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Results for “superparameterization (or MMF)”

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At least 19 records

Influence of Superparameterization and a Higher-Order Turbulence Closure on Rainfall Bias Over Amazonia in Community Atmosphere Model Version 5

In this work, we evaluate the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) with a higher-order turbulence closure scheme, named Cloud Layers Unified By Binomials (CLUBB), and a Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) with two different microphysics configurations to investigate their influences on rainfall simulations over Southern Amazonia. The two different microphysics configurations in MMF are the one-moment cloud microphysics without aerosol treatment (SAM1MOM) and two-moment cloud microphysics coupled with aerosol treatment (SAM2MOM). Results show that both MMF-SAM2MOM and CLUBB effectively reduce the low biases of rainfall, mainly during the wet season. The CLUBB reduces low biases of humidity in the lower troposphere with further reduced shallow clouds. The latter enables more surface solar flux, leading to stronger convection and more rainfall. MMF, especially MMF-SAM2MOM, unstablizes the atmosphere with more moisture and higher atmospheric temperatures in the atmospheric boundary layer, allowing the growth of more extreme convection and further generating more deep convection. MMF-SAM2MOM significantly increases rainfall in the afternoon, but it does not reduce the early bias of the diurnal rainfall peak; LUBB, on the other hand, delays the afternoon peak time and produces more precipitation in the early morning, due to more realistic gradual transition between shallow and deep convection. MMF appears to be able to realistically capture the observed increase of relative humidity prior to deep convection, especially with its two-moment configuration. In contrast, in CAM5 and CAM5 with CLUBB, occurrence of deep convection in these models appears to be a result of stronger heating rather than higher relative humidity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Coupled Climate Simulations With E3SM‐MMF

Simulations of the recent historical period from 1950 to 2014 are conducted with E3SM‐MMF, which uses an embedded 2D cloud resolving model that runs efficiently on GPUs in place of traditional parameterizations for cloud and turbulence. Analysis of the climate and variability reveal several aspects where E3SM‐MMF produces smaller biases compared to E3SMv2, including better agreement with the observed evolution of global mean surface temperature, although the representation of ENSO is too weak and fast. Three idealized abrupt CO 2 experiments were also conducted to assess climate sensitivity and feedbacks. These yield three estimates of effective climate sensitivity (4.38, 5.21, and 6.06 K), with a corresponding spread in the shortwave cloud feedbacks. These estimates are on the higher end of sensitivity estimates from CMIP ensembles, and the spread indicates substantial state‐dependent feedbacks. These results demonstrate how multiscale modeling framework (MMF) models can be used for climate relevant experiments and projections by leveraging modern GPU enabled computational platforms. The unique qualities of E3SM‐MMF shown in previous literature are largely still present, but various instances of reduced biases suggest that MMF models have utility in improving future projections.

E3SM↗

Resolving Low Cloud Feedbacks Globally With E3SM High‐Res MMF: Agreement With LES but Stronger Shortwave Effects

This study investigates low cloud feedback in a warmer climate using global simulations from the High-Resolution Multi-scale Modeling Framework (HR-MMF), which explicitly simulates small-scale eddies globally. Two 5-year simulations—one with present-day sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and a second with SSTs warmed uniformly by 4 K—reveal a positive global shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE = 0.3 W/m 2 /K), comparable to estimates from CMIP models. As the climate warms, significant reductions in low cloud cover occur over stratocumulus regions. This study is the first attempt to compare HR-MMF results with predictions from idealized large-eddy simulations from the CGILS intercomparison. Despite different underlying assumptions, we find qualitative agreement in SWCRE and inversion height changes between HR-MMF and CGILS predictions. This suggests reasonable credibility for the CGILS framework in predicting cloud responses under the out-of-sample conditions found in HR-MMF. However, the HR-MMF exhibits stronger SWCRE changes than predicted by CGILS. We explore potential causes for this discrepancy, examining variations in cloud-controlling factors (CCFs) and cloud conditions. Our results show a fairly homogeneous SWCRE response, with little systematic variation tied to the variations in CCFs. This reveals a dominant role for SST forcing in modulating SWCRE.

boundary-layer clouds↗

Predicting the effectiveness of different mulching techniques in reducing post-fire runoff and erosion at plot scale with the RUSLE, MMF and PESERA models

