2026 Gas Turbines Supply Chain Workshop
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Lara-Curzio, Edgar [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000345465701)↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Bridging Fusion Energy and Fission Energy: Synergistic Supply Chains for Fuel and Materials
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Nuclear science and engineering - Nuclear fuel cyc↗
SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting
Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Optimizing Renewable Ammonia Production for a Sustainable Fertilizer Supply Chain Transition
Local renewable ammonia production using electrolytic hydrogen is an emerging approach to alleviate emissions attributed to synthetic nitrogen fertilizer production while also insulating against fluctuations in fertilizer prices and mitigating transportation costs and emissions. However, replacing ammonia currently produced using fossil fuels will not be immediate. To this end, we develop a supply chain transition model, which first optimizes the design and hourly operation of new renewable ammonia facilities to minimize production costs and then optimizes the annual installation timing, production scale, and location of these new renewable facilities along with ammonia transportation to meet county resolution demands. The objective is to augment and eventually replace conventional ammonia market imports in an economically competitive manner. We performed a case study for Minnesota's ammonia supply chain and found that a full transition to in-state renewable production by 2032 is optimal. This is incentivized by the U.S. federal government's clean hydrogen production credits. This transition results in 99 % reduction in carbon intensity along with stable supply costs below $475 per metric tonne. New renewable production facilities are an order of magnitude smaller than existing conventional plants. They use both wind and solar resources and operate dynamically to minimize expensive battery and hydrogen storage capacities.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Are There Opportunities To Re-Think How We Manufacture Synthetic Graphite?
This manuscript contributes a Viewpoint article to ACS Sustainable Resource Management and discusses the graphite supply chain, growing mismatch between graphite demand and global manufacturing capacity, current graphite manufacturing technologies, and different feedstocks.
alternative carbon feedstocks↗
BLEECAM™ (Benchmarking Life Cycle Environmental, Economic, and Social Metrics for Critical and Advanced Minerals and Materials) [SWR-25-125]
The National Laboratory of the Rockies' (NLR) Benchmarking Life Cycle Environmental, Economic, and Social Metrics for Critical and Advanced Minerals and Materials (BLEECAM™) is an open-source, integrated decision-support tool for evaluating the impacts, risks, and trade-offs across U.S. and global materials supply chains. Funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, BLEECAM supports supply chain and market analysis. The tool integrates multi-objective supply chain optimization, system dynamics, network design, lifecycle assessment, techno-economic modeling, and social impact assessment methods to evaluate how supply chains evolve over time, geography, and deployment scenarios. BLEECAM also supports analysis related to energy infrastructure, data centers and digital infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, and other sectors that depend on critical materials.
Khalifa, SherifA. [National Laboratory of the Rock↗
Co-Location of Cellulosic Bioethanol and Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) Production Facilities for Targeted Scale-Up of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Production
Achieving aerospace industry net-zero emissions by 2050 requires rapid scaling of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. Leveraging existing infrastructure, proven technologies like Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ), and low carbon intensity (CI) feedstocks (e.g., switchgrass and miscanthus) can support this transition and help achieve near-term emissions reduction targets. This study evaluates the implications of lignocellulosic ethanol biorefinery siting and integration with petroleum refineries to produce SAF across 1000 sites randomly sampled from areas suitable for perennial grasses in the U.S. rainfed region. To better understand the logistics of material transport and handoffs, we integrated models of biomass harvest, transport, ethanol, and ATJ production in a stochastic framework based on Monte Carlo simulations to characterize SAF minimum selling price (MSP) and carbon intensity (CI), considering site-specific parameters (e.g., feedstock production, transportation, taxes, incentives). The results indicate trade-offs between MSP and CI across locations, with median MSP ranging from 7.9 to 12.8 USD·gal −1 and CI from −9.7 to 39.4 gCO 2 e·MJ −1 . Despite high estimated decarbonization costs (580 USD·tonCO 2 e −1 ), our results indicate that site-specific deployment of ATJ with low-CI feedstocks can improve sustainability outcomes. The framework provides a systematic approach to assess cost and sustainability trade-offs across locations, considering the end-to-end supply chain and supporting an informed investment in SAF production.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Challenges and Prospects of Sodium‐Ion and Potassium‐Ion Batteries for Mass Production
