Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “supply modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Analysis Framework for the Hospital Resource Supply Model for Covid-19

In March and April of 2020 there was widespread concern about availability of medical resources required to treat Covid-19 patients who become seriously ill. A simulation model of supply management was developed to aid understanding of how to best manage available supplies and channel new production. Forecasted demands for critical therapeutic resources have tremendous uncertainty, largely due to uncertainties about the number and timing of patient arrivals. It is therefore essential to evaluate any process for managing supplies in view of this uncertainty. To support such evaluations, we developed a modeling framework that would allow an integrated assessment in the context of uncertainty quantification. At the time of writing there has been no need to execute this framework because adaptations of the medical system have been able to respond effectively to the outbreak. This report documents the framework and its implemented components should need later arise for its application.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global biomass supply modeling for long-run management of the climate system

Bioenergy is projected to have a prominent, valuable, and maybe essential, role in climate management. However, there is significant variation in projected bioenergy deployment results, as well as concerns about the potential environmental and social implications of supplying biomass. Bioenergy deployment projections are market equilibrium solutions from integrated modeling, yet little is known about the underlying modeling of the supply of biomass as a feedstock for energy use in these modeling frameworks. We undertake a novel diagnostic analysis with ten global models to elucidate, compare, and assess how biomass is supplied within the models used to inform long-run climate management. With experiments that isolate and reveal biomass supply modeling behavior and characteristics (costs, emissions, land use, market effects), we learn about biomass supply tendencies and differences. The insights provide a new level of modeling transparency and understanding of estimated global biomass supplies that informs evaluation of the potential for bioenergy in managing the climate and interpretation of integrated modeling. For each model, we characterize the potential distributions of global biomass supply across regions and feedstock types for increasing levels of quantity supplied, as well as some of the potential societal externalities of supplying biomass. We also evaluate the biomass supply implications of managing these externalities. Finally, we interpret biomass market results from integrated modeling in terms of our new understanding of biomass supply. Overall, we find little consensus between models on where biomass could be cost-effectively produced and the implications. We also reveal model specific biomass supply narratives, with results providing new insights into integrated modeling bioenergy outcomes and differences. The analysis finds that many integrated models are considering and managing emissions and land use externalities of supplying biomass and estimating that environmental and societal trade-offs in the form of land emissions, land conversion, and higher agricultural prices are cost-effective, and to some degree a reality of using biomass, to address climate change.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) Model: A Geospatial Platform for Technical Potential and Supply Curve Modeling

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a platform for detailed assessment of renewable energy (RE) resources and their geospatial intersection with grid infrastructure and land use characteristics. The reV model currently supports photovoltaic (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP) and land-based wind turbine technologies. Modules in the reV framework function at different spatial and temporal resolutions, allowing for assessment of resource potential, technical potential and supply curves at varying levels of detail. The platform runs on NREL's High Performance Computing system, providing scalable and efficient performance from a single location all the way up to continental scales, for a single year or decades of time series resource data. Coupled with NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM), reV supports resource assessment from 5-minute to hourly temporal resolution and provides for analysis of long-term (i.e., year-on-year) variability of RE generation (e.g., interannual variability and exceedance probabilities). Technical potential is measured as a function of resource potential and limitations put on developable land area defined by the user. For example, the user can limit development by land ownership, terrain, land use/cover, and urban areas, as well as custom inputs. Technology, grid interconnection and operation costs, based on the latest market data and future projections, are also embedded in the model. The supply curve module is a spatial sorting algorithm based on plant siting, grid interconnection cost, and regional competition, which provides a geographically discrete estimate of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and supply (i.e., capacity) for specific renewable technologies. The reV model currently provides broad coverage across North America, South and Central Asia, South America and South Africa to inform national- and international-scale analyses as well as regional infrastructure and deployment planning.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Biofuel Infrastructure, Logistics, and Transportation (BILT) Model for Supply Chain Analysis: Documentation for BILT

The Biofuel Infrastructure, Logistics, and Transportation (BILT) model for supply chain analysis developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the US Department of Energy is an accounting and optimization model that tracks the entire biomass-to-end-use supply chain (e.g., biomass production, transportation, and processing) for potential feedstocks, pathways, and end uses. This report summarizes the development, function, and operation of the BILT model.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Renewable Energy Potential Model: Geothermal Supply Curves

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a geospatial platform for estimating technical potential and developing renewable energy supply curves, initially developed for wind and solar technologies. The model evaluates deployment constraints, considering land use, environmental, and cultural factors, and estimates the distance to existing grid features to connect future plants (Maclaurin et al., 2021). A pressing deficiency in the reV model, however, is representation of geothermal electricity generation technologies. To address this gap, we developed a novel geothermal generation module for reV that allows for representation and analysis at the same level of detail as other renewable technologies. The included paper describes our process for evaluating data sources for the modeling, and presents five preliminary reV geothermal results. More specifically, we present two sets of resource data that represent upper and lower bounds for geothermal potential. We then present several sensitivity runs using the upper bound resource data; the results are encouraging that levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be reduced by optimizing the location and estimated capacity of the spatially diverse geothermal resource while considering the distance to existing grid infrastructure. Our preliminary supply curves and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) results provided here should be considered with care due to the high uncertainty in geothermal resource potential data. We present median LCOE values for the conterminous U.S. for three scenarios: two hydrothermal (3.5km depth, USGS heat flow & SMU temperatures respectively) and one EGS (4.5km depth, SMU temperatures). The capital and operating costs for each respective technology are modeled. We also compare results using two different resource data sources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

