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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Context and future directions for integrating forest carbon into sub-national climate mitigation planning in the RGGI region of the U.S.

International frameworks for climate mitigation that build from national actions have been developed under the United National Framework Convention on Climate Change and advanced most recently through the Paris Climate Agreement. In parallel, sub-national actors have set greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction goals and developed corresponding climate mitigation plans. Within the U.S., multi-state coalitions have formed to facilitate coordination of related science and policy. Here, utilizing the forum of the NASA Carbon Monitoring System’s Multi-State Working Group, we collected and reviewed climate mitigation plans for 11 states in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative region of the Eastern U.S. For each state we reviewed the (a) policy framework for climate mitigation, (b) GHG reduction goals, (c) inclusion of forest activities in the state’s climate action plan, (d) existing science used to quantify forest carbon estimates, and (e) stated needs for forest carbon monitoring science. Across the region, we found important differences across all categories. While all states have GHG reduction goals and framework documents, nearly three-quarters of all states do not account for forest carbon when planning GHG reductions; those that do account for forest carbon use a variety of scientific methods with various levels of planning detail and guidance. We suggest that a common, efficient, standardized forest carbon monitoring system would provide important benefits to states and the geographic region as a whole. In addition, such a system would allow for more effective transparency and progress tracking to support state, national, and international efforts to increase ambition and implementation of climate goals.

Rachel L Lamb↗

Evaluation of a Regional Crop Model Implementation for Sub-National Yield Assessments in Kenya

CONTEXT: Cropping system models can be used to both assess regional food security and to monitor and predict agricultural drought. Agriculture in Kenya is extremely important to both the economy and food security of the country. OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated a regional implementation of a widely used crop model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), within a coupled modeling framework, the Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS), over Kenya. The goal of this study was to assess the ability of RHEAS to simulate the annual variability of maize yields at the county level and evaluate the uncertainty inherent in the model and inputs. METHODS: The RHEAS system implements a stochastic ensemble approach to account for field scale variabilities in crop management practices and underlying soil and weather conditions. Satellite-derived datasets were used to evaluate the land surface component of the system and seasonally disaggregated yield for 5 years was used to assess the performance of the cropping system model. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The median correlation between RHEAS and satellite-derived soil moisture and evapotranspiration estimates were 0.78, and 0.51, respectively, indicating that the model is able to capture the key drivers of the hydrological budget. Overall, RHEAS simulated yearly yield variations with a median correlation of 0.7 with reported yields, with the best performance in the short rains season. However, across both seasons, the RHEAS model was positively biased on the order of ~1.6 MT/ha. The overall median unbiased RMSE was 0.66 MT/ha. The RHEAS system shows skill at simulating extreme departures in anomalies, and a majority of the time (62.5%) the reported yields fall within the interquartile range of the simulations. SIGNIFICANCE: One of the most important areas of improvement for the next generation of agricultural data and models is to better understand and communicate the inherent uncertainties. This is especially critical in data-limited regions. Here we present a modeling system and its implementation that begins to address these concerns. We demonstrate the ability to simulate broad trends in yields at the county level for sub-annual yields with skills that commensurate previous national/annual level studies.

