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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Unsupervised Clustering and Supervised Regression Learning to Select High Temperature Oxidation-Resistant Materials

High temperature oxidation and corrosion degradation mechanisms dictate the lifetime of materials critical to energy production. The combination of modeling and experimental approaches such as machine learning (ML) and data analytics, with sufficient experimental data, can accelerate the development of new materials while limiting its cost. In the present work, ML will be applied to two high temperature oxidation data libraries (Oak Ridge National Laboratory and National Air and Space Administration) that comprised of about 5000 mass change sample datasheets for a variety of materials and temperatures in dry air and air + 10 % H2O. A python code was developed to prepare the data for machine learning by collecting and formatting oxidation rate constants, alloy compositions and environment of exposure into a single data frame. Scikit-learn library and Statistics and Machine Learning Toolbox within MathWorks were then used to perform unsupervised clustering and supervised regression learning. The impact of dataset distribution on the performance of the developed ML models was evaluated. Potential strategies to improve the predictions and enhance extrapolative capability of the previously trained model were investigated.

Romedenne, Marie [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000317936561)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Supervised machine learning-based multivariate regression of parallel closures for a high-collisionality deuterium-carbon plasma

Many plasmas of interest in laboratory experiments and space consist of multiple ion species. In tokamak edge plasmas, for instance, ionized impurities expelled from the vessel wall influence plasma transport. When describing multi-species plasmas using fluid equations, we need accurate closure relations to close the set of fluid equations. In this study, we introduce the development of fitting formulas for parallel closures using supervised machine learning, in conjunction with the recent closure theory, considering multi-ion collisions and arbitrary ion temperatures. We apply this approach to a high-collisionality deuterium-carbon plasma and demonstrate its effectiveness. As a result, the machine learning-based method for developing practical and accurate closures can be extended to a wider range of plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spectral Data Fusion From Handheld Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) and X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) Analyzers for Improved Detection of Cerium in a Simulated Dispersal Accident

Here, this work implements a mid-level data fusion methodology on spectral data from handheld X-ray fluorescence and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy analyzers to quantify plutonium surrogate (CeO 2 ) contamination in soil samples for the first time. Spectral data from each analyzer were used independently to train supervised machine learning regressions to predict Ce concentration. Fused features from both data sets were then used to train the same models, comparing prediction performance by evaluating model precision and sensitivity. Fusing principal component scores from the two sensors yielded an order of magnitude improvement in precision and sensitivity of predictions made with an artificial neural network, compared to predictions made by models trained on independent sensor data. As a result, a boosted ensemble trained on the fused spectral features yielded an ideal predictor with root-mean-squared error on the order of 10 –6 and calculated limit of detection order 10 –5 wt %.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

SNM Radiation Signature Classification Using Different Semi-Supervised Machine Learning Models

The timely detection of special nuclear material (SNM) transfers between nuclear facilities is an important monitoring objective in nuclear nonproliferation. Persistent monitoring enabled by successful detection and characterization of radiological material movements could greatly enhance the nuclear nonproliferation mission in a range of applications. Supervised machine learning can be used to signal detections when material is present if a model is trained on sufficient volumes of labeled measurements. However, the nuclear monitoring data needed to train robust machine learning models can be costly to label since radiation spectra may require strict scrutiny for characterization. Therefore, this work investigates the application of semi-supervised learning to utilize both labeled and unlabeled data. As a demonstration experiment, radiation measurements from sodium iodide (NaI) detectors are provided by the Multi-Informatics for Nuclear Operating Scenarios (MINOS) venture at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) as sample data. Anomalous measurements are identified using a method of statistical hypothesis testing. After background estimation, an energy-dependent spectroscopic analysis is used to characterize an anomaly based on its radiation signatures. In the absence of ground-truth information, a labeling heuristic provides data necessary for training and testing machine learning models. Supervised logistic regression serves as a baseline to compare three semi-supervised machine learning models: co-training, label propagation, and a convolutional neural network (CNN). In each case, the semi-supervised models outperform logistic regression, suggesting that unlabeled data can be valuable when training and demonstrating value in semi-supervised nonproliferation implementations.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2023

