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Results for “subgrid parameterization”

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At least 19 records

Parameterizing Subgrid Variations of Land Surface Heat Fluxes to the Atmosphere Improves Boreal Summer Land Precipitation Simulation With the NCAR CESM1.2

Subgrid horizontal variations of land surface heat fluxes to the atmosphere resulting from subgrid land cover heterogeneity are important in land-atmosphere interaction in global climate models (GCMs). To incorporate it, a parameterization using stochastic sampling based on truncated normal distributions diagnosed from the land model and internal ensemble mean of multiple calls to the planetary boundary layer and deep convection schemes is developed. After its implementation in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (CESM1.2), large changes of simulated land precipitation are found to occur in regions where large subgrid variations of surface heat fluxes exist. The simulated precipitation is improved in boreal summer, especially over eastern China and the coastal areas of the Bay of Bengal. The improved precipitation is mainly a result of improved large-scale moisture convergence and advection by altered vertical diffusion and convection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An Evaluation of Marine Boundary Layer Cloud Property Simulations in the Community Atmosphere Model Using Satellite Observations: Conventional Subgrid Parameterization versus CLUBB

This paper presents a satellite-observation-based evaluation of the marine boundary layer (MBL) cloud properties from two Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), simulations, one with the standard parameterization schemes (CAM5–Base) and the other with the Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals scheme (CAM5–CLUBB). When comparing the direct model outputs, the authors find that CAM5–CLUBB produces more MBL clouds, a smoother transition from stratocumulus to cumulus, and a tighter correlation between in-cloud water and cloud fraction than CAM5–Base. In the model-to-observation comparison using the COSP satellite simulators, the authors find that both simulations capture the main features and spatial patterns of the observed cloud fraction from MODIS and shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCF) from CERES. However, CAM5–CLUBB suffers more than CAM5–Base from a problem that can be best summarized as “undetectable” clouds (i.e., a significant fraction of simulated MBL clouds are thinner than the MODIS detection threshold). This issue leads to a smaller COSP–MODIS cloud fraction and a weaker SWCF in CAM5–CLUBB than the observations and also CAM5–Base in the tropical descending regions. Finally, the authors compare modeled radar reflectivity with CloudSat observations and find that both simulations, especially CAM5–CLUBB, suffer from an excessive drizzle problem. Further analysis reveals that the subgrid precipitation enhancement factors in CAM5–CLUBB are unrealistically large, which makes MBL clouds precipitate too excessively, and in turn results in too many undetectable thin clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Gradient Based Subgrid-Scale Parameterization for Ocean Mesoscale Eddies

Mesoscale eddies play an important role in transport of heat and biogeochemical tracers in the global ocean circulation. Resolving these energetic eddies, however, is challenging in ocean general circulation models (OGCM) because it requires a horizontal grid spacing of ≲1/8° that is computationally expensive. As a result, we are required to parameterize mesoscale eddy effects on large-scale ocean flows. In this work, we introduce a new subgrid-scale (SGS) model that is developed based on a Taylor series expansion of resolved variables to parameterize subgrid mesoscale eddy transports and momentum fluxes in OGCM. We have performed an a priori study to evaluate the performance of our new gradient model using high-resolution ocean simulations. Our results show that the gradient model well predicts the actual SGS thickness fluxes in the zonal and meridional directions in coarse-resolution simulations with the grid spacing ≳1/4°. The unresolved kinetic energy at the ocean surface is also skillfully estimated. More importantly, unlike current mesoscale eddy parameterizations, which are mainly developed based on an assumption of flat bottom ocean, our new SGS model can capture the structure of unresolved standing meanders at the ocean surface. We have also developed a dynamic procedure for setting in non-dimensional parameters in our new parameterization through a non-ad hoc and tuning-free method. Overall, this work suggests that implementing the gradient model in OGCM can improve the model accuracy with an affordable computational cost in eddy-permitting and non-eddying simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Learning subgrid-scale models with neural ordinary differential equations