ADAM: A web platform for graph-based modeling and optimization of supply chains

Modeling and optimization are essential tasks that arise in the analysis and design of supply chains (SCs). SC models are essential for understanding emergent behavior such as transactions between participants, inherent value of products exchanged, as well as impact of externalities (e.g., policy and climate) and of constraints. Unfortunately, most users of SC models have limited expertise in mathematical optimization, and this hinders the adoption of advanced decision-making tools. Here, in this work, we present ADAM, a web platform that enables the modeling and optimization of SCs. ADAM facilitates modeling by leveraging intuitive and compact graph-based abstractions that allow the user to express dependencies between locations, products, and participants. ADAM model objects serve as repositories of experimental, technology, and socio-economic data; moreover, the graph abstractions facilitate the organization and exchange of models and provides a natural framework for education and outreach. Here, we discuss the graph abstractions and software design principles behind ADAM, its key functional features and workflows, and application examples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Food And Agriculture Supply Chain Model

This model is part of an LDRD effort to investigate the connection of food and agriculture supply chain and the critical infrastructure. The model was built for a small number of farmers, shippers, processing companies and retailers as proof of concept to illustrate supply chain impacts. In this model, the emphasis is on understanding the climate change impacts on the food supply chain. The model uses agent-based modeling method in combination with machine learning. It also connects logistic simulation with economic principles such as price change caused by supply and demand, and consumer substitution effect based on price comparisons of two substitutable commodities.

Nguyen, Thuy↗
DOE OSTI2020

Agent-based modeling of supply disruptions in the global rare earths market

Several independent assessments have identified rare earth elements (REEs) as critical materials, notably neodymium (Nd), praseodymium (Pr), and dysprosium (Dy) used in permanent magnets. Factors affecting their criticality include expected growth in demand arising from their unique performance-enhancing properties in consumer, energy, and military applications and the supply risk associated with China's dominance in their production. We demonstrate the use of Argonne's Global Critical Materials (GCMat) agent-based model to explore the possible consequences to REE market dynamics of different types of regional supply disruptions including a temporary loss of production, shutdown of capacity, and diversion of supply. Results suggest that supply disruptions may foster earlier and more REE mine starts outside of China, although some of these mines may not be able to sustain operations post disruption. Further, price and associated market responses such as production, capacity, and demand tended to extend beyond the disruption period. Such market impacts in the magnet supply chain could affect the costs and availability of a number of emerging clean energy technology applications such as electric vehicles and wind turbines. In the future, GCMat could be used to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies - including recycling, conservation, product substitution, and diversification of supplies - on reducing the severity of disruptions in REE markets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

LANL Tritium Supply and Demand Model

The LANL Tritium Supply and Demand Model provides the capability to investigate the adequacy of future tritium supply subject to stockpile demand for variousscenarios. The tool includes the ability to change stockpile demand factors and adjust tritium production plans, while accounting for Tritium decay. The model has been used numerous times to identify potential tritium shortfalls and advocate for changes to tritium production planning and implementation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2006

Space Exploration Supply Chain Modeling, Simulation and Analysis Using the SCOR Model

sustained and affordable human and robotic program to explore the solar system and beyond. Extend human presence across the solar system, starting with a human return to the Moon by the year 2020, in preparation for human exploration of Mars and other destinations. Develop the innovative technologies, knowledge, and infrastructure both to explore and to support decisions about the destinations for human exploration; and promote international and commercial participation in exploration to further U.S. scientific, security, and economic interests

space operations↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling Cyber Supply Chain Incidents with Multilayered Graph Motifs

As noted within the literature, supply chain includes people and organizations---manufacturers, integrators, and third-party vendors---that are involved in one or more stages of a product lifecycle. Since supply chains, by definition, include organizations and people, supply chain risk management activities must consider dependencies between an organization's business processes and third-party resources. Just as adversarial tactics can be implemented via techniques implemented via networked computer systems, so can such tactics be expressed via legal business relationships. A cyber incident may have an exponential impact downstream, for example, by leveraging a product's distribution channel (e.g. malicious updates in SolarWinds, buggy updates in CrowdStrike). Similarly, legitimate and legal business relationships also affect the attack surface exposure of systems, enabling long-term persistence and/or unknown impacts to product quality that are hard to detect. This paper catalogs several recent digital supply chain incidents and applies a multilayered network formalism to develop structural indicators (graph motifs) that reflect potentially-adversarial behavior. Finally, we compare and contrast the characteristics of adversarial tactics (e.g. Loss of Availability, Data Collection) that leverage cyber-physical dependencies to those that leverage legal organizational relationships.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Resource Supply-Demand-Routing Model for the COVID-19 Crisis

