A new seasonal-deciduous spring phenology submodel in the Community Land Model 4.5: impacts on carbon and water cycling under future climate scenarios
Not provided.
Biodiversity & Conservation↗
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Submodels of model of nonlinear diffusion in the inhomogeneous medium involving absorption
We study the five-parameter model, describing the process of nonlinear diffusion in an inhomogeneous medium in the presence of absorption, for which the differential equation of the model admits a continuous Lie group of transformations, acting on the set of its solutions. We found six submodels of the original model of nonlinear diffusion, with different symmetry properties. Of these six submodels, the five submodels with transient absorption, for which the absorption coefficient depends on time according to a power law, represent the greatest interest with a mathematical point of view and with the point of view of physical applications. For each of these nonlinear submodels, we obtained formulas for producing new solutions that contain arbitrary constants, and we found all invariant submodels. All essentially distinct invariant solutions describing these invariant submodels are found in an explicit form or are reduced to finding the solution of nonlinear integral equations. The presence of the arbitrary constants in the integral equations that determine these solutions provide new opportunities for analytical and numerical study of boundary value problems for the received submodels and, thus, for the original model of nonlinear diffusion. For the received invariant submodels, we studied diffusion processes for which at the initial moment of the time at a fixed point is specified as a concentration and its gradient or as a concentration and its velocity. Solving of boundary value problems describing these processes is reduced to the solving of nonlinear integral equations. We established the existence and uniqueness of solutions of these boundary value problems under some additional conditions. The obtained results can be used to study the diffusion of substances, diffusion of conduction electrons and other particles, diffusion of physical fields and propagation of heat in inhomogeneous medium, and also to study a turbulence (Leith model, differential approximation to wave turbulence)
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Tree mortality submodels drive simulated long-term forest dynamics: assessing 15 models from the stand to global scale
Models are pivotal for assessing future forest dynamics under the impacts of changing climate and management practices, incorporating representations of tree growth, mortality, and regeneration. Quantitative studies on the importance of mortality submodels are scarce. We evaluated 15 dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) regarding their sensitivity to different formulations of tree mortality under different degrees of climate change. The set of models comprised eight DVMs at the stand scale, three at the landscape scale, and four typically applied at the continental to global scale. Some incorporate empirically derived mortality models, and others are based on experimental data, whereas still others are based on theoretical reasoning. Each DVM was run with at least two alternative mortality submodels. Model behavior was evaluated against empirical time series data, and then, the models were subjected to different scenarios of climate change. Most DVMs matched empirical data quite well, irrespective of the mortality submodel that was used. However, mortality submodels that performed in a very similar manner against past data often led to sharply different trajectories of forest dynamics under future climate change. Most DVMs featured high sensitivity to the mortality submodel, with deviations of basal area and stem numbers on the order of 10–40% per century under current climate and 20–170% under climate change. The sensitivity of a given DVM to scenarios of climate change, however, was typically lower by a factor of two to three. We conclude that (1) mortality is one of the most uncertain processes when it comes to assessing forest response to climate change, and (2) more data and a better process understanding of tree mortality are needed to improve the robustness of simulated future forest dynamics. Our study highlights that comparing several alternative mortality formulations in DVMs provides valuable insights into the effects of process uncertainties on simulated future forest dynamics.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Software life cycle dynamic simulation model: The organizational performance submodel
The submodel structure of a software life cycle dynamic simulation model is described. The software process is divided into seven phases, each with product, staff, and funding flows. The model is subdivided into an organizational response submodel, a management submodel, a management influence interface, and a model analyst interface. The concentration here is on the organizational response model, which simulates the performance characteristics of a software development subject to external and internal influences. These influences emanate from two sources: the model analyst interface, which configures the model to simulate the response of an implementing organization subject to its own internal influences, and the management submodel that exerts external dynamic control over the production process. A complete characterization is given of the organizational response submodel in the form of parameterized differential equations governing product, staffing, and funding levels. The parameter values and functions are allocated to the two interfaces.