We propose a new approach to learning the subgrid-scale model when simulating partial differential equations (PDEs) solved by the method of lines and their representation in chaotic ordinary differential equations, based on neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs). Solving systems with fine temporal and spatial grid scales is an ongoing computational challenge, and closure models are generally difficult to tune. Machine learning approaches have increased the accuracy and efficiency of computational fluid dynamics solvers. In this approach neural networks are used to learn the coarse- to fine-grid map, which can be viewed as subgrid-scale parameterization. We propose a strategy that uses the NODE and partial knowledge to learn the source dynamics at a continuous level. Our method inherits the advantages of NODEs and can be used to parameterize subgrid scales, approximate coupling operators, and improve the efficiency of low-order solvers. Numerical results with the two-scale Lorenz 96 ODE, the convection-diffusion PDE, and the viscous Burgers' PDE are used to illustrate this approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Validation of High Resolution Atmospheric and Dispersion Simulations

Weather models typically operate on averages of 1 km or more. This averages out fine scale turbulence. This results in smooth laminar flows and rapid vertical motions are usually averaged out. In this study, those fine scaled features were simulated for a 2013 field study of transport and diffusion of a tracer gas. Parameterized subgrid turbulence was required to produce dilution representative of observations. Despite this, the simulation with the finest grid and contained parameterized subgrid turbulence produced dilution that was consistent with observations.

THOMAS, ANDREW↗

A priori analysis on deep learning of subgrid-scale parameterizations for Kraichnan turbulence

In the present study, we investigate different data-driven parameterizations for large eddy simulation of two-dimensional turbulence in the a priori settings. These models utilize resolved flow field variables on the coarser grid to estimate the subgrid-scale stresses. We use data-driven closure models based on localized learning that employs a multilayer feedforward artificial neural network with point-to-point mapping and neighboring stencil data mapping, and convolutional neural network fed by data snapshots of the whole domain. The performance of these data-driven closure models is measured through a probability density function and is compared with the dynamic Smagorinksy model (DSM). The quantitative performance is evaluated using the cross-correlation coefficient between the true and predicted stresses. We analyze different frameworks in terms of the amount of training data, selection of input and output features, their characteristics in modeling with accuracy, and training and deployment computational time. We also demonstrate computational gain that can be achieved using the intelligent eddy viscosity model that learns eddy viscosity computed by the DSM instead of subgrid-scale stresses. Here, we detail the hyperparameters optimization of these models using the grid search algorithm.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Stable Machine‐Learning Parameterization of Subgrid Processes in a Comprehensive Atmospheric Model Learned From Embedded Convection‐Permitting Simulations

Modern climate projections often suffer from inadequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational limitations, resulting in inaccurate representations of sub-grid processes. A promising technique to address this is the multiscale modeling framework (MMF), which embeds a kilometer-resolution cloud-resolving model (CRM) within each atmospheric column of a host climate model to replace traditional convection and cloud parameterizations. Machine learning offers a unique opportunity to make MMF more accessible by emulating the embedded CRM and reducing its substantial computational cost. Although many studies have demonstrated proof-of-concept success of achieving stable hybrid simulations, it remains a challenge to achieve near operational-level success with real geography and comprehensive variable emulation that includes, for example, explicit cloud condensate coupling. In this study, we present a stable hybrid model capable of integrating for at least 5 years with near operational-level complexity, including coarse-grid geography, seasonality, explicit cloud condensate and wind predictions, and land coupling. Our model demonstrates skillful online performance, achieving a 5-year zonal mean tropospheric temperature bias within 2 K, water vapor bias within 1 g/kg, and a precipitation root mean square error of 0.96 mm/day. Key factors contributing to our online performance include an expressive U-Net architecture and physical thermodynamic constraints for microphysics. With microphysical constraints mitigating unrealistic cloud formation, our work is the first to demonstrate realistic multi-year cloud condensate climatology under the MMF framework. Despite these advances, online diagnostics reveal persistent biases in certain regions, highlighting the need for innovative strategies to further optimize online performance.

Hu, Zeyuan [NVIDIA Corporation, Santa Clara, CA (U↗

Better calibration of cloud parameterizations and subgrid effects increases the fidelity of the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 1