Crop model↗

Satellite-based Assessment of Climate Controls on US Burned Area

Climate regulates fire activity through the buildup and drying of fuels and the conditions for fire ignition and spread. Understanding the dynamics of contemporary climate-fire relationships at national and sub-national scales is critical to assess the likelihood of changes in future fire activity and the potential options for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we conducted the first national assessment of climate controls on US fire activity using two satellite-based estimates of monthly burned area (BA), the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED, 1997 2010) and Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS, 1984 2009) BA products. For each US National Climate Assessment (NCA) region, we analyzed the relationships between monthly BA and potential evaporation (PE) derived from reanalysis climate data at 0.5 resolution. US fire activity increased over the past 25 yr, with statistically significant increases in MTBS BA for entire US and the Southeast and Southwest NCA regions. Monthly PE was strongly correlated with US fire activity, yet the climate driver of PE varied regionally. Fire season temperature and shortwave radiation were the primary controls on PE and fire activity in the Alaska, while water deficit (precipitation PE) was strongly correlated with fire activity in the Plains regions and Northwest US. BA and precipitation anomalies were negatively correlated in all regions, although fuel-limited ecosystems in the Southern Plains and Southwest exhibited positive correlations with longer lead times (6 12 months). Fire season PE in creased from the 1980s 2000s, enhancing climate-driven fire risk in the southern and western US where PE-BA correlations were strongest. Spatial and temporal patterns of increasing fire season PE and BA during the 1990s 2000s highlight the potential sensitivity of US fire activity to climate change in coming decades. However, climatefire relationships at the national scale are complex, based on the diversity of fire types, ecosystems, and ignition sources within each NCA region. Changes in the seasonality or magnitude of climate anomalies are therefore unlikely to result in uniform changes in US fire activity.

Morton, D. C.↗

GEDI Launches a New Era of Biomass Inference from Space

Accurate estimation of aboveground forest biomass stocks is required to assess the impacts of land use changes such as deforestation and subsequent regrowth on concentrations of atmospheric CO 2 . The Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) is a lidar mission launched by NASA to the International Space Station in 2018. GEDI was specifically designed to retrieve vegetation structure within a novel, theoretical sampling design that explicitly quantifies biomass and its uncertainty across a variety of spatial scales. In this paper we provide the estimates of pan-tropical and temperate biomass derived from two years of GEDI observations. We present estimates of mean biomass densities at 1 km resolution, as well as estimates aggregated to the national level for every country GEDI observes, and at the sub-national level for the United States. For all estimates we provide the standard error of the mean biomass. These data serve as a baseline for current biomass stocks and their future changes, and the mission’s integrated use of formal statistical inference points the way towards the possibility of a new generation of powerful monitoring tools from space.

Ralph Dubayah↗

Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.

Climate change↗

Spatial and Temporal Uncertainty of Crop Yield Aggregations

The aggregation of simulated gridded crop yields to national or regional scale requires information on temporal and spatial patterns of crop-specific harvested areas. This analysis estimates the uncertainty of simulated gridded yield time series related to the aggregation with four different harvested area data sets. We compare aggregated yield time series from the Global Gridded Crop Model Inter-comparison project for four crop types from 14 models at global, national, and regional scale to determine aggregation-driven differences in mean yields and temporal patterns as measures of uncertainty. The quantity and spatial patterns of harvested areas differ for individual crops among the four datasets applied for the aggregation. Also simulated spatial yield patterns differ among the 14 models. These differences in harvested areas and simulated yield patterns lead to differences in aggregated productivity estimates, both in mean yield and in the temporal dynamics. Among the four investigated crops, wheat yield (17% relative difference) is most affected by the uncertainty introduced by the aggregation at the global scale. The correlation of temporal patterns of global aggregated yield time series can be as low as for soybean (r = 0.28).For the majority of countries, mean relative differences of nationally aggregated yields account for10% or less. The spatial and temporal difference can be substantial higher for individual countries. Of the top-10 crop producers, aggregated national multi-annual mean relative difference of yields can be up to 67% (maize, South Africa), 43% (wheat, Pakistan), 51% (rice, Japan), and 427% (soybean, Bolivia).Correlations of differently aggregated yield time series can be as low as r = 0.56 (maize, India), r = 0.05∗Corresponding (wheat, Russia), r = 0.13 (rice, Vietnam), and r = −0.01 (soybean, Uruguay). The aggregation to sub-national scale in comparison to country scale shows that spatial uncertainties can cancel out in countries with large harvested areas per crop type. We conclude that the aggregation uncertainty can be substantial for crop productivity and production estimations in the context of food security, impact assessment, and model evaluation exercises.