Tausworthe, Robert C.↗
The MESSy aerosol submodel MADE3 (v2.0b): description and a box model test
We introduce MADE3 (Modal Aerosol Dynamics model for Europe, adapted for global applications, 3rd generation; version: MADE3v2.0b), an aerosol dynamics submodel for application within the MESSy framework (Modular Earth Submodel System). MADE3 builds on the predecessor aerosol submodels MADE and MADE-in. Its main new features are the explicit representation of coarse mode particle interactions both with other particles and with condensable gases, and the inclusion of hydrochloric acid (HCl) / chloride (Cl) partitioning between the gas and condensed phases. The aerosol size distribution is represented in the new submodel as a superposition of nine lognormal modes: one for fully soluble particles, one for insoluble particles, and one for mixed particles in each of three size ranges (Aitken, accumulation, and coarse mode size ranges). In order to assess the performance of MADE3 we compare it to its predecessor MADE and to the much more detailed particle-resolved aerosol model PartMC-MOSAIC in a box model simulation of an idealised marine boundary layer test case. MADE3 and MADE results are very similar, except in the coarse mode, where the aerosol is dominated by sea spray particles. Cl is reduced in MADE3 with respect to MADE due to the HCl / Cl partitioning that leads to Cl removal from the sea spray aerosol in our test case. Additionally, the aerosol nitrate concentration is higher in MADE3 due to the condensation of nitric acid on coarse mode particles. MADE3 and PartMC-MOSAIC show substantial differences in the fine particle size distributions (sizes ≲ 2 μm) that could be relevant when simulating climate effects on a global scale. Nevertheless, the agreement between MADE3 and PartMC-MOSAIC is very good when it comes to coarse particle size distributions (sizes ≳ 2 μm), and also in terms of aerosol composition. Finally, considering these results and the well-established ability of MADE in reproducing observed aerosol loadings and composition, MADE3 seems suitable for application within a global model.
Kaiser, J. C.↗
The Messy Aerosol Submodel MADE3 (v2.0b): Description and a Box Model Test
We introduce MADE3 (Modal Aerosol Dynamics model for Europe, adapted for global applications, 3rd generation), an aerosol dynamics submodel for application within the MESSy framework (Modular Earth Submodel System). MADE3 builds on the predecessor aerosol submodels MADE and MADE-in. Its main new features are the explicit representation of coarse particle interactions both with other particles and with condensable gases, and the inclusion of hydrochloric acid (HCl)chloride (Cl) partitioning between the gas and condensed phases. The aerosol size distribution is represented in the new submodel as a superposition of nine lognormal modes: one for fully soluble particles, one for insoluble particles, and one for mixed particles in each of three size ranges (Aitken, accumulation, and coarse mode size ranges). In order to assess the performance of MADE3 we compare it to its predecessor MADE and to the much more detailed particle-resolved aerosol model PartMC-MOSAIC in a box model simulation of an idealized marine boundary layer test case. MADE3 and MADE results are very similar, except in the coarse mode, where the aerosol is dominated by sea spray particles. Cl is reduced in MADE3 with respect to MADE due to the HClCl partitioning that leads to Cl removal from the sea spray aerosol in our test case. Additionally, aerosol nitrate concentration is higher in MADE3 due to the condensation of nitric acid on coarse particles. MADE3 and PartMC- MOSAIC show substantial differences in the fine particle size distributions (sizes about 2 micrometers) that could be relevant when simulating climate effects on a global scale. Nevertheless, the agreement between MADE3 and PartMC-MOSAIC is very good when it comes to coarse particle size distribution, and also in terms of aerosol composition. Considering these results and the well-established ability of MADE in reproducing observed aerosol loadings and composition, MADE3 seems suitable for application within a global model.