Combining synchrotron X-ray diffraction, mechanistic modeling and machine learning for in situ subsurface temperature quantification during laser melting

Laser melting, such as that encountered during additive manufacturing, produces extreme gradients of temperature in both space and time, which in turn influence microstructural development in the material. Qualification and model validation of the process itself and the resulting material necessitate the ability to characterize these temperature fields. However, well established means to directly probe the material temperature below the surface of an alloy while it is being processed are limited. To address this gap in characterization capabilities, a novel means is presented to extract subsurface temperature-distribution metrics, with uncertainty, from in situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction measurements to provide quantitative temperature evolution data during laser melting. Temperature-distribution metrics are determined using Gaussian process regression supervised machine-learning surrogate models trained with a combination of mechanistic modeling (heat transfer and fluid flow) and X-ray diffraction simulation. The trained surrogate model uncertainties are found to range from 5 to 15% depending on the metric and current temperature. The surrogate models are then applied to experimental data to extract temperature metrics from an Inconel 625 nickel superalloy wall specimen during laser melting. The maximum temperatures of the solid phase in the diffraction volume through melting and cooling are found to reach the solidus temperature as expected, with the mean and minimum temperatures found to be several hundred degrees less. The extracted temperature metrics near melting are determined to be more accurate because of the lower relative levels of mechanical elastic strains. However, uncertainties for temperature metrics during cooling are increased due to the effects of thermomechanical stress.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Provably Accurate Randomized Sampling Algorithm for Logistic Regression

In statistics and machine learning, logistic regression is a widely-used supervised learning technique primarily employed for binary classification tasks. When the number of observations greatly exceeds the number of predictor variables, we present a simple, randomized sampling-based algorithm for logistic regression problem that guarantees high-quality approximations to both the estimated probabilities and the overall discrepancy of the model. Our analysis builds upon two simple structural conditions that boil down to randomized matrix multiplication, a fundamental and well-understood primitive of randomized numerical linear algebra. We analyze the properties of estimated probabilities of logistic regression when leverage scores are used to sample observations, and prove that accurate approximations can be achieved with a sample whose size is much smaller than the total number of observations. To further validate our theoretical findings, we conduct comprehensive empirical evaluations. Overall, our work sheds light on the potential of using randomized sampling approaches to efficiently approximate the estimated probabilities in logistic regression, offering a practical and computationally efficient solution for large-scale datasets.

Chowdhury, Agniva↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constructing Neural Network Based Models for Simulating Dynamical Systems

Dynamical systems see widespread use in natural sciences like physics, biology, and chemistry, as well as engineering disciplines such as circuit analysis, computational fluid dynamics, and control. For simple systems, the differential equations governing the dynamics can be derived by applying fundamental physical laws. However, for more complex systems, this approach becomes exceedingly difficult. Data-driven modeling is an alternative paradigm that seeks to learn an approximation of the dynamics of a system using observations of the true system. In recent years, there has been an increased interest in applying data-driven modeling techniques to solve a wide range of problems in physics and engineering. Here this article provides a survey of the different ways to construct models of dynamical systems using neural networks. In addition to the basic overview, we review the related literature and outline the most significant challenges from numerical simulations that this modeling paradigm must overcome. Based on the reviewed literature and identified challenges, we provide a discussion on promising research areas.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning inversion of interatomic force constants from single-crystal inelastic neutron scattering

Atomic vibrations govern many macroscopic properties of materials, but experiments to comprehensively probe them remain challenging. Inelastic neutron scattering (INS) is a powerful technique to map phonon dispersions in crystals, especially when leveraging modern time-of-flight (ToF) spectrometers with large detectors. However, efficiently and robustly extracting interatomic force constants (FCs) parameterizing phonon dynamics from experimental spectra remains a bottleneck due to the complexity and high dimensionality of ToF INS datasets. Here, we present a machine learning approach for the direct inversion of FCs from single-crystal INS measurements. The framework leverages synthetic training data generated using universal machine-learned force fields and an efficient physics-based forward model. We benchmark two neural architectures–one emphasizing structured latent representation learning and the other direct, supervised spectral regression–across simulated datasets for two materials under idealized and noisy conditions. The latent-representation model is subsequently applied to experimental single-crystal INS data on germanium. The model is shown to reproduce FCs derived from both first-principles simulations and from iterative optimization, and furthermore achieves reliable inference even from sparse, single-orientation measurements representing short data acquisitions. Analysis of the learned latent space reveals semantically continuous and physically interpretable encodings that support strong cross-domain generalization. By bridging theoretical and experimental domains, we establish a path toward rapid inversion of experimental spectra and data-driven interpretation of temperature-dependent lattice dynamics.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Supervised Dimension Reduction for Scientific Discovery (LDRD QTI Report)

