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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1977

Optimal spatial sampling techniques for ground truth data in microwave remote sensing of soil moisture

The paper examines optimal sampling techniques for obtaining accurate spatial averages of soil moisture, at various depths and for cell sizes in the range 2.5-40 acres, with a minimum number of samples. Both simple random sampling and stratified sampling procedures are used to reach a set of recommended sample sizes for each depth and for each cell size. Major conclusions from statistical sampling test results are that (1) the number of samples required decreases with increasing depth; (2) when the total number of samples cannot be prespecified or the moisture in only one single layer is of interest, then a simple random sample procedure should be used which is based on the observed mean and SD for data from a single field; (3) when the total number of samples can be prespecified and the objective is to measure the soil moisture profile with depth, then stratified random sampling based on optimal allocation should be used; and (4) decreasing the sensor resolution cell size leads to fairly large decreases in samples sizes with stratified sampling procedures, whereas only a moderate decrease is obtained in simple random sampling procedures.

Rao, R. G. S.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Accuracy assessment, using stratified plurality sampling, of portions of a LANDSAT classification of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Coastal Plain

An application of a classification accuracy assessment procedure is described for a vegetation and land cover map prepared by digital image processing of LANDSAT multispectral scanner data. A statistical sampling procedure called Stratified Plurality Sampling was used to assess the accuracy of portions of a map of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge coastal plain. Results are tabulated as percent correct classification overall as well as per category with associated confidence intervals. Although values of percent correct were disappointingly low for most categories, the study was useful in highlighting sources of classification error and demonstrating shortcomings of the plurality sampling method.

Card, Don H.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Spatial Sampling of Weather Data for Regional Crop Yield Simulations

Field-scale crop models are increasingly applied at spatio-temporal scales that range from regions to the globe and from decades up to 100 years. Sufficiently detailed data to capture the prevailing spatio-temporal heterogeneity in weather, soil, and management conditions as needed by crop models are rarely available. Effective sampling may overcome the problem of missing data but has rarely been investigated. In this study the effect of sampling weather data has been evaluated for simulating yields of winter wheat in a region in Germany over a 30-year period (1982-2011) using 12 process-based crop models. A stratified sampling was applied to compare the effect of different sizes of spatially sampled weather data (10, 30, 50, 100, 500, 1000 and full coverage of 34,078 sampling points) on simulated wheat yields. Stratified sampling was further compared with random sampling. Possible interactions between sample size and crop model were evaluated. The results showed differences in simulated yields among crop models but all models reproduced well the pattern of the stratification. Importantly, the regional mean of simulated yields based on full coverage could already be reproduced by a small sample of 10 points. This was also true for reproducing the temporal variability in simulated yields but more sampling points (about 100) were required to accurately reproduce spatial yield variability. The number of sampling points can be smaller when a stratified sampling is applied as compared to a random sampling. However, differences between crop models were observed including some interaction between the effect of sampling on simulated yields and the model used. We concluded that stratified sampling can considerably reduce the number of required simulations. But, differences between crop models must be considered as the choice for a specific model can have larger effects on simulated yields than the sampling strategy. Assessing the impact of sampling soil and crop management data for regional simulations of crop yields is still needed.

upscaling↗
NASA NTRS2020

Designing an Optimal Ensemble Strategy for GMAO S2S Forecast System

GMAO Sub/Seasonal prediction system (S2S) is being readied for a major upgrade to GEOS-S2S Version 3. An important factor in successful extended range forecast is the definition of an ensemble For initialization of the ensemble we propose a combination of lagged and burst initial conditions. We plan to run a relatively large ensemble of 40 members for sub-seasonal forecast (up to 3 months), at which point we sub-sample the ensemble, and continue the forecast with 10 members (up to 12 months). Here we present the results of the extensive testing of various ways to generate the perturbations to the initial conditions and the validation of the stratified sampling strategy we chose.To generate perturbations for the burst ensemble members we used scaled differences of pairs of analysis states separated by 1-10 days, randomly chosen from a corresponding season. We considered perturbing separately only the atmospheric fields or only the ocean or both of the forecast initial conditions. Considering varying separation times between the analysis states, we were able to produce perturbations sampling various modes of variability. Focusing on the ENSO SST indices, we found that all types of perturbations are important for the ensemble spread.Our ensemble size for sub-seasonal forecasts was determined as to maximize the skill of predicting some of the leading modes of boreal winter atmospheric modes, NAO, PNA and AO. It is not feasible to run equally large ensemble for seasonal forecasts. Using a stratified sampling procedure we can identify the emerging directions of error growth. By comparing the stratified ensemble with randomly sampled ensemble of the same size, we were able to show that the former better estimates the mean of the original large ensemble.

