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At least 19 records

The Presidents' Day cyclone of 18-19 February 1979 - Synoptic overview and analysis of the subtropical jet streak influencing the pre-cyclogenetic period

A detailed examination is undertaken of the subtropical jet (STJ) streak revealed by an analysis of the Presidents' Day cyclone of February 18-19, 1979. During its 24 h period, the STJ's flow became increasingly supergeostrophic and apparently unbalanced, while ageostrophic wind speeds increased to more than 30 m/sec in association with a significant cross-contour component, directed toward lower values of the Montgomery streamfunction, as the flow along the STJ became more divergent with time. These phenomena are linked to the increasing confluence in the entrance region of the jet streak and the decreasing wavelength of the trough-ridge system in which the jet streak was embedded. The upper level divergence and upward vertical motion near the axis of the STJ are found to be important factors in the development of the cyclone's first area of heavy snow.

Uccellini, L. W.↗

Replicating the Hadley Cell Edge and Subtropical Jet Latitude Disconnect in Idealized Atmospheric Models

Recent work has shown that variability in the subtropical jet's (STJ) latitude, ϕSTJ, is not coupled to that of the Hadley cell (HC) edge, ϕHC, but the robustness of this disconnect has not been examined in detail. Here, we use meteorological reanalysis products, comprehensive climate models, and an idealized atmospheric model to determine the necessary processes for a disconnect between ϕHC and ϕSTJ in the Northern Hemisphere's December–January–February season. We find that a decoupling can occur in a dry general circulation model, indicating that large-scale dynamical processes are sufficient to reproduce the metrics' relationship. It is therefore not reliant on explicit variability in the zonal structure, convection, or radiation. Rather, the disconnect requires a sufficiently realistic climatological basic state. Further, we confirm that the robust disconnect between ϕSTJ and ϕHC across the model hierarchy reveals their differing sensitivities to midlatitude eddy momentum fluxes; ϕHC is consistently coupled to the latitude of maximum eddy momentum flux, but ϕSTJ is not.

Molly E. Menzel↗

Transient response of the Southern Hemisphere subtropical jet to tropical forcing

GCM simulations and data for the August 6-8, 1979 period are used to investigate the effect of tropical latent heat release in accelerations of the Southern Hemisphere subtropical jet. The analysis indicates that the jet accelerations were due both to external and internal Rossby modes, with somewhat stronger contributions from the external mode. The case study and GCM results suggest that divergent circulations which project mostly into inertia-gravity waves react to changes in latent heat release in 1-2 days, that the impact in subtropical latitudes to latent heat release is felt in 2-4 days, and that this impact becomes fully established after about 6 days.

Nogues-Paegle, Julia↗

Analysis of Diabatic Heating During FGGE

The objective is to examine the maintenance of momentum and thermal fields in the Southern Hemisphere and the diabatic heating and generation of available potential energy of the entire global atmosphere. The data generated by the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) III-b analysis for SOP1 and SOP2 are used for this effort. It is observed that the atmospheric circulation of the Southern Hemisphere exhibits a double jet structure (subtropical jet and polar jet) in winter and a single jet in summer during the FGGE year. The geographic distribution of standard deviation in the height field at 500 mb indicates that the major eddy activities occur in the downstream side of the polar jet and poleward side of the subtropic jet in winter. However, the major eddy activites go hand-in-hand with the jet stream in summer. The momentum transport is essentially carried out by the transient eddies in both seasons. The distribution of the temperature field is more axisymmetric in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere. The sensible heat is mainly transported poleward by transient eddies along the strong baroclinic zone where the jet streams are located. In other seasons, it is shown from the geographic distribution of the divergence of transient eddy sensible heat flux that the Antarctic continent acts as a heat sink to consume the sensible heat converged toward the polar area from the middle and low latitudes.

Chen, T. C.↗

The subtropical mesospheric jet observed by the Nimbus 7 Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere

Nimbus 7 Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere observations of wave-mean flow interactions in the winter 1978-1979 middle atmosphere are surveyed, extending up to 0.05 mbar. These observations describe the evolution of the subtropical mesospheric jet and its polar mixed layer. Quasi-steady mean wind patterns are disrupted by three transitions in this winter: one primarily affecting the mesosphere (December 15, 1978), a minor warming affecting both regions (January 26-February 8, 1979), and a major warming largely confined to the stratosphere (February 22, 1979). The zonally averaged flow is barotropically unstable in the wings of the subtropical mesospheric jet. All the major decelerations of the mean flow are correlated with D(F), the body force per unit mass directly attributable to planetary Rossby waves, indicating that these waves make a significant contribution to the momentum budget in the lower half of the mesosphere.