Highlights: • RUSLE, MMF and PESERA, were able to predict the erosive response in burned areas and their mitigation. • These models can be calibrated at a small spatial scale and provide accurate results at greater spatial scales. • RUSLE model ideal for fast and simple risk assessment. • MMF or PESERA models could be the base of a post-fire management decision tool. Wildfires have become a recurrent threat for many Mediterranean forest ecosystems. The characteristics of the Mediterranean climate, with its warm and dry summers and mild and wet winters, make this a region prone to wildfire occurrence as well as to post-fire soil erosion. This threat is expected to be aggravated in the future due to climate change and land management practices and planning. The wide recognition of wildfires as a driver for runoff and erosion in burnt forest areas has created a strong demand for model-based tools for predicting the post-fire hydrological and erosion response and, in particular, for predicting the effectiveness of post-fire management operations to mitigate these responses. In this study, the effectiveness of two post-fire treatments (hydromulch and natural pine needle mulch) in reducing post-fire runoff and soil erosion was evaluated against control conditions (i.e. untreated conditions), at different spatial scales. The main objective of this study was to use field data to evaluate the ability of different erosion models: (i) empirical (RUSLE), (ii) semi-empirical (MMF), and (iii) physically-based (PESERA), to predict the hydrological and erosive response as well as the effectiveness of different mulching techniques in fire-affected areas. The results of this study showed that all three models were reasonably able to reproduce the hydrological and erosive processes occurring in burned forest areas. In addition, it was demonstrated that the models can be calibrated at a small spatial scale (0.5 m{sup 2}) but provide accurate results at greater spatial scales (10 m{sup 2}). From this work, the RUSLE model seems to be ideal for fast and simple applications (i.e. prioritization of areas-at-risk) mainly due to its simplicity and reduced data requirements. On the other hand, the more complex MMF and PESERA models would be valuable as a base of a possible tool for assessing the risk of water contamination in fire-affected water bodies and for testing different land management scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Convective Momentum Transport and Its Impact on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation in E3SM‐MMF

Abstract Convective momentum transport (CMT) is the process of vertical redistribution of horizontal momentum by small‐scale turbulent flows from moist convection. Traditional general circulation models (GCMs) and their multiscale modeling framework (MMF) versions poorly represent CMT due to insufficient information of subgrid‐scale flows at each GCM grid. Here the explicit scalar momentum transport (ESMT) scheme for representing CMT is implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model‐Multiscale Modeling Framework (E3SM‐MMF) with embedded 2‐D cloud‐resolving models (CRMs), and verified against E3SM‐MMF simulations with 3‐D CRMs and observations. The results show that representing CMT by ESMT helps reduce climatological mean precipitation model bias over the western Pacific and the ITCZ regions, which is attributed to the weakened mean easterlies over the Pacific. Also, CMT from simulations with 2‐D and 3‐D CRMs impose a similar impact on Kelvin waves by reducing their variability and slowing down their phase speed, but opposite impacts on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) variability. The ESMT scheme readily captures the climatological mean spatial patterns of the zonal and meridional components of CMT and their variability across multiple time scales, but shows some differences in estimating its magnitude. CMT mainly affects the MJO by decelerating its winds in the free troposphere, but accelerates its near‐surface winds. This study serves as a prototype for implementing CMT scheme in the MMF simulations, highlighting its crucial role in reducing model bias in mean state and spatiotemporal variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of Warm and Dry Bias over ARM SGP Site in E3SMv2 and E3SM-MMF

Abstract Many climate models exhibit a dry and warm bias over the central United States during the summer months, including the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and its Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) configuration. Understanding the causes of this bias is important to shine a light on this common model error and reduce the uncertainty in future projections. In this study, we use E3SMv2 and E3SM-MMF to assess how parameterized and resolved convection affect temperature and precipitation biases over the Southern Great Plains site of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program. Both configurations overestimate near-surface temperature and underestimate precipitation at the ARM SGP site. The bias is associated with a lack of low-level clouds during days without precipitation and too much incoming solar radiation causing the surface to warm. Low-level cloud fraction in E3SM-MMF during the nonprecipitating days is lower in comparison to E3SMv2 and observation, consistent with the larger warm bias. We also find that the underestimated precipitation can be characterized as “too frequent, too weak” in E3SMv2 and “too rare, too intense” in E3SM-MMF. These deficiencies conspire to sustain the warm and dry bias over the central United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development and Evaluation of an Explicit Treatment of Aerosol Processes at Cloud Scale Within a Multi‐Scale Modeling Framework (MMF)

