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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Fusing subnational with national climate action is central to decarbonization: the case of the United States

Approaches that root national climate strategies in local actions will be essential for all countries as they develop new nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. The potential impact of climate action from non-national actors in delivering higher global ambition is significant. Sub-national action in the United States provides a test for how such actions can accelerate emissions reductions. We aggregated U.S. state, city, and business commitments within an integrated assessment model to assess how a national climate strategy can be built upon non-state actions. We find that existing commitments alone could reduce emissions 25% below 2005 levels by 2030, and that enhancing actions by these actors could reduce emissions up to 37%. We show how these actions can provide a stepped-up basis for additional federal action to reduce emissions by 49%—consistent with 1.5 °C. Our analysis demonstrates sub-national actions can lead to substantial reductions and support increased national action.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Carbon neutrality in Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur: Insights from stakeholder-driven integrated assessment modeling

Several cities in Malaysia have established plans to reduce their CO2 emissions, in addition to Malaysia submitting a Nationally Determined Contribution to reduce its carbon intensity (against GDP) by 45% in 2030 compared to 2005. Meeting these emissions reduction goals will require a joint effort between governments, industries, and corporations at different scales and across sectors. In collaboration with national and sub-national stakeholders, we developed and used a global integrated assessment model to explore emissions mitigation pathways in Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur. Guided by current climate action plans, we created a suite of scenarios to reflect uncertainties in policy ambition, level of adoption, and implementation for reaching carbon neutrality. Through iterative engagement with all parties, we refined the scenarios and focus of the analysis to best meet the stakeholders’ needs. We found that Malaysia can reduce its carbon intensity and reach carbon neutrality by 2050, and that action in Kuala Lumpur can play a significant role. Decarbonization of the power sector paired with extensive electrification, energy efficiency improvements in buildings, transportation, and industry, and the use of advanced technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture and storage will be major drivers to mitigate emissions, with carbon dioxide removal strategies being key to eliminate residual emissions. This study highlights the participatory process in which stakeholders contributed to the development of the model and guided the analysis, as well as insights into Malaysia’s decarbonization potential and the role of multilevel governance.

cities↗
DOE OSTI2021

Paths Forward for Nuclear Energy: Using a Nationwide Post-Stratified Hierarchical Model to Facilitate Matching of New Nuclear Technologies to Receptive Host Communities

This project was a collaboration between the University of Oklahoma (OU) and the University of Michigan (UMich). The overall objective of the project was to address a critical problem facing the siting of nuclear facilities, where there is no mechanism for incorporating public attitudes at a state and local level into decision-making. Utilizing recent advances in data modeling over local spatial scales, the research team created a state and county level map of public attitudes towards nuclear energy. Current estimates for public acceptance of nuclear technologies primarily exists on a national level, and sub-national estimates of public opinion about reactor siting, research facilities, transport routes, or storage and disposal facilities are very scarce. Model results from this project provide a systematic basis for technology developers to evaluate public acceptance across alternative siting options as a critical component for weighing potential benefit-cost tradeoffs for alternative paths to deploy new nuclear facilities. The project utilized data from the largest database of nuclear attitudes in the US, coupled with Census and elections-related data as well as data on social vulnerability and proximity to current nuclear facilities. In addition to modeling public support, the team also developed an interactive map to showcase results, using an online tool called Public and Local Attitudes about Nuclear Energy Technologies (PLANET). The tool allows technology developers and stakeholders to interact with the model results and better understand variation in support for nuclear facility siting on a state and county level. The interactive nature of the tool also allows users to analyze results in a targeted way, by comparing levels of support across different states and/or counties as desired.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa

We present results from large ensembles of projected twenty-first century changes in seasonal precipitation and near-surface air temperature for the nation of South Africa. These ensembles are a result of combining Monte Carlo projections from a human-Earth system model of intermediate complexity with pattern-scaled responses from climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These future ensemble scenarios consider a range of global actions to abate emissions through the twenty-first century. We evaluate distributions of surface-air temperature and precipitation change over three sub-national regions: western, central, and eastern South Africa. In all regions, we find that without any emissions or climate targets in place, there is a greater than 50% likelihood that mid-century temperatures will increase threefold over the current climate’s two-standard deviation range of variability. However, scenarios that consider more aggressive climate targets all but eliminate the risk of these salient temperature increases. A preponderance of risk toward decreased precipitation (3 to 4 times higher than increased) exists for western and central South Africa. Strong climate targets abate evolving regional hydroclimatic risks. Under a target to limit global climate warming to 1.5 °C by 2100, the risk of precipitation changes within South Africa toward the end of this century (2065–2074) is commensurate to the risk during the 2030s without any global climate target. Thus, these regional hydroclimate risks over South Africa could be delayed by 30 years and, in doing so, provide invaluable lead-time for national efforts to prepare, fortify, and/or adapt.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Land-use harmonization datasets for annual global carbon budgets