Abstract. Realistic simulation of the Earth's mean-state climate remains a major challenge, and yet it is crucial for predicting the climate system in transition. Deficiencies in models' process representations, propagation of errors from one process to another, and associated compensating errors can often confound the interpretation and improvement of model simulations. These errors and biases can also lead to unrealistic climate projections and incorrect attribution of the physical mechanisms governing past and future climate change. Here we show that a significantly improved global atmospheric simulation can be achieved by focusing on the realism of process assumptions in cloud calibration and subgrid effects using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1). The calibration of clouds and subgrid effects informed by our understanding of physical mechanisms leads to significant improvements in clouds and precipitation climatology, reducing common and long-standing biases across cloud regimes in the model. The improved cloud fidelity in turn reduces biases in other aspects of the system. Furthermore, even though the recalibration does not change the global mean aerosol and total anthropogenic effective radiative forcings (ERFs), the sensitivity of clouds, precipitation, and surface temperature to aerosol perturbations is significantly reduced. This suggests that it is possible to achieve improvements to the historical evolution of surface temperature over EAMv1 and that precise knowledge of global mean ERFs is not enough to constrain historical or future climate change. Cloud feedbacks are also significantly reduced in the recalibrated model, suggesting that there would be a lower climate sensitivity when it is run as part of the fully coupled E3SM. This study also compares results from incremental changes to cloud microphysics, turbulent mixing, deep convection, and subgrid effects to understand how assumptions in the representation of these processes affect different aspects of the simulated atmosphere as well as its response to forcings. We conclude that the spectral composition and geographical distribution of the ERFs and cloud feedback, as well as the fidelity of the simulated base climate state, are important for constraining the climate in the past and future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Accurate assessment of land–atmosphere coupling in climate models requires high-frequency data output

Land–atmosphere (L–A) interactions are important for understanding convective processes, climate feedbacks, the development and perpetuation of droughts, heatwaves, pluvials, and other land-centered climate anomalies. Local L–A coupling (LoCo) metrics capture relevant L–A processes, highlighting the impact of soil and vegetation states on surface flux partitioning and the impact of surface fluxes on boundary layer (BL) growth and development and the entrainment of air above the BL. A primary goal of the Climate Process Team in the Coupling Land and Atmospheric Subgrid Parameterizations (CLASP) project is parameterizing and characterizing the impact of subgrid heterogeneity in global and regional Earth system models (ESMs) to improve the connection between land and atmospheric states and processes. A critical step in achieving that aim is the incorporation of L–A metrics, especially LoCo metrics, into climate model diagnostic process streams. However, because land–atmosphere interactions span timescales of minutes (e.g., turbulent fluxes), hours (e.g., BL growth and decay), days (e.g., soil moisture memory), and seasons (e.g., variability in behavioral regimes between soil moisture and latent heat flux), with multiple processes of interest happening in different geographic regions at different times of year, there is not a single metric that captures all the modes, means, and methods of interaction between the land and the atmosphere. And while monthly means of most of the LoCo-relevant variables are routinely saved from ESM simulations, data storage constraints typically preclude routine archival of the hourly data that would enable the calculation of all LoCo metrics. Here, we outline a reasonable data request that would allow for adequate characterization of sub-daily coupling processes between the land and the atmosphere, preserving enough sub-daily output to describe, analyze, and better understand L–A coupling in modern climate models. A secondary request involves embedding calculations within the models to determine mean properties in and above the BL to further improve characterization of model behavior. Higher-frequency model output will (i) allow for more direct comparison with observational field campaigns on process-relevant timescales, (ii) enable demonstration of inter-model spread in L–A coupling processes, and (iii) aid in targeted identification of sources of deficiencies and opportunities for improvement of the models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deep learning to represent subgrid processes in climate models

The representation of nonlinear subgrid processes, especially clouds, has been a major source of uncertainty in climate models for decades. Cloud-resolving models better represent many of these processes and can now be run globally but only for short-term simulations of at most a few years because of computational limitations. Here we demonstrate that deep learning can be used to capture many advantages of cloud-resolving modeling at a fraction of the computational cost. We train a deep neural network to represent all atmospheric subgrid processes in a climate model by learning from a multiscale model in which convection is treated explicitly. The trained neural network then replaces the traditional subgrid parameterizations in a global general circulation model in which it freely interacts with the resolved dynamics and the surface-flux scheme. The prognostic multiyear simulations are stable and closely reproduce not only the mean climate of the cloud-resolving simulation but also key aspects of variability, including precipitation extremes and the equatorial wave spectrum. Furthermore, the neural network approximately conserves energy despite not being explicitly instructed to. Finally, we show that the neural network parameterization generalizes to new surface forcing patterns but struggles to cope with temperatures far outside its training manifold. Our results show the feasibility of using deep learning for climate model parameterization. In a broader context, we anticipate that data-driven Earth system model development could play a key role in reducing climate prediction uncertainty in the coming decade.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Subgrid Approach for Modeling Microtopography Effects on Overland Flow

