with a random, white noise source function. Lastly, numerical experiments are presented to demonstrate the scalability of the sampling method as well as numerical results of multilevel Monte Carlo simulations for a subsurface porous media flow application using the proposed sampling method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) for full engineering models by solving probability density function (PDF) equation

This report details a new method for propagating parameter uncertainty (forward uncertainty quantification) in partial differential equations (PDE) based computational mechanics applications. The method provides full-field quantities of interest by solving for the joint probability density function (PDF) equations which are implied by the PDEs with uncertain parameters. Full-field uncertainty quantification enables the design of complex systems where quantities of interest, such as failure points, are not known apriori. The method, motivated by the well-known probability density function (PDF) propagation method of turbulence modeling, uses an ensemble of solutions to provide the joint PDF of desired quantities at every point in the domain. A small subset of the ensemble is computed exactly, and the remainder of the samples are computed with approximation of the driving (dynamics) term of the PDEs based on those exact solutions. Although the proposed method has commonalities with traditional interpolatory stochastic collocation methods applied directly to quantities of interest, it is distinct and exploits the parameter dependence and smoothness of the dynamics term of the governing PDEs. The efficacy of the method is demonstrated by applying it to two target problems: solid mechanics explicit dynamics with uncertain material model parameters, and reacting hypersonic fluid mechanics with uncertain chemical kinetic rate parameters. A minimally invasive implementation of the method for representative codes SPARC (reacting hypersonics) and NimbleSM (finite- element solid mechanics) and associated software details are described. For solid mechanics demonstration problems the method shows order of magnitudes improvement in accuracy over traditional stochastic collocation. For the reacting hypersonics problem, the method is implemented as a streamline integration and results show very good accuracy for the approximate sample solutions of re-entry flow past the Apollo capsule geometry at Mach 30.

42 ENGINEERING↗