Abstract Modeling the aerosol lifecycle in traditional global climate models (GCM) is challenging for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the coarse grid. The multiscale modeling framework (MMF), in which a cloud resolving model replaces conventional parameterizations of cloud processes within each GCM grid column, provides a promising framework to address this challenge. Here we develop a new version of MMF that for the first time treats aerosol processes at cloud scale to improve the aerosol‐cloud interaction representation in the model. We demonstrate that the model with the explicit aerosol treatments shows significant improvements of many aspects of the simulated aerosols compared to the previous version of MMF with aerosols parameterized at the GCM grid scale. The explicit aerosol treatments produce a significant increase of the column burdens of black carbon (BC), primary organic aerosol, and sulfate by up to 40% in many remote regions, a decrease of the sea‐salt aerosol burdens by 40% in remote regions. These differences are caused by the differences in aerosol convective transport and wet removal between these two models. The new model also shows reduced bias of BC surface concentration in North America and BC vertical profiles in the high latitudes. However, the biased‐high BC concentrations in the upper troposphere over the remote Pacific regions remain, requiring further improvements on other process representations (e.g., secondary activation neglected in the model).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of cloud superparameterization on projected daily rainfall intensity climate changes in multiple versions of the Community Earth System Model

Abstract Changes in the character of rainfall are assessed using a holistic set of statistics based on rainfall frequency and amount distributions in climate change experiments with three conventional and superparameterized versions of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM and SPCAM). Previous work has shown that high‐order statistics of present‐day rainfall intensity are significantly improved with superparameterization, especially in regions of tropical convection. Globally, the two modeling approaches project a similar future increase in mean rainfall, especially across the Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and at high latitudes, but over land, SPCAM predicts a smaller mean change than CAM. Changes in high‐order statistics are similar at high latitudes in the two models but diverge at lower latitudes. In the tropics, SPCAM projects a large intensification of moderate and extreme rain rates in regions of organized convection associated with the Madden Julian Oscillation, ITCZ, monsoons, and tropical waves. In contrast, this signal is missing in all versions of CAM, which are found to be prone to predicting increases in the amount but not intensity of moderate rates. Predictions from SPCAM exhibit a scale‐insensitive behavior with little dependence on horizontal resolution for extreme rates, while lower resolution (∼2°) versions of CAM are not able to capture the response simulated with higher resolution (∼1°). Moderate rain rates analyzed by the “amount mode” and “amount median” are found to be especially telling as a diagnostic for evaluating climate model performance and tracing future changes in rainfall statistics to tropical wave modes in SPCAM.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Global Effects of Superparameterization on Hydrothermal Land‐Atmosphere Coupling on Multiple Timescales

Abstract Many conventional General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the Global Land‐Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE) tend to produce what is now recognized as overly strong land‐atmosphere (L‐A) coupling. We investigate the effects of cloud Superparameterization (SP) on L‐A coupling on timescales beyond diurnal where it has been recently shown to have a favorable muting effect hydrologically. Using the Community Atmosphere Model v3.5 (CAM3.5) and its Superparameterized counterpart SPCAM3.5, we conducted soil moisture interference experiments following the GLACE and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) protocols. The results show that, on weekly‐to‐subseasonal timescales, SP also mutes hydrologic L‐A coupling. This is detectable globally, and happens through the evapotranspiration‐precipitation segment. But on seasonal timescales, SP does not exhibit detectable effects on hydrologic L‐A coupling. Two robust regional effects of SP on thermal L‐A coupling have also been explored. Over the Arabian Peninsula, SP reduces thermal L‐A coupling through a straightforward control by mean rainfall reduction. More counterintuitively, over the Southwestern US and Northern Mexico, SP enhances the thermal L‐A coupling in a way that is independent of rainfall and soil moisture. This signal is associated with a systematic and previously unrecognized effect of SP that produces an amplified Bowen ratio, and is detectable in multiple SP model versions and experiment designs. In addition to amplifying the present‐day Bowen ratio, SP is found to amplify the climate sensitivity of Bowen ratio as well, which likely plays a role in influencing climate change predictions at the L‐A interface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global Microphysical Sensitivity of Superparameterized Precipitation Extremes