Borovikov, Anna↗
NASA NTRS2020

Designing an Optimal Ensemble Strategy for GMAO S2S Forecast System

The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) prediction system is being readied for a major upgrade. An important factor in successful extended range forecasting is the definition of the ensemble. Our overall strategy is to run a relatively large ensemble of about 40 members up to 3 months (focusing on the sub-seasonal forecast problem), after which we sub-sample the ensemble, and continue the forecast with about 10 members (up to 12 months). Here we present the results of our testing of various ways to generate the initial perturbations and the validation of a stratified sampling approach for choosing the members of the smaller ensemble. For the initialization of the ensemble we propose a combination of lagged and burst initial conditions. To generate perturbations for the burst ensemble members we used scaled differences of pairs of analysis states (chosen randomly from the corresponding season) separated by 1-10 days. We consider perturbing separately the atmosphere and the ocean, or both. By varying the separation times between the analysis states, we are able to produce perturbations that resemble well-known modes of variability. Focusing on the ENSO SST indices, we found that all types of perturbations are important for the ensemble spread with, however, considerable differences in the timing of the impacts on spread for the atmospheric and oceanic perturbations.Our initial (larger) ensemble size was determined so as to maximize the skill of predicting some of the leading modes of boreal winter atmospheric modes (namely the NAO, PNA and AO). Since it is not feasible for us to run with the larger ensemble beyond about 3 months, we employ a stratified sampling procedure that identifies the emerging directions of error growth to subset the ensemble. By comparing the results from the stratified ensemble with that of the randomly sampled ensemble of the same size, we find that the former provides substantially better estimates the mean of the original large ensemble.

Borovikov, Anna↗
NASA NTRS1990

January-february Tropospheric Climate for the Northern Hemisphere and the 11-year Solar Cycle, the QBO and the Southern Oscillation

Examined here is a recently discovered association between the 11-year solar cycle and the atmosphere that is most easily detectable when the two phases of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) are considered individually rather than pooled. The influence of the Southern Oscillation (SO) for either of the two QBO phases is then combined with that of the solar cycle in the form of two-predictor multiple regression. The strong and well-defined relationship between the 11-year 10.7 cm solar flux cycle and the lower troposphere Northern Hemisphere January-February climate for QBO phase-stratified samples (van Loon and Labitzke 1988, Barnston and Livezey 1989) failed for the west QBO phase in 1989. Here, the opposing 1989 event is explained, at least in part, on the basis of the phase of the SO (the cold tropical Pacific SST event of 1988 to 1989). It is demonstrated that both the SO and the solar flux have moderate and quasi-independent correlations with the climate over certain regions, and where there is strong overlap they can work either in harmony or in opposition. In 1989 in North America the influences of the SO and the flux conflicted to an unprecedented extent, and the SO was the controlling influence in most regions of the continent (western Canada being one exception). The 1989 event draws attention to the smallness of the QBO phase-stratified samples and the still more serious holes in the two-dimensional sample space of flux and SO when both factors are viewed as predictors within one QBO phase.

Barnston, Anthony G.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Using known map category marginal frequencies to improve estimates of thematic map accuracy

By means of two simple sampling plans suggested in the accuracy-assessment literature, it is shown how one can use knowledge of map-category relative sizes to improve estimates of various probabilities. The fact that maximum likelihood estimates of cell probabilities for the simple random sampling and map category-stratified sampling were identical has permitted a unified treatment of the contingency-table analysis. A rigorous analysis of the effect of sampling independently within map categories is made possible by results for the stratified case. It is noted that such matters as optimal sample size selection for the achievement of a desired level of precision in various estimators are irrelevant, since the estimators derived are valid irrespective of how sample sizes are chosen.

Card, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Assessment of regional biomass-soil relationships using vegetation indexes

The development of photosynthetic active biomass in different ecological conditions, as indicated by normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVIs) is compared by performing a stratified sampling (based on soil assocations) on data acquired over Indiana. Data from the NOAA-10 AVHRR were collected for the 1987 and 1988 growing seasons. An NDVI transformation was performed using the two optical bands of the sensor (0.58-0.68 microns and 0.72-1.10 microns). The NDVI is related to the amount of active photosynthetic biomass present on the ground. Samples of NDVI values over 45 fields representing eight soil associations throughout Indiana were collected to assess the effect of soil conditions and acquisition date on the spectral response of the vegetation, as shown by the NDVIs. Statistical analysis of results indicate that land-cover types (forest, forest/pasture, and crops), soil texture, and soil water-holding capacity have an important effect on vegetation biomass changes as measured by AVHRR data. Acquisition dates should be selected with condideration of the phenological stages of vegetation. Sampling of AVHRR data over extended areas should be stratified according to physiographic units rather than man-made boundaries. This will provide more homogeneous samples for statistical analysis.