This report summarizes the findings of a four months FY24 Advanced Science & Technology (AS&T) LDRD Quick Targeted Investigation (QTI) project focused on the exploration of supervised dimension reduction approaches based on autoencoders. Autoencoders have been extensively employed in literature for unsupervised learning tasks, however, their use for supervised regression tasks, which are common within scientific applications, has been limited. Motivated by linear dimension reduction strategies like Active Subspaces and Adaptive Basis, we explored the possibility of employing autoencoders to discover a non-linear manifold able to represent the original function in fewer dimensions. In this report, we discuss a neural network architecture and we perform a numerical campaign on several problems ranging from simple two-dimensional functions to a model problem for magnetohydrodynamics in five dimensions. In our preliminary results, we show that the proposed approach is found to be superior to linear dimension reduction strategies in representing the target function even with a single latent variable.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Approach for Spatiotemporal Multivariate Optimization of Environmental Monitoring Sensor Locations

Abstract Long-term environmental monitoring is critical for managing the soil and groundwater at contaminated sites. Recent improvements in state-of-the-art sensor technology, communication networks, and artificial intelligence have created opportunities to modernize this monitoring activity for automated, fast, robust, and predictive monitoring. In such modernization, it is required that sensor locations be optimized to capture the spatiotemporal dynamics of all monitoring variables as well as to make it cost-effective. The legacy monitoring datasets of the target area are important to perform this optimization. In this study, we have developed a machine-learning approach to optimize sensor locations for soil and groundwater monitoring based on ensemble supervised learning and majority voting. For spatial optimization, Gaussian process regression (GPR) is used for spatial interpolation, while the majority voting is applied to accommodate the multivariate temporal dimension. Results show that the algorithms significantly outperform the random selection of the sensor locations for predictive spatiotemporal interpolation. While the method has been applied to a four-dimensional dataset (with two-dimensional space, time, and multiple contaminants), we anticipate that it can be generalizable to higher-dimensional datasets for environmental monitoring sensor location optimization.

Siddiquee, Masudur R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sub-pilot-scale Production of High-Value Products from U.S. Coals