Abstract. Land-use change has been the dominant source of anthropogenic carbon emissions for most of the historical period and is currently one of the largest and most uncertain components of the global carbon cycle. Advancing the scientific understanding on this topic requires that the best data be used as input to state-of-the-art models in well-organized scientific assessments. The Land-Use Harmonization 2 dataset (LUH2), previously developed and used as input for simulations of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), has been updated annually to provide required input to land models in the annual Global Carbon Budget (GCB) assessments. Here we discuss the methodology for producing these annual LUH2-GCB updates and extensions which incorporate annual wood harvest data updates from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations for dataset years after 2015 and the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) gridded cropland and grazing area data updates (based on annual FAO cropland and grazing area data updates) for dataset years after 2012, along with extrapolations to the current year due to a lag of 1 or more years in the FAO data releases. The resulting updated LUH2-GCB datasets have provided global, annual gridded land-use and land-use-change data relating to agricultural expansion, deforestation, wood harvesting, shifting cultivation, regrowth and afforestation, crop rotations, and pasture management and are used by both bookkeeping models and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) for the GCB. For GCB 2019, a more significant update to LUH2 was produced, LUH2-GCB2019 (https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1851, Chini et al., 2020b), to take advantage of new data inputs that corrected cropland and grazing areas in the globally important region of Brazil as far back as 1950. From 1951 to 2012 the LUH2-GCB2019 dataset begins to diverge from the version of LUH2 used for the World Climate Research Programme's CMIP6, with peak differences in Brazil in the year 2000 for grazing land (difference of 100 000 km2) and in the year 2009 for cropland (difference of 77 000 km2), along with significant sub-national reorganization of agricultural land-use patterns within Brazil. The LUH2-GCB2019 dataset provides the base for future LUH2-GCB updates, including the recent LUH2-GCB2020 dataset, and presents a starting point for operationalizing the creation of these datasets to reduce time lags due to the multiple input dataset and model latencies.

Chini, Louise (ORCID:0000000290703505)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating long-term model-based scenarios of the energy system

Energy-economic models are used to provide science-based decision support in a variety of contexts. Analyses using these tools often involve defining a “reference” scenario, which serves as a counterfactual against which alternative scenarios are compared. Evaluating scenarios, including reference scenarios, is critical for establishing the credibility of the analyses these models support. We propose a framework for evaluating energy system scenarios which consists of three parts – a qualitative storyline, quantitative metrics, and evaluation criteria. We apply this framework to the reference scenario for GCAM-USA, a version of the global human-Earth system model GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) with state-level detail in the United States, focusing on the evolution of the electric power sector. We develop new visual analytic tools to facilitate the evaluation of model outcomes in 51 sub-national regions, and demonstrate how scenario performance can be tracked and compared across four quantifications of the GCAM-USA reference scenario.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Implications of Global Change for the Co-Evolution of Argentina's Integrated Energy-Water-Land Systems

This study seeks to understand how Argentina’s energy, water, and land (EWL) systems will co-evolve under a representative array of human and earth system influences, including socioeconomic change, climate change, and climate policy. To capture Argentina’s sub-national EWL dynamics in the context of global change, we couple the Global Change Analysis Model with a suite of consistent, gridded sectoral downscaling models to explore multiple stakeholder-engaged scenarios. Across scenarios, Argentina has the economic opportunity to use its vast land resources to satisfy growing domestic and international demand for crops, such as oil (e.g., soy) and biomass. The human (rather than earth) system produces the most dominant changes in mid-century EWL resource use. A Reference scenario characterized by modest socioeconomic growth projects a 40% increase in Argentina’s agricultural production by 2050 (relative to 2020) by using 50,000 km 2 of additional cropland and 40% more water. A Climate Policy scenario designed to achieve net-zero carbon emissions globally shortly after mid-century projects that Argentina could use 100,000 km 2 of additional land (and 65% more water) to grow biomass and other crops. The burden of navigating these national opportunities and challenges could fall disproportionately on a subset of Argentina’s river basins. The Colorado and Negro basins could experience moderate-to-severe water scarcity as they simultaneously navigate substantial irrigated crop demand growth and climate-induced declines in natural water availability. Argentina serves as a generalizable testbed to demonstrate that multi-scale EWL planning challenges can be identified and managed more effectively via integrated analysis of coupled human-earth systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Source sector and fuel contributions to ambient PM 2.5 and attributable mortality across multiple spatial scales