Lozano-Garcia, D. Fabian↗
NASA NTRS1989

Computer-aided boundary delineation of agricultural lands

The National Agricultural Statistics Service of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) presently uses labor-intensive aerial photographic interpretation techniques to divide large geographical areas into manageable-sized units for estimating domestic crop and livestock production. Prototype software, the computer-aided stratification (CAS) system, was developed to automate the procedure, and currently runs on a Sun-based image processing system. With a background display of LANDSAT Thematic Mapper and United States Geological Survey Digital Line Graph data, the operator uses a cursor to delineate agricultural areas, called sampling units, which are assigned to strata of land-use and land-cover types. The resultant stratified sampling units are used as input into subsequent USDA sampling procedures. As a test, three counties in Missouri were chosen for application of the CAS procedures. Subsequent analysis indicates that CAS was five times faster in creating sampling units than the manual techniques were.

Cheng, Thomas D.↗
NASA NTRS2003

On the Exploitation of Sensitivity Derivatives for Improving Sampling Methods

Many application codes, such as finite-element structural analyses and computational fluid dynamics codes, are capable of producing many sensitivity derivatives at a small fraction of the cost of the underlying analysis. This paper describes a simple variance reduction method that exploits such inexpensive sensitivity derivatives to increase the accuracy of sampling methods. Three examples, including a finite-element structural analysis of an aircraft wing, are provided that illustrate an order of magnitude improvement in accuracy for both Monte Carlo and stratified sampling schemes.

Cao, Yanzhao↗
NASA NTRS1973

An evaluation of space acquired data as a tool for management to wildlife habitat in Alaska

The Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife ERTS experiment in Alaska attempts to yield information useful for three primary functions in the State. They are: (1) to test the feasibility of using ERTS data, in conjunction with aircraft acquired multispectral photography, to develop effective stratified sampling techniques, (2) to provide near real time assessment and evaluation of the quantity, quality, and distribution of waterfowl breeding habitat through frequent ERTS measurements of hydrologic, phenological and vegetational parameters, and (3) to provide basic mapping of vegetation and terrain in certain remote areas of the State for which little or no biological data now exist.

Vantries, B. J.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Signature extension methods in crop area estimation

The Procedure B multispectral processing system is both multisegment and multistratum. It uses data from several LACIE-sized segments together and makes a proportion estimate for the entire group of segments as well as for the individual segments. In the clustering of data features, Procedure B produces multiple classes or strata rather than just two strata (as in Procedure 1), and performs stratified sampling on each of these mutliple strata in order to make a proportion estimate. Tests results for the components and for the overall performance of Procedure B are presented, and conclusions that can be drawn from these tests are discussed. The rationale for signature extension for crop area estimation is summarized.

Kauth, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1981

A stochastic-dynamic model for global atmospheric mass field statistics

A model that yields the spatial correlation structure of atmospheric mass field forecast errors was developed. The model is governed by the potential vorticity equation forced by random noise. Expansion in spherical harmonics and correlation function was computed analytically using the expansion coefficients. The finite difference equivalent was solved using a fast Poisson solver and the correlation function was computed using stratified sampling of the individual realization of F(omega) and hence of phi(omega). A higher order equation for gamma was derived and solved directly in finite differences by two successive applications of the fast Poisson solver. The methods were compared for accuracy and efficiency and the third method was chosen as clearly superior. The results agree well with the latitude dependence of observed atmospheric correlation data. The value of the parameter c sub o which gives the best fit to the data is close to the value expected from dynamical considerations.

Ghil, M.↗
NASA NTRS1981

A stochastic-dynamic model for global atmospheric mass-field statistics

Global atmospheric mass field error correlations based on satellite observations and on numerical forecasts show strong and systematic latitude dependence. A model for the latitude dependent spatial correlation structure of mass field forecast errors is derived from dynamical considerations. Three methods of solution were tested. In the first method, the equation was solved by expansion in spherical harmonics, and the correlation function was computed analytically using the expansion coefficients. In the second method, the finite difference equivalent of the equation was solved using a fast poisson solver. The correlation function was computed using stratified sampling of the individual realizations. In the third method, a higher order equation was derived, and solved directly in finite differences by two successive applications of the fast poisson solver. The three methods were compared for accuracy and efficiency, and the third method was chosen as clearly superior.

Ghil, M.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Evaluation of SLAR and thematic mapper MSS data for forest cover mapping using computer-aided analysis techniques

A set of training statistics for the 30 meter resolution simulated thematic mapper MSS data was generated based on land use/land cover classes. In addition to this supervised data set, a nonsupervised multicluster block of training statistics is being defined in order to compare the classification results and evaluate the effect of the different training selection methods on classification performance. Two test data sets, defined using a stratified sampling procedure incorporating a grid system with dimensions of 50 lines by 50 columns, and another set based on an analyst supervised set of test fields were used to evaluate the classifications of the TMS data. The supervised training data set generated training statistics, and a per point Gaussian maximum likelihood classification of the 1979 TMS data was obtained. The August 1980 MSS data was radiometrically adjusted. The SAR data was redigitized and the SAR imagery was qualitatively analyzed.

Hoffer, R. M.↗