Investigators from the University of Utah, University of Wyoming and Marshall University pursued a program to study the conversion of raw coal to high-value products of carbon fiber and silicon carbide. Team members also developed an initial framework for a data portal that can incorporate laboratory data on coal processing and product quality, and also work with tools for machine learning for data analysis, data visualization and economic assessment. Experimental R&D efforts focused on the conversion of raw coal to coal tar and other byproducts, and the resulting tar intermediates were upgraded to form anisotropic and isotropic pitch materials. These pitch materials were produced from coal using both thermal (pyrolysis) and chemical (mild solvolysis liquefaction) decomposition of raw coal. Four different coals were studied: Utah bituminous coal (Sufco), Wyoming PRB coal (Black Thunder), Illinois bituminous coal (Illinois #6), and West Virginia bituminous coal (Flying Eagle). Both metallurgical-grade coking coals and lower-grade steam coals were investigated, and controlled secondary gas-phase reactions were used during a two-stage pyrolysis process to induce cracking and condensation reactions among the pyrolytic tar species. This approach successfully improved the performance of the lower grade coals for yielding pitch materials, with properties more consistent with a commercial-grade pitch that had previously demonstrated success for quality carbon fiber production. The use of waste plastic materials was also studied, to help improve physical and chemical characteristics of the intermediate tars and final pitch product; in particular, for lowering the pitch softening point to an acceptable level for melt spinning carbon fiber. Mild solvolysis liquefaction was also used as a method for producing pitch for carbon fiber production. As expected, significantly higher pitch yields were obtained using this approach, and waste plastic materials were also successfully used to reduce pitch softening point to an acceptable level. The plastic materials were also utilized to create a solvent for the mild solvolysis process, and this plastic-derived solvent was shown to provide results consistent with more expensive commercial chemical solvents, and could thus avoid the need for costly recovery and recycle of a liquefaction solvent. Additional experimental R&D focused on the production of silicon carbide (β-SiC) from the residual char byproduct from pitch production, and also on the production of carbon fiber from the anisotropic pitch. SiC was successfully synthesized using a mixture of residual char and sandstone at a ratio of 1:1. Reaction temperature and residence time were optimized and yielded a product purity of 81%. For carbon fiber production, the most successful pitch samples were obtained from the mild solvolysis liquefaction approach, combined with the use of a plastic (HDPE)-derived solvent. Fiber properties improved over time as laboratory fiber production methodologies improved, and final yields of carbon fiber were obtained with a diameter of 12.14 ± 1.10 um, Modulus of 173.73 ± 15.25 GPa, and Tensile Strength of 1.04 ± 0.10 GPa. A proof-of-concept Modern Community Research Data Portal (MCRDP) was developed and deployed for coal and coal-derived pitch characterization, with the full support of (i) remote web-based access, (ii) distributed analysis, (iii) interactive visualization and exploration, (iv) shared and long-term data access, (v) advanced query capabilities and (vi) real-time collaboration. The Coal to Products Data Portal “coaltoproducts.org” provides researchers with space to store and share data within a project, tools for analyzing and understanding data for scientific investigation, and the ability to publish data to the broader community for reproducibility. The portal leverages the Material Commons 2.0 (MC) platform developed by the Center for PRedictive Integrated Structural Materials Science (PRISMS) of the University of Michigan, to achieve long-term longevity of data collections and, more importantly, collaborative science. A number of data visualization tools were also assessed and implemented for interrogating the experimental and modeling data. The machine learning portion of this project analyzed datasets from two different coal conversion processes performed on a diverse set of coal samples from both the coal pyrolysis experiments and the solvent liquefaction experiments. The work was initiated by exploring standard regression models on the pyrolysis data, aiming to understand the impact of sample characteristics and processing conditions on key product metrics. Over the course of the project, the focus expanded to include a variety of machine learning tools, delving into both supervised and unsupervised learning methods. Models tested on the pyrolysis data included linear, ridge, lasso, elastic-net, Gaussian process, random forest regression, and AutoSklearn, and the approach was continually refined to enhance predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Similar techniques were applied to the liquefaction data with an additional focus on feature engineering. Along with mesophase content, additional outputs of interest were the pitch yield, softening point, and QI content. Insights derived from these analyses are crucial in determining the factors influencing the quality and yield of coal-derived products. As the work progressed, the research evolved from foundational model comparisons to analyses of random forests, decision paths, and feature importance scores. A thorough market analysis was performed to examine the prospects of coal-based carbon fibers. The best opportunities for coal come from its lower and more stable price relative to petroleum, particularly for subbituminous coals, which is the primary advantage that a coal refinery may have over a petroleum refinery. Before a commercial CTP production facility can be modeled, however, several things need to be understood regarding the nature of the would-be coal refinery. These include the technology to be deployed, the size of facility, the volume(s) of co-product(s), and the waste and emissions profile of the plant. The volume of co-products and waste may be substantial and will require separate market analysis to ensure viability. In the near-term, the importance of coal tar pitch, in the form of carbon pitch, to the aluminum and steel industries is likely to overshadow the alternative use of this material as an input for carbon fiber. The importance of steel and aluminum in building materials, and the need for carbon materials in their manufacturing, will ensure that demand for these products remains for the long run. In addition, carbon fiber may also be the best substitute for steel and aluminum well into the future. While society will eventually be able to shift production of much of its electricity needs to renewables, it will not be able to shift away from fossil fuels for production of high-strength construction and vehicular materials. Demand for carbon fiber is expected to increase quickly, but the volume of carbon fiber and the amount of coal that would be needed to produce even a sizeable share of this market may still be relatively small compared to current coal production. Thus, other coal-based products like graphene, graphite, carbon foams, resins, and carbon-based building products will play important roles in sustaining coal production as coal-fired power generation continues to decline.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decoding diffraction and spectroscopy data with machine learning: A tutorial