Aggregation uncertainty↗

A City and National Metric measuring Isolation from the Global Market for Food Security Assessment

The World Bank has invested in infrastructure in developing countries for decades. This investment aims to reduce the isolation of markets, reducing both seasonality and variability in food availability and food prices. Here we combine city market price data, global distance to port, and country infrastructure data to create a new Isolation Index for countries and cities around the world. Our index quantifies the isolation of a city from the global market. We demonstrate that an index built at the country level can be applied at a sub-national level to quantify city isolation. In doing so, we offer policy makers with an alternative metric to assess food insecurity. We compare our isolation index with other indices and economic data found in the literature.We show that our Index measures economic isolation regardless of economic stability using correlation and analysis

Brown, Molly E.↗

Land-Use Harmonization Datasets for Global Carbon Budget 2019 and Beyond

Land-use change has been the dominant source of anthropogenic carbon emissions for most of the historical period, and is currently one of the largest and most uncertain components of the global carbon cycle. Advancing the scientific understanding on this topic requires that the best data be used as input to the best models in well-organized scientific assessments. The Land-Use Harmonization dataset (LUH2), previously developed and used as input for CMIP6 simulations, has been updated annually to provide required input to land models in the annual Global Carbon Budget (GCB) assessment. These annual LUH2-GCB updates and extensions have incorporated annual FAO wood harvest data updates for dataset years after 2015 and HYDE gridded agriculture area data updates (based on annual FAO agricultural area data updates) for dataset years after 2012, along with extrapolations to the current year due to a lag of one or more years in the FAO data releases. The resulting updated LUH2-GCB datasets have provided global, annual gridded land-use and land-use change data relating toagricultural expansion, deforestation, wood harvesting, shifting cultivation, regrowth and afforestation, and crop rotationsand pasture managementand are used by both book-keeping models and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) for the GCB. For GCB 2019,a more significant update to LUH2 was produced (LUH2-GCB2019) to correct cropland and grazing area errors in the underlying input datasets for the globally important region of Brazil, as far back as 1950. From 1951-2012 the LUH2-GCB2019 dataset begins to diverge from the LUH2 v2hdataset, with peak differences in Brazil in the year 2000 for grazing land (difference of 100,000 km2) and in the year 2009 for cropland (difference of 77,000 km2), along with significant sub-national reorganization of agricultural land-use patterns within Brazil. These LUH2-GCB2019 corrections for Brazil provide the base for future LUH2-GCB updates including the recent LUH2-GCB2020 dataset, and present a starting point for operationalizing the creation of these datasets toreduce time-lags due to the multiple input dataset and model latencies.

L Chini↗

Sub-Ocean Drilling

The National Science Foundation (NSF) initialized a new phase of exploration last year, a 10 year effort jointly funded by NSF and several major oil companies, known as the Ocean Margin Drilling Program (OMDP). The OMDP requires a ship with capabilities beyond existing drill ships; it must drill in 13,000 feet of water to a depth 20,000 feet below the ocean floor. To meet requirements, NSF is considering the conversion of the government-owned mining ship Glomar Explorer to a deep ocean drilling and coring vessel. Feasibility study performed by Donhaiser Marine, Inc. analyzed the ship's characteristics for suitability and evaluated conversion requirement. DMI utilized COSMIC's Ship Motion and Sea Load Computer program to perform analysis which could not be accomplished by other means. If approved for conversion, Glomar Explorer is expected to begin operations as a drillship in 1984.

Source record↗

Sub-Scale Orion Parachute Test Results from the National Full-Scale Aerodynamics Complex 80- By 120-ft Wind Tunnel

A two-week test campaign was conducted in the National Full-Scale Aerodynamics Complex 80 x 120-ft Wind Tunnel in support of Orion parachute pendulum mitigation activities. The test gathered static aerodynamic data using an instrumented, 3-tether system attached to the parachute vent in combination with an instrumented parachute riser. Dynamic data was also gathered by releasing the tether system and measuring canopy performance using photogrammetry. Several canopy configurations were tested and compared against the current Orion parachute design to understand changes in drag performance and aerodynamic stability. These configurations included canopies with varying levels and locations of geometric porosity as well as sails with increased levels of fullness. In total, 37 runs were completed for a total of 392 data points. Immediately after the end of the testing campaign a down-select decision was made based on preliminary data to support follow-on sub-scale air drop testing. A summary of a more rigorous analysis of the test data is also presented.