Mixing state↗
Evaporation Submodel Development for Volume of Fluid (eVOF) Method Applicable to Spray-Wall Interaction Including Film Characteristics with Validation at High Pressure and Temperature Conditions
Internal combustion engines have seen a great evolution over the last several decades through application of high pressure direct injection, multiple injections, and other technologies to reduced fuel consumption, NOx, and PM. Although combustion systems with advanced injection strategies have been studied extensively, there exists a significant fundamental knowledge gap on the fuel-spray interactions with the piston surface and chamber walls. Advanced computational codes validated with experimental techniques have to be developed for accurate representation of the drop impingement, fuel film formation, and vaporization. Current engine CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) spray models utilize a Lagrangian framework for modeling which lacks critical considerations of the physics pertaining to these interactions and thus requiring extensive parameterization, tuning and validation. The team from Michigan Technological University, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, and Argonne National Laboratory is composed of experts in sprays, combustion, engines and CFD with a wide spectrum of knowledge including specific expertise in the area under consideration. In the proposed work, a VOF (Volume of Fluid) modeling approach has been adopted for the spray-wall interaction, film formation and spreading, and vaporization. With the inclusion of a vaporization submodel, a more predictive and accurate simulation of the spray-film was performed without extensive need of parameterization and tuning. Extensive experimentation of the spray-wall interaction under the range of conditions matching the thermodynamic and surface temperatures that occur in diesel and gasoline engines were conducted to validate the SWI submodels and for development of the evaporation submodel, which has been implemented in the flow solver.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Analysis of Composite Skin-Stiffener Debond Specimens Using a Shell/3D Modeling Technique and Submodeling
The application of a shell/3D modeling technique for the simulation of skin/stringer debond in a specimen subjected to tension and three-point bending was studied. The global structure was modeled with shell elements. A local three-dimensional model, extending to about three specimen thicknesses on either side of the delamination front was used to model the details of the damaged section. Computed total strain energy release rates and mixed-mode ratios obtained from shell/3D simulations were in good agreement with results obtained from full solid models. The good correlation of the results demonstrated the effectiveness of the shell/3D modeling technique for the investigation of skin/stiffener separation due to delamination in the adherents. In addition, the application of the submodeling technique for the simulation of skin/stringer debond was also studied. Global models made of shell elements and solid elements were studied. Solid elements were used for local submodels, which extended between three and six specimen thicknesses on either side of the delamination front to model the details of the damaged section. Computed total strain energy release rates and mixed-mode ratios obtained from the simulations using the submodeling technique were not in agreement with results obtained from full solid models.
OBrien, T. Kevin↗
Data-assisted combustion simulations with dynamic submodel assignment using random forests
This investigation outlines a data-assisted approach that employs random forest classifiers for local and dynamic submodel assignment in turbulent-combustion simulations. This method is demonstrated in simulations of a single-element GOX/GCH4 rocket combustor; a priori as well as a posteriori assessments are conducted to (i) evaluate the accuracy and adjustability of the classifier for targeting different quantities of interest (QoIs), and (ii) assess improvements, resulting from the data-assisted combustion model assignment, in predicting target QoIs during simulation runtime. Results from the a priori study show that random forests, trained with local flow properties as input variables and combustion model errors as training labels, assign three different combustion models – finite-rate chemistry (FRC), flamelet progress variable (FPV) model, and inert mixing (IM) – with reasonable classification performance even when targeting multiple QoIs. Applications in a posteriori studies demonstrate improved predictions from data-assisted simulations, in temperature and CO mass fraction, when compared with monolithic FPV calculations. An additional a posteriori data-assisted simulation of a modified configuration demonstrates that the present approach can be successfully applied to different configurations, as long as thermophysical behavior can be represented by the training data. Furthermore, these results demonstrate that this data-driven framework holds promise for dynamic combustion submodel assignments in reacting flow simulations.
42 ENGINEERING↗
A comparison of motor submodels in the optimal control model
Properties of several structural variations in the neuromotor interface portion of the optimal control model (OCM) are investigated. For example, it is known that commanding control-rate introduces an open-loop pole at S=O and will generate low frequency phase and magnitude characteristics similar to experimental data. However, this gives rise to unusually high sensitivities with respect to motor and sensor noise-ratios, thereby reducing the models' predictive capabilities. Relationships for different motor submodels are discussed to show sources of these sensitivities. The models investigated include both pseudo motor-noise and actual (system driving) motor-noise characterizations. The effects of explicit proprioceptive feedback in the OCM is also examined. To show graphically the effects of each submodel on system outputs, sensitivity studies are included, and compared to data obtained from other tests.