Microtopography, or heterogeneities in the elevation across scales much smaller than the domain of interest, plays a critical role in surface water retention, surface/subsurface interactions, and runoff. Resolving microtopographic influences on flow requires high–resolution simulations, which are computationally demanding even when considering the surface system in isolation and even more so when surface flow is one component in integrated simulations that couple surface flow with unsaturated subsurface flow. There is thus significant motivation for models that allow the effects of subgrid microtopography to be better represented. Subgrid models modify coarsened models to capture the microtopography–induced nonlinear effects on hydrologic processes. We present a subgrid model that alters the water storage and flow terms in the diffusion wave equation for surface flow. Stochastically generated microtopography with strongly contrasting spatial structure, high–resolution digital elevation maps from a polygonal tundra site on the North Slope of Alaska and a hummocky microtopography from a field site in Northern Minnesota are used to assess the accuracy and applicability of the subgrid model to disparate landscapes. Approaches for determining subgrid model parameters are tested and simulation results using the subgrid model are compared to benchmark fine–scale simulations and to coarse simulations that ignore microtopography. Our findings confirm that a properly parameterized subgrid model greatly improves the coarse–scale representation of hydrographs and total water content in the system. Furthermore, using the polygonal tundra example, we propose and test a strategy for moving to application–relevant spatial scales by combining microtopography classification and a few fine–scale simulations on small subdomains.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Implementation of a Quasi-3D Multiscale Modeling Framework to ACME

Representation of unresolved cloud processes has been one of the most challenging problems in numerical modeling of the atmosphere. During the last decades, considerable efforts have been spent to better represent the collective effects of those processes in terms of resolved scales (see Arakawa 2004 for a review). Still, the progress on this problem has been unacceptably slow as pointed out by Randall et al. (2003). The large part of the difficulty is inherent in the artificial separation of atmospheric processes into the explicitly simulated resolved scales and the highly parameterized subgrid scales. Arakawa (2004) and Arakawa et al. (2011) suggested two plausible approaches to eliminate the problem of artificial separation ofatmospheric processes: “parameterize everything” and “resolve everything”.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Use of Remote Sensing and In-situ Observations to Develop and Evaluate Improved Representations of Convection and Clouds for the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy. Final report

Representation of unresolved cloud processes has been one of the most challenging problems in numerical modeling of the atmosphere. During the last decades, considerable efforts have been spent to better represent the collective effects of those processes in terms of resolved scales (see Arakawa 2004 for a review). Still, the progress on this problem has been unacceptably slow as pointed out by Randall et al. (2003). The large part of the difficulty is inherent in the artificial separation of atmospheric processes into the explicitly simulated resolved scales and the highly parameterized subgrid scales. Arakawa (2004) and Arakawa et al. (2011) suggested two plausible approaches to eliminate the problem of artificial separation of atmospheric processes: “parameterize everything” and “resolve everything”.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Single–Column Model Simulations of Subtropical Marine Boundary–Layer Cloud Transitions Under Weakening Inversions

Results are presented of the GASS/EUCLIPSE single-column model inter-comparison study on the subtropical marine low-level cloud transition. A central goal is to establish the performance of state-of-the-art boundary-layer schemes for weather and climate models for this cloud regime, using large-eddy simulations of the same scenes as a reference. A novelty is that the comparison covers four different cases instead of one, in order to broaden the covered parameter space. Three cases are situated in the North-Eastern Pacific, while one reflects conditions in the North-Eastern Atlantic. A set of variables is considered that reflects key aspects of the transition process, making use of simple metrics to establish the model performance. Using this method some longstanding problems in low level cloud representation are identified. Considerable spread exists among models concerning the cloud amount, its vertical structure and the associated impact on radiative transfer. Here, the sign and amplitude of these biases differ somewhat per case, depending on how far the transition has progressed. After cloud breakup the ensemble median exhibits the well-known “too few too bright” problem. The boundary layer deepening rate and its state of decoupling are both underestimated, while the representation of the thin capping cloud layer appears complicated by a lack of vertical resolution. Encouragingly, some models are successful in representing the full set of variables, in particular the vertical structure and diurnal cycle of the cloud layer in transition. An intriguing result is that the median of the model ensemble performs best, inspiring a new approach in subgrid parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Study of Intermittent Turbulence in Stable Arctic Boundary Layers

