Why large earthquakes do not nucleate at shallow depths
Spontaneous rupture models were examined to determine if gradients of average stress-drop and average strength relative to ambient stress account for earthquake nucleation near the base of the seismogenic layer. The frictional strength has been proved to increase with normal stress, which (across a fault) increases with depth in concert with the frictional strength. It is assumed that the large earthquakes occur at a time when the applied stress is equal to the frictional strength. A gradient has been found in frictional strength relative to the ambient stress and the stress-drop with depth. Attention is given to two cases where a circular crack appears, and radiates outward. It is shown that nucleation in the lower part of the seismogenic region will permit growth into a large earthquake, while nucleation in the lower stress-drop regime will encapsulate the crack. It is concluded that only cracks propagating in a high stress-drop regime can move easily into a relatively lower strength region.