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is the world’s leading environmental health risk factor. Reducing the PM 2.5 disease burden requires specific strategies that target dominant sources across multiple spatial scales. We provide a contemporary and comprehensive evaluation of sector- and fuel-specific contributions to this disease burden across 21 regions, 204 countries, and 200 sub-national areas by integrating 24 global atmospheric chemistry-transport model sensitivity simulations, high-resolution satellite-derived PM 2.5 exposure estimates, and disease-specific concentration response relationships. Globally, 1.05 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.74–1.36) million deaths were avoidable in 2017 by eliminating fossil-fuel combustion (27.3% of the total PM 2.5 burden), with coal contributing to over half. Other dominant global sources included residential (0.74 [0.52–0.95] million deaths; 19.2%), industrial (0.45 [0.32–0.58] million deaths; 11.7%), and energy (0.39 [0.28–0.51] million deaths; 10.2%) sectors. Our results show that regions with large anthropogenic contributions generally had the highest attributable deaths, suggesting substantial health benefits from replacing traditional energy sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Action Plan for Maritime Energy and Emissions Innovation

The Action Plan for Maritime Energy and Emissions Innovation (the action plan) lays out a strategy to reduce and eliminate nearly all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the U.S. maritime sector by 2050, in line with the U.S. economy-wide goal of net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. To reach this goal, the action plan outlines actions, objectives, targets, and activities to scale low- and net-zero emissions fuels, energies, and technologies; strengthen the maritime workforce; bolster shipbuilding capacity; and expand complementary landside infrastructure. The action plan supports industry, mariners, communities, civil society, sub-national governments, and other interested parties that will decarbonize the maritime sector alongside the U.S. government.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

GCAM-USA: IM3 Phase 2 Official Simulations

Overview GCAM-USA simulates 21st century energy-water-land interactions in global regions with sub-national detail in the United States (US). The IM3 project is focused on US multisector dynamics and has created eight GCAM-USA simulations by combining two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight GCAM-USA simulations are named: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 Detailed Assumptions The SSPs describe alternative socioeconomic futures and their implications for both the US and global environmental challenges. As implemented in GCAM-USA, the primary difference between SSP3 and SSP5 in the US is their population growth projections, with SSP3 foreseeing lower growth and SSP5 projecting higher growth. The four climate projections explore moderate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emission (GHG) trajectories, each with a hotter and cooler climate variation based on the range of global climate model simulations in CMIP6s. These four climate projections are used in precursor models to develop climate impacts on building heating and cooling degree-hours, water availability, and agricultural yields that are provided as inputs to GCAM-USA. GCAM-USA reproduces the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 GHG emissions trajectories consistent with each climate projection, using dynamic carbon prices to achieve RCP4.5. When the four climate projections are combined with the two SSP projections, the resulting eight scenarios allow GCAM-USA to explore how a wide, yet plausible, range of climate and socioeconomic impacts affects the interconnected energy, water, and land systems across the contiguous United States. Technical Details IM3 uses a version of GCAM-USA v5.3 that has an enhanced electricity sector and an updated data system needed to represent regional to local scale dynamics.