Anderson, Brian P.↗

U.S. Government Open Internet Access to Sub-meter Satellite Data

The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) has contracted United States commercial remote sensing companies GeoEye and Digital Globe to provide very high resolution commercial quality satellite imagery to federal/state government agencies and those projects/people who support government interests. Under NextView contract terms, those engaged in official government programs/projects can gain online access to NGA's vast global archive. Additionally, data from vendor's archives of IKONOS-2 (IK-2), OrbView-3 (OB-3), GeoEye-1 (GE-1), QuickBird-1 (QB-1), WorldView-1 (WV-1), and WorldView-2 (WV-2), sensors can also be requested under these agreements. We report here the current extent of this archive, how to gain access, and the applications of these data by Earth science investigators to improve discoverability and community use of these data. Satellite commercial quality imagery (CQI) at very high resolution (< 1 m) (here after referred to as CQI) over the past decade has become an important data source to U.S. federal, state, and local governments for many different purposes. The rapid growth of free global CQI data has been slow to disseminate to NASA Earth Science community and programs such as the Land-Cover Land-Use Change (LCLUC) program which sees potential benefit from unprecedented access. This article evolved from a workshop held on February 23rd, 2012 between representatives from NGA, NASA, and NASA LCLUC Scientists discussion on how to extend this resource to a broader license approved community. Many investigators are unaware of NGA's archive availability or find it difficult to access CQI data from NGA. Results of studies, both quality and breadth, could be improved with CQI data by combining them with other moderate to coarse resolution passive optical Earth observation remote sensing satellites, or with RADAR or LiDAR instruments to better understand Earth system dynamics at the scale of human activities. We provide the evolution of this effort, a guide for qualified user access, and describe current to potential use of these data in earth science.

Neigh, Christopher S. R>↗

Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Monitoring with AMSU-A: Estimation of Maximum Sustained Wind Speeds

The first Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit temperature sounder (AMSU-A) was launched on the NOAA-15 satellite on 13 May 1998. The AMSU-A's higher spatial and radiometric resolutions provide more useful information on the strength of the middle- and upper-tropospheric warm cores associated with tropical cyclones than have previous microwave temperature sounders. The gradient wind relationship suggests that the temperature gradient near the core of tropical cyclones increases nonlinearly with wind speed. The gradient wind equation is recast to include AMSU-A-derived variables, Stepwise regression is used to determine which of these variables is most closely related to maximum sustained winds (V(sub max)). The satellite variables investigated include the radially averaged gradients at two spatial resolutions of AMSU-A channels 1-10 T(sub b) data (delta(sub r)T(sub B)), the squares of these gradients, a channel-15-based scattering index (SI(sub 89)), and area-averaged T(sub B). Calculations of T(sub B) and delta(sub r)T(sub B) from mesoscale model simulations of Andrew reveal the effects of the AMSU spatial sampling on the cyclone warm core presentation. Stepwise regression of 66 AMSU-A terms against National Hurricane Center V(sub max) estimates from the 1998 and 1999 Atlantic hurricane season confirms the existence of a nonlinear relationship between wind speed and radially averaged temperature gradients near the cyclone warm core. Of six regression terms, four are dominated by temperature information, and two are interpreted as correcting for hydrometeor contamination. Jackknifed regressions were performed to estimate the algorithm performance on independent data. For the 82 cases that had in situ measurements of V(sub max), the average error standard deviation was 4.7 m/s. For 108 cases without in situ wind data, the average error standard deviation was 7.5 m/s Operational considerations, including the detection of weak cyclones and false alarm reduction, are also discussed.