As part of the Department of Energy response to the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic of 2020, a modeling effort was sponsored by the DOE Office of Science. Through this effort, an integrated planning framework was developed whose capabilities were demonstrated with the combination of a treatment resource demand model and an optimization model for routing supplies. This report documents this framework and models, and an application involving ventilator demands and supplies in the continental United States. The goal of this application is to test the feasibility of implementing nationwide ventilator sharing in response to the COVID-19 crisis. Multiple scenarios were run using different combinations of forecasted and observed patient streams, and it is demonstrated that using a "worst-case forecast for planning may be preferable to best mitigate supply-demand risks in an uncertain future. There is also a brief discussion of model uncertainty and its implications for the results.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2001

Calibration of Gyros with Temperature Dependent Scale Factors

The general problem of gyro calibration can be stated as the estimation of the scale factors, misalignments, and drift-rate biases of the gyro using the on-orbit sensor measurements. These gyro parameters have been traditionally treated as temperature-independent in the operational flight dynamics ground systems at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), a scenario which has been successfully applied in the gyro calibration of a large number of missions. A significant departure from this is the Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP) mission where, due to the high thermal variations expected during the mission phase, it is necessary to model the scale factors as functions of temperature. This paper addresses the issue of gyro calibration for the MAP gyro model using a manufacturer-supplied model of the variation of scale factors with temperature. The problem is formulated as a least squares problem and solved using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm in the MATLAB(R) library function NLSQ. The algorithm was tested on simulated data with Gaussian noise for the quaternions as well as the gyro rates and was found to consistently converge close to the true values. Significant improvement in accuracy was noticed due to the estimation of the temperature-dependent scale factors as against constant scale factors.

Belur, Sheela V.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Grey Zone Test Range Social Model

The Grey Zone Test Range (GZTR) social model operates as a piece of the overall GZTR modeling effort. It works in conjunction with supply models for resources, an electric grid model for power availability, and a traffic model for road congestion, as well as a general controller framework that allows external system effects. The social model functions as an aggregate model where the entire population of the city is divided into groups based on the Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZs), a common geospatial boundary present in all GZTR models. These groups will act as a singular community; each time step the state of the system around them will be assessed and then community will come up with a general plan of action that they will attempt to follow for the day. Additionally, they will track values for their general emotional state and memory about negative impacts in the near past.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2004

Characteristics and Global Impact of Aerosols from Southern Africa and Eastern Asia

Supported mainly by the NASA GACP and ACMAP, we have made significant progress in the global modeling of tropospheric aerosols and their precursors in the past few years, especially in the development of the GOCART model, simulation of anthropogenic and natural aerosols, data analysis of field observations and satellite retrievals, assessment of global and regional budgets, estimate of aerosol direct radiative forcing, and aerosol forecasting and data analysis for the ACE-Asia field experiment. Our results and findings are summarized in Chin et al. Model calculated multiple-year optical thickness for individual and total aerosols are at internet. These results have been frequently used by other groups, for example, to impose initial conditions for regional models, provide dust source functions for other global models, supply aerosol fields for chemistry and climate models, help data group interpret their measurements, select monitoring sites for ground observation network, and assist satellite retrievals.

Chin, Mian↗
NASA NTRS1928

Tests on Models of Three British Airplanes in the Variable Density Wind Tunnel

This report contains the results of tests made in the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics variable density wind tunnel on three airplane models supplied by the British Aeronautical Research Committee. These models, the BE-2E with R.A.F. 19 wings, the British Fighter with R.A.F. 15 wings, and the Bristol Fighter with R.A.F. 30 wings, were tested over a wide range in Reynolds numbers in order to supply data desired by the Aeronautical Research Committee for scale effect studies. The maximum lifts obtained in these tests are in excellent agreement with the published results of British tests, both model and full scale. No attempt is made to compare drag data, owing to the emission of tail surfaces, radiator, etc., from the model, but is shown that the scale effect observed on the drag coefficients in these tests is due to a large extent to the parts of the models other than the wings. (author)

Higgins, George J↗
DOE OSTI2021

High Voltage Multiplier: A New, Compact Design using SiC High Frequency MOSFETs

In this report, power supply models for particle accelerators are examined and electrical equivalent model for a high-voltage multiplier power supply is developed. The ultimate goal is to provide the blue prints for the realization of real world models to power both the electrical and magnetic dipoles that make up the key components of the typical particle accelerator assembly.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensor Selection for MIMO Vibration [Slides]

Objectives: Introduce a sensor selection approach to assist test engineers with MIMO test design. Demonstrate the capability of the approach. Approach: Define a desired response from a field model. Supply the sensor selection technique to two lab models, with different boundary conditions than the “field” model. Compare the laboratory response to the field response using sensors selected from the approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