Dunkerton, T. J.↗

A report on the upper-level wind conditions preceding and during the Shuttle Challenger (STS 51L) explosion

The prelaunch, launch, and postlaunch synoptic-scale weather conditions on January 28, 1986 are described. Particular consideration is given to upper-level jet streams, vertical wind shear, and the possible effect of shear-induced turbulence on Cape Canaveral at the time of the Shuttle launch. General data revealing the relations between wind shear and turbulence and jet streams are discussed. The NWS operational and surface radiosonde data, visible and IR GOES imagery, and total ozone data obtained from TOMS on Nimbus-7 are analyzed. Numerical simulations of the weather conditions were conducted. The simulations and observational data are compared, and the data reveal the juxtaposition of two distinct jet-stream systems (a polar front jet and a subtropical jet) over north-central Florida the morning of the launch. Recommendations for improving the observing system at Cape Canaveral are discussed.

Uccellini, Louis W.↗

Dust Episodes in Hong Kong (South China) and their Relationship with the Sharav and Mongolian Cyclones and Jet Streams

The study presented in this paper analyses two dust episodes in Hong Kong, one occurring in March 2006 and the other on 22 March 2010. The latter is the worst dust episode on Hong Kong record. The focus is on the relationship between the dust episodes and the Sharav/Mongolian cyclones and jet streams. The 16 March 2006 episode is traceable to a continental-scale Saharan dust outbreak of 5-9 March 2006 caused by the cold front of an East Mediterranean Sharav cyclone arriving at north-west Africa on 5 March 2006. The eastward movement of the cyclone along the North African coast is clearly illustrated in the geopotential height contours. Simulations by the chemistry transport model GOCART provide a visible evidence of the transport as well as an estimate of contributions from the Sahara to the aerosol concentration levels in Hong Kong. The transport simulations suggest that the dust is injected to the polar jet north of the Caspian Sea, while it is transported eastward simultaneously by the more southerly subtropical jet. The major source of dust for Hong Kong is usually the Gobi desert. Despite the effect of remote sources, the 16 March 2006 dust episode was still mainly under the influence of the Mongolian cyclone cold fronts. In the recent episode of 22 March 2010, the influence of the Mongolian cyclone predominated as well. It appears that the concurrent influence of the Sharav and Mongolian cyclones on Hong Kong and East Asia is not a common occurrence. Besides transporting dusts from non-East Asian sources to Hong Kong and East Asia, the strong subtropical jet on 21 March 2010 (i.e. 1 day prior to the major dust episode) is believed to have strengthened an easterly monsoon surge to South China causing the transport of voluminous dusts to Taiwan and Hong Kong the following day.

Lee, Y. C.↗

Jet stream winds - Comparisons of analyses with independent aircraft data over Southwest Asia

Cruise-level wind data from commercial aircraft are obtained, and these data are compared with operational jet stream analyses over southwest Asia, an area of limited conventional data. Results from an ensemble of 11 cases during January 1989 and individual cases during December 1988-March 1989 are presented. The key results are: (1) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Meteorological Center, and United Kingdom Meteorological Office analyses of the subtropical jet in southwest Asia are 11 percent, 17 percent, and 17 percent weaker, respectively, than aircraft observations; (2) analyzed poleward shears range up to 1 f (0.00007/s) compared with up to 3 f (0.00021/s) in the aircraft observations where f is the local Coriolis parameters; (3) the ECMWF errors are largest at the base of the jet; (4) the mean ECMWF core location is latitudinally correct but has an rms latitude variance of 1.5 deg; (5) isolated erroneous radiosondes produce unmeteorological structures in the analyzed subtropical jet stream; and (6) the increased utilization of automated aircraft reports is likely to produce a spurious secular increase in the apparent strength of the jets. The magnitude and spatial extent of the errors seen are near limits of current GCM resolution (100 km) but should be resolvable. The results imply that studies of GCM systematic jet stream wind errors in weather and climate forecasts must be interpreted with caution in this region.

Tenenbaum, J.↗

On the establishment of stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere winter

The establishment of stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere winter is investigated using stationary and time-dependent linear primitive equation models. Confirming the results of Nigam and Lindzen, we find that small displacements of the subtropical jet can cause significant changes in the stationary-wave response. The time scale for stationary establishment is found to be on the order of 5 days, both in the troposphere and in the lower stratosphere. The exception is for a northward shift of the subtropical jet, in which case the establishment of the new stationary solution in the stratosphere occurs on a longer time scale, which is mainly determined by dissipation. Implications for low-frequency atmospheric variability and mid- and long-range weather forecasting are discussed.

Da Silva, Arlindo M.↗

Interaction of the Asian summer monsoon and the Southern Hemisphere

The possible role that divergent circulations emanating from regions of large scale organized convection may have on the rotational motions of the subsiding branch of the resulting overturnings is considered. Correspondence is found between the cross-equatorial flow emanating from regions of organized convection in the Northern Hemisphere, and the subtropical jet in the vicinity of Australia. The difference field also reveals a good correspondence between changes in the meridional gravity wave component and changes in the intensity of maximum zonal wind. The results are consistent with the picture of a local ageostrophic Hadley overturning in the entrance region of subtropical jets, and they show the importance of adequate resolution of tropical divergent modes.