Abstract A recent study found statistically significant differences in extreme precipitation distributions over the contiguous United States (CONUS) when changing the microphysics scheme in a superparameterized global climate model. Here, we repeat the analysis globally and similarly find that differences are widespread when varying the number of predicted moments in the microphysics parameterization, but not when comparing variants of the double‐moment scheme. However, contrary to the previous study in which differences largely disappeared over CONUS when 5‐day simulations were conducted, we found that the signal in these shorter integrations remains within the tropics, implying a direct local effect of microphysics on precipitation extremes in these regions. The effect on precipitation is traced back to changes in vertical velocity profiles changes that are then amplified in the climatological simulations compared to the 5‐day ones. Finally, the superparameterized extremes, regardless of the microphysics scheme, are shown to be larger than those from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project One‐Degree Daily data set and generally smaller than those from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 data set.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Toward low‐cloud‐permitting cloud superparameterization with explicit boundary layer turbulence

Abstract Systematic biases in the representation of boundary layer (BL) clouds are a leading source of uncertainty in climate projections. A variation on superparameterization (SP) called “ultraparameterization” (UP) is developed, in which the grid spacing of the cloud‐resolving models (CRMs) is fine enough (250 × 20 m) to explicitly capture the BL turbulence, associated clouds, and entrainment in a global climate model capable of multiyear simulations. UP is implemented within the Community Atmosphere Model using 2° resolution (∼14,000 embedded CRMs) with one‐moment microphysics. By using a small domain and mean‐state acceleration, UP is computationally feasible today and promising for exascale computers. Short‐duration global UP hindcasts are compared with SP and satellite observations of top‐of‐atmosphere radiation and cloud vertical structure. The most encouraging improvement is a deeper BL and more realistic vertical structure of subtropical stratocumulus (Sc) clouds, due to stronger vertical eddy motions that promote entrainment. Results from 90 day integrations show climatological errors that are competitive with SP, with a significant improvement in the diurnal cycle of offshore Sc liquid water. Ongoing concerns with the current UP implementation include a dim bias for near‐coastal Sc that also occurs less prominently in SP and a bright bias over tropical continental deep convection zones. Nevertheless, UP makes global eddy‐permitting simulation a feasible and interesting alternative to conventionally parameterized GCMs or SP‐GCMs with turbulence parameterizations for studying BL cloud‐climate and cloud‐aerosol feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microphysical Sensitivity of Superparameterized Precipitation Extremes in the Contiguous United States Due to Feedbacks on Large-Scale Circulation

Superparameterized (SP) global climate models have been shown to better simulate various features of precipitation relative to conventional models, including its diurnal cycle as well as its extremes. While various studies have focused on the effect of differing microphysics parameterizations on precipitation within limited-area cloud-resolving models, we examine here the effect on contiguous U.S. (CONUS) extremes in a global SP model. We vary the number of predicted moments for hydrometeor distributions, the character of the rimed ice species, and the representation of raindrop self-collection and breakup. Using a likelihood ratio test and accounting for the effects of multiple hypothesis testing, we find that there are some regional differences, particularly during spring and summer in the Southwest and the Midwest, in both the current climate and a warmer climate with uniformly increased sea surface temperatures. These differences are most statistically significant and widespread when the number of moments is changed. To determine whether these results are due to (fast) local effects of the different microphysics or the (slower) ensuing feedback on the large-scale atmospheric circulation, we run a series of short, 5-day simulations initialized from reanalysis data. We find that the differences largely disappear in these runs and therefore infer that the different parameterizations impact precipitation extremes indirectly via the large-scale circulation. Finally, we compare the present-day results with hourly rain gauge data and find that SP underestimates extremes relative to observations regardless of which microphysics scheme is used given a fixed model configuration and resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predictive Proxies of Present and Future Lightning in a Superparameterized Model