This Tutorial provides a step-by-step guide on how to apply supervised machine-learning techniques to analyze diffraction and spectroscopy data. This Tutorial details four models—a reconstruction-focused model, a regression-focused model, a hybrid reconstruction/regression model, and a multimodal model—that use x-ray diffraction profiles and vibrational density of states spectra to predict various microstructural descriptors. In this Tutorial, we cover data pre-processing steps, constructions of the models via dimensionality reduction and regression, training, and analysis of these models. Comparisons of the model’s performance are provided, highlighting the strength and weakness of the various approaches utilized.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using machine learning to predict the correlation of spectra using SDSS magnitudes as an improvement to the Locus Algorithm

The Locus Algorithm is a new technique to improve the quality of differential photometry by optimising the choices of reference stars. At the heart of this algorithm is a routine to assess how good each potential reference star is by comparing its SDSS magnitude values to those of the target star. In this way, the difference in wavelength-dependent effects of the Earth’s atmospheric scattering between target and reference can be minimised. This paper sets out a new way to estimate the quality of each reference star using machine learning. A random subset of stars from SDSS with spectra was chosen. For each one, a suitable reference star, also with a spectrum, was chosen. The correlation between the two spectra in the SDSS r band (between 550 nm and 700 nm) was taken to be the gold-standard measure of how well they match up for differential photometry. The five SDSS magnitude values for each of these stars were used as predictors. A number of supervised machine learning models were constructed on a training set of the stars and were each evaluated on a testing set. The model using Support Vector Regression had the best performance of these models. It was then tested on a final, hold-out, validation set of stars to get an unbiased measure of its performance. With an R 2 of 0.62, the SVR model presents enhanced performance for the Locus Algorithm technique.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sampling-based Sublinear Low-rank Matrix Arithmetic Framework for Dequantizing Quantum Machine Learning

We present an algorithmic framework for quantum-inspired classical algorithms on close-to-low-rank matrices, generalizing the series of results started by Tang’s breakthrough quantum-inspired algorithm for recommendation systems [STOC’19]. Motivated by quantum linear algebra algorithms and the quantum singular value transformation (SVT) framework of Gilyén et al. [STOC’19], we develop classical algorithms for SVT that run in time independent of input dimension, under suitable quantum-inspired sampling assumptions. Our results give compelling evidence that in the corresponding QRAM data structure input model, quantum SVT does not yield exponential quantum speedups. Since the quantum SVT framework generalizes essentially all known techniques for quantum linear algebra, our results, combined with sampling lemmas from previous work, suffice to generalize all prior results about dequantizing quantum machine learning algorithms. In particular, our classical SVT framework recovers and often improves the dequantization results on recommendation systems, principal component analysis, supervised clustering, support vector machines, low-rank regression, and semidefinite program solving. We also give additional dequantization results on low-rank Hamiltonian simulation and discriminant analysis. Our improvements come from identifying the key feature of the quantum-inspired input model that is at the core of all prior quantum-inspired results: ℓ 2 -norm sampling can approximate matrix products in time independent of their dimension. We reduce all our main results to this fact, making our exposition concise, self-contained, and intuitive.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Importance of Being Adaptable: An Exploration of the Power and Limitations of Domain Adaptation for Simulation-Based Inference with Galaxy Clusters