Spencer, Roy W.↗

Climate Change Impacts on Rice Farming Systems in Northwestern Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka has achieved tremendous progress since 1950 in crop production and food availability. Yields grew at an impressive rate until leveling off in the mid-eighties. Sri Lanka's population is anticipated to grow in the coming decades, creating an ever-greater demand for food security on the household, sub-district, regional, and national scales.The agricultural sector in Sri Lanka is vulnerable to climate shocks. An unusual succession of droughts and floods from 2008 to 2014 has led to both booms and busts in agricultural production, which were reflected in food prices. In both instances, the majority of farmers and consumers were adversely affected.At present the rice-farming systems are under stress due to inadequate returns for the farmers and difficulty in coping with shocks due to climate, pests, and diseases, and prices for produce. There are government price-support mechanisms, fertilizer-subsidy schemes, and crop insurance schemes, but the levels of the supports are modest and often do not effectively reach the farmers.

agriculture↗

Seasonality of Biological and Physical Systems as Indicators of Climate Variation and Change

Evidence-based responses to climate change by society require operational and sustained information including biophysical indicator systems that provide up-to-date measures of trends and patterns against historical baselines. Two key components linking anthropogenic climate change to impacts on socio-ecological systems are the periodic inter- and intra-annual variations in physical climate systems (seasonality) and in plant and animal life cycles (phenology). We describe a set of national indicators that reflect sub-seasonal to seasonal drivers and responses of terrestrial physical and biological systems to climate change and variability at the national scale. Proposed indicators and metrics include seasonality of surface climate conditions (e.g., frost and freeze dates and durations), seasonality of freeze/thaw in freshwater systems (e.g., timing of stream runoff and durations of lake/river ice), seasonality in ecosystem disturbances (e.g., wildfire season timing and duration), seasonality in vegetated land surfaces (e.g., green-up and brown-down of landscapes), and seasonality of organismal life-history stages (e.g., timings of bird migration). Recommended indicators have strong linkages to variable and changing climates, include abiotic and biotic responses and feedback mechanisms, and are sufficiently simple to facilitate communication to broad audiences and stakeholders interested in understanding and adapting to climate change.

Seasonality↗

Development of a Rapid Cycling CO(sub 2) and H(sub 2)O Removal Sorbent

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) planned future missions set stringent demands on the design of the Portable Life Support System (PLSS), requiring dramatic reductions in weight, decreased reliance on supplies and greater flexibility on the types of missions. Use of regenerable systems that reduce weight and volume of the Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) is of critical importance to NASA, both for low orbit operations and for long duration manned missions. The carbon dioxide and humidity control unit in the existing PLSS design is relatively large, since it has to remove and store 8 hours worth of CO2. If the sorbent regeneration can be carried out during the extravehicular activity (EVA) with a relatively high regeneration frequency, the size of the sorbent canister and weight can be significantly reduced. The progress of regenerable CO2 and humidity control is leading us towards the use of a rapid cycling amine system. TDA Research, Inc. is developing compact, regenerable sorbent materials to control CO2 and humidity in the space suit ventilation loop. The sorbent can be regenerated using space vacuum during the EVA, eliminating all carbon dioxide and humidity duration-limiting elements in the life support system. The material also has applications in other areas of space exploration such as the Orion spacecraft and other longer duration exploration missions requiring regenerable technologies. This paper summarizes the results of the sorbent development, testing, and evaluation efforts to date. The results of a preliminary system analysis are also included, showing the size and volume reductions for PLSS provided by the new system.