IM3↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tierra del Fuego Case Study Capacity Expansion Analysis

This case study, developed by Net Zero World Initiative and the Government of Argentina, examines least-cost decarbonization pathways for Tierra del Fuego, Argentina, utilizing renewable energy, energy storage, hydrogen, and other decarbonization technologies. Being the second largest natural gas producing province in Argentina, Tierra del Fuego has historically relied on natural gas for their energy sector needs. As they look at possible decarbonization pathways, they face challenges due to extreme weather conditions, isolation from the mainland, and low population density. The study utilizes the Engage web application for capacity expansion modeling, addressing both business-as-usual (BAU) and accelerated decarbonization scenarios, with varying degrees of electrification and carbon emission constraints. Key findings reveal that an interconnection with the mainland, high contribution of wind energy development on Tierra del Fuego, energy storage, and hydrogen, coupled with energy-efficient electrification technologies (such as heat pumps and electric vehicles), emerge as the most cost-effective solutions to decarbonize, significantly reducing carbon emissions and total system energy costs. The study explores self-generation and interconnection alternatives, demonstrating the economic advantage of an interconnection of Tierra del Fuego with the mainland, as an alternative to 100% local generation. Sensitivity analyses on wind data sources and temporal resolutions, as well as projected natural gas prices, highlight the influence of external factors on the feasibility of decarbonization pathways. Challenges identified include the practicality of phasing out natural gas, economic uncertainty, cost implications of long-term storage technologies as wind energy increases, and geographical limitations for wind generation. The case study concludes that while substantial emissions reductions can be achieved by 2050, and be competitive with conventional pathways, achieving a full 100% decarbonization by 2050 would entail higher costs, particularly due to the significant reliance on storage solutions with higher contribution of wind energy. The analysis offers valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in Argentina's energy sector, emphasizing the importance of strategic planning, investment in renewable energy and storage technologies, and careful consideration of local conditions in the transition towards Net Zero targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sub-keV design for the National Ignition Facility’s soft x-ray Opacity Spectrometer (OpSpec) and expansion plans for time-resolved measurements

When compared with the National Ignition Facility’s (NIF) original soft x-ray opacity spectrometer, which used a convex cylindrical design, an elliptically shaped design has helped to increase the signal-to-noise ratio and eliminated nearly all reflections from alternate crystal planes. The success of the elliptical geometry in the opacity experiments has driven a new elliptical geometry crystal with a spectral range covering 520–1100 eV. When coupled with the primary elliptical geometry, which spans 1000–2100 eV, the new sub-keV elliptical geometry helps to cover the full iron L-shell and major oxygen transitions important to solar opacity experimentation. The new design has been built and tested by using a Henke x-ray source and shows the desired spectral coverage. Additional plans are underway to expand these opacity measurements into a mode of time-resolved detection, ~1 ns gated, but considerations for the detector size and photometrics mean a crystal geometry redesign. Here, the new low-energy geometry, including preliminary results from the NIF opacity experiments, is presented along with the expansion plans into a time-resolved platform.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Late-Stage Research Development and Demonstration Sub-Activities Updates

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), in collaboration with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and the Hummingbird Firm (a specialized consulting firm focused on promoting diversity, equity, and inclusion considerations), has initiated a national initiative known as the Heat Pump (HP) and Heat Pump Water Heater (HPWH) Field Validation Partnership. This effort involves active participation from numerous critical entities involved in research and market transformation within the field.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Late-Stage Research Development and Demonstration Sub-activities Updates

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), in collaboration with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and the Hummingbird Firm (a specialized consulting firm focused on promoting diversity, equity, and inclusion considerations), has initiated a national initiative known as the Heat Pump (HP) and Heat Pump Water Heater (HPWH) Field Validation Partnership. This effort involves active participation from numerous critical entities involved in research and market transformation within the field.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Parametric coincidence in the baryon to dark matter ratio from Affleck-Dine baryogenesis and UV freeze-in dark matter

We highlight that the observed concurrence between the baryon and dark matter relic densities can be explained via a parametric coincidence between two distinct production mechanisms: Affleck-Dine baryogenesis and dark matter UV freeze-in. In the Affleck-Dine mechanism, the baryon asymmetry is naturally proportional to the inflationary reheating temperature 𝑇 rh , which also plays a critical role in setting the relic abundance of UV freeze-in dark matter. Since Affleck-Dine baryogenesis requires flat directions in the potential, the framework is inherently supersymmetric, offering compelling UV freeze-in dark matter candidates such as the gravitino. We outline scenarios in which 𝑇 rh simultaneously determines both relic abundances, resulting in a baryon-to-dark matter ratio of order unity that is largely insensitive to 𝑇 rh . We also discuss the conditions required to avoid Q-ball formation or dark matter production by other mechanisms, such as next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle decays, to preserve the parametric coincidence between baryon and dark matter abundances.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