The exponential growth of the lithium‐ion (LIB) market is causing a significant disparity between the supply chain and demand for its resources. In this regard, sodium‐ion and potassium‐ion batteries are promising alternatives to LIBs due to their low cost. However, the larger sizes of Na + and K + ions create challenges that prevent them from achieving energy densities comparable to LIBs while maintaining an acceptable cycle life. Here, in this perspective, the aim is to evaluate the status of Na‐ion and K‐ion batteries and the challenges associated with them on both fundamental and commercial levels. The focus is on the structural instability arising from phase transitions during cycling, intricate chemical degradation processes, and potential avenues for enhancing their performance with a specific goal of improving their viability for grid‐scale energy storage. Materials production and abundance limitations for the chemistries of the state‐of‐the‐art materials and account for critical parameters from both the perspective of researchers and investors are analyzed. This analysis aims to provide insights into the strategic trade‐offs required to effectively implement the technology in real‐world applications, such as grid‐scale storage and other areas. Furthermore, the utilization of metals with low or no supply‐chain problems as an important aspect of these trade‐offs is considered.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Humins-Derived Hard Carbon as a Low-Cost Material for Sodium-Ion Battery Anodes
The growing demand for sodium-ion batteries (SIBs) in grid storage underscores the need for electrode materials that balance performance and cost, including sustainable and robust carbon sources. The equitable and abundant distribution of materials for SIBs, along with their superior low-temperature performance, safety, and fast-charging capability, further distinguishes them from lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). Hard carbon (HC) is the state-of-the-art anode for SIBs, but current commercial HC production is localized mostly to one region of the world, raising concerns about supply chain vulnerability, critical material dependency, and environmental aspects. Here, the first demonstration of humins, an abundant biorefinery byproduct, as a precursor for HC anodes for sodium-ion storage is reported. Humins were carbonized at 1100 degrees C-1300 degrees C, and the resulting materials were subjected to comprehensive materials and electrochemical characterization. Among the temperatures studied, humins-derived hard carbon synthesized at 1200 degrees C delivers an initial reversible capacity 270mA h g-1 , with stable cycling performance up to 500 cycles and excellent rate capability, representing the optimal performance. This study establishes humins as a promising and low-cost carbon source that provides a route to mitigate supply chain risks and valorizes an underutilized biorefinery waste stream for high-performance SIB anodes.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
R&D GREET Battery Carbon Footprint Calculator
The Battery Carbon Footprint (CF) Calculator was developed to help U.S. battery manufacturers meet the carbon footprint reporting requirements of the EU Battery Regulation (EU) 2023/1542. The calculator incorporates several major battery carbon footprint frameworks, including the Joint Research Centre's Rules for the Calculation of the Carbon Footprint of Electric Vehicle Batteries (CFB-EV), RECHARGE's Product Environmental Footprint Category Rules for High Specific Energy Rechargeable Batteries for Mobile Applications (PEFCR), the Catena-X Product Carbon Footprint Rulebook (CX-PCF Rules), Battery Pass's Battery Carbon Footprint: Rules for Calculating the Carbon Footprint of the "Distribution" and "End-of-Life and Recycling" Life Cycle Stages, the Global Battery Alliance's Greenhouse Gas Rulebook: Generic Rules, Version 2.1, and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry's draft Carbon Footprint Calculation Method for Automotive Batteries. The tool pairs these frameworks with foreground data from Argonne's R&D GREET models and integrates user-supplied background data covering battery manufacturing and supply chain activities. By bringing multiple international methodologies together in a single platform, the calculator enables manufacturers to evaluate product carbon footprints, improve data consistency, and prepare for evolving regulatory compliance and global market reporting requirements.
Zhang, Jingyi↗
A Unified Scaling Framework for Comparative Analysis of Major Electrical Machine Topologies
This paper presents a unified framework for comparing major electrical machine topologies under identical output and thermal constraints, with emphasis on supply-chain-aware selection among rare-earth-intensive, reduced-rare-earth, and rare-earth-free solutions. Using power factor and air-gap flux density as the principal descriptors, the framework links topology choice to relative size, copper demand, magnet dependence, cost sensitivity, and inertia. To support robust early-stage screening, the deterministic scaling model is combined with uncertainty representation, Monte Carlo scenario propagation, and hesitationaware ranking. The results show that rare-earth-rich machines remain compact and dense, whereas reduced-rare-earth and rare-earth-free alternatives become more attractive under specific material-risk and cost scenarios.