Abstract A superparameterized climate model is used to assess the global performance of several previously proposed proxies for lightning. In particular, predictors incorporating hydrometeor (ice, graupel) profiles and convective vertical velocities are compared to observations, then used to estimate changes in flash rates with global warming. The choice of microphysics parameterization is also investigated, with all predictors showing higher correlations with Lightning Imaging Sensor/Optical Transient Detector observations when using a 2‐moment scheme compared to a 1‐moment representation. All proxies generally agree in their response to warming over tropical land, with notable decreases in Africa, the Middle East, and northern South America, but disagree over oceans and the midlatitudes. The product of convective available potential energy and precipitation predicts increases over these latter areas, as do the 2‐moment ice‐based proxies, while those of the 1‐moment model tend to show decreases, highlighting the importance of cloud microphysics when using climate models to simulate lightning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mesoscale Convective Systems in a Superparameterized E3SM Simulation at High Resolution

Accurately representing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is crucial to simulating the energy and water cycles in global climate models. Using a novel MCS identification and tracking algorithm applied to observations and model simulations, we evaluate how well the Energy Exascale Earth System Model simulates MCSs over the central US. Simulations performed by E3SM at 25 km grid spacing with (SP-E3SM) and without (E3SM) superparameterization are compared and evaluated against observations using multiple metrics highlighting important MCS characteristics. Compared to E3SM, SP-E3SM better simulates MCS number and MCS precipitation amount, diurnal cycle, propagation, and the probability distribution of precipitation rate in both spring and summer. The improvement from SP is partly contributed by improvement in simulating the large-scale environments, featuring enhanced atmospheric low-level moisture and larger moisture transport to the central US relative to E3SM. However, SP-E3SM still underestimates MCS precipitation amount, particularly in summer. This underestimation is closely related to the negative bias in MCS precipitation intensity, although the drier environments simulated during summer also contributes to underestimation of MCS frequency. Without SP, the larger bias in MCS precipitation amount is closely related to the negative bias in MCS frequency, while the substantial dry bias in the large-scale environments also contributes to underestimation of MCS intensity. Our results suggest that SP improves MCS simulation by improving modeling of the large-scale environments and convection initiation, which are both major limiting factors in E3SM even at 25 km grid spacing where deep convection is represented by a cumulus parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reduced African Easterly Wave Activity with Quadrupled CO 2 in the Superparameterized CESM

African easterly wave (AEW) activity is examined in quadrupled CO 2 experiments with the superparameterized CESM (SP-CESM). The variance of 2–10-day filtered precipitation increases with warming over the West African monsoon region, suggesting increased AEW activity. The perturbation enstrophy budget is used to investigate the dynamic signature of AEW activity. The northern wave track becomes more active associated with enhanced baroclinicity, consistent with previous studies. The southern track exhibits a surprising reduction of wave activity associated with less frequent occurrence of weak waves and a slight increase in the occurrence of strong waves. These changes are connected to changes in the profile of vortex stretching and tilting that can be understood as interconnected consequences of increased static stability from the lapse rate response, weak temperature gradient balance, and the fixed anvil temperature hypothesis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Superparameterized CAM in Response to Warmer SSTs

Subdaily temperature and precipitation extremes in response to warmer SSTs are investigated on a global scale using the superparameterized (SP) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), in which a cloud-resolving model is embedded in each CAM grid column to simulate convection explicitly. Two 10-yr simulations have been performed using present climatological sea surface temperature (SST) and perturbed SST climatology derived from the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Compared with the conventional CAM, SP-CAM simulates colder temperatures and more realistic intensity distribution of precipitation, especially for heavy precipitation. The temperature and precipitation extremes have been defined by the 99th percentile of the 3-hourly data. For temperature, the changes in the warm and cold extremes are generally consistent between CAM and SP-CAM, with larger changes in warm extremes at low latitudes and larger changes in cold extremes at mid-to-high latitudes. For precipitation, CAM predicts a uniform increase of frequency of precipitation extremes regardless of the rain rate, while SP-CAM predicts a monotonic increase of frequency with increasing rain rate and larger change of intensity for heavier precipitation. The changes in 3-hourly and daily temperature extremes are found to be similar; however, the 3-hourly precipitation extremes have a significantly larger change than daily extremes. The Clausius–Clapeyron scaling is found to be a relatively good predictor of zonally averaged changes in precipitation extremes over midlatitudes but not as good over the tropics and subtropics. The changes in precipitable water and large-scale vertical velocity are equally important to explain the changes in precipitation extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