Paul, Heather↗

Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Monitoring with AMSU-A: Estimation of Maximum Sustained Wind Speeds

The first Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit temperature sounder (AMSU-A) was launched on the NOAA-15 satellite on 13 May 1998. The AMSU-A's higher spatial and radiometric resolutions provide more useful information on the strength of the middle and upper tropospheric warm cores associated with tropical cyclones than have previous microwave temperature sounders. The gradient wind relationship suggests that the temperature gradient near the core of tropical cyclones increases nonlinearly with wind speed. We recast the gradient wind equation to include AMSU-A derived variables. Stepwise regression is used to determine which of these variables is most closely related to maximum sustained winds (V(sub max)). The satellite variables investigated include the radially averaged gradients at two spatial resolutions of AMSU-A channels 1 through 10 T(sub b) data (delta(sub r)T(sub b)), the squares of these gradients, a channel 15 based scattering index (SI-89), and area averaged T(sub b). Calculations of Tb and delta(sub r)T(sub b) from mesoscale model simulations of Andrew reveal the effects of the AMSU spatial sampling on the cyclone warm core presentation. Stepwise regression of 66 AMSU-A terms against National Hurricane Center (NHC) V(sub max) estimates from the 1998 and 1999 Atlantic hurricane season confirms the existence of a nonlinear relationship between wind speed and radially averaged temperature gradients near the cyclone warm core. Of six regression terms, four are dominated by temperature information, and two are interpreted as correcting for hydrometeor contamination. Jackknifed regressions were performed to estimate the algorithm performance on independent data. For the 82 cases that had in situ measurements of V(sub max), the average error standard deviation was 4.7 m/s. For 108 cases without in situ wind data, the average error standard deviation was 7.5 m/s. Operational considerations, including the detection of weak cyclones and false alarm reduction are also discussed.

Spencer, Roy↗

Intraseasonal variability in atmospheric surface pressure and relationship to polar motion

Two techniques were used to validate the theoretical relationship between polar motion and P sub s variations. The first method, reproduced from Hide et al. (1984), compares the fluctuations in physical space of the polar spirals and the high frequencies about them. Although the agreement appears reasonable, the lack of a clear measure of closeness and the presence of the large Chandler signal itself makes a comparison at higher frequencies difficult. To overcome this difficulty, the authors present the X functions required to maintain the observed fluctuations at roughly 20 to 70 days and those calculated from the National Meteorological Center (NMC) P sub s data. These curves are in relatively good agreement, indicating that polar motions are indeed driven, at least in large part, by fluctuations in P sub s.

Salstein, David A.↗

High-Propellant Throughput Sub-kW Electric Propulsion System for Deep Space Science and Exploration

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is maturing high-propellant throughput sub-kilowatt electric propulsion technologies to enable small spacecraft deep space science and exploration missions with high delta-v requirements. The pathfinder model (PM) propulsion system consists of the H71M-PM Hall-effect thruster, a breadboard 1-kW power processing unit (PPU), and a propellant flow control system. The propulsion system requirements balance the needs of various high delta-v NASA and commercial industry mission concepts to achieve a design that both enables a variety of NASA small spacecraft deep space missions, while remaining viable for select commercial applications. The H71M-PM thruster has completed performance characterization and three 500-h short duration wear tests (SDWT). The propulsion system provides stable thrust generation over a wide range of operating conditions from 200 W to 1 kW, and 200 V to 400 V. The thruster has demonstrated a thrust as high as 68 mN at 300 V and 1 kW. The thruster has similarly demonstrated a specific impulse of 1850 s at 400 V and 1 kW. Key surfaces were machined between each SDWT to simulate accelerated discharge channel and pole cover erosion. Profilometry scans across masked pole cover surfaces were conducted to determine erosion rates. SDWT results support that a target thruster lifetime of 14 kh with 50% margin is achievable. Component testing has demonstrated propellant azimuthal flow uniformity better than ± 2 percent of the nominal value, azimuthal magnetic field uniformity better than ± 0.5 percent of the nominal value, and cathode heater cycle testing to greater than 30,000 cycles. Propulsion system integrated system testing is planned to use the H71M-PM and a breadboard 1-kW PPU. Pathfinder model test results are now supporting the design of the H71M-EM engineering model thruster. A second-generation breadboard PPU has been fabricated and is currently under test. NASA has made these technologies available to U.S. industry through a no cost, nonexclusive license agreement.

Hall↗