Kumar, Praveen [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000291877857)↗
Influence of linkage chemistry and side-chain polarity on Ion 2 transport in click-functionalized polymerized ionic liquids.
Post-polymerization functionalization offers precise molecular weight control and enables the high-throughput investigation of structure−property relationships in polymer research. However, post-polymerization functionalization strategies often introduce additional linkage chemistry, and its role in the physical properties of polymerized ionic liquids (PILs) has yet to be explored. In this work, a series of PILs were synthesized using Cu(I)-catalyzed azide−alkyne cycloaddition (CuAAC), with comparison made to N-alkylation substitution chemistry. The triazole ring introduced by CuAAC chemistry was found to induce extensive ion aggregation and deteriorate ion transport. The impact of linkage chemistry on ion transport can be alleviated by incorporating polar ethylene glycol spacers in the side chain, achieving an ionic conductivity of 2.1 × 10−4 S/cm at 30 °C. Furthermore, the effect of polar spacer placement was explored, revealing that overall side-chain polarity, rather than polarity in the vicinity of the ionic group, governs ion aggregation and ion transport in PILs.
Shan, Naisong↗
Sequence-Structure–Property Relationships in Short-Chain Polyesters: How Primary Structure Governs Macroscopic Performance
While polymer properties are fundamentally linked to their nanostructure, the influence of monomer sequence remains less understood than stereochemical factors like tacticity. This study examines how sequence distribution affects the thermal behavior and morphology of homo- and copolyesters, specifically comparing polymers derived from constitutionally identical monomers but with varying degrees of sequence regularity depending on monomer structure or polymerization selectivity. Our findings show that increasing sequence defects progressively diminish thermal stability, crystallinity, melting temperatures, and morphological order. As new materials become more compositionally complex, this work underscores the importance of sequence control in the design of advanced polymers for emerging applications.
Bocharova, Vera [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗
List of Commercial and Advanced Developmental Niobium-Based Alloys of the Space Age
This report compiles a list of commercial and developmental niobium-based alloys developed during the Space Age (late 1950s through mid-1970s) for extreme-temperature applications, including rocket engine thrust chambers, hypersonic re-entry thermal protection systems, and space fission reactor loops. Niobium (Nb) was widely pursued because it provided the lowest density (~8.6 g/cc) among the primary refractory metals, a high melting temperature (~2470°C), exceptional low-temperature ductility, good formability, and compatibility with liquid alkali metals. An evaluation of physical metallurgy mechanisms, focusing on solid-solution strengthening via heavy refractory solutes (W, Mo, Ta), dual-purpose reactive solutes (Hf, Zr, Ti), and dispersion strengthening using carbides, nitrides, and oxides is presented. Additionally, the report compares Western and Soviet Union metallurgical approaches, explaining how supply chain factors and manufacturing infrastructure influenced element selection, interstitial chemistry, and alloy identification/naming conventions. Cataloging these historical alloy chemical compositions serves as a foundational reference for modern alloy additive manufacturing, thermodynamic CALPHAD modeling, and machine-learning discovery pipelines for next-generation extreme-environment niobium-based alloys.