The application of deep machine learning methods in astronomy has exploded in the last decade, with new models showing remarkably improved performance on benchmark tasks. Not nearly enough attention is given to understanding the models' robustness, especially when the test data are systematically different from the training data, or "out of domain." Domain shift poses a significant challenge for simulation-based inference, where models are trained on simulated data but applied to real observational data. In this paper, we explore domain shift and test domain adaptation methods for a specific scientific case: simulation-based inference for estimating galaxy cluster masses from X-ray profiles. We build datasets to mimic simulation-based inference: a training set from the Magneticum simulation, a scatter-augmented training set to capture uncertainties in scaling relations, and a test set derived from the IllustrisTNG simulation. We demonstrate that the Test Set is out of domain in subtle ways that would be difficult to detect without careful analysis. We apply three deep learning methods: a standard neural network (NN), a neural network trained on the scatter-augmented input catalogs, and a Deep Reconstruction-Regression Network (DRRN), a semi-supervised deep model engineered to address domain shift. Although the NN improves results by 17% in the Training Data, it performs 40% worse on the out-of-domain Test Set. Surprisingly, the Scatter-Augmented Neural Network (SANN) performs similarly. While the DRRN is successful in mapping the training and Test Data onto the same latent space, it consistently underperforms compared to a straightforward Yx scaling relation. These results serve as a warning that simulation-based inference must be handled with extreme care, as subtle differences between training simulations and observational data can lead to unforeseen biases creeping into the results.

Ntampaka, Michelle [Baltimore, Space Telescope Sci↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning for Mapping Multipactor Susceptibility in RF Systems: Capabilities and Generalization Constraints

Multipactor is a surface-driven electron avalanche phenomenon that degrades the performance and reliability of radio-frequency (RF) systems in particle accelerator and vacuum electronics applications. Multipactor behavior in a given device structure is conventionally assessed through susceptibility charts, which provide a parameter-space characterization of the instability. In this work, we assess the capabilities of machine-learning (ML) models to learn and predict such susceptibility charts and analyze the constraints governing their generalization across materials. Using a simulation-derived dataset spanning six distinct secondary-electron-yield material profiles in a canonical two-surface planar geometry, we train supervised regression models and artificial neural networks to predict the time-averaged electron growth rate, δavg, across the relevant parameter space. Model performance is evaluated using metrics that explicitly probe the structure of susceptibility charts, including Intersection over Union, Structural Similarity Index, and correlation analysis. Tree-based ensemble models outperform neural-network models in reconstructing susceptibility regions and in generalizing across material domains. Principal-component analysis reveals disjoint material feature distributions, indicating that the piecewise mode structure of multipactor susceptibility is difficult to represent with a single global model and that generalization is constrained by data coverage rather than by model complexity. An exhaustive reduced-coverage study further shows that sparse material-space coverage can yield mean performance in the same general range but producing large variability in the susceptibility-region overlap. These results clarify the capabilities of ML-based surrogate models for parameter-space characterization of multipactor discharge. They also provide guidance for their appropriate use in RF system design.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Upscaling Soil Organic Carbon Measurements at the Continental Scale Using Multivariate Clustering Analysis and Machine Learning

Abstract Estimates of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are essential for many environmental applications. However, significant inconsistencies exist in SOC stock estimates for the U.S. across current SOC maps. We propose a framework that combines unsupervised multivariate geographic clustering (MGC) and supervised Random Forests regression, improving SOC maps by capturing heterogeneous relationships with SOC drivers. We first used MGC to divide the U.S. into 20 SOC regions based on the similarity of covariates (soil biogeochemical, bioclimatic, biological, and physiographic variables). Subsequently, separate Random Forests models were trained for each SOC region, utilizing environmental covariates and SOC observations. Our estimated SOC stocks for the U.S. (52.6 ± 3.2 Pg for 0–30 cm and 108.3 ± 8.2 Pg for 0–100 cm depth) were within the range estimated by existing products like Harmonized World Soil Database, HWSD (46.7 Pg for 0–30 cm and 90.7 Pg for 0–100 cm depth) and SoilGrids 2.0 (45.7 Pg for 0–30 cm and 133.0 Pg for 0–100 cm depth). However, independent validation with soil profile data from the National Ecological Observatory Network showed that our approach ( R 2 = 0.51) outperformed the estimates obtained from Harmonized World Soil Database ( R 2 = 0.23) and SoilGrids 2.0 ( R 2 = 0.39) for the topsoil (0–30 cm). Uncertainty analysis (e.g., low representativeness and high coefficients of variation) identified regions requiring more measurements, such as Alaska and the deserts of the U.S. Southwest. Our approach effectively captures the heterogeneous relationships between widely available predictors and the current SOC baseline across regions, offering reliable SOC estimates at 1 km resolution for benchmarking Earth system models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