Abstract Polar boundary layers are difficult to model due to the existence of intermittent turbulence within stable layers. Here we present a case study evaluation of coherent structures in a stable boundary layer observed during a series of flights with an uncrewed aircraft system (DataHawk2) on 19 October 2016 at Oliktok Point, Alaska as part of the ERASMUS (Evaluation of Routine Atmospheric Sounding Measurements using Unmanned Systems) field campaign. During a sequence of five flights over a nine-hour period, 57 profiles of atmospheric properties (0–400 m a.g.l) were collected. Turbulence was identified using derived Richardson Number, temperature structure function parameter, and turbulence kinetic energy dissipation. Throughout all flights on this strongly stable day, intermittent turbulence was observed. These turbulent layers showed well-mixed potential temperature profiles embedded within otherwise stable potential temperature profiles; often resulting in a characteristic staircase pattern. Turbulent layers ranged from 1 to 30 m deep, with most individual layers being 1–2 m deep. Vertical propagation velocities of layers in the lower atmosphere were on the order of a few cm s −1 , typical of non-convective environments. In different regions of the profile, turbulence was driven by a different balance of buoyancy and shear forces, with turbulence in the near surface environment driven by strong shear forces overcoming strong resistance to buoyancy, while turbulence in elevated layers characterized by weaker shear forces overcoming weaker resistance to buoyancy. We discuss the potential of such datasets for improving subgrid parameterizations of small-scale turbulence embedded within stable boundary layers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Future Community Efforts in Understanding and Modeling Atmospheric Processes

Atmospheric processes are important for weather, climate, and water prediction, as well as climate change projection, but their representation through subgrid parameterizations remains challenging. Understanding and representing these processes are therefore major goals of international research programs. The Global Atmospheric System Studies (GASS) Panel (Zeng and Klocke 2017), as part of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges Project (GEWEX), is dedicated to developing and improving the representation of the atmosphere in weather and climate models by facilitating and supporting the international community to carry out and use observations, process studies, and numerical model experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Linking Large-Scale Double-ITCZ Bias to Local-Scale Drizzling Bias in Climate Models

Tropical precipitation in climate models presents significant biases in both the large-scale pattern (i.e., double intertropical convergence zone bias) and local-scale characteristics (i.e., drizzling bias with too frequent drizzle/convection and reduced occurrences of no and heavy precipitation). By untangling the coupled system and analyzing the biases in precipitation, cloud, and radiation, this study shows that local-scale drizzling bias in atmospheric models can lead to large-scale double-ITCZ bias in coupled models by inducing convective-regime-dependent biases in precipitation and cloud radiative effects (CRE). The double-ITCZ bias consists of a hemispherically asymmetric component that arises from the asymmetric SST bias and a nearly symmetric component that exists in atmospheric models without the SST bias. By increasing light rain but reducing heavy rain, local-scale drizzling bias induces positive (negative) precipitation bias in the moderate (strong) convective regime, leading to the nearly symmetric wet bias in atmospheric models. By affecting the cloud profile, local-scale drizzling bias induces positive (negative) CRE bias in the stratocumulus (convective) regime in atmospheric models. Because the stratocumulus (convective) region is climatologically more pronounced in the southern (northern) tropics, the CRE bias is deemed to be hemispherically asymmetric and drives warm and wet (cold and dry) biases in the southern (northern) tropics when coupled to ocean. Our results suggest that correcting local-scale drizzling bias is critical for fixing large-scale double-ITCZ bias. Finally, the drizzling and double-ITCZ biases are not alleviated in models with mesoscale (0.25°–0.5°) or even storm-resolving (~3 km) resolution, implying that either large-eddy simulation or fundamental improvement in small-scale subgrid parameterizations is needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Building an AI-enhanced modeling framework to address multiscale predictability challenges

Focal Area(s): Build an AI-enhanced modeling framework that integrates the three focus areas in the solicitation. Science Challenge: The 4M-2N complexities (Multiscale, Multiphysics, Multibody, Multidimension, Non-linearity, and Non-Gaussianality) of atmospheric aerosol-cloud-precipitation-turbulence-radiation system poses physical and computational challenges to further advance predictive models; We plan to address the challenges by developing an AI-enhanced modeling framework that facilitates automated calibration and improvement of subgrid parameterizations, enhance data assimilation of measurements to improve initial and boundary conditions used to drive the physical model, and optimally blends data-driven and physics-based forecasting models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