Paegle, Julia N.↗

Connections Between Upper Tropospheric and Lower Stratospheric Circulation Responses to Increased Co 2

There are a myriad of ways atmospheric circulation responds to increased CO 2 . In the troposphere, the region of the tropical upwelling narrows, the Hadley Cells expand, and the upper level subtropical zonal winds that comprise the subtropical jet strengthen. In the stratosphere, the tropical upwelling narrows and strengthens, enhancing the Brewer-Dobson Circulation. Despite the robustness of these projections, dynamical coupling between the features remains unclear. In this study, we analyze output from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE coupled climate model to examine any connection between the upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric circulation by considering the features’ seasonality, hemispheric asymmetry, scaling, and transient response to a broad range of CO 2 forcings. We find that a narrowing and strengthening of upper tropospheric upwelling occurs with a strengthening of the subtropical jet. There is also a narrowing and strengthening of lower stratospheric upwelling that is related to an equatorward shift in critical latitude for wave breaking and the associated strengthening of the subtropical lower stratosphere’s zonal winds. However, the stratospheric responses display different seasonal, hemispheric, and transient patterns than those in the troposphere, indicating independent circulation changes between the two domains.

Molly E. Menzel↗

A Case Study of the Impact of AIRS Temperature Retrievals on Numerical Weather Prediction

Large errors in numerical weather prediction are often associated with explosive cyclogenesis. Most studes focus on the under-forecasting error, i.e. cases of rapidly developing cyclones which are poorly predicted in numerical models. However, the over-forecasting error (i.e., to predict an explosively developing cyclone which does not occur in reality) is a very common error that severely impacts the forecasting skill of all models and may also present economic costs if associated with operational forecasting. Unnecessary precautions taken by marine activities can result in severe economic loss. Moreover, frequent occurrence of over-forecasting can undermine the reliance on operational weather forecasting. Therefore, it is important to understand and reduce the prdctions of extreme weather associated with explosive cyclones which do not actually develop. In this study we choose a very prominent case of over-forecasting error in the northwestern Pacific. A 960 hPa cyclone develops in less than 24 hour in the 5-day forecast, with a deepening rate of about 30 hPa in one day. The cyclone is not versed in the analyses and is thus a case of severe over-forecasting. By assimilating AIRS data, the error is largely eliminated. By following the propagation of the anomaly that generates the spurious cyclone, it is found that a small mid-tropospheric geopotential height negative anomaly over the northern part of the Indian subcontinent in the initial conditions, propagates westward, is amplified by orography, and generates a very intense jet streak in the subtropical jet stream, with consequent explosive cyclogenesis over the Pacific. The AIRS assimilation eliminates this anomaly that may have been caused by erroneous upper-air data, and represents the jet stream more correctly. The energy associated with the jet is distributed over a much broader area and as a consequence a multiple, but much more moderate cyclogenesis is observed.

Reale, O.↗

A multisensor analysis of Nimbus-5 data recorded on 22 January 1973

The Nimbus 5 meteorological satellite has a full complement of radiation sensors. Data from these sensors were analyzed and intercompared for orbits 569 and 570. The electrically-scanning microwave radiometer (19.35-GHz region) delineated rain areas over the ocean off the U.S. east coast, in good agreement with radar imagery, and permitted the estimation of rainfall rates in this region. Residual ground water, from abnormal rainfall in the lower Mississippi Valley, was indicated under clear sky conditions by soil brightness temperature values in the Nimbus 5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer and U.S. Air Force Data Acquisition and Processing Program infrared data. The temperature-humidity infrared radiometer (6.7 micron and 11 micron) showed the height and spatial configuration of frontal clouds along the east coast and outlined the confluence of a polar jet stream with a broad subtropical jet stream along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Temperature profiles from three vertical temperature sounders are found to be in good agreement with related radiosonde ascents along orbit 569 from the subtropics to the Arctic Circle.

Allison, L. J.↗

Jet stream velocity errors in general circulation models

The longitude and time dependence of excessive wind speed errors above subtropical jets in current GCM forecasts is studied for 14 five-day winter forecasts using the NASA Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres fourth-order GCM. Several distinct phenomena, which may be divided into four categories, are found to contribute to the excess winds. These categories are: (1) error growth above the jet near the Himalayas; (2) error growth above the jet initiated elsewhere followed by advection; (3) tropical moisture bursts appearing in equatorial regions and migrating northeastward to merge with and distort the jet; and (4) undulatory growth of waves in the meridional component of the jet stream velocity. The results of additional sensitivity studies of the Himalayan region error are also reported.

Tenenbaum, J.↗

Principal modes of intraseasonal variations in atmospheric angular momentum and tropical convection

Five-day National Meteorological Center wind and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data are used here to study the seasonal, intraseasonal variation of angular momentum and its relationship with tropical convection. It is found that the zonally averaged u component and the zonally averaged OLR show pronounced periodicities around 30-60 days. The globally averaged zonal wind at 250 mbar exhibits strong seasonal variation in connection with the expansion and contraction of the easterly and westerly belt. At upper levels this is manifested as the poleward and equatorward migration of the subtropical jet streams. Results show that the 30- to 60-day oscillation in 250 mbar zonal mean wind and OLR can be represented by three basic meridional structures: tropical modes, tropical-subtropical modes, and extratropical modes.

Lau, K.-M.↗