Lancraft, R. E.↗
Divisible Rigid Groups. II. Stability, Saturation, and Elementary Submodels
A group G is said to be rigid if it contains a normal series G = G{sub 1} > G{sub 2} > . . . > G{sub m} > G{sub m+1} = 1, whose quotients G{sub i}/G{sub i+1} are Abelian and, treated as right ℤ[G/G{sub i}]- modules, are torsion-free. A rigid group G is divisible if elements of the quotient G{sub i}/G{sub i+1} are divisible by nonzero elements of the ring ℤ[G/G{sub i}]. Every rigid group is embedded in a divisible one. Previously, it was stated that the theory 𝔗{sub m} of divisible m-rigid groups is complete. Here, it is proved that this theory is ω-stable. Furthermore, we describe saturated models, study elementary submodels of an arbitrary model, and find a representation for a countable saturated model in the form of a limit group in the Fraïssé system of all finitely generated m-rigid groups. Also, it is proved that the theory 𝔗{sub m} admits quantifier elimination down to a Boolean combination of ∀∃-formulas.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
A Pareto-efficient combustion framework with submodel assignment for predicting complex flame configurations
Not Available
Wu, Hao (ORCID:0000000314266363)↗
Uncertainty Quantification of Delamination Failure within Composite Structures using a Submodel Based Multi-Fidelity Approach.
Abstract not provided.
Hanson, Alexander↗
Parameter estimation for system submodels with limited or missing data using a data-free inference procedure.
Abstract not provided.
Casey, Tiernan↗
Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative: A Case Study in Multi-Scale Modeling and New Challenges
Abstract: Advanced multi-scale modeling and simulation has the potential to dramatically reduce development time, resulting in considerable cost savings. The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative is a partnership among national laboratories, industry and universities that is developing and deploying a suite of multi-scale modeling and simulation tools including basic data submodels, steady-state and dynamic process models, process optimization and uncertainty quantification tools, an advanced dynamic process control framework, high-resolution filtered computational-fluid-dynamic (CFD) submodels, validated high-fidelity device-scale CFD models with quantified uncertainty, and a risk analysis framework. These tools and models enable basic data submodels, including thermodynamics and kinetics, to be used within detailed process models to synthesize and optimize a process. The resulting process informs the development of process control systems and more detailed simulations of potential equipment to improve the design and reduce scale-up risk. Quantification and propagation of uncertainty across scales is an essential part of these tools and models.
42 ENGINEERING↗
A comprehensive numerical investigation on spray models for Direct-Injection Spark-Ignition engines
Gasoline direct-injection spark-ignition (DISI) engines generate a large portion of their unburned hydrocarbon (UHC) and soot emissions during the cold-start phase. A predictive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling framework can be used to understand the physical processes that characterize fuel spray evolution and fuel-film formation at cold start conditions, which can help to reduce engine-out particulate emissions. This study systematically evaluated spray submodels and developed a set of simulation best practices for physical-numerical submodels with the goal of enabling accurate simulations of liquid spray behavior in a DISI engine. Three comprehensive experimental datasets containing free-spray projected liquid volume (PLV), liquid volume fraction (LVF), and near-field X-ray radiography data were used to validate the simulation results and evaluate the spray submodels. Systematic analysis delved into injected parcel distribution, droplet collision, spray breakup, and evaporation via a detailed assessment of the relevant spray submodels. Moreover, the effects of turbulence models and the initial turbulent flow properties on the liquid spray evolution were examined. Based on extensive calibration efforts, a set of simulation best practices for the free spray was developed and validated against the PLV/LVF data. Simulation results indicated that the uniform distribution for parcel initialization, coupled with appropriate droplet collision submodels, provides an improved spray morphology compared to the cluster distribution. The findings also underscored the importance of calibrating the Kelvin-Helmholtz Rayleigh-Taylor (KH-RT) breakup model constants and droplet heat transfer coefficient scaling factor to achieve favorable agreement regarding measured liquid penetration and spray widths. In conclusion, this study marks a substantial stride towards accurately predicting fuel film evolution and soot formation within DISI engine performance.
ECN Spray G↗
Extended behavioral decomposition for estimating ultrahigh reliability
Limitations of some analytic techniques in approximating the reliability of life-critical electronic systems are discussed, and a framework for the specification of recovery and fault-handling submodels is suggested. The framework makes full use of the instantaneous jump theorem by viewing the collection of interfering, premature exits from any fault handling and recovery submodel as defining a new, competing process submodel. This approach allows a greater flexibility in submodel representation, since submodels may contain arbitrary entrance arcs, exit arcs, and competing, interfering transitions with arbitrary destinations. Since the effects of near-coincident faults need not be represented as system failure events, the reliability estimates produced need not be unduly conservative. Comparisons on small models, where exact results can be computed, show substantial improvement in accuracy over earlier techniques. Implementation of the technique in an X-windows-based system, XHARP, is described.
Geist, Robert↗