Physical Metallurgy↗
Role of Amorphous Chains in Nanoplastic Formation from Semicrystalline Polymers
Semicrystalline polymers, e.g., polyethylene terephthalate (PET), release micro- (100 nm to 1 mm) and nanoplastics (up to 100 nm) [MNPL] when they are degraded under quiescent conditions. However, the exact molecular mechanisms leading to material fragmentation into MNPL are unknown. Here, we monitor the evolution of chain molecular weight and the MNPL production kinetics during hydrolysis of PET pellets. We find that only ~0.6% of the amorphous phase ester bonds are hydrolyzed at the onset of MNPL release. Then, by combining a random scission model with measured amorphous spacings, we estimate that only ~15% of the stress transmitters in the amorphous phase, namely, bridges and entangled loops, have failed by this point. Thus, spontaneous fragmentation of the semicrystalline nanostructure occurs despite significant intercrystalline connectivity. We resolve this apparent contradiction by proposing that fragmentation can only occur when progressive tie-chain scission causes the material to undergo the ductile/brittle transition. Mechanistically, we speculate that the internal stresses responsible for material fragmentation are caused by processing (i.e., residual stresses) and/or sample densification induced by chemi-crystallization. We discuss additional factors that may affect our analysis and thus require further investigation, such as skin-core effects, preferential degradation of stress transmitters and/or recrystallization processes.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Superdiffusion resilience in Heisenberg chains with two-dimensional interactions on a quantum processor
Superdiffusive spin transport in the one-dimensional (1D) Heisenberg model is a key theoretical discovery in nonequilibrium quantum many-body physics. Although extensively studied in 1D systems, the breakdown and sustenance of superdiffusion in two-dimensional (2D) lattices with integrability-breaking terms, as found in real materials, remains an open question. To address this, we develop a toy model that extends the 1D Heisenberg model with a representative set of 2D interaction types and tunable strengths. Our model exhibits varying degrees of superdiffusion breakdown depending on the interaction type, spanning ballistic to diffusive regimes. We establish and justify a hierarchy of 2D interactions based on their resilience against superdiffusion breakdown: Heisenberg >𝑋𝑋 > Ising. This precise control over the superdiffusive behavior also enables rigorous benchmarking of quantum hardware, and our simulations on IBM's Heron devices confirm the hardware's ability to accurately capture these many-body nonequilibrium phenomena. Overall, our results are relevant not only to simulating superdiffusion in real materials, such as the 1D Heisenberg compound KCuF3, which contains modest nonintegrable 2D terms, but also to extending superdiffusive behavior to larger 2D qubit lattices and other 2D materials.
Alagarsamy Manikandan, Keerthi Kumaran [ORNL]↗
A Techno-Economic Assessment of Fusion Energy System Supply and Waste Generation and How Fission Energy May Close Operational Gaps
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Nuclear science and engineering - Nuclear fuel cyc↗
Reliability Models and Demonstration of a Fault-Tolerant Motor Concept for Vertical Takeoff and Landing Vehicles
This report documents the completion of the Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology Project Annual Performance Indicator 24-3.2.4.1: “Apply and document reliability prediction for high reliability motor concept.” Two modeling tools were completed for calculation of reliability of fault-tolerant (FT) motors, and key FT operations of a modular FT motor were demonstrated experimentally. The two models are complementary tools for the stakeholder and user community. Both models employ Markov chain theory. The first model is a time-homogeneous Markov chain model, and the second is a time-inhomogeneous Markov-Weibull model. This report’s main sections are as follows: 1.0 Introduction, 2.0 Theory, 3.0 Motor Reliability Models, 4.0 Validation of FT Operation by Hardware Demonstration, and 5.0 Concluding Remarks. Novel contributions to the field include development of a modular FT motor concept for electrified vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) application, solution methods to solve the reliability calculations, development of figures of merit, and the introduction of “linked chains” to formulate a building-block approach for time-inhomogeneous Markov-Weibull modeling of motor reliability. Example case studies have been completed, and results are provided and discussed herein. A four-module FT motor concept was developed to a preliminary-design level of detail. This eVTOL FT motor concept was designed for galvanic, magnetic, and thermal isolation of stator winding faults. The reliability of the concept motor was calculated using a time-inhomogeneous Markov chain model. Employing average failure rate as a metric, 570 times greater reliability was achieved as compared to a baseline motor without fault tolerance. A demonstrator motor was built and tested. The testing demonstrated the key features of FT operation and validated the essential premises of the FT motor concepts presented herein. The experiments included successful demonstration of the feasibility of the following four key FT features: (1) terminal open-circuit operation, (2) thermal isolation after fault, (3) terminal short-circuit operation, and (4) internal short-circuit operation. These works indicate that FT modular motor drives offer promise for addressing the daunting reliability gap that electric aircraft propulsor drives are facing relative to the best conventional motor drive technology that is available today.
Electric Motor↗